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Julio's Home/Road Splits (1 Viewer)

Raider Nation

Devil's Advocate
3 HOME GAMES

DENVER - 4 / 14 / 0

CAROLINA - 1 / 30 / 0

OAKLAND - 4 / 63 / 0

4 ROAD GAMES

@KC - 6 / 108 / 2

@SD - 5 / 67 / 1

@WAS - 10 / 94 / 1

@PHI - 5 / 123 / 1

Seven games seems to be a big enough sample size for this to not be a coincidence. Could the Falcons actually be more conscious of getting the ball to Julio on the road for some reason, or is it truly just one of those statistical anomalies which will balance out in the coming weeks?

 
It is an anomaly. Pay no attention to it and it is 7 games and that isn't even a big enough sample size. You could argue that 4 for 63 isn't a horrible game it just isn't a stud like game. You can also argue that the Broncos had just seen what he did to the Chiefs the week before and weren't going to allow that, then they were up 27 - 7 and were running a lot to end the game before Manning made a it close.

 
Splits from last year (courtesy of shadyridr)

Home:

2-29-0

1-16-0

2-9-0

0-0-0

5-85-1

4-76-2

Road:

5-71-0

6-115-0

11-127-0

3-131-2

4-68-0

3-104-2

8-128-1

 
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Splits from last year (courtesy of shadyridr)Home:2-29-01-16-02-9-00-0-05-85-14-76-2Road:5-71-06-115-011-127-03-131-24-68-03-104-28-128-1
How many of those games did he leave early last year? I seem to recall him leaving 2 or 3 games early with a hammy. I also don't like to look at rookie trends too much in any sport, a good example is Justin Verlander. I remember hearing all postseason long how Verlander struggles in the postseason but his first 4 starts were in 2006 when he was a rookie and he was 1 - 2 with nearly a 6.00 ERA, then last year in the playoffs he had a start where the rain cut him short and he pitched 1 inning and gave up 1 run so his ERA was 9. He also had a game cut short because of rain against Texas. All he did this year was go 3 - 1 with an ERA of about 2.25 (yes he sucked his last game) Julio will be just fine, don't bench him because he is playing at home.
 
This split has a good chance to be further corroborated.

His next two at home: DAL & ARI- solid pass Ds.

Next two on the road: @NO and @TB - not so solid pass Ds

 
This split has a good chance to be further corroborated. His next two at home: DAL & ARI- solid pass Ds. Next two on the road: @NO and @TB - not so solid pass Ds
I think Atlanta's passing game is at a point where there is no defensive match up in the league that is overly-worrying.
 
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This split has a good chance to be further corroborated. His next two at home: DAL & ARI- solid pass Ds. Next two on the road: @NO and @TB - not so solid pass Ds
I think Atlanta's passing game is at a point where there is no defensive match up in the league that is overly-worrying.
True. I'm not so sure Julio's home/away split is so much about the venue as it is the particular opponent the Falcons were playing that week. I went back and reviewed lots of preseason write ups (even this site's overvalued WRs article) and so many had Roddy and Gonzo becoming much less involved and Julio being THE man in Atlanta. Obviously that hasn't happened this year (maybe next, esp. in Gonzo's case if he sticks around). I think the biggest reason for Julio's ups and downs is game planning and game flow; Ryan goes with whichever terrific option out of Roddy, Julio, or Gonzo that's clicking. If you look at the targets for all 3, they're almost identical.
 
Last year Julio got hurt early in a few games at home (played one or two series and left). Towards the end of the season he came on, he had 2 TD's in the first quarter against the Bucs in the last game at home last year but since the Falcons wrapped up the #5 seed, they just benched him the rest of the game.

 

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