Julius Jones- 2005 version of Willie Green? (1 Viewer)

[Patoons]

As for my modest un-exaggerated projections I'll say JJ averages 12 points a game from here on out. Which will put him 15 points ahead of where Dunn finished last year at 26th.

I am not making a fantasy comparison. TD's are a mask that hide ineffective ball carriers. 1 or 2 one yard TD's can make a guy look like a solid back any given week, but a coach could care less about the 1 yard TD runs if the player's ineffective and they have a capable guy to bring in and take some of his time.The Dunn comparison is somewhat of a stretch IMO. Dunn is vultured, like Jones at this point, but Dunn is far more effective and productive in the yardage area. If Jones was vultured in those first 5 games, like he will the rest of the season, JJ's production doesn't fcome as close as it appears. Early in the season, JJ was carried by his 3 TD's in his first 5 games which made him an "effective" #2 RB.

JJ just hasn't been dominant and you have to wonder given last week's peformance if Barber is going to be given increased time.

As far as the LT comment goes, Philly had two weeks to prepare for him and publicly stated they would be out to stop him and let Brees try to beat him. I don't believe that was the case with JJ or any other RB they've faced this season as many teams have had success against them.

The LT comment is not for this season. It WAS FOR THE YEAR 2000 BREAKOUT SEASON. People on this board were trashing LT because he had a few down games. The POINT is that people are being pre-mature on JJ!If you can't get the Dunn comparison you might as well give up on FF.

The LT comment wasn't referring to you, but OZ. He made a post about the Philly game. And to begin with, to compare LT to JJ is an atrocious comparison.I don't get the Dunn comparison, because Dunn is far more efficient as I stated above.

Your comments to "quit FF" are adding nothing of substance to further convince me that the Dunn comparison is accurate. I'd like to see the PPG comparison after JJ has been back with Barber as a vulture. Bet it differs by around 5 PPG.

 

[Bigtime]

JJ looking good with 16 Fantasy points vs. NYG!

 

[Your Mom's]

JJ looking good with 16 Fantasy points vs. NYG!

And with NO offensive line as well as against a tough NY defense.Where is all the Barber talk now?

 

[Marc Levin]

Through week 12 he is not looking as hot as he was touted throughout the summer on these boards.

His YPC for the year is 3.5 ypc and has yet to break 100 yds despite having 20+ carries in 6 games. 

Ironically enough, Willie Green averaged 3.9 ypc before going out for the year around week 7.

Thus far, these guys look similar and it appears that Marion Barber is taking a role on the 'boys similar to what Suggs did. 

The games I've watched, he has not impressed me at all (which truthfully is 4 games, but nonetheless, I was unimpressed).

Jones = 2005 version of Willie Green

Julius does not look the part of a stud RB. He is quick and elusive, but just doesn't seem to have the "IT" to be a stud.

He is a slasher, and not anywhere near as good at north-south running (another reason not to draw an analogy to W Green).I am not sure whether he has "it" to be a stud, either - and a lot of that has to do with the OL play and Parcells' willingness to alternate series with Barber. barber doesn't look like a stud either.

If you look back to my initial posts back in June I'm drawing the analogy from the performance of both Green and Jones and not based on their styles. Both had phenomenal 2nd halves to their rookie seasons and had tremendous hype that following summer. Both also faced mediocre defenses in that second half. The next comparison was that Parcells, like Davis, drafted another RB the following year, which lead me to believe that Parcells must not be all that confident in Jones' ability.

This is where the comparison lies. I was saying that the hype was unwarranted back in the summer and that he would not perform close to his high expectations that many had around here.

You have to be careful about every second half RB wonder in the following year - I understood your point - which was why I said originally that you might as well say "or Kevin Jones 2005" - by your analogy above, Kevin Jones got WAY more undeserved hype than JJones.

 

[cstu]

Through week 12 he is not looking as hot as he was touted throughout the summer on these boards.

His YPC for the year is 3.5 ypc and has yet to break 100 yds despite having 20+ carries in 6 games.

Ironically enough, Willie Green averaged 3.9 ypc before going out for the year around week 7.

Thus far, these guys look similar and it appears that Marion Barber is taking a role on the 'boys similar to what Suggs did.

The games I've watched, he has not impressed me at all (which truthfully is 4 games, but nonetheless, I was unimpressed).

Jones = 2005 version of Willie Green

Julius does not look the part of a stud RB. He is quick and elusive, but just doesn't seem to have the "IT" to be a stud.

He is a slasher, and not anywhere near as good at north-south running (another reason not to draw an analogy to W Green).I am not sure whether he has "it" to be a stud, either - and a lot of that has to do with the OL play and Parcells' willingness to alternate series with Barber. barber doesn't look like a stud either.

If you look back to my initial posts back in June I'm drawing the analogy from the performance of both Green and Jones and not based on their styles. Both had phenomenal 2nd halves to their rookie seasons and had tremendous hype that following summer. Both also faced mediocre defenses in that second half. The next comparison was that Parcells, like Davis, drafted another RB the following year, which lead me to believe that Parcells must not be all that confident in Jones' ability.

This is where the comparison lies. I was saying that the hype was unwarranted back in the summer and that he would not perform close to his high expectations that many had around here.

You have to be careful about every second half RB wonder in the following year - I understood your point - which was why I said originally that you might as well say "or Kevin Jones 2005" - by your analogy above, Kevin Jones got WAY more undeserved hype than JJones.

At least KJ rushed for over 1000 yards with a 4.7 YPC. Most people assumed he would continue to get carries like he did the second half of last year. JJ was also hyped because he was expected to get the ball 20+ times a game.

 

[CrossEyed]

JJ looking good with 16 Fantasy points vs. NYG!

So can you consistently count on 9 receptions from JJ? I think not.

 

[Bigtime]

JJ looking good with 16 Fantasy points vs. NYG!

So can you consistently count on 9 receptions from JJ? I think not.

Nobody ever said to count on 9 receptions. I said count on an average of 12 points per game from here on out. I don't really care if he gets his points running or receiving.

 

[Marc Levin]

JJ looking good with 16 Fantasy points vs. NYG!

So can you consistently count on 9 receptions from JJ? I think not.

Nobody ever said to count on 9 receptions. I said count on an average of 12 points per game from here on out. I don't really care if he gets his points running or receiving.

I actually strongly agree with this - now that he's had a few games back from injury, I believe he will average around 12 standard FF points every week - and that we will CERTAINLY see at least those 12 points this week, @ home, after a big divisional loss, against KC.

 

[-OZ-]

Bottom line JJ is more like Warrick Dunn than he will ever resemble Willie Green.

Ok, so you won me over this week.

 

[Marc Levin]

I third that one.In short, the Willie Green analogy makes zero sense to me except that they are both currently active NFL players and they both had poor starts to year 2 after tearing up the league in the second half of year 1.

 

[Patoons]

I third that one.

In short, the Willie Green analogy makes zero sense to me except that they are both currently active NFL players and they both had poor starts to year 2 after tearing up the league in the second half of year 1.

Yes, the performance aspect was the comparison. Great second half of their rookie seasons. And I was saying that he was seriously overrated. I was also saying that Barber = Suggs since both were drafted the year after each respectives great second half. And now, they both have had pedestrian 2nd years.As noted in several previous posts within this thread, there was no comparison to running styles.

 

[CrossEyed]

JJ looking good with 16 Fantasy points vs. NYG!

So can you consistently count on 9 receptions from JJ? I think not.

Nobody ever said to count on 9 receptions. I said count on an average of 12 points per game from here on out. I don't really care if he gets his points running or receiving.

I wouldn't want to be counting on him in the FF playoffs weeks 15 & 16. At Washington and at Carolina. Not exactly favorable matchups.

 

[Marc Levin]

I third that one.

In short, the Willie Green analogy makes zero sense to me except that they are both currently active NFL players and they both had poor starts to year 2 after tearing up the league in the second half of year 1.

Yes, the performance aspect was the comparison. Great second half of their rookie seasons. And I was saying that he was seriously overrated. I was also saying that Barber = Suggs since both were drafted the year after each respectives great second half. And now, they both have had pedestrian 2nd years.As noted in several previous posts within this thread, there was no comparison to running styles.

Again, like I said, then why isn't this just as validly a "Kevin Jones = Willie Green" thread?

 

[Marc Levin]

I third that one.

In short, the Willie Green analogy makes zero sense to me except that they are both currently active NFL players and they both had poor starts to year 2 after tearing up the league in the second half of year 1.

Yes, the performance aspect was the comparison. Great second half of their rookie seasons. And I was saying that he was seriously overrated. I was also saying that Barber = Suggs since both were drafted the year after each respectives great second half. And now, they both have had pedestrian 2nd years.As noted in several previous posts within this thread, there was no comparison to running styles.

or to their situations - or, for that matter, to their performances in year 2.

 

[Patoons]

I third that one.

In short, the Willie Green analogy makes zero sense to me except that they are both currently active NFL players and they both had poor starts to year 2 after tearing up the league in the second half of year 1.

Yes, the performance aspect was the comparison. Great second half of their rookie seasons. And I was saying that he was seriously overrated. I was also saying that Barber = Suggs since both were drafted the year after each respectives great second half. And now, they both have had pedestrian 2nd years.As noted in several previous posts within this thread, there was no comparison to running styles.

or to their situations - or, for that matter, to their performances in year 2.

How are their performances not similar in year 2? Very similar ypc 3.6 vs. 3.5... Both very unimpressive in their 2nd year. Willie had the domestic violence deal which shortened his season, Julius had the injury shorten his 2nd year.I also don't know that I agree on their situations- This past week was the first week that Jones basically had sole possession of the RB job since returning from the injury.

I don't see how you can deny the fact that Jones and Green have sub-par 2nd years after blowing up the second half of their rookie year? Jones has done very little to impress and is STILL yet to break 100 yards after having several games with 20+ carries, including yesterday.

JJ was also completely foolish on that last drive yesterday, failing to get out of bounds 2 times... Parcells was flipping.. this could affect things next week

 

[Patoons]

I third that one.

In short, the Willie Green analogy makes zero sense to me except that they are both currently active NFL players and they both had poor starts to year 2 after tearing up the league in the second half of year 1.

Yes, the performance aspect was the comparison. Great second half of their rookie seasons. And I was saying that he was seriously overrated. I was also saying that Barber = Suggs since both were drafted the year after each respectives great second half. And now, they both have had pedestrian 2nd years.As noted in several previous posts within this thread, there was no comparison to running styles.

Again, like I said, then why isn't this just as validly a "Kevin Jones = Willie Green" thread?

I suppose it could, except KJ has been given much less of an opportunity than JJ has as far as carries go. Yes, he hasn't lived up to expectations, I agree. Only 4 games of 5 has he had more than 15 carries, with three over 20. On the other hand, Julius has had 7 games with 20+ carries and one under 15 and this is with him being held out of several games.

I was not impressed much with Julius, which is why I made the original post comparing him with Green. This place was crawling with JJ supporters all summer long.

 

[Bigtime]

Ok Patoons we get it. You are not impressed with JJ. I guess you don't like WESTY either because he doesn't crack a C-note running on a regular basis.

 

[Bigtime]

JJ looking good with 16 Fantasy points vs. NYG!

So can you consistently count on 9 receptions from JJ? I think not.

Nobody ever said to count on 9 receptions. I said count on an average of 12 points per game from here on out. I don't really care if he gets his points running or receiving.

I wouldn't want to be counting on him in the FF playoffs weeks 15 & 16. At Washington and at Carolina. Not exactly favorable matchups.

You mean that Washington Redskin D that gave up OVER 200 rushing yards to Tiki Barber resulting in Tiki's best day ever as a pro? Rookie RB Ronnie Brown dropped 132 yards and a TD on Carolina early this year. Yeah, who in their right mind would want to start a young speedy RB against them?

 

[Bigtime]

JJ looking good with 16 Fantasy points vs. NYG!

So can you consistently count on 9 receptions from JJ? I think not.

Nobody ever said to count on 9 receptions. I said count on an average of 12 points per game from here on out. I don't really care if he gets his points running or receiving.

Averaging 15.5 a game for the last four games!!!

 

[Raiders Fan]

JJ looking good with 16 Fantasy points vs. NYG!

So can you consistently count on 9 receptions from JJ? I think not.

Nobody ever said to count on 9 receptions. I said count on an average of 12 points per game from here on out. I don't really care if he gets his points running or receiving.

Averaging 15.5 a game for the last four games!!!

GET REAL!!! I swear the guy is a dud has 1 great week and you some how avg that out over the weeks to make him look good.

What was it PRIOR to this week?? That will tell you how useful he has been..

EDIT: This was the worst bump up to act like you are right that I have seen in a while..

 

[Patoons]

JJ looking good with 16 Fantasy points vs. NYG!

So can you consistently count on 9 receptions from JJ? I think not.

Nobody ever said to count on 9 receptions. I said count on an average of 12 points per game from here on out. I don't really care if he gets his points running or receiving.

Averaging 15.5 a game for the last four games!!!

GET REAL!!! I swear the guy is a dud has 1 great week and you some how avg that out over the weeks to make him look good.

What was it PRIOR to this week?? That will tell you how useful he has been..

EDIT: This was the worst bump up to act like you are right that I have seen in a while..

1st 100 yard game in 16 games and first TD since week 3... STUD.

 

[Raiders Fan]

JJ looking good with 16 Fantasy points vs. NYG!

So can you consistently count on 9 receptions from JJ? I think not.

Nobody ever said to count on 9 receptions. I said count on an average of 12 points per game from here on out. I don't really care if he gets his points running or receiving.

Averaging 15.5 a game for the last four games!!!

GET REAL!!! I swear the guy is a dud has 1 great week and you some how avg that out over the weeks to make him look good.

What was it PRIOR to this week?? That will tell you how useful he has been..

EDIT: This was the worst bump up to act like you are right that I have seen in a while..

1st 100 yard game in 16 games and first TD since week 3... STUD.

HJEHEHE I get a kick out of it when a guy going into the week has 764 yards and being pimped..

 

[Bigtime]

JJ looking good with 16 Fantasy points vs. NYG!

So can you consistently count on 9 receptions from JJ? I think not.

Nobody ever said to count on 9 receptions. I said count on an average of 12 points per game from here on out. I don't really care if he gets his points running or receiving.

Averaging 15.5 a game for the last four games!!!

GET REAL!!! I swear the guy is a dud has 1 great week and you some how avg that out over the weeks to make him look good.

What was it PRIOR to this week?? That will tell you how useful he has been..

EDIT: This was the worst bump up to act like you are right that I have seen in a while..

I AM right. Whether you like it or not JJ is NOT a dud. He has proven that when healthy he can be an elite back.

 

[Bigtime]

JJ looking good with 16 Fantasy points vs. NYG!

So can you consistently count on 9 receptions from JJ? I think not.

Nobody ever said to count on 9 receptions. I said count on an average of 12 points per game from here on out. I don't really care if he gets his points running or receiving.

Averaging 15.5 a game for the last four games!!!

GET REAL!!! I swear the guy is a dud has 1 great week and you some how avg that out over the weeks to make him look good.

What was it PRIOR to this week?? That will tell you how useful he has been..

EDIT: This was the worst bump up to act like you are right that I have seen in a while..

1st 100 yard game in 16 games and first TD since week 3... STUD.

Yeah, your right JJ has never had multiple scores and over 100 total yards in a game in his NFL career. What was I thinking? He's exactly like Willie Green!

 

[Bigtime]

JJ looking good with 16 Fantasy points vs. NYG!

So can you consistently count on 9 receptions from JJ? I think not.

Nobody ever said to count on 9 receptions. I said count on an average of 12 points per game from here on out. I don't really care if he gets his points running or receiving.

Averaging 15.5 a game for the last four games!!!

GET REAL!!! I swear the guy is a dud has 1 great week and you some how avg that out over the weeks to make him look good.

What was it PRIOR to this week?? That will tell you how useful he has been..

EDIT: This was the worst bump up to act like you are right that I have seen in a while..

I AM right. Whether you like it or not JJ is NOT a dud. He has proven that when healthy he can be an elite back.

I don't have to try to make him look good. You are showing your immaturity by remaining in denial rather than admitting JJ is a stud in the making. He's only a 2nd year guy with a patchwork O-line.How about these stats.

2005

JJ has 958 total rushing yards in the 11 games he played in. I left out the receptions. The Average for all other NFL backs is 881 over FIFTEEN games.

He currently averages 4 yards a carry over the aforementioned 11 games in 2005. He's averaging 80 yards rushing per game. The NFL average is 65 yards per game.

Keep your heads in the sand. A real man admits when he was wrong.

 

[Raiders Fan]

JJ looking good with 16 Fantasy points vs. NYG!

So can you consistently count on 9 receptions from JJ? I think not.

Nobody ever said to count on 9 receptions. I said count on an average of 12 points per game from here on out. I don't really care if he gets his points running or receiving.

Averaging 15.5 a game for the last four games!!!

GET REAL!!! I swear the guy is a dud has 1 great week and you some how avg that out over the weeks to make him look good.

What was it PRIOR to this week?? That will tell you how useful he has been..

EDIT: This was the worst bump up to act like you are right that I have seen in a while..

I AM right. Whether you like it or not JJ is NOT a dud. He has proven that when healthy he can be an elite back.

I don't have to try to make him look good. You are showing your immaturity by remaining in denial rather than admitting JJ is a stud in the making. He's only a 2nd year guy with a patchwork O-line.How about these stats.

2005

JJ has 958 total rushing yards in the 11 games he played in. I left out the receptions. The Average for all other NFL backs is 881 over FIFTEEN games.

He currently averages 4 yards a carry over the aforementioned 11 games in 2005. He's averaging 80 yards rushing per game. The NFL average is 65 yards per game.

Keep your heads in the sand. A real man admits when he was wrong.

HE HAD 764 RUSHING YARDS GOING INTO WEEK 16 AND 3TDS.. WTF are you talking about.. He was taken around round 2 and is a BUST.. Go push your pimping crap somewhere else.. Before this week his rushing avg is 3.7YPC.. GET YOUR HEAD OUT OF THE FAIRY WORLD AND LOOK..

 

[Bigtime]

How convenient to leave out his best game! Keep justifying your baseless opinion.Next you'll be telling me the Raiders are a GOOD team.

 

[Raiders Fan]

How convenient to leave out his best game! Keep justifying your baseless opinion.

Next you'll be telling me the Raiders are a GOOD team.

No your only trying to pimp you were right based on 1 game that saved ANY kind of avg. What about the weeks before?? They mean nothing when you avg it out? In fantasy land its not about AVG its about week to week.. I can tell you since week 3 JJ has been almost useless until this week. Week 13 was his best week since week 3.. I bet you a lot of JJ owners didn't make playoffs in redraft leagues.

 

[Bigtime]

Hey, I never said he didn't cost some guys alot more than he was worth this year. The title of this thread was he's willie green.As, a dynasty owner I said he's not Willie Green and that he would average 12 points a game from week 12 on out. He has outperformed my expectations.I would not label him a bust due to his injury. You can't predict injuries and they're part of the game.Bottom line is dynasty owners can breathe easy. He doesn't have a talent problem. Anyone arguing he's a bust like Willie Green is just plain wrong. JJ will get stronger as he gets older just like his brother TJ.

 

[Raiders Fan]

Hey, I never said he didn't cost some guys alot more than he was worth this year. The title of this thread was he's willie green.

As, a dynasty owner I said he's not Willie Green and that he would average 12 points a game from week 12 on out. He has outperformed my expectations.

I would not label him a bust due to his injury. You can't predict injuries and they're part of the game.

Bottom line is dynasty owners can breathe easy. He doesn't have a talent problem. Anyone arguing he's a bust like Willie Green is just plain wrong. JJ will get stronger as he gets older just like his brother TJ.

But the title reads. Julius Jones- 2005 version of Willie Green?

Not career.. 2005!! He is this eyar so the thread topic is correct.. Not Dynasty or future..

 

[Bigtime]

The original title was changed.It still holds true either way. JJ is leaps and bounds better than Willie Green could ever dream of being. 2005 and before and after.

 

[Otis]

JJ looking good with 16 Fantasy points vs. NYG!

So can you consistently count on 9 receptions from JJ? I think not.

Nobody ever said to count on 9 receptions. I said count on an average of 12 points per game from here on out. I don't really care if he gets his points running or receiving.

Averaging 15.5 a game for the last four games!!!

GET REAL!!! I swear the guy is a dud has 1 great week and you some how avg that out over the weeks to make him look good.

What was it PRIOR to this week?? That will tell you how useful he has been..

EDIT: This was the worst bump up to act like you are right that I have seen in a while..

I AM right. Whether you like it or not JJ is NOT a dud. He has proven that when healthy he can be an elite back.

I don't have to try to make him look good. You are showing your immaturity by remaining in denial rather than admitting JJ is a stud in the making. He's only a 2nd year guy with a patchwork O-line.How about these stats.

2005

JJ has 958 total rushing yards in the 11 games he played in. I left out the receptions. The Average for all other NFL backs is 881 over FIFTEEN games.

He currently averages 4 yards a carry over the aforementioned 11 games in 2005. He's averaging 80 yards rushing per game. The NFL average is 65 yards per game.

Keep your heads in the sand. A real man admits when he was wrong.

Good points. So he's a slightly above-average NFL back.

 

[Bigtime]

JJ looking good with 16 Fantasy points vs. NYG!

So can you consistently count on 9 receptions from JJ? I think not.

Nobody ever said to count on 9 receptions. I said count on an average of 12 points per game from here on out. I don't really care if he gets his points running or receiving.

Averaging 15.5 a game for the last four games!!!

GET REAL!!! I swear the guy is a dud has 1 great week and you some how avg that out over the weeks to make him look good.

What was it PRIOR to this week?? That will tell you how useful he has been..

EDIT: This was the worst bump up to act like you are right that I have seen in a while..

I AM right. Whether you like it or not JJ is NOT a dud. He has proven that when healthy he can be an elite back.

I don't have to try to make him look good. You are showing your immaturity by remaining in denial rather than admitting JJ is a stud in the making. He's only a 2nd year guy with a patchwork O-line.How about these stats.

2005

JJ has 958 total rushing yards in the 11 games he played in. I left out the receptions. The Average for all other NFL backs is 881 over FIFTEEN games.

He currently averages 4 yards a carry over the aforementioned 11 games in 2005. He's averaging 80 yards rushing per game. The NFL average is 65 yards per game.

Keep your heads in the sand. A real man admits when he was wrong.

Good points. So he's a slightly above-average NFL back.

Uh, last time I checked 958 yards in 11 games is significantly better than average and border line elite. Nice try though.

 

[BGP]

Let's try to explain the reason William Green is even being mentioned in conjunction with Julius Jones.

In 2002, William Green ended the year with 834 total yards and 5 TD over his last 7 games.

In 2004, Julius Jones ended the year with 898 total yards and 7 TD over his last 7 games.

THAT'S where the similartity is been drawn.

AFTER that hot finish, Green was getting draft in the Top 15-20 in many drafts for 2003. In that year, Green went on to average 87 yards per game but had just one TD in 7 games.

So the question is whether Jones will also fail to live up to his expectations for 2005.

I haven't read most of this thread but this seems to be a fairly accurate representation of what we in fact DO have with Julius Jones. I said in this thread he is sort of an upper second round talent, and I think that has proven to be the case. Second-round RBs are those RBs who seem to have locked down a starting job but have serious questions surrounding them. And yes, we had serious questions surrounding Julius Jones.

Entering 2005 he had not put up elite RB numbers for even one full season

He had injury problems.
He had not ever played a full 16 games in the NFLThose are red flags that move an RB into the second round. Its a round of high-risk RBs. You don't draft the #15 RB expecting #15 RB numbers, you are likely looking at an RB that if things go well he finishes top 8 and there is significant risk of him just being a total bust.

This is opposed to a true first-round RB. This type of RB is a guy that has very little questions surrounding him at all. He's had huge years in the past. He's not too old. The team is good. By and large you are expecting a top 10 season or higher. Its just 2-3 of those guys will have star-crossed seasons and you don't know which one it will be. But often there's no specific reason to predict it - not like your typical second-round RBs.

 

[Bigtime]

Let's try to explain the reason William Green is even being mentioned in conjunction with Julius Jones.

In 2002, William Green ended the year with 834 total yards and 5 TD over his last 7 games.

In 2004, Julius Jones ended the year with 898 total yards and 7 TD over his last 7 games.

THAT'S where the similartity is been drawn.

AFTER that hot finish, Green was getting draft in the Top 15-20 in many drafts for 2003.  In that year, Green went on to average 87 yards per game but had just one TD in 7 games.

So the question is whether Jones will also fail to live up to his expectations for 2005.

I haven't read most of this thread but this seems to be a fairly accurate representation of what we in fact DO have with Julius Jones. I said in this thread he is sort of an upper second round talent, and I think that has proven to be the case. Second-round RBs are those RBs who seem to have locked down a starting job but have serious questions surrounding them. And yes, we had serious questions surrounding Julius Jones.

Entering 2005 he had not put up elite RB numbers for even one full season

He had injury problems.
He had not ever played a full 16 games in the NFLThose are red flags that move an RB into the second round. Its a round of high-risk RBs. You don't draft the #15 RB expecting #15 RB numbers, you are likely looking at an RB that if things go well he finishes top 8 and there is significant risk of him just being a total bust.

This is opposed to a true first-round RB. This type of RB is a guy that has very little questions surrounding him at all. He's had huge years in the past. He's not too old. The team is good. By and large you are expecting a top 10 season or higher. Its just 2-3 of those guys will have star-crossed seasons and you don't know which one it will be. But often there's no specific reason to predict it - not like your typical second-round RBs.

I would agree with BGP. I could see him being an upper tier 2nd rounder next year too.

 

[WarRedbirds]

Uh, last time I checked 958 yards in 11 games is significantly better than average and border line elite. Nice try though.

Sorry to bring you back to reality, but these are not borderline elite fantasy numbers, and I'd argue they aren't even significantly better than average:Using decimal scoring:

0-5 points: 2 times

5-10 points: 5 times

10-15 points: 1 time

15-20 points: 2 times

20 + points: 2 times

That's 7 times out of 12 games he was under 10 points.

By the way, he's played in 12 games, not 11.

 

[Bigtime]

Uh, last time I checked 958 yards in 11 games is significantly better than average and border line elite. Nice try though.

Sorry to bring you back to reality, but these are not borderline elite fantasy numbers, and I'd argue they aren't even significantly better than average:Using decimal scoring:

0-5 points: 2 times

5-10 points: 5 times

10-15 points: 1 time

15-20 points: 2 times

20 + points: 2 times

That's 7 times out of 12 games he was under 10 points.

By the way, he's played in 12 games, not 11.

Sure lets count the time he was in for one play and benched because his ankle was still sore.Even if you use 12 games he still averaged 80 yards per game. LT2 averaged 91.5 this season. 80 is a lot closer to the elite than the 65 an average back gets.

Nice try though.

 

[BGP]

Let's try to explain the reason William Green is even being mentioned in conjunction with Julius Jones.

In 2002, William Green ended the year with 834 total yards and 5 TD over his last 7 games.

In 2004, Julius Jones ended the year with 898 total yards and 7 TD over his last 7 games.

THAT'S where the similartity is been drawn.

AFTER that hot finish, Green was getting draft in the Top 15-20 in many drafts for 2003.  In that year, Green went on to average 87 yards per game but had just one TD in 7 games.

So the question is whether Jones will also fail to live up to his expectations for 2005.

I haven't read most of this thread but this seems to be a fairly accurate representation of what we in fact DO have with Julius Jones. I said in this thread he is sort of an upper second round talent, and I think that has proven to be the case. Second-round RBs are those RBs who seem to have locked down a starting job but have serious questions surrounding them. And yes, we had serious questions surrounding Julius Jones.

Entering 2005 he had not put up elite RB numbers for even one full season

He had injury problems.
He had not ever played a full 16 games in the NFLThose are red flags that move an RB into the second round. Its a round of high-risk RBs. You don't draft the #15 RB expecting #15 RB numbers, you are likely looking at an RB that if things go well he finishes top 8 and there is significant risk of him just being a total bust.

This is opposed to a true first-round RB. This type of RB is a guy that has very little questions surrounding him at all. He's had huge years in the past. He's not too old. The team is good. By and large you are expecting a top 10 season or higher. Its just 2-3 of those guys will have star-crossed seasons and you don't know which one it will be. But often there's no specific reason to predict it - not like your typical second-round RBs.

I would agree with BGP. I could see him being an upper tier 2nd rounder next year too.

Just about any RB that clearly has a starting NFL job is no worse than round 2. How many clubs did not clearly have a starting RB entering 2005?(12) - mia, pit, cle, jax, ten, den, min, chi, car, tam, arz, sfo

So you are left with 20 RBs that, entering 2005, seemed to have a starting job locked down.

I still do not see Julius Jones as a first round RB, not coming off this season. Now, if Marion Barber (or someone else) is clearly set up to cut into his carries in 2006, and the job is devolving into a RBBC situation, than that could drop Julius Jones out of round 2. That's a point where he's going in rounds 3-5.

Edit to add: You could possibly toss Atlanta in there as well, since Dunn probably isn't th eclear RB with Duckett and Vick running a lot. Dunn is 30 as well. That drops the number to 19.

 

[Raiders Fan]

Uh, last time I checked 958 yards in 11 games is significantly better than average and border line elite. Nice try though.

Sorry to bring you back to reality, but these are not borderline elite fantasy numbers, and I'd argue they aren't even significantly better than average:Using decimal scoring:

0-5 points: 2 times

5-10 points: 5 times

10-15 points: 1 time

15-20 points: 2 times

20 + points: 2 times

That's 7 times out of 12 games he was under 10 points.

Sure lets count the time he was in for one play and benched because his ankle was still sore.

By the way, he's played in 12 games, not 11.

Even if you use 12 games he still averaged 80 yards per game. LT2 averaged 91.5 this season. 80 is a lot closer to the elite than the 65 an average back gets. Nice try though.

Are we forgetting he had a 3.7 YPC before this weeks game and only 4.0 AFTER?? That is below the avg RB. 19 other RB's have higher YPC. From where he was taken and the expectations he was supposed to have.. He's been a Willie Green. I thnk he is AVG at best.

 

[Bigtime]

Let's try to explain the reason William Green is even being mentioned in conjunction with Julius Jones.

In 2002, William Green ended the year with 834 total yards and 5 TD over his last 7 games.

In 2004, Julius Jones ended the year with 898 total yards and 7 TD over his last 7 games.

THAT'S where the similartity is been drawn.

AFTER that hot finish, Green was getting draft in the Top 15-20 in many drafts for 2003.  In that year, Green went on to average 87 yards per game but had just one TD in 7 games.

So the question is whether Jones will also fail to live up to his expectations for 2005.

I haven't read most of this thread but this seems to be a fairly accurate representation of what we in fact DO have with Julius Jones. I said in this thread he is sort of an upper second round talent, and I think that has proven to be the case. Second-round RBs are those RBs who seem to have locked down a starting job but have serious questions surrounding them. And yes, we had serious questions surrounding Julius Jones.

Entering 2005 he had not put up elite RB numbers for even one full season

He had injury problems.
He had not ever played a full 16 games in the NFLThose are red flags that move an RB into the second round. Its a round of high-risk RBs. You don't draft the #15 RB expecting #15 RB numbers, you are likely looking at an RB that if things go well he finishes top 8 and there is significant risk of him just being a total bust.

This is opposed to a true first-round RB. This type of RB is a guy that has very little questions surrounding him at all. He's had huge years in the past. He's not too old. The team is good. By and large you are expecting a top 10 season or higher. Its just 2-3 of those guys will have star-crossed seasons and you don't know which one it will be. But often there's no specific reason to predict it - not like your typical second-round RBs.

I would agree with BGP. I could see him being an upper tier 2nd rounder next year too.

Just about any RB that clearly has a starting NFL job is no worse than round 2. How many clubs did not clearly have a starting RB entering 2005?(12) - mia, pit, cle, jax, ten, den, min, chi, car, tam, arz, sfo

So you are left with 20 RBs that, entering 2005, seemed to have a starting job locked down.

I still do not see Julius Jones as a first round RB, not coming off this season. Now, if Marion Barber (or someone else) is clearly set up to cut into his carries in 2006, and the job is devolving into a RBBC situation, than that could drop Julius Jones out of round 2. That's a point where he's going in rounds 3-5.

I could agree with BGP here as well. I don't feel JJ is seriously challenged by Barber but I could see him slipping as far as the third round. I think Jones will average 20 carries a game next year. If he manages to shake the Fragile Fred tag and Dallas can shore up the o-line look out.

 

[Bigtime]

Uh, last time I checked 958 yards in 11 games is significantly better than average and border line elite. Nice try though.

Sorry to bring you back to reality, but these are not borderline elite fantasy numbers, and I'd argue they aren't even significantly better than average:Using decimal scoring:

0-5 points: 2 times

5-10 points: 5 times

10-15 points: 1 time

15-20 points: 2 times

20 + points: 2 times

That's 7 times out of 12 games he was under 10 points.

Sure lets count the time he was in for one play and benched because his ankle was still sore.

By the way, he's played in 12 games, not 11.

Even if you use 12 games he still averaged 80 yards per game. LT2 averaged 91.5 this season. 80 is a lot closer to the elite than the 65 an average back gets. Nice try though.

Are we forgetting he had a 3.7 YPC before this weeks game and only 4.0 AFTER?? That is below the avg RB. 19 other RB's have higher YPC. From where he was taken and the expectations he was supposed to have.. He's been a Willie Green. I thnk he is AVG at best.

Yeah let's throw out all the good games he had and throw in a game where he had one touch. Nice way to distort.You can't dispute that 80 yard per game is closer to elite type numbers than it is to average type numbers. All your whining and crying delerium can't change that FACT.

 

[Raiders Fan]

Let's try to explain the reason William Green is even being mentioned in conjunction with Julius Jones.

In 2002, William Green ended the year with 834 total yards and 5 TD over his last 7 games.

In 2004, Julius Jones ended the year with 898 total yards and 7 TD over his last 7 games.

THAT'S where the similartity is been drawn.

AFTER that hot finish, Green was getting draft in the Top 15-20 in many drafts for 2003.  In that year, Green went on to average 87 yards per game but had just one TD in 7 games.

So the question is whether Jones will also fail to live up to his expectations for 2005.

I haven't read most of this thread but this seems to be a fairly accurate representation of what we in fact DO have with Julius Jones. I said in this thread he is sort of an upper second round talent, and I think that has proven to be the case. Second-round RBs are those RBs who seem to have locked down a starting job but have serious questions surrounding them. And yes, we had serious questions surrounding Julius Jones.

Entering 2005 he had not put up elite RB numbers for even one full season

He had injury problems.
He had not ever played a full 16 games in the NFLThose are red flags that move an RB into the second round. Its a round of high-risk RBs. You don't draft the #15 RB expecting #15 RB numbers, you are likely looking at an RB that if things go well he finishes top 8 and there is significant risk of him just being a total bust.

This is opposed to a true first-round RB. This type of RB is a guy that has very little questions surrounding him at all. He's had huge years in the past. He's not too old. The team is good. By and large you are expecting a top 10 season or higher. Its just 2-3 of those guys will have star-crossed seasons and you don't know which one it will be. But often there's no specific reason to predict it - not like your typical second-round RBs.

I would agree with BGP. I could see him being an upper tier 2nd rounder next year too.

Just about any RB that clearly has a starting NFL job is no worse than round 2. How many clubs did not clearly have a starting RB entering 2005?(12) - mia, pit, cle, jax, ten, den, min, chi, car, tam, arz, sfo

So you are left with 20 RBs that, entering 2005, seemed to have a starting job locked down.

I still do not see Julius Jones as a first round RB, not coming off this season. Now, if Marion Barber (or someone else) is clearly set up to cut into his carries in 2006, and the job is devolving into a RBBC situation, than that could drop Julius Jones out of round 2. That's a point where he's going in rounds 3-5.

I could agree with BGP here as well. I don't feel JJ is seriously challenged by Barber but I could see him slipping as far as the third round. I think Jones will average 20 carries a game next year. If he manages to shake the Fragile Fred tag and Dallas can shore up the o-line look out.

You could make that IF to a lot of RB's.. If Jordan was always given 20+ carries a game and they had a better O-Line he would be top 5 for sure..

 

[Raiders Fan]

Uh, last time I checked 958 yards in 11 games is significantly better than average and border line elite. Nice try though.

Sorry to bring you back to reality, but these are not borderline elite fantasy numbers, and I'd argue they aren't even significantly better than average:Using decimal scoring:

0-5 points: 2 times

5-10 points: 5 times

10-15 points: 1 time

15-20 points: 2 times

20 + points: 2 times

That's 7 times out of 12 games he was under 10 points.

Sure lets count the time he was in for one play and benched because his ankle was still sore.

By the way, he's played in 12 games, not 11.

Even if you use 12 games he still averaged 80 yards per game. LT2 averaged 91.5 this season. 80 is a lot closer to the elite than the 65 an average back gets. Nice try though.

Are we forgetting he had a 3.7 YPC before this weeks game and only 4.0 AFTER?? That is below the avg RB. 19 other RB's have higher YPC. From where he was taken and the expectations he was supposed to have.. He's been a Willie Green. I thnk he is AVG at best.

Yeah let's throw out all the good games he had and throw in a game where he had one touch. Nice way to distort.

I pointed out the 3.7 YPC that was just before yesterday.. I also noted it's only 4.0 AFTER..

 

[Bigtime]

You can't dispute that 80 yard per game is closer to elite type numbers than it is to average or below average type numbers. All your whining and crying delerium can't change that FACT.

 

[Raiders Fan]

You can't dispute that 80 yard per game is closer to elite type numbers than it is to average or below average type numbers. All your whining and crying delerium can't change that FACT.

But what good is that when in Fantasy use he was only worth while maybe 4 weeks out of the year.. Also before this week it was 69 yards a game and LT was 94 a game. That is huge. I think you are the one that distorts the numbers by using game avg's. To make him look closer. 69 to 94 a game doesn't sound like a lot but add it up.. It is.. If you want to use numbers look at his FP avg. In my league he was 9.6 before this weeks game. While LT was 20.2. BTW I use those numbers cause the site hasn't updated it..

 

[Bigtime]

It's good that you are trying to compare him to LT2 instead of Willie Green. That is a step in the right direction. Just out of curiosity where do you think JJ gets drafted next year by the general public?Also, if JJ goes off for 15+ fantasy points next week will you still think he's a Willie Green???

 

[Raiders Fan]

It's good that you are trying to compare him to LT2 instead of Willie Green. That is a step in the right direction.

Just out of curiosity where do you think JJ gets drafted next year by the general public?

Also, if JJ goes off for 15+ fantasy points next week will you still think he's a Willie Green???

He has to be tailend of 2nd early 3rd because of opportunity.. So few clear cut RB's in the NFL not sharing carries forces him to be early..

 

[BGP]

Uh, last time I checked 958 yards in 11 games is significantly better than average and border line elite. Nice try though.

Sorry to bring you back to reality, but these are not borderline elite fantasy numbers, and I'd argue they aren't even significantly better than average:Using decimal scoring:

0-5 points: 2 times

5-10 points: 5 times

10-15 points: 1 time

15-20 points: 2 times

20 + points: 2 times

That's 7 times out of 12 games he was under 10 points.

Sure lets count the time he was in for one play and benched because his ankle was still sore.

By the way, he's played in 12 games, not 11.

Even if you use 12 games he still averaged 80 yards per game. LT2 averaged 91.5 this season. 80 is a lot closer to the elite than the 65 an average back gets. Nice try though.

Are we forgetting he had a 3.7 YPC before this weeks game and only 4.0 AFTER?? That is below the avg RB. 19 other RB's have higher YPC. From where he was taken and the expectations he was supposed to have.. He's been a Willie Green. I thnk he is AVG at best.

One must make a special exemption for Bill Parcells running backs when it comes to YPC. Most of Parcells' RBS have had subpar YPCs. Ottis Anderson won a super bowl in 1990 and averaged like 3.2 YPC or so for the year. Curtis Martin had a poor YPC under Parcells as well. His RBs usually score lots of TDs, so Julius Jones low TD count is a surprise.

 

[Bigtime]

han round 2. How many clubs did not clearly have a starting RB entering 2005?

I could agree with BGP here as well. I don't feel JJ is seriously challenged by Barber but I could see him slipping as far as the third round.

I think Jones will average 20 carries a game next year. If he manages to shake the Fragile Fred tag and Dallas can shore up the o-line look out.

You could make that IF to a lot of RB's.. If Jordan was always given 20+ carries a game and they had a better O-Line he would be top 5 for sure..

Uh, L.Jordan is #6 in my league standard scoring. Did I miss something?

 

[Garts]

The thing that really impresses me about Julius is his ability to run the Draw. I think he does it better then anyone in the NFL and many of his big gainers come on this play.