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Julius Jones- 2005 version of Willie Green? (1 Viewer)

Let's try to explain the reason William Green is even being mentioned in conjunction with Julius Jones.

In 2002, William Green ended the year with 834 total yards and 5 TD over his last 7 games.

In 2004, Julius Jones ended the year with 898 total yards and 7 TD over his last 7 games.

THAT'S where the similartity is been drawn.

AFTER that hot finish, Green was getting draft in the Top 15-20 in many drafts for 2003.  In that year, Green went on to average 87 yards per game but had just one TD in 7 games.

So the question is whether Jones will also fail to live up to his expectations for 2005.
This is precisely the reason why I believe Jones will underperform expectations drawn from the hype this offseason and precisely the purpose of this post. I am not comparing style, off the field activities, etc.I believe that the same thing will happen to JJ, whether it be defenses focusing in on him more or not...

There is only two guys on here that agree? Very surprising.
SHHHHH!!!! Lots of us agree but we want these other people to take him as their RB1...
 
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If by "bust" you mean underperforming vs draft position, then yes, I say the same thing for Kevin Jones.  Read the Player Spotlight on KJones to get my perspective on guys that have hot streaks in a small sample size. 

To be a dominant fantasy back and really climb into the ELITE rankings (say Top 5), a RB needs both yardage AND TDs.  I think Jones might get the yardage, but I don't see him approaching the 15-25 TD that the heavy hitters will get.
Yudkin,JJ's adp is somewhere in the #10 RB taken, even if he only gets 9-10 TD's he'll perform right at his draft position.
Let's try this one more time . . .I have seen JJ go as early as the 9th player overall.

As I mentioned earlier, I have him projected at 1400 total yards and 8 TD = 188 fantasy points. Over the past three seasons, that would have ranked as the #17, #13, and an T-18th back.

We can certianly debate how well he will do, but for those that are more skeptical, Jones won't earn back his draft spot if the low end projections prove to be more accurate.

IMO, there are several other RBs that are going after Jones that I see as much surer things to do as well or better than Jones. I would much rather have one of those guys than a guy that *might* do well in an offense that *might* turn things around.

I may have the minority opinion, but that's how I see it . . .

 
If by "bust" you mean underperforming vs draft position, then yes, I say the same thing for Kevin Jones.  Read the Player Spotlight on KJones to get my perspective on guys that have hot streaks in a small sample size. 

To be a dominant fantasy back and really climb into the ELITE rankings (say Top 5), a RB needs both yardage AND TDs.  I think Jones might get the yardage, but I don't see him approaching the 15-25 TD that the heavy hitters will get.
Yudkin,JJ's adp is somewhere in the #10 RB taken, even if he only gets 9-10 TD's he'll perform right at his draft position.
Let's try this one more time . . .I have seen JJ go as early as the 9th player overall.

As I mentioned earlier, I have him projected at 1400 total yards and 8 TD = 188 fantasy points. Over the past three seasons, that would have ranked as the #17, #13, and an T-18th back.

We can certianly debate how well he will do, but for those that are more skeptical, Jones won't earn back his draft spot if the low end projections prove to be more accurate.

IMO, there are several other RBs that are going after Jones that I see as much surer things to do as well or better than Jones. I would much rather have one of those guys than a guy that *might* do well in an offense that *might* turn things around.

I may have the minority opinion, but that's how I see it . . .
I have to agree with others and say that you cant compare the two. Julius has better skills and acceleration than Green. His Oline is going to be better than Green's. (I say this because Larry Allen is in much better shape than he has been in the last 3 years, they added a prowbowl guard, they have 2nd and 3rd pick Olinemen coming back from injuries from last season and they have one of the league's better blocking TE's coming back. Add Flozell as one of the top 10 OT and you should have a good line.) His defense is better. His coach is better. His other skill players are better. If you draft Jones in the first round then no your not going to get much more than you paid for. But I would say that about all the other players as well. I wouldn't take him over LT, Priest, Edge or SA if he signs but after that he is comparable to the others.

I dont believe in dropping a player's value simply because the majority like him.

 
if you're going to say that julius jones will be a bust at rb in the nfl moving forward can you at least compare him to THOMAS jones. i'm just saying...loli believe that julius will be fine but my major concern revolves around his ability to stay upright for 16 games. he didn't do it as a rookie and i can't help but wonder if he was on the thomas jones/david boston work-out plan at one time or another?

 
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There are 2 big differences I see between JJ and Green.1) Green is a headcase and JJ is not2) Green's HC was Butch Davis, JJ's is ParcellsNuff said

 
I have to agree that the comparison to Green is overboard...Julius' stats are also similar (if not better) to LTs rookie stats. Quite a range in between those players.

 
I dont believe in dropping a player's value simply because the majority like him.
The idea is not to drop because other's are high on him. It is dropping him because he is being overvalued/over-hyped.
 
What I find most amusing about the uproar in this thread (how DARE someone question a guy with, what, 4 big games under his belt in his entire career?!) is the fact that no one will acknowledge that just about every year there are one or more young players who, over a small sample size the year before, had nice numbers, and then come out and flop the following season. Why not Julius Jones? People response with "oh, so Kevin Jones will bust too? And Tatum Bell?? And Steven Jackson!?" My answer is YES to at least one of them, and I have no reason to think it cannot be Julius Jones. (In fact, I believe of the guys I mention he is most likely to disappoint, for a myriad of reasons).Fantasy footballers in general get way too caught up in the hype of a few games the following year. The combination of short-term memories and mob-mentality make for an interesting off-season phenominon.Again I'm with Yudkin and Patoons on this one.

 
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There have been plenty of players with off the field issues at least as serious as W. Green's, and several of those players performed fine on the field. Even O. Smith didn't perform badly. So I wouldn't necessarily attribute Green's NFL failures soley, or even primarly to his off the field problems.Yes, the original post should give us reason to pause and think. We shouldn't get so caught up in making the distinctions between Green and Jones that we miss the overall on the field similarities, namely a rookie with lighting production in a "small" number of games.Depending on league size, Jones is presently being drafted at the end of 1st round 1st part round 2. Do you want to risk the W. Green / Barlow kind of unproductivity that his price tag carries? Jones has kool-aid written all over him, considering the high price tag. Why pass over a solid proven commodity for him?

 
I dont believe in dropping a player's value simply because the majority like him.
The idea is not to drop because other's are high on him. It is dropping him because he is being overvalued/over-hyped.
how is he overvalued/over hyped?he is the starting running back on a team with a conservative offense, great coach who has a track record of making rbs, will get all the goal line work, and had some very nice games when he was healthy.

with that being said, he is ranked 12-15 at rb. thats hype?

 
I am not that high on Jones for a couple of reasons.First of all Jones lit it up when he started the season with fresh legs after week 10 when every week players are showing the wear and tear of the season. Jones had a couple of big games but stuggled in a few also. Although Jones is a threa to score from 20-30 yards out he had trouble converting short yardage situations last year, hence the Cowboys signed the A-Train who TUNA has already stated will be his "short-yardage/goal line type RB" Toss a little of Marion Barber who is a good goal line RB himself and JJ might put up some good yardage but the TDs may be hard to come by.Is Jones a good back? Yes, but he will be over-valued this year.

 
with that being said, he is ranked 12-15 at rb. thats hype?
As stated in earlier posts, he is going in and around #10 in many leagues (including redrafts and start-up dynasty leagues). Yes, I think this is seriously overvaluing him.Give me Jordan, for example, (who many are down on at this point) at a later pick and you have roughly the same output this season, if not worse.

 
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with that being said, he is ranked 12-15 at rb. thats hype?
As stated in earlier posts, he is going in and around #10 in many leagues (including redrafts and start-up dynasty leagues). Yes, I think this is seriously overvaluing him.Give me Jordan, for example, (who many are down on at this point) at a later pick and you have roughly the same output this season, if not worse.
I judge players how they look on the field when they play. Not how they are being drafted. Julius as a top 10 pick is a risk. But other than than about 5-6 players (and even those have risk) there is a ton of risk with any top 10 pick. I like Lamont Jordan too and I put him at about the same range as Julius so I dont mind that but I think its a more fair comparison to compare Jordan with Barlow though. Backup that put up good numbers who finally has a shot at being the man. Jordan has more talent surrounding him than Barlow though so he should be ok. Barlow's next best player was Eric Johnson and their Oline was even worse than Dallas's last season.

Something to keep in mind though is the Raider Oline 2 year's ago was bad enough to take Gannon from a top 3 QB to the bottom of the pile. I think the addition of Gallery has improved it though and they were not quite as bad last season.

 
with that being said, he is ranked 12-15 at rb. thats hype?
As stated in earlier posts, he is going in and around #10 in many leagues (including redrafts and start-up dynasty leagues). Yes, I think this is seriously overvaluing him.Give me Jordan, for example, (who many are down on at this point) at a later pick and you have roughly the same output this season, if not worse.
this is just your hypothetical example that supports your opinion. use your logic on an actual real life shark draft and lamont jordan will be long gone if you pass on jones in hopes for him. in the fanexfootball draft, jones went 2.01, not 10th, lamont jordan went 3.04, meaning, if you passed on jones, lamont jordan wouldnt have been there later. i have done some free yahoo leagues (10 team , start 3 wr) and j.jones is a 3rd round pick. its all realitive to the scoring system, lineup requirements, and league size.

to just say, jones goes at 10 in many drafts and i can get lamont jordan later, is pretty silly without putting it into some kind of a context.

is this amateur hour?

 
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What I find most amusing about the uproar in this thread (how DARE someone question a guy with, what, 4 big games under his belt in his entire career?!) is the fact that no one will acknowledge that just about every year there are one or more young players who, over a small sample size the year before, had nice numbers, and then come out and flop the following season.

Why not Julius Jones?

People response with "oh, so Kevin Jones will bust too? And Tatum Bell?? And Steven Jackson!?"

My answer is YES to at least one of them, and I have no reason to think it cannot be Julius Jones. (In fact, I believe of the guys I mention he is most likely to disappoint, for a myriad of reasons).

Fantasy footballers in general get way too caught up in the hype of a few games the following year. The combination of short-term memories and mob-mentality make for an interesting off-season phenominon.

Again I'm with Yudkin and Patoons on this one.
Can Julius be a bust.. of course.. but you guys have yet to give me a reason to think he is the next William Green?Of course people will see the big games and think that this is a glimpse of what is to come, but if you guys get too stuck with numbers you don't realize that William Green's running style and JJ's running style are totally different.

Their numbers from their first year are close, though not that similar either (JJ averaged more yards per carry, got more TD's, had a much higher TD to carry ratio)

are you saying that JJ will be the 2005 WG because you figure that one RB has to fail? I don't think that there is a "Rule" that says that a RB who had a half a good year HAS to fail the next year..

give me some similarities in them as RB's

 
to just say, jones goes at 10 in many drafts and i can get lamont jordan later, is pretty silly without putting it into some kind of a context.

is this amateur hour?
If you take a look in Jones' Player Spotlight. Good indication in there about why I think he is set around #10. There are posts within that thread questioning why he isn't ranked higher based on the projections from the posters. This is where I see clear evidence of the overvaluing of Jones.

If he is projected by the masses to have stats that are in and around the 10th ranked RB, then yes, this is where I find the overvaluing. Since he has shown very little in a small amount of games and had a subpar YPC against strong run defenses. To me, that is an indication of things to come once teams focus a bit more on him.

Could you not trade Jones for Jordan/(value) or trade down in the draft? :confused:

 
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if you are saying that JJ only had a few big games like WG and will not take into consideration that they are different types of RB's.. then you also would have said that Ricky Williams would be a bust because his first year #'s were not overly impressive and he only had a few big gamesJJ197 carries, 819 yards 4.2ypc with 7TD's, 17 receptions for 109 yards receivingRicky Williams253 carries, 884 yards 3.5ypc with 2TD, 28 receptions for 172 yardsRW "only" had 4 games of 100 total yards his first year.. but then again if we only look at #'s he would have been the 2000 version of WG.

 
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Of course people will see the big games and think that this is a glimpse of what is to come, but if you guys get too stuck with numbers you don't realize that William Green's running style and JJ's running style are totally different.

give me some similarities in them as RB's
Different styles does not mean that they will not follow the same path. Bettis' style is different from various RB's, but you can compare his success to many others. Just a different path to the toilet.

 
if you are saying that JJ only had a few big games like WG and will not take into consideration that they are different types of RB's.. then you also would have said that Ricky Williams would be a bust because his first year #'s were not overly impressive and he only had a few big games

RW "only" had 4 games of 100 total yards his first year.. but then again if we only look at #'s he would have been the 2000 version of WG.
I'm not saying that it is a lock to happen.When teams with strong run defenses played the Cowboys, he clearly struggled. I think once teams focus in on him, that's going to be the result.

I think it is similar situation it Green's and Jones is not overly impressive to warrant the hype. Similar offensive-minded coaches, similar rookie years, similar team off-season activity. Could it be a similar 2nd year result? I think so, which is why I will be passing on JJ in my drafts this season.

May I be wrong? Of course, but for the love of Pete, why are some of you are so sure that he will be successful? There seems to be very little questioning that.

 
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to just say, jones goes at 10 in many drafts and i can get lamont jordan later, is pretty silly without putting it into some kind of a context.

is this amateur hour?
If you take a look in Jones' Player Spotlight. Good indication in there about why I think he is set around #10. There are posts within that thread questioning why he isn't ranked higher based on the projections from the posters. This is where I see clear evidence of the overvaluing of Jones.

If he is projected by the masses to have stats that are in and around the 10th ranked RB, then yes, this is where I find the overvaluing. Since he has shown very little in a small amount of games and had a subpar YPC against strong run defenses. To me, that is an indication of things to come once teams focus a bit more on him.

Could you not trade Jones for Jordan/(value) or trade down in the draft? :confused:
the player spotlight isnt gospel. who cares about posts? or projections? where does he actually get drafted in a real life draft is what matters.ranked higher doesnt mean drafted higher. who cares who is ranked where? its all realitve to value. plug in your league size, roster size, scoring system, run a vbd and see where j.jones ends up

all leagues dont allow trading of draft picks, and if they do, its slightly more complicated than, "well, the value is pretty similar, lets move down and stockpile picks." someone has to have a desire to move up to get a player they are in love with, and if the value is all similar, good luck pulling that deal.

i guess it is amateur hour

 
the player spotlight isnt gospel. who cares about posts? or projections? where does he actually get drafted in a real life draft is what matters.

ranked higher doesnt mean drafted higher. who cares who is ranked where? its all realitve to value. plug in your league size, roster size, scoring system, run a vbd and see where j.jones ends up

all leagues dont allow trading of draft picks, and if they do, its slightly more complicated than, "well, the value is pretty similar, lets move down and stockpile picks." someone has to have a desire to move up to get a player they are in love with, and if the value is all similar, good luck pulling that deal.

i guess it is amateur hour
So you are telling me that player spotlight does not show any indication of perceived value?
 
the player spotlight isnt gospel. who cares about posts? or projections? where does he actually get drafted in a real life draft is what matters.

ranked higher doesnt mean drafted higher. who cares who is ranked where? its all realitve to value. plug in your league size, roster size, scoring system, run a vbd and see where j.jones ends up

all leagues dont allow trading of draft picks, and if they do, its slightly more complicated than, "well, the value is pretty similar, lets move down and stockpile picks." someone has to have a desire to move up to get a player they are in love with, and if the value is all similar, good luck pulling that deal.

i guess it is amateur hour
So you are telling me that player spotlight does not show any indication of perceived value?
the player spotlight lists positives, negatives, situation analysis, and sums it up with final thoughts, then quotes various message board posters opinions and lists projections. that isnt value. there is no context. this is value: http://www.footballguys.com/05vbdrevisited.htm

 
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the player spotlight lists positives, negatives, situation analysis, and sums it up with final thoughts, then quotes various message board posters opinions and lists projections. that isnt value. there is no context.

this is value:  http://www.footballguys.com/05vbdrevisited.htm
Thanks, I understand the concept behind VBD. So when evaluating whether a player is over/undervalued you do not consider positives, negatives or situation analysis? I don't know many people who do not.

If you don't consider these conditions, how are you determining who is over/undervalued? You are considering skill exclusively?

 
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the player spotlight lists positives, negatives, situation analysis, and sums it up with final thoughts, then quotes various message board posters opinions and lists projections. that isnt value. there is no context.

this is value:  http://www.footballguys.com/05vbdrevisited.htm
Thanks, I understand the concept behind VBD. So when evaluating whether a player is over/undervalued you do not consider positives, negatives or situation analysis? I don't know many people who do not.

If you don't consider these conditions, how are you determining who is over/undervalued? You are considering skill exclusively?
read my earlier posts everything is contained in there. for what its worth, i hope j.jones falls off the map and a-train dominates this year.i hate arguing

:D

 
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What people may or may not be considering (depending upon which side you are favoring) is that many RB will put up a "hot strecth" of several games over the course of a season. Since Jones had his at the end of the year, his hot games were more pronounced. While we don't know what he *COULD* have done in the time he missed, there is no basis for argument either way--he could have been great, mediocre, or all points in between.Here is something I included in the Kevin Jones Player Spotlight in terms of how RBs can group their scoring in a stretch of games:8 straight games totaling 120+ fantasy points in 2004:P. Holmes 197T. Barber 179L. Tomlinson 171D. Davis 169S. Alexander (1-8) 169M. Pittman 151L. Johnson 151C. Dillon 149C. Martin 146B. Westbrook 143R. Droughns 142S. Alexander (9-16) 138E. James 136W. McGahee 135N. Goings 135J. Jones 134A. Green 131R. Johnson 130K. Jones 126D. Blaylock 125C. Brown 123D. McAllister 122Clearly, this is more common occurance than some may have thought. And if you looked at other seasons, there would be just as many stretches of "brilliant" performances--OVER A PARTIAL SEASON.So the question becomes, what to make of all these RBs that go on scoring binges? If you look at the above list, 5 of them are not even starters this year, and another (Brown) could lose significant time if Henry comes to Tennessee.I'm not suggesting that Jones will lose his job. But Jones "got his" based on an inordinate amount of carries and against weak competition. IIRC, he was only the third RB to ever have 30+ carries in three straight games. In those games, he had a disproportionate amount of the workload and a disproportionate amount of the team's scoring. He WILL NOT be asked to carry that workload over an entire season or he will be in an ICU by midseason.As for A-Train and Barber, Parcells has already said that Thomas has been considered for a short yardage/goal line role (although no promises as to if he would definitely be that). He's also said he expects to have Barber in for 20-25 plays on offense. Given that there are roughly 60-65 plays a game, this may be a sign that Jones will not get the touches that many are predicting.Others may read tea leaves differently than I do, but that's my 0.02.

 
to just say, jones goes at 10 in many drafts and i can get lamont jordan later, is pretty silly without putting it into some kind of a context.

is this amateur hour?
If you take a look in Jones' Player Spotlight. Good indication in there about why I think he is set around #10. There are posts within that thread questioning why he isn't ranked higher based on the projections from the posters. This is where I see clear evidence of the overvaluing of Jones.

If he is projected by the masses to have stats that are in and around the 10th ranked RB, then yes, this is where I find the overvaluing. Since he has shown very little in a small amount of games and had a subpar YPC against strong run defenses. To me, that is an indication of things to come once teams focus a bit more on him.

Could you not trade Jones for Jordan/(value) or trade down in the draft? :confused:
There is no way I would trade J. Jones for Lamont Jordan. I honestly don't think Jordan is any good, but I do think Jones is good.
 
Agree, for simialr & different reasons. I am not nearly as high on Julius as the polls are ...Around mid-season many teams surmise correctly that they don;t have a chance at playoff success - like Dallas. Parcells is one of those coaches expecting a superbowl (sometime) and a reputation to wait & develop the team. Like Dan Reeves, he's given more time to work up a successful team.When Julius did so well, Dallas looked like they were feeding him the ball - a focused offense on running and develop the Offensive skills in this area. There's not a lot of reaosn to think Parcell will continue with this O game plan this year for a full 16 games, especially if he plans to make the playoffs.He'll shoot for balance, and change-of-pace schemes, and alternate backs. Jones will be a bread-and-butter runner but expect him to be well scouted in 2005 and for teams to prepare to stop Julius as a Defensive rule #1 when playing Dallas. That's why Parcell's needs more backs - spell Julius and assure they have fresh ballcarriers to face well prepared defenses for a full season.Similar note - you see a lot of poor quality offenses put up some bigger-then-expected numbers in the last 4-5 games in a season, once eveyrone relaxes and the playoffs are out of sight. Late-season pushes are no new phenom. The represent the team phjilosophy down the stretch - for Dallas in 2004 it was "work on our running game" for next year".

 
Just curious now, does anyone see A-Train and Barber taking more carries from Jones than Davenport and Fisher take from Ahman Green?Ahman still finished fairly strong the last few years.You can also include about half the league in this question, every lead back gets rested at times.

 
Julius Jones had three huge games last year against the Bears, Seahawks and Giants. He touched the ball at least 30 times in each of these games. In his other 4 starts, against Baltimore, New Orleans, Philly and Washington, his collective numbers were 100 carries for 306 yards (3.06 YPC), with his best YPC in any of those game being 3.8 against New Orleans no less. It should also be noted that Julius averaged 25 carries a game in these 4 games, which puts him on the pace for 400 carries in a 16 game season (which will not happen). I agree that comparing his numbers to Willie Green's is not be the best way to determine that he will stuggle. These stats are a pretty good indication of what he will do in '05 IMO.

 
Just curious now, does anyone see A-Train and Barber taking more carries from Jones than Davenport and Fisher take from Ahman Green?

Ahman still finished fairly strong the last few years.

You can also include about half the league in this question, every lead back gets rested at times.
No, no more than those guys take from Green or any other player for that matter. I don't think it's going to stop JJ's ability from performing, I just don't think he will perform well. My concern would be if bringing these guys in is showing that he is concerned about how strongly JJ can perform. That was my point in bringing those two guys into the post.Aside from his use of Meggett and something pretty close to a RBBC with the G-men for a year or so, Parcells did not bring in a guy routinely. Of course other guys got their carries...

He may be trying to keep Jones fresh though and worried about a repeat of last year's injury? Maybe it's because he feels the best shot at taking the division is to just pound it out more than he traditionally did? Seems that is the direction he's headed drafting primarily defense. It could simply be insurance.

 
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Just curious now, does anyone see A-Train and Barber taking more carries from Jones than Davenport and Fisher take from Ahman Green?

Ahman still finished fairly strong the last few years.

You can also include about half the league in this question, every lead back gets rested at times.
Green is a good comparison. He's typically been in the 260-280 carry range with 8-10 TD but 50-70 receptions.When he went crazy in 2003, his carries shot up to 355 and his TD total more than doubled. I explain this phenomenum due to Brett Favre breaking his thumb and having problems passing.

In the years where Green did not have that big a workload or as many TD (2002 or 2004), Green ranked 13th and 12th.

However, I don't see Jones getting 50-70 reecptions to keep pace with Green.

As far as splitting the workload, last year Green lost 230 touches to other RB, so that made a sizeable difference.

 
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interesting stat by DY (i do appreciate that you help ground these discussions and in some cases temper the enthusiasm with statistical & historical insight) about jones being only the third RB in league history to get 30+ carries in three consecutive games.so lets see what is behind curtain #2.even if you THROW OUT those first three games with 30+ carries that you characterized as an inordinate amount of the workload... and this is throwing out a 150 yard game & a 198 yard game mind you... lets look at what he did in his last four games, in which he didn't get 30 carries once...he had 88, 80, 57 & 149 yards = 1 yard shy of 375.this STILL projects to nearly 1,500 yards.and yes, i did see other arguments upthread which seem to revolve around the idea that because other teams will key on him, his stats are likely to diminish. but that seems to be specious & not hold any water. without naming names, no one hear would have trouble naming multiple RBs that do well (over the course of a season) despite the concerted efforts of defenses to stop them. why should we assume it would be any different for jones.just as we shouldn't ASSUME jones is a stud in the making (but look for evidence that he is, including, but not limited to... scouting info, game film, statistical & historical context he is embedded in, OL, system & scheme, HC tendencies, SOS... most of these have been looked at... though usually one strand will be separated out in isolation to make a particular point), we shouldn't assume he is mediocre, either. THAT is exactly the point which is in dispute.good defenses can expose a bad RB. they can also make a good RB look like a bad RB (LT had some brutal YPC average games last season).

 
interesting stat by DY (i do appreciate that you help ground these discussions and in some cases temper the enthusiasm with statistical & historical insight) about jones being only the third RB in league history to get 30+ carries in three consecutive games.

so lets see what is behind curtain #2.

even if you THROW OUT those first three games with 30+ carries that you characterized as an inordinate amount of the workload... and this is throwing out a 150 yard game & a 198 yard game mind you... lets look at what he did in his last four games, in which he didn't get 30 carries once...

he had 88, 80, 57 & 149 yards = 1 yard shy of 375.

this STILL projects to nearly 1,500 yards.

and yes, i did see other arguments upthread which seem to revolve around the idea that because other teams will key on him, his stats are likely to diminish. but that seems to be specious & not hold any water.

without naming names, no one hear would have trouble naming multiple RBs that do well (over the course of a season) despite the concerted efforts of defenses to stop them. why should we assume it would be any different for jones.

just as we shouldn't ASSUME jones is a stud in the making (but look for evidence that he is, including, but not limited to... scouting info, game film, statistical & historical context he is embedded in, OL, system & scheme, HC tendencies, SOS... most of these have been looked at... though usually one strand will be separated out in isolation to make a particular point), we shouldn't assume he is mediocre, either. THAT is exactly the point which is in dispute.

good defenses can expose a bad RB. they can also make a good RB look like a bad RB (LT had some brutal YPC average games last season).
Bob -By accident, you helped illustrate just how overworked Jones was last year. As you said, IGNORING the three straight games with 30+ carries AND only using the 4 subsequent games (for 375 yards) . . .

Jones had 99 carries. That's a pace of 396 carries for a full season--and that's EXCLUDING ALL of the 30+ carry games.

I don't care which RB it is, if the over/under for carries is 396, I'm taking the under.

To be clear, I am not saying that Jones is not a decent RB and won't go on to be a productive back. He may even turn into a consistent Top 10 RB. However, I think that both Jones and the offense as a whole will have to grow into that production level. Yes, players like Emmitt, Terrell, Holmes, Sanders, and LT can step in and ignite offenses, but those are rare commodities. Overnight success is pretty rare.

Maybe Jones will turn into the next Curtis Martin (since he's been the one back used for comparisons). Martin has had a few elite seasons, but in terms of fantasy production he's been consistent and a dependable back. In recent years (last year notwithstanding) a good but not exceptional back. However, if Jones had the same stats that Martin did in the late 90s and early 00s, I suspect he would rank lower with the increase in RB productivity. (Basically, the totals from then would likely rank 4-6 spots lower circa 2005).

Again, I'm not suggesting Jones will bomb, only that I have tempered entusiam compared to where some people project him or are drafting him. If he falls in to the third, yes, I'm all over him.

 
As I mentioned earlier, I have him projected at 1400 total yards and 8 TD = 188 fantasy points. Over the past three seasons, that would have ranked as the #17, #13, and an T-18th back.
In my leagues that 188 fantasy points figures out to be ~25pts lower than #10 on average over the last three seasons. That's what, 1.5 pts/game? Given that, I don't see a great deal of risk between 10 and wherever 188 puts him. Also factor in that his ADP for RBs on most lists is more like 11 - 14(where I'd be inclinced to take him) and the risk is even less.
 
As I mentioned earlier, I have him projected at 1400 total yards and 8 TD = 188 fantasy points.  Over the past three seasons, that would have ranked as the #17, #13, and an T-18th back.
In my leagues that 188 fantasy points figures out to be ~25pts lower than #10 on average over the last three seasons. That's what, 1.5 pts/game? Given that, I don't see a great deal of risk between 10 and wherever 188 puts him. Also factor in that his ADP for RBs on most lists is more like 11 - 14(where I'd be inclinced to take him) and the risk is even less.
If you like Jones . . . TAKE HIM. If you don't like Jones . . . DON'T TAKE HIM. Everything is relative. As I said earlier, Jones went as the #8 RB off the board in a draft I was in over the weekend.FBG has Dillon as their #8 RB with 231 fantasy points. In this case the difference would be 43 points (231 for Dillon and the 188 I mentioned for Jones). Is that enough to make a difference? That's a judment call.

My point all along was that in SOME drafts Jones has been going too early for MY liking and that I wouldn't draft him there.

The other issue is that there would be plenty of other RB options to look at at that spot in the draft that already have a track record more than a small sample size from the end of last year to go by. But maybe that's just me . . .

Everyone has their own opinion and outlook on him for this season.

 
good defenses can expose a bad RB. they can also make a good RB look like a bad RB (LT had some brutal YPC average games last season).
He also had strained groin.
and jones was recovering from a broken shoulder. wouldn't it be inconsistent to account for LT's injury & compensate in our expectations & projections without also doing so for jones?i have heard others mention the fresh legs argument. this doesn't account for the fact that he couldn't do a lot of lifting during the first half of teh season & was far from a state of optimal playing strength during his incendiary stretch run.

isn't it possibile that being able to lift weights leading into the season & enhancing his strength could have some positive repercussions for his overall production & stats?

 
interesting stat by DY (i do appreciate that you help ground these discussions and in some cases temper the enthusiasm with statistical & historical insight) about jones being only the third RB in league history to get 30+ carries in three consecutive games.

so lets see what is behind curtain #2.

even if you THROW OUT those first three games with 30+ carries that you characterized as an inordinate amount of the workload... and this is throwing out a 150 yard game & a 198 yard game mind you... lets look at what he did in his last four games, in which he didn't get 30 carries once...

he had 88, 80, 57 & 149 yards = 1 yard shy of 375.

this STILL projects to nearly 1,500 yards.

and yes, i did see other arguments upthread which seem to revolve around the idea that because other teams will key on him, his stats are likely to diminish. but that seems to be specious & not hold any water.

without naming names, no one hear would have trouble naming multiple RBs that do well (over the course of a season) despite the concerted efforts of defenses to stop them. why should we assume it would be any different for jones.

just as we shouldn't ASSUME jones is a stud in the making (but look for evidence that he is, including, but not limited to... scouting info, game film, statistical & historical context he is embedded in, OL, system & scheme, HC tendencies, SOS... most of these have been looked at... though usually one strand will be separated out in isolation to make a particular point), we shouldn't assume he is mediocre, either. THAT is exactly the point which is in dispute.

good defenses can expose a bad RB. they can also make a good RB look like a bad RB (LT had some brutal YPC average games last season).
Bob -By accident, you helped illustrate just how overworked Jones was last year. As you said, IGNORING the three straight games with 30+ carries AND only using the 4 subsequent games (for 375 yards) . . .

Jones had 99 carries. That's a pace of 396 carries for a full season--and that's EXCLUDING ALL of the 30+ carry games.

I don't care which RB it is, if the over/under for carries is 396, I'm taking the under.

To be clear, I am not saying that Jones is not a decent RB and won't go on to be a productive back. He may even turn into a consistent Top 10 RB. However, I think that both Jones and the offense as a whole will have to grow into that production level. Yes, players like Emmitt, Terrell, Holmes, Sanders, and LT can step in and ignite offenses, but those are rare commodities. Overnight success is pretty rare.

Maybe Jones will turn into the next Curtis Martin (since he's been the one back used for comparisons). Martin has had a few elite seasons, but in terms of fantasy production he's been consistent and a dependable back. In recent years (last year notwithstanding) a good but not exceptional back. However, if Jones had the same stats that Martin did in the late 90s and early 00s, I suspect he would rank lower with the increase in RB productivity. (Basically, the totals from then would likely rank 4-6 spots lower circa 2005).

Again, I'm not suggesting Jones will bomb, only that I have tempered entusiam compared to where some people project him or are drafting him. If he falls in to the third, yes, I'm all over him.
DY-i didn't mean to say anything inadvertant... i am aware that 400 carries would be a historically improbable workload... not only improbable... but undesireable for jones' owners... i generally agree he would probably end up in the critical ward by december if last season's average carries per game were extended for a whole season. :)

i didn't spell it out, but he doesn't need to amass anywhere close to 1,500 yards to justify his current ADP of around 13-14 (source - antsports)... that is also about where he is currently in FBG real time rankings. that seems to be what you have tried to focus on in this thread... not whether or not jones will be a bust... but will he justify his draft spot.

i was trying to find a "proxy" for jones... & think i found one in warrick dunn.

he averaged 4.2 yards per carry... exactly the same as jones.

he was 15th in the NFL in yards.

he was 15th in FBG scoring system by the '04 YTD stats for RBs.

he only had 29 receptions (27th among RBs)... this is probably in line with many jones projections.

he had no receiving TDs (neither did jones).

he had 9 rushing TDs (tied for 11th)... jones had 7 in 8 games... this is one place where i have higher expectations for jones... since he got 7 ineffectively a half a season, not sure why many are projecting him to do that in twice as many games?

how about the a-train factor... jones TDs went for distances of 1, 1, 4, 8, 10, 17 & 33... so even if thomas takes away a few 1 yard plunges as the 'goal-line" RB, some may have failed to appreciate his explosiveness (a-train won't be seeing many 33 yard plunges). note that attending to the amount of carries may or may not have much to do with the length of his TDs... unless you think that the more carries he gets it increases the liklihood he busts a long one...

not many people are commenting on the upside of having guys like thomas & barber to share load... it will keep him fresher in game, during the season & could prolong his career for dynasty leaguers. that could make him more explosive in second half... 4th quarter... end of season.

the same people that used the 'fresh legs" argument to dismiss his accomplishments could ironically probably appreciate this benefit. :)

so the bottom line...

if you don't project JJ to do as well as what dunn did last season... stay away.

if you think he does about the same... you are probably getting about close to fair value... (remember dunn had 265 carries... i see him getting 300+)

 
interesting stat by DY (i do appreciate that you help ground these discussions and in some cases temper the enthusiasm with statistical & historical insight) about jones being only the third RB in league history to get 30+ carries in three consecutive games.

so lets see what is behind curtain #2.

even if you THROW OUT those first three games with 30+ carries that you characterized as an inordinate amount of the workload... and this is throwing out a 150 yard game & a 198 yard game mind you... lets look at what he did in his last four games, in which he didn't get 30 carries once...

he had 88, 80, 57 & 149 yards = 1 yard shy of 375.

this STILL projects to nearly 1,500 yards.

and yes, i did see other arguments upthread which seem to revolve around the idea that because other teams will key on him, his stats are likely to diminish. but that seems to be specious & not hold any water.

without naming names, no one hear would have trouble naming multiple RBs that do well (over the course of a season) despite the concerted efforts of defenses to stop them. why should we assume it would be any different for jones.

just as we shouldn't ASSUME jones is a stud in the making (but look for evidence that he is, including, but not limited to... scouting info, game film, statistical & historical context he is embedded in, OL, system & scheme, HC tendencies, SOS... most of these have been looked at... though usually one strand will be separated out in isolation to make a particular point), we shouldn't assume he is mediocre, either. THAT is exactly the point which is in dispute.

good defenses can expose a bad RB. they can also make a good RB look like a bad RB (LT had some brutal YPC average games last season).
Bob -By accident, you helped illustrate just how overworked Jones was last year. As you said, IGNORING the three straight games with 30+ carries AND only using the 4 subsequent games (for 375 yards) . . .

Jones had 99 carries. That's a pace of 396 carries for a full season--and that's EXCLUDING ALL of the 30+ carry games.

I don't care which RB it is, if the over/under for carries is 396, I'm taking the under.

To be clear, I am not saying that Jones is not a decent RB and won't go on to be a productive back. He may even turn into a consistent Top 10 RB. However, I think that both Jones and the offense as a whole will have to grow into that production level. Yes, players like Emmitt, Terrell, Holmes, Sanders, and LT can step in and ignite offenses, but those are rare commodities. Overnight success is pretty rare.

Maybe Jones will turn into the next Curtis Martin (since he's been the one back used for comparisons). Martin has had a few elite seasons, but in terms of fantasy production he's been consistent and a dependable back. In recent years (last year notwithstanding) a good but not exceptional back. However, if Jones had the same stats that Martin did in the late 90s and early 00s, I suspect he would rank lower with the increase in RB productivity. (Basically, the totals from then would likely rank 4-6 spots lower circa 2005).

Again, I'm not suggesting Jones will bomb, only that I have tempered entusiam compared to where some people project him or are drafting him. If he falls in to the third, yes, I'm all over him.
DY-i didn't mean to say anything inadvertant... i am aware that 400 carries would be a historically improbable workload... not only improbable... but undesireable for jones' owners... i generally agree he would probably end up in the critical ward by december if last season's average carries per game were extended for a whole season. :)

i didn't spell it out, but he doesn't need to amass anywhere close to 1,500 yards to justify his current ADP of around 13-14 (source - antsports)... that is also about where he is currently in FBG real time rankings. that seems to be what you have tried to focus on in this thread... not whether or not jones will be a bust... but will he justify his draft spot.

i was trying to find a "proxy" for jones... & think i found one in warrick dunn.

he averaged 4.2 yards per carry... exactly the same as jones.

he was 15th in the NFL in yards.

he was 15th in FBG scoring system by the '04 YTD stats for RBs.

he only had 29 receptions (27th among RBs)... this is probably in line with many jones projections.

he had no receiving TDs (neither did jones).

he had 9 rushing TDs (tied for 11th)... jones had 7 in 8 games... this is one place where i have higher expectations for jones... since he got 7 ineffectively a half a season, not sure why many are projecting him to do that in twice as many games?

how about the a-train factor... jones TDs went for distances of 1, 1, 4, 8, 10, 17 & 33... so even if thomas takes away a few 1 yard plunges as the 'goal-line" RB, some may have failed to appreciate his explosiveness (a-train won't be seeing many 33 yard plunges). note that attending to the amount of carries may or may not have much to do with the length of his TDs... unless you think that the more carries he gets it increases the liklihood he busts a long one...

not many people are commenting on the upside of having guys like thomas & barber to share load... it will keep him fresher in game, during the season & could prolong his career for dynasty leaguers. that could make him more explosive in second half... 4th quarter... end of season.

the same people that used the 'fresh legs" argument to dismiss his accomplishments could ironically probably appreciate this benefit. :)

so the bottom line...

if you don't project JJ to do as well as what dunn did last season... stay away.

if you think he does about the same... you are probably getting about close to fair value... (remember dunn had 265 carries... i see him getting 300+)
This of course begs the question if you are going to get Warrick Dunn's production, why not take Dunn in the 4th or 5th than use a 1st on Jones?Now before people bash me on that one, I CLEARLY understand that Jones should do better than Dunn and has more opportunities based on volume alone.

HOWEVER . . . over the past three years, the Falcons have ranked 9th in terms of team fantasy points scored for RBs. And this has NOTHING to do with Vick--his numbers are not included.

Dallas in that time has ranked 28th in terms of team fantasy points scored by RBs. The difference was about 55 ppg on average (330 vs 275). That partly explains why Dunn did so well with a somewhat reduced workload--Atlanta RBs have been a very productive group.

 
Both Kevin and Julius Jones should be upper second round players, imho. If they have fine seasons in 2005, then we can talk about them being upper 1st rounders.

 
I also don't see the merit in criticizing an RB because he underperforms against good run defenses. We all downgrade RBs that face good run defenses during the season, and there is a good reason why - its because they tend to stop good RBs.I recall no-one could run against that 00 Ravens defense. That was a brick wall. Last year, the Redskins had the top run defense. They stopped Julius Jones. They also stopped Tiki Barber, Ahman Green, Rudi Johnson, Brian Westbrook, and Jerome Bettis. The only RB to do well against 04was looks to have been Jamal Lewis.

 
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I also don't see the merit in criticizing an RB because he underperforms against good run defenses. We all downgrade RBs that face good run defenses during the season, and there is a good reason why - its because they tend to stop good RBs.

I recall no-one could run against that 00 Ravens defense. That was a brick wall. Last year, the Redskins had the top run defense. They stopped Julius Jones. They also stopped Tiki Barber, Ahman Green, Rudi Johnson, Brian Westbrook, and Jerome Bettis. The only RB to do well against 04was looks to have been Jamal Lewis.
I don't think anyone is penalizing Jones for not doing as well against good defenses. However, people are concerned that his best games came against some really poor run defenses. Since there were a lot more games against mediocre competition in a very small sample size, some will say that Jones' numbers are inflated because it was not a "regular" schedule with good, average, and poor defenses all mixed together.Better stated, if Manning got to face the Raiders every week, his numbers should be leaps and bound better than if he faced the Steelers every week.

 
just for your information. Antsports has JJ as the 13th running back selected (15th overall) in its last 54 drafts.. Highest draft position 9, lowest 24..so I think that as the #13 draft pick, who are you going to get that is so much better?Again, just because a guy had 4 big games his first year doesn't mean he is going to be william green, he could just as well be Ricky or Emmitt Smith (and probably will not be as good as those two)

 
interesting stat by DY (i do appreciate that you help ground these discussions and in some cases temper the enthusiasm with statistical & historical insight) about jones being only the third RB in league history to get 30+ carries in three consecutive games.

so lets see what is behind curtain #2.

even if you THROW OUT those first three games with 30+ carries that you characterized as an inordinate amount of the workload... and this is throwing out a 150 yard game & a 198 yard game mind you... lets look at what he did in his last four games, in which he didn't get 30 carries once...

he had 88, 80, 57 & 149 yards = 1 yard shy of 375.

this STILL projects to nearly 1,500 yards.

and yes, i did see other arguments upthread which seem to revolve around the idea that because other teams will key on him, his stats are likely to diminish. but that seems to be specious & not hold any water.

without naming names, no one hear would have trouble naming multiple RBs that do well (over the course of a season) despite the concerted efforts of defenses to stop them. why should we assume it would be any different for jones.

just as we shouldn't ASSUME jones is a stud in the making (but look for evidence that he is, including, but not limited to... scouting info, game film, statistical & historical context he is embedded in, OL, system & scheme, HC tendencies, SOS... most of these have been looked at... though usually one strand will be separated out in isolation to make a particular point), we shouldn't assume he is mediocre, either. THAT is exactly the point which is in dispute.

good defenses can expose a bad RB. they can also make a good RB look like a bad RB (LT had some brutal YPC average games last season).
Bob -By accident, you helped illustrate just how overworked Jones was last year. As you said, IGNORING the three straight games with 30+ carries AND only using the 4 subsequent games (for 375 yards) . . .

Jones had 99 carries. That's a pace of 396 carries for a full season--and that's EXCLUDING ALL of the 30+ carry games.

I don't care which RB it is, if the over/under for carries is 396, I'm taking the under.

To be clear, I am not saying that Jones is not a decent RB and won't go on to be a productive back. He may even turn into a consistent Top 10 RB. However, I think that both Jones and the offense as a whole will have to grow into that production level. Yes, players like Emmitt, Terrell, Holmes, Sanders, and LT can step in and ignite offenses, but those are rare commodities. Overnight success is pretty rare.

Maybe Jones will turn into the next Curtis Martin (since he's been the one back used for comparisons). Martin has had a few elite seasons, but in terms of fantasy production he's been consistent and a dependable back. In recent years (last year notwithstanding) a good but not exceptional back. However, if Jones had the same stats that Martin did in the late 90s and early 00s, I suspect he would rank lower with the increase in RB productivity. (Basically, the totals from then would likely rank 4-6 spots lower circa 2005).

Again, I'm not suggesting Jones will bomb, only that I have tempered entusiam compared to where some people project him or are drafting him. If he falls in to the third, yes, I'm all over him.
DY-i didn't mean to say anything inadvertant... i am aware that 400 carries would be a historically improbable workload... not only improbable... but undesireable for jones' owners... i generally agree he would probably end up in the critical ward by december if last season's average carries per game were extended for a whole season. :)

i didn't spell it out, but he doesn't need to amass anywhere close to 1,500 yards to justify his current ADP of around 13-14 (source - antsports)... that is also about where he is currently in FBG real time rankings. that seems to be what you have tried to focus on in this thread... not whether or not jones will be a bust... but will he justify his draft spot.

i was trying to find a "proxy" for jones... & think i found one in warrick dunn.

he averaged 4.2 yards per carry... exactly the same as jones.

he was 15th in the NFL in yards.

he was 15th in FBG scoring system by the '04 YTD stats for RBs.

he only had 29 receptions (27th among RBs)... this is probably in line with many jones projections.

he had no receiving TDs (neither did jones).

he had 9 rushing TDs (tied for 11th)... jones had 7 in 8 games... this is one place where i have higher expectations for jones... since he got 7 ineffectively a half a season, not sure why many are projecting him to do that in twice as many games?

how about the a-train factor... jones TDs went for distances of 1, 1, 4, 8, 10, 17 & 33... so even if thomas takes away a few 1 yard plunges as the 'goal-line" RB, some may have failed to appreciate his explosiveness (a-train won't be seeing many 33 yard plunges). note that attending to the amount of carries may or may not have much to do with the length of his TDs... unless you think that the more carries he gets it increases the liklihood he busts a long one...

not many people are commenting on the upside of having guys like thomas & barber to share load... it will keep him fresher in game, during the season & could prolong his career for dynasty leaguers. that could make him more explosive in second half... 4th quarter... end of season.

the same people that used the 'fresh legs" argument to dismiss his accomplishments could ironically probably appreciate this benefit. :)

so the bottom line...

if you don't project JJ to do as well as what dunn did last season... stay away.

if you think he does about the same... you are probably getting about close to fair value... (remember dunn had 265 carries... i see him getting 300+)
This of course begs the question if you are going to get Warrick Dunn's production, why not take Dunn in the 4th or 5th than use a 1st on Jones?Now before people bash me on that one, I CLEARLY understand that Jones should do better than Dunn and has more opportunities based on volume alone.

HOWEVER . . . over the past three years, the Falcons have ranked 9th in terms of team fantasy points scored for RBs. And this has NOTHING to do with Vick--his numbers are not included.

Dallas in that time has ranked 28th in terms of team fantasy points scored by RBs. The difference was about 55 ppg on average (330 vs 275). That partly explains why Dunn did so well with a somewhat reduced workload--Atlanta RBs have been a very productive group.
now i am confused... do you mean you clearly understand jones should do better than dunn... based on what dunn did last year?if dunn finished #15 among RBs in FBG scoring system, & jones ADP is around 13-14 among RBs... are you saying you think he will outperform his ADP value. not trying to put words in your mouth, but that is what it sounds like. correct me if i'm wrong in interpreting this... i'm sure you will... :)

i know at another point upthread you noted he went at #8 overall in a recent draft of yours, & i think we are all clear on the need to not take somebody far too high for their ADP... but i am curious how you have him pegged relative to his ADP?

as to whether he racked up most of his yards in a limited data set comprised mostly of inferior run defenses... as opposed to a more distributed sample with good, average & bad defenses (not sure that was your thinking or you were putting out a concern others have expressed?)...

in his final 7 games...

WAS (#2) & BAL (#9) i would class as good...

PHI (#16) as average...

SEA (#23), CHI (#25), NYG (#28) & NO (#30) as bad...

not a completely even distribution... three of the teams good or average & four below average to bad... but not all bad either.

this season he gets SEA again, plus NYG twice (injured first game)... giants could be better with strahan healthy & pierce at MLB?

inter-division (in addition to NYG), he also gets aforementioned WAS X 2 (#2) & PHI X 2 (#16).

along with SEA he gets the rest of the below average run defense NFC west... SF (#20), ARI (#27) & STL (#29)...

as well as DET (#15) & CAR (#17) in NFC... panthers could be better with jenkins healthy & first round stud SS/OLB thomas davis.

afc contests comprised of all west division battles... SD (#3) & DEN (#4) look tough... KC (#12) looks average but i expect to be improved... OAK (#22) would fall into not very good category by most definitions.

so arguably a more even distribution of bad/average/good defenses...

but between 2 NYG games, NFC west & OAK... that is almost half his contests against below average run defenses...

PHI X 2, DET, CAR & KC another 5 against average defenses... from this group i'd move CAR to expected to be better, so lets call it 4... KC, too... but i'll wait & see since DJ a rookie & bell checkered medical history of late...

counting CAR, WAS X 2, SD & DEN... that leaves 5 games against tough defenses.

i wouldn't be overly concerned about the SOS... & it might even be considered favorable.

 
interesting stat by DY (i do appreciate that you help ground these discussions and in some cases temper the enthusiasm with statistical & historical insight) about jones being only the third RB in league history to get 30+ carries in three consecutive games.

so lets see what is behind curtain #2.

even if you THROW OUT those first three games with 30+ carries that you characterized as an inordinate amount of the workload... and this is throwing out a 150 yard game & a 198 yard game mind you... lets look at what he did in his last four games, in which he didn't get 30 carries once...

he had 88, 80, 57 & 149 yards = 1 yard shy of 375.

this STILL projects to nearly 1,500 yards.

and yes, i did see other arguments upthread which seem to revolve around the idea that because other teams will key on him, his stats are likely to diminish. but that seems to be specious & not hold any water.

without naming names, no one hear would have trouble naming multiple RBs that do well (over the course of a season) despite the concerted efforts of defenses to stop them. why should we assume it would be any different for jones.

just as we shouldn't ASSUME jones is a stud in the making (but look for evidence that he is, including, but not limited to... scouting info, game film, statistical & historical context he is embedded in, OL, system & scheme, HC tendencies, SOS... most of these have been looked at... though usually one strand will be separated out in isolation to make a particular point), we shouldn't assume he is mediocre, either. THAT is exactly the point which is in dispute.

good defenses can expose a bad RB. they can also make a good RB look like a bad RB (LT had some brutal YPC average games last season).
Bob -By accident, you helped illustrate just how overworked Jones was last year. As you said, IGNORING the three straight games with 30+ carries AND only using the 4 subsequent games (for 375 yards) . . .

Jones had 99 carries. That's a pace of 396 carries for a full season--and that's EXCLUDING ALL of the 30+ carry games.

I don't care which RB it is, if the over/under for carries is 396, I'm taking the under.

To be clear, I am not saying that Jones is not a decent RB and won't go on to be a productive back. He may even turn into a consistent Top 10 RB. However, I think that both Jones and the offense as a whole will have to grow into that production level. Yes, players like Emmitt, Terrell, Holmes, Sanders, and LT can step in and ignite offenses, but those are rare commodities. Overnight success is pretty rare.

Maybe Jones will turn into the next Curtis Martin (since he's been the one back used for comparisons). Martin has had a few elite seasons, but in terms of fantasy production he's been consistent and a dependable back. In recent years (last year notwithstanding) a good but not exceptional back. However, if Jones had the same stats that Martin did in the late 90s and early 00s, I suspect he would rank lower with the increase in RB productivity. (Basically, the totals from then would likely rank 4-6 spots lower circa 2005).

Again, I'm not suggesting Jones will bomb, only that I have tempered entusiam compared to where some people project him or are drafting him. If he falls in to the third, yes, I'm all over him.
DY-i didn't mean to say anything inadvertant... i am aware that 400 carries would be a historically improbable workload... not only improbable... but undesireable for jones' owners... i generally agree he would probably end up in the critical ward by december if last season's average carries per game were extended for a whole season. :)

i didn't spell it out, but he doesn't need to amass anywhere close to 1,500 yards to justify his current ADP of around 13-14 (source - antsports)... that is also about where he is currently in FBG real time rankings. that seems to be what you have tried to focus on in this thread... not whether or not jones will be a bust... but will he justify his draft spot.

i was trying to find a "proxy" for jones... & think i found one in warrick dunn.

he averaged 4.2 yards per carry... exactly the same as jones.

he was 15th in the NFL in yards.

he was 15th in FBG scoring system by the '04 YTD stats for RBs.

he only had 29 receptions (27th among RBs)... this is probably in line with many jones projections.

he had no receiving TDs (neither did jones).

he had 9 rushing TDs (tied for 11th)... jones had 7 in 8 games... this is one place where i have higher expectations for jones... since he got 7 ineffectively a half a season, not sure why many are projecting him to do that in twice as many games?

how about the a-train factor... jones TDs went for distances of 1, 1, 4, 8, 10, 17 & 33... so even if thomas takes away a few 1 yard plunges as the 'goal-line" RB, some may have failed to appreciate his explosiveness (a-train won't be seeing many 33 yard plunges). note that attending to the amount of carries may or may not have much to do with the length of his TDs... unless you think that the more carries he gets it increases the liklihood he busts a long one...

not many people are commenting on the upside of having guys like thomas & barber to share load... it will keep him fresher in game, during the season & could prolong his career for dynasty leaguers. that could make him more explosive in second half... 4th quarter... end of season.

the same people that used the 'fresh legs" argument to dismiss his accomplishments could ironically probably appreciate this benefit. :)

so the bottom line...

if you don't project JJ to do as well as what dunn did last season... stay away.

if you think he does about the same... you are probably getting about close to fair value... (remember dunn had 265 carries... i see him getting 300+)
This of course begs the question if you are going to get Warrick Dunn's production, why not take Dunn in the 4th or 5th than use a 1st on Jones?Now before people bash me on that one, I CLEARLY understand that Jones should do better than Dunn and has more opportunities based on volume alone.

HOWEVER . . . over the past three years, the Falcons have ranked 9th in terms of team fantasy points scored for RBs. And this has NOTHING to do with Vick--his numbers are not included.

Dallas in that time has ranked 28th in terms of team fantasy points scored by RBs. The difference was about 55 ppg on average (330 vs 275). That partly explains why Dunn did so well with a somewhat reduced workload--Atlanta RBs have been a very productive group.
now i am confused... do you mean you clearly understand jones should do better than dunn... based on what dunn did last year?if dunn finished #15 among RBs in FBG scoring system, & jones ADP is around 13-14 among RBs... are you saying you think he will outperform his ADP value. not trying to put words in your mouth, but that is what it sounds like. correct me if i'm wrong in interpreting this... i'm sure you will... :)

i know at another point upthread you noted he went at #8 overall in a recent draft of yours, & i think we are all clear on the need to not take somebody far too high for their ADP... but i am curious how you have him pegged relative to his ADP?

as to whether he racked up most of his yards in a limited data set comprised mostly of inferior run defenses... as opposed to a more distributed sample with good, average & bad defenses (not sure that was your thinking or you were putting out a concern others have expressed?)...

in his final 7 games...

WAS (#2) & BAL (#9) i would class as good...

PHI (#16) as average...

SEA (#23), CHI (#25), NYG (#28) & NO (#30) as bad...

not a completely even distribution... three of the teams good or average & four below average to bad... but not all bad either.

this season he gets SEA again, plus NYG twice (injured first game)... giants could be better with strahan healthy & pierce at MLB?

inter-division (in addition to NYG), he also gets aforementioned WAS X 2 (#2) & PHI X 2 (#16).

along with SEA he gets the rest of the below average run defense NFC west... SF (#20), ARI (#27) & STL (#29)...

as well as DET (#15) & CAR (#17) in NFC... panthers could be better with jenkins healthy & first round stud SS/OLB thomas davis.

afc contests comprised of all west division battles... SD (#3) & DEN (#4) look tough... KC (#12) looks average but i expect to be improved... OAK (#22) would fall into not very good category by most definitions.

so arguably a more even distribution of bad/average/good defenses...

but between 2 NYG games, NFC west & OAK... that is almost half his contests against below average run defenses...

PHI X 2, DET, CAR & KC another 5 against average defenses... from this group i'd move CAR to expected to be better, so lets call it 4... KC, too... but i'll wait & see since DJ a rookie & bell checkered medical history of late...

counting CAR, WAS X 2, SD & DEN... that leaves 5 games against tough defenses.

i wouldn't be overly concerned about the SOS... & it might even be considered favorable.
I meant Jones in 2005 > than Dunn in 2005 for total production. Dunn last year was a great value pick, as he went as a RB in the 20s and produced RB15 production.If Jones is in the RB8-10 range but produces as the RB15, you get the same numbers but you get negative value.

So in theory if Dunn as the #28 RB off the board matches Jones at #8 off the board in terms of fantasy production, then Dunn was worth WAY more than Jones value wise.

I doubt Dunn will get anywhere near the workload that Jones should (could?) get. Dunn set career highs in carries and TD last year, and I suspect he will return closer to normal for his production levels. So Dunn should again be ranked around the #20 spot.

I suspect that Jones could get 18-20 carries on average, but I don't see the 25-35 range like he had last year. Given what I see as limited TD opportunities (could be way off here), I think Jones will be a decent to average RB2. Since in SOME drafts he is getting drafted as a RB1, that would make his ROI negative.

 
I continue to be confused about this ADP of around 8.. If there is one league somebody plays in and he was taken at 8 but there are 50 other drafts where on average he is taken at 13, then his ADP is about 13....don't forget that in the one league that somebody took him at 8 they may have a reason to grab him there ahead of other players.. maybe the owner is a cowboys or ND fan, maybe he just likes Julius, maybe he just reached.. but to say that he is being taken at 8 is not really true.. Zealots have him around 12, antsport around 13 and the FBG projections have him somwhere around 12/13 also..

 
Through week 12 he is not looking as hot as he was touted throughout the summer on these boards.His YPC for the year is 3.5 ypc and has yet to break 100 yds despite having 20+ carries in 6 games. Ironically enough, Willie Green averaged 3.9 ypc before going out for the year around week 7.Thus far, these guys look similar and it appears that Marion Barber is taking a role on the 'boys similar to what Suggs did. The games I've watched, he has not impressed me at all (which truthfully is 4 games, but nonetheless, I was unimpressed).Jones = 2005 version of Willie Green

 

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