interesting stat by DY (i do appreciate that you help ground these discussions and in some cases temper the enthusiasm with statistical & historical insight) about jones being only the third RB in league history to get 30+ carries in three consecutive games.
so lets see what is behind curtain #2.
even if you THROW OUT those first three games with 30+ carries that you characterized as an inordinate amount of the workload... and this is throwing out a 150 yard game & a 198 yard game mind you... lets look at what he did in his last four games, in which he didn't get 30 carries once...
he had 88, 80, 57 & 149 yards = 1 yard shy of 375.
this STILL projects to nearly 1,500 yards.
and yes, i did see other arguments upthread which seem to revolve around the idea that because other teams will key on him, his stats are likely to diminish. but that seems to be specious & not hold any water.
without naming names, no one hear would have trouble naming multiple RBs that do well (over the course of a season) despite the concerted efforts of defenses to stop them. why should we assume it would be any different for jones.
just as we shouldn't ASSUME jones is a stud in the making (but look for evidence that he is, including, but not limited to... scouting info, game film, statistical & historical context he is embedded in, OL, system & scheme, HC tendencies, SOS... most of these have been looked at... though usually one strand will be separated out in isolation to make a particular point), we shouldn't assume he is mediocre, either. THAT is exactly the point which is in dispute.
good defenses can expose a bad RB. they can also make a good RB look like a bad RB (LT had some brutal YPC average games last season).
Bob -By accident, you helped illustrate just how overworked Jones was last year. As you said, IGNORING the three straight games with 30+ carries AND only using the 4 subsequent games (for 375 yards) . . .
Jones had 99 carries. That's a pace of 396 carries for a full season--and that's EXCLUDING ALL of the 30+ carry games.
I don't care which RB it is, if the over/under for carries is 396, I'm taking the under.
To be clear, I am not saying that Jones is not a decent RB and won't go on to be a productive back. He may even turn into a consistent Top 10 RB. However, I think that both Jones and the offense as a whole will have to grow into that production level. Yes, players like Emmitt, Terrell, Holmes, Sanders, and LT can step in and ignite offenses, but those are rare commodities. Overnight success is pretty rare.
Maybe Jones will turn into the next Curtis Martin (since he's been the one back used for comparisons). Martin has had a few elite seasons, but in terms of fantasy production he's been consistent and a dependable back. In recent years (last year notwithstanding) a good but not exceptional back. However, if Jones had the same stats that Martin did in the late 90s and early 00s, I suspect he would rank lower with the increase in RB productivity. (Basically, the totals from then would likely rank 4-6 spots lower circa 2005).
Again, I'm not suggesting Jones will bomb, only that I have tempered entusiam compared to where some people project him or are drafting him. If he falls in to the third, yes, I'm all over him.
DY-i didn't mean to say anything inadvertant... i am aware that 400 carries would be a historically improbable workload... not only improbable... but undesireable for jones' owners... i generally agree he would probably end up in the critical ward by december if last season's average carries per game were extended for a whole season.
i didn't spell it out, but he doesn't need to amass anywhere close to 1,500 yards to justify his current ADP of around 13-14 (source - antsports)... that is also about where he is currently in FBG real time rankings. that seems to be what you have tried to focus on in this thread... not whether or not jones will be a bust... but will he justify his draft spot.
i was trying to find a "proxy" for jones... & think i found one in warrick dunn.
he averaged 4.2 yards per carry... exactly the same as jones.
he was 15th in the NFL in yards.
he was 15th in FBG scoring system by the '04 YTD stats for RBs.
he only had 29 receptions (27th among RBs)... this is probably in line with many jones projections.
he had no receiving TDs (neither did jones).
he had 9 rushing TDs (tied for 11th)... jones had 7 in 8 games... this is one place where i have higher expectations for jones... since he got 7 ineffectively a half a season, not sure why many are projecting him to do that in twice as many games?
how about the a-train factor... jones TDs went for distances of 1, 1, 4, 8, 10, 17 & 33... so even if thomas takes away a few 1 yard plunges as the 'goal-line" RB, some may have failed to appreciate his explosiveness (a-train won't be seeing many 33 yard plunges). note that attending to the amount of carries may or may not have much to do with the length of his TDs... unless you think that the more carries he gets it increases the liklihood he busts a long one...
not many people are commenting on the upside of having guys like thomas & barber to share load... it will keep him fresher in game, during the season & could prolong his career for dynasty leaguers. that could make him more explosive in second half... 4th quarter... end of season.
the same people that used the 'fresh legs" argument to dismiss his accomplishments could ironically probably appreciate this benefit.
so the bottom line...
if you don't project JJ to do as well as what dunn did last season... stay away.
if you think he does about the same... you are probably getting about close to fair value... (remember dunn had 265 carries... i see him getting 300+)
This of course begs the question if you are going to get Warrick Dunn's production, why not take Dunn in the 4th or 5th than use a 1st on Jones?Now before people bash me on that one, I CLEARLY understand that Jones should do better than Dunn and has more opportunities based on volume alone.
HOWEVER . . . over the past three years, the Falcons have ranked 9th in terms of team fantasy points scored for RBs. And this has NOTHING to do with Vick--his numbers are not included.
Dallas in that time has ranked 28th in terms of team fantasy points scored by RBs. The difference was about 55 ppg on average (330 vs 275). That partly explains why Dunn did so well with a somewhat reduced workload--Atlanta RBs have been a very productive group.
now i am confused... do you mean you clearly understand jones should do better than dunn... based on what dunn did last year?if dunn finished #15 among RBs in FBG scoring system, & jones ADP is around 13-14 among RBs... are you saying you think he will outperform his ADP value. not trying to put words in your mouth, but that is what it sounds like. correct me if i'm wrong in interpreting this... i'm sure you will...
i know at another point upthread you noted he went at #8 overall in a recent draft of yours, & i think we are all clear on the need to not take somebody far too high for their ADP... but i am curious how you have him pegged relative to his ADP?
as to whether he racked up most of his yards in a limited data set comprised mostly of inferior run defenses... as opposed to a more distributed sample with good, average & bad defenses (not sure that was your thinking or you were putting out a concern others have expressed?)...
in his final 7 games...
WAS (#2) & BAL (#9) i would class as good...
PHI (#16) as average...
SEA (#23), CHI (#25), NYG (#28) & NO (#30) as bad...
not a completely even distribution... three of the teams good or average & four below average to bad... but not all bad either.
this season he gets SEA again, plus NYG twice (injured first game)... giants could be better with strahan healthy & pierce at MLB?
inter-division (in addition to NYG), he also gets aforementioned WAS X 2 (#2) & PHI X 2 (#16).
along with SEA he gets the rest of the below average run defense NFC west... SF (#20), ARI (#27) & STL (#29)...
as well as DET (#15) & CAR (#17) in NFC... panthers could be better with jenkins healthy & first round stud SS/OLB thomas davis.
afc contests comprised of all west division battles... SD (#3) & DEN (#4) look tough... KC (#12) looks average but i expect to be improved... OAK (#22) would fall into not very good category by most definitions.
so arguably a more even distribution of bad/average/good defenses...
but between 2 NYG games, NFC west & OAK... that is almost half his contests against below average run defenses...
PHI X 2, DET, CAR & KC another 5 against average defenses... from this group i'd move CAR to expected to be better, so lets call it 4... KC, too... but i'll wait & see since DJ a rookie & bell checkered medical history of late...
counting CAR, WAS X 2, SD & DEN... that leaves 5 games against tough defenses.
i wouldn't be overly concerned about the SOS... & it might even be considered favorable.