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And the probability that Jeff will rank precisely 5th in points and 5th in points against is roughly 1/144, which is the specific case that people are getting tripped up on. The original question is general; what are the odds that any team in the league does it? (1/12).
I'm willing to assert that fantasy football outcomes follow a normal distribution when large enough populations are sampled.
No, I don't see what you're getting at. Ascribing a bunch of events that did or didn't happen, after the fact, and stating that that proves that the probabilities were wrong to start with is completely ridiculous. Of course, you can keep adding as many variables as you want, and each one you add will change the probability. You could do that till the end of time, and never come up with a "true" probability. You're saying that the probability can't be 1/144 because one of the teams will be better than the other? You don't understand probabilities.
Exactly.The more samples you take, the more predictable it looks, and patterns emerge.However, any given smaller set of data will have inherent.... randomness, that will cause that smaller sample to deviate from the norm.
I'll take this a step further. We can all agree that a coin flip is 50/50, right? But yet, if you look at the history of Super Bowl coin flips, heads if favored over tails, I believe. So does that mean it isn't 50/50? Of course not. So I flip the coin. But now we analyze rotation and speed, wind factors, and we see that RIGHT AFTER the flip, the chances are not 50/50. But you can't use hindsight to look back at events to determine what the probability was before the events. That is what your example does. It starts out 1/144, but then you start throwing in other variables: one team sucks, the sucky team plays the best team several times and other teams no times. No sh## things change when you change things.
Getting tired of this. As stated multiple times, all my analysis was that a SPECIFIC TEAM fit both qualities. That it happens to any team in the league is exactly as Ignatio and CalBear describe.In the spirit of disagreement that has permeated this thread I am forced to respond that "you are wrong"because the guy who had the most total points in your league also had the FEWEST points against
and on the subject of the 1 in 144 vs. 1 in 12, Instinctive's name is accurate because his logic is not...the answer is far closer to 1 in 12 than 1 in 144*
* the reason it isn't exactly 1 in 12 is for the reason others have already cited
Not to keep pushing your buttons, but if this is the case, why were you disagreeing with multiple posts that were making that exact point to you earlier?
No buttons
I'm a college student and it was an early morning on dead week after the first night back after winning the Big XII ---> plus I thought the OP was asking for what I gave --> I assumed you were doing what the OP asked as well ---> didn't think to recheck that I had been the one who interpreted OP's question wrong and assumed it was you.Now I've had some sleep after class and I'm back on my game, aka, I actually have reading comprehension now
Not necessarily. I made it through the FBG Survivor Contest thing to the second leg (was then unable to make a draft) largely on the basis of two weeks at 11-0, in spite of only winning 12 more games, total, in the other 3 weeks iirc.All-Play rewards boom/bust teams just as much as consistent ones. As long as the consistent one if above average consistently, and the boom bust team never goes below 7th-9th or so (12 teams), they'll both be at the top of total standings.
being 1st in points=1/12; being 1st in points against=1/12; 1/12 x 1/12=1/144being 2nd in points=1/12; being 2nd in points against=1/12; 1/12 x 1/12=1/144being 3d in points=1/12; being 3d in points against=1/12; 1/12 x 1/12=1/144being 4th in points=1/12; being 4th in points against=1/12; 1/12 x 1/12=1/144being 5th in points=1/12; being 5th in points against=1/12; 1/12 x 1/12=1/144being 6th in points=1/12; being 6th in points against=1/12; 1/12 x 1/12=1/144being 7th in points=1/12; being 7th in points against=1/12; 1/12 x 1/12=1/144being 8th in points=1/12; being 8th in points against=1/12; 1/12 x 1/12=1/144being 9th in points=1/12; being 9th in points against=1/12; 1/12 x 1/12=1/144being 10th in points=1/12; being 10th in points against=1/12; 1/12 x 1/12=1/144being 11th in points=1/12; being 11th in points against=1/12; 1/12 x 1/12=1/144being 12th in points=1/12; being 12th in points against=1/12; 1/12 x 1/12=1/144Twelve possibilities, total odds of 12/144 = 1/12jackdubl said:
I think you're forgetting a few possibilities...
