Just for BostonFred (1 Viewer)

[bagger.]

i'm not saying that priest will fall to the 3rd, but the 2nd is a possibility.just like tiki barber and curtis martin last year, there will be bonafied value in the 3rd round and 4th rounds this year, as there always is.if you are paying attention, you can grab it.

 

[bostonfred]

What the hell have you guys done to my thread? Does this say "Just For Bagger"? NO.

 

[Wilbur Wood]

Not to dampen the enthusiasm, but my $0.02 from the peanut gallery.Preface my comments by stating that I do subscribe to a VBD approach to drafting, modified on the fly to fit the unique ebbs and flows of a draft.I approached this thread with some interest and have over 2 days weeded my way through the whole thing. Upon reflection, although there was a lot of data presented and debate regarding better ways to slice and dice the data, I did not find anything new or insightful that would really in anyway alter my approach to a 2005 basic draft for a basic league with basic scoring. I would still look at last years VBD, VBD based upon some "projections" for 2005 and some ADP data.Most injuries are random. Basic leagues will still greatly favor RB's in the early rounds. One can win by drafting a Stud QB or Stud WR, provided that they have a Stud year and provided that the requisite "step down" at RB is Tiki Barber or Curtis Martin (circa 2004) and not William Green (circa 2003).With all the passion and energy put into this thread, I highly recommend that you all play in more $$ auction leagues and/or leagues with less plain vanilla scoring/lineup requirements as these formats lend themselves to more rigorous analytical strategies. You will get a much larger payback on your invested time by devoting your analytical energies into these pursuits than beating into the ground the same old stuff for a hypothetical 12 team, basic scoring, serpentine draft league as these grounds have been more than adequately harvested and thus the marginal return on investment has become de minimis.

 

[Marc Levin]

Several people have made the point that RBs aren't as valuable in years past.  I don't buy it and am arguing that a couple of anomolies in a small sample group have skew the results and are not a definable trend.  I'm looking forward to Priest sliding to me in the second and third rounds.

People are inevitably going to overreact to the success at QB and WR from last year and give the age old argument of "the RB class is deeper" when it really is not.

This should give people who are paying attention some big value plays at the RB position in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds in 2005.

If Priest slides to me as a RB2 (or in the second round) in ANY of my drafts this year, I expect to see some more titles with the "Levin" name on them.Healthy Priest should = first round pick in any non-dynsaty 10 team+ draft.

 

[bostonfred]

Several people have made the point that RBs aren't as valuable in years past.  I don't buy it and am arguing that a couple of anomolies in a small sample group have skew the results and are not a definable trend.  I'm looking forward to Priest sliding to me in the second and third rounds.

People are inevitably going to overreact to the success at QB and WR from last year and give the age old argument of "the RB class is deeper" when it really is not.

This should give people who are paying attention some big value plays at the RB position in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds in 2005.

If Priest slides to me as a RB2 (or in the second round) in ANY of my drafts this year, I expect to see some more titles with the "Levin" name on them.Healthy Priest should = first round pick in any non-dynsaty 10 team+ draft.

You'd better take Larry Johnson in the fourth though.

 

[Marc Levin]

I don't buy for a second that top RB are going to fall much at all. Priest Holmes will be a first round pick in 98% of leagues. So instead of 25 RB gone in the first 36 picks, maybe there will be 25 RB gone in the first 40 picks.The bottom tier guys will still be the same guys with question marks or in less than optimal environments. There won't be Ahman Greens going in the fourth round. You'll probably see players like Duckett, Suggs, Bennet, OSmith, Barlow, Droughns, Staley, Bettis, Pittman, Faulk, one of the rookies, etc. still there in the bottom of round 3/top of round 4. IMO, those are far from can't miss options at RB.

Yudkin, as usual, makes the point correctly - it isn't the first two rounds and elite players that matter when talking about a "deep" class of RBs - it is what will be there in the upper middle rounds that affects what I do knowing there is "depth." For example, if I think RBs and QBs are "deep" it doesn't mean I pass on AGreen or Peyton in the early second - it means I may pass on the RB 18 or QB 10 in the third/fourth/fifth knowing that the RB25/QB15 could be just as good for me a round later.When saying there is "depth" somewhere, every drafter makes a FATAL flaw by saying they can pass on a position in the first two rounds since there are others at the position available later.

 

[Marc Levin]

Several people have made the point that RBs aren't as valuable in years past.  I don't buy it and am arguing that a couple of anomolies in a small sample group have skew the results and are not a definable trend.  I'm looking forward to Priest sliding to me in the second and third rounds.

People are inevitably going to overreact to the success at QB and WR from last year and give the age old argument of "the RB class is deeper" when it really is not.

This should give people who are paying attention some big value plays at the RB position in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds in 2005.

If Priest slides to me as a RB2 (or in the second round) in ANY of my drafts this year, I expect to see some more titles with the "Levin" name on them.Healthy Priest should = first round pick in any non-dynsaty 10 team+ draft.

You'd better take Larry Johnson in the fourth though.

That's what killed me in SOSII - leaving Blaylock and LJ by the wayside when I drafted Priest.Edit: disagree, too - if I can get OSmith in the fourth/fifth instead, I may do that over LJ that early, since Priest would be my RB2 in the scenario above.

 

[bagger.]

What the hell have you guys done to my thread? Does this say "Just For Bagger"? NO.

:rotflmao:

 

[BassNBrew]

What the hell have you guys done to my thread?  Does this say "Just For Bagger"?  NO.

:rotflmao:

bagger needs more help then you bfred.

 

[Marc Levin]

What the hell have you guys done to my thread?  Does this say "Just For Bagger"?  NO.

:rotflmao:

bagger needs more help then you bfred.

:rotflmao: Maybe this thread should be "just for you, Levin" I am feeling particularly guppyish these days while I regain my FF chops.

 

[BassNBrew]

What the hell have you guys done to my thread?  Does this say "Just For Bagger"?  NO.

:rotflmao:

bagger needs more help then you bfred.

:rotflmao: Maybe this thread should be "just for you, Levin" I am feeling particularly guppyish these days while I regain my FF chops.

At least I didn't call you a $#&^%$$ moron.

 

[Marc Levin]

At least I didn't call you a $#&^%$$ moron.

That hurts. Really.

 

[Family Matters]

I don't buy for a second that top RB are going to fall much at all.  Priest Holmes will be a first round pick in 98% of leagues.  So instead of 25 RB gone in the first 36 picks, maybe there will be 25 RB gone in the first 40 picks.

The bottom tier guys will still be the same guys with question marks or in less than optimal environments.  There won't be Ahman Greens going in the fourth round.  You'll probably see players like Duckett, Suggs, Bennet, OSmith, Barlow, Droughns, Staley, Bettis, Pittman, Faulk, one of the rookies, etc. still there in the bottom of round 3/top of round 4.  IMO, those are far from can't miss options at RB.

Yudkin, as usual, makes the point correctly - it isn't the first two rounds and elite players that matter when talking about a "deep" class of RBs - it is what will be there in the upper middle rounds that affects what I do knowing there is "depth."For example, if I think RBs and QBs are "deep" it doesn't mean I pass on AGreen or Peyton in the early second - it means I may pass on the RB 18 or QB 10 in the third/fourth/fifth knowing that the RB25/QB15 could be just as good for me a round later.

When saying there is "depth" somewhere, every drafter makes a FATAL flaw by saying they can pass on a position in the first two rounds since there are others at the position available later.

This could be one of the best posts so far. Thanks Marc. Your observation is on target. I've seen this mistake repeated frequently including myself before. Sometimes we outsmart ourselves.