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Justin B14ckmon. Production? (no Blackmon player spotlight) (1 Viewer)

B

BigSteelThrill

Footballguy
Julio Jones-esque type of rookie productivity?

60 - 900 - 7

The Jaguars threw for only 12 total TDs last year. And only 2500 yards.

:unsure:

 
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That seems very, very optimistic. Seems like given his QB/team situation, Megatron-type rookie production is a more realistic ceiling.

50-750-5

 
Justin played in about 7 quarters of football this preseason with 136 yards and 1 TD. Projected out to a full seasons it hits around 1,200 yards and 9 TDs. While I do not expect that kind of production for him, I do not think 900 and 7 is crazy. The kid can play.

 
Are you saying Gabbert will drive him to drink? I can see that...

As for WR1 production I think I'll take the under, say 50/800/6

 
i did not see him play a down in the preseason but from the threads i've read, it appears as though he was worth that high draft pick. if he keeps his head on straight (not a minor concern, imo), i'm more optimistic that the OP: 70/1000/8.

 
Represents great value where he is drafted. Will outperform adp for sure and probably ends up being a top 20 wr pick in next years draft

 
I just wanted to add for those that have not seen Blackmon play this preseason, he does not look like a rookie. He is running crisp route, fighting for every ball(winning most) and has an extreme quick transition from catch to getting up field.

 
sometimes wrs are so good a bad qb can just throw it up to him and make him get it. guys like fitz, aj green, and calvin without stafford, etc. if blackmon is as good as everyone says he is, gabbert as his qb is a non-issue and he will be a steal

 
'shadyridr said:
sometimes wrs are so good a bad qb can just throw it up to him and make him get it. guys like fitz, aj green, and calvin without stafford, etc. if blackmon is as good as everyone says he is, gabbert as his qb is a non-issue and he will be a steal
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This exactly. I'll be buying Blackmon and not caring too much about Gabbert.
 
'pecorino said:
i did not see him play a down in the preseason but from the threads i've read, it appears as though he was worth that high draft pick. if he keeps his head on straight (not a minor concern, imo), i'm more optimistic that the OP: 70/1000/8.
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i watched highlights. he fought for the ball to make difficult catches and was impressive breaking tackles for extra yards. reminds me of a young boldin. those two things makes me think he can post respectable numbers despite gabbarts suckiness. something like 76-1000-6 seems reasonable
 
One thing that bugs me a smidge, is bringing up rookie seasons like Calvin and Larry Fitzgerald's. Calvin was hurt in one of the early games playing against the Eagles and wasn't feeling right until a few months after the end of the season. Fitzgerald injured his ankle in only his second game and he didn't get better until he had a chance to rest it. In fact, it seems as though injury is one of the main detriments for these rookie wrs (see A.J. Green and Julio Jones who both spent part of the season with injuries.

When I see Justin Blackmon play, he seems like a possesion guy who can also be a red zone threat. I would expect, barring injury, around 1000 and 7 for his rookies numbers.

 
One more point, I put him in the Boldin, Crabtree category. Generally, these type of receivers have an easy time transitioning to receptions in the nfl as they will see a good amount of short receptions. Even Crabtree in his holdout laden rookie season was on pace for 69 receptions and 909 yards.

 
What's funny is.....I wrote him off after he got that DUI at .24 bac.....then I got boxed in a corner in one of my drafts, ended up taking him in the 10th rd as my wr 3......then I see him play those 1st two games in preseason.....OK..alright...

I'm a lot more comfortable w/him as my WR 3 now....so much so that I ended up picking him in an addl league (auction) at a

bit of premium over what I considered fmv.

I'm expecting Gabbert is going to force feed him a lot of balls. If he can get to 65-70 recpts...925+ yards, and 5+ TD, it will turn out to be a nice solid pick. I'm on board. :thumbup:

 
I think he has 90/1200/9 upside.

I don't like the Julio comparisons, Julio had significantly more competition for balls and Blackmon is more polished as a rookie.

Needless to say I've been targeting Blackmon at his current ADP.

 
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'cmv5 said:
One thing that bugs me a smidge, is bringing up rookie seasons like Calvin and Larry Fitzgerald's. Calvin was hurt in one of the early games playing against the Eagles and wasn't feeling right until a few months after the end of the season. Fitzgerald injured his ankle in only his second game and he didn't get better until he had a chance to rest it. In fact, it seems as though injury is one of the main detriments for these rookie wrs (see A.J. Green and Julio Jones who both spent part of the season with injuries.

When I see Justin Blackmon play, he seems like a possession guy who can also be a red zone threat. I would expect, barring injury, around 1000 and 7 for his rookies numbers.
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I agree with this... I think he is going to be a monster in this league, looks like a T.O., Anquan Boldin type of player... and he is definitely the type of WR that makes an average QB look like a good one... and let's not forget Blaine Gabbert didn't have crap to throw to last year... so we can't completely write him off yet.. he has looked much better this pre-season70-85 receptions, 900-1100 yards, 6-10 td's.. which would make him a good WR#3 with upside... and a great WR#4

 
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Given Gabbert's youth and tendency for intermediate passes, I can see a 75/850/8 rookie season. Modest YPC with a higher than average rec/td ratio due to his physicality in the red zone.

 
Just checking around various resources, which have done much of the research already for me. It seems that Blackmon has a very favorable matchup for most of the season in regards to fantasy pts allowed per game for WR's. I don't what these teams have done for adjustments to make themselves better. But there can only be but so much turnaround from season to season. After playing the Vikings in week 1 and the Colts in week 3, it might be hard to acquire Blackmon should you wish to do so at a quality price.

If I remember correctly, the Patriots were playing a "We'll allow you to gain yards but no points" type of game last year, and that's somewhat favorable if Blackmon get that first or second TD and even more so if you play ppr . If you make it that far, Jacksonville plays NE week 16 in Jacksonville. The Patriots were one of the best teams your WR could face any given week last year.

 
Does anyone think it's possible Jacksonville was so anemic last year because they didn't have weapons?

Blackmon is a huge upgrade and he will be targetted frequently.

 
I got moans and groans when I snagged him in my draft. I certainly wasn't the only one with good expectations. Preseason is solid, but would like to see something. Was hoping he'd turn into trade bait but he certainly hasn't today.

 
Blackmon is a rookie but he looked scintilating in the preseason.

Gabby has regressed and it seems he is dragging down Blackmon's chances.

First game passing numbers for Gabbert against Minnesota>>

- passing yards 260

- 2 passing TDs

Second game passing numbers against Houston>>

- 53 passing yards

- 1 TD

He had a much tougher go of it facing Houston and had/has some sort of upper leg injury but he's fine to play.

Also today he's facing Indy so he should re-gain the passing yards he lost to Houston which could mean a bump for Blackmon.

WR Justin Blackmon's recieving numbers--

First game against Minnesota>>

- 3 receptions

- 24 passing yards

- 0 TDs

Second game against Houston>>

- 0 receptions

- 0 yards

- 0 TDs

I am high on Justin's talent but after last week I question the situation with Gabbert but this week looks like it could be his week to bust out.

What is the gut feeling on Blackmon?

 
He is in my lineup today as wr3 over s. rice, a. Hawkins, b. hartline, and j. Simpson.

I like the matchup andmy gut tells me this is the week were Blackmon has his coming out party but I've been known to be wrong...very wrong lol.

GL!

 
I think he is now droppable in redraft leagues. I have no doubt that things will come together for him at some pt this season and obviously he is a hold/bench stash for dynasty leaguers. It's a combo of him learning the offense and the speed at which the nfl operates at, and Blaine gabbert sucking.

 
'rickyg said:
I think he is now droppable in redraft leagues. I have no doubt that things will come together for him at some pt this season and obviously he is a hold/bench stash for dynasty leaguers. It's a combo of him learning the offense and the speed at which the nfl operates at, and Blaine gabbert sucking.
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I think this is clearly the situation at this point. The Jags have been running a conservation game plan(21 passing attempts this week) and on top of that Gabbert has been spreading out the the few targets available. No players on the Jags has more than 16 targets and seven players have at least 6. Until the Jaguars decide to to open up the passing game and he finds some chemistry with the QB there simply will not be enough opportunity for Blackmon to be fantasy relevant.
 
'Wadsworth said:
'rickyg said:
I think he is now droppable in redraft leagues. I have no doubt that things will come together for him at some pt this season and obviously he is a hold/bench stash for dynasty leaguers. It's a combo of him learning the offense and the speed at which the nfl operates at, and Blaine gabbert sucking.
Click to expand...
I think this is clearly the situation at this point. The Jags have been running a conservation game plan(21 passing attempts this week) and on top of that Gabbert has been spreading out the the few targets available. No players on the Jags has more than 16 targets and seven players have at least 6. Until the Jaguars decide to to open up the passing game and he finds some chemistry with the QB there simply will not be enough opportunity for Blackmon to be fantasy relevant.
Click to expand...
Not much to personally add other than to agree and share the reasoning from sources why I agree with you.JB's production isn't only on him its also on his quarterback and the Jags are keeping Gabby on a short leash, a very short leash.

My link

Jaguars coordinator says game plan not a knock on QB Blaine Gabbert

Posted: September 23, 2012 - 9:56pm | Updated: September 23, 2012 - 11:30pm

By Vito Stellino

INDIANAPOLIS — Jaguars offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski was the first to admit Sunday that he called a conservative game against the Indianapolis Colts.

While Maurice Jones-Drew ran the ball 28 times, Blaine Gabbert threw only 21 times and had just 75 passing yards until Cecil Shorts took a slant pass and went 80 yards for the winning touchdown in the final minute as the Jaguars posted a 22-17 victory.

But Bratkowski said the emphasis on the run wasn’t a sign of a lack of confidence in Gabbert’s arm.

“We were a little concerned about the protection,’” Bratkowski said. “We were having protection issues. We didn’t want to have a sack-fumble, those types of things. We played it a little conservative. It was nothing more than we wanted to make sure we didn’t get a turnover. We wanted to play good field position football.”

He added, “In hindsight, I’m sure I’ll look back and think we probably should have thrown it here and there. But at the end of the day, we came away with a no-turnover game. That was a very solid thing for us. It allowed us to stay in the game.’’

Of the perception he wasn’t showing confidence in Gabbert, Bratkowski said, “That’s not it. He was knocked to the ground a number of times. We were trying to prevent him getting back there and him not seeing somebody and getting blindsided and having the ball on the ground, so we thought we would play it conservative. Is it going to be that way every week? No. We’re not playing [Colts’ defensive end] Robert Mathis every week. That could be the difference.’’

Jaguars coach Mike Mularkey seemed to show a lack of confidence in Gabbert when the team ran on third-and-9 from the Jaguars’ 21 with less than two minutes left, then punted.

Mularkey said the idea was to force the Colts to take a timeout.

“That was important,” Mularkey said. “We burned the timeout.” ...
Click to expand...
Only 21 pass attempts? Only 75 passing yards if he doesn't hit that bomb to Shorts?Consider for a comparison the four rookie QBs and the other second-year QBs who played yesterday and their pass attempts and yardage totals and remember these guys are all either rookies or fellow second-year quarterbacks like Gabbert just to give a snapshot sample of how many attempts and yards his contemporaries are getting.

Ryan Tannehill - 36 attempts for 196 yards 0 TDs

Christian Ponder - 35 attempts for 195 yards 2 TDs

Robert Griffin III - 34 attempts for 221 yards 1 TD

Cam Newton - 30 attempts for 242 yards 0 TDs

Brandon Weeden - 43 attempts for 237 yards 1 TD

Andy Dalton - 27 attempts for 328 yards 3 TDs

Jake Locker - 42 attempts for 378 yards 2 TDs

Andrew Luck - 46 attempts for 313 yards 2 TDs

The object of the game is to win and the Jags won but they did so against a rookie QB so one of those young QBs had to win the game but when you draft a quarterback high in the draft you do so with the intent of putting the ball in his hands not taking it out of his hands especially with the reasoning that you are afraid he might get hit. I've never heard that before with a young healthy QB who needs to develop.

The Jaguars gave Blaine Gabbert only 21 pass attempts a week after he only had 19 pass attempts.

Justin Blackmon doesn't have a chance to develop if the Jag coaches don't want to pass the ball because they don't trust Gabbert and aren't willing to put the ball in his hands so they can develop him.

Hopefully they get a QB next year who they trust or remove this coaching staff and put in some people who know you have to put the ball in a young QBs hands in order to develop him.

Oh and you do not move up in the draft and select a WR and then take the ball out of your QBs hands which prevents the development of your first round QB and your first round WR.

 
'Bracie Smathers said:
'Wadsworth said:
'rickyg said:
I think he is now droppable in redraft leagues. I have no doubt that things will come together for him at some pt this season and obviously he is a hold/bench stash for dynasty leaguers. It's a combo of him learning the offense and the speed at which the nfl operates at, and Blaine gabbert sucking.
Click to expand...
I think this is clearly the situation at this point. The Jags have been running a conservation game plan(21 passing attempts this week) and on top of that Gabbert has been spreading out the the few targets available. No players on the Jags has more than 16 targets and seven players have at least 6. Until the Jaguars decide to to open up the passing game and he finds some chemistry with the QB there simply will not be enough opportunity for Blackmon to be fantasy relevant.
Click to expand...
Not much to personally add other than to agree and share the reasoning from sources why I agree with you.JB's production isn't only on him its also on his quarterback and the Jags are keeping Gabby on a short leash, a very short leash.

My link

Jaguars coordinator says game plan not a knock on QB Blaine Gabbert

Posted: September 23, 2012 - 9:56pm | Updated: September 23, 2012 - 11:30pm

By Vito Stellino

INDIANAPOLIS — Jaguars offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski was the first to admit Sunday that he called a conservative game against the Indianapolis Colts.

While Maurice Jones-Drew ran the ball 28 times, Blaine Gabbert threw only 21 times and had just 75 passing yards until Cecil Shorts took a slant pass and went 80 yards for the winning touchdown in the final minute as the Jaguars posted a 22-17 victory.

But Bratkowski said the emphasis on the run wasn’t a sign of a lack of confidence in Gabbert’s arm.

“We were a little concerned about the protection,’” Bratkowski said. “We were having protection issues. We didn’t want to have a sack-fumble, those types of things. We played it a little conservative. It was nothing more than we wanted to make sure we didn’t get a turnover. We wanted to play good field position football.”

He added, “In hindsight, I’m sure I’ll look back and think we probably should have thrown it here and there. But at the end of the day, we came away with a no-turnover game. That was a very solid thing for us. It allowed us to stay in the game.’’

Of the perception he wasn’t showing confidence in Gabbert, Bratkowski said, “That’s not it. He was knocked to the ground a number of times. We were trying to prevent him getting back there and him not seeing somebody and getting blindsided and having the ball on the ground, so we thought we would play it conservative. Is it going to be that way every week? No. We’re not playing [Colts’ defensive end] Robert Mathis every week. That could be the difference.’’

Jaguars coach Mike Mularkey seemed to show a lack of confidence in Gabbert when the team ran on third-and-9 from the Jaguars’ 21 with less than two minutes left, then punted.

Mularkey said the idea was to force the Colts to take a timeout.

“That was important,” Mularkey said. “We burned the timeout.” ...
Click to expand...
Only 21 pass attempts? Only 75 passing yards if he doesn't hit that bomb to Shorts?Consider for a comparison the four rookie QBs and the other second-year QBs who played yesterday and their pass attempts and yardage totals and remember these guys are all either rookies or fellow second-year quarterbacks like Gabbert just to give a snapshot sample of how many attempts and yards his contemporaries are getting.

Ryan Tannehill - 36 attempts for 196 yards 0 TDs

Christian Ponder - 35 attempts for 195 yards 2 TDs

Robert Griffin III - 34 attempts for 221 yards 1 TD

Cam Newton - 30 attempts for 242 yards 0 TDs

Brandon Weeden - 43 attempts for 237 yards 1 TD

Andy Dalton - 27 attempts for 328 yards 3 TDs

Jake Locker - 42 attempts for 378 yards 2 TDs

Andrew Luck - 46 attempts for 313 yards 2 TDs

The object of the game is to win and the Jags won but they did so against a rookie QB so one of those young QBs had to win the game but when you draft a quarterback high in the draft you do so with the intent of putting the ball in his hands not taking it out of his hands especially with the reasoning that you are afraid he might get hit. I've never heard that before with a young healthy QB who needs to develop.

The Jaguars gave Blaine Gabbert only 21 pass attempts a week after he only had 19 pass attempts.

Justin Blackmon doesn't have a chance to develop if the Jag coaches don't want to pass the ball because they don't trust Gabbert and aren't willing to put the ball in his hands so they can develop him.

Hopefully they get a QB next year who they trust or remove this coaching staff and put in some people who know you have to put the ball in a young QBs hands in order to develop him.

Oh and you do not move up in the draft and select a WR and then take the ball out of your QBs hands which prevents the development of your first round QB and your first round WR.
Click to expand...
My guess is that the coaching staff had plans to open up the O with the addition of Blackmon and the improvement of Gabbert. Those plans go out the window if you do not have a QB. This is great for MJD owners though. MJD is going to have the ball in his hands all game, every game.

 
'Wadsworth said:
'rickyg said:
I think he is now droppable in redraft leagues. I have no doubt that things will come together for him at some pt this season and obviously he is a hold/bench stash for dynasty leaguers. It's a combo of him learning the offense and the speed at which the nfl operates at, and Blaine gabbert sucking.
Click to expand...
I think this is clearly the situation at this point. The Jags have been running a conservation game plan(21 passing attempts this week) and on top of that Gabbert has been spreading out the the few targets available. No players on the Jags has more than 16 targets and seven players have at least 6. Until the Jaguars decide to to open up the passing game and he finds some chemistry with the QB there simply will not be enough opportunity for Blackmon to be fantasy relevant.
Click to expand...
I think the other factor for the conservative gameplan is how banged up the offensive line is. If Bradfield, Britton, or even Baldridge can play next week, maybe they open it up a little. With AJ Green on the other sideline, they might be forced to.
 
I wanted to bump this thread to gather and discuss input on Blackmon's performance this past week. It was his most productive day as a pro (6 catches out of 10 targets for 48 yards) and was wondering how he looked, what people think of his prospects for the rest of season, do you think he is a hold/drop/sell, etc. In a couple larger redraft leagues I play in I have also seen him on the waiver wire, so that might be an important topic to discuss as well.

 
This past week was enough for him to feel more worthwhile than Lafell, Lamar Miller, and Quizz. Im still not optimistic, but Im in dire need of someone to plug in as my WR3 each week.

 
'tdhartis said:
I wanted to bump this thread to gather and discuss input on Blackmon's performance this past week. It was his most productive day as a pro (6 catches out of 10 targets for 48 yards) and was wondering how he looked, what people think of his prospects for the rest of season, do you think he is a hold/drop/sell, etc. In a couple larger redraft leagues I play in I have also seen him on the waiver wire, so that might be an important topic to discuss as well.
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I'd shop him around for something. (Mention Laurent Robinson being out and Blackmon will hog targets) It'll depend on your league whether to bench/drop.I don't see any upside at all with Gabbert back there. 6/48 (@ home vs. an atrocious Cincy secondary) probably is his upside this year.
 
'Craig_MiamiFL said:
'tdhartis said:
I wanted to bump this thread to gather and discuss input on Blackmon's performance this past week. It was his most productive day as a pro (6 catches out of 10 targets for 48 yards) and was wondering how he looked, what people think of his prospects for the rest of season, do you think he is a hold/drop/sell, etc. In a couple larger redraft leagues I play in I have also seen him on the waiver wire, so that might be an important topic to discuss as well.
Click to expand...
I'd shop him around for something. (Mention Laurent Robinson being out and Blackmon will hog targets) It'll depend on your league whether to bench/drop.I don't see any upside at all with Gabbert back there. 6/48 (@ home vs. an atrocious Cincy secondary) probably is his upside this year.
Click to expand...
Dynasty I would buy low for next season.
 
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