Mr. Brownstone
Footballguy
Shorts injured his groin today. I don't know how serious it is, but you never know with this type of issue. Something to keep an eye on.
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justin blackmon (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter lionsroar
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agent orange
Footballguy
In addition to Shorts, Cortland Finnegan still hasn't practiced this week. If he and Shorts are limited or out, this could shape up to be a nice debut for Blackmon.
dcgangstas
Footballguy
From Rotoworld, FWIW..
Cecil Shorts exited Wednesday's practice with a minor groin injury. Shorts battled a groin issue ahead of Week 2 but ended up playing and hasn't missed a beat since. He likely tweaked it again but doesn't seem to be in danger of missing Sunday's game against the Rams. We'll update Shorts on Thursday.
Cecil Shorts exited Wednesday's practice with a minor groin injury. Shorts battled a groin issue ahead of Week 2 but ended up playing and hasn't missed a beat since. He likely tweaked it again but doesn't seem to be in danger of missing Sunday's game against the Rams. We'll update Shorts on Thursday.
solorca
Footballguy
Despite keeping an eye on the Big 12, I don't remember all the things that made him a knucklehead, but I don't doubt that is true. Just from recent news it seems like he's just got a problem behaving himself when he gets wasted. We've all been there so it's hard for me to judge. I think alcohol related problems are better than failed drug tests and injuries, so this could be worse in my eyes.The bolded is the biggest concern - SSOG (now on staff as Adam) calls it "knucklhead factor" and IMHO, Blackmon has it in spades. The fact that he is already dancing the line of suspensions just after his rookie season (which, production-wise, was weaker than many expected) - is pretty scary. He is on a bad team, but much of his bad situation is his own doing.Hey, if you've got an opinion, I'll hear it out. Just don't state it as a fact or try to include facts that are completely erroneous.As a follow up to the Finley thought - ESPN.com (according to CBS) said Finley did practice Wednesday.
I'm not even gonna post what I think about Blackmon, as Ninja and I always seem to end up on opposite sides of an argument.
My opinion is that he's a stud in a bad situation. He's also one strike away from a season long suspension.
He reminds me of Michael Crabtree - before Crabtree lost the diva attitude. If you look at Crabtree's first 3 years in the league, his stats look eerily similar to Blackmon's rookie season. The problem I have is, I'm not willing to bet as much on Blackmon "growing out of it" the way Crabtree finally did in 2012. As such, I could easily see a career for Blackmon, in which most seasons vaguely resemble his 64-865-5 rookie season - with the only difference being the number of games played thanks to an occasional suspension here or there.
Is he talented? Absolutely. His ceiling is higher than Crabtree's in my opinion...talent wise. I just think that when all is said in done, there will be a lot more "what could have been" written about Blackmon.
As for Crabtree, not a bad comparison but I've always seen Crabtree as a really, really good possession receiver. Great hands, good routes, average speed. He was held back by a lack of targets, mediocre QB play, and play calling - he was often targeted on the "move the chains" plays, but it wasn't until Kaep took over that he started getting a s***-ton of targets (11 per game) and some deeper looks. So I don't think his diva attitude had much, if anything, to do with his performance.
You speak of Blackmon's rookie season being disappointing, but keep in mind that his QB play was atrocious and he really turned it on in the second half of the season. Here's a fun fact (which is absolutely cherry picking): Blackmon finished WR11 from weeks 9 - 17 last year. His stat line from those weeks was 86-46-672-5. Extrapolated to 16 games that would be 153 targets, 82 rec, 1195 yds, 9 TDs. That many targets would have put him as the 8th more targeted WR last year, so that probably isn't realistic, but it's certainly not impossible given how often the Jags will be losing.
He was actually 1 spot ahead of AJ Green during those weeks, despite seeing 5 less targets. Sounds impressive, but to put this in perspective, TY Hilton finished 1 spot ahead of Blackmon, although I would take that with a grain of salt since Hilton benefited from a much better QB, several long touchdowns (he had 6 TDs on just 32 rec), was the #3 WR on his team, and played on the team that led the NFL in deep passing attempts. I think Blackmon's performance was more replicable and dependent upon talent rather than situation.
Bottom line, I don't think his performance last year was disappointing. It was obviously propped up by high target numbers but I consider that a wash given where those targets were coming from. I'm not expecting WR1 numbers this year, but it's not impossible. Given enough targets a good WR can put up stats - see Boldin's rookie year. I think he's got a 10% of WR1 numbers similar to last year's finish, 50% chance of WR2 numbers, and 90% chance of WR3 numbers.
Apple Jack
Footballguy
He's playing, right? Yahoo is showing him out.
Yeah, I think that's a carry-over from when he was suspended. For some reason they haven't updated it. All indications are that he'll be starting.
just_want_2_win
Footballguy
BINGO! 67 yard TD catch!!!
Pietaster2
Footballguy
I guess he's back. Suck it Yahoo!
Bobbyn2022
Footballguy
Blackmon is a beast. He didnt go 5th overall for no reason.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
Espn game tracker says he's injured on a play. What's up? Can't watch the game.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Sat him this week in most leagues. Already getting flashbacks to sitting Gordon week 3 
Does anyone know if Gabbert's "hamstring injury" is real or if Henne is just going to take over for him starting in week 6?
Blackmon got nine targets in the game, three of them from Henne with about 20 minutes left in the game. Henne did target Shorts five times in that time span. Would prefer to see him lock onto Blackmon like last year, but maybe a more even distribution could help keep defenses honest. Hard to complain about 9-10 targets per game, but when you've got bad QBs, you need at least that many targets just to get 5 receptions.
Either way, I was impressed with his speed on that touchdown, so I guess those reports about his conditioning were true. He should be a solid play the rest of the year. I'm going to guess WR15-esque numbers, assuming about 5 rec per game with 1 TD per 2-3 games.
Blackmon got nine targets in the game, three of them from Henne with about 20 minutes left in the game. Henne did target Shorts five times in that time span. Would prefer to see him lock onto Blackmon like last year, but maybe a more even distribution could help keep defenses honest. Hard to complain about 9-10 targets per game, but when you've got bad QBs, you need at least that many targets just to get 5 receptions.
Either way, I was impressed with his speed on that touchdown, so I guess those reports about his conditioning were true. He should be a solid play the rest of the year. I'm going to guess WR15-esque numbers, assuming about 5 rec per game with 1 TD per 2-3 games.
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
:blackmondot:
solorca
Footballguy
Blackmon is a better talent and probably already a better player. Flacco's high attempt numbers have to come down at some point. I think the trade was a good one in redraft, robbery in dynasty.
Koya
Footballguy
While I'd rather have Blackmon in a dynasty, it's hardly a robbery. Smith is in a MUCH more stable situation. It's conceivable that Blackmon could be working with a crap QB for years in a bad situation. Not to mention he's one strike away from missing a whole lotta games.
Smith is the safe choice, and not a bad one. He's still young and developing as well. Blackmon has more talent, but has had issues off field and his franchise is a disaster.
Blackmon's situation is stable... his QB situation simply can not get worse. Smith is stuck with Flacco, who may have won a super bowl, but is a known quantity at this point and that quantity is not impressive. It would be good to see a few more games, but given how Blackmon finished last year and has started this year, it's hard not to get excited about him. Should JAX acquire a better QB, the sky is the limit. Can't really say that about Torrey Smith. I know they say every year that he's more than a deep threat, but so far he has not looked like a well rounded receiver.
The suspension is a legitimate concern, though. Hopefully he realized he can afford a cab (or a limo) the next time he goes on a bender.
Team ROFLCOPTERS
Footballguy
Smith is anything but stable. His situation may be stable, but few have been more up and down in the weekly stats department as Torrey Smith over the last 3 years. He's far from an "every week stud" as someone referred to him as in this thread.
solorca
Footballguy
The past few seasons have little to do with this year. That's one of the biggest mistakes you can make as a fantasy owner. Boldin is gone and Pitta is on IR. Torrey is THE receiving threat and being treated like a legit #1. HEre are his stats so far this season...
Week 1 - 4 catches, 92 yards (8 targets)
Week 2 - 7 catches, 85 yards (13 targets)
Week 3 - 5 catches, 92 yards (9 targets)
Week 4 - 5 catches, 166 yards, 1 touchdown (12 targets)
Week 5 - 6 catches, 121 yards (9 targets)
Over a 16 game season, that would equal 86 catches, 1779 yards, and 3.3 touchdowns. That would be good for WR8 last season in a PPR league. I'm not sure what you're expecting, but that's stud production and targets. Touchdowns are always fluky, but even with only one so far, he's putting up top quality production every week. Even more impressive is how consistent he's been. Ther haven't been any games that stand out as an average breaker...he's just producing, week in and week out.
In dyansty, I like Blackmon a little more, but in redraft Torrey is easily the safer and most likely more productive option. I have Blackmon in a ton of leagues and Torrey in none, but I'd trade for him in a heartbeat.
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Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
Yeah Torrey has been very consistent this year. He's 2nd in wr receiving yards in the NFL only behind Julio
Eviloutsider
Footballguy
Just traded Gordon because of my faith in Blackmon. I expect 850 yards and 8 scores the rest of the way which is admittdly optimistic.
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Team ROFLCOPTERS
Footballguy
I'm familiar with what he's doing this year. I've got him on several teams. He's still only catching 55% of his targets. That means that you are absolutely relying on a big play every week and 3 out of 5 games you are kicking yourself for starting him until the final minutes this year. Baltimore has not needed to salt the game away. What happens when they don't need to gun it late and will run the ball in the 4th like the previous years? Unless you believe that what we have seen is exactly what we are getting out of Baltimore I'm not ready to say we know that Smith is all of a sudden dependable after 5 games.
solorca
Footballguy
Torrey only has one game this season where he has put up big stats in the 4th quarter, so I'm not sure where you are pulling this from...
Week 1 - 1 catch, 34 yards
Week 2 - 0 catches, 0 yards
Week 3 - 1 catch, 8 yards
Week 4 - 2 catches, 95 yards
Week 5 - 2 catches, 30 yards
So in the 4th quarter, he's caught 6 catches (22% of his total receptions) for 167 yards (30% of his total yards). That isn't exactly Cecil Shorts garbage time stats.
Not true. Not true at all. Past seasons are not the holy grail, but they are not meaningless, either. Smith's consistency has been a direct result of an inordinate amount of Flacco passes this year. His YPR is not sustainable, either. Given how consistent he's appeared, I consider Torrey a sell high rather than a guy I'd sit on and expect his pace to continue. I think the targets and YPR will drop. Flacco is on pace for 643 passing attempts. That's not going to happen. Smith is on pace for 163 targets. That's not going to happen, either.
I think Blackmon is more likely to see 10 targets a game with Henne than Smith with Flacco. Baltimore has a good running game that has yet to find its traction this year. Jacksonville will be losing for 90% of each game for the rest of the season. Plus, Blackmon in year 2 is probably a better NFL WR than Smith in year 3.
solorca
Footballguy
I didn't say that past seasons were meaningless, I said that using past seasons as an indicator for this season, especially with very important pieces that have changed, is a bad way to determine value.
So far, we have five games with Torrey Smith as the WR1 in Baltimore and the production is what it is. I certainly expect a drop as well, but I don't think it's going to be so dramatic that he suddenly goes from averaging 10 targets to averaging 6. He's their best receiver by a significant margin, he's going to get his targets, and in turn, catches. It's also worth noting that his touchdown rate will likely go up as well. His performance so far is almost all volume based...the touchdowns will come.
I agree that Blackmon is a better NFL receiver than Smith, but I play fantasy football. Blackmon also has to play with a terrible quarterback (regardless of who is starting) and a team that has struggled to move the ball at all. Blackmon will help that of course, but he's definitely not in an ideal situation.
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tdhartis
Footballguy
Seems to me that this could play out in a very similar way to Garcon in Washington this year. Obviously the top talent at WR for the team playing with a terrible defense that will cause them to be behind early and often. So far Garcon, who was drafted as a WR2/3, is putting up WR1 numbers in that situation. Obviously there is a dropoff in QB play, but the situations are rather similar. Does anyone think he could post borderline WR1 numbers for the rest of the season, or does the offense limit him to almost certain WR2 status?
oukurt
Footballguy
With WRs going down with injuries the elite WRs are who? CJ and who? Dez I guess? Blackmon has all pro talent. We will see if the QB situation makes him a monster scorer one week and then a 3-30-0 guy the next. I am starting him with confidence though. I know he destroyed secondaries at the college level. I think he will do the same in the NFL with average QB play.ZigZagMan said:
tdhartis
Footballguy
I would say A.J. Green, Brandon Marshall, Demaryius Thomas, and Larry Fitzgerald also have all-pro talent. A.J. and Fitz have been held back by their offense and QB play this year. Thomas and Marshall have been slightly streaky, but less so due to their QB play.
oukurt
Footballguy
This year has been odd. Other than J Charles, J Graham, and P Manning is there any player you just know produce each week?
oukurt
Footballguy
Yeah AD and McCoy are pretty safe bets each week as well. Just seems like we usually have had more players putting up consistent big numbers each week in years past. Especially at QB.
tdhartis
Footballguy
In my PPR league, the following WRs have put up double digit points in every game they have played this season (in add. to D.Thomas): W. Welker, T. Smith, B. Marshall, A. Brown, A.J. Green, R. Cobb, J. Nelson, P. Garcon, and J. Gordon.
It's a short list no doubt, but if that's the standard for consistency then there seems to be a respectable number of players doing it.
It's a counter argument to that one above that claims elite talents around the league, like Blackmon, have been streaky FF-wise this year regardless of QB situation, and therefore Blackmon shouldn't necessarily be seen as a threat to be more streaky than any of the other top-talent WRs in the league due to the insecurity surrounding his QB situation.
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EBF was responding to an earlier post. The last 5 to 10 posts were off the original topic of Blackmon. People started talking about WRs you can count on every week and worry little about bad weeks from.
squistion
Footballguy
Nice if he could have taken the two seconds to quote it, so we would all know what he was responding to.
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