K Rod just held back on his fastball in 2008 (1 Viewer)

[MAC_32]

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2008/11/16/6...ents-are-honest

Agents are Honest

K-Rod's agent, Paul Kinzer, insists that such talk is misinformed. He says that Rodriguez is more comfortable throwing his fastball at lower velocities because it gives him better command.

"I saw him hit 96 (mph) twice and 97 once late in the season when he needed a big out against Raul Ibanez with the Mariners," Kinzer said Saturday. "The velocity is there when he needs to reach back for it. He told me he's just more comfortable around 92-93.

Francisco Rodriguez fastballs, 2008: 638

Francisco Rodriguez fastballs >96.0 mph, 2008: 2

Francisco Rodriguez, pitches to Raul Ibanez in September:

94

94

87

88

82

87

89

88

94

79

81

85

86

95

Francisco Rodriguez average fastball, 2007: 95.5

Francisco Rodriguez average fastball, 2008: 92.9

In 2007, 92% of Rodriguez's fastballs clocked in at 94+ mph, and 65% of them were strikes. In 2008, 13% of Rodriguez's fastballs clocked in at 94+ mph, and 44% of them were strikes.

Kinzer is right on one thing: Rodriguez did have better fastball command at lower velocity. While fewer than half of his 94+ fastballs were strikes, the rate jumped up to 64% on fastballs under the threshold. Here's the problem, though - just a season ago, Rodriguez was throwing considerably harder, and when he was throwing considerably harder, he was still finding the zone. Something has changed. So we're left with one of two conclusions:

1) Rodriguez, who has been in the Major Leagues since 2002, only recently discovered that he's more comfortable around 92-93, and he had to "reach back for it" on but two occasions last year

2) Rodriguez is no longer capable of throwing as consistently hard as he used to

If we choose to side with the former, then we may infer that Rodriguez is like the slowest learner of all time. We may also infer that he was reaching the #### out of himself in seasons past, which, whatever, that's weird. Paul Kinzer would have you believe that Francisco Rodriguez - an elite-level closer already with a pair of ASG appearances and Cy Young nominations - deliberately decided to change the way he pitches somewhere between 2007 and 2008. Because things obviously weren't working for him before.

If we choose to side with the latter, then hey congratulations we're not ######ed.

Francisco Rodriguez is a good closer. Of that there's no question. But there are already a lot of miles on his arm, and he's coming off the worst season of his career in which his fastball dropped a few ticks. That's bad. Those are two major red flags, and you better believe the league is aware. I would not want to be a fan of the team that ends up footing his contract, because while free agency is almost always about paying for what a guy's already done (as opposed to what you expect him to do), this one takes that to another level.

Good luck to you, future Rodriguez employer. You will have signed the guy with arguably the highest collapse potential on the market. I hope the one extra win or so in the short-term makes a big enough difference.

This is supposed to happen to pitchers in their early 30's, not 26 year olds. Whoever pays for K Rod's former production and expects him to keep it up, good luck.

 

[jfranco77]

In all honesty, I think maybe he realized he was going to destroy his arm throwing 96 with that delivery, so he toned it down a little bit. Maybe he did that because he didn't want to get hurt before he got paid. Maybe he did just get smarter. Maybe he realized he could be more effective throwing slower. He was at least smart enough (or hurt enough) to drop his slider velocity to compensate.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...&position=P

The only thing that has changed noticeably is his O-Contact%... is that really bad?

 

[MAC_32]

The only thing that has changed noticeably is his O-Contact%... is that really bad?

Declining K/9, increasing BB/9, increasing WHIP, increasing LD%...there are a lot of red flags on top of his stuff just not being as nasty as it used to be.

 

[guru_007]

The only thing that has changed noticeably is his O-Contact%... is that really bad?

Declining K/9, increasing BB/9, increasing WHIP, increasing LD%...there are a lot of red flags on top of his stuff just not being as nasty as it used to be.

Not saying there aren't a few puffs of smoke here, but come on with this, and the original article stating last year was K-Rod's worst year of his career.Declining K/9.....He had 13 less strikeouts last year in 1 more inning pitched than the year previous. This is not exactly falling off the table here. And his K/9 ratio is still better than it was in his first year in the league.His BB/9 increasing...again he had the exact same amount of walks as the year previous in 1 more inning pitched. He is well within his historic averages here, and he may have gotten squeezed by a call here or there, it's not like he went from 10 walks to 50 in one season. He had 62 saves last year and was 3rd in Cy Young voting. he had a monster season. The Angels bullpen is no longer the dominant pen it was back in the day when guys like Donnely and Shields pitched the 7th and 8th and were fantastic and KRod mopped up the 9th. Shields is a guy I look at that's been worked and has a lot of innings on him. KRod's what 26, 27 years old? He'll be fine

 

[MAC_32]

The only thing that has changed noticeably is his O-Contact%... is that really bad?

Declining K/9, increasing BB/9, increasing WHIP, increasing LD%...there are a lot of red flags on top of his stuff just not being as nasty as it used to be.

Not saying there aren't a few puffs of smoke here, but come on with this, and the original article stating last year was K-Rod's worst year of his career.Declining K/9.....He had 13 less strikeouts last year in 1 more inning pitched than the year previous. This is not exactly falling off the table here. And his K/9 ratio is still better than it was in his first year in the league.His BB/9 increasing...again he had the exact same amount of walks as the year previous in 1 more inning pitched. He is well within his historic averages here, and he may have gotten squeezed by a call here or there, it's not like he went from 10 walks to 50 in one season. He had 62 saves last year and was 3rd in Cy Young voting. he had a monster season. The Angels bullpen is no longer the dominant pen it was back in the day when guys like Donnely and Shields pitched the 7th and 8th and were fantastic and KRod mopped up the 9th. Shields is a guy I look at that's been worked and has a lot of innings on him. KRod's what 26, 27 years old? He'll be fine

I agree that the changes weren't drastic but there was an awful lot of them, coupled with his stuff not being as nasty as it once was. It's just a lot of red flags, I think there are better risks to take on players that will cost significantly less.I'm not going to get into the irrelevant record breaking save discussion, something in which he has little control over.

 

[guru_007]

I agree that the changes weren't drastic but there was an awful lot of them, coupled with his stuff not being as nasty as it once was. It's just a lot of red flags, I think there are better risks to take on players that will cost significantly less.

I'm not going to get into the irrelevant record breaking save discussion, something in which he has little control over.

I'm listeningLet's hear some players you think are less risky - yet will produce at an all-star level caliber.

That's why they call it "the market". I think when you start digging around out there, you are not going to find any less risky players that are bargains. You will find some highly risky players that are bargains - some pan out, some don't. Factor in the fact K-Rod is still in his mid '20's, and well, that's a pretty safe bet.

I'll agree that if I were a GM/owner, I wouldn't necessarily want to throw around big bucks at a closer, but if you're a team with money to spare, and you are maybe one piece away from the world series, you have to look long and hard at KRod. He's on the short list of guys I want closing the game with my job on the line.

 

[MAC_32]

I agree that the changes weren't drastic but there was an awful lot of them, coupled with his stuff not being as nasty as it once was. It's just a lot of red flags, I think there are better risks to take on players that will cost significantly less.

I'm not going to get into the irrelevant record breaking save discussion, something in which he has little control over.

I'm listeningLet's hear some players you think are less risky - yet will produce at an all-star level caliber.

That's why they call it "the market". I think when you start digging around out there, you are not going to find any less risky players that are bargains. You will find some highly risky players that are bargains - some pan out, some don't. Factor in the fact K-Rod is still in his mid '20's, and well, that's a pretty safe bet.

I'll agree that if I were a GM/owner, I wouldn't necessarily want to throw around big bucks at a closer, but if you're a team with money to spare, and you are maybe one piece away from the world series, you have to look long and hard at KRod. He's on the short list of guys I want closing the game with my job on the line.

I don't think comparing a player that will command 1/10th of K Rod's salary to K Rod is a fair comparison. The only fair way to make the comparison would be to take the $ spent on K Rod and see where it's spent instead of him, then start making comparisons.All I'm saying is I think there's better places to spend that sort of money...unless we knew he was the next Mariano Rivera (might be, but I'd be betting against it), even for a team like Toronto that doesn't have a hole at closer I think trading BJ Ryan away for an upgrade at another position and looking elsewhere for a (cheaper) closer is the way to go.

Then again, I think closer is the most over rated and over paid position in all of baseball so if you don't believe the same we're not going to see eye to eye on this at all. Regardless of if you think K Rod's red flags are legit or not.

 

[Michael Brown]

The only thing that has changed noticeably is his O-Contact%... is that really bad?

Declining K/9, increasing BB/9, increasing WHIP, increasing LD%...there are a lot of red flags on top of his stuff just not being as nasty as it used to be.

Not saying there aren't a few puffs of smoke here, but come on with this, and the original article stating last year was K-Rod's worst year of his career.Declining K/9.....

He had 13 less strikeouts last year in 1 more inning pitched than the year previous. This is not exactly falling off the table here. And his K/9 ratio is still better than it was in his first year in the league.

His BB/9 increasing...

again he had the exact same amount of walks as the year previous in 1 more inning pitched. He is well within his historic averages here, and he may have gotten squeezed by a call here or there, it's not like he went from 10 walks to 50 in one season.

He had 62 saves last year and was 3rd in Cy Young voting. he had a monster season. The Angels bullpen is no longer the dominant pen it was back in the day when guys like Donnely and Shields pitched the 7th and 8th and were fantastic and KRod mopped up the 9th. Shields is a guy I look at that's been worked and has a lot of innings on him.

KRod's what 26, 27 years old? He'll be fine

One comment about the bolded...13 strikeouts is a large difference when you're talking about a closer. Closers pitch roughly 1/3 the IP of a starter. If a starter's strikeouts dipped by 40 from one season to the next, it would be cause for alarm. That's the ratio at which KRod declined.