i think he will bat between Votto and Bruce. Given his periphs and babip I think he was unlucky with average. I don't see the speed coming back, but no reason he can't repeat last year if he bats fourth.
Mauer is in a lousy offense, if he plays 140 games (can't ignore concussion risk) his counting stats may total 160, he doesn't run anymore, and he's looking at 10 homers. He won't help anywhere outside of average. If he plays all year.
I am very risk adverse when building the foundation of my team. The downside for Phillips is a lot better than the downside to Mauer and his upside is much higher. I get more creative, roll more dice, and am generally impatient as I get to the second half of my roster. Total opposite with the front half.
Except Dusty is gone and the new manager has already said his preferred batting order would be Votto 3rd and Bruce 4th. And his peripherals show more fly balls, less line drives, and more swings and misses. Plus his ISO has been trending down for several years. Phillips is a prime candidate to fall off a cliff. Meanwhile, the cliff at C is a lot lower, so Mauer has to fall a lot more to reach it.
i think the cliff is unlikely. There are some negative trends, but not across the board. Didn't know about the new managers comments though, thank you.Gotta pick apart some of your analysis though. More fly balls is misleading. More than '12? Yes. Career? No. On par. Same with swinging strike. Ld went down, but was still above career. Hr/fb is normal, gb was actually low, and bb went up - career normal though. Yeah, his ISO is trending down, but he is still at 135 and hit 18 out for the fourth straight year. Doesn't have the profile of a guy about to go over the edge.
Even if he doesn't hit in between Votto and Bruce he is going to hit on either side of them. Counting stats will still be there, maybe a few less and less balanced, but still there. I'm having trouble picturing this lineup without him sandwiched though. New guy may want Votto-Bruce 3-4, but wants don't always come to fruition.