Keeper Value (1 Viewer)

[Bl Deep]

While i have a specific scenario, the discussion should be helpful to those in leagues with keepers where you forfeit the round he was previously drafted in.

This is pure value determination.

10 Team League - 1 keeper

Starting Requirements

2QB 2RB 3WR Te/K/D

Options:

Randy Moss - Round 5

Marion Barber - Round 7

Wes Welker - Round 14

VBD Analysis:

Now, running VBD, Randy Moss as a keeper has the highest value when discounting the value of the forfeited pick, but by a scant amount... And that valuation seems like it has some inherant risk as it presumes Moss is far and away the highest scoring WR. Regressing his projections slightly and it is basically a coinflip with the other 2.

Now MB3 is being picked at basically the same point as Moss (ADP @1.08 vs moss @1.07)... I can get MB3 2 rounds later for a 7th, which i think is important because your top 7 rounds basically fill out your prime starters. So it would be comparing Moss + 7th rounder vs MB3 + 5th rounder, which leans me towards MB3.

Opportunity Cost Analysis:

There are a handful of RB's that are projected to do what MB3 does, which means he is more replaceable than Randy Moss, who is basically the LT2 of the position and unrivaled. having an irreplacable player is more valuable than someone with several clones IMO. While they both have bust potential, Moss may be higher because of expectation, MB3 has bust potential w/Felix on hand, and his projections are extrapolations of loads that he may not be able to handle.

Welker was a top 10 wideout last year basically could be had for free. He is the no-risk option IMO but with limited upside.

Do you keep Moss (higher risk/reward profile)

Do you keep MB3 (middle of the road risk/reward)

Do you keep Welker (lowest risk/reward profile)

While there is no 'bad choice' IMO, there will certainly be an optimal choice, and I am not sure which one it is.

thanks for all input.

 

[Bl Deep]

three little birds, out by my doorstep

singin' sweet songs

a melody pure and smooth...sayin' this is my message to you you you you.......

Say you don't worry.......about a thing

cause every little things gonna be alright

 

[Bl Deep]

50+ replies to mundane Favre stuff, but not an intellectual response to this.... I thought FBG had thinkers on this Forearm.

 

[Pictus Cat]

I think you'll find your answer at the top of this page.

IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT THE SHARK POOLThreads that are asking for advice on how you should draft or manage your team belong in The Assistant Coach forum.

 

[Bl Deep]

I think you'll find your answer at the top of this page.

IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT THE SHARK POOLThreads that are asking for advice on how you should draft or manage your team belong in The Assistant Coach forum.

This is about general VBD valuation and strategy which is prevalant in a ton of leagues, There are 50+threads on Who to draft on the main bored.....Another messageboard with ticky tack rules....awesome.

 

[Yitbos69]

I think you'll find your answer at the top of this page.

IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT THE SHARK POOLThreads that are asking for advice on how you should draft or manage your team belong in The Assistant Coach forum.

This is about general VBD valuation and strategy which is prevalant in a ton of leagues, There are 50+threads on Who to draft on the main bored.....Another messageboard with ticky tack rules....very gay.

Bye

 

[Bl Deep]

repasted to the assistant coach...

apologies to all offended that i am taking away valuable front page space for a Brett Favre thread or a "what are you psyched about this YEAR!!!!" Thread...

many apologies/

 

[Lehigh98]

very gay

You think so... Balls Deep?

 

[Moe Green]

repasted to the assistant coach... apologies to all offended that i am taking away valuable front page space for a Brett Favre thread or a "what are you psyched about this YEAR!!!!" Thread...many apologies/

Somehow I doubt the sincerity of your post.

 

[Bl Deep]

very gay

You think so... Balls Deep?

Just wanted some thinkers.....instead i get the grammar police and no insight. its a valuation question far deeper than "what do i do"..... im sure im more analytical than most, but was hoping someone might have a different angle of persepctive worth looking into......

Responses in asst coach are "no brainer" etc... which shows they don't understand how to analyze it..

 

[Jedimaster21]

As for the question, keep Moss and don't think twice. As for the tone of many of your posts, it is questionable. You have been on this message board for a total of 5 days and you are already getting angry because no one responded to your question? Maybe no one responds because it is in the wrong forum, and it is a simple question. You will get better results being thankful and appreciative.

 

[Bl Deep]

repasted to the assistant coach... apologies to all offended that i am taking away valuable front page space for a Brett Favre thread or a "what are you psyched about this YEAR!!!!" Thread...many apologies/

Somehow I doubt the sincerity of your post.

The discussion is valuable to those in keeper leagues, those who trade picks in their leagues...it gets to the heart of pick value in general, opportunity cost... but i suppose debating Westy vs Sjax, or reposting the sports headlines of MSN.com are more lofty discussions. I was simply honest in showing a real scenario for consideration, rather than discussing pure theory....

 

[Bl Deep]

As for the question, keep Moss and don't think twice. As for the tone of many of your posts, it is questionable. You have been on this message board for a total of 5 days and you are already getting angry because no one responded to your question? Maybe no one responds because it is in the wrong forum, and it is a simple question. You will get better results being thankful and appreciative.

Thanks... i do appreciate thoughtful responses. I just don't understand how ADP 1.07 + giving up a 5th roundervsADP 1.08 + giving up a 7th rounder is a no brainer...

 

[Jedimaster21]

As for the question, keep Moss and don't think twice. As for the tone of many of your posts, it is questionable. You have been on this message board for a total of 5 days and you are already getting angry because no one responded to your question? Maybe no one responds because it is in the wrong forum, and it is a simple question. You will get better results being thankful and appreciative.

Thanks... i do appreciate thoughtful responses. I just don't understand how ADP 1.07 + giving up a 5th roundervsADP 1.08 + giving up a 7th rounder is a no brainer...

You said it yourself in the original post. Marion Barber is replaceable, and just because his ADP is that high doesn't mean he is worth that much. His role is very much in question at this point, and Felix Jones will catch a lot of balls. The Cowboys also look for TO/Witten quite a bit in the red zone, and Romo will get some rushing TDs. He is a very good player, but I would rather draft Felix much later, especially if your format includes PPR.As for Moss, you can almost guarantee that he will be getting 1300 yards and 15 scores, and he will most likely be the top WR again. He can win you games and a championship by himself. Factor in that you have four picks before you lose the pick that it costs to keep him, and it is an easy choice IMO.

 

[Bl Deep]

You said it yourself in the original post. Marion Barber is replaceable, and just because his ADP is that high doesn't mean he is worth that much. His role is very much in question at this point, and Felix Jones will catch a lot of balls. The Cowboys also look for TO/Witten quite a bit in the red zone, and Romo will get some rushing TDs. He is a very good player, but I would rather draft Felix much later, especially if your format includes PPR.As for Moss, you can almost guarantee that he will be getting 1300 yards and 15 scores, and he will most likely be the top WR again. He can win you games and a championship by himself. Factor in that you have four picks before you lose the pick that it costs to keep him, and it is an easy choice IMO.

So you think MB3 is overvalued to ADP where Moss is correct? Interesting b/c i think Moss's projection variability was considered wider than MB3. So you see a value tier at pick 7 dropping off then...LT, AP, WEsty, SJax, Addai, Brady, Moss.......drop..... thats an interesting perspective.

 

[GregR_2]

As for general determination of how to determine keeper value, I think the answer is the same regardless of the players, picks, or keeper system. And it's pretty simple and straight forward.

Figure out what your team is likely to look like with each option or set of options. Don't make it the most optimistic outcome for each case, make it reasonable. Then choose the keepers that results in the strongest team.

That's it. It may be a little more complicated than just saying that, like you should probably do up some mocks and see what decisions are facing you in each circumstance so you fully understand the risk of different choices, etc. But that's really the question that you're trying to answer, and how to address it directly.

 

[j3r3m3y]

very gay

You think so... Balls Deep?

Just wanted some thinkers.....instead i get the grammar police and no insight. its a valuation question far deeper than "what do i do"..... im sure im more analytical than most, but was hoping someone might have a different angle of persepctive worth looking into......

Responses in asst coach are "no brainer" etc... which shows they don't understand how to analyze it..

Maybe you should hang around for more than a month before you decide how each forum should be used. The community here isn't always pretty but we know what we like and what we don't and AC posts in the pool is on the "don't" list.Go with the flow and you can have a great time here.

 

[Bl Deep]

As for general determination of how to determine keeper value, I think the answer is the same regardless of the players, picks, or keeper system. And it's pretty simple and straight forward.Figure out what your team is likely to look like with each option or set of options. Don't make it the most optimistic outcome for each case, make it reasonable. Then choose the keepers that results in the strongest team.That's it. It may be a little more complicated than just saying that, like you should probably do up some mocks and see what decisions are facing you in each circumstance so you fully understand the risk of different choices, etc. But that's really the question that you're trying to answer, and how to address it directly.

Agreed....it may just come down to a coinflip given how close it is.thanks

 

[Bl Deep]

very gay

You think so... Balls Deep?

Just wanted some thinkers.....instead i get the grammar police and no insight. its a valuation question far deeper than "what do i do"..... im sure im more analytical than most, but was hoping someone might have a different angle of persepctive worth looking into......

Responses in asst coach are "no brainer" etc... which shows they don't understand how to analyze it..

Maybe you should hang around for more than a month before you decide how each forum should be used. The community here isn't always pretty but we know what we like and what we don't and AC posts in the pool is on the "don't" list.Go with the flow and you can have a great time here.

thanks