Keith Bulluck and Raw Tackle Opportunity (1 Viewer)

[Jene Bramel]

With apologies for those looking for a conclusion, this is going to have to be a two part post. I'll get back to it sometime before MNF tonight.

First, TOP isn't often a huge deal for me. Sometimes it correlates with raw opportunity, other times it does not. But it got me thinking about more specific ways than I've used in the past to consider opportunity.

Here are the raw opportunity stats

Offensive snaps per game: 57 (27th)

Rush attempts faced per game: 18.4 (32nd)

Pass attempts faced per game: 37.4 (4th)

Pass completions allowed per game: 22.4 (7th)

A couple of quick notes. TThe 57 offensive snaps faced per game compares favorably to the league historical averages (60-61 per team per game), although not the Titans recent averages. The rush attempts faced is ridiculously low. It's five full attempts per game less than the league 27th ranked team this year and nearly ten less than the 16th ranked team. It's also 13 less attempts faced than the 2006 Titans. Also, acknowledging that Bulluck is an above average cover backer, the pass attempts faced and completions allowed would seem to provide Bulluck with some opportunity to make up for the rush attempts deficiencies and hurt the TOP argument.

Using the NFL.com stat databases, I ran some numbers to determine each team's raw tackle opportunity stats. Five games, as RommelDAK showed us last week, has proven to be a reasonable (though still not clearly applicable to one player) sample size for forward thinking.

I'll post the entire chart in this week's subscriber article, but I'm defining raw tackle opportunity as rush attempts against plus pass completions against plus sacks. Not every rush attempt or completion results in a solo tackle, but it's a reasonable metric to consider.

The Titans rank 30th in raw tackle opportunity through Week 6, with 42.40 tackle opps per game. For frame of reference, the Detroit Lions have generated the most tackle opps (57.80/gm), the Pittsburgh Steelers the least (39.80). The mean tackle opp per team is 49.74, which also neatly separates the league perfectly in half (16th team 50.00/gm, 17th team 49.50/gm).

None of that answers the question about whether the trend will continue for Tennessee of course, though it yet again provides empirical evidence for those of us that have been arguing on the strength of observation that Bulluck's level of play hasn't declined much, if at all.

I'm going to try to address whether the trend should continue for Bulluck later today after considering schedules, Bulluck's skill set metrics and my crystal ball.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Great stuff Jene.

 

[J Giles Band]

 

[The Gator]

 

[Jene Bramel]

So, the pertinent question: Is the Titan trend sustainable?

I don’t think anyone would argue that the bulk of linebacker IDP value derives from tackle opportunity on rushing plays.

Through the first five games, the Titans have faced three of the top 12 teams in rush attempts. However, only one of the five opponents could be considered to have a back that was reliably expected to get the bulk of the carries – Indianapolis.

Look what the Titans have done to their opponents’ rush attacks:

Team Avg Rush Att/Gm Rushes Vs TEN DifferenceJacksonville 25.2 17 - 8.2Indianapolis 25.0 22 - 3.0New Orleans 28.8 16 -12.8Atlanta 30.2 22 - 8.2Tampa Bay 31.7 15 -16.7There are many layers of variability to this, but it’s clear Tennessee’s rush defense has been well above average this season. And it’s been a collaborative effort. Albert Haynesworth has been a nearly unstoppable force. He’s on pace for 48 solos this year, which would obliterate his prior career high of 36. The MLB and FS are both improved over 2006. And both corners are better and more willing tacklers. As much as the opportunity has fallen off for Bulluck, the increased competition for tackles is just as important. Bulluck topped 100 solos in 2004 and 2005, both seasons in which the Titans ranked in the middle of the pack in tackle opportunity, with around 47 opps/game in each season.The Titans schedule isn’t horrible over the remainder of the season – they’ll face DEN, CIN, SD, KC and potentially decent rush attacks in HOU (twice) and JAX as well as the NYJ who are currently 6th in rush attempts per game. But the above trend of solid run defense numbers is pretty likely to continue if the major principals stay healthy. I still believe it will be difficult for the Titans to continue at the above pace, however. The next four weeks don’t look promising – HOU, OAK, CAR, JAC – but the post bye week stretch run could potentially be very nice, with DEN, CIN, HOU, SD, KC and the NYJ through Week 16.

If there are other options in shallow leagues, it’s time to move on while watching the above trends (rush attempts, injuries, etc) for signs of life. Everybody else should probably hold on and hope Bulluck breaks out right when you need him most.

FWIW, the stupid Magic 8-ball said to Ask Again Later. Sorry .

 

[Cardsfan11]

WOW!!!! You are amazing Jene. That is the type of info that can only be found here. Thank you very much!

 

[IAMCANADIAN]

Yup quality stuff... luckily I have the luxioury of a deep IDP bench, and he might see my bench for a couple weeks (depending on Haynesworth's status).

 

[coolnerd]

 

[Jene Bramel]

One final note. While researching the rest of the column tonight, it became clear just how important it is to not lose focus of the bigger picture. Understanding how to read boxscores and generate metrics is nice, as is having a grasp of defensive roles and responsibilities within a given scheme. But one is easily misunderstood without the other.

Consider our friend.

Tennessee Titan Tackle Opportunity 2003: 42.13

That stat is only marginally better than the 2007 result to date of 40.80. Yet, Bulluck managed an okay 106 solo tackles that season. You might think that renders the above statistical masturbations meaningless. I'd argue it makes them more meaningful.

To further the argument in my second post in this thread, it's every bit as much Bulluck's supporting cast that's killing him in 2007 as his relative lack of opportunity. Although it's clearly not rocket science, I'd hypothesize the percentage of Bulluck's tackles compared to his teammates is smaller this season than in 2003 and 2004-06 despite the fact that those two time periods generated totally different Tackle Opportunity results. And that makes the Tackle Opportunity value even more critical for Bulluck v2007. There was relatively little competition for Bulluck v2003-06. The below average Tackle Opportunity wasn't a deal breaker. This season, no matter how well he plays between the sidelnes, Bulluck MUST have at least average Tackle Opportunity to have IDP success.

And I still think Bulluck's schedule could provide that bump in opportunity down the stretch. Keep a very close eye on this character down the stretch.

 

[trader jake]

Quality Jene!

The same phenomenon is hitting London Baker-Fletcher a bit this year as well. However, his new team is an obvious change compared to the changing cast of characters in Tennessee for Bullock.

 

[AC05]

 

[Jene Bramel]

To close the loop, this week's Reading the Defense column has a table detailing each team's Tackle Opportunity value, extends the discussion on Bulluck and analyzes the merits of a few players based on the data set.

 

[Gannz]

The Doctor makes his analysis on the 15th and it's 'summarized' on CBS the 16th...

With Tennessee putting a much better run defense out on the field, Keith Bulluck's tackle opportunities have taken a hit. He has 24 tackles through five games this year; He had 25 tackles in the first two games of 2006. As the Titans get better, his IDP owners get angrier. The defensive line is stopping running backs that normally would have broken through to Bulluck's second line of defense.

http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/fantasy/story/10412214

 

[Bob Magaw]

egggggggggggggggggggggggg-cellent, smithers...

 

[JOBOOZOSO]

It's official, i am concerned. I kept telling myself he'll turn it around. He will now find himself on the bench.

Witherspoon

Fletcher-Baker

Crowell (displacing Bulluck)

Aaaarrrrgh

 

[Warpig]

Yet another pathetic showing from Bulluck. Man...I'm gonna have to bench him in favor of DiGiorgio or Gaither.

 

[msommer]

An interesting question might be while Bulluck is doing so much worse why is Thornton doing the same or slightly better?

Can we infer anything about the scheme (or a change in it) from that?

 

[JOBOOZOSO]

I haven't seen alot of TEN games over the past years, but based on last night, Bulluck looked slow. It was as if he was expecting the play-action EVERY down. He was not attacking the ball carrier, and when he finally got over the the man, he missed tackles.

argh

 

[-OZ-]

Looks good today.

 

[trader jake]

Looks good today.

Too bad his owners have no idea which games he will do this. It seems to be all or nothing with Bulluck this year.