Tackle Stat Crews (1 Viewer)

[ChicagoArch]

In case anyone is interested, I put together a spreadsheet comparing stat crews around the league. I put in the first six home games for each team, excluding London and Mexico City games. I looked at total tackles, solos, assists and opponents’ offensive snaps. These numbers aren’t perfect. I didn’t take the time to take out offensive player tackles following a turnover, but they should still give us a good idea of stat crews to target for IDP. This is mainly to break ties between players. Don’t trade TJ Ward for Jahleel Addae just because the Chargers award more tackles than the Broncos. You can also use it to help start/sit decisions.

There are two main numbers to look at: Total tackle percentage is the number of total tackles compared to the number of opposing offensive snaps. It’s basically a ratio of how many tackles are awarded per opposing offensive play run. The higher this number is, the more likely that team is to reward tackles. Solo tackle percentage is the number of solo tackles compared to the number of total tackles. For the most part, these two numbers have an inverse relationship. The larger the total tackle percentage is, the smaller the solo tackle percentage is. This is because, in order to gain the larger total tackle percentage, the stat crew needs to award a lot of assists.

Six teams had more total tackles than opposing offensive snap counts. If you think about this for a moment, it’s really incredible. Teams won’t earn tackles if the offense scores, takes a knee, runs out of bounds, throws an incomplete pass, fumbles or throws an interception. Yet six teams awarded enough assists to make up for all those plays that don’t end in a tackle. All of these teams had a solo tackle percentage below 73%. Focus on these teams if your league offers decent points for assists: Bills, Giants, Panthers, ‘Skins, Seahawks, Texans. Special mention goes to the Giants who had the largest total tackle percentage in the league and the largest solo tackle percentage of the group. The Bills and the Texans both had solo tackle percentages of 69% or higher. Seattle had the lowest solo tackle percentage in the league at 45%. Seattle awards more assists than solos. The next lowest solo tackle percentage is 57%.

The Bears, Bucs, Cards, Chargers, Chiefs, Eagles, Jaguars, Lions and Rams all have solo tackle percentages in the 80%s and corresponding total tackle percentages in the 80%s. These stat crews don’t offer a ton of assists which lowers their total tackle percentage. The Bears top the league out at 89% solo tackle percentage. If your IDP isn’t the first to the ball, don’t expect much in the way of stats though. The Cards and Jags both have solo tackle percentages at 88%. These are the teams to target if your league primarily awards solo tackles.

A few quick teams to potentially avoid because both numbers are lower than expected:

-[SIZE=7pt]          [/SIZE]Ravens. Baltimore had the lowest total tackle percentage in the league at 79%, yet had a solo percentage less than 80%. Basically, Raven’s defensive players are the least likely to get a tackle on an opposing offensive play, yet they aren’t correspondingly more likely to get a solo tackle.

-[SIZE=7pt]          [/SIZE]Titans. Tennessee had a solo tackle percentage of 70% but only had a total tackle percentage of 85%.

-[SIZE=7pt]          [/SIZE]Falcons. Atlanta had a total tackle percentage of 84%, but a solo tackle percentage of 73%. Most teams with a 73% solo tackle percentage have a total tackle percentage over 90%.

-[SIZE=7pt]          [/SIZE]Broncos. You would expect a larger solo tackle percentage than 70% from a team only offering 82% total tackle percentage.

The remaining teams all fall somewhere in the spectrum between the top six total tacklers and the top nine solo tacklers.

 

[Arodin]

Great stuff!  Thanks for putting it together!  I've been trying to track some of these this past season, particularly because I have one league which rewards only solo tackles.

In that league, the trend toward awarding "2 assists" instead of "tackle+assist" has been making IDP value wildly variant city to city.

Any chance your data shows the teams most likely to award tackles (with OR without assists) per play?  Also, would you mind linking the whole spreadsheet?  Would be worth perusing.

 

[ChicagoArch]

Any chance your data shows the teams most likely to award tackles (with OR without assists) per play?  Also, would you mind linking the whole spreadsheet?  Would be worth perusing.

This is genius and obvious and I'm annoyed I didn't think of it myself. I added two more numbers. They're the likelihood of a stat crew to award a solo on each play and the likelihood of a stat crew to award an assist on each play.

Here's the link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17bHarVB4tJUvZj51qNLQ8w3-VJNTR-zEH0as0XSBP44/edit?usp=sharing

Everyone can peruse it at their leisure. Let me know if anything else should be added.

 

[worrierking]

Just a question, it looks like you are basing it on offensive snaps, which may be the only way to actually compile the stats.  Could you remove incomplete passes?  Is there a way to do that?  Would that not make it more accurate on a percentage basis?  Or do we only care about raw numbers?

 

[Arodin]

Just a question, it looks like you are basing it on offensive snaps, which may be the only way to actually compile the stats.  Could you remove incomplete passes?  Is there a way to do that?  Would that not make it more accurate on a percentage basis?  Or do we only care about raw numbers?

Should be easy to find team stats for completions and incompletions.  It might make sense to look at these metrics as "tackle per (completion+rush attempt+sack) to zero in on only plays which could produce a tackle.

The question of which denominator is better is an interesting one...is defensive fantasy output better correlated historically with plays, or with opportunities?  I don't know, but would he interested n the answer.

 

[Gally]

Six teams had more total tackles than opposing offensive snap counts. If you think about this for a moment, it’s really incredible. Teams won’t earn tackles if the offense scores, takes a knee, runs out of bounds, throws an incomplete pass, fumbles or throws an interception. Yet six teams awarded enough assists to make up for all those plays that don’t end in a tackle.

I thought the defensive player closes to the runner when he goes out of bounds would be awarded a tackle.  Is that a subjective call based on how close and if he actually "forced" the runner OB? 

 

[The Claymaker]

 Is that a subjective call based on how close and if he actually "forced" the runner OB? 

I think this to be sorta true, I have definitely seen a player on my IDP team chase a guy out of bounds and watch for the tackle to ring-up and it never does. I think unless another player touches that player before he actually goes out of bounds, in MOST cases they will not get a credited tackle. I am also 100% sure you could go back and find a player credited with a tackle in that situation and never touched the player going OOB.  Its just like if a player gives himself up, usually a QB, but once they slide unless touched (helped to the ground) usually it goes as an un-credited tackle, but I am sure if you watched every play from every game you would find some creditied to players that never touched the guy sliding. 

So far, pretty crappy answers by me, but as tackles and assists go, i think you may find slightly different scoring based on home team scorers on a variety of plays. Overall though i think its fairly consistent on those particular type plays, but once in a while you will see them scored. 

 

[worrierking]

My experience is that typically they score a tackle if an opponent forces a runner out of bounds but do not if the runner goes out voluntarily.  I have so little confidence in the consistency of crews that I am sure it's different in different stadiums.

 

[Gally]

I figured it was all subjective in those instances but figured that it makes sense if there is a defender there and the player steps out voluntarily that the defender should get a tackle (whether he touched him or not ) because he was the reason to runner went out of bounds.   QB's sliding is a little different because sometimes there is nobody within 10 yds of the guy when they go into the slide. 

It seems like the NFL would want this to be less subjective and more black and white for these type of instances but maybe they don't care at all.  I get more frustrated when the deem a QB is "running" and don't award a sack and call it a rush. 

 

[Arodin]

I thought the defensive player closes to the runner when he goes out of bounds would be awarded a tackle.  Is that a subjective call based on how close and if he actually "forced" the runner OB? 

This is another thing, like when to award assists, or whether two players making a tackle get tackle+assist or two assists, that is entirely stat crew dependent.  Some crews reliably award a tackle when a player runs out of bounds, even with  nobody in shouting distance.  Others won't unless contact is actually made.

Given how obsessive the NFL, Elias and FF players are about every half-yard on offense, the amount of inconsistency and outright error tolerated in defensive stats amazes me.  

Wish I'd kept notes on which crews did what...I started to toward the end of the season.  I do know that Tampa almost always awards a tackle on every play, and that to earn a solo tackle in Seattle or New England you have to make the tackle before any of your teammates even comes close.

It's why Kwon Alexander and Bradley McDougald are top-10 fantasy starters, and yet McDougald is considered "replacement level at best" by nfl analysts...

 

[ChicagoArch]

Just a question, it looks like you are basing it on offensive snaps, which may be the only way to actually compile the stats.  Could you remove incomplete passes?  Is there a way to do that?  Would that not make it more accurate on a percentage basis?  Or do we only care about raw numbers?

Honestly, it was a matter of limiting time involved. This way it took me a few hours rather than several days eliminating TDs, incomplete passes, etc. I don't know if anyone tracks the number of end of the game kneel downs...

Also, you can reasonably predict how many plays an offense will run in a game. But it would be much harder to predict how many tackle opportunities a defense will have. So this can help when looking at matchups next year.

 

[jedimindtricks]

Just wanted to thank you for sharing your work.  Great stuff.