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kenbrell thompkins (1 Viewer)
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Kenny Powers
Footballguy
No ####ing way. A lot of people in here are just in a "what have you done for me lately" hype craze after this game.
1) This was still preseason, even if it is considered the most important game.
2) I think any smart FF player realizes this was done in a game where Amendola and Gronk (really hoping he doesnt go on PPR now!) did not play. If you arent that smart in FF, you arent picking this no name UDFA WR over proven guys or big names that early in the first place.
3) A lot of people will see a 40-9 final score. A lot of people will again see a no name and guess a lot of his production came later in the game. Every guy in every league isnt a FBG.
I also think its a good thing this game was on Thursday regardless. There are going to be plenty of guys the next few days who have big days and the KT wet dreams wont be the only thing everyone's talking about (well, that and Bush).
Do I think his ADP will go up after tonight? Certainly. Do I expect him to consistently go in the single digit rounds? Hell no.
OG_GF
Footballguy
Yeah the odds of an URFA being a valuable WR in a 10 team redraft are pretty slim.
It's actually, never happened before in the history of ever ... so ... if you draft tomorrow, don't fall for the flavor of the week.
That being said, it's hard not to like the kid. He may have more opportunity than he is ready for ... we will see. I would draft him, but not until the late rounds of my draft, and it's pretty rare (as in never) that I would even consider drafting a rookie WR that wasn't designated the evil Yahoo WR/TE position (see Marques Colston).
It's actually, never happened before in the history of ever ... so ... if you draft tomorrow, don't fall for the flavor of the week.
That being said, it's hard not to like the kid. He may have more opportunity than he is ready for ... we will see. I would draft him, but not until the late rounds of my draft, and it's pretty rare (as in never) that I would even consider drafting a rookie WR that wasn't designated the evil Yahoo WR/TE position (see Marques Colston).
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JamesTheScot
Footballguy
Drop Dwyer. Even if Bell is out for a while, Redman is going to get touches. And you've got plenty of depth in front of him on your roster.
The performance just seems impressive because he's on the same page with Brady. And other than Sudfeld and Amendola, who the hell else does he have to throw it to? Ridley certainly won't catch any passes, Vereen may see an uptick on 3rd down plays, but we all know what kind of season a productive WR in NE can have.
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
Why even draft him then? Your argument basically calls you a fool for drafting him. Why not walk the walk and ignore him no matter the price?
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It is rare to have the WR field so wide open in an elite offense with a HOF QB. I get that people are wary of an UDFA, but the upside here is pretty unprecedented IMO. Amendola and Gronk might take up a bunch of the opportunity, or they might not. Both have problems staying healthy.
OG_GF
Footballguy
Because of the opportunity and the pedigree of that passing game. That's the only reason he's worth drafting at all.
OG_GF
Footballguy
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HurryUpSundays
Footballguy
This is the beauty and the beast within fantasy football.
With Brady, KT could go on to put up remarkable rookie numbers. By the same token, with Bellicek, he could be benched by week 3 or splitting time evenly with Dobson.
I'm a risk taker. And with him 'potentially' being the starter with Brady pulling the pin pointed trigger, KT, at the price of dropping Hartline, is a risk I'm willing to take.
With Brady, KT could go on to put up remarkable rookie numbers. By the same token, with Bellicek, he could be benched by week 3 or splitting time evenly with Dobson.
I'm a risk taker. And with him 'potentially' being the starter with Brady pulling the pin pointed trigger, KT, at the price of dropping Hartline, is a risk I'm willing to take.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Not sure what your agenda is here, but Alfred Jenkins, James Jett and Wayne Chrebet (and a couple others I'm forgetting) all had very solid rookie seasons as UDFA WRs.
EBF
Footballguy
Prepared to eat some crow on this guy if the early indications are a sign of things to come. Didn't take him seriously as a factor in this situation until a couple weeks ago. Now it seems like he's in line for a prominent role and maybe even a productive rookie season.
There is at least one of these out-of-nowhere stories every season. Victor Cruz. Arian Foster. Alfred Morris.
What stands out to me about this case is that this guy literally checks off none of the major boxes that I look for. Not a high pick. Not a good college player. Not a great workout athlete. Doesn't really stand out to me on the field. I don't think there's any way that anyone could have seen this coming apart from keeping your ear to the ground and paying attention to the practice buzz.
After this game the hype train will be in warp drive though. The buy low window is all but slammed shut.
There is at least one of these out-of-nowhere stories every season. Victor Cruz. Arian Foster. Alfred Morris.
What stands out to me about this case is that this guy literally checks off none of the major boxes that I look for. Not a high pick. Not a good college player. Not a great workout athlete. Doesn't really stand out to me on the field. I don't think there's any way that anyone could have seen this coming apart from keeping your ear to the ground and paying attention to the practice buzz.
After this game the hype train will be in warp drive though. The buy low window is all but slammed shut.
OG_GF
Footballguy
I don't have an agenda. I've already said I wanted to draft KT ... had him pegged for like the 15th round. Am I gonna take him now, even earlier? Ahead of the likes of Jeremey Kerley? No, I am not. But, be my guest. Take him in the 9th round. Good luck with that. I think it's too early.
That is all.
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Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
HurryUpSundays
Footballguy
I'm not interested in your bet if that was aimed my way, but did you just say you wouldn't take him before Jeremy Kerley? You don't think the reward out weighs the risk enough to take him over Kerley?
OG_GF
Footballguy
FYI, last year, in my $200 auction draft, I got CJ Spiller for $8 and Alfred Morris for a buck. So, it's not like I have zero history of pulling late round gold outta my butt.
He could be the next "it guy", like Victor Cruz was .... breaks out of nowhere, and just wants it bad enough to beat out some really top notch, early round draft picks.
Could be. Not saying he's not. But even if he is, chances of him cracking my roster this year are pretty slim. Really, prettay ... prettay slim.
Possible .... but slim. Dynasty ... I'd be all over it. Redraft ... not so much.
He could be the next "it guy", like Victor Cruz was .... breaks out of nowhere, and just wants it bad enough to beat out some really top notch, early round draft picks.
Could be. Not saying he's not. But even if he is, chances of him cracking my roster this year are pretty slim. Really, prettay ... prettay slim.
Possible .... but slim. Dynasty ... I'd be all over it. Redraft ... not so much.
OG_GF
Footballguy
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
Are you talking about his college tape or the preseason?
The dude is great (for a rookie) at defeating the press. He has sticky hands and quick hands. He's getting enough separation (albeit against the Detroit DB's) that Mallet can hit him on the short routes.
I don't fault anyone for keeping his value low because he is young and his share of the pie could be small just because Gronk, Amendola and Vereen could get earlier looks in the progressions. But if you are keeping his value low because you aren't seeing why he's starting, that surprises me.
What is interesting is that his measurables aren't amazing. So the assumption is that he's unusually skilled for his pedigree but not that special an athlete. I'm not convinced he's at much of an athletic disadvantage. But nor do I think that he can't get even better at the craft. He isn't showing Jerry Rice skill just yet, but he isn't looking like a Robiskie type (polished but unfortunately already at peak development) either.
OG_GF
Footballguy
The reason is very simple. I think Kerley will be more consistent. KT could be VERY touch and go for the first 7 or 8 games, I would not be comfortable putting him in my starting lineup. If he proves himself, yeah, maybe he could be a guy you would want to start in the flex. Kerley? Sure, he's not likely to have many spectacular games ... but he'll have less zeros too. He has more chance, to break my starting lineup, on a bye week, or if a stud gets hurt.
KT is not boom or bust. KT is hopefully serviceable or bust.
KT is not boom or bust. KT is hopefully serviceable or bust.
HurryUpSundays
Footballguy
Who said anything about Tavon ahead of him? I drafted Tavon and picked up KT off the wire.
Kerley over KT?
Puff, puff, give, dawg..
EBF
Footballguy
I was going to comment on this a couple days ago, but didn't want to get dragged into an ugly debate. The impression that I've gotten from reading the practice reports is that Thompkins is less of an overwhelming athlete and more of a crafty technician whose route savvy and football IQ are way ahead of the curve.
The concern from that standpoint is that he might already be close to maxed out. A raw athlete can get better at running routes and recognizing coverages, but a savvy technician can't get any bigger of faster. So do the other rookies (who some would say are better pure athletes than Thompkins) eventually surpass him when they catch up in terms of the intangibles? I think it's possible, but that could take years. It's clear that Thompkins is the preferred option for the here and now. 2-3 years down the road, maybe the story looks a lot different.
In terms of comparisons, I'm not seeing Thompkins as another Chad Johnson. Chad was a dynamite athlete despite his combine numbers and a monster big play threat (averaged 20+ yards per catch in his one year at Oregon State). It's early, but Thompkins is looking like more of a TJ Houshmandzadeh kind of guy. A reliable possession target. Not a gamebreaker. And that's odd because he has the body type of a finesse WR (he's on the thin side of the scale). So either he's more explosive than what we've seen so far or he's just kind of a unique guy whose style doesn't quite jive with the conventional molds.
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OG_GF
Footballguy
Just to play devils advocate ... a savvy technician can become bigger and faster. See, Tom Brady.
But that's the issue. Right now he is not bigger and faster. Right now ... he's not a starter on your fantasy team, where other rookies and some seasoned vet WRs might be, and that's why he will be drafted too early, in leagues drafting this weekend.
He had one good preseason game ... ruined my chances of getting him in the 15th like I planned.
But that's the issue. Right now he is not bigger and faster. Right now ... he's not a starter on your fantasy team, where other rookies and some seasoned vet WRs might be, and that's why he will be drafted too early, in leagues drafting this weekend.
He had one good preseason game ... ruined my chances of getting him in the 15th like I planned.
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pghrob
Footballguy
This post would have been fun to read if made by that SWC (I think) guy with that brohans shtick. Regardless of that musing on my part, I agree. Sort of an inability to believe what we are seeing.
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buck naked
Footballguy
I'm just the opposite. In my high stakes leagues, I go for the higher risk. So do many of the other players.
Chrebet was a UDFA that not only outshined the top pick of the whole draft, but went on to have the best two or three first years of any WR ever(then).
Shutout
Footballguy
If it were a team other than the Patriots I might be more inclined to think this translates throughout the season. THey have so many issues they are trying to resolve with players that I think they simply are still working through it and the secondary coverage by the Lions last night wasn't what I would call a great litmus test.
I am completely reading tea leaves in this as I follow the Patriots through this but it seems to me that KT is what he is already and thats it and he's more ready right now than guys like DObson but that the team probably thinks some of the other guys can evolve to be more. As an example, when I watch Dobson (and I admit up front, I've been a Dobson guy from the beginning so this is likely biased), I don't see Dobson as polished today, but I see him flash glimmers of things that I doubt KT can do. I can see Dobson coming along and being more refined and developing into a threat at all points on the field with his size, speed, hands, and tat quirky knack for making odd-angled catches.
I am completely reading tea leaves in this as I follow the Patriots through this but it seems to me that KT is what he is already and thats it and he's more ready right now than guys like DObson but that the team probably thinks some of the other guys can evolve to be more. As an example, when I watch Dobson (and I admit up front, I've been a Dobson guy from the beginning so this is likely biased), I don't see Dobson as polished today, but I see him flash glimmers of things that I doubt KT can do. I can see Dobson coming along and being more refined and developing into a threat at all points on the field with his size, speed, hands, and tat quirky knack for making odd-angled catches.
MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
8th round is starting at pick 85 (12 team, PPR - all my leagues are PPR)
Based on the link, here are the WRs I would rather have:
Miles Austin
Mike Williams (only slightly)
Justin Blackmon (even with suspension since I have most likely already drafted my starting 3 WRs)
Lance Moore
Vincent Brown
DeAndre Hopkins (especially keeper potential)
Michael Crabtree (if keeper, maybe in 10th)
Chris Givens
Emmanuel Sanders (only slightly)
Cordarelle Patterson (especially keeper potential)
Denarius Moore (only slightly)
Note that I am basing this on the fact that while he had a good game, it was without Gronk and Amendola being out and the Pats not being able to run the ball at all. Do we really think Ridley will have 100 yards rushing this year? Do we think Vereen has 1 catch for -2 every game. Something tells me I won't have Thompkins on my teams if he is going 8-10. Also, it is pre-season, Thompkins was 1-3 last week when Brady and the Pats had a much better game. Two differences from last night, Amendola played and starred and the running game averaged 5.1 ypc instead of 2.3 ypc. I just don't think the Pats will be getting blown out/turning the ball over that much all year.
Last thought, when I draft guys this late, I am thinking bye week sub ins or late season potential (like Blackmon post suspension). Bye week substitution is tough because last week Thompkins was virtually ignored for Amendola, so he has the potential to be very hit and miss. Late season is also not a great outlook as the running game will be going and Gronk will be healthy. The only game changer is if Amendola is actually hurt, which I don't believe he is, at least enough to miss time.
We Tigers
Footballguy
I'll play, too:Josh Gordon
Mike Williams
Kenny Britt
Chris Givens
Vincent Brown
Golden Tate
Those are the guys I would definitely take over Thompkins in the 8th-10th. I might also consider Broyles, Michael Floyd, Hopkins, Sanders, Hartline, and Rueben Randle, but I would put Thompkins in that mix, as they'd be similarly speculative picks. I'd consider Blackmon, too, depending on how deep my WRs were to that point.
Another thing to be careful of when figuring out where to draft Thompkins is recency bias. Thompkins looked awesome last night, but don't forget that guys like Tate, Broyles, and Givens have already had that same kind of game/statline/dominance at least once during the actual 2012 season.
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Black
Footballguy
Gordon would most definitely be on my list as well. In that link in PPR he is at 81, so just before my cutoff. I think that shows you how overrated Thompkins has become due to a "not normal" game for the Patriots. They don't normally lose 40-9. They don't normally have their #1 WR and #1 TE out. They don't normally average 2ypc rushing. They don't normally turn the ball over 4 times in the first 19 minutes of a game.
I actually like Thompkins, but if he is going in the 8th round, I just don't see any chance of getting him. I looked at all 3 games, 4-23, 1-3 and 8-116. He has had one target in 3 games from Mallett at the 8 yard line that was inside of the 10. He had one target at the 21 and one at the 19 and was 0-3 in those red-zone attempts. Also, that one attempt from the 8 was last night with Amendola and Gronk out. Is he a legitimate TD candidate? He is averaging less than 11 ypr (8.75ypr plus one 37 yarder), so if he is just a posession type receiver with a low ypr, he is going to need a ton of receptions to be relevant and in a game where Vereen + Gronk + Amendola get 1 reception combined, I would be real worried about him being way overvalued.
jbalicki10
Footballguy
Drafted Thompkins in the 12th last week thinking i better get him here because of all the press. Nobody in the draft knew who he was. I still dont think many people still do. I was laughed at. But if you drafted Amdendola, Thompkins not Edleman is the man to own if and when he goes down.
I think that is a good decision, especially in dynasty. Thompkins could be OK in PPR, but it is outlandish to think that next year or even later this year the other higher draft pick WRs "get it" and outplay Thompkins? I think that is a risk high enough that taking Thompkins over some guys with really high potential could be a horrible mistake a couple years from now. If 8-116 with no TDs is Thompkins ceiling in a 40-9 blowout where the top 3 receivers on the Pats (Amendola, Gronk and Vereen) get 1 reception, that is a big risk. The guys you listed are guys who could bust, but who could also end up as top 10 guys over their careers.
12th round is a good spot for him. You aren't risking a whole lot and you have a guy who is a solid start if Amendola misses any games.
TALL hobbit
Footballguy
I think you nailed what Thompkins is in the first part. He just finds a way to get open. As important, Brady seems to trust him. The skills he has allow him to play at a faster speed than his measurables would indicate. It's kind of like when a less athletic defensive player is still a strong contributor because he has a real nose for the football.
TALL hobbit
Footballguy
Do you see Dobson developing those traits this season - or are you thinking ahead for dynasty purposes? just curious.
I agree with the premise that Dobson has more room for refinement. But I don't think Dobson improving will necessarily marginalize KT - I think the Pats would prefer to get back to a balance where they spread the ball around to the open guy and not be too reliant on any one WR anymore.
He made an absolute fool of Chris Houston at the LOS for one of his catches last night. Juked him out of his shoes when Houston was in press to get away clean and make the catch.
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