Kenny Britt, WR, Tennessee Titans (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Kenny Britt, WR, Tennessee Titans

Player Page Link: Kenny Britt Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[mphtrilogy]

boom or bust..

i'll go boom

1400 yards

13 tds

90 rec

 

[Phlash]

boom or bust..i'll go boom1400 yards13 tds90 rec

Sums it up nicely for me. I have him doing the following80 catches1250 receiving yards12 TDs

 

[David Yudkin]

First year back after major knee surgery that already required additional surgery is enough of a flag for me to suggest lower totals. Quotes that he hopes he can be able to play by opening day not giving me the warm and fuzzies. Maybe he will be closer to himself by the end of the year, but I would rather let someone else deal with wondering when Britt will be 100% in terms of quickness, cutting, endurance, and availability. 55-875-5

 

[Benchwarmers]

He was unstoppable last year but is coming off a injury. Having the clean up surgery makes actually feel better about him this year.

85 catches

1350 receiving yards

12 TDs

I think its a good time to trade for him. Some owners down on him and you can get him cheaper now rather than later.

I see him falling in drafts to the late 5th round or early 6th. Well worth a pick there.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

First year back after major knee surgery that already required additional surgery is enough of a flag for me to suggest lower totals. Quotes that he hopes he can be able to play by opening day not giving me the warm and fuzzies. Maybe he will be closer to himself by the end of the year, but I would rather let someone else deal with wondering when Britt will be 100% in terms of quickness, cutting, endurance, and availability. 55-875-5

Some insane projections in here for a guy coming off of a season-ending knee injury, playing in a run 1st offense, and catching passes from a mediocre-at-best QB. 12 TDS?!?! Not unless Warren Moon comes out of retirement and they go back to the run and shoot, even if Britt is 100% week one.I love Britt's talent; he's definitely on my dynasty buy list. I doubt I'll own him in any redrafts this year though, if the above numbers are at all representative of where people value him.60 - 900 - 6

 

[Donsmith753]

Dynasty buy

Redraft wait and see how far he falls (lot of WR options this year)

 

[footballnerd]

I'm a sucker every year.....so tempting....

 

[Zimm]

boom or bust..i'll go boom1400 yards13 tds90 rec

I think he will have a breakout year this year, but i do think he will get off to a slow start.75-1150-11

 

[Sabertooth]

People are putting a lot of stock in a small sample size.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

People are putting a lot of stock in a small sample size.

Eh. I'm putting a lot of stock into what I've seen, not necessarily the numbers it resulted in.

 

[Tau837]

People are putting a lot of stock in a small sample size.

Eh. I'm putting a lot of stock into what I've seen, not necessarily the numbers it resulted in.

 

[lbouchard]

Lotta optimism in here. I especially liked the comment, "The cleanup surgery makes me feel better about him" lol

 

[SproutDaddy]

Lotta optimism in here. I especially liked the comment, "The cleanup surgery makes me feel better about him" lol

Didn't seem to hurt Colston.

 

[az_prof]

65/850/6

I am worried about his health. He has a horrible QB situation. He has more competition. He has never done it for a complete year as a fantasy stud so I can't draft him as one. He does have talent but it takes more than talent.

EDITED following News of his SECOND knee surgery, on the other knee.

Given that he has had three knee surgeries this off season, will get no preseason reps, and could start the year on PUP, I am downgrading my projections:

45/700/4

 

[Sabertooth]

People are putting a lot of stock in a small sample size.

Eh. I'm putting a lot of stock into what I've seen, not necessarily the numbers it resulted in.

Like the fluke 85 yard touchdown that accounted for about 30% of his yards last season?

 

[Sabertooth]

Lotta optimism in here. I especially liked the comment, "The cleanup surgery makes me feel better about him" lol

 

[JPeso]

People are putting a lot of stock in a small sample size.

Eh. I'm putting a lot of stock into what I've seen, not necessarily the numbers it resulted in.

Right. Little to do with the 20 PPG in PPR leagues and more to do with the fact he couldn't be stopped.

 

[lbouchard]

Lotta optimism in here. I especially liked the comment, "The cleanup surgery makes me feel better about him" lol

Didn't seem to hurt Colston.

Please explain how, in any world, having an additional surgery would make you feel BETTER about him?

 

[gandalas]

Lotta optimism in here. I especially liked the comment, "The cleanup surgery makes me feel better about him" lol

Didn't seem to hurt Colston.

Please explain how, in any world, having an additional surgery would make you feel BETTER about him?

If it was a minor clean-up of an existing problem, then obviously getting it fixed now is better than playing through it all season. Just like I was not too disturbed about MJD's clean-up last year, and Beanie's one from this year.Sometimes, having a required corrective surgery early is a GOOD thing.

 

[Sabertooth]

People are putting a lot of stock in a small sample size.

Eh. I'm putting a lot of stock into what I've seen, not necessarily the numbers it resulted in.

Right. Little to do with the 20 PPG in PPR leagues and more to do with the fact he couldn't be stopped.

ok.

 

[lbouchard]

Lotta optimism in here. I especially liked the comment, "The cleanup surgery makes me feel better about him" lol

Didn't seem to hurt Colston.

Please explain how, in any world, having an additional surgery would make you feel BETTER about him?

If it was a minor clean-up of an existing problem, then obviously getting it fixed now is better than playing through it all season. Just like I was not too disturbed about MJD's clean-up last year, and Beanie's one from this year.Sometimes, having a required corrective surgery early is a GOOD thing.

Clearly I would rather have a guy get the surgery earlier, but the fact that he needed a cleanup is worrisome to me. Charles, AP, Mendenhall and others that have torn their ACL haven't needed additional surgeries

 

[menobrown]

People are putting a lot of stock in a small sample size.

Eh. I'm putting a lot of stock into what I've seen, not necessarily the numbers it resulted in.

Right. Little to do with the 20 PPG in PPR leagues and more to do with the fact he couldn't be stopped.

ok.

No matter how you slice the sample size it's not large but I view his sample size as more than what he did during his only 2 healthy games last year. The reason I was high on him entering last season was his sample size when Vince Young was not throwing to him. Usually that resulted in Kerry Collins throwing to him and Britt's numbers spiked dramatically and this is Kerry Collins we are talking about.By my count he's had 11 games in his career were Vince Young did not play. In those 11 games he caught 57 passes/1103 yards/8 TDs. There were 3 other games Vince played a half or less. If you want to include those games it does bring down his numbers but increases the sample size to 14 games and leaves him with 61/1211/9. 2,11, or 14 games is all relatively small samples but I think it's a strong indicator of what this guy is capable of doing when healthy. But honestly I'm a little surprised there is a need to discuss his ability when healthy, as Jpeso pointed out he easily passes the eye test. Can't see how to many people could be questioning his talent at this point, provided of course he's healthy.The health is of course a major concern and it's been bit of a roller coaster with the news on him. At first I was worried a guy with his off the field issues would approach the arduous and boring process of rehab with proper zest. Was also worried that left alone he'd get into more trouble. All reports seem to suggest those concerns were not necessary. Keep hearing nothing but positive news about his rehab to the point I felt he was worth a 3rd/4th round type redraft pick. Than the mention of the second surgery and doubt crept back. They assure us it's "minor" so nothing to panic on but not good news. Than you hear he's back ahead of schedule and you start feeling good again. This is followed by him giving an interview were he ends the interview by saying he "prays" he can be out there for opening day. Yikes!To sum it up. I don't think talent is a question and if you can perform with Kerry Collins I'm not concerned if its Locker or Hassellbeck throwing to him. I think one major plus with him versus last year is the off the field worries are no longer present. But all that being said I think his best chance to be the Kenny Britt we saw in 2011 is in 2013. I just don't think the health is going to be were you need it to be next season to warrant taking him anything close to the 3rd/4th round level I once saw him as in redrafts. To me more like a 6th/7th round type redraft player. Maybe the kind of player you can bury early in the season in hopes his health improves as the season goes on and he offers you high upside late in the year, similar to a Demaryius Thomas type from last year.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

People are putting a lot of stock in a small sample size.

Eh. I'm putting a lot of stock into what I've seen, not necessarily the numbers it resulted in.

Like the fluke 85 yard touchdown that accounted for about 30% of his yards last season?

No, not like that. Perhaps you should re-read my post.

 

[FF Ninja]

People are putting a lot of stock in a small sample size.

Eh. I'm putting a lot of stock into what I've seen, not necessarily the numbers it resulted in.

Like the fluke 85 yard touchdown that accounted for about 30% of his yards last season?

I opened this thread up just to make sure that someone mentioned this play. People may claim to have seen elite talent, but I think without that shuffle pass we don't see numbers anywhere close to what we're seeing here.In the AJ Green thread someone pointed out that a WR catching 40% of the receiving TDs is really, really good. How many passing TDs is everyone in here projecting for the Titans? I'm thinking 20-24 is generous, so if Britt has a great year then 8-10 TD for him. If he just has a good year (25%) then 5-6.Assuming he's healthy AND Hasselbeck is still playing well:130 targets x 60% = 75 rec x 16 ypr = 1248 yds 7 TDAssuming he's healthy but with Hasselbeck playing like a 37 yr old QB or Locker is starter:110 targets x 55% = 60 rec x 16 ypr = 960 yds 4 TDWhy the discrepancy? Because I think they'll run more if their QB play is bad (keep in mind, CJ was terrible to begin the season last year so they were throwing the ball a lot). I also don't think they'll score much. I think Tennessee will be bad this year. Add to the fact that I'm not convinced he's going to be 100% healthy, and I'll gladly pass on him at WR22 for Stevie Johnson (WR24) whose groin was injured all last year, Antonio Brown (WR26) who is devalued due to last year's TD total, or (my favorite) Brandon Lloyd (WR27).

 

[Sabertooth]

People are putting a lot of stock in a small sample size.

Eh. I'm putting a lot of stock into what I've seen, not necessarily the numbers it resulted in.

Like the fluke 85 yard touchdown that accounted for about 30% of his yards last season?

I opened this thread up just to make sure that someone mentioned this play. People may claim to have seen elite talent, but I think without that shuffle pass we don't see numbers anywhere close to what we're seeing here.In the AJ Green thread someone pointed out that a WR catching 40% of the receiving TDs is really, really good. How many passing TDs is everyone in here projecting for the Titans? I'm thinking 20-24 is generous, so if Britt has a great year then 8-10 TD for him. If he just has a good year (25%) then 5-6.Assuming he's healthy AND Hasselbeck is still playing well:130 targets x 60% = 75 rec x 16 ypr = 1248 yds 7 TDAssuming he's healthy but with Hasselbeck playing like a 37 yr old QB or Locker is starter:110 targets x 55% = 60 rec x 16 ypr = 960 yds 4 TDWhy the discrepancy? Because I think they'll run more if their QB play is bad (keep in mind, CJ was terrible to begin the season last year so they were throwing the ball a lot). I also don't think they'll score much. I think Tennessee will be bad this year. Add to the fact that I'm not convinced he's going to be 100% healthy, and I'll gladly pass on him at WR22 for Stevie Johnson (WR24) whose groin was injured all last year, Antonio Brown (WR26) who is devalued due to last year's TD total, or (my favorite) Brandon Lloyd (WR27).

You were a total tool in the other thread, but I have to say I agree with your analysis 100% here.

 

[Sabertooth]

Lotta optimism in here. I especially liked the comment, "The cleanup surgery makes me feel better about him" lol

Didn't seem to hurt Colston.

Please explain how, in any world, having an additional surgery would make you feel BETTER about him?

If it was a minor clean-up of an existing problem, then obviously getting it fixed now is better than playing through it all season. Just like I was not too disturbed about MJD's clean-up last year, and Beanie's one from this year.Sometimes, having a required corrective surgery early is a GOOD thing.

Clearly I would rather have a guy get the surgery earlier, but the fact that he needed a cleanup is worrisome to me. Charles, AP, Mendenhall and others that have torn their ACL haven't needed additional surgeries

Precisely. They don't just go in and do surgery on a guy for the heck of it when he's doing well.

 

[footballnerd]

at first glance it looks like they have a pretty nice looking passing schedule.

 

[FF Ninja]

You were a total tool in the other thread, but I have to say I agree with your analysis 100% here.

Which thread was that? Greene? Sorry, but I don't care for ignorant opinions being stated as fact and it is even more irritating when someone offers absolutely no support for their ignorant opinion, yet declares my statistically sound argument to be flimsy. It is ok to be unintelligent and/or uninformed, but to spread misinformation to others is intolerable. If more people in the SP took a hard line stance against that kind of posting this place would be much better off. The argument is that people will just stop posting, but I contend that, sure, the sheer number of posts would decline by the loss of worthless posts, but those that did post would actually put thought and effort into their posts, making this place a much more dense information source.Or were you offended that I blew off your eyeball test of McGahee vs. Greene? I come here for actual information such as injury info, coaching changes, coaching tendencies, statistical trends, etc. I couldn't care less about anyone's eyeball opinion of a player's talent with the exception of Matt Waldman. So don't be offended. I care equally about your eyeball assessment as I do everyone else's. No offense was meant.

 

[az_prof]

Latest news on Kenny Britt(le).

"Kenny Britt plans to keep rehabbing in town

Posted on June 21, 2012 by JIM WYATT, The Tennessean

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Many of his teammates are headed out of town on vacation, but Titans wide receiver Kenny Britt plans to work out in Nashville with trainers.

“It is the same thing as the offseason,” Britt said as the team wrapped up its minicamp. “Everybody left and I was here. … My goal is to get my knee right to help the team out.”

Britt continues to work his way back from the torn ACL and MCL he suffered in Week 3 last season. He has increased his workload recently since a scope on the knee last month. The Titans want Britt to remain at Baptist Sports Park instead of rehabbing elsewhere. He has no problem with the plan.

“I want to get my work in and make sure my knee is right and make sure I am doing the right thing to get my knee right,” he said. “Do I think I am going to be ready (for the season opener)? I am confident I’ll be ready. We just don’t know what God has in store for me that day. But I am pushing for it and my goal is to be there in camp with the guys.”

Coach Mike Munchak said he hopes Britt will be able to participate in drills early in training camp, which starts the last weekend of July, but he doesn’t expect him to practice fully until later in camp.

Britt got off to an unbelievable start in 2011. He had 17 catches for 289 yards and three touchdowns in less than three games before he was injured. So can he return to form this fall?

“We don’t even know what the real Kenny Britt could be like because we’ve never had a Kenny Britt the whole season except for my rookie year,” Britt said. “Hopefully, God willing, I will go through the whole season healthy and try and get on the same page I was on last year.”

http://blogs.tennessean.com/titans/2012/06/21/kenny-britt-plans-to-keep-rehabbing-in-town/

 

[David Yudkin]

I will echo my earlier concerns. A guy that was "unstoppable" as some say did so based on speed, cutting, and elusiveness. First year back, all of those will be worse than they were pre-injury. So what made him dynamic will be impaired until he fully recovers. If he struggles to run routes the same, can't get as open, can't blow by people, and can't outrun people, he will not perform anywhere near the same as he did or approach lofty numbers this year. I would be willing to give him the benefit of the doubt next year, but for now I would temper my enthusiasm.

I would also have the same comments for guys like ADP and Charles. I just don't see guys coming back from major injuries and be 100% out of the gate.

 

[Tau837]

I will echo my earlier concerns. A guy that was "unstoppable" as some say did so based on speed, cutting, and elusiveness. First year back, all of those will be worse than they were pre-injury. So what made him dynamic will be impaired until he fully recovers. If he struggles to run routes the same, can't get as open, can't blow by people, and can't outrun people, he will not perform anywhere near the same as he did or approach lofty numbers this year. I would be willing to give him the benefit of the doubt next year, but for now I would temper my enthusiasm.I would also have the same comments for guys like ADP and Charles. I just don't see guys coming back from major injuries and be 100% out of the gate.

I understand this view, but Britt's situation is different from Peterson's; Britt's injury occurred 3 months earlier. Not quite the same.

 

[msommer]

People are putting a lot of stock in a small sample size.

Eh. I'm putting a lot of stock into what I've seen, not necessarily the numbers it resulted in.

Like the fluke 85 yard touchdown that accounted for about 30% of his yards last season?

I opened this thread up just to make sure that someone mentioned this play. People may claim to have seen elite talent, but I think without that shuffle pass we don't see numbers anywhere close to what we're seeing here.In the AJ Green thread someone pointed out that a WR catching 40% of the receiving TDs is really, really good. How many passing TDs is everyone in here projecting for the Titans? I'm thinking 20-24 is generous, so if Britt has a great year then 8-10 TD for him. If he just has a good year (25%) then 5-6.

Assuming he's healthy AND Hasselbeck is still playing well:

130 targets x 60% = 75 rec x 16 ypr = 1248 yds 7 TD

Assuming he's healthy but with Hasselbeck playing like a 37 yr old QB or Locker is starter:

110 targets x 55% = 60 rec x 16 ypr = 960 yds 4 TD

Why the discrepancy? Because I think they'll run more if their QB play is bad (keep in mind, CJ was terrible to begin the season last year so they were throwing the ball a lot). I also don't think they'll score much. I think Tennessee will be bad this year. Add to the fact that I'm not convinced he's going to be 100% healthy, and I'll gladly pass on him at WR22 for Stevie Johnson (WR24) whose groin was injured all last year, Antonio Brown (WR26) who is devalued due to last year's TD total, or (my favorite) Brandon Lloyd (WR27).

With basis in your later post, I'm paraphrasing here, about opinion being passed off as fact, please explain your reasoning for the bolded assumption

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

First of all, I haven't been back to the shark pool in months-the knowledge level of the posters is pretty amazing. JWB and FF Ninja keep doing what you're doing

Now, back to Britt

I love the guy, reaped the rewards of drafting him in the 19th round in 2010 (humblebrag), but unless he falls he won't be on my team this year. Most people who love Britt this year-though not here-look at the 3 game sample size and extrapolate out, but I can't get over the one fluky play that made up nearly 1/3 of his yard and TD totals. Of course I won't forget that play because it was against me

Combine that with his seemingly chronic injury concerns and I'm scared off.

He was a talented unknown in 2010, he was a great value candidate in 2011 but he looks like he won't be a value in 2012

 

[footballnerd]

In the AJ Green thread someone pointed out that a WR catching 40% of the receiving TDs is really, really good. How many passing TDs is everyone in here projecting for the Titans? I'm thinking 20-24 is generous, so if Britt has a great year then 8-10 TD for him. If he just has a good year (25%) then 5-6.

Assuming he's healthy AND Hasselbeck is still playing well:

130 targets x 60% = 75 rec x 16 ypr = 1248 yds 7 TD

Assuming he's healthy but with Hasselbeck playing like a 37 yr old QB or Locker is starter:

110 targets x 55% = 60 rec x 16 ypr = 960 yds 4 TD

Why the discrepancy? Because I think they'll run more if their QB play is bad (keep in mind, CJ was terrible to begin the season last year so they were throwing the ball a lot). I also don't think they'll score much. I think Tennessee will be bad this year. Add to the fact that I'm not convinced he's going to be 100% healthy, and I'll gladly pass on him at WR22 for Stevie Johnson (WR24) whose groin was injured all last year, Antonio Brown (WR26) who is devalued due to last year's TD total, or (my favorite) Brandon Lloyd (WR27).

Not that I'm saying Britt will do it (health reasons) this year but this kid had 12 TDs in his last 13 games. In 2010 TEN as a team had 24 total TDs, Britt had 9 of the 19 TEN TDs in the games he played in. Include the 3 games he played in 2011 and he had 12 of the last 24 TEN TDs in games he played in. He did it in 2010 with "quality" QBs in Kerry Collins and Vince Young in a year where Chris Johnson rushed 300+ times. So if 40% of a teams TDs is really really good, I wonder what 50% is. If completely healthy he would be a huge part of this teams production.

 

[Steel Dillo]

All these posts & nobody mentions his bonehead factor?

Injury or no injury, I'd be hesitant to draft Britt high because I can't trust that he won't do something stupid & get suspended before or during the season.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

In the AJ Green thread someone pointed out that a WR catching 40% of the receiving TDs is really, really good. How many passing TDs is everyone in here projecting for the Titans? I'm thinking 20-24 is generous, so if Britt has a great year then 8-10 TD for him. If he just has a good year (25%) then 5-6.

Assuming he's healthy AND Hasselbeck is still playing well:

130 targets x 60% = 75 rec x 16 ypr = 1248 yds 7 TD

Assuming he's healthy but with Hasselbeck playing like a 37 yr old QB or Locker is starter:

110 targets x 55% = 60 rec x 16 ypr = 960 yds 4 TD

Why the discrepancy? Because I think they'll run more if their QB play is bad (keep in mind, CJ was terrible to begin the season last year so they were throwing the ball a lot). I also don't think they'll score much. I think Tennessee will be bad this year. Add to the fact that I'm not convinced he's going to be 100% healthy, and I'll gladly pass on him at WR22 for Stevie Johnson (WR24) whose groin was injured all last year, Antonio Brown (WR26) who is devalued due to last year's TD total, or (my favorite) Brandon Lloyd (WR27).

Not that I'm saying Britt will do it (health reasons) this year but this kid had 12 TDs in his last 13 games. In 2010 TEN as a team had 24 total TDs, Britt had 9 of the 19 TEN TDs in the games he played in. Include the 3 games he played in 2011 and he had 12 of the last 24 TEN TDs in games he played in. He did it in 2010 with "quality" QBs in Kerry Collins and Vince Young in a year where Chris Johnson rushed 300+ times. So if 40% of a teams TDs is really really good, I wonder what 50% is. If completely healthy he would be a huge part of this teams production.

I'm on the other side of the Britt discussion, but this is quality work

 

[Sabertooth]

All these posts & nobody mentions his bonehead factor?Injury or no injury, I'd be hesitant to draft Britt high because I can't trust that he won't do something stupid & get suspended before or during the season.

One of the reasons I packaged him with some others to acquire AJ Green in dynasty. Similar to Dez Bryant in that respect.

 

[lbouchard]

All these posts & nobody mentions his bonehead factor?

Injury or no injury, I'd be hesitant to draft Britt high because I can't trust that he won't do something stupid & get suspended before or during the season.

One of the reasons I packaged him with some others to acquire AJ Green in dynasty. Similar to Dez Bryant in that respect.

For all the #### that Dez gets, he has never been arrested.

 

[nittanylion]

I thought reports were that Britt has matured over time, and most of the knucklehead behavior is in the rear view mirror? Wasn't most of that stuff dispelled courtesy of how he handled himself post injury, and during rehab?

I have reservations about Britt, but they don't involve Britt the person. Britt the health risk? Right now, if he fell to me in the late 6th/early 7th, as a WR3, I'd do it...and I'd probably view my WR3 as a WR3BC, and draft a few more upside guys maybe a round or two earlier, just to make sure I had a solid rotation, just in case. That's right now.

The things I've read, lead me to believe the Titans have it in them to evolve into more of a throwing offense. Obviously, they can't do this without solid QB play, but I have faith that Hasselbeck is going to perform somewhere around QB 20, and that if Locker is good enough to work past him and see the field, then the Titans QB position will be in pretty decent hands, and good for a solid 20 Pass TD's, maybe a couple more. That puts Britt right in 8+ TD territory. Between Chris Johnson, Jared Cook and the WR group, there are several quality mouths to feed, but that also means honest coverage. I'm high on Chris Johnson this year, and I think the effective running game will open up the pass, and Britt could be a deadly part of play action, ripping off big chunks.

I think you have to weather the storm with Britt, and tolerate 4-8 games of unpredictable production. Might be able to pick him up cheap from a trigger-happy League mate. I think he'll hit his stride around midseason and have a very productive 2nd half. Certainly a solid buy-low candidate, and if you can insulate him with a few complimentary pieces so you aren't any more than flex-dependent on him early on, I think that's the right equation to reap nice rewards from Britt from November on, when he can be a productive member of your starting lineup.

Just my .02...

 

[FF Ninja]

People are putting a lot of stock in a small sample size.

Eh. I'm putting a lot of stock into what I've seen, not necessarily the numbers it resulted in.

Like the fluke 85 yard touchdown that accounted for about 30% of his yards last season?

I opened this thread up just to make sure that someone mentioned this play. People may claim to have seen elite talent, but I think without that shuffle pass we don't see numbers anywhere close to what we're seeing here.In the AJ Green thread someone pointed out that a WR catching 40% of the receiving TDs is really, really good. How many passing TDs is everyone in here projecting for the Titans? I'm thinking 20-24 is generous, so if Britt has a great year then 8-10 TD for him. If he just has a good year (25%) then 5-6.

Assuming he's healthy AND Hasselbeck is still playing well:

130 targets x 60% = 75 rec x 16 ypr = 1248 yds 7 TD

Assuming he's healthy but with Hasselbeck playing like a 37 yr old QB or Locker is starter:

110 targets x 55% = 60 rec x 16 ypr = 960 yds 4 TD

Why the discrepancy? Because I think they'll run more if their QB play is bad (keep in mind, CJ was terrible to begin the season last year so they were throwing the ball a lot). I also don't think they'll score much. I think Tennessee will be bad this year. Add to the fact that I'm not convinced he's going to be 100% healthy, and I'll gladly pass on him at WR22 for Stevie Johnson (WR24) whose groin was injured all last year, Antonio Brown (WR26) who is devalued due to last year's TD total, or (my favorite) Brandon Lloyd (WR27).

With basis in your later post, I'm paraphrasing here, about opinion being passed off as fact, please explain your reasoning for the bolded assumption

Well, first and foremost, both of my statements were precluded by "I think" rather than being a baseless blanket statement like "McGahee is better than Greene". Second, what has Tennessee done to get better? Have they added any pieces that make you believe they'll be improved? The Hass isn't getting any younger and Locker's potential has been widely questioned at all levels (scouts down to forum posters). I don't think it is safe to bank of a rookie WR to be productive. It can and does happen, but I still don't think it is the norm.

They ranked 21st in ppg last year. These are the teams ranked below them and it seems most of them have done more to improve their offense than the Titans:

Pittsburgh Steelers

Seattle Seahawks

Arizona Cardinals

Denver Broncos

Washington Redskins

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville Jaguars

Cleveland Browns

Kansas City Chiefs

St. Louis Rams

 

[FF Ninja]

In the AJ Green thread someone pointed out that a WR catching 40% of the receiving TDs is really, really good. How many passing TDs is everyone in here projecting for the Titans? I'm thinking 20-24 is generous, so if Britt has a great year then 8-10 TD for him. If he just has a good year (25%) then 5-6.

Assuming he's healthy AND Hasselbeck is still playing well:

130 targets x 60% = 75 rec x 16 ypr = 1248 yds 7 TD

Assuming he's healthy but with Hasselbeck playing like a 37 yr old QB or Locker is starter:

110 targets x 55% = 60 rec x 16 ypr = 960 yds 4 TD

Why the discrepancy? Because I think they'll run more if their QB play is bad (keep in mind, CJ was terrible to begin the season last year so they were throwing the ball a lot). I also don't think they'll score much. I think Tennessee will be bad this year. Add to the fact that I'm not convinced he's going to be 100% healthy, and I'll gladly pass on him at WR22 for Stevie Johnson (WR24) whose groin was injured all last year, Antonio Brown (WR26) who is devalued due to last year's TD total, or (my favorite) Brandon Lloyd (WR27).

Not that I'm saying Britt will do it (health reasons) this year but this kid had 12 TDs in his last 13 games. In 2010 TEN as a team had 24 total TDs, Britt had 9 of the 19 TEN TDs in the games he played in. Include the 3 games he played in 2011 and he had 12 of the last 24 TEN TDs in games he played in. He did it in 2010 with "quality" QBs in Kerry Collins and Vince Young in a year where Chris Johnson rushed 300+ times. So if 40% of a teams TDs is really really good, I wonder what 50% is. If completely healthy he would be a huge part of this teams production.

Actually, what I saw (and I haven't personally done the research on this) was that 40% of a team's passing TDs is a LOT for a WR. Not total TDs.And I think we all know that TDs are highly variable/unpredictable. I'm not saying we should throw out his past production, but take it with a grain of salt. We're not looking at a very long career here. Just looking at his last 13 games is a bit like me saying, "look, I just flipped heads 3 times in a row. I think it is a safe bet I flip heads the next 3 times." Not many guys score 12 TD in a 16 game season. Is Britt such an elite talent that he is probable to do it on a mediocre at best offense?

 

[JPeso]

78, 1250, 8, 251 PPR, 15.7 PPR PPG

 

[rolliehouliranson]

I'm getting Britt in EVERY online mock draft using Draft Dominator, so the FBG projections must be pretty high for him.

 

[Instinctive]

Many have hit the nail on the head regarding the high risk/high reward nature of Britt. I tried to find a few comparable seasons, but there aren't many big, explosive receivers who came off a a major knee surgery. Here are some things I think:

1. He hurt it very early on in the year. That's a good thing - he had a lot of time to recover, close to a full year by the time the season is underway.

2. Wes Welker 2010: He has relatively mediocre production all season, but then a five game stretch (weeks 10-14) of great production. I'm not sure what happens in the last two games he plays (only 3 catches for minimal yardage in each - one was a close game with GB, and one they killed Buffalo so it makes sense that he might not have done much) but his postseason game against the Jets is decent, with 7/60.

3. What's that tell us? The same thing that recent ACL injury studies have told us - about a year until you're back towards your full abilities.

4. It's been about a year for Britt.

5. He's 6'3" and 215 pounds with box-out ability.

With all of that being said, I think Britt could be ready for a strong second half, but may be a bit slow out of the gate. Some have mentioned the "fluke 85 yard TD" from last season - in two and a bit of games, take that out completely, and he's still coming in just below 8 rec/100 yards/1 TD per game. Hot streak? Yeah. But indication of some talent that we saw earlier in his career coming together? I think so too.

This leads into my strategies for the guy:

A) Draft him if he falls - with all of my mocks, I either get him in the 6th/7th, or I pass. He hasn't lasted until the 8th at all, and I think the 5th is just a bit too early - usually better players I prefer available.

B) Let someone else draft him, and trade for him a few weeks into the season. If he starts hot, you've missed out. If he starts out slow like I think, you can get him cheaper than on draft day and still reap that second half.

C) Riskiest - draft at his ADP, cover yourself with a decent flex or other WR later who looks to be solid but unspectacular (I think Crabtree here), and hope for the best. This is the only way to be sure you have him.

All in all, I think that if you weather the first part of the season, Britt could be one of those guys that seems to emerge around playoff time and lead a team to a championship - all you have to do is make the playoffs, and then have those guys get hot in the right 2 or 3 weeks.

I'll put Britt at a low projection for the first few games, then as he turns it up, you get him right about playoff time at full strength.

First half: 26/380/3

Second half: 48/750/6

I took his career YPR of 17.5 and knocked it down to 15 at 3 catches a game for the first 4-6 games, then moved it up a little bit, and then put him at just below 17 for the second half (still below his career rate, but much closer to it). I think he really comes on strong then as he is fully recovered. Overall - that's a pretty good season.

 

[az_prof]

I like Britt. But he is a player with potential who is coming off a serious injury. People are drafting him like he is a proven stud; he isn't. He had a couple of great games last season but so did a lot of receivers who then went on to have a few duds. In Britt's case, he busted his knee so we really don't know what he is capable of in a full season. There is also uncertainty at QB and while he doesn't have the worst QBs in the league, they are far from the best. The team added another high potential, young WR who will be competing with Britt. Add in the knucklehead factor, and you have a player who realistically could produce anywhere from top 10 to WR40. My guess is that he is somewhere in the WR20 range this season. Even when a player makes a full recovery from ACL surgery, they rarely return to full form until the following season. Assuming Britt is as good as his supporters think, the process of recovery from that injury should keep him from being a fantasy WR1.

65/1040/7

 

[T with T]

I like Britt. But he is a player with potential who is coming off a serious injury. People are drafting him like he is a proven stud; he isn't. He had a couple of great games last season but so did a lot of receivers who then went on to have a few duds. In Britt's case, he busted his knee so we really don't know what he is capable of in a full season. There is also uncertainty at QB and while he doesn't have the worst QBs in the league, they are far from the best. The team added another high potential, young WR who will be competing with Britt. Add in the knucklehead factor, and you have a player who realistically could produce anywhere from top 10 to WR40. My guess is that he is somewhere in the WR20 range this season. Even when a player makes a full recovery from ACL surgery, they rarely return to full form until the following season. Assuming Britt is as good as his supporters think, the process of recovery from that injury should keep him from being a fantasy WR1.65/1040/7

80-1200-10 tds... Britt is a stud

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I feel it's a major mistake taking Britt in the top20 WRs off the board, also feel that taking him in the 1st 4-5 rounds of the draft is very risky.

I don't really care what the projections are, I see him missing time during the season as he is brought back slowly. There are still quality receivers on the roster, a highly touted rookie, Britt just is not a value play IMO and I wonder if dynasty owners are not pushing the redraft market on this guy.

 

[Sabertooth]

I feel it's a major mistake taking Britt in the top20 WRs off the board, also feel that taking him in the 1st 4-5 rounds of the draft is very risky.

I don't really care what the projections are, I see him missing time during the season as he is brought back slowly. There are still quality receivers on the roster, a highly touted rookie, Britt just is not a value play IMO and I wonder if dynasty owners are not pushing the redraft market on this guy.

Good posting. Mostly dynasty guys on here this time of year.

 

[Mimo]

Per Jim Wyatt, Britt had his left knee scoped recently. So besides the ACL/MCL on his right knee now he has left knee issues too.

http://t.co/i0L1Vsd9