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Kevin Kolb Era Begins - Where Does He Rank in Dynasty/Redraft? (1 Viewer)

in a 48-22 loss to saints he had 3 INTs... INTs could have killed the defense, or the suspect defense maybe got behind early (saints did that to a lot of teams, and eagles defense by most accounts had an off season), which would have made PHI one-dimensional and put pressure on kolb to throw in unfavorable circumstances...
The first interception came with Philly trailing by two scores in the third quarter. The second and third interceptions both came in the last minute of the game with things basically wrapped up already.
So you're saying Kolb came in with zero pressure on him and choked? This kid might end up being good, but crowning him the "savior of philly" like some seem to want to do is WAY premature. Wonder who the fickle bird fans will blame next for their inability to get over the hump......I guess Andy Reid is still there.
Wait, what? How do you choke if there's zero pressure? And in a week 2 regular season game no less?The guy I was responding to was merely asking if Kolb threw his INTs in real game situations or in desperation mode in a game that was already over and forced the team to be one dimensional. The answer, at least for the last two, was clearly the latter.
By choked, I mean Kolb came in with No pressure/zero expectations and he succeeded to only throw INT's. Kolb is going to have so much pressure on him it isn't funny.This kid will get some rope by the fans, but they are so fickle. All McNabb has done is lead them deep into the postseason in what, 8 or 9 or his 11 seasons? They boo'd the dude mercilessly on draft day and all he has done is go on to set all the Eagles passing records and dealt with fans with class.In a perfect world, McNabb goes to Washington and then proceeds to tear up the Eagles twice a year. I live in the philly area, and am surrounded by kool-aid drinking eagles fans that just want to blame McNabb and Reid for not winning the big one. I'm not an eagles/Kolb hater, or a McNabb/Reid lover either. It is just interesting living in this area of the country....it's like moving in with an inbred family that doesn't see anything wrong with the mixing of family genes. They all think the same, and most of it is completely biased.
 
I think Kolb will be top ten and maybe top 5 in 2 years.I see this kid as an Aaron Rodgers situation and he played very well in his short time he got the chance.I love this move for Philly.
Except for one thing, he's not as good as Aaron Rodgers. IMO, from short to deep ball range, Rodgers is the most accurate passer overall in the NFL. All-field accuracy. Kolb certainly does inherit a super situation though. Its strange how they push McNabb out the dooir after finally supplying him with more weapons after all these years of placing a heavy burden on his shoulders to "make magic" with below average cast around him sans Westy. For him to compile the numbers he has to-date under those conditions is prett astonishing.Be careful what u wish for Philly-fan.......
:bag: I'm with you kremenull. I live in the philly area and these fans are dopes. An unscouted Kolb comes in against the KC Defense and does well, and then throws 5.1 billion passes in a lost game against NO and now this poor kid is the "chosen one"? Good luck Kolb. They'll love you for about 5 games unless you pull an Aaron Rodgers, so you better buy that house in a gated community quick.
 
Kolb is top ten this year with a high ceiling.

Andy Reid's system makes QBs good, and if he thinks this guys fits his system so much that he is willing to trade McNabb, well then I will take his opinion.

 
perry147 said:
Kolb is top ten this year with a high ceiling.Andy Reid's system makes QBs good, and if he thinks this guys fits his system so much that he is willing to trade McNabb, well then I will take his opinion.
Do we know for certain that Andy Reid was fully on board with this decision to move McNabb, especially right now? There is at least some sentiment out there (from NFL Network, at least) that Reid may not have been backing this move, could have been done strictly from a business perspective. Philly is notoriously cheap towards paying top players and have let the likes of Reggie White (just probably the greatest DL to ever play the game), Eric Allen, Troy Vincent, Seth Joyner, Brian Dawkins, and now McNabb, walk because they didn't want to pay them. And they were very cheap with westbrook's contract. Frankly, I wouldn't think it'd be that great of an organization to play for if I were a player with this track record of contract (non)negotiation. If I were advising DeSean, I'd tell him to hold off on buying that home in the surrounding suburbs until they show him the $$$$, and the clock is now ticking at less than 1 year for the extension to occur. But for the time being Kolb could excel in this system, no doubt. I just wouldn't bank on it being a Top 5 eruption ala Rodgers. I am getting the feeling that he will be way overvalued in both redraft and dynasty heading into 2010. Dynasty QBs I'd take him over though would include....Matt Ryan - way overrated alreadySanchez/VY - still in run-first systemsGarrard/Eli/ - run of the mill fantasy guysCutler - too erraticAny rookie - too greenPalmer - too many health ?sCassel/Orton/Leinart/A.Smith - bumsFreeman/Stafford - not quite there, but in 2 years?....hmmmmNot-so Obvious Dynasty QBs I'd take over him inlcude....Flacco - First 2 years among the best of all-timeBig Ben - not buying the Steeler re-commit to the run rhetoricFor me, that would put Kolb at around QB 9-10 in dynasty......WOW! Did I just say that? I didn't realize that I had him this high.....rev up the hype train!... :banned:
 
Eagles passing stats over the past decade:

year yards TD INT 2009 4089 27 13 2008 3911 23 16 2007 3755 24 15 2006 4119 31 9 2005 3677 21 20 2004 3979 32 11 2003 3020 17 11 2002 3384 27 11 2001 3145 27 14 2000 3124 21 15
not bad overall - if your starting QB had numbers like this, you'd have to assume top 10, easy...probably top 5. Indeed, Philly was the #5 passing offense last year.

I say these passing stats were a function of play-calling (Reid's complete imbalance between run/pass), coupled with the playmakers in DeSean Jackson, Celek, and Westbrook (up to 2009 anyways), are what drove those stats, not the magic of McNabb.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that McNabb is a QB who was in a fantastic system to bring out great numbers. Kolb is now the guy in that system.

I think he's prime for a top 10 season, top 5 is not out of reach.

 
Eagles passing stats over the past decade:

year yards TD INT 2009 4089 27 13 2008 3911 23 16 2007 3755 24 15 2006 4119 31 9 2005 3677 21 20 2004 3979 32 11 2003 3020 17 11 2002 3384 27 11 2001 3145 27 14 2000 3124 21 15not bad overall - if your starting QB had numbers like this, you'd have to assume top 10, easy...probably top 5. Indeed, Philly was the #5 passing offense last year.I say these passing stats were a function of play-calling (Reid's complete imbalance between run/pass), coupled with the playmakers in DeSean Jackson, Celek, and Westbrook (up to 2009 anyways), are what drove those stats, not the magic of McNabb.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that McNabb is a QB who was in a fantastic system to bring out great numbers. Kolb is now the guy in that system.

I think he's prime for a top 10 season, top 5 is not out of reach.
I totally missed the 'fact' that DeSean and Celek were on those '01, '02, '04, and '06 teams. I don't remember seeing those guys back then. But I do remember seeing McNabb regularly pulling rabbits out of his hat though, in buying time with his nimble feet for WR bums like Pinkston, Freddie Mitchell, and Baskett and L.J. "definition of avg." Smith to get open.
 
steve wyche of NFL.com on the trade, with emphasis on implications for PHI and kolb...

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d8...mp;confirm=true

The Eagles decision to trade Donovan McNabb to the rival Redskins, of all teams, is a move that wouldn't have happened if Philadelphia's coaches, management, and ownership -- and some players -- didn't think Kevin Kolb was capable of taking over the reigns.

McNabb clearly isn't on the downside of his career, based on the strong numbers he's put up the past two seasons and Philadelphia's overall success. Despite that, though, the Eagles' brass has seen far more of Kolb than any of us, and they must think he's ready to be the new face of the franchise.

"This is very much like what Green Bay went through with Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers," an NFC general manager said. "They knew Favre could still play at a high level, but they felt Rodgers was ready and they were going to commit to him. So they made a tough decision."

The Eagles' decision might not have been as tough as many of us think. Economically, it was almost a slam dunk. Get something now in a trade before McNabb could walk away as a free agent after the 2010 season. But if Kolb isn't ready, the Eagles would be talking extension with McNabb instead of sending him to one of their rivals.

Mind you, Philadelphia typically doesn't make decisions that aren't well thought out or rational.

The focus is now on Kolb, a three-year veteran who was taken early in the second round in 2007 and has played rarely enough for anyone outside the organization to know if he's any good.

In fact, with his poor showing in 2008 when McNabb was benched against Baltimore and his overall performance in spot duty that season (17 of 34, 4 interceptions, 0 TDs) left far more questions than answers. With the team's signing of Michael Vick last summer, the perception of Kolb was that he didn't have the goods -- and might not ever.

He played in three games early last season -- two of them starts -- when McNabb was hurt, but he finished the season moving back and forth between being the backup and No. 3 quarterback with Vick. In his first start, the Eagles were smothered by the Saints as Kolb completed 31 of 51 passes for 391 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. Not bad, but New Orleans won 48-22.

The next week, though, Kolb found something. It was against the lowly Kansas City Chiefs, but still, he completed 24 of 34 passes for 327 yards, two touchdowns and no picks in a 34-14 win. His shine was overshadowed because it was Vick's first game back in the NFL after being out since 2007 following a conviction on dog fighting charges.

Kolb didn't take another snap the rest of the season. In all, he completed 62 of 96 passes for 741 yards, 4 TDs and 3 interceptions. McNabb, meanwhile, was 267 of 443 with 22 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. With the numbers being so tilted, and McNabb getting the Eagles to the playoffs again, how could Kolb be ready?

One coach who watched Kolb on film said he doesn't read the entire field well, yet -- he's more of a half-field reader. He also doesn't check or audible much, but that could have been the game plan. The arm strength and mobility are very good, but his pocket awareness needs some development. He also needs to process information quicker. All of his shortcomings can only be corrected by playing time, the coach said, and with Kolb's skill set, he should be able to handle things.

There are still questions.

Nobody knows that more than the Eagles, but they also know more about Kolb's strengths than anyone. The public and media are hardly as familiar with Kolb as the Eagles are, so it's easy for us to think that dealing McNabb could be a huge mistake, especially for a team that was better than most in the NFL last season. They see Kolb every day at practice, and besides looking good running plays with and against teammates with whom he's familiar, coaches gauge how teammates respond to him.

They apparently respond well. I spoke with two Eagles players at the Super Bowl who spoke highly of Kolb -- not disparagingly of McNabb -- and with everything that's been going on lately, their favorable opinions jibe with the team's approach in listening to trade offers for McNabb. Vick is also well-liked, but the Eagles' long-term plans center around Kolb, not Vick.

Kolb, like Rodgers in Green Bay, now faces new challenges after taking over for a star No. 1 QB.

Rodgers also was dealing with replacing a multiple MVP winner, Super Bowl champion and man of the people in Green Bay. Kolb is stepping in for a quarterback whose fan base was split, who has lost a Super Bowl, which, in Philly, means nothing to just get there without winning it.

The season before Rodgers stepped into the starting role in 2007, he completed 20 of 28 passes. His in-game body of work was significantly less than Kolb's. The Packers were 13-3 that season and a Favre interception away from going to the Super Bowl. Even with the Packers being a close-knit team, a change was made. They were different circumstances than what's going on in Philly, but if the Packers wanted Favre badly enough, they could have figured out a way to keep him.

They Packers were ready to move on because they thought Rodgers was ready. And ready, it turns out, he was. Rodgers became the first NFL quarterback to throw for more than 4,000 yards in each of his first two seasons as a starter, and last year led the Packers to an 11-5 record and a spot in the playoffs.

Now Philadelphia is ready to move on. Maybe not so much because they think McNabb has run his course, but because Kolb is ready to start his.

 
Eagles passing stats over the past decade:

Code:
year	yards	TD	INT 2009	4089	27	13 2008	3911	23	16 2007	3755	24	15 2006	4119	31	9 2005	3677	21	20 2004	3979	32	11 2003	3020	17	11 2002	3384	27	11 2001	3145	27	14 2000	3124	21	15
not bad overall - if your starting QB had numbers like this, you'd have to assume top 10, easy...probably top 5. Indeed, Philly was the #5 passing offense last year.I say these passing stats were a function of play-calling (Reid's complete imbalance between run/pass), coupled with the playmakers in DeSean Jackson, Celek, and Westbrook (up to 2009 anyways), are what drove those stats, not the magic of McNabb. I guess what I'm trying to say is that McNabb is a QB who was in a fantastic system to bring out great numbers. Kolb is now the guy in that system. I think he's prime for a top 10 season, top 5 is not out of reach.
Obviously if Reid continues to call for a pass heavy offense it will improve Kolb's chances at fantasy success, provided he stays healthy. Without giving this a lot of thought, how likely is that?DataDominator says that from 2002 (as far back as DD goes) to 2009, Philly was 6th in pass attempts. Last season, they were 10th, but in 2008 they were 4th. Given that this is the first time in several years that Reid will be designing an offense that involves an inexperienced starting QB, I think it is very possible that he will pass a bit less than usual to try to ease the pressure on Kolb. So I'd expect them to stay around last year's 10th mark in passing attempts in 2010, maybe even drop a couple spots below that. So to finish in the top 5-10 fantasy QBs, he'll have to have strong production per attempt and/or will have to contribute a lot in the rushing game.Look at the first 6 years of McNabb's career:1999: Let's throw out his rookie season, since he only started 6 games and played in 12. (He finished as QB37 in FBG scoring.)2000: He finished as QB5. The Eagles threw 575 times, which was 7th in the league, but they averaged just 5.9 ypa. However, McNabb ran for 629/6... his passing performance would have ranked him around QB13.2001: He finished as QB6. The Eagles only threw 522 times, which was 18th in the league. However, McNabb ran for 482/2... his passing performance would have ranked him around QB11.2002: He was having a phenomenal season until he got hurt... but in large part his fantasy dominance was due to 460/6 rushing in just 10 games... 8.2 fantasy points per game just from rushing.2003: He finished as QB13 as he had his worst rushing season, and he was never the same rushing threat again.2004: In his one full season with Owens, McNabb finished as QB3. It was easily his best year as a passer, not even close. This was in his sixth season.I assume no one is expecting Kolb to make a strong rushing contribution. McNabb didn't finish as a top 10 QB based on his passing performance until his 6th season. To be fair, the weapons Kolb has for 2010 are better than what McNabb had to work with in his first 5 seasons. But Kolb will have to be much better than McNabb was in his first 4-5 seasons in order to reach the top 10, and top 5 seems pretty unrealistic.
 
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Eagles passing stats over the past decade:

Code:
year	yards	TD	INT  2009	4089	27	13  2008	3911	23	16  2007	3755	24	15  2006	4119	31	9  2005	3677	21	20  2004	3979	32	11  2003	3020	17	11  2002	3384	27	11  2001	3145	27	14  2000	3124	21	15
not bad overall - if your starting QB had numbers like this, you'd have to assume top 10, easy...probably top 5. Indeed, Philly was the #5 passing offense last year.I say these passing stats were a function of play-calling (Reid's complete imbalance between run/pass), coupled with the playmakers in DeSean Jackson, Celek, and Westbrook (up to 2009 anyways), are what drove those stats, not the magic of McNabb. I guess what I'm trying to say is that McNabb is a QB who was in a fantastic system to bring out great numbers. Kolb is now the guy in that system. I think he's prime for a top 10 season, top 5 is not out of reach.
Obviously if Reid continues to call for a pass heavy offense it will improve Kolb's chances at fantasy success, provided he stays healthy. Without giving this a lot of thought, how likely is that?DataDominator says that from 2002 (as far back as DD goes) to 2009, Philly was 6th in pass attempts. Last season, they were 10th, but in 2008 they were 4th. Given that this is the first time in several years that Reid will be designing an offense that involves an inexperienced starting QB, I think it is very possible that he will pass a bit less than usual to try to ease the pressure on Kolb. So I'd expect them to stay around last year's 10th mark in passing attempts in 2010, maybe even drop a couple spots below that. So to finish in the top 5-10 fantasy QBs, he'll have to have strong production per attempt and/or will have to contribute a lot in the rushing game.Look at the first 6 years of McNabb's career:1999: Let's throw out his rookie season, since he only started 6 games and played in 12. (He finished as QB37 in FBG scoring.)2000: He finished as QB5. The Eagles threw 575 times, which was 7th in the league, but they averaged just 5.9 ypa. However, McNabb ran for 629/6... his passing performance would have ranked him around QB13.2001: He finished as QB6. The Eagles only threw 522 times, which was 18th in the league. However, McNabb ran for 482/2... his passing performance would have ranked him around QB11.2002: He was having a phenomenal season until he got hurt... but in large part his fantasy dominance was due to 460/6 rushing in just 10 games... 8.2 fantasy points per game just from rushing.2003: He finished as QB13 as he had his worst rushing season, and he was never the same rushing threat again.2004: In his one full season with Owens, McNabb finished as QB3. It was easily his best year as a passer, not even close. This was in his sixth season.I assume no one is expecting Kolb to make a strong rushing contribution. McNabb didn't finish as a top 10 QB based on his passing performance until his 6th season. To be fair, the weapons Kolb has for 2010 are better than what McNabb had to work with in his first 5 seasons. But Kolb will have to be much better than McNabb was in his first 4-5 seasons in order to reach the top 10, and top 5 seems pretty unrealistic.
would you agree that what Kolb lacks in rushing ability, he makes up for in better passing options? I beleive Reid will continue to throw tons - that's what he's always done, and shown absolutely no signs of anything otherwise, even when Kolb/Feeley/Garcia/misc backup QB was in the game. That's what Reid does, that's how he wins games, that's what he's comfortable with, that's how this team is structured.WRT comparing w/ McNabb's first few seasons - McNabb didn't have the luxury of sitting on the bench and learning the NFL game for a few years - he was thrown into the fire pretty quickly. I'd think it would be fair to assume Kolb could progress faster than McNabb did.BTW: I forgot to put in a floor to my predictions - I'd say the floor is somewhere around QB15, so I think he'll finish QB10, +/- 5. That's a pretty big window, but there should always be a big window for someone with lots of unknowns.
 
Just Win Baby said:
I think Kolb may turn out to be quite good, but it is far from a foregone conclusion. If I owned him and could trade him for a price commensurate with a top 10 dynasty QB, I'd do it.
Trade in MOXFFL VI dynasty league tonight: Kolb and Garcon for Tom Brady. Like I said, if I owned Kolb, I'd be moving him.
 
Just Win Baby said:
I think Kolb may turn out to be quite good, but it is far from a foregone conclusion. If I owned him and could trade him for a price commensurate with a top 10 dynasty QB, I'd do it.
Trade in MOXFFL VI dynasty league tonight: Kolb and Garcon for Tom Brady. Like I said, if I owned Kolb, I'd be moving him.
I don't like that trade for the Kolb owner but still, if 2 years ago someone said Aaron Rodgers and Sydney Rice for Tom Brady, I would have not liked that trade either and now that would be an unfair trade to get rid of Rodgers and Rice for Brady.......so you never know. Both Kolb and Garcon are in good situations and Brady is aging and could potentially be declining. He was good last year but certainly not as good as we've seen him in the past. This is a big year for Tom Brady as far as I'm concerned, it's been a few years since we've seen him really be the guy consistantly. If he doesn't show it this year, 2 years after that injury, I don't think he ever gets back to that elite 1 or 2 status (I'm not just talking about fantasy stats here).
 
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Ministry of Pain said:
salmonstud said:
Kolb's style fits Reid's offense better than McNabb did & much better than Vick. Kolb should be a top 10 fantasy QB from day 1 with some decent upside.
McNabb's style fits Reid's offense better than Kolb does & much better than Vick. McNabb should be a top10 fantasy QB from day 1 with some decent upside. See how easy that is? Now tell us some real facts so we can break it down and have something to debate with. McNabb has about 10 years, Kolb 2 games, this should be fun. Your suggesting that McNabb has been a bad fit since day 1. I might remind you that he has been to 5 NFC Championships and 1 Super Bowl, so let's not pretend like Mcnabb ran Philly into the ground.
Ok I'll add this little tidbit. McNabb was not a great fit from the beginning and I'll tell you why, Reid is a west coast offense minded coach. McNabb was NEVER a west coast QB. One huge stat for the west coast offense is to be a accurate passer, which McNabb has never been. Kolb is much much more of a better fit in this offense.
 
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Kolb's situation is eerily reminiscent of Aaron Rodgers. Hopefully he can find that type of success without Westbrook. I think Aaron Rodgers is a best case scenario here.

 
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Given that this is the first time in several years that Reid will be designing an offense that involves an inexperienced starting QB, I think it is very possible that he will pass a bit less than usual to try to ease the pressure on Kolb.
This is the kind of thing that sounds nice on paper, but likely won't translate to reality. When the game starts and Reid wants to score if he feels the best way to do that is by passing, he will pass, same as always. He had Kolb throw the ball a whopping 85 times in his first (and only) two starts of his career.And remember, they're not exactly sitting on a ton of experience at RB either.
 
Kolb's style fits Reid's offense better than McNabb did & much better than Vick. Kolb should be a top 10 fantasy QB from day 1 with some decent upside.
McNabb's style fits Reid's offense better than Kolb does & much better than Vick. McNabb should be a top10 fantasy QB from day 1 with some decent upside.

See how easy that is? Now tell us some real facts so we can break it down and have something to debate with. McNabb has about 10 years, Kolb 2 games, this should be fun.

Your suggesting that McNabb has been a bad fit since day 1. I might remind you that he has been to 5 NFC Championships and 1 Super Bowl, so let's not pretend like Mcnabb ran Philly into the ground.
Ok I'll add this little tidbit. McNabb was not a great fit from the beginning and I'll tell you why, Reid is a west coast offense minded coach. McNabb was NEVER a west coast QB. One huge stat for the west coast offense is to be a accurate passer, which McNabb has never been. Kolb is much much more of a better fit in this offense.
That is ridiculous and ignorant. Accuracy is no more important in the WCO than any other offense employed in the NFL. Probably slightly less since the WCO focuses on overloading the defense with receivers and completing short passes that are essentially an extension of the run game. The most important attribute for a WCO QB would be quick (and smart of course) decision making, second most important attribute is mobility. Joe Montana himself would probably tell you Marino would mop the floor with him in a competition involving arm strength and downfield accuracy, but he would not have been a good WCO QB.If Kolb isn't mobile, it would be a bigger liability in a WCO than McNabb's accuracy. That doesn't preclude a modified offensive scheme to suit his strengths.

 
That is ridiculous and ignorant. Accuracy is no more important in the WCO than any other offense employed in the NFL. Probably slightly less since the WCO focuses on overloading the defense with receivers and completing short passes that are essentially an extension of the run game. The most important attribute for a WCO QB would be quick (and smart of course) decision making, second most important attribute is mobility. Joe Montana himself would probably tell you Marino would mop the floor with him in a competition involving arm strength and downfield accuracy, but he would not have been a good WCO QB.If Kolb isn't mobile, it would be a bigger liability in a WCO than McNabb's accuracy. That doesn't preclude a modified offensive scheme to suit his strengths.
no cause for name calling... it seems like even in SF, they had variations in their attack... montana more methodical, young more of a quick strike offense...i took above to mean that accuracy is important because if you are moving the ball a disproportionate amount of time through the air (and certainly SF had craig and watters, who could run and catch equally well - same with westbook in PHI... but they don't have him any more), you best be completing the ball... even a bad run probably nets a few yards, and never leads to an INT (fumble a possiblity?)... off target passes can lead to WRs not being able to RAC even if they make catch, incompletes passes or even INT.mcnabb isn't the most accurate QB... he has gotten to 60% past three years in a row, but before that, only once in first EIGHT season (he did compensate with his legs, being almost as dangerous running as steve young, and probably more willing that montana ever was, and young was later in his career)... agreed mobility and quick decision making are important... after his rookie season, montana was under 60% only ONCE (and that was 59.9%) in over a decade (he missed some time in next 14 seasons)... in young's eight starting seasons (10-16 starts from '91-'98... he had COMBINED 10 starts in four seasons from '87-'90, and 3 in '99, before lawrence phillips whiffing in pass pro allowed an aeneas williams blitz to end his career), he was NEVER under 60%, and typically ranged between mid to high-60s in completion percentage...no doubt things like mobility and decisiveness helped (i've seen highlights of montana where he seems to visibly goes through 4-5 reads in a something like a few seconds... probably best i ever saw at that)... mcnabb is also pretty good at both those traits, but clearly isn't as accurate (in fairness to him, he had to deal with likes of pinkston and mitchell for many years, instead of jerry rice, john taylor & TO - when he did have TO that one year, he looked dramatically better)...point taken that mobility and quick decision making are important, but there are degrees of accuracy and inaccuracy... if a decisive, mobile guy is too inaccurate, at some point, maybe a less quick, mobile QB can more than compensate by being more accurate...
 
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