Kffl Blog: Temper enthusiasm on Mark Ingram (1 Viewer)

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

This flies in the face of what can only be described as a collective exuberance for Ingram having an ADP-like year. What say you? It has caused me to reconsider where I had Ingram's projections.

The fantasy football value of New Orleans Saints rookie running back Mark Ingram was tossed about recently on our new Big Lead Sports on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio show (catch us every Wednesday from 10 p.m. to 1 a.m. ET).



I'm in the camp that believes Ingram will not have a season that makes him any better than a No. 3 back in fantasy football circles.

Don't get me wrong. I love (almost) everything about Ingram. I even took him with the No. 1 pick in my dynasty league's rookie draft the other day.

He has the potential to be an elite NFL back. However, I don't think he is capable of doing it in New Orleans this season.

The Saints are a talented team from top to bottom. Many will put them in Super Bowl conversations again. They are also a veteran team on offense, led by quarterback Drew Brees.

Ingram, who has been impressive at the start of training camp, enters the equation without the luxury of having an offseason to work with the team in OTAs, minicamps and rookie sessions. While the most naturally gifted of the Saints' running backs, you are unlikely to see Ingram on third downs - that role will probably be divvied up between Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas, who are both less of a liability - for now, at least - in pass blocking and protecting Brees.

Furthermore, head coach Sean Payton likes to move puzzle pieces around consistently throughout games. He looks for matchups he can exploit, which results in many different offensive packages. This will lead to less snaps and touches for Ingram.

Committee approaches - at times, injury heightened - are a way of life in Payton's offensive system. Looking back to when he was the offensive coordinator of the Giants (2000-02), he loves to use multiple backs in his system. The Saints have Ingram, Thomas, Sproles and Chris Ivory; all of them could vie for carries this season.

During Payton's five seasons running the Saints, he has never had a running back carry the football more than 244 times in a season - that's an average of 15.3 carries per game. Further complicating the situation, those 244 totes came five years ago from Deuce McAllister. Since then, their top-carry back has attempted 137 (2010), 172 ('09), 129 ('08) and 147 ('07).

Not all of Ingram's situation is as negative. The Saints have averaged 16.6 rushing touchdowns from running backs per season in the past five years, including two of the last three seasons providing at least 20 rushing scores. I love Ingram in this role, as he could easily see the majority of the work near the goal line.

It is fair to say that the Saints, under Payton, haven't had a back capable of what Ingram appears to be. He has bell-cow potential, but will they be willing to adapt to Ingram's talents When the Saints Come Marching In (sorry, couldn't resist) this season?

We also have to remember: At the heart of the Big Easy, the Saints are a passing team. In the last five years, the Saints' passing offense (based upon yardage) has ranked no less than fourth in the league - they've been first two times. In rushing yards, they've been 19th or worse in the league four out of the five seasons - the best, ranked sixth, was sandwiched by three years of 28th-placed rankings.

If history holds true, as it so often does, the Saints aren't going to give Ingram much more than 170 (10.6/game) carries - if even that. Ingram isn't a Chris Johnson/Jamaal Charles speed back where he can turn a dozen carries into 70-plus rushing yards with receptions upping the balance.

Ingram will need opportunity to succeed: Lessen the opportunity, lessen the success potential in fantasy football leagues. At 170 carries, averaging 4.5 a clip, that's just 765 yards rushing. Even if you throw in a dozen touchdowns, that's barely top-24 production in fantasy football terms.

I'd be very comfortable with Ingram as a RB3 (which is what he becomes in that dynasty league I drafted him No. 1 in the rookie draft) entering the year on my fantasy football teams. The ceiling is high if the Saints allow it to be, but its much lower than many believe if the Saints play typical Payton-style football this season. Don't go into the season with him as your No. 2 fantasy back. Let his play force the issue or you could be very disappointed.



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[comfortably numb]

Disagree here

During Payton's five seasons running the Saints, he has never had a running back carry the football more than 244 times in a season - that's an average of 15.3 carries per game. Further complicating the situation, those 244 totes came five years ago from Deuce McAllister. Since then, their top-carry back has attempted 137 (2010), 172 ('09), 129 ('08) and 147 ('07).

Peyton never had a back that could carry 250-300.Deuce was that guy, but Payton's 1st year, he had the most hyped RB to come to the NFL in several decades.After year 1 Deuce got hurt, and the O went through Brees.The O will still go through Brees, but they now DO have someone who could carry the load 200-250+ IMO.While I understand Sproles is in town, but his abilities are not the same as Bush, his contract and hype is not the same.I don't see how Ingram doesn't get 200 carries.

 

[PR Sparty]

Interesting thoughts. It does bring me off the Ingram High I've been on lately while listening to Sigmund and some other love for him. The fact remains that if 19-21 RB's have been taken, I'm gonna jump all over him.

 

[mjm3773]

It's subscriber content, but in the Mark Ingram Spotlight, Jason Wood presents an excellent article debunking a couple of the KFFL claims. Wood states 1) that Sean Payton has run RBBC recently not out of philosophy, but out of necessity, between injuries and never having had a back of Ingram's talent; and 2) that the NO offense is not too pass happy to have a workhorse RB, and that the coaching staff has realized NO has had the best team results (a Super Bowl win and a NFC Championship Game loss) when the team has had a more balanced offensive attack than when they've been more pass-oriented.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Payton had Deuce run the ball almost 250 times in 06 and thats with Bush getting over 150 carries and 88 receptions. This is bunk, backwards-looking analysis. Payton has RBBC out of necessity, not preference.

 

[shader]

It's a ridiculous theory. You could hardly have picked a better situation in the entire league for Ingram than the saints.

 

[AmosMoses]

If anything, we should temper our enthusiasm for the Bonini's opinions. They are embarrassingly bad.

 

[JuSt CuZ]

One article makes you change your view on a talented running back in a high powered offense? Hmmm, not a very good decision.

Ingram should produce fine, they didnt trade up to get him to give him 150 touches.

 

[FantasyTrader]

If anything, we should temper our enthusiasm for the Bonini's opinions. They are embarrassingly bad.

I've competed against Bonini and can say from firsthand experience that he's a very good player. Discount his opinions at your own peril. That being said, this is not his finest piece of work and am in agreement with most everybody else. Bloom pretty much nailed it. The RBBC now for several years running in New Orleans wasn't by design. Ingram will get 200 carries this season practically by default.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

One article makes you change your view on a talented running back in a high powered offense? Hmmm, not a very good decision.Ingram should produce fine, they didnt trade up to get him to give him 150 touches.

I'm curious what role those who say Ingram will now be the 'bell cow' see for pierre thomas, chris ivory and darren sproles. I mean that is a lot of mouths to feed for a team that is a pass first team Especially when the 'bell cow' is a rookie, who didn't have the benefit of OTA's off season conditioning. If you were payton why would you want to pound him 25-30 times a game when you could rather easily give the rookie 15 carries a game and spell him with any one of three productive veterans with various skillsets while he develops at the position. I don't care how much we want things to be a certain way, looking at how a coach has used his players is a pretty good indication of how he will continue to do so.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Payton had Deuce run the ball almost 250 times in 06 and thats with Bush getting over 150 carries and 88 receptions. This is bunk, backwards-looking analysis. Payton has RBBC out of necessity, not preference.

What roles do you see for Ivory and thomas?

 

[Addai's Adidas]

Payton had Deuce run the ball almost 250 times in 06 and thats with Bush getting over 150 carries and 88 receptions. This is bunk, backwards-looking analysis. Payton has RBBC out of necessity, not preference.

What roles do you see for Ivory and thomas?

I see Ivory as 3rd and short running downs, Pierre as the swing pass catching RB and inside the 5 RB, with Ingram getting the rest.

 

[shnikies]

Payton had Deuce run the ball almost 250 times in 06 and thats with Bush getting over 150 carries and 88 receptions. This is bunk, backwards-looking analysis. Payton has RBBC out of necessity, not preference.

What roles do you see for Ivory and thomas?

I see Ivory as 3rd and short running downs, Pierre as the swing pass catching RB and inside the 5 RB, with Ingram getting the rest.

I have a feeling Ivory will be a healthy scratch more often than not. There's no reason on wasting a roster spot on him when he doesn't bring anything to the table that they don't have in Ingram, Thomas and Sproles.

 

[saintfool]

Payton had Deuce run the ball almost 250 times in 06 and thats with Bush getting over 150 carries and 88 receptions. This is bunk, backwards-looking analysis. Payton has RBBC out of necessity, not preference.

What roles do you see for Ivory and thomas?

I see Ivory as 3rd and short running downs, Pierre as the swing pass catching RB and inside the 5 RB, with Ingram getting the rest.

I have a feeling Ivory will be a healthy scratch more often than not. There's no reason on wasting a roster spot on him when he doesn't bring anything to the table that they don't have in Ingram, Thomas and Sproles.

Ivory's going to remain on PUP once the season starts. He won't be available until after week 6, i think. they are in no hurry either because of the depth ahead of him too. toss in the fact that joique bell as been a camp standout and showing his stuff - as his effort against SF showed - and i think there are set. ivory has his work cut out for him, if he's to remain with the team.

 

[Mr Rodgers neighborhood]

Round and round we go.

Doubters say Sean Payton has never used a workhorse back out of design.

Believers say Sean Payton has never had a true workhorse back.

I'm as high on him as anyone that I know. I think he ends up being the 8-14th back by seasons end.

 

[Jason Wood]

It's subscriber content, but in the Mark Ingram Spotlight, Jason Wood presents an excellent article debunking a couple of the KFFL claims. Wood states 1) that Sean Payton has run RBBC recently not out of philosophy, but out of necessity, between injuries and never having had a back of Ingram's talent; and 2) that the NO offense is not too pass happy to have a workhorse RB, and that the coaching staff has realized NO has had the best team results (a Super Bowl win and a NFC Championship Game loss) when the team has had a more balanced offensive attack than when they've been more pass-oriented.

Seeing as how I think this is one of THE most misanalyzed issues in "other" fantasy circles, I'm going to post the contents of my Spotlight here:

Mark Ingram is one of the running backs that can make your team a championship contender in 2011, thanks to a combination of great talent, a great situation, and misplaced skepticism which is keeping his average draft position lower than it should be.

A Prototypical NFL Workhorse

Mark Ingram was drafted in the 1st round after a stellar collegiate career. For those who don't pay a lot of attention to the college game, Ingram not only dominated, but he dominated in the SEC --- the nation's most competitive and talent-laden league. As a sophomore (2009), Ingram became the University of Alabama's first every Heisman Trophy winner, on route to a national championship. He logged 271 carries for 1,678 yards and 17 touchdowns, and was effective as a receiver, too --- with 32 receptions for 334 yards and 3 TDs. Had Ingram come out after his sophomore season, he might have been a top 10 pick, but he opted to return to Alabama where it was expected he would compete for another national championship and --- possibly --- back-to-back Heismans. A minor knee injury derailed that plan, and Ingram ended up running for only 875 yards and 13 TDs. But that didn't derail NFL scouts from viewing him as the best back in college, and the most NFL-ready tailback to hit the league in years.

Ingram is 5'9" and 215 pounds and runs with a low center of gravity, decisiveness, and power. Our own Matt Waldman, who pens the fantastic Rookie Scouting Portfolio, had this to say about Ingram:

Ingram is one of the smartest runners I've seen. He makes great reads, presses the hole, and he has the rare ability to set up defenders a step ahead of the game. These are the skills that not only made Emmitt Smith, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Edgerrin James stars, but it also gave them longevity and productivity as their physical gifts declined.

Ingram has an explosive burst and he accelerates from his cuts, which combined with his patience makes him a dangerous player. However, Ingram's grind-it-out power and terrific balance is a dimension of his game that will make him a back that an offense can ride to preserve a lead. His pass protection techniques are good enough that with additional study he'll become a back that only leaves the field when he needs a break.

A quality about Ingram that's evident on film that isn't a technique is Ingram's passion and killer instinct. I believe he's going to be the player who consistently makes the big plays that make a difference in a game. In this respect, he also reminds me of Frank Gore --- another back with great vision, power, balance, and strong acceleration.

DEBUNKING THE MISCONCEPTIONS

Misconception #1 --- Rookie RBs are a bad investment

Fantasy football owners have short memories. It's a "what have you done for me lately" mindset for most of them, and that's often an opportunity for the more astute of you who can look back at history. While the last few seasons haven't produced an immediate star rookie RB, there's plenty of precedent to suggest it's been a fluke. In fact, it wasn't that long ago that if a rookie RB struggled; it was a condemnation on their overall future. After all, the RB position is one of the most instinctive --- and that's why rookie tailbacks have historically been able to step right in and make an impact.

[*]Matt Forte finished RB4 as a rookie in 2008

[*]Steve Slaton finished RB6 as a rookie in the same year

[*]Chris Johnson wasn't a top 10 RB as a rookie, but he was RB11 (in 2008)

[*]Adrian Peterson finished as the #3 fantasy RB in 2007

[*]Marshawn Lynch was RB12 in 2007

[*]Maurice Jones-Drew was the #8 RB in 2006

[*]Joseph Addai was RB11, also in 2006

So let's recap, although the rookie RBs in 2009 and 2010 didn't produce elite stats out of the gate, the three prior seasons were terrific. 7 rookie RBs produced fantasy RB1 numbers over those three seasons, an enviable hit rate.

Misconception #2 --- Sean Payton insists on a running back-by-committee

The Saints head coach Sean Payton has become one of the most respected offensive minds in football --- with good reason. In his five seasons as head coach, the Saints have ranked 1st, 4th, 1st, 1st, and 6th in total yards, and 5th, 12th, 1st, 1st, and 11th in total scoring. With that kind of success, it's understandable that many fantasy owners would think, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it." But GREAT coaches aren't unyielding, they're always adjusting to their situations. Payton understands that the NFL adapts, and if you can't evolve from year to year, you're doomed.

How is this relevant to Ingram's fantasy success? Because too many people are fixating on the fact that Sean Payton has never had a workhorse back in New Orleans. First of all, the notion that Payton never had a workhorse in untrue. In 2006 --- his first season at the helm --- Payton had Deuce McAllister, and gave him 244 carries and 30 receptions. 274 touches is "work horse" in today's NFL, and if Mark Ingram gets 270+ touches, he's going to demolish expectations.

Now let's take a look at what Payton had to work with in 2007-2010:

2007 --- Reggie Bush led the Saints with 157 carries, and Aaron Stecker had 114 carries. Pierre Thomas was the third option with 50 carries. Both Bush and Thomas only appeared in 12 games and Stecker --- while heroic that year --- was an extremely limited talent.

2008 --- The top three rushers were Pierre Thomas (129 carries), Reggie Bush (106) and Deuce McAllister (107). McAllister was coming back from a major injury and was on his last legs, Bush missed six games (and was banged up for several others), and Thomas missed time, and only really earned reps toward the end of the season.

2009 --- The top three rushers were Mike Bell (172 carries), Pierre Thomas (147) and Reggie Bush (70). Once again, all three runners missed games, and were banged up in others. And once again neither Thomas nor Bell were ever considered elite talents, while Bush (an elite talent) hasn't given the coaches any reason to think he could handle a heavy workload now four years into his disappointing career.

2010 --- A veritable M.A.S.H. unit as unheralded rookie Chris Ivory led the team with 137 carries, but missed four games. Pierre Thomas (10 games), Reggie Bush (8 games), Ladell Betts (8 games) and Julius Jones (6 games) all missed SIGNIFICANT portions of the season.

Long story short, Sean Payton hasn't used a committee for philosophical reasons; he's done so because he HAD NO CHOICE. He hasn't had healthy backs with the talent to handle 20+ touches in a game. Mark Ingram is the tonic to what ails the Saints running game. Payton will see Ingram as the weapon he's been trying to do without for years, and no longer has to.

Misconception #3 --- The Saints are too pass happy to support a workhorse RB

This is the most absurd of the major misconceptions, yet I have heard far too many "pundits" throw it out there as a reason to discount Mark Ingram's fantasy outlook. A quick look at the Saints run/pass ratios each year tells the story:

Year Atts Rush %Pass %Run Postseason

2006 580 469 55.3% 44.7% L,ConfChamp

2007 653 384 63.0% 37.0% NoPlayoffs

2008 636 391 61.9% 38.1% NoPlayoffs

2009 543 465 53.9% 46.1% W,SuperBowl

2010 658 376 63.6% 36.4% L,WildCard

I can't emphasize this enough. In the three years where New Orleans threw the ball more than 60% of the time, the Saints either missed the playoffs completely or bowed out in the first round. In the two seasons when they had more balance, they advance deep into the playoffs once and WON THE SUPER BOWL the other instance. Do you honestly think that wasn't FRONT AND CENTER on the minds of Coach Payton and the Saints personnel department on the day they decided to trade back into the first round to draft Mark Ingram?

 

[Pnishthm]

It's a ridiculous theory. You could hardly have picked a better situation in the entire league for Ingram than the saints.

I too am on the Engram band wagon, but I can't help but think back to this exact same talk about Ryan Mathews last season and how he couldn't have landed in a better situation.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

It's a ridiculous theory. You could hardly have picked a better situation in the entire league for Ingram than the saints.

I too am on the Engram band wagon, but I can't help but think back to this exact same talk about Ryan Mathews last season and how he couldn't have landed in a better situation.

And if Mathews had stayed healthy, we'd be discussing him among in the first two rounds this year.

 

[LHUCKS]

The best argument against Ingram is historical rookie RB evidence.

He may be the exception to the rule, but it should be understood that if he delivers second round value it's because he is the exception to the rule.

Crazy to see him going two full rounds ahead of Bradshaw in PPR leagues.(happened today in the FBG FFPC)

 

[32 Counter Pass]

It's a ridiculous theory. You could hardly have picked a better situation in the entire league for Ingram than the saints.

I too am on the Engram band wagon, but I can't help but think back to this exact same talk about Ryan Mathews last season and how he couldn't have landed in a better situation.

And if Mathews had stayed healthy, we'd be discussing him among in the first two rounds this year.

And if monkeys had wings they could fly.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

After watching the first preseason game I am tempering my enthusiasm for Ingram until I see him working extensively with the first team. His ADP is sky rocketing, so I want to see more than a RBBC situation.

 

[JOBOOZOSO]

The best argument against Ingram is historical rookie RB evidence.

Did someone say "historical" data?Rookie RB Production, 2006-2010

Third Season RB Production, 2006-2010

Statistics state there is a 94% chance Ingram is Rosterable (suitable to, or capable of belonging on a fantasy sports roster, either as a starter or backup) and a 53% chance he becomes a Starter in a 16-team league.

 

[Short Corner]

It's subscriber content, but in the Mark Ingram Spotlight, Jason Wood presents an excellent article debunking a couple of the KFFL claims. Wood states 1) that Sean Payton has run RBBC recently not out of philosophy, but out of necessity, between injuries and never having had a back of Ingram's talent; and 2) that the NO offense is not too pass happy to have a workhorse RB, and that the coaching staff has realized NO has had the best team results (a Super Bowl win and a NFC Championship Game loss) when the team has had a more balanced offensive attack than when they've been more pass-oriented.

Seeing as how I think this is one of THE most misanalyzed issues in "other" fantasy circles, I'm going to post the contents of my Spotlight here:

Mark Ingram is one of the running backs that can make your team a championship contender in 2011, thanks to a combination of great talent, a great situation, and misplaced skepticism which is keeping his average draft position lower than it should be.

A Prototypical NFL Workhorse

Mark Ingram was drafted in the 1st round after a stellar collegiate career. For those who don't pay a lot of attention to the college game, Ingram not only dominated, but he dominated in the SEC --- the nation's most competitive and talent-laden league. As a sophomore (2009), Ingram became the University of Alabama's first every Heisman Trophy winner, on route to a national championship. He logged 271 carries for 1,678 yards and 17 touchdowns, and was effective as a receiver, too --- with 32 receptions for 334 yards and 3 TDs. Had Ingram come out after his sophomore season, he might have been a top 10 pick, but he opted to return to Alabama where it was expected he would compete for another national championship and --- possibly --- back-to-back Heismans. A minor knee injury derailed that plan, and Ingram ended up running for only 875 yards and 13 TDs. But that didn't derail NFL scouts from viewing him as the best back in college, and the most NFL-ready tailback to hit the league in years.

Ingram is 5'9" and 215 pounds and runs with a low center of gravity, decisiveness, and power. Our own Matt Waldman, who pens the fantastic Rookie Scouting Portfolio, had this to say about Ingram:

Ingram is one of the smartest runners I've seen. He makes great reads, presses the hole, and he has the rare ability to set up defenders a step ahead of the game. These are the skills that not only made Emmitt Smith, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Edgerrin James stars, but it also gave them longevity and productivity as their physical gifts declined.

Ingram has an explosive burst and he accelerates from his cuts, which combined with his patience makes him a dangerous player. However, Ingram's grind-it-out power and terrific balance is a dimension of his game that will make him a back that an offense can ride to preserve a lead. His pass protection techniques are good enough that with additional study he'll become a back that only leaves the field when he needs a break.

A quality about Ingram that's evident on film that isn't a technique is Ingram's passion and killer instinct. I believe he's going to be the player who consistently makes the big plays that make a difference in a game. In this respect, he also reminds me of Frank Gore --- another back with great vision, power, balance, and strong acceleration.

DEBUNKING THE MISCONCEPTIONS

Misconception #1 --- Rookie RBs are a bad investment

Fantasy football owners have short memories. It's a "what have you done for me lately" mindset for most of them, and that's often an opportunity for the more astute of you who can look back at history. While the last few seasons haven't produced an immediate star rookie RB, there's plenty of precedent to suggest it's been a fluke. In fact, it wasn't that long ago that if a rookie RB struggled; it was a condemnation on their overall future. After all, the RB position is one of the most instinctive --- and that's why rookie tailbacks have historically been able to step right in and make an impact.

[*]Matt Forte finished RB4 as a rookie in 2008

[*]Steve Slaton finished RB6 as a rookie in the same year

[*]Chris Johnson wasn't a top 10 RB as a rookie, but he was RB11 (in 2008)

[*]Adrian Peterson finished as the #3 fantasy RB in 2007

[*]Marshawn Lynch was RB12 in 2007

[*]Maurice Jones-Drew was the #8 RB in 2006

[*]Joseph Addai was RB11, also in 2006

So let's recap, although the rookie RBs in 2009 and 2010 didn't produce elite stats out of the gate, the three prior seasons were terrific. 7 rookie RBs produced fantasy RB1 numbers over those three seasons, an enviable hit rate.

Misconception #2 --- Sean Payton insists on a running back-by-committee

The Saints head coach Sean Payton has become one of the most respected offensive minds in football --- with good reason. In his five seasons as head coach, the Saints have ranked 1st, 4th, 1st, 1st, and 6th in total yards, and 5th, 12th, 1st, 1st, and 11th in total scoring. With that kind of success, it's understandable that many fantasy owners would think, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it." But GREAT coaches aren't unyielding, they're always adjusting to their situations. Payton understands that the NFL adapts, and if you can't evolve from year to year, you're doomed.

How is this relevant to Ingram's fantasy success? Because too many people are fixating on the fact that Sean Payton has never had a workhorse back in New Orleans. First of all, the notion that Payton never had a workhorse in untrue. In 2006 --- his first season at the helm --- Payton had Deuce McAllister, and gave him 244 carries and 30 receptions. 274 touches is "work horse" in today's NFL, and if Mark Ingram gets 270+ touches, he's going to demolish expectations.

Now let's take a look at what Payton had to work with in 2007-2010:

2007 --- Reggie Bush led the Saints with 157 carries, and Aaron Stecker had 114 carries. Pierre Thomas was the third option with 50 carries. Both Bush and Thomas only appeared in 12 games and Stecker --- while heroic that year --- was an extremely limited talent.

2008 --- The top three rushers were Pierre Thomas (129 carries), Reggie Bush (106) and Deuce McAllister (107). McAllister was coming back from a major injury and was on his last legs, Bush missed six games (and was banged up for several others), and Thomas missed time, and only really earned reps toward the end of the season.

2009 --- The top three rushers were Mike Bell (172 carries), Pierre Thomas (147) and Reggie Bush (70). Once again, all three runners missed games, and were banged up in others. And once again neither Thomas nor Bell were ever considered elite talents, while Bush (an elite talent) hasn't given the coaches any reason to think he could handle a heavy workload now four years into his disappointing career.

2010 --- A veritable M.A.S.H. unit as unheralded rookie Chris Ivory led the team with 137 carries, but missed four games. Pierre Thomas (10 games), Reggie Bush (8 games), Ladell Betts (8 games) and Julius Jones (6 games) all missed SIGNIFICANT portions of the season.

Long story short, Sean Payton hasn't used a committee for philosophical reasons; he's done so because he HAD NO CHOICE. He hasn't had healthy backs with the talent to handle 20+ touches in a game. Mark Ingram is the tonic to what ails the Saints running game. Payton will see Ingram as the weapon he's been trying to do without for years, and no longer has to.

Misconception #3 --- The Saints are too pass happy to support a workhorse RB

This is the most absurd of the major misconceptions, yet I have heard far too many "pundits" throw it out there as a reason to discount Mark Ingram's fantasy outlook. A quick look at the Saints run/pass ratios each year tells the story:

Year Atts Rush %Pass %Run Postseason

2006 580 469 55.3% 44.7% L,ConfChamp

2007 653 384 63.0% 37.0% NoPlayoffs

2008 636 391 61.9% 38.1% NoPlayoffs

2009 543 465 53.9% 46.1% W,SuperBowl

2010 658 376 63.6% 36.4% L,WildCard

I can't emphasize this enough. In the three years where New Orleans threw the ball more than 60% of the time, the Saints either missed the playoffs completely or bowed out in the first round. In the two seasons when they had more balance, they advance deep into the playoffs once and WON THE SUPER BOWL the other instance. Do you honestly think that wasn't FRONT AND CENTER on the minds of Coach Payton and the Saints personnel department on the day they decided to trade back into the first round to draft Mark Ingram?

To me, the big issue is having a rookie RB, with no OTAs and a short camp, not knowing the pass protection schemes well enough to protect the franchise QB in a pass happy offense. Not that I don't like his potential, I just don't see myself taking him as high as his ADP dictates. I will be looking to trade for him after the first few weeks though.

 

[comfortably numb]

One article makes you change your view on a talented running back in a high powered offense? Hmmm, not a very good decision.Ingram should produce fine, they didnt trade up to get him to give him 150 touches.

I'm curious what role those who say Ingram will now be the 'bell cow' see for pierre thomas, chris ivory and darren sproles. I mean that is a lot of mouths to feed for a team that is a pass first team Especially when the 'bell cow' is a rookie, who didn't have the benefit of OTA's off season conditioning. If you were payton why would you want to pound him 25-30 times a game when you could rather easily give the rookie 15 carries a game and spell him with any one of three productive veterans with various skillsets while he develops at the position. I don't care how much we want things to be a certain way, looking at how a coach has used his players is a pretty good indication of how he will continue to do so.

25-30 carries a game would be 400-480 on the year.I don't think any RB gets that this year, or ever again (Larry Johnson holds the record with 416)I am not even sure he gets the 15/game you are suggesting.That would lead to 240 carries.I see him at around 216 or so 13.5/game.

 

[cobalt_27]

One article makes you change your view on a talented running back in a high powered offense? Hmmm, not a very good decision.Ingram should produce fine, they didnt trade up to get him to give him 150 touches.

I'm curious what role those who say Ingram will now be the 'bell cow' see for pierre thomas, chris ivory and darren sproles. I mean that is a lot of mouths to feed for a team that is a pass first team Especially when the 'bell cow' is a rookie, who didn't have the benefit of OTA's off season conditioning. If you were payton why would you want to pound him 25-30 times a game when you could rather easily give the rookie 15 carries a game and spell him with any one of three productive veterans with various skillsets while he develops at the position. I don't care how much we want things to be a certain way, looking at how a coach has used his players is a pretty good indication of how he will continue to do so.

25-30 carries a game would be 400-480 on the year.I don't think any RB gets that this year, or ever again (Larry Johnson holds the record with 416)I am not even sure he gets the 15/game you are suggesting.That would lead to 240 carries.I see him at around 216 or so 13.5/game.

I think we'll all look back on this thread and laugh at how silly our under-estimates of his carries were. Payton is going to lean on him. A LOT. Trust me. This isn't going to be Larry Johnson or Eddie George type of work. But, 15-carries-per-game minimum, with some games deep in the 20s. Buy now while the price for him is at its lowest.

 

[shader]

Ryan Mathews did land in a perfect situation. He just didn't take advantage of it. (so far)

 

[gianmarco]

Ryan Mathews did land in a perfect situation. He just didn't take advantage of it. (so far)

No he didn't. SD had been one of the worst running teams the previous 2 years before Mathews got there and it didn't significantly change last year. The only good thing about the situation is the # of TDs they score on the ground. Otherwise, it wasn't as good as people thought.

 

[Sabertooth]

It's a ridiculous theory. You could hardly have picked a better situation in the entire league for Ingram than the saints.

I agree with this. Payton has already stated that one big difference between his 09 Super Bowl winner and his 10 team that got bounced by the worst team to ever make the playoffs was the rushing game.

 

[Andrew Garda]

Ryan Mathews did land in a perfect situation. He just didn't take advantage of it. (so far)

No he didn't. SD had been one of the worst running teams the previous 2 years before Mathews got there and it didn't significantly change last year. The only good thing about the situation is the # of TDs they score on the ground. Otherwise, it wasn't as good as people thought.

And their offensive line has been and continues to be a huge issue. LT left, got behind a good oline and BAM suddenly he could play again.

 

[comfortably numb]

One article makes you change your view on a talented running back in a high powered offense? Hmmm, not a very good decision.Ingram should produce fine, they didnt trade up to get him to give him 150 touches.

I'm curious what role those who say Ingram will now be the 'bell cow' see for pierre thomas, chris ivory and darren sproles. I mean that is a lot of mouths to feed for a team that is a pass first team Especially when the 'bell cow' is a rookie, who didn't have the benefit of OTA's off season conditioning. If you were payton why would you want to pound him 25-30 times a game when you could rather easily give the rookie 15 carries a game and spell him with any one of three productive veterans with various skillsets while he develops at the position. I don't care how much we want things to be a certain way, looking at how a coach has used his players is a pretty good indication of how he will continue to do so.

25-30 carries a game would be 400-480 on the year.I don't think any RB gets that this year, or ever again (Larry Johnson holds the record with 416)I am not even sure he gets the 15/game you are suggesting.That would lead to 240 carries.I see him at around 216 or so 13.5/game.

I think we'll all look back on this thread and laugh at how silly our under-estimates of his carries were. Payton is going to lean on him. A LOT. Trust me. This isn't going to be Larry Johnson or Eddie George type of work. But, 15-carries-per-game minimum, with some games deep in the 20s. Buy now while the price for him is at its lowest.

Initially I thought the same thing, but 15/game is at 240 (AP in his rookie season had 244), the numbers you are throwing out seem to indicate you think he could near 300 for a rookie, with limited training camp, with a rookie who will play more than 12 games for the 1st time in his career, with a rookie who I presume NO will need come week 18, 19 maybe week 20 of the NFL season?I just think it would not be smart, or in fact needed.When Peterson got his 244 as a rookie, TJax was the QB, and Bobby Wade was the leading WR on that team.They NEEDED AP to run the ball.The Saints have one of the best QB's in the league, good WR's, an athletic TE with promise, and other RB's who can contribute.I just don't think they will feel the need to give this guy 250+ carries as a rookie.

 

[AmosMoses]

If anything, we should temper our enthusiasm for the Bonini's opinions. They are embarrassingly bad.

I've competed against Bonini and can say from firsthand experience that he's a very good player. Discount his opinions at your own peril. That being said, this is not his finest piece of work and am in agreement with most everybody else. Bloom pretty much nailed it. The RBBC now for several years running in New Orleans wasn't by design. Ingram will get 200 carries this season practically by default.

It wouldn't be peril. It would be success. Go ahead and list a few against the grain columns either of them have written that have turned out to be correct, if you can.

 

[Tanner9919]

Round and round we go. Doubters say Sean Payton has never used a workhorse back out of design.Believers say Sean Payton has never had a true workhorse back.I'm as high on him as anyone that I know. I think he ends up being the 8-14th back by seasons end.

Believers are not seeing the big picture.in 2001 PAyton was OC of the Giants, a year in which Tiki had 166 carries to Ron Dayne's 180.in the first 8 weeks of 2002, before Payton's demotion from OC, workhorse RB Tiki Barber had just 1 game of 20+ carries..during the final 8 weeks of that season ( Payton was demoted after Giants started 3-4), Barber had six 20+ carry games...Coincidence? I don't think so, just my opinion. coaches are ,as they say, creatures of habit..there is no way Payton gets away from RBBC just because he has a highly touted rookie RB..that said, I agree with FBG's prediction ...decent but not great production from Ingram , solid numbers, probably a lesser Fred Jackson type of stat line..you're not going to see Clinton Portis-like rookie numbers.that's simply not going to happen.this is still a pass-first team..Those who draft Ingram as a bell cow RB in the mold of ADP/Mendenhall, Foster, Rice are going to be disappointed..those who draft him as a solid #3 RB, a bye week filler or schedule matchup dominator, will reap the rewards..

 

[comfortably numb]

Round and round we go. Doubters say Sean Payton has never used a workhorse back out of design.Believers say Sean Payton has never had a true workhorse back.I'm as high on him as anyone that I know. I think he ends up being the 8-14th back by seasons end.

Believers are not seeing the big picture.in 2001 PAyton was OC of the Giants, a year in which Tiki had 166 carries to Ron Dayne's 180.in the first 8 weeks of 2002, before Payton's demotion from OC, workhorse RB Tiki Barber had just 1 game of 20+ carries..during the final 8 weeks of that season ( Payton was demoted after Giants started 3-4), Barber had six 20+ carry games...Coincidence? I don't think so, just my opinion. coaches are ,as they say, creatures of habit..there is no way Payton gets away from RBBC just because he has a highly touted rookie RB..that said, I agree with FBG's prediction ...decent but not great production from Ingram , solid numbers, probably a lesser Fred Jackson type of stat line..you're not going to see Clinton Portis-like rookie numbers.that's simply not going to happen.this is still a pass-first team..Those who draft Ingram as a bell cow RB in the mold of ADP/Mendenhall, Foster, Rice are going to be disappointed..those who draft him as a solid #3 RB, a bye week filler or schedule matchup dominator, will reap the rewards..

I do agree with your points, but I would place Ingram right in between these 2.

Those who draft Ingram as a bell cow RB in the mold of ADP/Mendenhall, Foster, Rice are going to be disappointed..those who draft him as a solid #3 RB, a bye week filler or schedule matchup dominator, will reap the rewards..

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Round and round we go. Doubters say Sean Payton has never used a workhorse back out of design.Believers say Sean Payton has never had a true workhorse back.I'm as high on him as anyone that I know. I think he ends up being the 8-14th back by seasons end.

Believers are not seeing the big picture.in 2001 PAyton was OC of the Giants, a year in which Tiki had 166 carries to Ron Dayne's 180.in the first 8 weeks of 2002, before Payton's demotion from OC, workhorse RB Tiki Barber had just 1 game of 20+ carries..during the final 8 weeks of that season ( Payton was demoted after Giants started 3-4), Barber had six 20+ carry games...Coincidence? I don't think so, just my opinion. coaches are ,as they say, creatures of habit..there is no way Payton gets away from RBBC just because he has a highly touted rookie RB..that said, I agree with FBG's prediction ...decent but not great production from Ingram , solid numbers, probably a lesser Fred Jackson type of stat line..you're not going to see Clinton Portis-like rookie numbers.that's simply not going to happen.this is still a pass-first team..Those who draft Ingram as a bell cow RB in the mold of ADP/Mendenhall, Foster, Rice are going to be disappointed..those who draft him as a solid #3 RB, a bye week filler or schedule matchup dominator, will reap the rewards..

We're going to ignore tons of evidence that the Saints love Ingram + raving accounts from observers because of the way Payton used Tiki Barber 10 years ago?

 

[nysportsfan]

Fully on board with Ingram, top talent immediately.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

My enthusiasm about Ingram is being driven by his ADP. I'm still bullish but that could change by draft time.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Round and round we go. Doubters say Sean Payton has never used a workhorse back out of design.Believers say Sean Payton has never had a true workhorse back.I'm as high on him as anyone that I know. I think he ends up being the 8-14th back by seasons end.

Believers are not seeing the big picture.in 2001 PAyton was OC of the Giants, a year in which Tiki had 166 carries to Ron Dayne's 180.in the first 8 weeks of 2002, before Payton's demotion from OC, workhorse RB Tiki Barber had just 1 game of 20+ carries..during the final 8 weeks of that season ( Payton was demoted after Giants started 3-4), Barber had six 20+ carry games...Coincidence? I don't think so, just my opinion. coaches are ,as they say, creatures of habit..there is no way Payton gets away from RBBC just because he has a highly touted rookie RB..that said, I agree with FBG's prediction ...decent but not great production from Ingram , solid numbers, probably a lesser Fred Jackson type of stat line..you're not going to see Clinton Portis-like rookie numbers.that's simply not going to happen.this is still a pass-first team..Those who draft Ingram as a bell cow RB in the mold of ADP/Mendenhall, Foster, Rice are going to be disappointed..those who draft him as a solid #3 RB, a bye week filler or schedule matchup dominator, will reap the rewards..

We're going to ignore tons of evidence that the Saints love Ingram + raving accounts from observers because of the way Payton used Tiki Barber 10 years ago?

Exactly. I think a lot of people in this thread are underestimating two extremely important factors for Ingram. The Saints were 28th in the league last year with 95 rushing yards a game. Much like Julio Jones to Atlanta, Sean Payton believes with every fiber in his body that a dominant (or even competent) running game was their missing link last year. I just don't see how Ingram isn't given every possible opportunity to succeed now.

 

[LHUCKS]

My enthusiasm about Ingram is being driven by his ADP. I'm still bullish but that could change by draft time.

He just went at 2.11 in a 12 team PPR draft...two full rounds ahead of guys like Ahmad Bradshaw.He better get those 250 carries everybody in here keeps promising.I have a lack of enthusiasm precisely because of his ADP.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

My enthusiasm about Ingram is being driven by his ADP. I'm still bullish but that could change by draft time.

He just went at 2.11 in a 12 team PPR draft...two full rounds ahead of guys like Ahmad Bradshaw.He better get those 250 carries everybody in here keeps promising.I have a lack of enthusiasm precisely because of his ADP.

Last year I reached for Jahvid Best ahead of Arian Foster.

 

[TheFanatic]

If you are sitting with the second pick in a rookie draft, forward this pile of drivel over to the guy with the first right away...

 

[FavreCo]

If you are sitting with the second pick in a rookie draft, forward this pile of drivel over to the guy with the first right away...

Good one.

 

[Doug B]

Three points non-locals keep bringing up:

1) Chris Ivory -- receovering from Lis Franc surgery, opens the season on PUP. Can only be a factor in 2011 in the event of injury to players ahead of him. Won't take carries away from Ingram.

2) Pierre Thomas -- local message-board scuttlebutt (no link) is that his ankle STILL isn't right. Fans who have attended the Saints open TC practices have reported that Thomas, while present, is sitting out a lot of drills. IMHO, over the course of the season, won't take significant carries away from Ingram.

3) No OTAs / Ingram doesn't know the pass-blocking -- Ingram was given a playbook on April 29th during the one-day lockout injunction. Ingram also attended the Brees-led OTAs held at Tulane in the spring. He's got about as much mental work put in as is possible for a 2011 rookie.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

Ingram could be good and maybe I'll take him as an RB2. But when I see all but a few FBGs ranking him ten, twenty, thirty spots ahead of backs who are locks for 270+ touches I don't see value.

 

[eoMMan]

Yeah, this was discussed in the Ingram thread. The Saints never really had an all around elite back like Ingram and have not really ran the ball much last year. They came out and said that they plan on running the ball more this year.

I see something like 1,100 rushing yds, 250 rec. yards, and 8 total td's as the floor if he's healthy and starts all 16 games.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Three points non-locals keep bringing up:

1) Chris Ivory -- receovering from Lis Franc surgery, opens the season on PUP. Can only be a factor in 2011 in the event of injury to players ahead of him. Won't take carries away from Ingram.

2) Pierre Thomas -- local message-board scuttlebutt (no link) is that his ankle STILL isn't right. Fans who have attended the Saints open TC practices have reported that Thomas, while present, is sitting out a lot of drills. IMHO, over the course of the season, won't take significant carries away from Ingram.

3) No OTAs / Ingram doesn't know the pass-blocking -- Ingram was given a playbook on April 29th during the one-day lockout injunction. Ingram also attended the Brees-led OTAs held at Tulane in the spring. He's got about as much mental work put in as is possible for a 2011 rookie.

Whoa. As an extremely selfish person I request that you delete your post now that I've read it. Maybe Ingram will still be a value in the late 2nd round.

 

[Touchdown There]

It's a ridiculous theory. You could hardly have picked a better situation in the entire league for Ingram than the saints.

I too am on the Engram band wagon, but I can't help but think back to this exact same talk about Ryan Mathews last season and how he couldn't have landed in a better situation.

And if Mathews had stayed healthy, we'd be discussing him among in the first two rounds this year.

And if monkeys had wings they could fly.

Not every animal with wings can fly. Bloom's point is that you used a really poor example.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Just another example why I've whittled down my fantasy football reading to this place and this place alone.

Oh, and if frogs had wings they wouldn't bump their hind ends so hard when they jump.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Ingram could be good and maybe I'll take him as an RB2. But when I see all but a few FBGs ranking him ten, twenty, thirty spots ahead of backs who are locks for 270+ touches I don't see value.

If anybody's cheatsheet has Ingram 20 to 30 spots ahead of backs that you view as a lock for 270+ touches this year then your projections are a Only 16 RB's had 270+ touches last year.

 

[rocketsauce]

I'm still very high on Ingram, but Pierre Thomas entered back into the equation (and moved up my cheatsheets) a bit with his first series' work in the Saints preseason opener. I know its just one preseason game, but he very much looked like the primary back. I was starting to write him off for Ingram, and now I'm thinking it is gonna be a little more coexistence than just an Ingram dominated run game. I got Pierre in the 9th round of a Mock Draft last night, and that just seems like incredible value for a situation none of us truly know anything about yet. Much like Ryan Williams/Beanie Wells, I would feel a lot better about the rookie side of the equation if they would've got some/more work with the first team instead of the 2nd team (and even later for Williams.)

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

Ingram could be good and maybe I'll take him as an RB2. But when I see all but a few FBGs ranking him ten, twenty, thirty spots ahead of backs who are locks for 270+ touches I don't see value.

If anybody's cheatsheet has Ingram 20 to 30 spots ahead of backs that you view as a lock for 270+ touches this year then your projections are a Only 16 RB's had 270+ touches last year.

Do you think Ingram should be 30+ spots above Blount, for instance?I respect FBG projections (obv.) but they get a little frothy over rookie RBs every year.