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Footballguy
This flies in the face of what can only be described as a collective exuberance for Ingram having an ADP-like year. What say you? It has caused me to reconsider where I had Ingram's projections.
The fantasy football value of New Orleans Saints rookie running back Mark Ingram was tossed about recently on our new Big Lead Sports on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio show (catch us every Wednesday from 10 p.m. to 1 a.m. ET).
I'm in the camp that believes Ingram will not have a season that makes him any better than a No. 3 back in fantasy football circles.
Don't get me wrong. I love (almost) everything about Ingram. I even took him with the No. 1 pick in my dynasty league's rookie draft the other day.
He has the potential to be an elite NFL back. However, I don't think he is capable of doing it in New Orleans this season.
The Saints are a talented team from top to bottom. Many will put them in Super Bowl conversations again. They are also a veteran team on offense, led by quarterback Drew Brees.
Ingram, who has been impressive at the start of training camp, enters the equation without the luxury of having an offseason to work with the team in OTAs, minicamps and rookie sessions. While the most naturally gifted of the Saints' running backs, you are unlikely to see Ingram on third downs - that role will probably be divvied up between Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas, who are both less of a liability - for now, at least - in pass blocking and protecting Brees.
Furthermore, head coach Sean Payton likes to move puzzle pieces around consistently throughout games. He looks for matchups he can exploit, which results in many different offensive packages. This will lead to less snaps and touches for Ingram.
Committee approaches - at times, injury heightened - are a way of life in Payton's offensive system. Looking back to when he was the offensive coordinator of the Giants (2000-02), he loves to use multiple backs in his system. The Saints have Ingram, Thomas, Sproles and Chris Ivory; all of them could vie for carries this season.
During Payton's five seasons running the Saints, he has never had a running back carry the football more than 244 times in a season - that's an average of 15.3 carries per game. Further complicating the situation, those 244 totes came five years ago from Deuce McAllister. Since then, their top-carry back has attempted 137 (2010), 172 ('09), 129 ('08) and 147 ('07).
Not all of Ingram's situation is as negative. The Saints have averaged 16.6 rushing touchdowns from running backs per season in the past five years, including two of the last three seasons providing at least 20 rushing scores. I love Ingram in this role, as he could easily see the majority of the work near the goal line.
It is fair to say that the Saints, under Payton, haven't had a back capable of what Ingram appears to be. He has bell-cow potential, but will they be willing to adapt to Ingram's talents When the Saints Come Marching In (sorry, couldn't resist) this season?
We also have to remember: At the heart of the Big Easy, the Saints are a passing team. In the last five years, the Saints' passing offense (based upon yardage) has ranked no less than fourth in the league - they've been first two times. In rushing yards, they've been 19th or worse in the league four out of the five seasons - the best, ranked sixth, was sandwiched by three years of 28th-placed rankings.
If history holds true, as it so often does, the Saints aren't going to give Ingram much more than 170 (10.6/game) carries - if even that. Ingram isn't a Chris Johnson/Jamaal Charles speed back where he can turn a dozen carries into 70-plus rushing yards with receptions upping the balance.
Ingram will need opportunity to succeed: Lessen the opportunity, lessen the success potential in fantasy football leagues. At 170 carries, averaging 4.5 a clip, that's just 765 yards rushing. Even if you throw in a dozen touchdowns, that's barely top-24 production in fantasy football terms.
I'd be very comfortable with Ingram as a RB3 (which is what he becomes in that dynasty league I drafted him No. 1 in the rookie draft) entering the year on my fantasy football teams. The ceiling is high if the Saints allow it to be, but its much lower than many believe if the Saints play typical Payton-style football this season. Don't go into the season with him as your No. 2 fantasy back. Let his play force the issue or you could be very disappointed.
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