Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
One throw we know for sure he can't make is the one where he has a WR, let's just call him Heaven Duster, 20 yards behind the nearest D-back.DrJ said:
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Kyle Orton - named the starting QB (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Cecil Lammey
- Start date
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
This should help put the ridiculous mancrush into perspective here...when you're behind Michael Vick, Joey Harrington, David Carr and Alex Smith on any passer list, you've got problems.
Yards/Attempt for all QBs from 2005-2008 with at least 500 attempts (roughly a full season) - keep scrolling, you'll find Orton eventually:
Yards/Attempt for all QBs from 2005-2008 with at least 500 attempts (roughly a full season) - keep scrolling, you'll find Orton eventually:
Code:
Tony Romo 8.08Matt Schaub 7.9Peyton Manning 7.78Ben Roethlisberger 7.68Tom Brady 7.67Kurt Warner 7.58Philip Rivers 7.51Trent Green 7.5Sage Rosenfels 7.49Drew Brees 7.47Jake Delhomme 7.42Jay Cutler 7.39Carson Palmer 7.34Aaron Rodgers 7.34Donovan McNabb 7.22Drew Bledsoe 7.21Chad Pennington 7.14David Garrard 7.11Matt Cassel 7.08Daunte Culpepper 7.08Damon Huard 7.05Jon Kitna 6.97Matt Hasselbeck 6.97Jeff Garcia 6.95Jake Plummer 6.94Marc Bulger 6.92Mark Brunell 6.77Brett Favre 6.76Trent Edwards 6.73Matt Leinart 6.72Derek Anderson 6.68Byron Leftwich 6.66J.P. Losman 6.59Tarvaris Jackson 6.57Kerry Collins 6.52Eli Manning 6.5Kyle Boller 6.5Brian Griese 6.49Josh McCown 6.48Gus Frerotte 6.42Vince Young 6.41Jason Campbell 6.41Aaron Brooks 6.39Steve McNair 6.36Rex Grossman 6.36Michael Vick 6.34Trent Dilfer 6.33Brad Johnson 6.26Joey Harrington 6.08Charlie Frye 6.06David Carr 5.93Alex Smith 5.84Kyle Orton 5.83Ryan Fitzpatrick 5.32
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moleculo
Footballguy
I'm fascinated by the turn of situations regarding Orton/Cutler. This season will give us amazing insight into who makes a passing O go - the QB, or everyone else.
In Denver, every starting QB in recent memory has put up a 4k season (extrapolated for 16 games for Griese), and been named to at least one pro-bowl. The Den o-line is one of the best in the league, and the recieving options are top notch. The head coach worked with Tom Brady during his rise to greatness, called the plays for a record setting offense, and is widely credited for the success of Matt Cassel.
Chicago is pretty much the opposite. There hasn't been an elite QB since Sid Luckman. A Bear QB hasn't made a pro-bowl in decades. The O-line is porous, the WR's are terrible, and the coaches have never been considered average.
If Orton thrives and Cutler stumbles, we will have to assume that the impact by supporting cast for passing production is pretty significant. If Cutler thrives and Orton stumbles, then it's the QB talent that makes everything work. (of course, they could both stink or they could both do well too...)
This is an amazing opportunity to compare talent vs situation.
In Denver, every starting QB in recent memory has put up a 4k season (extrapolated for 16 games for Griese), and been named to at least one pro-bowl. The Den o-line is one of the best in the league, and the recieving options are top notch. The head coach worked with Tom Brady during his rise to greatness, called the plays for a record setting offense, and is widely credited for the success of Matt Cassel.
Chicago is pretty much the opposite. There hasn't been an elite QB since Sid Luckman. A Bear QB hasn't made a pro-bowl in decades. The O-line is porous, the WR's are terrible, and the coaches have never been considered average.
If Orton thrives and Cutler stumbles, we will have to assume that the impact by supporting cast for passing production is pretty significant. If Cutler thrives and Orton stumbles, then it's the QB talent that makes everything work. (of course, they could both stink or they could both do well too...)
This is an amazing opportunity to compare talent vs situation.
The wildcard in the situation that destroys this analysis is that they don't have the same guy running the offense in Denver. The fact that they threw for 4K every season under Shanahan isn't really worth a lot to us now.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
What do we know about McDaniels' real value to NE? Did Romeo Crennel forget how to coach defense in Cleveland?Did Charlie Weis forget how to build an offense at Notre Dame?Did Eric Mangini forget how to coach in New York? McDaniels' 'role' was so valuable that the Pats haven't even bothered naming a new OC yet.
moleculo
Footballguy
we don't know anything really...it's all speculation, and my guess is as good as yours. I'm choosing to be a glass is half full kind of guy w/ McD. It's really my only choice, unless I want to end up bitter like so many others. I'd rather not live that way, so I have to hope that McD has an idea what he is doing.
switz
Footballguy
While I'm big on using YPC as a measure for RBs, I'm not for using YPA to measure QBs. For a QB their YPA is much more dependent on the type of passing game they run, and the WRs, than anything else. Considering Orton has played 33 games, 15 as a rookie, I'm not thinking ANY stats are really an accurate depiction of his ability.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Most people remember him as a rookie game manager and forget he was a pretty decent gun slinger at Purdue and performed very well to start the 2009 season before messing up his ankle.
obxlegends
Footballguy
Avery
Footballguy
IIRC, Purdue ran with a spread/shotgun offense for Orton with quick reads and short passes. Not what I'd call a traditional "gunslinger" throw it down the field type.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I dunno... the top 15...Tony Romo 8.08Matt Schaub 7.9Peyton Manning 7.78Ben Roethlisberger 7.68Tom Brady 7.67Kurt Warner 7.58Philip Rivers 7.51Trent Green 7.5Sage Rosenfels 7.49Drew Brees 7.47Jake Delhomme 7.42Jay Cutler 7.39Carson Palmer 7.34Aaron Rodgers 7.34Donovan McNabb 7.22...are a hell of a lot better than the bottom 15...Gus Frerotte 6.42Vince Young 6.41Jason Campbell 6.41Aaron Brooks 6.39Steve McNair 6.36Rex Grossman 6.36Michael Vick 6.34Trent Dilfer 6.33Brad Johnson 6.26Joey Harrington 6.08Charlie Frye 6.06David Carr 5.93Alex Smith 5.84Kyle Orton 5.83Ryan Fitzpatrick 5.32Seems like a good measure to me.switz said:
Courtjester
The Town Drunk
I guess my concern is, sure Denver has a great o-line, but that was a based on schemes and stunts and cut backs. NE tended to be more of a stronger power running team. I am not sure which system is going to be in effect in Denver. Denver was the lightest (in weight) in the AFC as far as o-linemen and Patriots were in the to 5-6. If you keep the old system, I think you can say Denver will again have a good running game, but if you try and get smaller guys do a big man's job, I am concerned.
switz
Footballguy
What do the top-15 have that the bottom 15 don't? Great WRs. Unless you really believe Sage Rosenfels and Jake Delhomme are far superior to Steve McNair.Notice that Grossman and Orton are both in the bottom 15, think that might have anything to do with them both playing for the Bears, and Grossman's slight edge might be the benefit of having both Berrian and Muhammad for most of the games he played, compared to the TE and converted-DB Orton had last year as his sole receiving options?
Orton couldn't take advantage of those guys when he did have them. For instance, Berrian was having a pretty respectable season in 2007 and averaged 13.4 YPC on the season. Orton comes in, and in the final 3 games with Orton he had 7 catches for 68 yards and TD. Because he is incapable of making the one throw that Berrian can catch - the deep ball. And it of course contributes to his low YPA.
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CaptainHook
Footballguy
A wr who bases most of his value on a highly variable long ball had a couple slightly down weeks. OBVIOUSLY THE QB SUCKS
the shallow, thoughtless orton bashing here is making me really reconsider this places value.
the shallow, thoughtless orton bashing here is making me really reconsider this places value.
Orton also extended his awesome streak to 18 consecutive games without even passing for 250 yards. That streak ended at 20 games, but he's got another 8 in a row now to build off of heading into this season. There's other factors besides Berrian having a couple down weeks at play here. But hey, he did win a game where he threw 15 passes for 104 yards, so he does have that whole winner thing going for him.CaptainHook said:
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CaptainHook
Footballguy
he wasnt allowed to air it out as a rookie playing with possibly the best defense in the league...how did i miss this obvious indication that he has absolutely no future in the league. thank you for your insight.
Sure seem to be an awful lot of excuses for a guy that's only looked good for a 5 game stretch in his entire career.
switz
Footballguy
Ignoring the fact that Orton hadn't played in nearly two seasons... that might impact a little bit his chemistry with this receivers, no?Or that Berrian simply wasn't targeted as much, and that the offense went ultra conservative, with only one healthy QB...Or that in those same games Orton connected with Hester for a 55 yard TD, on a deep route.DrJ said:
How do you explain that last year Orton put up 1,777 yards in his first 7.5 games prior to injury. He did that on only 244 attempts, which puts his averages yards per attempt at 7.28, within the top-15 QBs. He also threw 10 TDs to 4 INTs. He had a 61.8 completion percentage in those 7.5 games. He completed at least 16 20+ yard plays in those games as well...The fact that Orton already did this over nearly half a season indicates he's clearly capable of producing at that level... even with bad WRs.DrJ said:
CaptainHook
Footballguy
He came out of college as a project QB. And started immediately anyway. Why would I consider that season at all? If I take anything out of that season, it is purely that the coaching staff sees great potential in him. The stats are completely useless for any kind of analysis.
A few years later, he is an established QB. We see him come out of the gates blazing on a team with a terrible OL and HORRIBLE wide receivers. He suffers a pretty serious injury and is severely hampered the rest of the season. These aren't excuses, they are simply how the game of football works.
A few years later, he is an established QB. We see him come out of the gates blazing on a team with a terrible OL and HORRIBLE wide receivers. He suffers a pretty serious injury and is severely hampered the rest of the season. These aren't excuses, they are simply how the game of football works.
The same way that I explain how Rex Grossman looked like an MVP candidate for the first half of the 2006 season, and is now competing for a backup QB position. There have been plenty of examples of guys that play well for a few games in their career and are unable to sustain that. Kordell Stewart played well for entire seasons at points. Jim Miller could look like a world beater if you want to judge him based on the 3 games he had before he was suspended for the steroid thing. He threw for 422 yards and 357 yards in back to back games and had like 983 yards, 6 TD's, and 2 Int's in those 3 games. Boy he sure looked great, but in retrospect the most significant thing he did in his entire career was get slammed to the ground by Hugh Douglas.His ankle injury in the 2nd half of the season doesn't explain how he became entirely incapable of reading a defense and started throwing ridiculous interceptions and fumbling. And based on his body of work to this point it seems far more likely that the guy that was not just injured, but completely lost out there on the field of play, is a better sample of what he's capable of than the guy that was within the top 15 QB's. He was so bad that the ankle injury simply can't explain it by itself.
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CaptainHook
Footballguy
How disappointing. I was hoping you'd tell me how great he looked on national TV against the Saints and Packers, while he almost pissed both of those games away with his terrible play and turnovers.
switz
Footballguy
So... the last what 7 games playing INJURED, is a BETTER sample than the first 7.5 games played while healthy. 
You want to say the injury had nothing to do with it... you obviously have NO IDEA about QB mechanics... it's all footwork... if your ankle is really screwed up, your footwork gets screwed up too. As for turnovers, yeah he had 8 in the last 7 games, but all 8 game in 4 games, 3 of the 8 came in one game. It's not like he was throwing INTS in every game, he actually threw 0 INTs in 3 of those games. And the 3 INT game, those INTs came in garbage time after MIN had a huge lead, that happens to the best of QBs, you take risks when playing catch up.You clearly just hate Orton, and have no clue what you're talking about.
He played like garbage down the stretch. He's played like garbage at every point in his career except for 5 games, including the 1st 2 games of the season. If Kyle Orton is able to run an offense and lead them to a few points in the 2nd half of the Panthers game after Forte and the D build him a 17-3 lead they could win. Or even if he could run some time off the clock. He lead them to 4 3-n-outs on their final 5 drives of the game. That's the story of Kyle Orton for almost his entire career.As for the final games, he was playing against the Rams and Jaguars in 2 of those games, who had already given up on their seasons. It was much like the 2nd half of Grossman's 06 season. Look good against garbage teams, then throw 3 Int's against a team that cares.So... the last what 7 games playing INJURED, is a BETTER sample than the first 7.5 games played while healthy.
You want to say the injury had nothing to do with it... you obviously have NO IDEA about QB mechanics... it's all footwork... if your ankle is really screwed up, your footwork gets screwed up too. As for turnovers, yeah he had 8 in the last 7 games, but all 8 game in 4 games, 3 of the 8 came in one game. It's not like he was throwing INTS in every game, he actually threw 0 INTs in 3 of those games. And the 3 INT game, those INTs came in garbage time after MIN had a huge lead, that happens to the best of QBs, you take risks when playing catch up.
You clearly just hate Orton, and have no clue what you're talking about.
And sure, all those Minnesota Int's came in garbage time. If you want to call down 17-14 with 7:13 to go in the 3rd garbage time. And then down 24-14 early in the 4th (thanks in part to his own int) as garbage time. And in between those Int's, he did nothing but lead them to 3-n-outs. His drives to end the game were: Int, 3 out, 3 out, Int, Int, 3 out. Again, the story of Kyle Orton. That game was winnable, especially after the D gave the ball to Orton at the 4 yard line with 10:00 to go in the 3rd and Forte brought it to 17-14. And Orton couldn't so much as lead them to a 1st down after that point, and was a big part of the reason the score got out of hand. He did everything in his power to give away those Saints and Packers games as well. I get that he was injured and some dropoff in performance could be expected. He went from a guy who was making good reads to a guy that looked beyond hurt - he looked completely lost on the field at times in the most important games of the season.
It really amuses me to see people blame Cutler for losses last season because he was leading the team down the field again and again as his sieve defense let everyone though, while calling Kyle "3 out" Orton a winner.
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