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Ladarius Green's value (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter RT37
- Start date
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
Eli is a great maker of TE's... would love to see him in NY. Green Bay doesn't feature the TE significantly.Milkman said:
packersfan
Footballguy
Thompson doesn't use free agency. Roughly a 0% chance he would sign Green despite the glaring TE need and enormous talent upgrade Green would provide.
Shutout
Footballguy
Agree in general but also willing to acknowledge that Brady might be an outlier and could very well play the type of game he is playing at a high level for 3-4 more years.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
If Gates retires - which I find increasingly more likely with PED bust and nagging injuries (as well as age), He is in a good spot in SD. Rivers is pretty underrated.
packersfan
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
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Tau837
Footballguy
Rivers should play out his contract, which means 4 more years. I doubt Gates will retire. He is 11 TDs from having more than any TE in history. More importantly, he is still playing well. I expect the Chargers will resign Gates and let Green walk.
Milkman
Footballguy
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
Looks like Floyd is out for a while - maybe forever. If Green could just get healthy, he would likely be in line for a ton of snaps, regardless of Gates. When Stevie Johnson, Dontrelle Inman, and some practice squad guy are your top 3 WR, you would think that they will find a way to get their 6'6" 4.5 guy into the starting 11. Gotta hope he is healthy after the bye.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
What's the scoop with Green's contract? Is he unrestricted?
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Nice...was assuming Chargers could tender him.
fredsavage
Footballguy
As usual destination will matter a lot. I do not hold it against him like many that he got buried behind Gates. Could be a Martellus Bennett sort of situation
cstu
Footballguy
While Gates is returning, the Chargers are set to lose another tight end. Ladarius Green is expected to agree to a deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers, a source told Schefter.
Otis
Footballguy
discountdoublecheck
Footballguy
Could not ask for a better landing spot.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Anything can happen, but I can assure everyone that Ladarius was given every chance and every opportunity to become a big time TE in San Diego and he never seized the opportunity. I likely won't own him in any league next year, as I'm sure he'll go early as the hype will be overwhelming.
Tau837
Footballguy
Bruce Hammond
Footballguy
It was a 2 year deal that he signed. Do you think he'll play both years? For dynasty purposes, a top 12 TE for 2 years who then retires > 5 years of second rate production from someone like a Jordan Cameron or Kyle Rudolph. But if it's just one and done it's not so clear.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Take your answer with a grain of salt. There are some folks posting in this thread that think pro athletes in their mid-30's probably won't see a slow down in production..... because, you know, they were productive last year and why should this year be any different?!
Milkman
Footballguy
I can't see how you can say this. Almost everytime Gates was out and Green started he produced high end TE1 numbers. All while being criminally underutilized. I don't think he ever was targeted more than 7 times in a game but he's an elite redzone option who ran wide open all the time in that SD offense but was always the 4th or 5th read.
Tau837
Footballguy
I don't have the data handy, but I saw a stat somewhere that Gates played ~70% of Chargers offensive snaps in 2014 and ~45% in 2015. Now, Gates missed 5 games in 2015, so that is part of it. But I remember last offseason when Gates was quoted as saying he would player fewer snaps, focused on third downs, red zone, etc. So that could have also been part of it.
That said, his season last season was surprisingly good. He averaged more receptions per game than he had since 2005 (but small margins) and more yards per game than he had since 2011. He had 85 targets in 11 games, which projects to 124 targets (!); he hasn't averaged that many targets per game since 2005.
The key is TDs. I assume he wants the all-time record for TE TDs, and he needs 8 more to pass Gonzalez. I suspect that makes it more likely he plays both years, since I doubt he will get 8 this year. (And if he does, he will presumably play well enough to come back.)
I do not assume he will be top 12 in 2016 or 2017 (if he plays). But he certainly could be, and that would probably make him a decent value due to his age.
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
Agree with you here somewhat. In games where Gates didn't play last year, Green finished in 1.5 TE PPR:
TE7 (Wk1), TE17 (Wk2), TE6 (Wk4), TE4 (WK7)
Personally I don't hold that he couldn't beat out a HOF TE against him. SD simply didn't utilize him as a 2nd TE weapon.Haven't looked at the guaranteed monies yet, but can't believe Fleener somehow scored around $36 mil yet Green got $20 mil.
Should be interesting to see where he goes in 2016 redrafts.
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cstu
Footballguy
Looks like a one year $6 million deal with a series of team options.
Fleener got $18 million guaranteed so his is essentially a 3 year/$21 million deal.
Tau837
Footballguy
I'm surprised so many people seem surprised at the fact that the Chargers kept Gates and not Green.
1. Gates is a first ballot HOFer and a fan favorite. The team rightfully wants him to retire a Charger. It helps that he was surprisingly effective the last two years, and I'm sure Rivers wanted him to stay. So I always felt the team would keep him unless he chose to retire.
2. If Gates is on the roster, it limits the value of the second TE in the passing game. This is for two reasons. Gates is (or at least has been to date) very effective in the passing game, and he is very bad at blocking. So it stands to reason that whoever the other TEs are on the roster are going to be asked to block much more than run routes. This is exactly what happened to Green in his time with the Chargers. That limits the value that the team will invest in its second and third TEs.
3. Green showed impressive ability at times. Yet he could not earn a bigger role despite playing for 2 head coaches and 3 offensive coordinators. The Chargers organization is not one of the better organizations in football, and I have plenty of issues with their decisions. But you have to assign a portion of the blame to the player. It's not like the coaches didn't want to win games. If they felt using Green more/differently would have helped to do that, they would have used him more/differently. Apparently, he didn't do enough in practice or in games to force them to do that.
4. Green has a potential concussion problem. He had 2 concussions within 2 weeks last year and at one point had had three concussions in 9 months.
The Chargers GM said this morning on the radio it was his goal to re-sign both Gates and Green. So it seems likely that it came down to the Steelers offering more than the Chargers, which doesn't say much about the market for Green given the contract he got. As posted above, it is essentially a one year prove it deal.
1. Gates is a first ballot HOFer and a fan favorite. The team rightfully wants him to retire a Charger. It helps that he was surprisingly effective the last two years, and I'm sure Rivers wanted him to stay. So I always felt the team would keep him unless he chose to retire.
2. If Gates is on the roster, it limits the value of the second TE in the passing game. This is for two reasons. Gates is (or at least has been to date) very effective in the passing game, and he is very bad at blocking. So it stands to reason that whoever the other TEs are on the roster are going to be asked to block much more than run routes. This is exactly what happened to Green in his time with the Chargers. That limits the value that the team will invest in its second and third TEs.
3. Green showed impressive ability at times. Yet he could not earn a bigger role despite playing for 2 head coaches and 3 offensive coordinators. The Chargers organization is not one of the better organizations in football, and I have plenty of issues with their decisions. But you have to assign a portion of the blame to the player. It's not like the coaches didn't want to win games. If they felt using Green more/differently would have helped to do that, they would have used him more/differently. Apparently, he didn't do enough in practice or in games to force them to do that.
4. Green has a potential concussion problem. He had 2 concussions within 2 weeks last year and at one point had had three concussions in 9 months.
The Chargers GM said this morning on the radio it was his goal to re-sign both Gates and Green. So it seems likely that it came down to the Steelers offering more than the Chargers, which doesn't say much about the market for Green given the contract he got. As posted above, it is essentially a one year prove it deal.
zamboni
Footballguy
As discussed in the FA thread, I think people are expecting too much from Green in Pitt. Sure he's in a top three offense, but he's not going to see a ton of targets as the likely 5th option in the passing game after Brown, Bell, Bryant, and Wheaton. I would be much more optimistic if Green had landed in, say, New Orleans.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
I can agree in this being his first year with Pitt. After this season though, his ceiling climbs.
Miller got 64 catches a season over the past 4 seasons. On 88 targets. That's good for top 8 territory on receptions last year.
matttyl
Footballguy
Yeah you could - New Orleans. Fleener (a lesser talented TE) could actually outproduce Green this year.
zamboni
Footballguy
Heath was indeed steady, but his best years were when he was effectively the second option in the passing game. With an emerging Bryant and Wheaton and the expected return of Bell, that's a lot of mouths to feed. I can certainly see 60 catches, which would be solid, but I don't see huge upside here unless Brown got hurt.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
matttyl
Footballguy
Oh they certainly are, but he'll be there 2-3 more years - and the TE landscape pretty much gets totally turned over in that time. It's very hard to look "long term" in the NFL these days. At different times over the past 2 years Jordan Reed, Tyler Eifert, Kelce, Ertz,, and even Ebron could all have been had relatively cheap - and most see them all as top 10 dynasty TEs now. And that's not even mentioning last year's top 10 guys found on waivers - Barnidge and Ben Watson, and possibly D Walker and Richard Rodgers.
Add to that Green and Fleener could have each been purchased cheaply before yesterday, and many are expecting top 10 seasons from both this coming year.
Shutout
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
1st round rookie pick..too much/not enough to ask for?
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
matttyl
Footballguy
Sounds about right. Better bet than any rookie TE this year. I bought Fleener with the 17 pick yesterday before his signing, but after it would have paid something in the 12-14 range.
Milkman
Footballguy
Everytime he got targets he produced. Lots of games where he didn't get targets. Who's fault is that if he's running wide open and Rivers doesn't throw it to him?I'm surprised so many people seem surprised at the fact that the Chargers kept Gates and not Green.
1. Gates is a first ballot HOFer and a fan favorite. The team rightfully wants him to retire a Charger. It helps that he was surprisingly effective the last two years, and I'm sure Rivers wanted him to stay. So I always felt the team would keep him unless he chose to retire.
2. If Gates is on the roster, it limits the value of the second TE in the passing game. This is for two reasons. Gates is (or at least has been to date) very effective in the passing game, and he is very bad at blocking. So it stands to reason that whoever the other TEs are on the roster are going to be asked to block much more than run routes. This is exactly what happened to Green in his time with the Chargers. That limits the value that the team will invest in its second and third TEs.
3. Green showed impressive ability at times. Yet he could not earn a bigger role despite playing for 2 head coaches and 3 offensive coordinators. The Chargers organization is not one of the better organizations in football, and I have plenty of issues with their decisions. But you have to assign a portion of the blame to the player. It's not like the coaches didn't want to win games. If they felt using Green more/differently would have helped to do that, they would have used him more/differently. Apparently, he didn't do enough in practice or in games to force them to do that.
4. Green has a potential concussion problem. He had 2 concussions within 2 weeks last year and at one point had had three concussions in 9 months.
The Chargers GM said this morning on the radio it was his goal to re-sign both Gates and Green. So it seems likely that it came down to the Steelers offering more than the Chargers, which doesn't say much about the market for Green given the contract he got. As posted above, it is essentially a one year prove it deal.
Milkman
Footballguy
I agree on the catches and yards but he has a great opportunity in the red zone where he's shown flashes of being one of the best TE in the league.
Tau837
Footballguy
How do you define "got targets?"
In 2013-14, he had 5 games in which he had 5 or more targets. In those games, he had 17/330/2 receiving on 27 targets. That is what got everyone excited about his potential.
Then in 2015, he had 8 games with 5 or more targets. In those games, he had 29/343/3 on 51 targets. He did not maintain his performance as his targets scaled up. And it doesn't even factor in his really low output games (8/86/1 on 12 targets in 5 other games). People may disagree on whether or not Gates outperformed Green last season or they were about the same... but Gates was 35 years old. Green had a great opportunity to force the coaching staff to take notice and increase his role, with Gates suspended for the first four games. He didn't do it. He was solid, not great.
If he was as impressive as you suggest, the market for signing him would have been much stronger. You think other teams who assessed him didn't watch tape? If he was running wide open frequently, teams would have found him more impressive and paid accordingly to sign him.
Tau837
Footballguy
What flashes? Over the past 3 seasons, he had 8/83/3 on 15 red zone targets. These are the 12 TEs with more TDs on fewer red zone targets across that span: ASJ, Allen, Harbor, Ebron, Toilolo, Dickson, Paulsen, Gillmore, Hoomanawanui, Zach Miller, Dion Sims, and Ryan Griffin. Not exactly a who's who of TEs.Milkman said:
Meanwhile, in the same offense, Gates had 23/174/17 on 46 red zone targets and Phillips, the #3 TE, had 4/22/2 on 4 red zone targets. Green doesn't look particularly impressive in comparison.
Warhogs
Footballguy
If you find a TE needy team you might get a very late round 1 pick for him. You may have to settle for round 2 if you are looking to move him. I like his upside and he is just entering his prime but it's pretty tough to determine how good he can be. It's not like Heath Miller put up elite TE numbers in that offense. I sort of see him as a low end TE1 or a good TE2 for fantasy football. I personally wouldn't trade a round 1 pick for him.Andy Dufresne said:
Milkman
Footballguy
I'm not sure why he didn't command more besides maybe the concussions. Look at Green's numbers when he "started" in place of Gates. That's where he really shined. When Gates played it pushed Green down to the 4th or 5th option. When he started though he was averaging something like .75 TD'S a game or something crazy like that. I can't count how many times I seen him wide open and Rivers forced it into tight coverage somewhere else.Just Win Baby said:
Admittedly it's a small sample though. Like 8 games or something.
ZWK
Footballguy
Green's receiving efficiency numbers have been really good. Since he entered the league in 2012, his 8.91 yards per target is 3rd among TEs (behind only Gronk and Kelce; min 100 targets) and his 1.85 yards per route run is 6th (behind Gronk, Kelce, Reed, Graham, and Olsen; min 300 routes run; data only through wk7 of 2015 because PFF went private).
Over the past 3 years there have only been 4 games that he played without Gates, all in 2015. He had 18/219/3 on 27 targets, which is on pace for 72/876/12 on 108 targets. Small sample size, obviously, but good numbers.
Over the past 3 years there have only been 4 games that he played without Gates, all in 2015. He had 18/219/3 on 27 targets, which is on pace for 72/876/12 on 108 targets. Small sample size, obviously, but good numbers.
steelcityman
Footballguy
Green wont out produce miller. Jesse james will get PT. but steelers O is ben brown bell bryant TE and wheaton. In that order. 50 for 500 and 5.
discountdoublecheck
Footballguy
The "too many mouths to feed" argument is garbage. You want piece of this explosive offense. Remember J. Thomas catching a TD in almost every game for DEN?That was with D. Thomas and Welker putting up big numbers as well. Green has huge potential in Pitt.
zamboni
Footballguy
Julius was very TD heavy that year (with not a ton of catches), which boosted his fantasy points in a big way. If you think Green is going to catch as many TDs, then draft accordingly. But TDs are very variable, so I would rather go for a target-heavy guy.
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