Lamont Jordan looking very undervalued (1 Viewer)

[tribecalledjeff]

Let's not forget that the guy is 1 year removed from a #6 RB finish in ppr leagues. With D. Rhodes missing the first 4 games, Jordan gets all of the carries against this schedule (Clayton ranks 2nd easiest over the first 3 games):

Detroit

@ Denver

Cleveland

@ Miami

By the time Rhodes gets back, Jordan could very well have cemented the job. Even if he doesn't, he presents tremendous value for those first 4 weeks, at which point he may have some more trade value.

FBG's projects him for 165-644, 23-156, 6 TD, 139 points (ppr). RB #36, or boderline RB3 in a 12 teamer.

For those first 4 weeks, he's the man. I could see him getting around half of those numbers in those 4 games alone, which would be an average of about 14 ppg. If he does, and holds the job, that's a huge upside from a guy ranked so low right now. Even if he doesn't hold the job, he presents tremendous value in terms of ppg for the first 4 weeks, at which point you can do with him what you like.

My advice: draft this guy in round 7, ride his good weeks 1-3, then package him in a trade for an upgrade if there are rumblings that Rhodes will still split carries.

This is one guy who I think is ranked/being drafted at a spot where he really can't be worse than where you draft him (barring injury), but could be a whole lot better.

 

[bostonfred]

I agree, but I believe he will creep up the draft boad as we get closer to training camps, so this may be moot. Still, I wouldn't mind taking a flyer on him, especially if I could trade him right away.

 

[Routilla]

I could see this working. Load up on RBs early then trade Jordan after week 3 to a team with WR depth and poor RBs. It certainly seems logical.

 

[Captain Hook]

Curious what makes you guys think that Jordan will play well enough to make your suggested play worthwhile?

 

[duaneok66]

tribe, you're still suggesting he's going to get around 80 yards . . . a game . . . behind that OL, good luck . . .

plus, his current ADP does not reflect Rhodes' suspension. the ADP will rise dramatically before Labor Day (around when most drafts are held) , and everyone will jump on the bandwagon . . .

I will watch it pass by . . .

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Curious what makes you guys think that Jordan will play well enough to make your suggested play worthwhile?

He doesn't have to light the world on fire. If he gets 15-20 carries a game, a couple catches, and a TD or 2, that's good. He's a talented back who has done it before, and he's got an easy schedule. Sure, he might not. But I think more signs point to him performing fine than not. Put it this way - if D. Rhodes hadn't been signed, would you still rank Jordan #36 overall?

 

[zamboni]

He's certainly got more value now, but he was not that good (from a real life NFL standpoint) under Norv Turner, who seems to make a stud out of virtually all RBs under his tutelage. Yes, he had those 70 receptions to help his fantasy stats, but I can't see him getting better with a worse supporting cast than he had a few years ago.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

tribe, you're still suggesting he's going to get around 80 yards . . . a game . . . behind that OL, good luck . . .

plus, his current ADP does not reflect Rhodes' suspension. the ADP will rise dramatically before Labor Day (around when most drafts are held) , and everyone will jump on the bandwagon . . .

I will watch it pass by . . .

you don't think this is possible vs. detroit and cleveland? he had 20-128, TD, 2-13 last year vs. cleveland. he was fully healthy for 5 games last year. 2 of them he was horrible - but they were vs. SD and Baltimore, which are teams you'd bench him vs. anyways. 1 was great (cleveland), and 2 were mediocre. he had 12-71 vs. SF and 23-60 vs. denver, with 3 and 2 catches, respectively. if you had started him in the 3 games vs. non-stud defenses, he averaged right about 14 ppg.

 

[Captain Hook]

Curious what makes you guys think that Jordan will play well enough to make your suggested play worthwhile?

He doesn't have to light the world on fire. If he gets 15-20 carries a game, a couple catches, and a TD or 2, that's good. He's a talented back who has done it before, and he's got an easy schedule. Sure, he might not. But I think more signs point to him performing fine than not. Put it this way - if D. Rhodes hadn't been signed, would you still rank Jordan #36 overall?

Absolutely NOT - coming off a terrible season?, behind a terrible O line?, playing with McCown? No Way

 

[duaneok66]

Curious what makes you guys think that Jordan will play well enough to make your suggested play worthwhile?

He doesn't have to light the world on fire. If he gets 15-20 carries a game, a couple catches, and a TD or 2, that's good. He's a talented back who has done it before, and he's got an easy schedule. Sure, he might not. But I think more signs point to him performing fine than not. Put it this way - if D. Rhodes hadn't been signed, would you still rank Jordan #36 overall?

Absolutely NOT - coming off a terrible season?, behind a terrible O line?, playing with McCown? No Way

also, the beat writer (heard on the Audible) thinks that he is not fully recovered from his injury . . .

 

[SSOG]

Funny, and here I was more concerned about Michael Bush than Dom Rhodes.

 

[FFdork]

One reason to be at least slightly optimistic is the way Jordan was completely forgotten in the passing game in '06. While it remains to be seen how he will be utilized in this new regime, he really has nowhere to go but up.

IMO there are quite a few great bargains on RB based on current ADP, and he's definitely one of the guys on my radar. As others have pointed out, his ADP may rise. As of now, with the way I tend to draft, he would likely be my 4th (or even 5th) RB taken, so that's not bad upside for your RB4.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Funny, and here I was more concerned about Michael Bush than Dom Rhodes.

shouldn't you be posting somewhere about ron dayne?

 

[duaneok66]

Funny, and here I was more concerned about Michael Bush than Dom Rhodes.

the beat writer also said that Bush (recovering from an injury) won't really be a factor until 2008 . . .

 

[Keith Lewis]

If you want a slow, plodding running back who has the most pathetic offensive line of the decade then Lamont Jordan is your man.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Curious what makes you guys think that Jordan will play well enough to make your suggested play worthwhile?

He doesn't have to light the world on fire. If he gets 15-20 carries a game, a couple catches, and a TD or 2, that's good. He's a talented back who has done it before, and he's got an easy schedule. Sure, he might not. But I think more signs point to him performing fine than not. Put it this way - if D. Rhodes hadn't been signed, would you still rank Jordan #36 overall?

Absolutely NOT - coming off a terrible season?, behind a terrible O line?, playing with McCown? No Way

also, the beat writer (heard on the Audible) thinks that he is not fully recovered from his injury . . .

now this i did not know. oak could be at their 4th stringer week 1 if he's hurt. bush probably won't be ready, rhodes is a druggie, and now lamont?what was his injury? is it something that typically takes this long to recover from? i thought it was a knee of some kind, but i don't know what.

maybe fargas is the value play for weeks 1-4? at that point, it's not even worth it.

 

[Keith Lewis]

Curious what makes you guys think that Jordan will play well enough to make your suggested play worthwhile?

He doesn't have to light the world on fire. If he gets 15-20 carries a game, a couple catches, and a TD or 2, that's good. He's a talented back who has done it before, and he's got an easy schedule. Sure, he might not. But I think more signs point to him performing fine than not. Put it this way - if D. Rhodes hadn't been signed, would you still rank Jordan #36 overall?

Absolutely NOT - coming off a terrible season?, behind a terrible O line?, playing with McCown? No Way

also, the beat writer (heard on the Audible) thinks that he is not fully recovered from his injury . . .

now this i did not know.

Might be wise to get facts before spouting off about how a player is going to light the world on fire, just a tip man.

 

[duaneok66]

he had knee and hip injuries . . .

 

[tribecalledjeff]

If you want a slow, plodding running back who has the most pathetic offensive line of the decade then Lamont Jordan is your man.

Again, for a three game stretch last year when he was healthy and not playing great run defenses, he was servicable. I can't imagine that the Raiders are WORSE than last year. I'm curious how many of these people that are telling me he's useless had him ranked in the top 10 going into last year. Nobody here is saying he's a stud. I'm saying he can be an RB2 for the first 4 weeks, and possibly more if he performs well. He's currently projected for about 800 total yards, which puts him as the #36 ranked back according to FBG. Unless he gets hurt, this is his absolute FLOOR. There are not many guys that you can draft in a position where if they hit their floor, they still provide what you drafted them to do. He averaged 3.8 ypc last year. I'm certainly not saying that's good, but his QB now is better and I doubt the line can really be worse. But let's just say for arguments sake that he averages worse - I'll even go 3.5 ypc. If he is the starting back, which he is for weeks 1-4 and POSSIBLY more, he's going to get at least 250 carries and 30 catches. That's 875 yards rushing, and figure 210 receiving (7 ypc is reasonable). He has to score a few touchdowns if he is the guy, give him 6 and you have yourself an RB2. And that's being very conservative as far as # of rushes and ypc.

 

[joffer]

at RB40, he's definitely undervalued right now.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Curious what makes you guys think that Jordan will play well enough to make your suggested play worthwhile?

He doesn't have to light the world on fire. If he gets 15-20 carries a game, a couple catches, and a TD or 2, that's good. He's a talented back who has done it before, and he's got an easy schedule. Sure, he might not. But I think more signs point to him performing fine than not. Put it this way - if D. Rhodes hadn't been signed, would you still rank Jordan #36 overall?

Absolutely NOT - coming off a terrible season?, behind a terrible O line?, playing with McCown? No Way

also, the beat writer (heard on the Audible) thinks that he is not fully recovered from his injury . . .

now this i did not know.

Might be wise to get facts before spouting off about how a player is going to light the world on fire, just a tip man.

if i hadn't started this thread, i'd have never known this. it's not like it was in the blogger or any major news outlet. do you understand how this works? i love how when some people disagree with you around here, they don't contribute anything useful to the conversation, but just make snide comments about how dumb the OP is. in the FFA that's fine. in here, aren't we all trying to accomplish the same thing - discuss players, get other viewpoints, learn from each other?

i don't care if you don't agree - i actually hope that you don't if you explain why with facts and sound reasoning. Then i can see the other side, and we can learn from the discussion. but things like "here i was worried about michael bush" and this comment above contribute nothing except for making people not want to post.

or maybe i'll just ignore 5 digiters.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

at RB40, he's definitely undervalued right now.

exactly. he's being taken right around chris henry, tatum bell, deshaun foster, and the like. he's being taken well behind fred taylor and chester taylor, guys who are virtual locks to be the secondary back on their team. how can this NOT be value? (unless he's hurt... i'd like to hear more about this)

 

[massraider]

he is probably undervalued at RB40, but i would guess not by much.

Rhodes going down is only part of opportunity. The other part is getting the ball. And Jordan is in the doghouse, he avoided getting cut by taking a pay cut. He was, IMO, terribly out of shape last year, and spent too much time dancing in the backfield. Some of that was obviously bad blocking, but sometimes there was a hole, and he didn't hit it.

Considering that discipline and decisiveness are important attributes in the ZBS the Raiders are installing, I have very little optimism about this guy doing any damage.

With Fargas, Bush, and even Justin Griffith, there's plenty of candidates for a RBBC. Fargas looked better last year than he ever has. Which isn't saying much, but he was at least willing to slam it up in there.

 

[MSULions]

I wouldn't touch jordan with a twenty foot pole. he's never shown that he's anything but a back up....and Oakland's oline will continue to be atrocious. this is a TEAM that scored twelve offensive touchdowns last year. i don't see any reason why that will change much.

 

[zamboni]

Curious what makes you guys think that Jordan will play well enough to make your suggested play worthwhile?

He doesn't have to light the world on fire. If he gets 15-20 carries a game, a couple catches, and a TD or 2, that's good. He's a talented back who has done it before, and he's got an easy schedule. Sure, he might not. But I think more signs point to him performing fine than not. Put it this way - if D. Rhodes hadn't been signed, would you still rank Jordan #36 overall?

Absolutely NOT - coming off a terrible season?, behind a terrible O line?, playing with McCown? No Way

also, the beat writer (heard on the Audible) thinks that he is not fully recovered from his injury . . .

now this i did not know. oak could be at their 4th stringer week 1 if he's hurt. bush probably won't be ready, rhodes is a druggie, and now lamont?what was his injury? is it something that typically takes this long to recover from? i thought it was a knee of some kind, but i don't know what.

IIRC, he tore his MCL. Not the more serious ACL, but still a serious injury. Good job by duane to point the injury out - Jordan's injury is sometimes overlooked in this whole conversation, yet given that he doesn't seem to be fully recovered, it's highly relevant.

 

[chocolate bomber]

If you want a slow, plodding running back who has the most pathetic offensive line of the decade then Lamont Jordan is your man.

Again, for a three game stretch last year when he was healthy and not playing great run defenses, he was servicable.

This is my new sig, man. That's a lot of qualifyers for a guy that was merely servicable.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

If you want a slow, plodding running back who has the most pathetic offensive line of the decade then Lamont Jordan is your man.

Again, for a three game stretch last year when he was healthy and not playing great run defenses, he was servicable.

This is my new sig, man. That's a lot of qualifyers for a guy that was merely servicable.

fair enough.but i'll take servicable from a guy going off the board at RB40 all day long.

 

[turfman]

Actually, I think Rhodes is going to be the value pick here. Right now he is RB 44 and that number is going to drop with the suspension. Oakland will be waiting for him to get back after Jordan sucks it up the first 4 weeks. Add on that since Jordan became a featured back he hasn't finished a season and has a whopping 3.8 ypc(I know, it's Oakland). Rhodes is the guy I will be targeting in the 14th round or so.

 

[H.K.]

this is a TEAM that scored twelve offensive touchdowns last year.

Ugh. Now and they have a new HC with the following resume:NCAA:• 2001-2006: USC assistant coach (offensive coordinator in 2005-06; also recruiting coordinator and receivers coach)• 2000: Colorado State offensive line coach• 1997-98: Fresno State graduate assistantNFL:• 2000: Jaguars defensive quality control coach On top of that, they lost Moss (the one guy defenses needed to worry about) and have serious questions at the QB spot (Josh McCown, JaMarcus Russell & Andrew Walter are sketchy at best). On the flip side, he could get a good workload early on, but what defense isn't going to run blitz these guys all day long and try to make the Raiders beat them in the air? This does not appear to be the road to fantasy riches for Jordan.

 

[duaneok66]

If you want a slow, plodding running back who has the most pathetic offensive line of the decade then Lamont Jordan is your man.

Again, for a three game stretch last year when he was healthy and not playing great run defenses, he was servicable.

This is my new sig, man. That's a lot of qualifyers for a guy that was merely servicable.

fair enough.but i'll take servicable from a guy going off the board at RB40 all day long.

his ADP will rise with the new information on Rhodes . . .

 

[a_troll00]

this is a TEAM that scored twelve offensive touchdowns last year.

Ugh. Now and they have a new HC with the following resume:NCAA:• 2001-2006: USC assistant coach (offensive coordinator in 2005-06; also recruiting coordinator and receivers coach)• 2000: Colorado State offensive line coach• 1997-98: Fresno State graduate assistantNFL:• 2000: Jaguars defensive quality control coach

He's definitely not the most qualified guy for the job. The funny thing is, he was the only one who would say yes to the job. Nobody wants to coach for Al Davis anymore.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Dude looked sluggish BEFORE the knee injury last season.

The Oakland O-line is still considered "abominable".

All signs point to Jordan doing next to nothing, fantasy wise in 2007.

I owned him in 1 dynasty league last year.

I will never own him again.

 

[mozzy84]

too bad there's not alot of byes the first four weeks. You are more than likely going to have two better rb options the first four weeks of the season.

 

[SSOG]

Funny, and here I was more concerned about Michael Bush than Dom Rhodes.

shouldn't you be posting somewhere about ron dayne?

I can multitask.

at RB40, he's definitely undervalued right now.

exactly. he's being taken right around chris henry, tatum bell, deshaun foster, and the like. he's being taken well behind fred taylor and chester taylor, guys who are virtual locks to be the secondary back on their team. how can this NOT be value? (unless he's hurt... i'd like to hear more about this)

Fred Taylor's not a virtual lock to be the secondary back on his team, at least in terms of workload. He's a virtual lock to be secondary in terms of production... but then again, he was secondary in production last year, too, and he still wound up outscoring Jordan almost three to one.