LaMont Jordan - reception totals in 06? (1 Viewer)

[Fullback Fro]

FBG lastet projections has LaMont catching 65 balls this year. Last year after the pre-season games we saw that the Raiders were going to utilize his pass catching ability and they did. He caught 70 balls.

But I think this number comes way down this year. Pretty much everytime Kerry Collins dropped back last year he was forced to go underneath to Jordan and he leaned on him a lot to get them into 2nd and 5 or 3rd and 2 situation. With Kerry being gone and a new coaching regime I just don't see the stars being aligned for him this year for that to happen.

Anyone have and knowledge of Art Shell's offense strategy. Does he pass to RB often? I would project Jordan to catch more like 4o balls this year and in 1pt per reception that is a significant drop off.

 

[nygiants56]

FBG lastet projections has LaMont catching 65 balls this year.  Last year after the pre-season games we saw that the Raiders were going to utilize his pass catching ability and they did.  He caught 70 balls. 

But I think this number comes way down this year.  Pretty much everytime Kerry Collins dropped back last year he was forced to go underneath to Jordan and he leaned on him a lot to get them into 2nd and 5 or 3rd and 2 situation.  With Kerry being gone and a new coaching regime I just don't see the stars being aligned for him this year for that to happen. 

Anyone have and knowledge of Art Shell's offense strategy. Does he pass to RB often?  I would project Jordan to catch more like 4o balls this year and in 1pt per reception that is a significant drop off.

I agree, he'll see a significant dropoff in receptions,IMO..Norv Turner is a master at utilizing rb's ...he's gone to the Niners, and a new coaching staff takes over, along with Aaron Brooks...

I don't see the new coaching staff running the offense thru the RB position nearly as much as Norv Turner did last year.

I'd say 35-40 catches, tops, leaving Jordan as a fatter version of Errict Wrett ( i.e, a slow, sub-4 yard-per-carry rb with excellent hands and not much more)

 

[Family Matters]

I think he's lower but still around 50. Let me share my theory.

I think that Collins was a big reason Jordan got so may balls. When QB's are less mobile they tend to dump off if they feel their WR's are not getting open. Moss played injured some last year and puts more pressure on the QB. Therefore Jordan may have gotten a few more balls. When you consider that Collins isn't very mobile he's not buying time so he's dumping.

Now that Brooks is there I expect to see 3 things happens:

1. Brooks will buy time by scrambling.

2. Moss will have more time to get open deep. He has historically been a deep threat more so than a short to midfield threat. With a scrambling QB he will get more time and looks down field. He should be in for a nice year if Brooks makes good decisions. That's not a given.

3. Jordan will see a few less dumps because of the scrambling QB.

So I look for Jordan to get fewer balls thrown to him but I do see Moss getting the difference.

 

[Big Score]

Art Shell's historical use of RB's in the passing game.

*Did not do 1988, as that was only a partial year for Shell as HC*

1989

4 RB's caught passes, with Marcus Allen catching the most.

20, 19, 18 & 9 receptions - total of 66 receptions - 640 yds - 2 TD's

1990

4 RB's caught passes, with Marcus Allen catching the most.

15, 6, 4 & 1 receptions - total of 26 receptions - 294 yds - 4 TD's

1991

4 RB's caught passes, with Roger Craig catching the most.

17, 15, 15 & 6 receptions - total of 53 receptions - 459 yds - 1 TD

1992

5 RB's caught passes, with Marcus Allen/Steve Smith catching the most.

28, 28, 14, 4 & 2 receptions - total of 76 receptions - 632 yds - 3 TD's

1993

6 RB's caught passes, with Steve Smith catching the most.

18, 15, 11, 10, 4 & 2 receptions - total of 60 receptions - 530 yds - 0 TD's

1994

5 RB's caught passes, with Harvey Williams catching the most.

47, 26, 8, 2 & 2 receptions - total of 85 receptions - 731 yds - 4 TD's

 

[Fullback Fro]

Art Shell's historical use of RB's in the passing game.

*Did not do 1988, as that was only a partial year for Shell as HC*

1989

4 RB's caught passes, with Marcus Allen catching the most.

20, 19, 18 & 9 receptions - total of 66 receptions - 640 yds - 2 TD's

1990

4 RB's caught passes, with Marcus Allen catching the most.

15, 6, 4 & 1 receptions - total of 26 receptions - 294 yds - 4 TD's

1991

4 RB's caught passes, with Roger Craig catching the most.

17, 15, 15 & 6 receptions - total of 53 receptions - 459 yds - 1 TD

1992

5 RB's caught passes, with Marcus Allen/Steve Smith catching the most.

28, 28, 14, 4 & 2 receptions - total of 76 receptions - 632 yds - 3 TD's

1993

6 RB's caught passes, with Steve Smith catching the most.

18, 15, 11, 10, 4 & 2 receptions - total of 60 receptions - 530 yds - 0 TD's

1990

5 RB's caught passes, with Harvey Williams catching the most.

47, 26, 8, 2 & 2 receptions - total of 85 receptions - 731 yds - 4 TD's

I think this shows that he is not big into throwing to the RB. Only once did his guy catch over 40 with the most being in the teens.

 

[zamboni]

Art Shell's historical use of RB's in the passing game.

*Did not do 1988, as that was only a partial year for Shell as HC*

1989

4 RB's caught passes, with Marcus Allen catching the most.

20, 19, 18 & 9 receptions - total of 66 receptions - 640 yds - 2 TD's

1990

4 RB's caught passes, with Marcus Allen catching the most.

15, 6, 4 & 1 receptions - total of 26 receptions - 294 yds - 4 TD's

1991

4 RB's caught passes, with Roger Craig catching the most.

17, 15, 15 & 6 receptions - total of 53 receptions - 459 yds - 1 TD

1992

5 RB's caught passes, with Marcus Allen/Steve Smith catching the most.

28, 28, 14, 4 & 2 receptions - total of 76 receptions - 632 yds - 3 TD's

1993

6 RB's caught passes, with Steve Smith catching the most.

18, 15, 11, 10, 4 & 2 receptions - total of 60 receptions - 530 yds - 0 TD's

1990

5 RB's caught passes, with Harvey Williams catching the most.

47, 26, 8, 2 & 2 receptions - total of 85 receptions - 731 yds - 4 TD's

Nice find, although given that that was over 10 years ago, it's probably tough to make an assessment.We'll have to see if Shell will change along with the game since he last was on the sidelines.

 

[Big Score]

Art Shell's historical use of RB's in the passing game.

*Did not do 1988, as that was only a partial year for Shell as HC*

1989

4 RB's caught passes, with Marcus Allen catching the most.

20, 19, 18 & 9 receptions - total of 66 receptions - 640 yds - 2 TD's

1990

4 RB's caught passes, with Marcus Allen catching the most.

15, 6, 4 & 1 receptions - total of 26 receptions - 294 yds - 4 TD's

1991

4 RB's caught passes, with Roger Craig catching the most.

17, 15, 15 & 6 receptions - total of 53 receptions - 459 yds - 1 TD

1992

5 RB's caught passes, with Marcus Allen/Steve Smith catching the most.

28, 28, 14, 4 & 2 receptions - total of 76 receptions - 632 yds - 3 TD's

1993

6 RB's caught passes, with Steve Smith catching the most.

18, 15, 11, 10, 4 & 2 receptions - total of 60 receptions - 530 yds - 0 TD's

1990

5 RB's caught passes, with Harvey Williams catching the most.

47, 26, 8, 2 & 2 receptions - total of 85 receptions - 731 yds - 4 TD's

Nice find, although given that that was over 10 years ago, it's probably tough to make an assessment.We'll have to see if Shell will change along with the game since he last was on the sidelines.

I agree with you zamboni. I'm not sure how much, if any, relevance should be attached to Shell's offensive direction for the 2006 Oakland Raiders RB's, from what he did over a decade ago.

Just put it up there more as "for what it's worth" piece, than anything else.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

I think it would be very tough for Lamont to repeat with 70- recpetions, no matter who is the QB, but I think Brooks will decrease it even more.

1. Brooks scrambles - if there is nothing open, Brooks has the ability to use his feet and rush for a few yards instead of dumping it off.

2. Brooks locks on to a target - I do not think Brooks will go through his progressions as quickly as Collins did. Brooks will either throw a risky ball, or will scramble into open space to allow his WRs to get open.

3. Past History with Brooks - In 2003 Deuce caught 69 balls, so it is still possible that Lamont will catch as many as he did last year, but looking at the feature RBs in NO when Brooks was the starter and they caught an average of 53 balls (ignoring last year with Deuce hurt and Brooks benched).

4. Moss was injured last year - Last year Moss was injured for awhile. If Moss is healthy, you will see more balls heading to him. If Moss was healthy last year, you would have seen more balls thrown to Moss, instead of having to check down to Lamont.

With all that being said, I still project Lamont with ~50 receptions.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Jordan was also among the league leaders in drops last year, so this isnt a case where he's so excellent as a receiver that he has to be a large part of the passing attack. I agree with those that said his receptions had a lot to do with Collins lack of mobility and the Raiders also lacked a surehanded possession receiver last year. At least one of those things will change this year with the addition of Brooks.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

I think he fits into the 41-50 range as a very safe prediction with a chance at going a little higher.

I think it would be almost impossible for Jordan to catch under 35 balls this season.

 

[brobe4]

40-50 seems about right

 

[Domination]

Jordan is te perfect back for this team. An offensive line that is still coming together, and a tough, big back. he has very good hands, and I believe that Art is going to make him into the next Marcus Allen.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Jordan is te perfect back for this team. An offensive line that is still coming together, and a tough, big back. he has very good hands, and I believe that Art is going to make him into the next Marcus Allen.

Can a RB who leads the league in drops have "very" good hands?

 

[kabal152]

It's difficult to judge a guy based on what he did 10 years ago. If history tells us anything I kinda read this

Art Shell really liked Harvey Williams because he could catch the ball. Williams had a nuthing season for the 1993 Cheifs.

1993 Cheifs

49 touches (42 carries 7 receptions)

190 total yards

0 scores

He joined the Raiders in 1994. From a fantasy perspective nobody was expecting big things from the Raiders version of Merton Hanks. Nobody except Art Shell. Shell specifically brought him in because he wanted a multi dimensional do everything back. Williams kind of blew up in 94. I remember this because I had Harvey on my money league team.

1994 Season w/ Oakland

300+ touches (47 catches 282 carries)

1300+ total yards (300+ receiving 900+ rushing)

8 tds for good measure

Oh yeah Tom Rathman also caught 26 balls

Not great numbers for Harvey but real solid. Especially for a player most guys got late late in the draft or moreover, picked up off waivers.

Shell wasn't around for the 1995 season. However, Harvey's 95 season was even better (I had him that year too) carried me to my first of back to back titles. Ahhh the glory days..

So if I look at history, I think this might bode well for Mr. Jordan.

Just Thinkin' Out Loud

Kabal152

 

[massraider]

FBG lastet projections has LaMont catching 65 balls this year.  Last year after the pre-season games we saw that the Raiders were going to utilize his pass catching ability and they did.  He caught 70 balls.  

But I think this number comes way down this year.  Pretty much everytime Kerry Collins dropped back last year he was forced to go underneath to Jordan and he leaned on him a lot to get them into 2nd and 5 or 3rd and 2 situation.   With Kerry being gone and a new coaching regime I just don't see the stars being aligned for him this year for that to happen. 

Anyone have and knowledge of Art Shell's offense strategy. Does he pass to RB often?  I would project Jordan to catch more like 4o balls this year and in 1pt per reception that is a significant drop off.

I agree, he'll see a significant dropoff in receptions,IMO..Norv Turner is a master at utilizing rb's ...he's gone to the Niners, and a new coaching staff takes over, along with Aaron Brooks...

I don't see the new coaching staff running the offense thru the RB position nearly as much as Norv Turner did last year.

I'd say 35-40 catches, tops, leaving Jordan as a fatter version of Errict Wrett ( i.e, a slow, sub-4 yard-per-carry rb with excellent hands and not much more)

The Raiders rushing totals the last two years were the worst in team history. It's true, look it up.Here's one Raider fan that is glad the 'master', Norv Turner, is gone across the bay.

I think Lamont's receptions will decrease, I said in the Jordan thread that 50 sounds about right. I don't think it'll drop down much more, however. Brooks does scramble, and while that may take away receptions, it can also prolong drives. Longer driver, more plays, more opportunities. With Collins, the punter might have been out there.

I do think it's possible that Lamont could easily repeat those reception numbers. Not likely, but possible. Because:

1. He still seems like the main safety valve. Who does Brooks look to on 3rd and 4?

2. If the offense improves, it means more chances, passes, and rushes. Lamont could catch a lower percentage of passes, but the same number of passes.

3. If Moss has injury issues again. Again, not likely (I hope), but possible.

 

[Two Deep]

I'm more concerned whether he is going to run downhill more this year. One cut and go, stop that dancing crap.

 

[zamboni]

Jordan is te perfect back for this team. An offensive line that is still coming together, and a tough, big back.  he has very good hands, and I believe that Art is going to make him into the next Marcus Allen.

Can a RB who leads the league in drops have "very" good hands?

He sure did drop a lot of passes last year, but having seen him play every game with the Jets, he does have good hands. I don't know what happened last year - maybe just a bad year, like Darrell Jackson had a few years back.

 

[zamboni]

I'm more concerned whether he is going to run downhill more this year. One cut and go, stop that dancing crap.

I agree with this - he tried to make to dance way too much last year. He seemed to run with much more authority during his time in NY.

 

[David Yudkin]

Jordan is te perfect back for this team. An offensive line that is still coming together, and a tough, big back.  he has very good hands, and I believe that Art is going to make him into the next Marcus Allen.

Can a RB who leads the league in drops have "very" good hands?

He sure did drop a lot of passes last year, but having seen him play every game with the Jets, he does have good hands. I don't know what happened last year - maybe just a bad year, like Darrell Jackson had a few years back.

Jordan was targeted 103 times last year (catching 68% of them), which I suspect is more than his entire career with the Jets. Maybe it just appears that he dropped more passes. (I have no other numbers to compare it to, just wondering outloud if he had the same percentage of drops.)

 

[jurb26]

I see a decrease in rec for Jordan for several reasons.

1. Brooks will not be as likely to check down to him as Collins was.

2. Moss should stay healthy.

3. The running game should improve reducing the need for "extended running plays."

My projection has him at 48 right now.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Some things to consider:

Regardless of the HC, Brooks is going to be throwing the ball. So, it seems to me that his tendencies would be the better indicator of where the ball goes. Sure playcalls may go for screens more often with some HCs than others, but I'm going to look at Brooks and LamJ here:

New Orleans:

RB Targets:

2005 - 98

2004 - 93

2003 - 100

2002 - 97

Brooks:

Total Passes / RB Passes / %

2005 - 431 - 77 - 18%

2004 - 542 - 93 - 17%

2003 - 518 - 100 - 19%

2002 - 528 - 97 -18%

Collins in 2005:

565 passes

WR targets: 377

RB targets: 118

TE targets: 60

(10 throwaways)

So RBs represented 21% of his targets.

Add one more thing, LamJ had 103 of 126 RB targets in OAK last year (82%).

Brooks throws, on average, 18% of the time to RBs. Collins threw 21% of the time to the RB. So slightly downgrade his targets by maybe 10%.

So if you have Brooks targeting the RBs on a similar level, or slightly less, LamJ should be in the 50-60 range quite easily.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Some things to consider:

Regardless of the HC, Brooks is going to be throwing the ball. So, it seems to me that his tendencies would be the better indicator of where the ball goes. Sure playcalls may go for screens more often with some HCs than others, but I'm going to look at Brooks and LamJ here:

New Orleans:

RB Targets:

2005 - 98

2004 - 93

2003 - 100

2002 - 97

Brooks:

Total Passes / RB Passes / %

2005 - 431 - 77 - 18%

2004 - 542 - 93 - 17%

2003 - 518 - 100 - 19%

2002 - 528 - 97 -18%

Collins in 2005:

565 passes

WR targets: 377

RB targets: 118

TE targets: 60

(10 throwaways)

So RBs represented 21% of his targets.

Add one more thing, LamJ had 103 of 126 RB targets in OAK last year (82%).

Brooks throws, on average, 18% of the time to RBs. Collins threw 21% of the time to the RB. So slightly downgrade his targets by maybe 10%.

So if you have Brooks targeting the RBs on a similar level, or slightly less, LamJ should be in the 50-60 range quite easily.

Thats good stuff Jeff

With that being said, Lamont got a high portion of Oakland's RB carries/receptions when compared to other feature RBs in the league, and I can only see that dropping. As well, Collins threw the ball 565 times, which was 2nd overall in the NFL. Although I think Oakland will still need to pass the ball a ton, they may not reach last year's numbers.

Thats really bickering about 5-10 receptions for Lamont though. Not a big deal.

 

[Fullback Fro]

Bump after Hall -of- Fame game.

 

[The Ref]

I was in the 55 camp before last nights game. I still am today. However, if the next game has LaMont stay in for most passes and have 0 targets I'll be changing my projections.