Larry Johnson: 2007 + ...... I see a lot of (1 Viewer)

[Englishteacher]

Larry Johnson EXPLODED in the second half of 2005. (Without looking at the #'s for Shaun Alexander) He was the best fantasy player overall during this stretch. The Chiefs offense is a juggernaut. Essentially, they have the best offensive line in football any given Sunday when they have their guys healthy. Trent Green is a Pro Bowl quarterback. Tony Gonzalez will be in the Hall of Fame 5 years after retirement. Eddie Kennison did a nice job of rescuing his career in KC. And, the Chiefs have added to a previously porous defense. It is essentially for these reasons however that I think we have Larry Johnson rated too highly in dynasty/keeper leagues.

First, the offensive line: Old. Very old. The chinks in the armor are starting to show. These guys are accumulating more injuries now. The injuries caused Tony Gonzalez to stay in more and block, contributing to his horrendous fantasy year in 2005. Some of these guys on the OL are going to retire soon. Or be forced into retirement by an injury. There are some quality reserves in this unit but none with the awesome capacity for production that the dinosaurs have. I don't see evolution here, the advancement of life into a more sophisticated and better apt to survive species. I see serious dropoff. Even if the Chiefs go balls out in free agency to replace some of these guys, it's hard to get a superstar O Lineman because of the competition from other teams (ask the Eagles about their pursuit of LeCharles Bentley or the Seahawks about trying to resign Steve Hutchinson) and the exorbitant cost. Even if they sign some front line guys, who's to say that the magical chemistry which has developed with this group over several years can be replicated? The best offensive lines are mostly units that have played together for awhile.

Trent Green is a savvy veteran QB. He's a Pro Bowler. He's also 35 years old. Also, he had a circulation problem in his leg last year that was serious enough his career was in jeopardy. Which brings me to my next point, his legs. The circulation problem occured in the knee that was demolished when he played for the Rams. Trent went down for the season and the Rams went to the Super Bowl on the back of some guy who was sorting out the Keebler Elf and Tony the Tiger in his previous job. Hell of an opportunity he missed. Trent wasn't mobile then, nor is he mobile now. If I'm Herman Edwards, I get skidmarks in my tighty whities anytime Trent is hit in 2006. The Chiefs lack a good backup. Even one of the backups (Collins) they had went to Washington when Joe Gibbs got Danny to shell out the big bucks to bring Al Saunders' large offensive cranium to the Skins. I don't like that. The Chiefs lack a QB of the future type behind Green as well. No solid backup; no young, future stud to take over the reigns after this season.

Further on the passing game: Gonzalez is still a stud TE. However, the Chiefs spent a high draft pick on Kris Wilson a couple of years ago when they worried about the fragility of Gonzalez's foot. He played through that injury and I'm not sure of the health of his foot now, but the longer you play in the NFL, the more ware you have on your body. TE's probably have a shorter life expectancy than WR's anyways because of the physical nature of their position. They do, after all, block Defensive Lineman and LBers on running plays. Gonzalez will play longer than most TE's most probably because of his enormous talent but I doubt we see the same Gonzalez in 2007 and beyond as the one of 2-3 years ago. His downfield running mate, Eddie Kennison, has been the lone consistent performer in the Chiefs WR core the last several years. Still, he's already retired once and is pretty ancient. The Chiefs have been lucky to get as much mileage as they have out of an older guy who's never been an elite WR anyway. We've also yet to see inspiring play out of the aforementioned Kris Wilson and the next best hope in the WR group, Samie Parker. These guys certainly will have chances to contribute long term but one finds it hard to imagine them going to Hawaii anytime soon.

The Chiefs used to be a joke on defense. It was hard to imagine how a team could be so unbalanced actually. The franchise tried hard in the last few years to bring respectability back on the opposite side of the ball. However, that has also meant taking in some guys who are good but are on the downside of their careers ( in order to provide a quick fix for the glass in their narrowing window of opportunity). Sammy Knight and Patrick Surtian are the headliners here. Kendrell Bell is younger but his exit from the Steelers came as a result of serious injury and it wasn't without considerable risk that the Chiefs inked him in a big free agent signing. Desperation will help you to do that. Eric Hicks is old and I'm pretty sure Greg Wesley is too. Eric Warfield is with the Patriots now I believe. Shawn Barber the Eagles. Carlos Hall was a Titans castoff. Ryan Sims has never justified being selected as the #6 overall player in the draft and Junior Siavii's greatest football accomplishment thus far may have been the record 40+ bench reps he threw up during the combine which catapulted his draft stock up to a second round selection by the defensively starved Chiefs (in retrospect, one might call it a need based reach, who knows?). Kawika Mitchell has struggled with injuries. Jared Allen and Derrick Johnson have shown promise but they may be fighting an uphill battle in 2007 and beyond trying to carry this defense without more help. I may be off on some of these assessments as I'm obviously more knowledgeable about offense being a FF nut but the long and short of it is, the Chiefs are very average as a defense now with the older guys they've brought in to plug the dike and have a questionable young talent base for 2007 and beyond.

Sounds like a good "Team" to draft in a redraft league but not in a keeper/dynasty league.

I'm going to post this now as the start of this thread is getting pretty long; then come back later in the evening with some thoughts more specific to Larry Johnson. Feel free to comment on what I've got so far.

 

[NYRAGE]

The biggest reason is that Hermie is an offense killer. This cat coaches scared. Despite the "you play to win" rhetoric, he plays to keep it close. That fool is always thinking field goal rather than td.

The speeches will sound great at first, but he won't walk the talk. Hell, he's already talking about the team being old. The excuses will never stop. We'll see in a couple of years.

 

[guderian]

Excellent post. I've traded away the few Chiefs players I've had recently because of their age problem. This can turn on them fast (see Oakland post Superbowl) and the problem will only get worse.

 

[gang-wars]

...snip...

It's the system. It's how they do it up in KC. Power rushing team. Look at Portis from Denver to the Skins. The system is at least 1/2 of a guys production. KC are going to be a power rushing team for a long time. That's who they are. They draft for it. They play it.

Herm isn't going to touch the offense. That's not why he was brought in. He's going to focus entirely on the defense. How much of an impact did Gruden have on the Bucs D? None. The D wasn't a problem. He's an offensive coach.

So KC isn't going to change how they do business. Herm isn't going to mess it up. The owner publicly called for LJ to be the starter when Holmes was healthy. The support system LJ has around him is 2nd to none.

Not to mention LJ is a stud. Ran for 2000 yards his final year in college, was a 1st round pick, and sat and waited behind Holmes. The guy is hungry. Did you see him run last year? He refuses to go down. His upper body strength is unreal. He sheds tacklers like they are college players. He has break away speed. He runs over defenders. And he has a probowl cast around him.

Holmes was average before he came to KC. KC is every RBs dream. This is just how they do it in KC. It's how the owner likes it, it's how the management like it, it's how the scouts like it, it's how the coaches like it. If they wanted a new system, they would have hired Martz. They don't want a new offensive system. They want a new DEFENSIVE system.

Lastly, he didn't explode at the end of 2005. He also exploded at the end of 2004. He had 13 TDs in the final 6 games of 2004. Splitting him with Holmes last year he was a top 10 RB. The guy is a stud, he's young, he's healthy, he's in a great system, on a great team for RBs, with a great cast.

You can go on about doom and gloom about 2-3-4 years in the future as people retire. Big deal. Who's ahead of him in dynasty rankings? SA will be gone before LJs line will be entirely gone. LT has no supporting cast. Portis? McGahee?

SA just lost his best guard. SA is 28. LT just lost his QB. LTs oline is average. You can go pick apart anyone. But there's just not a lot to dislike about a young, strong, proven RB playing in KC. If there's one team you want your stud RB playing for, it's KC. (denver is a close 2nd, but Shanny likes to get a new RB every 2-3 years to avoid paying them big money)

Everyone needs to get off LJ. The sky is not falling.

 

[CA_7]

Yes KC does have a great OL but they seem to always get 100% of the credit for LJ's success

I watched LJ a lot in the 2nd half of 05 and thought that he had great vision, patience and a knack for breaking tackles.

 

[SammyJankis]

...snip...

It's the system. It's how they do it up in KC. Power rushing team.

Agree. When a guy produces out of the atmosphere numbers, its almost always a combination of a system and a talented player, but the system is a big, big factor.When a team has proven, year-in, year-out that guys produce in their system, its hard to bet against them.

I'm thinking of:

- Denver Running Attack (Davis, Gary, Anderson, etc.)

- KC Running Attack (Holmes, Johnson)

- Dennis Green Passing Offenses (Cunningham, George, Culpepper)

- Martz Passing Offense (Warner, Bulger)

Let me put it another way: KC's running back has finished as the #1 or #2 overall player in FF, four of the last five years. (The only exception being in 2004, when Holmes finished 12th despite playing only 8 games.)

That's a pretty strong trend to buck.

 

[Family Matters]

If you say LJ's numbers will be lower on a per game basis then I say that's a reasonable assumption. But to suggest he will crash and burn doesn't really make that much sense. The "line is getting old" statement has been made since Holmes had his first big year. Sure Green is older but he's still more than capable.

They will find other lineman to replace the ones they've lost or will lose. The system will outlive LJ and likely continue before they tear it down.

The system they run in KC is going to remain strong. They have a long tradition of a strong running game and I see no reason to think that will change anytime soon. Edwards would be nuts to mess with that. Besides it plays into his defensive philosophy.

 

[cstu]

I think people are a little too worried about KC's OL. True, they are old but if it's run blocking you are looking for then that's a lot easier to come by. Pass blocking is a bigger issue, but KC can continue to bring in guys who can run block well even if their pass blocking suffers. They've been very lucky to have guys who can do both well.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

The only other guys worth consideration at #1 overall are LT and Alexander. Both have more question marks in their surrounding casts than LJ does. LT will be playing with a first year QB and Alexander lost the best guard in football. Both LT and Alexander also have much less tread on their tires than LJ.

As for LJ I don't think anyone really knows what he can do over a full season. He started 9 games last year and 3 in 2004. In 12 career starts his numbers are HOF material:

333 carries for 1627 yards, 4.9 AVG

39 receptions for 434 yards, 11.1 AVG

23 TD

When you prorate that over 16 starts you get:

444 carries for 2169 yards

52 receptions for 579 yards

31 TD

Now obviously that will never happen, but if LJ puts up 70% of his per start averages in 2006 (1518 rush, 405 rec, 21 TD) you still likely have the #1 overall player in FF.

 

[gman8343]

The only other guys worth consideration at #1 overall are LT and Alexander. Both have more question marks in their surrounding casts then LJ does. LT will be playing with a first year QB and Alexander lost the best guard in football. Both LT and Alexander also have much less tread on their tires than LJ.

 

[Englishteacher]

...snip...

It's the system. It's how they do it up in KC. Power rushing team. Look at Portis from Denver to the Skins. The system is at least 1/2 of a guys production. KC are going to be a power rushing team for a long time. That's who they are. They draft for it. They play it.

Herm isn't going to touch the offense. That's not why he was brought in. He's going to focus entirely on the defense. How much of an impact did Gruden have on the Bucs D? None. The D wasn't a problem. He's an offensive coach.

So KC isn't going to change how they do business. Herm isn't going to mess it up. The owner publicly called for LJ to be the starter when Holmes was healthy. The support system LJ has around him is 2nd to none.

Not to mention LJ is a stud. Ran for 2000 yards his final year in college, was a 1st round pick, and sat and waited behind Holmes. The guy is hungry. Did you see him run last year? He refuses to go down. His upper body strength is unreal. He sheds tacklers like they are college players. He has break away speed. He runs over defenders. And he has a probowl cast around him.

Holmes was average before he came to KC. KC is every RBs dream. This is just how they do it in KC. It's how the owner likes it, it's how the management like it, it's how the scouts like it, it's how the coaches like it. If they wanted a new system, they would have hired Martz. They don't want a new offensive system. They want a new DEFENSIVE system.

Lastly, he didn't explode at the end of 2005. He also exploded at the end of 2004. He had 13 TDs in the final 6 games of 2004. Splitting him with Holmes last year he was a top 10 RB. The guy is a stud, he's young, he's healthy, he's in a great system, on a great team for RBs, with a great cast.

You can go on about doom and gloom about 2-3-4 years in the future as people retire. Big deal. Who's ahead of him in dynasty rankings? SA will be gone before LJs line will be entirely gone. LT has no supporting cast. Portis? McGahee?

SA just lost his best guard. SA is 28. LT just lost his QB. LTs oline is average. You can go pick apart anyone. But there's just not a lot to dislike about a young, strong, proven RB playing in KC. If there's one team you want your stud RB playing for, it's KC. (denver is a close 2nd, but Shanny likes to get a new RB every 2-3 years to avoid paying them big money)

Everyone needs to get off LJ. The sky is not falling.

Convincing! I certainly think LJ is a Top dynasty keeper. The future is bright. I jst don't know about the sun shining ever so brightly as it is right now and for 2006 as in 2007 and beyond, which is when you start to think about a guy in keeper dynasty terms. However, I do see the guy being able to be a Top running back, in the 8-14 TD range based on his talent alone after this year. I'm just wondering whether we're going to see him be the stuff fantasy legends are made of (seasons like Marshall Faulk and Shaun Alexander) in 2007 and beyond which is where I start to tenure the no ceiling outlook and look seriously at comparing him to Shaun Alexander, LT, Portis, Edge (I think in 2 years Green will have built an elite offense, of course, he has to be healthy and playing) , Rudi Johnson (Marvin still improving that team) , a big time back in Denver, a big time back in Indy, Reggie Bush (if he proves to be a guy who can get it dne in the red zone) , a Ronnie Brown after 2006 when the Chiefs may have seen a decline, a stud back in NE, Stephen Jackson, and Cadillac.

That said, I think LJ is going to have a monster 2006. When you do do keeper dynasty rankings certainly the present year factors in, moreso than the future actually, but I was just going on the notion that, "Hey, everybody is drooling over him in this moment and placing his value through the roof, as the 'what have you done for me lately' thing works in a guy's favor if he's knocked it out of the park for you, but what if you subtract some of the Willie Roaf, Brian Waters, Casey Wiegmann, Will Shields, Tony Gonzalez, and Eddie Kennison core? Then take away the ancient guys helping hold that average D together?"

I'm also not current on what the Chiefs salary cap situation is, I think they're pretty tight correct? And, how much of the cap will be taken up in 2007 and beyond by "dead money" which would prohibit the growth of another stage for the Chiefs after the aforementioned old guys have come and gone?

 

[SoloMatisse]

thats alot of effort to put into bashing the #1 dynasty prospect in FF. Whats the motivation here? Do you think youre doing us all a favor by letting us in on your little secret?......



I love the effort guys put forth trying to devalue players. its how the game is played.....

 

[beto]

LJ would put up great numbers behind Arizona's line, SF's receivers, Joey Harrington at QB, Houston's defense and Chris Palmer calling the plays.

 

[Englishteacher]

Guys, I gotta confess I've owned Alexander his entire career in my main money league which is a Keep 6 with no draft pick subtractions for keeping players. Hence my thought on the subject. It is a luxury to be sifting through backs that have scored between 10 and 25+ TD's no doubt, so if it seems I'm being a nitpicking stickler here, well......... Oftentimes we discuss who's #1 too much instead of "where is the value"?

But, I was actually thinking of making some kind of trade involving SA and LT so it got me to thinking pretty hard. You have to think hard to find reasons why you don't like LJ but I am looking for value believe me. This, or any trade any of us would make involving a stud RB, involves a lot more thought than sending your best drinking buddy a WR #2 (on his own NFL Team, and think Cleveland or Houston instead of Indy or Arizona) for a 10th round pick in next year's draft to cover a bye week or fill in because his WR #3 tore an ACL.

 

[-OZ-]

The only other guys worth consideration at #1 overall are LT and Alexander. Both have more question marks in their surrounding casts then LJ does. LT will be playing with a first year QB and Alexander lost the best guard in football. Both LT and Alexander also have much less tread on their tires than LJ.

What?Anyway, LJ will be a stud RB even after Roaf, Shields and Weigmann retire. I do not however, see him as the #1 RB at that time. Top 5, probably. Top 10 for sure.

LJ looked phenomenal, but it's much easier to look phenomenal when you're not sweating the first few yards.

The new OC is the old OL coach, that will help keep things flowing, but you don't replace HOF linemen easily.

I have no problem with LJ as the #1 pick, but I doubt he's a top 3 in 3 years.

 

[-OZ-]

LJ would put up great numbers behind Arizona's line, SF's receivers, Joey Harrington at QB, Houston's defense and Chris Palmer calling the plays.

Ironically (except the WR part) that's McGahee last year.

 

[Englishteacher]

LJ would put up great numbers behind Arizona's line, SF's receivers, Joey Harrington at QB, Houston's defense and Chris Palmer calling the plays.

Ironically (except the WR part) that's McGahee last year.

Which is why I didn't mention him in the "guys who might be better than LJ in 2007" breath above. That team has a long way to go and it's going to take probably two nearly perfect drafts to right the ship for 2008.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

  Both LT and Alexander also have much less tread on their tires than LJ.

What?

They've been hit more than LJ has, how's that?

 

[cstu]

thats alot of effort to put into bashing the #1 dynasty prospect in FF. Whats the motivation here? Do you think youre doing us all a favor by letting us in on your little secret?......



I love the effort guys put forth trying to devalue players. its how the game is played.....

#1, over LT?

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

The most impressive aspect of LJ is his consistency.

In his 12 starts:

10/12 went over 100 yards rushing.

10/12 went over 150 yards rush/rec. The games with less than 150 yds combined: one with 149 and his low of 122.

10/12 went for 2 or more TD. 1 game with 1 TD and one shutout at Buffalo (still had 132 rush, 46 rec)

 

[-OZ-]

LJ would put up great numbers behind Arizona's line, SF's receivers, Joey Harrington at QB, Houston's defense and Chris Palmer calling the plays.

Ironically (except the WR part) that's McGahee last year.

Which is why I didn't mention him in the "guys who might be better than LJ in 2007" breath above. That team has a long way to go and it's going to take probably two nearly perfect drafts to right the ship for 2008.

Agreed, I'm simply saying they're comparable talents in opposite situations. I see LJ's downside close to what McGahee was last year.

 

[-OZ-]

Both LT and Alexander also have much less tread on their tires than LJ.

What?

They've been hit more than LJ has, how's that?

I read this wrong.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Good post OP, but in a post about LJ's downside I can't believe the loss of Vermeil wasn't mentioned. The guy churned record setting RBs out of his last two teams and practically thought it was illegal to pass inside the 10. Herm replaces him, and he isn't exactly known for lighting up the scoreboards.

 

[cowboyz]

can someone tell me what happened when willie roaf didn't play last year?

 

[Chaos]

...snip...

It's the system. It's how they do it up in KC. Power rushing team. How much of an impact did Gruden have on the Bucs D? None. The D wasn't a problem.

Bad analogy. The Bucs didn't lose their Defensive coordinator, The Chiefs however did lose their Offensive coordinator. Expect changes to that offense.

 

[-OZ-]

...snip...

It's the system. It's how they do it up in KC. Power rushing team. How much of an impact did Gruden have on the Bucs D? None. The D wasn't a problem.

Bad analogy. The Bucs didn't lose their Defensive coordinator, The Chiefs however did lose their Offensive coordinator. Expect changes to that offense.

Fair enough, just keep in mind who the replacement is.

 

[Shermanator]

Owners that had LJ last year know his value rivals no other player. If you didnt have him on your team the second half of last year, you may not understand. I dont know if any other player in fantasy history had a stronger fantasy playoff run . Ever. And he undoubtedly led his owners (including myself) to a championship.

He is clearly the #1 overall pick in any type of fantasy league, and honestly, its not very close.

The debate of LJ/SA/LT reminds me of the early 90's debate of Emmitt/Barry. They are similar, but Emmitt was always the #1 pick. Deservedly so

 

[joffer]

LJ would put up great numbers behind Arizona's line, SF's receivers, Joey Harrington at QB, Houston's defense and Chris Palmer calling the plays.

oh my no

 

[gang-wars]

...snip...

It's the system. It's how they do it up in KC. Power rushing team. How much of an impact did Gruden have on the Bucs D? None. The D wasn't a problem.

Bad analogy. The Bucs didn't lose their Defensive coordinator, The Chiefs however did lose their Offensive coordinator. Expect changes to that offense.

No way. You're telling me they'll have a new blocking scheme for that line? The new OC was the old LINE coach! *lol*

The new OC has BEEN with the Chiefs. It's NOT a new system at all. You're telling me Green will have you learn a new offense?

Clearly you're shooting blanks on this one.

 

[Q-Bert]

can someone tell me what happened when willie roaf didn't play last year?

That is a very good question and I wish I could answer it. Does anyone know which games Roaf missed? I feel like there was at least one game with LJ as the starter that Roaf missed. I'd like to see the impact of his absence on the KC running game.Edit...

Here is what I was able to find from the Chiefs website.

Week (Injury Status)

2 (D)

3 (Q)

4 (Q)

6 (Q)

9 (Q)

10 (D)

11 (D)

12 (Q)

14 (P)

But still no indication on which games he actually missed. But, just guessing based on the games where he was doubfull. It looks like weeks 10 and 11 were games started by LJ but not Roaf. Week 10 was LJ's only start where he failed to score a touchdown. He did however have 178 yards of offense. In week 11, LJ had 217 total yards and 2 TDs. Simply looking at the fairly large number of games where Roaf either didn't play or was limited, it seems to me that the Chiefs were able to still put up huge numbers regardless of Roaf's status. Not that it wouldn't be nice to have him healthy all season, just that it will not be the end of the world when he retires.

 

[Clayton Gray]

Good post OP, but in a post about LJ's downside I can't believe the loss of Vermeil wasn't mentioned.  The guy churned record setting RBs out of his last two teams and practically thought it was illegal to pass inside the 10.  Herm replaces him, and he isn't exactly known for lighting up the scoreboards.

That's a popular argument, but it doesn't hold water with Johnson. The Jets seemed to have a pretty solid fantasy RB under Herman Edwards.

 

[ExaltedOne]

can someone tell me what happened when willie roaf didn't play last year?

That is a very good question and I wish I could answer it. Does anyone know which games Roaf missed? I feel like there was at least one game with LJ as the starter that Roaf missed. I'd like to see the impact of his absence on the KC running game.Edit...

Here is what I was able to find from the Chiefs website.

Week (Injury Status)

2 (D)

3 (Q)

4 (Q)

6 (Q)

9 (Q)

10 (D)

11 (D)

12 (Q)

14 (P)

But still no indication on which games he actually missed. But, just guessing based on the games where he was doubfull. It looks like weeks 10 and 11 were games started by LJ but not Roaf. Week 10 was LJ's only start where he failed to score a touchdown. He did however have 178 yards of offense. In week 11, LJ had 217 total yards and 2 TDs. Simply looking at the fairly large number of games where Roaf either didn't play or was limited, it seems to me that the Chiefs were able to still put up huge numbers regardless of Roaf's status. Not that it wouldn't be nice to have him healthy all season, just that it will not be the end of the world when he retires.

Roaf missed weeks 2-4 and weeks 8-10 (6 games). In those 6 games the Chiefs runningbacks racked up 626 yards and 7TDs on the ground, for an average of 104.3 yards and 1.2 TDs per game.During the 10 weeks that Roaf played, Chiefs runningbacks rushed for 1575 yards and 19 TDS, or an average of 157.5 yards and 1.9 TDs.

It might also be prudent to note that Holmes was injured during a week that Roaf was out.

He made a difference.

 

[The Jerk]

Good post OP, but in a post about LJ's downside I can't believe the loss of Vermeil wasn't mentioned.  The guy churned record setting RBs out of his last two teams and practically thought it was illegal to pass inside the 10.  Herm replaces him, and he isn't exactly known for lighting up the scoreboards.

That's a popular argument, but it doesn't hold water with Johnson. The Jets seemed to have a pretty solid fantasy RB under Herman Edwards.

How soon people forget...During the 2004 season, with Herm Edwards as his head coach, Curtis Martin led the league in rushing -- at age 31, no less -- as well as having:

the most rushing yards in his career

the most rushing attempts in his career

the highest yards per carry in his career

the most total yards from scrimmage in his career

the most total touches in his career (tied his previous high)

Martin's 14 total TDs in 2004 is the most he has had as a Jet and was his best since his first two pro seasons as a Patriot in 1996-97.

 

[SoloMatisse]

Good post OP, but in a post about LJ's downside I can't believe the loss of Vermeil wasn't mentioned.  The guy churned record setting RBs out of his last two teams and practically thought it was illegal to pass inside the 10.  Herm replaces him, and he isn't exactly known for lighting up the scoreboards.

That's a popular argument, but it doesn't hold water with Johnson. The Jets seemed to have a pretty solid fantasy RB under Herman Edwards.

How soon people forget...During the 2004 season, with Herm Edwards as his head coach, Curtis Martin led the league in rushing -- at age 31, no less -- as well as having:

the most rushing yards in his career

the most rushing attempts in his career

the highest yards per carry in his career

the most total yards from scrimmage in his career

the most total touches in his career (tied his previous high)

Martin's 14 total TDs in 2004 is the most he has had as a Jet and was his best since his first two pro seasons as a Patriot in 1996-97.

Jerk-Nice response here. We may just have to change your handle to 'the closer' because you just came in here and closed this dicussion. Or it could be 'tupperware' because you absolutely sealed the deal here regarding ????s about how Herm Edwards is going to decrease LJs value. Nice job. Now if we just get people to realize that LJ actually had 1750 and 21 while Roaf actually missed 6 games. Imagine what he'll do this year if Roaf plays the entire season, but more importantly moving forward beyond next season, Roaf's absence wont be the end of the world. A great player and sorely missed, but just like every other player in the league...replaceable.

 

[Chaos]

...snip...

It's the system. It's how they do it up in KC. Power rushing team. How much of an impact did Gruden have on the Bucs D? None. The D wasn't a problem.

Bad analogy. The Bucs didn't lose their Defensive coordinator, The Chiefs however did lose their Offensive coordinator. Expect changes to that offense.

No way. You're telling me they'll have a new blocking scheme for that line? The new OC was the old LINE coach! *lol*

The new OC has BEEN with the Chiefs. It's NOT a new system at all. You're telling me Green will have you learn a new offense?

Clearly you're shooting blanks on this one.

Dude, I said was that his analogy to Gruden and Bucs DEF was bad and does nothing to prove changes can't or won't occur. How is that shooting blanks?Further, anytime you change a coach you can expect change. It just comes with the territory. You can say "but he is the O-line coach so there will be no change" all you want but I don't buy it. Give me some real comparisons where this happened and not some ridiculous Gruden analogy.

 

[Englishteacher]

Just thought this topic would be interesting to re-discuss due to the recent developments. Roaf retiring is a big deal.

 

[MLBrandow]

As high as I am on him this year, I am also low on him for next year.

I agree LJ is definitely an amazing RB with loads of talent, but Roaf and Shields and potentially Green will be gone next year.

I would consider him to a dropoff to somewhere in the top-5, possibly behind Portis, LT, SA, Cadillac, although I wouldn't hold my breath, especially after he has the kind of season he's going to have.

Also, how long would you expect his big dropoff to be? So he comes back down to earth for a season or two... it's not like he's going to put up Antowain Smith numbers.

 

[TwinTurbo]

Owners that had LJ last year know his value rivals no other player. If you didnt have him on your team the second half of last year, you may not understand. I dont know if any other player in fantasy history had a stronger fantasy playoff run . Ever. And he undoubtedly led his owners (including myself) to a championship.

He is clearly the #1 overall pick in any type of fantasy league, and honestly, its not very close.

The debate of LJ/SA/LT reminds me of the early 90's debate of Emmitt/Barry. They are similar, but Emmitt was always the #1 pick. Deservedly so

And Emmitt was the #1 because he had the best OL in the league. Same with LJ last year. But now the KC OL is looking pretty shaky. Will there still be huge holes for LJ to roll through this year? He's a beast but he doesn't have the moves of Barry Sanders or LT. I don't see him being as successful without solid OL play.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Owners that had LJ last year know his value rivals no other player. If you didnt have him on your team the second half of last year, you may not understand. I dont know if any other player in fantasy history had a stronger fantasy playoff run . Ever. And he undoubtedly led his owners (including myself) to a championship.

He is clearly the #1 overall pick in any type of fantasy league, and honestly, its not very close.

The debate of LJ/SA/LT reminds me of the early 90's debate of Emmitt/Barry. They are similar, but Emmitt was always the #1 pick. Deservedly so

And Emmitt was the #1 because he had the best OL in the league. Same with LJ last year. But now the KC OL is looking pretty shaky. Will there still be huge holes for LJ to roll through this year? He's a beast but he doesn't have the moves of Barry Sanders or LT. I don't see him being as successful without solid OL play.

No one is successful without solid Oline play. However, I think people will be surprised by how well SA (no Hutchison), LT2 (new, first time QB), and Johnson perform. We've kind of been spoiled in recent years with the "super back". Anyone remember the "Marshall Faulk Strategy" or whatever it was called where whoever had Faulk was essentially fielding an extra player? Then it morphed in to Holmes...ALexander....LT2....now LJ in some form. It's entirely possible that we will see a run of seasons where the rushing records and TD records and total yardage records are nowhere near challenged. That won't make having a stud RB any less important.

Are their problems with LJ's situation? You bet. But there are problems in most every situation, just as there are most years. Some guys will perform well, some will not. Some will get hurt, some will stay healthy for the first time ever. Some will come out of nowhere, some will frustrate to no end.

My point (I'm getting there, I swear) is to not get too much "paralysis by analysis." LJ could lose 1/4 to 1/3 of his expected production and STILL be a top-3 guy that leads you to a championship. Same with a couple other guys. Barring injuries, which are often unpredictable, it's only when a guy just completely falls apart that your team will suffer. Even when Ricky went from top-2 2002 to 3.5 ypc in 2003, he was still a top-10 fantasy back. (If Randy McMichael doesn't get called for holding on the other side of the field against Houston in week 1 of '03 on a 50 yard screen pass for TD, Ricky's a top-8 or even top-7 guy. )

Summary: don't outsmart yourself, particularly when the research and work you've put in to making good decisions has been so diligent and well-reasoned.

Colin

 

[Englishteacher]

I want to make myself clear as the thread starter that I'm not taking a sky is falling viewpoint. Back in April when the thread got rolling I was merely saying this guy is not totally bulletproof as the top stone in the fantasy football pyramid. Do I still want him on my team? Yes. However, I was looking at some very alluring players when comparing them all. You're talking about SA, LT2, Portis, et all. Perhaps the thread title " a lot of downside" was misleading but when you're talking about the top stone you're talking some serious competition. If you're in a dynasty league this is important stuff.