Losing Vermeil and OC drops him from 1st to 2nd or 3rd pick of draft.
He will still put up numbers 1500yds 15 tds but nothing like the pace he was on.
It isn't exactly a bold statement to suspect Larry Johnson won't be able to keep up his pace from the time he became a starter last year.Over a 16 game season, his pace from weeks 9 to 17 would correspond to:
2402 rushing yards, 491 receiving yards and 30 TDs
These numbers would exceed the existing records for
most rush yards, season (2105, Dickerson) by 14%
most yards from scrimmage, season (2429, Faulk) by 19%
most TDs, season (28, Alexander) by 8 %
But here's the scary part: Johnson's pace actually increased as the season progressed. Over a 16 game season, his pace from weeks 13 to 17 would correspond to:
2502 rushing yards, 394 receiving yards, and 38 TDs
I can't see how losing Vermeil and Saunders helps; however, I think more depends on Priest Holmes' role (if any) and the OL (especially Shields and Roaf). It might help the continuity of the OL that Mike Solari is the new OC after coaching the OL for the past nine seasons.
But I'm not at all concerned about Herm Edwards as coach. Don't forget that during the 2004 season, Curtis Martin led the league in rushing -- at age 31, no less -- as well as:
the most rushing yards in his career
the most rushing attempts in his career
the highest yards per carry in his career
the most total yards from scrimmage in his career
the most total touches in his career (tied his previous high)
Martin's 14 total TDs is the most he has had as a Jet and was his best since his first two pro seasons as a Patriot in 1996-97.
I really hope that all the teams in my redraft league think like you and let him slide to me. I'll be happy to take him. I think 2000 total yards and 20 TDs is much more likely. Barring injury or massive OL changes, the 1500 yards and 15 TDs you list seem like the absolute worst case scenario for LJ in 2006.