Losing Vermeil and OC drops him from 1st to 2nd or 3rd pick of draft.He will still put up numbers 1500yds 15 tds but nothing like the pace he was on.I take em in this order:Alexander - Solid as hell every year and getting better LJ - wont put up the same numbers with HermLT - Over rated - Always number one pick ... never number one at end of year.
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Larry Johnson (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter monk
- Start date
ILoveMyLions
Footballguy
More importantly is whether or not Shields and/or Roaf are back next year. Anyone heard anything on this?
Organized Chaos
Footballguy
2,6,2 over the last three years in my PPR leagues.. Not exactly over rated if you ask me.Where is Alexander in that same timeline...
1,8,13..
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The Jerk
Footballguy
It isn't exactly a bold statement to suspect Larry Johnson won't be able to keep up his pace from the time he became a starter last year.Over a 16 game season, his pace from weeks 9 to 17 would correspond to:
2402 rushing yards, 491 receiving yards and 30 TDs
These numbers would exceed the existing records for
most rush yards, season (2105, Dickerson) by 14%
most yards from scrimmage, season (2429, Faulk) by 19%
most TDs, season (28, Alexander) by 8 %
But here's the scary part: Johnson's pace actually increased as the season progressed. Over a 16 game season, his pace from weeks 13 to 17 would correspond to:
2502 rushing yards, 394 receiving yards, and 38 TDs
I can't see how losing Vermeil and Saunders helps; however, I think more depends on Priest Holmes' role (if any) and the OL (especially Shields and Roaf). It might help the continuity of the OL that Mike Solari is the new OC after coaching the OL for the past nine seasons.
But I'm not at all concerned about Herm Edwards as coach. Don't forget that during the 2004 season, Curtis Martin led the league in rushing -- at age 31, no less -- as well as:
the most rushing yards in his career
the most rushing attempts in his career
the highest yards per carry in his career
the most total yards from scrimmage in his career
the most total touches in his career (tied his previous high)
Martin's 14 total TDs is the most he has had as a Jet and was his best since his first two pro seasons as a Patriot in 1996-97.
I really hope that all the teams in my redraft league think like you and let him slide to me. I'll be happy to take him. I think 2000 total yards and 20 TDs is much more likely. Barring injury or massive OL changes, the 1500 yards and 15 TDs you list seem like the absolute worst case scenario for LJ in 2006.
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Sweet Love
IBL Representative
I never (in this case rarely) knock scoring systems, but Alexander finishing as RB 13 the year he sets the recrod for TDs is not realistic. We do a 1/2 PPR and I feel the results are more in line with true production.
Texasmouth
Footballguy
It isn't like the offensive philosophy is going to change in KC. It will be exactly the same INHO. I think LJ will have better numbers than what everyone is projecting simply becuase he is that good. 
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
Who ever picks the number one fantasy guy with the number one pick of the year? Did you pick Manning #1 the year he went off? If you did, that was still a bad pick because you could have had LT AND Manning! If you don't understand why this was a stupid statement, you don't understand fantasy football.
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
How has no one yet mentioned that the Chiefs new offensive cordinator is the Chief's old O-line coach.I suspect things will play out pretty close to the same. Also, it's not like Herm's runners in NY had a bad track record. Curtis Martin won the rushing title in '04, for example.It isn't like the offensive philosophy is going to change in KC. It will be exactly the same INHO. I think LJ will have better numbers than what everyone is projecting simply becuase he is that good.
Cookiemonster
Footballguy
Granted, he's better and in a better situation than I'm going to list, but wasn't the kool-aid just flowing like this a year ago for McGahee and K.J.. I drank the K.J. sewage :X . I'm not quite ready to go there again just yet.
Sweet Love
IBL Representative
LOL. And that is why I do not knock scoring systems...
Warpig
Footballguy
Like the guy said ealier...if Roaf and Shields don't come back. He'll be lucky to post 1100 yards and 10 td's. Which means he'll be a little better than a middle of the road RB.It isn't like the offensive philosophy is going to change in KC. It will be exactly the same INHO. I think LJ will have better numbers than what everyone is projecting simply becuase he is that good.
How so, I am not sure I buy that argument? TO scores way more TDs than Kennison does. I think TO would make Trent Green a happy man, but I would think that some rushing TDs would be pilfered by receiving TDs. I think Kennison will probably get just as many TDs as he has been since he will have a lot more deep bombs where he is single covered by the worst DB and I think that Gonzalez's numbers would also be better because he will be single covered again.I just don't buy the notion that it would open up the running game more than it would open up the entire offense, but still at a detriment to the running stats. With TO, Gonzalez and Kennison/Parker, there would be a lot more receptions, receiving yards and receiving TDs.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
But Herm's Jets teams were notoriously conservative as well. The Chiefs were anything but conservative in their play calling under Saunders/Vermeil. A 1st time OC like Solari is much more likely to be shaped by Edwards' own mandate than someone like Saunders or Norv Turner would've been.How has no one yet mentioned that the Chiefs new offensive cordinator is the Chief's old O-line coach.I suspect things will play out pretty close to the same. Also, it's not like Herm's runners in NY had a bad track record. Curtis Martin won the rushing title in '04, for example.It isn't like the offensive philosophy is going to change in KC. It will be exactly the same INHO. I think LJ will have better numbers than what everyone is projecting simply becuase he is that good.
Bad example my friend, these guys couldn't carry LJ's jock and neither has shown what LJ has.
zamboni
Footballguy
I agree with Jason.While Herm's RBs always get a ton of carries, the playcalling (with both Hackett and Dinger) was quite conservative. That is, not a lot of down-the-field, chance-taking compared with KC.But Herm's Jets teams were notoriously conservative as well. The Chiefs were anything but conservative in their play calling under Saunders/Vermeil. A 1st time OC like Solari is much more likely to be shaped by Edwards' own mandate than someone like Saunders or Norv Turner would've been.How has no one yet mentioned that the Chiefs new offensive cordinator is the Chief's old O-line coach.I suspect things will play out pretty close to the same. Also, it's not like Herm's runners in NY had a bad track record. Curtis Martin won the rushing title in '04, for example.It isn't like the offensive philosophy is going to change in KC. It will be exactly the same INHO. I think LJ will have better numbers than what everyone is projecting simply becuase he is that good.
While Herm could be more aggressive than in years past, I think he'll be more comfortable pounding the ball to keep the defense off the field. That could still translate into the same number of carries, but the number of scoring opportunities could be less than with Vermeil/Saunders.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
That's the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Priest was that good or better but did jack squat in Baltimore. Vinny Testerverde turned into a pretty good QB once he left TB. Culpepper was all world with Linehan and Moss with the Vikings and horrible with them gone. NFL history is littered with players that performed better (or worse) in different systems and offensive schemes. Guys can't win the game on their own. The one exception to that might be Barry Sanders because he excelled in spite of his O line rather than because of it. If you truly believe that a guy is great regardless of his situation then you need to ask for a refund from your league commissioner because those guys are robbing you blind.It isn't like the offensive philosophy is going to change in KC. It will be exactly the same INHO. I think LJ will have better numbers than what everyone is projecting simply becuase he is that good.
The Jerk
Footballguy
Actually, I mentioned both Mike Solari as the new OC was the old OL coach and Curtis Martin in 2004 seven posts before yours.How has no one yet mentioned that the Chiefs new offensive cordinator is the Chief's old O-line coach.I suspect things will play out pretty close to the same. Also, it's not like Herm's runners in NY had a bad track record. Curtis Martin won the rushing title in '04, for example.It isn't like the offensive philosophy is going to change in KC. It will be exactly the same INHO. I think LJ will have better numbers than what everyone is projecting simply becuase he is that good.
cstu
Footballguy
I thought we've been past that for a couple years now? There were good cases for Priest in 2004 and SA last year. I still think he's the safest back you can draft with the #1, but he doesn't have the upside of someone on a team with a great OL.Again, not the point. I think we have finally gotten past the LT and nobody else is even close to the #1 pick line of thinking. At least I hope so.
Synthesizer
Footballguy
This argument is getting old.... just because you draft a guy #1 overall doesn't mean that you guarantee he finishes #1 at the end of the year. Compare the downsides of these 3 players and you'll understand why LT could be picked #1 overall.
