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Last Minute LIGHTNING BOLTS!!! Pre-Week 6 edition..... (1 Viewer)

TZMarkie

Footballguy
 PLEASE NOTE - This thread is generally geared for redraft leagues, or low numbered keeper leagues.

 Shoutout to Daylight  and his "2017 RB LOTTO TICKET RANKINGS" which is here ---->  https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/759610-2017-rb-lotto-ticket-rankings/

 His thread might be the best running source of continually updated RB information I have seen.  Everyone should go there, for weekly tracking and opinions on who the next big "grab" will be. Invariably this "Last Minute Lightning Bolt" pickups, will also include some RBs as well.

There are endless different "sleeper" or hype threads, but the point of this, is to essentially.... TAKE A CHANCE.  A stab in the dark, last minute before the waivers lock.  That one end of bench spot you have a "droppable bum" on..... head to the waiver wire, and take a complete shot in the dark. Basically gamble on a circumstantial change to a team. (I never like to see anyone injured, but lets face it, its part of our game guys) Injury plays a major role in this. So while I am not in the business of forecasting injuries, this thread is essentially a "lets take a chance on this guy". You snag a guy on a wild gamble, if someone gets hurt, then you may have gotten lucky at the last minute....if he misses or doesn't pan out, you have only  tied up that last end of bench spot, that is likely saved for a guy that will never crack your lineup to boot. These guys are often the handcuffs, that are flying under the radar.  Secondary or tertiary guys, that if you snag last minute, and something happens, they may pan out for a week or two, or in rare cases they may help rest-of-season.

I entitled this thread "LAST MINUTE LIGHTNING BOLTS" as in the past I used to post it within the last couple of hours pre-kickoff. Last year on another site, I did it several times, within the last hour, even 30 minutes before the games begin.

The earlier installment of this thread, (2 weeks ago) here ------->  https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/761058-last-minute-lightning-bolts-pre-week-4-edition/#comment-20476037

 It had some notables, including Will Fuller...and others. Last week I was unable to post a thread before the game.

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  Over the slate of my leagues, here are a few I am taking a chance on. (and a few other guys I know looking for a hail Mary play)

MATT BREIDA -  Breida is now owned in 20% of Yahoo leagues.  I mentioned him in this thread 2 weeks back.  Rumors came out yesterday of CARLOS HYDE being potentially shopped. Many snagged Breida over the course of the last week or two, and last week he got a uptick in work. (10 carries and some passing work to boot)  The notable thing is, Hyde was sidelined for parts of the game.  This may well be "the changing of the guard".  If Hyde is truly being shopped around, it wouldn't surprise me if he was actually made inactive before the game.  This is a hard situation to gauge, since he looked so good just a couple weeks ago. This may well turn out to be a "non situation" and Hyde still receives the majority of the work.   But then again, if Breida is still available, dump someone off the end of your bench and take a shot. Hyde could still get injured, lest we not forget his history.  So this is a game where Breida has been getting a growing number of touches, and he could well help you today if desperate, but its far more about the long term play here.   Breida could have the biggest payoff if things go just right for him.

 This could well be your last chance to acquire him, if he isn't already gone..

 DAVID NJOKU - This might be as much about Browns "new" starter Kevin Hogan as it is about anything else.   Njoku went 3 for 3 last week, and that included a TD.  Kevin Hogan has never started a game, yet in several games he was called upon to come in and "pick up the pieces", often when Cleveland was getting blown out, but mostly it was because of injury to someone in front of him. Regardless of the reason, he has looked serviceable in limited action.  Often young QB's will tend to look to checkdown to their TEs and this could be another example. 

I don't quite know he will get a massive workload, but he is looking more and more like their go-to redzone target.  Even though he is getting very few targets (at least at this point) he is pretty damn good at catching what he DOES get thrown his way.  In 5 weeks, he is 12 for 15 with THREE TDs.  The yardage isn't there yet, but is this the week he starts becoming a bigger part of the offense...? Hogan is needing  big targets to lean on, and its not like there is an overload of dependable guys right now for the Browns.

DION LEWIS - I don't personally own any Patriots RBs. But for the truly desperate "lightning bolt" snag, DION LEWIS is only owned in 9% of Yahoo leagues. He was actually the Patriots "leading rusher" last week, if you want to call it that, and was 7 for 53. It should be noted that REX BURKHEAD IS OUT FOR WEEK 6.  This is most likely because all the other Pats RBs are healthy and Lewis will likely need an injury for any real fantasy relevance, but we may need to keep him on our radars.

 WENDELL SMALLWOOD - Many leagues I noticed that Smallwood was dropped in the last 10 days or so. He is currently sitting at 35% Yahoo ownership, so he is still out there in some leagues. I just happened to notice he was on a few wires, and most likely he was dropped for the knee injury he had.  He was "questionable" up until a few days ago, so there is a decent chance he will return next week.  In weeks 3 and 4, he had 12 and 10 carries, some passing work and a TD.  Legarrette BLOUNT  is the Eagles big punishing back, but Smallwood isn't going anywhere. Not only that, the Eagles are putting up in excess of 27 points a game, and don't mind lighting it up when the game script dictates it. Again, as the passing down back and change of pace guy, Smallwood isn't going anywhere. If he was dropped in your league, pick him back up before the next team does.  I don't look at this as so much of a "lightning bolt pickup", he should be owned everywhere.

KENNY STILLS -  The Dolphins are playing the Falcons. The key here is DeVante Parker is doubtful, and likely won't go.   So the Dolphins are probably going to have to chuck it to try and  keep up, and Parker being out should make Kenny Stills relevant. I expect a few deep shots, possibly a few more than usual heading towards Stills. Looks like he is only 17% owned in yahoo, so he is out there in a fair amount of leagues.  I don't expect him to be a long term play, but with Parker out, he might be a passable one week option.

 QUICK EDIT - HONORABLE MENTIONS........ RICARDO LOUIS, JOSH DOCTSON, CHRIS IVORY.

 Who do you all have?

 TZM

 
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OU#1

Footballguy
All Eagles players should be locked and now on waivers unless leagues have non standard rules?  So isn’t Smallwood now a week 7 pickup?

 

TZMarkie

Footballguy
 You are correct.

Totally slipped my mind that the Eagles played already. (Which is humorous, as I had Wentz going in one league, and as a complete fluke I got to watch the game, something I normally can't do on Thursdays)

I remembered seeing Smallwood on a few wires, and couldn't believe it. Thats what stood out to me.

This list is generally a true dart throw. Something that doesn't work out much, but when it does, it can often save you a week, and if you are truly lucky and the right things happen..it can lead to solid help for weeks/rest of season.

Smallwood just came to mind that he should definitely be rostered after noticing he was available in some leagues I am in, most notably a PPR/points per touch league.

 TZM

 

CanaBuc

Footballguy
Ricardo Louis is mine and am starting him. Good rapport with Hogan who has targeted him on 24% of his throws. Britt is bad and banged up. He has good measurable at 6 foot 2 215 with a sub 4.5 40 time. Expect Cleveland to be behind against Houston who no longer have Watt or Mercilus giving him more time to throw to his receivers and not just dump off to DJJ.

Louis has 17 targets past 2 games and another 6 the game before. He stated in an interview he had been training with some elite hideouts working on his route running  etc.

So while everyone chases JUJU or Williams...I will go for the defacto number1 target in his team who will see plenty of garbage time.

 

zamboni

Footballguy
Elijah McGuire with Powell out and Forte probably not healthy (or effective) enough to carry the load. Could be a lot of dump offs to McGuire if the Pats go up big and if they don’t, McGuire may be the lead guy to keep the chains moving. 

 
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heckmanm

Footballguy
Parker active per the injury thread, so temper enthusiasm for Stills. (If Cutler being active wasn't already doing that for you)

 

Widbil83

Footballguy
Good call on Lewis.  I've gobbled him up for free in a couple leagues he was available this week.  Won't be rolling him out this week but just have a feeling he could be used a lot more by the Pats in the future. Definitely a high upside speculative add.

 

tombonneau

Footballguy
Elijah McGuire with Powell out and Forte probably not healthy (or effective) enough to carry the load. Could be a lot of dump offs to McGuire if the Pats go up big and if they don’t, McGuire may be the lead guy to keep the chains moving. 
This is a good one. Though I expect the Jets to try to pass vs the Pats depleted secondary. Rowe and Gilmore both out.

 

RushHour

Footballguy
In deeper leagues if you are hit with byes/injuries and need a flier, I'm a bit intrigued by Kasen Williams. Louis obviously the better choice, but Williams showed some rapport with Hogan last week....Britt out.... stranger things have happened.

 

Hankmoody

Footballguy
Ricardo Louis is mine and am starting him. Good rapport with Hogan who has targeted him on 24% of his throws. Britt is bad and banged up. He has good measurable at 6 foot 2 215 with a sub 4.5 40 time. Expect Cleveland to be behind against Houston who no longer have Watt or Mercilus giving him more time to throw to his receivers and not just dump off to DJJ.

Louis has 17 targets past 2 games and another 6 the game before. He stated in an interview he had been training with some elite hideouts working on his route running  etc.

So while everyone chases JUJU or Williams...I will go for the defacto number1 target in his team who will see plenty of garbage time.
It showed because Hogan had all kinds of problems locating him

 

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