LB Tiers 2013 / Version 3.0 Updated May 9 (1 Viewer)

[Jene Bramel]

These tiers will obviously change significantly between now and August. But it’s never too early to take a stand and start sorting players into tiers.

I’m going to use this thread to update the linebacker tiers through the summer (they’ll also be translated into my rankings starting in early May after the NFL Draft). Each update will have its own post in the thread, with later posts including a notation for changes from the previous version. I’ll link the post to each version here to keep things (somewhat) organized.

For the purposes of the linebacker tiers, assume a league with 60+ LB rostered, 25+ starting LB, a balanced scoring system (about 4:1 sack to tackle) and a relatively strong upside bias.

Discussion is welcome and encouraged.

Version 1.0 (Post 2) -- Post Coaching Changes / Pre Free Agency

Version 2.0 (Post 68) -- Post Free Agency / Pre Draft

Version 3.0 -- Post-Draft (Full feature w/ commentary)

 

[Jene Bramel]

The linebacker position felt fairly straightforward this time last year. There were some every-down considerations up in the air and a decent crop of linebacker prospects in the draft, but I thought the tiers were on stable ground early in the process.

The regular season threw a King Kong sized monkey wrench into the mix. Injuries shook up the top tiers early and often and by midseason, just about any warm body had been thrust into fantasy consideration.

We’re still seeing the fallout. Many players are returning from major injury. Lots of marginal talent will be changing teams, and nearly every team will have an attractive open opportunity on their depth chart. It’s still not certain whether some of the breakout young players can sustain last year’s pace. And there will be another interesting group of prospects to sift through after the draft.

So…the Tier Jumper tier is a mine field. It’s also certain that a handful of players in that tier will end up in the top 30. It’s also certain that talent may not rise to the top in that particular tier. I’m going to separate the names I think I’d target, but don’t get too enamored with any of them yet.

++++++++++++

Elite LB1Luke Kuechly

Derrick Johnson

James Laurinaitis

Daryl Washington

Elite LB1 Upside

Paul Posluszny

D’Qwell Jackson

Sean Lee

NaVorro Bowman

Patrick Willis

Bobby Wagner

Chad Greenway

Desmond Bishop

Colin McCarthy

Lawrence Timmons

Karlos Dansby

Brian Cushing

High Floor LB2

Lavonte David

Sean Weatherspoon

Bruce Carter

Jerod Mayo

Curtis Lofton

Risk-Reward LB2

Zach Brown

Donald Butler

Vontaze Burfict

Jerrell Freeman

Kelvin Sheppard

Wesley Woodyard

Thomas Davis

Miles Burris

Rush LB2

Von Miller

Aldon Smith

Mario Williams – pending classification

Terrell Suggs – pending classification

Clay Matthews

High Floor LB3

Lance Briggs

London Fletcher

Stephen Tulloch

KJ Wright

DeMeco Ryans

Perry Riley

Matchup Depth

Akeem Ayers

Tamba Hali

Justin Houston

Jo-Lonn Dunbar

David Harris

Brandon Graham – pending classification

Jabaal Sheard

James Harrison

AJ Hawk

Stephen Nicholas

Tier Jumpers Class A

Mason Foster

Thomas Howard FA

Dannell Ellerbee FA

Donta Hightower

Jon Beason

Demario Davis

Mychal Kendricks

Jameel McClain

Pat Angerer

Paul Kruger FA – pending classification

Tier Jumpers Class B

Daryl Smith FA

Phillip Wheeler FA

James-Michael Johnson

Akeem Dent

Brian Urlacher FA

Nigel Bradham

Nick Barnett FA

DJ Williams

Michael Boley FA

Rey Maualuga FA

Rolando McClain

Anthony Spencer FA – pending classification

Emmanuel Lamur

Jacquian Williams

Mark Herzlich

DeAndre Levy FA

David Hawthorne

Darryl Sharpton

Larry Grant FA

Dynasty Stash

Sean Spence

Jonas Mouton

Vinny Curry

DraftWatch

Alec Ogletree

Arthur Brown

Kevin Minter

Manti Te’o

Khaseem Greene

Zaviar Gooden

Kevin Reddick

Sio Moore

Jarvis Jones – pending classification

Jelani Jenkins

Jamie Collins

Kiko Alonso

Nico Johnson

 

[BearsFan]

Trent Cole?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Trent Cole?

In the matchup tier if you like his fit in Davis' defense. I haven't rewatched much 2012 tape yet, but I'm leery about how much explosiveness he has left and how he'll transition to a two point stance. Has some upside in a Chris Clemons - Adalius Thomas - Charles Haley - Tamba Hali type Predator/Elephant role, but I'm not comfortable with the fit yet. And it's possible that he'll rotate with Brandon Graham and Vinny Curry in some packages in the short term.

 

[BuckeyeChaos]

just to be clear, tier jumpers are low floor, high potential types?

 

[Jene Bramel]

just to be clear, tier jumpers are low floor, high potential types?

Most of them, yes. A few -- like Mason Foster, Mychal Kendricks, Jon Beason, Dannell Ellerbe, Daryl Smith -- are players that I'm not comfortable projecting to a clear role, snap count, etc. yet to put them in a tier.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

With a 4 to 1 sack to tackle ratio I would have thought this guy would be ranked somewhere since he had six sacks last year in limited playing time.

He was a first round pick and I think he's up for more PT this year.

My link

Whitney Mercilus

#59 LB

6' 4", 257 lbs

Houston Texans

Birth DateJuly 21, 1990 (Age: 22)

Not even a dynasty stash mention?

 

[The Comedian]

Thanks for this Jene, comes at a critical time in many of my leagues with RFA stuff opening.Not a Brandon Spikes fan? Do you think his snaps will decrease as compared to 2012?

 

[BuckeyeChaos]

Jo Lonn Dunbar really seemed to come on last year and the D-coordinator singled him out as some he had high hopes for. Is he possibly in a better tier than this?

 

[Jene Bramel]

With a 4 to 1 sack to tackle ratio I would have thought this guy would be ranked somewhere since he had six sacks last year in limited playing time.He was a first round pick and I think he's up for more PT this year.My linkWhitney Mercilus#59 LB6' 4", 257 lbsHouston TexansBirth DateJuly 21, 1990 (Age: 22)Not even a dynasty stash mention?

There's a good argument that he belongs in the matchup tier along with a few other rush OLBs.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Not a Brandon Spikes fan? Do you think his snaps will decrease as compared to 2012?

Still like Spikes but I've been burned too many times by Belichick game plan and durability issues. Hightower seemed to gain favor in subpackages toward the end of 2012. Spikes would be a marginal matchup play / tier jumper stash prospect in deeper leagues, but he won't be in my top 60 until he's clearly an every down player.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Jo Lonn Dunbar really seemed to come on last year and the D-coordinator singled him out as some he had high hopes for. Is he possibly in a better tier than this?

Possibly, yes. Not ready to roster him as a LB4 or better despite his 2012 performance despite the DC comments until we get through the draft without a challenger.

 

[SeanTaylor21]

Jene, how close is Keenan Robinson to making your dynasty stash list? I know he's coming off of a serious pectoral injury, but London is gonna have to give it up sometime. Seems like he's doing all the right things to get a shot when that day comes.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Jene, how close is Keenan Robinson to making your dynasty stash list? I know he's coming off of a serious pectoral injury, but London is gonna have to give it up sometime. Seems like he's doing all the right things to get a shot when that day comes.

Still like him. Got more looks at OLB than I expected last year, though that's not a bad fit for him. If there's indication that he'll see reps inside in practice again, he'll warrant a mention.

 

[lyon812]

With a 4 to 1 sack to tackle ratio I would have thought this guy would be ranked somewhere since he had six sacks last year in limited playing time.He was a first round pick and I think he's up for more PT this year.My linkWhitney Mercilus#59 LB6' 4", 257 lbsHouston TexansBirth DateJuly 21, 1990 (Age: 22)Not even a dynasty stash mention?

From ProFootball Focus: Notes: With Brooks Reed and Connor Barwin already returning at outside linebacker, Mercilus had the luxury of easing into the lineup this season. He saw spot duty before picking up four starts in the second half of the year. Like Reed and Barwin, Mercilus was unable to consistently provide pressure off the edge, so don’t be fooled by his six sacks. He picked up only 21 pressures on 310 pass rushes, good for a pass rush grade of -13.7 and Pass Rushing Productivity of 6.0 (26th out of 32 qualifying 3-4 outside linebackers).

 

[saintfool]

Sean Spence

pretty brutal injury(s) from all indications. i liked him a lot coming into the season last year too. the problem is twofold: (a) the injury recovery itself and (b) Foote played pretty well for an old man.he's a late season waiver wire decision because i don't think he'll get any playing time.

 

[Bdub]

With the release of Bart Scott, I'm guessing the Demario Davis man love will on this board will be on the rise.... Jene, what are the odds that Davis becomes a beast this year (LB2+)?

 

[jacobo_moses]

Jene I also ask about Demario Davis? Does he go to LB2 High Floor with Scott gone. I think sideline to sideline he racks up more tackles then David Harris does!Also with Nick Barnett released and say BUF goes to 3-4 and Bradham goes to an ILB spot. Where would you put him then?

 

[jacobo_moses]

And why so low on Donald Butler? I thought you had him higher last year? Why so low on him now.

 

[Shane Falco]

Interested in opinions on Burris and why he is so high. He was rated one of the worst LBs in the league last year by PFF (?). Another case of a B. Ruud type player? Good fantasy stats but poor player?

 

[KellysHeroes]

still high on McCarthy, he didn't show much last yrElite LB1 Upside.....Colin McCarthy

 

[Jene Bramel]

Jene I also ask about Demario Davis? Does he go to LB2 High Floor with Scott gone. I think sideline to sideline he racks up more tackles then David Harris does!Also with Nick Barnett released and say BUF goes to 3-4 and Bradham goes to an ILB spot. Where would you put him then?

Long way to go before Davis locks down an every-down role next to David Harris but the signs are good. If he earns that role, he'd be a Risk-Reward LB2 / Matchup LB3 until we see how much progress he's made in his overall game. He could certainly have better upside than that.Bradham is a favorite going into free agency and draft for one ILB spot. He is in the Tier Jumpers Class B group right now.

And why so low on Donald Butler? I thought you had him higher last year? Why so low on him now.

I did have him higher last year. Durability has been a problem and I don't think he played nearly as well last year as he'd shown the year before. Both affect the evaluation process and where he slots in my tiers.He's not an elite tier player for me any longer, but remember these are tiers. The risk-reward LB2 tier includes players that could finish in the top ten but have a lower floor than the other players I might rank between 10 and 30.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Interested in opinions on Burris and why he is so high. He was rated one of the worst LBs in the league last year by PFF (?). Another case of a B. Ruud type player? Good fantasy stats but poor player?

He's straddling the line between the Risk-Reward LB2 and Tier Jumper tiers. The coaching staff had praise for him last year and consider him a viable MLB option. Things could well change after the draft, but the depth chart sets up nicely for him right now. His slot is all opportunity based, though, as I agree there's not much to get excited about with his on-field play.

still high on McCarthy, he didn't show much last yrElite LB1 Upside.....Colin McCarthy

I think McCarthy was only near 100% for part of Week 1 last year. The emergence of Zach Brown and possibility that the Titans replace Jordan Babineaux with a similarly strong tackling safety are concerns, but I think McCarthy's stat line when healthy is much closer to what we saw in 2011 than 2012.

 

[jacobo_moses]

Thanks Jene Keep up the Good Work.

 

[jacobo_moses]

If Lavonte David somehow got moved to the MLB spot could he be an Elite LB1? Or would a position change not really change your outlook on David? Lavonte David finished as the no 12 LB in my 32 team Dyn league.

 

[JoeSteeler]

Sean Spence

pretty brutal injury(s) from all indications. i liked him a lot coming into the season last year too. the problem is twofold: (a) the injury recovery itself and (b) Foote played pretty well for an old man.he's a late season waiver wire decision because i don't think he'll get any playing time.

Foote is a FA but there is a decent chance he comes back.

 

[saintfool]

Sean Spence

pretty brutal injury(s) from all indications. i liked him a lot coming into the season last year too. the problem is twofold: (a) the injury recovery itself and (b) Foote played pretty well for an old man.he's a late season waiver wire decision because i don't think he'll get any playing time.

Foote is a FA but there is a decent chance he comes back.

i would be really surprised if Foote was not brought back.

 

[jacobo_moses]

If Lavonte David somehow got moved to the MLB spot could he be an Elite LB1? Or would a position change not really change your outlook on David? Lavonte David finished as the no 12 LB in my 32 team Dyn league.

Has anyone seen Dr. Jene to answer this question!!!

 

[Jene Bramel]

If Lavonte David somehow got moved to the MLB spot could he be an Elite LB1? Or would a position change not really change your outlook on David? Lavonte David finished as the no 12 LB in my 32 team Dyn league.

Has anyone seen Dr. Jene to answer this question!!!

I think it's very unlikely to happen but he'd move up in my tiers if he were to be moved to MLB.

 

[TheBottomLine]

Russell Allen? Dude had 131 tackles last year.

 

[cheese]

Are you projections for Burfict assuming MLB or WLB? Or is he in that tier regardless?

 

[Gary Davenport]

Great stuff Doc.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Dynasty StashJonas MoutonI've held on to that guy for 3 yrs now, I thought for sure he'd get his shot last yr with all the injuries but he still couldn't get on the field. Hes pretty much worthless

 

[Bracie Smathers]

With a 4 to 1 sack to tackle ratio I would have thought this guy would be ranked somewhere since he had six sacks last year in limited playing time.

He was a first round pick and I think he's up for more PT this year.

My link

Whitney Mercilus

#59 LB

6' 4", 257 lbs

Houston Texans

Birth DateJuly 21, 1990 (Age: 22)

Not even a dynasty stash mention?

From ProFootball Focus: Notes: With Brooks Reed and Connor Barwin already returning at outside linebacker, Mercilus had the luxury of easing into the lineup this season. He saw spot duty before picking up four starts in the second half of the year. Like Reed and Barwin, Mercilus was unable to consistently provide pressure off the edge, so don’t be fooled by his six sacks. He picked up only 21 pressures on 310 pass rushes, good for a pass rush grade of -13.7 and Pass Rushing Productivity of 6.0 (26th out of 32 qualifying 3-4 outside linebackers).

Maybe, maybe not.My link

... Outside linebacker Brooks Reed could potentially move inside, according to Texans coach Gary Kubiak at the NFL Scouting Combine.

“I think we have to continue to look that way,” Kubiak said in response to a question about Reed possibly making the switch. “He’s very capable of being a stack player… playing inside in our 3-4. Yes, that could happen.

... One of the Texans’ strongest players, Reed was a defensive end in college after arriving at Arizona as an H-back. His only inside linebacker experience since high school consists of a scant number of reps late last season as the Texans dealt with an avalanche of injuries at the position.

NFL analyst Adam Caplan of Sirius/XM Radio said at the Combine that Reed’s motor and the fact that he was successful early in his career are positive signs for his ability to handle a full-time switch.

... notable example is former New England Patriots linebacker Tedy Bruschi. Like Reed, Bruschi played defensive end at the University of Arizona (1992-95), then started his NFL career as an outside linebacker. He was moved inside after five seasons and went on to become a two-time All-Pro and three-time Super Bowl winner.

“It could work,” Caplan said. ...

Brian Cushing, Darryl Sharpton and reserve/future signing Mike Mohamed are the only inside linebackers under contract with the Texans for 2013. Veterans Bradie James, Tim Dobbins and Barrett Ruud are all impending free agents. And Cushing (knee) and Sharpton (hip) are both coming off season-ending injuries, although Sharpton declared himself 100 percent healthy earlier this week.

If the Texans re-sign Connor Barwin, who’s in line become an unrestricted free agent, they would have three starting-caliber outside linebackers in Barwin, Reed and 2012 first-round pick Whitney Mercilus, who had 6.0 sacks as a rookie. Moving Reed inside, if it works, could alleviate a logjam at one position while addressing a glaring deficiency at another.

“You’ve always got to have some versatility with one player or two players in various situations when you come across like what we did last year,” Kubiak said. “Depending on what happens with our football team moving forward right now with Connor and some other things, I think Brooks will always give us some flexibility.”

The Texans have used high picks on, Cushing (first round pick), Reed (second round pick, and Mercilus (first round pick).Mercilus had six sacks in limited action last year, Reed had two in twelve games when he was heavily used.

They like Reed at SAM but they have a pass rushing first round draft pick in Whitney who they can keep on the bench or they can move Reed inside where they might have a need if they allow one of their free agent inside linebackers walk which is a high probability unless they want to throw money at them and sit Whitney.

Then factor in the injuries suffered to the inside linebackes in addition to the highly-likely free agent departure and the idea of moving Reed inside, where he has the strength and ability, makes sense.

Bottom line, Whitney was a first round pick who flashed pass rush skill. The Texans can allow him to be a situational player or keep him and Reed and Cushing on the field where they can keep their best players on the field as starters.

In any case I think Whitney will see more action this year and likely will find a way to land a starting job.

 

[MindCrime]

Dynasty StashJonas MoutonI've held on to that guy for 3 yrs now, I thought for sure he'd get his shot last yr with all the injuries but he still couldn't get on the field. Hes pretty much worthless

He's only been in the league for 2 years, did you draft him when he was in college?Mouton spent his rookie year (2011) on IR, so 2012 was basically his rookie year. Worthy of a "stash" on a LB needy team, IMO.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Russell Allen? Dude had 131 tackles last year.

Waiting to see what the Jags have in mind at the OLB positions. Allen needs to play every down to hold value. If the Jags don't bring in any competition for him over the next two months, he'll move into the LB3 tiers.

Are you projections for Burfict assuming MLB or WLB? Or is he in that tier regardless?

I'm assuming he plays every down, most likely at MLB. Won't surprise me to see the Bengals try to address the LB spots in the draft or in FA (Howard or another vet), though, and that could shuffle the slots and his upside.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Also, add Nate Irving to the stash list again. Mike Klis has reported recently that the Broncos may be leaning toward using Irving in the middle. He'll have to play well and play every down to be a top 40 fantasy option, but he may get that chance if Denver doesn't find a vet/rookie they like in the coming weeks.

 

[worrierking]

Also, add Nate Irving to the stash list again. Mike Klis has reported recently that the Broncos may be leaning toward using Irving in the middle. He'll have to play well and play every down to be a top 40 fantasy option, but he may get that chance if Denver doesn't find a vet/rookie they like in the coming weeks.

Will they be bringing DJ Williams back? I assume not. If he leaves, any possible landing spots?

 

[5-ish Finkle]

Man, I finally had quit Nate Irving long about Week 11 of '12. Don't try and rope me back in, dammit.

ENABLER!

 

[Azhais]

What's the outlook on Junior Galette as a potential three down OLB?

 

[ADP]

Is Brad Jones totally off the radar now with Bishop coming back?

 

[MindCrime]

Is Brad Jones totally off the radar now with Bishop coming back?

Brad Jones is a free agent, should get looks from some LB needy teams.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Is Brad Jones totally off the radar now with Bishop coming back?

Brad Jones is a free agent, should get looks from some LB needy teams.

Brad Jones isn't very good. He is a passable backup, but lacks the instinct to be a true starter. I would suggest passing on him, unless he happens to fall into a situation with some desperate team.

 

[ADP]

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/brad-jones-expected-to-be-a-hot-commodity-in-free-agency-bn93jn4-196798081.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

In the buildup to NFL free agency, one player among the Green Bay Packers' group of soon-to-be unrestricted free agents who has flown under the radar is linebacker Brad Jones.

Very little has been written about his future, but with the negotiating period for free agents open since late Friday night, Jones has been drawing interest. According to his agent, Josh Wright, eight teams have been in contact with him regarding Jones.

Free agents cannot sign a contract until 3 p.m. Tuesday, but the three-day negotiating window leading up to the official start of free agency is a good indicator of the market for some players. That eight teams have contacted Jones speaks to the ground he has gained since the start of last season.

Jones, a core special teams player the last four seasons and occasional starter, became a full-time starter at inside linebacker after season-ending injuries to Desmond Bishop (hamstring) and D.J. Smith (knee). It wasn't long before Jones was playing three-down football, serving on running downs and as the lone linebacker when the defense went to its dime package.

In all, Jones started 10 of 16 games and finished with 77 tackles, two sacks, four pass breakups and a forced fumble. He was particularly effective in goal-line situations and played physically given his 6-foot-3, 242-pound frame.

The Packers still have some concern about their inside linebacker position because Bishop's return from surgery to reattach his hamstring muscle isn't a slam dunk and Smith's return in time for training camp is in question. It is one reason so many people have predicted the Packers will select an inside linebacker in the draft.

In Jones, someone would be getting a versatile linebacker who will have no problem learning a new defense. He has played both inside and outside and at the least can be a very good addition on special teams.

Whether the Packers value that as much as others or feel for salary-cap reasons they can't compete is something that will be known soon.

 

[corpcow]

Thoughts on James Harrison if he does/doesn't return to the Steelers? Still worth rostering as an LB4/5 depth kind of play?

 

[saintfool]

What's the outlook on Junior Galette as a potential three down OLB?

pass rush specialist, imo. i don't think he has much experience playing anything other than DE.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/brad-jones-expected-to-be-a-hot-commodity-in-free-agency-bn93jn4-196798081.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

In the buildup to NFL free agency, one player among the Green Bay Packers' group of soon-to-be unrestricted free agents who has flown under the radar is linebacker Brad Jones.Very little has been written about his future, but with the negotiating period for free agents open since late Friday night, Jones has been drawing interest. According to his agent, Josh Wright, eight teams have been in contact with him regarding Jones.Free agents cannot sign a contract until 3 p.m. Tuesday, but the three-day negotiating window leading up to the official start of free agency is a good indicator of the market for some players. That eight teams have contacted Jones speaks to the ground he has gained since the start of last season.Jones, a core special teams player the last four seasons and occasional starter, became a full-time starter at inside linebacker after season-ending injuries to Desmond Bishop (hamstring) and D.J. Smith (knee). It wasn't long before Jones was playing three-down football, serving on running downs and as the lone linebacker when the defense went to its dime package.In all, Jones started 10 of 16 games and finished with 77 tackles, two sacks, four pass breakups and a forced fumble. He was particularly effective in goal-line situations and played physically given his 6-foot-3, 242-pound frame.The Packers still have some concern about their inside linebacker position because Bishop's return from surgery to reattach his hamstring muscle isn't a slam dunk and Smith's return in time for training camp is in question. It is one reason so many people have predicted the Packers will select an inside linebacker in the draft.In Jones, someone would be getting a versatile linebacker who will have no problem learning a new defense. He has played both inside and outside and at the least can be a very good addition on special teams.Whether the Packers value that as much as others or feel for salary-cap reasons they can't compete is something that will be known soon.

The best things it says about him:- versatile LB- has played both inside & outside- at the least can be a good addition on special teamsAs noted earlier, not likely to become meaningful.

 

[Jene Bramel]

What's the outlook on Junior Galette as a potential three down OLB?

Need to see him play from a two point stance, but early thought would be marginal matchup LB3 in big play leagues only.

Is Brad Jones totally off the radar now with Bishop coming back?

He's off the radar until/unless he finds himself in an every-down role without much competition for tackles. Chances of that happening are pretty slim, I'd think.

Thoughts on James Harrison if he does/doesn't return to the Steelers? Still worth rostering as an LB4/5 depth kind of play?

I've been down on Harrison's fantasy value for two years. Matchup play only for me, even if he lands in a favorable spot.

 

[Young 8]

Does Ellerbe replace Dansby in the Elite LB1 Upside tier now ?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Does Ellerbe replace Dansby in the Elite LB1 Upside tier now ?

Too early to say. I'm not certain I know how the Ellerbe/Wheeler/Burnett/Misi group plays out. Could see some 3-4. Could see some subpackage rotations.For now, put Ellerbe in the risk-reward LB2 group, Wheeler in a LB3 tier and watch the press conferences to glean some more information.