shadyridr
Footballguy
you don't think he'll be motivated just a little for philly?
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Lesean McCoy? How concerned are we? (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Sabertooth
- Start date
Banged-up Bills backfield could be without McCoy for rest of month:
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/jason-la-canfora/25335035/banged-up-bills-backfield-could-be-without-mccoy-for-rest-of-month
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/jason-la-canfora/25335035/banged-up-bills-backfield-could-be-without-mccoy-for-rest-of-month
VikingFrog
Footballguy
McCoy practicing on a limited basis yesterday and Bloom has his point projection pretty high? Do you know something we don't know Bloom?
Joe BuscagliaVerified account@JoeBuscaglia
Tyrod Taylor, LeSean McCoy, Marcell Dareus, and Sammy Watkins were all out there practicing today #Bills
Shutout
Footballguy
NOt sure how we know that. He really hasn't been healthy from the hammy all year. No saying he is the guy we knew and loved 3 years ago but he might pleasantly surprise.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
True. I think he showed to run east-west too much like last year early on before he reinjured his hamstring.
If he's healthy I think you have to start him. What other options does buffalo have? Why wouldn't you start him based off the sheer volume he will likely get. Williams won't be playing this weekend IMO, and I think two days in a row of practice indicates McCoy is likely to go Sunday
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Sounds like Shady is playing this week.
Check out @CutonDime25's Tweet: https://twitter.com/CutonDime25/status/654989294260592640?s=09
If he's true to his word and not playing until he's 100%, if he plays this week that's great news for McCoy owners and Bills fan.
Check out @CutonDime25's Tweet: https://twitter.com/CutonDime25/status/654989294260592640?s=09
If he's true to his word and not playing until he's 100%, if he plays this week that's great news for McCoy owners and Bills fan.
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
Adam Caplan @caplannfl 33s33 seconds ago
#Bills listing RB LeSean McCoy (hamstring) as probable vs. #Bengals So he's back earlier than expected from latest hamstring issue.
Son of a F'ing BEACH. They're rushing this guy back which will probably F up his hammy for the rest of the season. Williams is a concussion away from probably ending his season so he's on the pine and the other guys suck. Cramping my style. Now I'll have to drop an RB, take him off fantasy IR. Maybe I should just drop his ###.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
starting him, shrug.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Yep.
But then my other options are Jamaal Charles, dexter McCluster and Denard Robinson.
tone1oc
Footballguy
He has around 7.6M cap hit, of which 2.6M is dead money. Most of the big money was paid this year. The 5M in cap relief could be on play as they are less than a million under cap for 2016, which I believe is set to raise some.
GoBirds
Footballguy
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
As a Bills fan, not happy at all that he's playing. Calf injuries are very easy to aggravate or even fully tear if they're not fully healed. The Bills are being very shortsighted by not forcing McCoy to sit one more week. Better to miss him for one more game and lose than to lose McCoy for the whole season or have him hobbled all year long.
Dark Matter
Footballguy
VikingFrog
Footballguy
Huh? He has a $13M dead cap hit next year (could lower it to just over $5M if they make him a post June 1 cut, but they'd still have to pay the rest in future years).
Dark Matter
Footballguy
VikingFrog
Footballguy
Is McCoy a sell high before we find out his hamstring exploded on the plane to London?
Joking, but what are people doing with him? He's my RB3 and not exactly the epitome of health and hadn't done much until Sunday. I feel like he's got some good value right now, but I also feel like he could do well against Jax this week.
Joking, but what are people doing with him? He's my RB3 and not exactly the epitome of health and hadn't done much until Sunday. I feel like he's got some good value right now, but I also feel like he could do well against Jax this week.
tone1oc
Footballguy
I was using overthecap.com numbers and that is what they say. And yes, June 1st cut. I should of clarified.
Shutout
Footballguy
Could be that he's just finally healthy for the first time and will be a good FF player. I mean, what else do the Bills have to lean on right now? Good against softer teams. Tough play against good teams.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Agree. I'm not going to sit here and pretend McCoy is going to be a top 5 RB or anything like the old days but he's finally healthy and can be used for what buffalo traded him for. The bills have had a bad injury epidemic this year and McCoy is all they have. I'm excited to see him with Taylor. Teams are going to have a hard time determining how to cover a rushing QB and a RB out of the backfield who can catch the ball fairly decently. I think he should be a fairly solid rb2 moving forward unless Williams vultures carries from him.
bostonfred
Footballguy
In three only partially healthy games this year Mccoy has 297 yards and a touchdown. He also had a 26 yard, 1 td game that he left partway through before missing two weeks.
In those three games, he's run 49 times for 220 yards. That's 4.5 yards per carry, including over 5 ypc in his last two full games.
In the two Karlos Williams games, he had 203 total yards. Again, while playing with a bad hammy.
I don't know why anyone would say he's having a bad season. He's doing exactly what people hoped, he just got hurt early.
In those three games, he's run 49 times for 220 yards. That's 4.5 yards per carry, including over 5 ypc in his last two full games.
In the two Karlos Williams games, he had 203 total yards. Again, while playing with a bad hammy.
I don't know why anyone would say he's having a bad season. He's doing exactly what people hoped, he just got hurt early.
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
Getting hurt? Of course not. Racking up a hundred plus yards a game with a decent chance of a touchdown? Actually, that's pretty much exactly what I was hoping for.humpback said:
He's only racked up a hundred plus (total) yards in a game once this season. Also, his two good rushing games happened to be at home against two of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL (ypc).
You can make anyone look better by cherry picking, but the reality is he has a 3.9 ypc and has been outperformed by a 5th round rookie. Sure, he's been injured, but that doesn't change the fact that he's been disappointing so far.
GoBirds
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
It's amazing how differently people can see the same situation. Going into last week I thought Mccoy was a clear rb1. He put up rb1 numbers. I feel like he's a number one back the rest of the season. We'll see how that pans out.
I understand the allure of the rookie with good measurables, too. But the fantasy community systemically overreacts in these situations. Any time a rookie does well, people project him to do even better going forward. Any time a veteran has a bad game, people say he's all done.
Mccoy had 87, 116, 26 and 94 yards in four games this year. He left the 26 yard game with an injury that he said he tried to play through, doctors confirmed he had reaggravated the injury, and he missed two more weeks. That sure seems like an outlier to me. That's not cherry picking. It's understanding what actually happened instead of box score scouting.
People also point to his disappointing 2014, and say he's done. If anyone has watched Demarco Murray this year, I think we can see the pros and cons of the chip Kelly run game. And Mccoy still had 313 carries for over 1300 yards at 4.2 ypc last year. It's not like he was bad. He just wasn't worth the number one overall pick that he was frequently taken with.
Meanwhile, people love Karlos Williams, but his 6 rushes for 21 yards against the Patriots isn't the reason. humpback says they're one of the worst ypc defenses, but it was a small sample size. It was probably his very impressive 12 for 110 against the train wreck dolphins.
I don't think anyone projects him to have a 3.5 ypc, or a 9 ypc. So let's look at his other two games. 6 for 55 and a td against the Colts. Monster game. Maybe 9 ypc really is the norm. So how did Williams do in his only career start? 18 rushes for 40 yards. Oof. Maybe 3.5 is generous.
Its a small sample size. He's looked really good so far. No question. If he were the starter with no competition, he'd be a legit rb1. Even with mccoy there, he's earned a significant role. He's had a touchdown in every game he's ever played. He's a very good young player.
But he's not going to sustain the very best of those numbers. He won't be a 2 ypc guy or a 9 ypc guy. We all know that, but we get blinded by the upside.
There's a clear starter - the veteran, the better pass blocker and receiver, the guy who can run inside and out and has the trust of the coaches because he knows what to do in different game situations. There's an exciting rookie who deserves a lot of touches but is clearly the backup. And there's an offense that is ground and pound, with a good defense and a mobile qb. There's an opportunity for Mccoy to be a rb1, and still have Williams be a spot startable rb2. Barring injury, i really don't see how this plays out any differently. Both guys have been hurt already this year, so there's certainly value to owning both.
Imo, Mccoy looks poised to continue putting up about a hundred yards a week with a chance of a touchdown. And from the reactions on this board I think he's a great buy low. I get the other side, I just don't think things really work that way.
I understand the allure of the rookie with good measurables, too. But the fantasy community systemically overreacts in these situations. Any time a rookie does well, people project him to do even better going forward. Any time a veteran has a bad game, people say he's all done.
Mccoy had 87, 116, 26 and 94 yards in four games this year. He left the 26 yard game with an injury that he said he tried to play through, doctors confirmed he had reaggravated the injury, and he missed two more weeks. That sure seems like an outlier to me. That's not cherry picking. It's understanding what actually happened instead of box score scouting.
People also point to his disappointing 2014, and say he's done. If anyone has watched Demarco Murray this year, I think we can see the pros and cons of the chip Kelly run game. And Mccoy still had 313 carries for over 1300 yards at 4.2 ypc last year. It's not like he was bad. He just wasn't worth the number one overall pick that he was frequently taken with.
Meanwhile, people love Karlos Williams, but his 6 rushes for 21 yards against the Patriots isn't the reason. humpback says they're one of the worst ypc defenses, but it was a small sample size. It was probably his very impressive 12 for 110 against the train wreck dolphins.
I don't think anyone projects him to have a 3.5 ypc, or a 9 ypc. So let's look at his other two games. 6 for 55 and a td against the Colts. Monster game. Maybe 9 ypc really is the norm. So how did Williams do in his only career start? 18 rushes for 40 yards. Oof. Maybe 3.5 is generous.
Its a small sample size. He's looked really good so far. No question. If he were the starter with no competition, he'd be a legit rb1. Even with mccoy there, he's earned a significant role. He's had a touchdown in every game he's ever played. He's a very good young player.
But he's not going to sustain the very best of those numbers. He won't be a 2 ypc guy or a 9 ypc guy. We all know that, but we get blinded by the upside.
There's a clear starter - the veteran, the better pass blocker and receiver, the guy who can run inside and out and has the trust of the coaches because he knows what to do in different game situations. There's an exciting rookie who deserves a lot of touches but is clearly the backup. And there's an offense that is ground and pound, with a good defense and a mobile qb. There's an opportunity for Mccoy to be a rb1, and still have Williams be a spot startable rb2. Barring injury, i really don't see how this plays out any differently. Both guys have been hurt already this year, so there's certainly value to owning both.
Imo, Mccoy looks poised to continue putting up about a hundred yards a week with a chance of a touchdown. And from the reactions on this board I think he's a great buy low. I get the other side, I just don't think things really work that way.
I'm not going to bother refuting your cherry picking again, you'll just keep giving excuses for why you think you're justified, just like you'll point out Williams had a monster game against the "train wreck Dolphins", without adding that McCoy was putrid in the 3 qtrs. he played in the same game.
The bottom line is that it takes some serious mental gymnastics to say that this is exactly what owners hoped for McCoy. He isn't healthy, isn't getting the touches expected, isn't putting up the FF points expected, has legit competition, etc. That could change going forward, but reality is reality.
bostonfred
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
The game where Mccoy reaggravated his injury? He hurt his hamstring worse during the game. He said so, the coaches said so, the doctors said so. If "he was putrid", he had a good excuse.
While not healthy, and dealing with legit competition, he's had 69 touches for 323 yards and 2 tds in four games. Averaging over 17 touches per game (20, 18, 11 and 19; the 11 touch game was the one where he got hurt). About a hundred yards with a chance of a touchdown in every game (again, except the one he reinjured his hammy). Those are his actual numbers. Whether Williams played or not. I don't know why it's controversial to say he's been doing OK. I honestly have a hard time seeing an argument that he's playing poorly. I can understand being upset that he got hurt, but what's not to like about his actual performance so far?
Yes, that game. Case in point, you excuse his awful performance because of injury, but blast Williams for his game against the Giants without mentioning that he was concussed. Weird how that keeps happening. Also, there's no reason to put putrid in quotes there- a 1.5 ypc against a "train wreck" team is indeed putrid, even if he wasn't 100%.
Averaging 17 touches per game is exactly what you expected? One out of the 5 rushing TDs from the RBs is exactly what you expected? A 3.9 ypc is exactly what you expected?
Again, injuries have certainly played a role, but you might be the only person who thinks this is going according to plan. It certainly doesn't match up with his adp, projections, etc.
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bostonfred
Footballguy
I'm not "blasting" anyone.
I didn't say you blasted him, I said you blasted his performance (without mentioning that he was concussed). Just pointing out your obvious double standard.
mikel0254
Footballguy
Was Williams concussed the whole game? Doubt it. His second to last touch he caught a beautiful TD pass. Nobody know for certain, but he certainly looked healthy at that point. Isn't it possible he was concussed on his last touch with 3 min to go? And if that's the case, you can't really use being concussed as an excuse either way because it was at the very end of the game.
Shutout
Footballguy
Bottom line is Shady is playing this week. Williams is not. That's the part of this story I would focus on for now.
Fred, very good post above, btw. It's easy to see who is looking at the whole picture and who is hung up on a statement and injecting their own immeasurable opinion into it.
BlueDredSo
Footballguy
What are you two even arguing about? It's really pretty silly. Do us all a favor and please move on. As expected so far? Who cares? Focus on the situation going forward.
I don't even own McCoy but am considering trading for him as I think his value can only go up from here as long as he gets healthier. It's no given but I expect the Bills to use caution with him throughout practices possibly for the rest of the season. He looked pretty good last game and I have confidence they now know how to deal with the hammy. Sure, Karlos is going to get his carries, which I expect to be very similar to when both of them were healthy. Probably about a 70-30 split. Is Williams going to vulture TD's? Here and there yes, but I wouldn't say that it's an automatic thing Shady gets taken out when they're inside the 10. That elusiveness is extremely valuable, especially when you have players bunched up in a short field.
Now the only thing is the health of the rest of the team. Tyrod is banged up and the starting WRs could both be out a while. That's not good. Hogan and Woods are nowhere near the tandem that Watkins and Harvin are. Clay has been very good so far opening up the middle of the field though and this team needs to rely on a good running game. Also, while the WRs are injured and it hampers the offense it leaves McCoy as the clear star of the offense without them and they're probably going to force him the ball to make plays.
Bottom line, I think McCoy is still slightly under-valued right now and if you can grab him without giving up too much I'd pull the trigger. If you already have him just hang tight.
I don't even own McCoy but am considering trading for him as I think his value can only go up from here as long as he gets healthier. It's no given but I expect the Bills to use caution with him throughout practices possibly for the rest of the season. He looked pretty good last game and I have confidence they now know how to deal with the hammy. Sure, Karlos is going to get his carries, which I expect to be very similar to when both of them were healthy. Probably about a 70-30 split. Is Williams going to vulture TD's? Here and there yes, but I wouldn't say that it's an automatic thing Shady gets taken out when they're inside the 10. That elusiveness is extremely valuable, especially when you have players bunched up in a short field.
Now the only thing is the health of the rest of the team. Tyrod is banged up and the starting WRs could both be out a while. That's not good. Hogan and Woods are nowhere near the tandem that Watkins and Harvin are. Clay has been very good so far opening up the middle of the field though and this team needs to rely on a good running game. Also, while the WRs are injured and it hampers the offense it leaves McCoy as the clear star of the offense without them and they're probably going to force him the ball to make plays.
Bottom line, I think McCoy is still slightly under-valued right now and if you can grab him without giving up too much I'd pull the trigger. If you already have him just hang tight.
Like you said no one knows. Sure, it's possible it happened on his last touch, and it's also possible that it happened early in the game and he played through it. Same goes for McCoy against Miami however- could have happened early, could have happened on his last touch. Seems disingenuous to excuse one performance due to injury but not even mention it in the other.
Going forward, I think it's mostly going to come down to health (for both RBs). Hammy's and concussions are both very tricky- they can linger or even end a season, or they could be a non-issue the rest of the way.
If both are healthy, I think McCoy is a high end RB 2. Williams and the tougher schedule will keep him from being a RB 1 IMO.
If both are healthy, I think McCoy is a high end RB 2. Williams and the tougher schedule will keep him from being a RB 1 IMO.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Guys I like better than Mccoy for the rest of this season
Freeman
Ivory
Bell
Forte
Peterson
Gurley
Foster
Reasonable opinions might vary on
Ingram
Bernard
Dion Lewis
Blount
Martin
Hyde
Forsett
Lynch
Murray
Murray
Woodhead
Hill
Cj2k
Duke
Am I missing anyone? I think he's on the high end of that group for me, so i would call him a rb1. I don't see myself trading him straight up for any of those guys, honestly, although I'm certain some of them will outscore him. Maybe Lynch if he's healthy. Hill or Bernard if the other gets hurt. Martin if he keeps this up. If I knew for sure which ones the game would be easy. But I can see calling him a high end rb2. It really comes down to preference.
Freeman
Ivory
Bell
Forte
Peterson
Gurley
Foster
Reasonable opinions might vary on
Ingram
Bernard
Dion Lewis
Blount
Martin
Hyde
Forsett
Lynch
Murray
Murray
Woodhead
Hill
Cj2k
Duke
Am I missing anyone? I think he's on the high end of that group for me, so i would call him a rb1. I don't see myself trading him straight up for any of those guys, honestly, although I'm certain some of them will outscore him. Maybe Lynch if he's healthy. Hill or Bernard if the other gets hurt. Martin if he keeps this up. If I knew for sure which ones the game would be easy. But I can see calling him a high end rb2. It really comes down to preference.
Shutout
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
Latavius and Demarco.
Agree on lacy, id personally prefer lacy rest of season but if I owned him right now I can see selling for Mccoy straight up.
Agree on lacy, id personally prefer lacy rest of season but if I owned him right now I can see selling for Mccoy straight up.
Besides Lacy, I think that second group should include Miller and Gore as well.
Yes, there's a difference between saying a certain number of RBs will outscore him vs. picking the specific ones. I could easily see ~15 guys finishing ahead of him, but again, that's if Williams is healthy (which he isn't right now).
Yes, there's a difference between saying a certain number of RBs will outscore him vs. picking the specific ones. I could easily see ~15 guys finishing ahead of him, but again, that's if Williams is healthy (which he isn't right now).
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