We don't know enough yet to know what the situation will be with the accusations and lawsuit. We just no there's a non-zero chance that he might be suspended for a significant portion of the season. But that's not the only mark against him for fantasy:
- Projected to be in a poor offense
- Old
- Has seen lot of usage over the years. 2nd in the league in carries last year
- Might have to work with Josh Allen, whose specialty is the deep ball and not the short stuff that McCoy thrives on
- Potential suspension
I don't think it's a stretch to put him outside the top 20 RBs if you're drafting today. It's really doubtful that he's going to end up on my fantasy team.
Can't disagree with any of that. These things are also true:
Since his rookie year, he has had
only two of eight seasons where he had less than 1400 all purpose yards.
Those two seasons he was held to 12 games. In a nine year career as a bell cow back, he has only missed
a total of eleven games. That's 11 out of 144 or 7.6% By comparison, David Johnson has lost 15 out of 48 games (31.2%)..
He has caught 40 more balls in 7 of the 9 years. One of the remaining two was also one of the 12 game seasons.
He has sustained this high end performance through multiple coordinators, coaches, and franchises and with QBs with all different caliber of talent.
He is
a bell cow back used on every down and has had a prominent role in the passing game.
I agree that he may have fallen due to age and usage (currently I am not concerned about a possible suspension enough to have it effect his value).
One thing McCoy has is opportunity. Many other RBs ranked highly would dream of getting the touches he will get as long as he is on the field, and as long as he is getting opportunity, he will continue to be fantasy start-worthy. Therefore, to me, the season falls into two possible outcomes. Either he gets injured and loses significant games/opportunities, or he does not and his floor is about RB 20 and his ceiling is probably around RB8.
So it comes down to the probability of injury.
This could be the year that the wheels fall off... the high usage in 2017 certainly supports that... but I have learned not to bet against McCoy.
The consensus rankings on this page have him at RB21 for redraft ppr and as the 39th player overall for ppr redraft. If I can get McCoy for pick 39, the 3rd pick in the fourth round of a 12 team ppr draft, I would not hesitate. (No way would I grab any of the WR ranked around that slot (D Thomas, Jarvis Landry, Golden Tate, Allen Robinson) ahead of McCoy. Every one of them has at least as many warts as those you listed for McCoy, above. Also, after the top ten or so WR there are 30-40 that are in plateau of value. The WR2 and WR3 talent pool is so deep this year).
As I mentioned in another thread, in th first three rounds of a PPR draft, I want a top ten WR, a top 3 TE, and at least a top 15 RB. If I can get those three and then add McCoy in the 4th? I'd be pretty darn happy.