Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Let’s take a look at the rush defenses around the league and try and figure out if what teams will remain good against the rush and what teams might take a step or two back or possibly improve because of free agency and whatnot. I’ll simply go in order of last year.
1. Minnesota: Allowed 61 yds rush per game, 9 rush TD, only a 2.8 yd per carry avg against the opposition. Quite frankly they have a pair of DT in Pat and Kevin Williams that are simply just too tough to run straight into. I would not say they could absolutely duplicate the same stats as last season but they do have a nice running game developing on offense too…AP and Chester are going to carry the ball a lot…ball control can keep a good run stuffing defense fresh…I will be looking to bet the under a lot with Minnesota this season.
2. Baltimore: Allowed just under 76 yds a game, only 5 rushing TD, and 4 times the opposition broke a run of 20+ yds…frightening. They did lose Adalius Thomas but this defense is still pretty loaded. Maybe they give up a little more on the ground but this is still one of the harder teams to run against, has been that way for a long time.
3. Pittsburgh: 88 yds a game, 9 rushing TD, 3.5 yds per carry…I might think the Steelers slip just a bit this season. Cowher brought an intensity to that defense to always make them a top 10 rush defense, I still think they will be tough…but maybe not quite as fearsome as in years past.
4. Jacksonville: 91 yds a game, 14 TDs, 3.5 yds per attempt. Henderson and Stroud are really a force for teams to try and run around. They add Reggie Nelson and ILB Justin Durant in the 1st and 2nd round…they are only going to get stronger. I would pencil them in as one of those 5-10 teams you don’t want to roll your RB out against on a weekly basis…they did give away a lot of rush TD but that might change this year.
5. New England: 94 yds a game, 11 rush TD, only 6 runs of 20+ yds on them all season…and they signed Adalius Thomas to add to their LB core. Look the pAts are going to make a run at their 4th Lombardi Trophy this year, the rush defense should be as good as last season. Wilfolk, Seymour, and Ty Warren anchor possibly the best DL in a 3-4 in the NFL. They drafted Merriweather who will improve the secondary and help out a lot in run support…this is a fully loaded team and I expect big things from just about every unit they field. This is no different. Probably have a chance to be the #1 rush defense this season.
6. Chicago: 99 yds a game, 4.0 ypc, and 13 runs of 20+ yds. I have pretty much felt like the top5 from last season should remain at or near the top with an exception or two but nothing drastic. Now Chicago could be a different story. They had a lot of injuries last season though too. Brown and Harris were out for quite a bit of the season and it opened up the running lanes a bit. I really felt the way to beat them was to run at them, and the Colts had no trouble running the football in the SB. There is a good chance for a SB hangover for these guys with off the field problems, and players wanting out of Chicago by the pound…maybe they might not try as hard as they should this year. Think Briggs and Brown are going to give 100%? Maybe you do. They won’t be a pushover but they could take a step back.
7. San Diego: 100 yds a game, 13 rushing TDs, 4.2 yds per carry. Now SD had a rash of inuries to their LB corp last season, and some other off filed shenanigans too. I would say this is a team that could be better on defense BUT they lost Schottenheimer and Wade Phillips…I am not optimistic they actually shut the run down any better than before even with Merriman playing the whole season and Philips healthy…this team might have a problem with finding their soul in some of the closer games they could be in. And the best way to keep LT off the field is to go on long sustained drives if you are the opposing team. Just some food for thought. I would not put SD in my top10 for the moment.
8. Miami: 101 yds a game, 3.5 ypc, 7 rush TD. They should be good against the run. They managed to bring Zach Thomas some help with the signing of Jerry Porter, they resigned AARP eligible Keith Traylor to come back and play, they should be OK against the run.
9. Atlanta: 103 yds per game, 3.7 ypc, 14 rush TD, and 97 FD given up via the run. 1st stats were promising, the 2nd two not as good. Losing Kearney might hurt. Did draft Jamaal Anderson but he will need some time to develop at the NFL level. If Vick misses any time and that offense takes the field with Harrington…oh my holy god! I just think they did a fairly nice job against the run last season but this isn’t a powerhouse yet. Not top10 material IMO.
10. Dallas: 3.9 ypc, and only 5 runs of 20+ yds given up on defense. 103 yds per game. I would bet Wade Phillips is going to make this defense actually improve. They have the 3-4 like what he came from in San Diego and they have a pretty good talent pool in place. They drafted Anthony Spencer who I like a lot in this 3-4 from Purdue. One of the reasons I think Dallas will play “looser” on offense this season will be the play of their defense especially against the run. They would be listed in my top10 and one of the team I wouldn’t be excited about my RB facing.
11. Carolina: 108 yds a game, 3.9 ypc, 10 rush TD. They just didn’t get it done last season. Maybe it was Dan Morgan being out but they have fixed this problem with the addition of Beason thru the draft. No big signings on defense to speak of but I do think this unit will play better than last season. In 2005 they had the 4th toughest rush defense in terms of yds per game…there is reason to think they could get back to that level.
12. Denver: 113 yds per game, 13 rush TD, and 4.1 ypc. Nothing too special on defense but they have overhauled their DL and drafted Moss, Crowder, and Thomas to revamp things upfront. Alvin McKinley was signed to a 4 year deal, no one has probably heard of him but the fact they signed him to 4 years…not the 1 year type contracts that so many players get in the off season…they plan on using him. Al Wilson is gone. Denver was 2nd in 2005, 4th in 2004, 7th in 2003…the team is usually hard to run on. Of course the flip side of that coin is do you really want to stand back and throw darts at Champ Bailey and Dre Bly??? Could be one of the top defenses to reckon with both by land and by air this season.
13. Green Bay: 114 yds a game, 12 TD, 4.1 ypc. They did draft Justin Harrell to anchor their DL…he should be pretty good. They are just sort of meh to me on defense. I still am one of those people that feels like GB has perhaps worst collection of talent along with about 4-5 other teams…they just don’t have it. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them in the bottom 10 this season on rush defense mainly because they don’t have a running game to pseak of on offense. Tired defenses get run on in the 2nd half of football games. I would say they slip a few notches this year.
14. New York Giants: 114 yds a game 19 BIG TDs, 4.0 ypc. The G-Men are going to suffer from that rush attack I spoke above with the GB Packers. I think the Giants will be a mess this season and while I might not be inclined to rank them bottom 10, I don’t see where they will be leaps and bounds better on rush defense. No splash at free agency that I can see either…nothing in the 1st two rounds of the draft.
15. Cincinnati: 116 yds per game, 15 rush TDs, and 4.2 ypc. Teams should just run on the Bengals as much as humanly possible. They aren’t the worst by a longshot but they don’t exactly shut teams down either. Gotta keep Palmer/Cj/Housh off the field…you would think teams might know that by now. Cinci was pretty bad in ’03, and ’04, got better in ’05, a little better in ’06…they could continue on that path. I don’t see any reason Cinci will be better this season, probably middle of the road.
16. Arizona: 118 yds a game, 4.1 ypc, only 9 runs of 20+ yds. I see Arizona as a team on the rise. There are several reasons for this but the biggest stands 6 foot 6 and weighs 330 lbs, I’m talking about Alan Branch. He will give them an identity on defense they have sorely been lacking. I also feel the new coach will emphasize defense and good fundamental run blocking which will keep the defense a lot fresher. They have had some quiet but decent signings as well this off season. I am going out on a limb and declaring Arizona as a possible vault into the top10 for rush defenses this season. Lookout!
17. Tampa Bay: 119 yds a game, 3.9 ypc, 108 FD given up via the run. They are trying…got rid of Booger, traded to bring in Ryan Sims, former high pick from KC. Got Cato June but he comes from a poor rush defense. Kevin Carter was brought in. Look, Monte Kiffin is capable of anything with a defense but I just think they have some big holes still to fill. And I think Gaines Adams will be looked back on in 2-3 seasons and leave fans really unhappy with taking him at #4 in the draft. We’ll see. No reason to think the Bucs jump back up into the top10 IMO this year.
18. Kansas City: 120 yds per game, 4.2 ypc, 14 rush TD. I was set to bury the Chiefs on rush defense…however, they at least took action to try and turn things around and you need to recognize that. Napolean Harris and Donnie Edwards were each signed to multi-year deals at LB and should be nice playing alongside Derrick Johnson. What else you say? How bout signing Alfonso Boone and Ron Edwards to 4 year contracts each in March. Boone is a 320 lb DT/DE that played as a reserve in Chicago for many years…hard to get playing time behind Tommie Harris. Edwards is part of a rotation they used last season. They also drafted Turk McBride from Tenn in round 2, has a lot of potential. Also drafted DeMarcus Tyler from NCState who played alongside Mario Williams and John McCargo to form one of the most fearsome DL in college football in 2005. There are signs that Edwards will make this team better against the run…but they will need time to develop so for now KC is middle of the road.
19. San Francisco: 121 yds a game, 4.1 ypc, and 18 rush TDs. The drafting of Willis is going to put a stop to some of these great run stats players rack up against them but they are still a year away and probably a DT too from being a contender for top10 as a rush defense. Certainly the development of their offense and ability to keep the defense off the field will help. Better but not there yet.
20. Houston: 122 yds a game, 4.4 ypc, 16 rush TD. Two words...Amobi Okoye…he will anchor the middle of that DL and dramatically make this rush defense a lot better. Top10? Maybe not his 1st season but this is a team on the move upwards not down. Shouldn’t be as bad this season.
21. Detroit: 125yds a game, 18 rush TD, 4.1 ypc. Shaun Rogers makes this team a lot better against the run. If he is healthy they will be at least middle of the road if not better…as long as Martz and Co don’t score too fast on offense…who am I kidding, the Lions defense will be on the field all day. Seriously though, St Louis always struggled against the run when Martz was zinging it all over the place…teams get tired. And seeing how teams will try and keep Detroit off the field it is likely they will be run on a lot.
22. Seattle: 126 yds a game, 4.6 ypc(ouch), and 12 rush TD. They were top5 in 2005, Tatupu and Julian Peterson…this was supposed to be a tough team to run on…nothing could be further from the truth last season. I would think they could rebound to being respectable…the rushing game on offense went in the tank…any correlation between the two? I’ll let you decide.
23. New Orleans: 128 yds a game, 4.9 ypc(Yikes!), and 10 rush TD. They re-signed old goat Hollis Thomas, brought in Brian Simmons, but they didn’t address anything in the draft and I don’t see where they have upgraded the rushing defense at all really. And because they have a pretty good offense teams are going to run right at them. They could actually get worse. 27th in 2005, 30th in 2004, I think they may take a step back this season.
24. New York Jets: 130 yds a game, 4.6 ypc, 14 rush TD, only 20+ yd gains(6). Sort of a bend don’t break type defense. Mangini didn’t address too much, they did draft David Harris, ILB from Michigan but he is not going to suddenly make them a top10 rush defense. Now a better rushing game on offense will improve things some. They had a lot of trouble moving the sticks last season by way of the ground game so look for that to take some pressure off this rush defense. Could climb out of the bottom 10.
25. Oakland: 134 yds a game, 4.0 ypc(good for being so low ranked), 15 rush TD. I will simply say this. I expect the Raiders to be improved on offense but I think the defense will take a step back on their rush defense. 25th last year, 25th in 2005, 32nd in 2003…they haven’t got this thing turned around and now they bring in a guy that is more offensive minded. Fine but I feel like this defense will start to suffer against the run more. You don’t have to agree but I think they remain in the bottom 10 again…they didn’t address it thru FA or the Draft and there are lots of teams that are on the rise that they would have to leapfrog.
26. Philadelphia: 136 yds a game, 4.5 ypc, 12 Rush TD. 126 first downs they gave up on the ground…not very good in short yardage situations on defense. This team is an enigma to me. I have to think McNabb back under center is going to help them. Westbrook and the entire rush offense was pretty solid last season but that didn’t help. Montae Reagor was brought in, maybe that will help. No big signings/draft picks…they haven’t been a top10 rush defense in the last 4 years…also never were in the bottom 10 either. Maybe they can rise back to the middle tier.
27. Washington: 137 yds a game, 4.5 ypc, but only 9 rush TD. I have to think that they can be a lot better this season. Drafted Landry to team up with Sean Taylor and they also brought in London Fletcher. My problem is their DL is pretty stinko so if the DT can’t gobble up space/2 men, then you don’t get the LB loose to clean up against the run. They will be better, how much? We’ll see.
28. Buffalo: 140 yds a game, 4.7 ypc, 14 rush TD. They lost Fletcher, Clements, they are going to be really pressed to not remain in the bottom 5, seriously. In fact I will be looking at them as a target during the playoffs.
29. Cleveland: 142 yds a game, 4.4 ypc, 14 rush TD. Hear me out…they are going to be better this year. The OL is the key. The Browns will have some sort of solid ground game to move the ball. This will keep the defense fresher and allow them to play better. I think they will still be in the bottom 10 but probably more like 22-24th instead of 29th and 30th like they have been. You still don’t mind starting a RB against them but I see some marked improvement that will come along with a much better OL for the offense to operate behind.
30. Tennessee: 144 yds a game, 4.6 ypc, and 20 BIG TDs. Strong candidate to remain in the bottom 5-10 this season. Have done nothing to keep up with other teams that are improving themselves thru the draft and FA.
31. St.Louis: 145 yds a game, 4.9 ypc, 21 BIG TDs. As long as their offense is on all cylinders they likely will remain down here as teams will desperately try and run the football to keep their offense off the field. Bottom 10 3 years running, should continue this season unless they plug it up at DT…the trade for Jenkins would have been sweet for them.
32. Indianapolis: 173 yds a game, 5.3 ypc, and 20 Rush TD…and 1 Lombardi Trophy. They showed us didn’t they? They have lost a lot of nice players but they had a good draft. Some people think a full season of Booger will help but I think they are destined to be in the bottom 5-10 again as much like St Louis, teams will try to run the ball and keep them off the field.
So let’s land the plane here a bit. Obviously I need the board feedback to help fill in some of the gaps. But here is likely our top10 rush defenses.
Minnesota
Baltimore
Jacksonville
New England
Miami...I could move them out of the top10
Dallas
Denver
Arizona...I know this is a hard pill to swallow for some
Chicago
Carolina
Just on the outside
San Diego...still pretty good
San Fran...getting there
Kansas City...A for effort
Pittsburgh...I understand why some balk at this
Houston...much much better...maybe they move into the top10
Bottom 10
Indy
St Louis
New Orleans
Oakland
Buffalo
Detroit
New York Giants
Cincinnati
Philadelphia
Green Bay
Cleveland...I have 11 teams now
You know where we are going with this. We are looking for the RB with the softest run schedule and sometimes it is dangerous to assume all teams that were bad the year before remain that way. I do think there are surprises every year but they get countered by a team that runs the other way. For every team that turns out a stinker, you get a surprise team that actually can stop the run…so I still put a decent amount of stock in Strength of Schedule.
This thread is hopefully my mulligan from yeasterday. I still think what I put up in the "Wasted Time" thread has its merits in redrafts but I didn't do a good job of structuring it. Now get to work
1. Minnesota: Allowed 61 yds rush per game, 9 rush TD, only a 2.8 yd per carry avg against the opposition. Quite frankly they have a pair of DT in Pat and Kevin Williams that are simply just too tough to run straight into. I would not say they could absolutely duplicate the same stats as last season but they do have a nice running game developing on offense too…AP and Chester are going to carry the ball a lot…ball control can keep a good run stuffing defense fresh…I will be looking to bet the under a lot with Minnesota this season.
2. Baltimore: Allowed just under 76 yds a game, only 5 rushing TD, and 4 times the opposition broke a run of 20+ yds…frightening. They did lose Adalius Thomas but this defense is still pretty loaded. Maybe they give up a little more on the ground but this is still one of the harder teams to run against, has been that way for a long time.
3. Pittsburgh: 88 yds a game, 9 rushing TD, 3.5 yds per carry…I might think the Steelers slip just a bit this season. Cowher brought an intensity to that defense to always make them a top 10 rush defense, I still think they will be tough…but maybe not quite as fearsome as in years past.
4. Jacksonville: 91 yds a game, 14 TDs, 3.5 yds per attempt. Henderson and Stroud are really a force for teams to try and run around. They add Reggie Nelson and ILB Justin Durant in the 1st and 2nd round…they are only going to get stronger. I would pencil them in as one of those 5-10 teams you don’t want to roll your RB out against on a weekly basis…they did give away a lot of rush TD but that might change this year.
5. New England: 94 yds a game, 11 rush TD, only 6 runs of 20+ yds on them all season…and they signed Adalius Thomas to add to their LB core. Look the pAts are going to make a run at their 4th Lombardi Trophy this year, the rush defense should be as good as last season. Wilfolk, Seymour, and Ty Warren anchor possibly the best DL in a 3-4 in the NFL. They drafted Merriweather who will improve the secondary and help out a lot in run support…this is a fully loaded team and I expect big things from just about every unit they field. This is no different. Probably have a chance to be the #1 rush defense this season.
6. Chicago: 99 yds a game, 4.0 ypc, and 13 runs of 20+ yds. I have pretty much felt like the top5 from last season should remain at or near the top with an exception or two but nothing drastic. Now Chicago could be a different story. They had a lot of injuries last season though too. Brown and Harris were out for quite a bit of the season and it opened up the running lanes a bit. I really felt the way to beat them was to run at them, and the Colts had no trouble running the football in the SB. There is a good chance for a SB hangover for these guys with off the field problems, and players wanting out of Chicago by the pound…maybe they might not try as hard as they should this year. Think Briggs and Brown are going to give 100%? Maybe you do. They won’t be a pushover but they could take a step back.
7. San Diego: 100 yds a game, 13 rushing TDs, 4.2 yds per carry. Now SD had a rash of inuries to their LB corp last season, and some other off filed shenanigans too. I would say this is a team that could be better on defense BUT they lost Schottenheimer and Wade Phillips…I am not optimistic they actually shut the run down any better than before even with Merriman playing the whole season and Philips healthy…this team might have a problem with finding their soul in some of the closer games they could be in. And the best way to keep LT off the field is to go on long sustained drives if you are the opposing team. Just some food for thought. I would not put SD in my top10 for the moment.
8. Miami: 101 yds a game, 3.5 ypc, 7 rush TD. They should be good against the run. They managed to bring Zach Thomas some help with the signing of Jerry Porter, they resigned AARP eligible Keith Traylor to come back and play, they should be OK against the run.
9. Atlanta: 103 yds per game, 3.7 ypc, 14 rush TD, and 97 FD given up via the run. 1st stats were promising, the 2nd two not as good. Losing Kearney might hurt. Did draft Jamaal Anderson but he will need some time to develop at the NFL level. If Vick misses any time and that offense takes the field with Harrington…oh my holy god! I just think they did a fairly nice job against the run last season but this isn’t a powerhouse yet. Not top10 material IMO.
10. Dallas: 3.9 ypc, and only 5 runs of 20+ yds given up on defense. 103 yds per game. I would bet Wade Phillips is going to make this defense actually improve. They have the 3-4 like what he came from in San Diego and they have a pretty good talent pool in place. They drafted Anthony Spencer who I like a lot in this 3-4 from Purdue. One of the reasons I think Dallas will play “looser” on offense this season will be the play of their defense especially against the run. They would be listed in my top10 and one of the team I wouldn’t be excited about my RB facing.
11. Carolina: 108 yds a game, 3.9 ypc, 10 rush TD. They just didn’t get it done last season. Maybe it was Dan Morgan being out but they have fixed this problem with the addition of Beason thru the draft. No big signings on defense to speak of but I do think this unit will play better than last season. In 2005 they had the 4th toughest rush defense in terms of yds per game…there is reason to think they could get back to that level.
12. Denver: 113 yds per game, 13 rush TD, and 4.1 ypc. Nothing too special on defense but they have overhauled their DL and drafted Moss, Crowder, and Thomas to revamp things upfront. Alvin McKinley was signed to a 4 year deal, no one has probably heard of him but the fact they signed him to 4 years…not the 1 year type contracts that so many players get in the off season…they plan on using him. Al Wilson is gone. Denver was 2nd in 2005, 4th in 2004, 7th in 2003…the team is usually hard to run on. Of course the flip side of that coin is do you really want to stand back and throw darts at Champ Bailey and Dre Bly??? Could be one of the top defenses to reckon with both by land and by air this season.
13. Green Bay: 114 yds a game, 12 TD, 4.1 ypc. They did draft Justin Harrell to anchor their DL…he should be pretty good. They are just sort of meh to me on defense. I still am one of those people that feels like GB has perhaps worst collection of talent along with about 4-5 other teams…they just don’t have it. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them in the bottom 10 this season on rush defense mainly because they don’t have a running game to pseak of on offense. Tired defenses get run on in the 2nd half of football games. I would say they slip a few notches this year.
14. New York Giants: 114 yds a game 19 BIG TDs, 4.0 ypc. The G-Men are going to suffer from that rush attack I spoke above with the GB Packers. I think the Giants will be a mess this season and while I might not be inclined to rank them bottom 10, I don’t see where they will be leaps and bounds better on rush defense. No splash at free agency that I can see either…nothing in the 1st two rounds of the draft.
15. Cincinnati: 116 yds per game, 15 rush TDs, and 4.2 ypc. Teams should just run on the Bengals as much as humanly possible. They aren’t the worst by a longshot but they don’t exactly shut teams down either. Gotta keep Palmer/Cj/Housh off the field…you would think teams might know that by now. Cinci was pretty bad in ’03, and ’04, got better in ’05, a little better in ’06…they could continue on that path. I don’t see any reason Cinci will be better this season, probably middle of the road.
16. Arizona: 118 yds a game, 4.1 ypc, only 9 runs of 20+ yds. I see Arizona as a team on the rise. There are several reasons for this but the biggest stands 6 foot 6 and weighs 330 lbs, I’m talking about Alan Branch. He will give them an identity on defense they have sorely been lacking. I also feel the new coach will emphasize defense and good fundamental run blocking which will keep the defense a lot fresher. They have had some quiet but decent signings as well this off season. I am going out on a limb and declaring Arizona as a possible vault into the top10 for rush defenses this season. Lookout!
17. Tampa Bay: 119 yds a game, 3.9 ypc, 108 FD given up via the run. They are trying…got rid of Booger, traded to bring in Ryan Sims, former high pick from KC. Got Cato June but he comes from a poor rush defense. Kevin Carter was brought in. Look, Monte Kiffin is capable of anything with a defense but I just think they have some big holes still to fill. And I think Gaines Adams will be looked back on in 2-3 seasons and leave fans really unhappy with taking him at #4 in the draft. We’ll see. No reason to think the Bucs jump back up into the top10 IMO this year.
18. Kansas City: 120 yds per game, 4.2 ypc, 14 rush TD. I was set to bury the Chiefs on rush defense…however, they at least took action to try and turn things around and you need to recognize that. Napolean Harris and Donnie Edwards were each signed to multi-year deals at LB and should be nice playing alongside Derrick Johnson. What else you say? How bout signing Alfonso Boone and Ron Edwards to 4 year contracts each in March. Boone is a 320 lb DT/DE that played as a reserve in Chicago for many years…hard to get playing time behind Tommie Harris. Edwards is part of a rotation they used last season. They also drafted Turk McBride from Tenn in round 2, has a lot of potential. Also drafted DeMarcus Tyler from NCState who played alongside Mario Williams and John McCargo to form one of the most fearsome DL in college football in 2005. There are signs that Edwards will make this team better against the run…but they will need time to develop so for now KC is middle of the road.
19. San Francisco: 121 yds a game, 4.1 ypc, and 18 rush TDs. The drafting of Willis is going to put a stop to some of these great run stats players rack up against them but they are still a year away and probably a DT too from being a contender for top10 as a rush defense. Certainly the development of their offense and ability to keep the defense off the field will help. Better but not there yet.
20. Houston: 122 yds a game, 4.4 ypc, 16 rush TD. Two words...Amobi Okoye…he will anchor the middle of that DL and dramatically make this rush defense a lot better. Top10? Maybe not his 1st season but this is a team on the move upwards not down. Shouldn’t be as bad this season.
21. Detroit: 125yds a game, 18 rush TD, 4.1 ypc. Shaun Rogers makes this team a lot better against the run. If he is healthy they will be at least middle of the road if not better…as long as Martz and Co don’t score too fast on offense…who am I kidding, the Lions defense will be on the field all day. Seriously though, St Louis always struggled against the run when Martz was zinging it all over the place…teams get tired. And seeing how teams will try and keep Detroit off the field it is likely they will be run on a lot.
22. Seattle: 126 yds a game, 4.6 ypc(ouch), and 12 rush TD. They were top5 in 2005, Tatupu and Julian Peterson…this was supposed to be a tough team to run on…nothing could be further from the truth last season. I would think they could rebound to being respectable…the rushing game on offense went in the tank…any correlation between the two? I’ll let you decide.
23. New Orleans: 128 yds a game, 4.9 ypc(Yikes!), and 10 rush TD. They re-signed old goat Hollis Thomas, brought in Brian Simmons, but they didn’t address anything in the draft and I don’t see where they have upgraded the rushing defense at all really. And because they have a pretty good offense teams are going to run right at them. They could actually get worse. 27th in 2005, 30th in 2004, I think they may take a step back this season.
24. New York Jets: 130 yds a game, 4.6 ypc, 14 rush TD, only 20+ yd gains(6). Sort of a bend don’t break type defense. Mangini didn’t address too much, they did draft David Harris, ILB from Michigan but he is not going to suddenly make them a top10 rush defense. Now a better rushing game on offense will improve things some. They had a lot of trouble moving the sticks last season by way of the ground game so look for that to take some pressure off this rush defense. Could climb out of the bottom 10.
25. Oakland: 134 yds a game, 4.0 ypc(good for being so low ranked), 15 rush TD. I will simply say this. I expect the Raiders to be improved on offense but I think the defense will take a step back on their rush defense. 25th last year, 25th in 2005, 32nd in 2003…they haven’t got this thing turned around and now they bring in a guy that is more offensive minded. Fine but I feel like this defense will start to suffer against the run more. You don’t have to agree but I think they remain in the bottom 10 again…they didn’t address it thru FA or the Draft and there are lots of teams that are on the rise that they would have to leapfrog.
26. Philadelphia: 136 yds a game, 4.5 ypc, 12 Rush TD. 126 first downs they gave up on the ground…not very good in short yardage situations on defense. This team is an enigma to me. I have to think McNabb back under center is going to help them. Westbrook and the entire rush offense was pretty solid last season but that didn’t help. Montae Reagor was brought in, maybe that will help. No big signings/draft picks…they haven’t been a top10 rush defense in the last 4 years…also never were in the bottom 10 either. Maybe they can rise back to the middle tier.
27. Washington: 137 yds a game, 4.5 ypc, but only 9 rush TD. I have to think that they can be a lot better this season. Drafted Landry to team up with Sean Taylor and they also brought in London Fletcher. My problem is their DL is pretty stinko so if the DT can’t gobble up space/2 men, then you don’t get the LB loose to clean up against the run. They will be better, how much? We’ll see.
28. Buffalo: 140 yds a game, 4.7 ypc, 14 rush TD. They lost Fletcher, Clements, they are going to be really pressed to not remain in the bottom 5, seriously. In fact I will be looking at them as a target during the playoffs.
29. Cleveland: 142 yds a game, 4.4 ypc, 14 rush TD. Hear me out…they are going to be better this year. The OL is the key. The Browns will have some sort of solid ground game to move the ball. This will keep the defense fresher and allow them to play better. I think they will still be in the bottom 10 but probably more like 22-24th instead of 29th and 30th like they have been. You still don’t mind starting a RB against them but I see some marked improvement that will come along with a much better OL for the offense to operate behind.
30. Tennessee: 144 yds a game, 4.6 ypc, and 20 BIG TDs. Strong candidate to remain in the bottom 5-10 this season. Have done nothing to keep up with other teams that are improving themselves thru the draft and FA.
31. St.Louis: 145 yds a game, 4.9 ypc, 21 BIG TDs. As long as their offense is on all cylinders they likely will remain down here as teams will desperately try and run the football to keep their offense off the field. Bottom 10 3 years running, should continue this season unless they plug it up at DT…the trade for Jenkins would have been sweet for them.
32. Indianapolis: 173 yds a game, 5.3 ypc, and 20 Rush TD…and 1 Lombardi Trophy. They showed us didn’t they? They have lost a lot of nice players but they had a good draft. Some people think a full season of Booger will help but I think they are destined to be in the bottom 5-10 again as much like St Louis, teams will try to run the ball and keep them off the field.
So let’s land the plane here a bit. Obviously I need the board feedback to help fill in some of the gaps. But here is likely our top10 rush defenses.
Minnesota
Baltimore
Jacksonville
New England
Miami...I could move them out of the top10
Dallas
Denver
Arizona...I know this is a hard pill to swallow for some
Chicago
Carolina
Just on the outside
San Diego...still pretty good
San Fran...getting there
Kansas City...A for effort
Pittsburgh...I understand why some balk at this
Houston...much much better...maybe they move into the top10
Bottom 10
Indy
St Louis
New Orleans
Oakland
Buffalo
Detroit
New York Giants
Cincinnati
Philadelphia
Green Bay
Cleveland...I have 11 teams now
You know where we are going with this. We are looking for the RB with the softest run schedule and sometimes it is dangerous to assume all teams that were bad the year before remain that way. I do think there are surprises every year but they get countered by a team that runs the other way. For every team that turns out a stinker, you get a surprise team that actually can stop the run…so I still put a decent amount of stock in Strength of Schedule.
This thread is hopefully my mulligan from yeasterday. I still think what I put up in the "Wasted Time" thread has its merits in redrafts but I didn't do a good job of structuring it. Now get to work
Last edited by a moderator:
I'll put in my 2 cents later.
I was going to say the same thing regarding Tomlin, plus the Steelers still have Casey Hampton.
I was going to say the same thing regarding Tomlin, plus the Steelers still have Casey Hampton.
