Let's Talk S. Alexander (1 Viewer)

[BigTex]

Over the last several years he was the top dog, this year he struggled. So, considering his age and his struggles this year, what is his value?

Is he the perfect buy low candidate?

What type of value do you see in SA?

****Note****

I don't have SA in either league. I just notice that he hasn't been talked about like some of the other RBs and like to know what the feeling of the board is.

 

[TheFanatic]

I have him in 1 league and I was just telling another owner in that league that it's tough for me to make many moves right now and listed some of my players. In the case of Alexander if I moved him now it would be at his all time low since his rookie season. I just can't trade the guy away. I would definitely target him in leagues I don't have him in....

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Really, his value in a dynasty league comes down to how much someone values a potential top 3 uberstud season. I don't think SA has lost anything permanently, and I expect him to be his old self next year - 1500 rushing and 15 TDs should come easily. He's going to help teams win titles next year.

Yes, a steep dropoff is coming, but next year he should deliver the true fantasy RB1 goods... how much is that worth?

Rebuilding teams should deal him, contenders should ride him, unless the offer for him is too sweet. I have him at #5, which is the rank for a contending team. A ranking closer to 10-15 is more realistic for an average dynasty team. Im mulling over dropping him a few slots for this reason as I rebuild my dynasty rankings to lessen the effect of 2006 numbers, which was the biggest factor in my in season adjustments.

 

[BigTex]

Really, his value in a dynasty league comes down to how much someone values a potential top 3 uberstud season. I don't think SA has lost anything permanently, and I expect him to be his old self next year - 1500 rushing and 15 TDs should come easily. He's going to help teams win titles next year. Yes, a steep dropoff is coming, but next year he should deliver the true fantasy RB1 goods... how much is that worth?Rebuilding teams should deal him, contenders should ride him, unless the offer for him is too sweet. I have him at #5, which is the rank for a contending team. A ranking closer to 10-15 is more realistic for an average dynasty team. Im mulling over dropping him a few slots for this reason as I rebuild my dynasty rankings to lessen the effect of 2006 numbers, which was the biggest factor in my in season adjustments.

Seems like he's the lost man considering all the talk about LT and LJ, maybe he (SA) is the perfect buy low.

 

[Blackjacks]

He just looks really slow to me. Now, maybe that is his injury still lingering or maybe not but going off of what I've seen the last 6 weeks or so he is someone I won't touch next year in the top 10. He could very easily turn it around next year and be the old Shaun but I'd say there is less than a 20% chance of that. Again though, to be fair Shaun's injury did happen very early in the year and this was his first season in a long time without Hutchinson so maybe he'll do better than I think but again I wouldn't touch him in the top 10.

 

[BigTex]

He just looks really slow to me. Now, maybe that is his injury still lingering or maybe not but going off of what I've seen the last 6 weeks or so he is someone I won't touch next year in the top 10. He could very easily turn it around next year and be the old Shaun but I'd say there is less than a 20% chance of that. Again though, to be fair Shaun's injury did happen very early in the year and this was his first season in a long time without Hutchinson so maybe he'll do better than I think but again I wouldn't touch him in the top 10.

Bjacks, when you say top 10, do you mean top 10 rbs or top 10 overall?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

He just looks really slow to me.

I dont think he's completely back from the foot injury. A full offseason of rest will make some of that burst come back. Also, SA has always "looked" slow - his speed is very deceptive.

 

[Blackjacks]

He just looks really slow to me. Now, maybe that is his injury still lingering or maybe not but going off of what I've seen the last 6 weeks or so he is someone I won't touch next year in the top 10. He could very easily turn it around next year and be the old Shaun but I'd say there is less than a 20% chance of that. Again though, to be fair Shaun's injury did happen very early in the year and this was his first season in a long time without Hutchinson so maybe he'll do better than I think but again I wouldn't touch him in the top 10.

Bjacks, when you say top 10, do you mean top 10 rbs or top 10 overall?

I mean top 10 running backs which means I won't have him on any team because he will be gone before then.

 

[Blackjacks]

He just looks really slow to me.

I dont think he's completely back from the foot injury. A full offseason of rest will make some of that burst come back. Also, SA has always "looked" slow - his speed is very deceptive.

I believe he might not be copmpletely healed from injury as I put my earlied post and he might have never been a jet going throught the line but I wasn't impressed with him this year and also his line took a huge shot in last offseason and Walter Jones isn't as dominating in my eyes either as he had been in years past. Put all these things together and it smells bad for Shaun in my opinion. It also looked to me that his power had taken a hit as well. I wouldn't go on record saying he will be horrible he just has showed me alot of signs of bewing on the downward spiral.

 

[Banger]

SA is one of those guys that I'm intrigued with this offseason. I'll probably try to make a move for him but I'd suspect that the price will probably be too high because I don't believe he's a top 3 back anymore but I'm sure the owner will want that type of value thinking that "he was injured" etc.

I've always thought that SA was a product of his line and not an elite talent by himself. I think he's a lot like Rudi Johnson and can expect similar type #'s. He's a workhorse 1st/2nd down back and not much of a receiver with a good nose for the end zone. I think he'll definitely be top 10 due to the workload alone but will probably be tough to trade for since his value is at 5 year low.

 

[BigTex]

SA is one of those guys that I'm intrigued with this offseason. I'll probably try to make a move for him but I'd suspect that the price will probably be too high because I don't believe he's a top 3 back anymore but I'm sure the owner will want that type of value thinking that "he was injured" etc. I've always thought that SA was a product of his line and not an elite talent by himself. I think he's a lot like Rudi Johnson and can expect similar type #'s. He's a workhorse 1st/2nd down back and not much of a receiver with a good nose for the end zone. I think he'll definitely be top 10 due to the workload alone but will probably be tough to trade for since his value is at 5 year low.

What player or combination of players/picks would you give up for the right price?

 

[Banger]

SA is one of those guys that I'm intrigued with this offseason. I'll probably try to make a move for him but I'd suspect that the price will probably be too high because I don't believe he's a top 3 back anymore but I'm sure the owner will want that type of value thinking that "he was injured" etc. I've always thought that SA was a product of his line and not an elite talent by himself. I think he's a lot like Rudi Johnson and can expect similar type #'s. He's a workhorse 1st/2nd down back and not much of a receiver with a good nose for the end zone. I think he'll definitely be top 10 due to the workload alone but will probably be tough to trade for since his value is at 5 year low.

What player or combination of players/picks would you give up for the right price?

It's really tough to say since what I would offer would be in the context of my league rules and the roster of the owner and their needs. Generically, I'd say maybe like a McGahee and a Boldin type wr (fringe top 10).

 

[broncofan13000]

Last 6 games of the year:

Att Yards TD's

40 201 0

26 90 1

22 76 0

23 73 1

31 140 2

28 92 1

201 carries for 672 and 5 TD's. Sure The YPC suck, but equal that over a full season, and it is 1792 yards and 13 TD's.

He is not an injury concern, as he's been relatively healthy his whole career...

The guy is gonna be a great value if he drops out of the top 5 in drafts next year...

 

[Blackjacks]

Only 2 out of his last 7 games he had over 3.5 ypc. That's with playing SF twice, TB, GB, Arizona and then his tough match ups of SD and Denver.

I'm just looking at the downside cause I'm not a fan next year. Shaun has always been a great player and I couldn't talk anyone out of picking him, however I'll stay far away.

 

[Banger]

Only 2 out of his last 7 games he had over 3.5 ypc. That's with playing SF twice, TB, GB, Arizona and then his tough match ups of SD and Denver. I'm just looking at the downside cause I'm not a fan next year. Shaun has always been a great player and I couldn't talk anyone out of picking him, however I'll stay far away.

I can see either side of the argument going into this year. One thing that's a fact is that he will be used A LOT like he always has. His avg carries/year was 350 for his last 3 years so assuming he gets his 350 carries and continues his putrid 3.6 ypc he had this year (which I don't think he will) that's 1260 yards, he will get his TD's in that offense and in that conference with those attrocious defenses and I think 12 is a low estimate and he's averaged 181 yards receiving/year so using that conservative total he'd get 216 pts which would put him 9th just ahead of Rudi. I think a likely scenario is that his ypc will be closer to 4 and td's to be around 14-15 which puts him around 6-7th. I'd probably project him in the 5-8 range.

 

[Blackjacks]

Only 2 out of his last 7 games he had over 3.5 ypc. That's with playing SF twice, TB, GB, Arizona and then his tough match ups of SD and Denver. I'm just looking at the downside cause I'm not a fan next year. Shaun has always been a great player and I couldn't talk anyone out of picking him, however I'll stay far away.

I can see either side of the argument going into this year. One thing that's a fact is that he will be used A LOT like he always has. His avg carries/year was 350 for his last 3 years so assuming he gets his 350 carries and continues his putrid 3.6 ypc he had this year (which I don't think he will) that's 1260 yards, he will get his TD's in that offense and in that conference with those attrocious defenses and I think 12 is a low estimate and he's averaged 181 yards receiving/year so using that conservative total he'd get 216 pts which would put him 9th just ahead of Rudi. I think a likely scenario is that his ypc will be closer to 4 and td's to be around 14-15 which puts him around 6-7th. I'd probably project him in the 5-8 range.

That's a good posting Banger and I can't really argue against any of your points. I just don't trust the guy.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Last 6 games of the year:

Att Yards TD's

40 201 0

26 90 1

22 76 0

23 73 1

31 140 2

28 92 1

201 carries for 672 and 5 TD's. Sure The YPC suck, but equal that over a full season, and it is 1792 yards and 13 TD's.

He is not an injury concern, as he's been relatively healthy his whole career...

The guy is gonna be a great value if he drops out of the top 5 in drafts next year...

so you're projecting him to get 500 carries next year?

 

[faulkfan]

I like SA next year and I think he'll be a value due to his injury and less than stellar performance this year. I personally will be trying to deal him this off season in my keeper league. I think I can get Reggie Bush for Alexander and Berrian.

 

[wannabee]

 

[BigTex]

I like SA next year and I think he'll be a value due to his injury and less than stellar performance this year. I personally will be trying to deal him this off season in my keeper league. I think I can get Reggie Bush for Alexander and Berrian.

faulk, how many keepers can you have?

 

[fruity pebbles]

I like SA next year and I think he'll be a value due to his injury and less than stellar performance this year. I personally will be trying to deal him this off season in my keeper league. I think I can get Reggie Bush for Alexander and Berrian.

I'd much much rather have Bush unless you can only keep guys for a limited amount of time.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Im still having trouble ranking SAlex behind the likes of Gore & Bush etc.

 

[Sopranos]

I have been trying to get him in my 12 team dynasty. We start 2qb 3rb 4wr

He almost went for Rudi Johnson,C Simms,A Battle, R White and a 2nd rounder.

His team needs everything. Its a PPR league. He wants Rudi and Walker or Evans or TJ Housh and im not doing it. SA is 30 at the start of next season and i cant afford to give top 10-12 WR's up

I would like to have him but im not going to hurt my team 1 or 2 years from now.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I have been trying to get him in my 12 team dynasty. We start 2qb 3rb 4wrHe almost went for Rudi Johnson,C Simms,A Battle, R White and a 2nd rounder.His team needs everything. Its a PPR league. He wants Rudi and Walker or Evans or TJ Housh and im not doing it. SA is 30 at the start of next season and i cant afford to give top 10-12 WR's upI would like to have him but im not going to hurt my team 1 or 2 years from now.

I wouldn't go any higher. Rudi = SA in a dynasty IMO.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I have been trying to get him in my 12 team dynasty. We start 2qb 3rb 4wr

He almost went for Rudi Johnson,C Simms,A Battle, R White and a 2nd rounder.

His team needs everything. Its a PPR league. He wants Rudi and Walker or Evans or TJ Housh and im not doing it. SA is 30 at the start of next season and i cant afford to give top 10-12 WR's up

I would like to have him but im not going to hurt my team 1 or 2 years from now.

I wouldn't go any higher. Rudi = SA in a dynasty IMO.

Rudi is only 2 years younger then Shaun. And while 2 years is large, at 28/30, Shaun assuredly takes less hits and contact then Rudi. And when it comes to fantasy points... Shaun this year pro rates his production slightly higher then Rudi did (187/176 in non ppr), and thats in his and the Seahawks worst of outcomes. Rudi is about 185 points per season for 3 (or 4 pro-rated) straight and about 370 carries.

Meanwhile Shaun, as everyone knows, crushes Rudis numbers over the same span. And the past 3 seasons each have Rudi with more touches! If you want a better chance of winning a title in the next 5 years, Then Im taking Shaun. Easy, peasy lemon squeezy. Now if you are worried about injury concerns with Shaun, okay. But besides that you may be giving up way too many points, enough that could make a difference in getting a title or two along the way.

Not sure if many Rudi owners out there overcame the LTs, LJs, Gores and Jacksons of the world this season. Certainly not when everything else was equal and we are talking about a teams #1 being either Rudi or Shaun. And thats what we are looking at when you compare Rudi with one of those top producers.

I wish I thought Rudi was about to break out for bigger numbers. But I dont at this point.

$.02

 

[fruity pebbles]

I have been trying to get him in my 12 team dynasty. We start 2qb 3rb 4wr

He almost went for Rudi Johnson,C Simms,A Battle, R White and a 2nd rounder.

His team needs everything. Its a PPR league. He wants Rudi and Walker or Evans or TJ Housh and im not doing it. SA is 30 at the start of next season and i cant afford to give top 10-12 WR's up

I would like to have him but im not going to hurt my team 1 or 2 years from now.

I wouldn't go any higher. Rudi = SA in a dynasty IMO.

Rudi is only 2 years younger then Shaun. And while 2 years is large, at 28/30, Shaun assuredly takes less hits and contact then Rudi. And when it comes to fantasy points... Shaun this year pro rates his production slightly higher then Rudi did (187/176 in non ppr), and thats in his and the Seahawks worst of outcomes. Rudi is about 185 points per season for 3 (or 4 pro-rated) straight and about 370 carries.

Meanwhile Shaun, as everyone knows, crushes Rudis numbers over the same span. And the past 3 seasons each have Rudi with more touches! If you want a better chance of winning a title in the next 5 years, Then Im taking Shaun. Easy, peasy lemon squeezy. Now if you are worried about injury concerns with Shaun, okay. But besides that you may be giving up way too many points, enough that could make a difference in getting a title or two along the way.

Not sure if many Rudi owners out there overcame the LTs, LJs, Gores and Jacksons of the world this season. Certainly not when everything else was equal and we are talking about a teams #1 being either Rudi or Shaun. And thats what we are looking at when you compare Rudi with one of those top producers.

I wish I thought Rudi was about to break out for bigger numbers. But I dont at this point.

$.02

Not sure where your numbers came from but Rudi had 198 points in my non ppr standard scoring league. Alexander this year prorated for 350 carries would have had 178 points. Given that Rudi is a couple years younger, Alexander will be 30 years old this year, and given how SA looked running the ball, I see the two of them as pretty equal in a dynasty.

 

[Sopranos]

I have been trying to get him in my 12 team dynasty. We start 2qb 3rb 4wr

He almost went for Rudi Johnson,C Simms,A Battle, R White and a 2nd rounder.

His team needs everything. Its a PPR league. He wants Rudi and Walker or Evans or TJ Housh and im not doing it. SA is 30 at the start of next season and i cant afford to give top 10-12 WR's up

I would like to have him but im not going to hurt my team 1 or 2 years from now.

I wouldn't go any higher. Rudi = SA in a dynasty IMO.

Rudi is only 2 years younger then Shaun. And while 2 years is large, at 28/30, Shaun assuredly takes less hits and contact then Rudi. And when it comes to fantasy points... Shaun this year pro rates his production slightly higher then Rudi did (187/176 in non ppr), and thats in his and the Seahawks worst of outcomes. Rudi is about 185 points per season for 3 (or 4 pro-rated) straight and about 370 carries.

Meanwhile Shaun, as everyone knows, crushes Rudis numbers over the same span. And the past 3 seasons each have Rudi with more touches! If you want a better chance of winning a title in the next 5 years, Then Im taking Shaun. Easy, peasy lemon squeezy. Now if you are worried about injury concerns with Shaun, okay. But besides that you may be giving up way too many points, enough that could make a difference in getting a title or two along the way.

Not sure if many Rudi owners out there overcame the LTs, LJs, Gores and Jacksons of the world this season. Certainly not when everything else was equal and we are talking about a teams #1 being either Rudi or Shaun. And thats what we are looking at when you compare Rudi with one of those top producers.

I wish I thought Rudi was about to break out for bigger numbers. But I dont at this point.

$.02

Well thats why i offered more than Rudi. But i wouldnt say over the next 5 years. SA will be a legit #1 for about 2 years. He wont be playing at 35.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I have been trying to get him in my 12 team dynasty. We start 2qb 3rb 4wr

He almost went for Rudi Johnson,C Simms,A Battle, R White and a 2nd rounder.

His team needs everything. Its a PPR league. He wants Rudi and Walker or Evans or TJ Housh and im not doing it. SA is 30 at the start of next season and i cant afford to give top 10-12 WR's up

I would like to have him but im not going to hurt my team 1 or 2 years from now.

I wouldn't go any higher. Rudi = SA in a dynasty IMO.

Rudi is only 2 years younger then Shaun. And while 2 years is large, at 28/30, Shaun assuredly takes less hits and contact then Rudi. And when it comes to fantasy points... Shaun this year pro rates his production slightly higher then Rudi did (187/176 in non ppr), and thats in his and the Seahawks worst of outcomes. Rudi is about 185 points per season for 3 (or 4 pro-rated) straight and about 370 carries.

Meanwhile Shaun, as everyone knows, crushes Rudis numbers over the same span. And the past 3 seasons each have Rudi with more touches! If you want a better chance of winning a title in the next 5 years, Then Im taking Shaun. Easy, peasy lemon squeezy. Now if you are worried about injury concerns with Shaun, okay. But besides that you may be giving up way too many points, enough that could make a difference in getting a title or two along the way.

Not sure if many Rudi owners out there overcame the LTs, LJs, Gores and Jacksons of the world this season. Certainly not when everything else was equal and we are talking about a teams #1 being either Rudi or Shaun. And thats what we are looking at when you compare Rudi with one of those top producers.

I wish I thought Rudi was about to break out for bigger numbers. But I dont at this point.

$.02

Well thats why i offered more than Rudi. But i wouldnt say over the next 5 years. SA will be a legit #1 for about 2 years. He wont be playing at 35.

I agree but in fairness you really didn;t offer much more than just Rudi for SA. The value of those other guys is pretty minimal.

 

[Sopranos]

I have been trying to get him in my 12 team dynasty. We start 2qb 3rb 4wr

He almost went for Rudi Johnson,C Simms,A Battle, R White and a 2nd rounder.

His team needs everything. Its a PPR league. He wants Rudi and Walker or Evans or TJ Housh and im not doing it. SA is 30 at the start of next season and i cant afford to give top 10-12 WR's up

I would like to have him but im not going to hurt my team 1 or 2 years from now.

I wouldn't go any higher. Rudi = SA in a dynasty IMO.

Rudi is only 2 years younger then Shaun. And while 2 years is large, at 28/30, Shaun assuredly takes less hits and contact then Rudi. And when it comes to fantasy points... Shaun this year pro rates his production slightly higher then Rudi did (187/176 in non ppr), and thats in his and the Seahawks worst of outcomes. Rudi is about 185 points per season for 3 (or 4 pro-rated) straight and about 370 carries.

Meanwhile Shaun, as everyone knows, crushes Rudis numbers over the same span. And the past 3 seasons each have Rudi with more touches! If you want a better chance of winning a title in the next 5 years, Then Im taking Shaun. Easy, peasy lemon squeezy. Now if you are worried about injury concerns with Shaun, okay. But besides that you may be giving up way too many points, enough that could make a difference in getting a title or two along the way.

Not sure if many Rudi owners out there overcame the LTs, LJs, Gores and Jacksons of the world this season. Certainly not when everything else was equal and we are talking about a teams #1 being either Rudi or Shaun. And thats what we are looking at when you compare Rudi with one of those top producers.

I wish I thought Rudi was about to break out for bigger numbers. But I dont at this point.

$.02

Well thats why i offered more than Rudi. But i wouldnt say over the next 5 years. SA will be a legit #1 for about 2 years. He wont be playing at 35.

I agree but in fairness you really didn;t offer much more than just Rudi for SA. The value of those other guys is pretty minimal.

True but in a league where need 3 QB's because of you 2 bye weeks Simms holds value. There isnt 36 starters in the NFL everyweek. And those young WRs and the pick or picks is better than what he has to build on. In 2 years he has nothing. JMO

 

[BigTex]

I have been trying to get him in my 12 team dynasty. We start 2qb 3rb 4wr

He almost went for Rudi Johnson,C Simms,A Battle, R White and a 2nd rounder.

His team needs everything. Its a PPR league. He wants Rudi and Walker or Evans or TJ Housh and im not doing it. SA is 30 at the start of next season and i cant afford to give top 10-12 WR's up

I would like to have him but im not going to hurt my team 1 or 2 years from now.

I wouldn't go any higher. Rudi = SA in a dynasty IMO.

Rudi is only 2 years younger then Shaun. And while 2 years is large, at 28/30, Shaun assuredly takes less hits and contact then Rudi. And when it comes to fantasy points... Shaun this year pro rates his production slightly higher then Rudi did (187/176 in non ppr), and thats in his and the Seahawks worst of outcomes. Rudi is about 185 points per season for 3 (or 4 pro-rated) straight and about 370 carries.

Meanwhile Shaun, as everyone knows, crushes Rudis numbers over the same span. And the past 3 seasons each have Rudi with more touches! If you want a better chance of winning a title in the next 5 years, Then Im taking Shaun. Easy, peasy lemon squeezy. Now if you are worried about injury concerns with Shaun, okay. But besides that you may be giving up way too many points, enough that could make a difference in getting a title or two along the way.

Not sure if many Rudi owners out there overcame the LTs, LJs, Gores and Jacksons of the world this season. Certainly not when everything else was equal and we are talking about a teams #1 being either Rudi or Shaun. And thats what we are looking at when you compare Rudi with one of those top producers.

I wish I thought Rudi was about to break out for bigger numbers. But I dont at this point.

$.02

Well thats why i offered more than Rudi. But i wouldnt say over the next 5 years. SA will be a legit #1 for about 2 years. He wont be playing at 35.

I agree but in fairness you really didn;t offer much more than just Rudi for SA. The value of those other guys is pretty minimal.

As a Rudi owner it would be hard for me to give up "Mr. Consistancy" (plus another WR/RB) for SA. I'd be more inclinded to give Chester Taylor + (WR/RB) before I'd give up Rudi.I maybe overvaluing Rudi but he's just too consistant for my taste.

 

[Marc Levin]

Over the last several years he was the top dog, this year he struggled. So, considering his age and his struggles this year, what is his value?Is he the perfect buy low candidate?

I believe so - if you can get a decent deal for him in a keeper/dynasty, I'd look to buy. In redraft leagues, he looks to be one of several RBs who will be appropriately valued, and possibly undervalued, as a slot 5-7 pick.

What type of value do you see in SA?

Not sure what you are asking here. Looking at SA, I think he had his "career year" last year, but I also think he will be a consistent and sometimes spectacular RB1 for the next couple of years. I guess he might fall off fast like Eddie George did, but I don't see it.2005 was a high point for him, and I think 2006 will be his low point for the next 2-3 years. The team paid a buttload last year to keep him, and he will remain the driving force for that offense for the foreseeable future.

 

[tombonneau]

As far as redraft, SA is going to be one of those guys who will be important to watch play in a few preseason games. If he looks like he has the 05 burst, I'll take him. If he looks like the same guy end of 06, no thanks.

This was the same approach I took with McNabb this year: all it took was one pre-season game and anyone who saw McNabb could clearly see that physically he was back.

 

[Marc Levin]

As a Rudi owner it would be hard for me to give up "Mr. Consistancy" (plus another WR/RB) for SA. I'd be more inclinded to give Chester Taylor + (WR/RB) before I'd give up Rudi.I maybe overvaluing Rudi but he's just too consistant for my taste.

Over the last three years, in 42 games, SA had only 10 games under 10 FPs.Over the last three years, in 47 games (excluded last year's last game), Rudi had 16 games under 10 points.SA gives you more upside potential, he faces easier defenses in the NFC-W than Rudi faces in the AFC-N, and SA gives you receiving numbers that Rudi does not. I think Rudi plus a player is the right price.

 

[BigTex]

Over the last several years he was the top dog, this year he struggled. So, considering his age and his struggles this year, what is his value?

Is he the perfect buy low candidate?

I believe so - if you can get a decent deal for him in a keeper/dynasty, I'd look to buy. In redraft leagues, he looks to be one of several RBs who will be appropriately valued, and possibly undervalued, as a slot 5-7 pick.

What type of value do you see in SA?

Not sure what you are asking here. Looking at SA, I think he had his "career year" last year, but I also think he will be a consistent and sometimes spectacular RB1 for the next couple of years. I guess he might fall off fast like Eddie George did, but I don't see it.2005 was a high point for him, and I think 2006 will be his low point for the next 2-3 years. The team paid a buttload last year to keep him, and he will remain the driving force for that offense for the foreseeable future.

Hello Marc, the perception seems to be that the best of SA is behind him. I got DJax and JWalker at great value in a redraft league this year. Because of their injuries from the previous season, some where down on them and I got great value for them. The same may happen for SA.At the begining of the season Message Board Consensus was 340 carries, 1610 yds, 17 rush TDs, 25 rec, 171 rec yds and 2 rec TDs as a projection for SA.

Coming into this season some of the concerns about SA were his increasing rushing production has *"coincided with a steady decline in his receiving totals, with a long-term deal that gives him financial security; will he have the hunger he displayed prior to getting his windfall" and the lost to Steve Hutchinson.

By value, is he no longer a tier 1 rb? Is he now somewhere in the 4-8 range?

*JWood

 

[BigTex]

As a Rudi owner it would be hard for me to give up "Mr. Consistancy" (plus another WR/RB) for SA. I'd be more inclinded to give Chester Taylor + (WR/RB) before I'd give up Rudi.I maybe overvaluing Rudi but he's just too consistant for my taste.

Over the last three years, in 42 games, SA had only 10 games under 10 FPs.Over the last three years, in 47 games (excluded last year's last game), Rudi had 16 games under 10 points.SA gives you more upside potential, he faces easier defenses in the NFC-W than Rudi faces in the AFC-N, and SA gives you receiving numbers that Rudi does not. I think Rudi plus a player is the right price.

Can't argue with this, especially facing easier defenses.

 

[Brewzers]

I own SA in a dynasty league and there is no way I'd trade him low, I value him as a top 5 RB over the next 2 years. SA did not take the normal pounding this year and that may buy him another year longevity.

 

[Marc Levin]

I own SA in a dynasty league and there is no way I'd trade him low, I value him as a top 5 RB over the next 2 years. SA did not take the normal pounding this year and that may buy him another year longevity.

Hey Brewzers, I think it is kind of funny to cite an injury plagued season as a factor in extending SA's career, but I understand your reasoning. Do you think his injury-plagued 2006 was a direct result of a career high in carries in 2005?In 2001 through 2003, SA carried the ball around 300 times each year, but he caught the ball around 50 times each year. There was a change in how the team used SA in 2004 and 2005 - he carried the ball 353 times in '04 and caught only 23 passes and then, in 2005, he ran the ball 370 times and caught only 15 balls.Some other thoughts on SA for next year:1) do you all think Holmgren will scale SA back to around 320 carries, or do you think they will keep his carry numbers high?2) what role will Maurice Morris have next year? He re-signed with the team for three years after SA signed his huge deal, and they took Morris off of return duty. With two-back systems becoming more in vogue now, I wonder what the Seahawks run game will look like next year.3) Both SA and MM had poor YPA - what is up with the OL? The unit also gave up 49 sacks, up from 27 in '05 and 34 in '04.

 

[BigTex]

I own SA in a dynasty league and there is no way I'd trade him low, I value him as a top 5 RB over the next 2 years. SA did not take the normal pounding this year and that may buy him another year longevity.

Hey Brewzers, I think it is kind of funny to cite an injury plagued season as a factor in extending SA's career, but I understand your reasoning. Do you think his injury-plagued 2006 was a direct result of a career high in carries in 2005?In 2001 through 2003, SA carried the ball around 300 times each year, but he caught the ball around 50 times each year. There was a change in how the team used SA in 2004 and 2005 - he carried the ball 353 times in '04 and caught only 23 passes and then, in 2005, he ran the ball 370 times and caught only 15 balls.Some other thoughts on SA for next year:1) do you all think Holmgren will scale SA back to around 320 carries, or do you think they will keep his carry numbers high?2) what role will Maurice Morris have next year? He re-signed with the team for three years after SA signed his huge deal, and they took Morris off of return duty. With two-back systems becoming more in vogue now, I wonder what the Seahawks run game will look like next year.3) Both SA and MM had poor YPA - what is up with the OL? The unit also gave up 49 sacks, up from 27 in '05 and 34 in '04.

You bring up some good questions #3 would be more of a concern if I owned SA. I wonder how old this line is.

 

[Marc Levin]

Projected Starters: RT Sean Locklear (25), RG Tom Ashworth (29), C Robbie Tobeck (36), LG Floyd Womack (28), LT Walter Jones (32)

Key Backups: T/G Sean Locklear, C Chris Spencer (24), T Ray Willis (24), G Rob Sims (rookie)

They are young. That may explain their decline this past year, and their success later in the year.

 

[BigTex]

Projected Starters: RT Sean Locklear (25), RG Tom Ashworth (29), C Robbie Tobeck (36), LG Floyd Womack (28), LT Walter Jones (32)Key Backups: T/G Sean Locklear, C Chris Spencer (24), T Ray Willis (24), G Rob Sims (rookie)They are young. That may explain their decline this past year, and their success later in the year.

Thank you for posting this. This explains a lot.

 

[Marc Levin]

I think the loss of Hutchinson and Hasselbeck has as much to do with it as youth.

In redraft leagues, more than watching SA next preseason, watch the OL play.

And, actually, I am incorrect - they really are not that young. The C is old, but the guards have enough experience that they should be coming into their prime. And they have Walter Jones.

The loss of Hutchinson probably should not have caused that dramatic a decline, unless, of course, the guards aren't really that atlented and they only appeared ot play well b/c of the bookends.

Chris Smith is really the staff OL expert, and I honestly did not watch enough of the Seahawks this year to give an opinion on the guard play.

 

[Brewzers]

I own SA in a dynasty league and there is no way I'd trade him low, I value him as a top 5 RB over the next 2 years. SA did not take the normal pounding this year and that may buy him another year longevity.

Hey Brewzers, I think it is kind of funny to cite an injury plagued season as a factor in extending SA's career, but I understand your reasoning. Do you think his injury-plagued 2006 was a direct result of a career high in carries in 2005?In 2001 through 2003, SA carried the ball around 300 times each year, but he caught the ball around 50 times each year. There was a change in how the team used SA in 2004 and 2005 - he carried the ball 353 times in '04 and caught only 23 passes and then, in 2005, he ran the ball 370 times and caught only 15 balls.Some other thoughts on SA for next year:1) do you all think Holmgren will scale SA back to around 320 carries, or do you think they will keep his carry numbers high?2) what role will Maurice Morris have next year? He re-signed with the team for three years after SA signed his huge deal, and they took Morris off of return duty. With two-back systems becoming more in vogue now, I wonder what the Seahawks run game will look like next year.3) Both SA and MM had poor YPA - what is up with the OL? The unit also gave up 49 sacks, up from 27 in '05 and 34 in '04.

IMO, the foot fracture was a freak thing, not necessarily a direct result of his carry burden. Holmgren did not show any signs of scaling back SA or introducing RBBC over the last 6 games. I would not downgrade SA's value based on 2006 performance.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I have been trying to get him in my 12 team dynasty. We start 2qb 3rb 4wr

He almost went for Rudi Johnson,C Simms,A Battle, R White and a 2nd rounder.

His team needs everything. Its a PPR league. He wants Rudi and Walker or Evans or TJ Housh and im not doing it. SA is 30 at the start of next season and i cant afford to give top 10-12 WR's up

I would like to have him but im not going to hurt my team 1 or 2 years from now.

I wouldn't go any higher. Rudi = SA in a dynasty IMO.

Rudi is only 2 years younger then Shaun. And while 2 years is large, at 28/30, Shaun assuredly takes less hits and contact then Rudi. And when it comes to fantasy points... Shaun this year pro rates his production slightly higher then Rudi did (187/176 in non ppr), and thats in his and the Seahawks worst of outcomes. Rudi is about 185 points per season for 3 (or 4 pro-rated) straight and about 370 carries.

Meanwhile Shaun, as everyone knows, crushes Rudis numbers over the same span. And the past 3 seasons each have Rudi with more touches! If you want a better chance of winning a title in the next 5 years, Then Im taking Shaun. Easy, peasy lemon squeezy. Now if you are worried about injury concerns with Shaun, okay. But besides that you may be giving up way too many points, enough that could make a difference in getting a title or two along the way.

Not sure if many Rudi owners out there overcame the LTs, LJs, Gores and Jacksons of the world this season. Certainly not when everything else was equal and we are talking about a teams #1 being either Rudi or Shaun. And thats what we are looking at when you compare Rudi with one of those top producers.

I wish I thought Rudi was about to break out for bigger numbers. But I dont at this point.

$.02

Well thats why i offered more than Rudi. But i wouldnt say over the next 5 years. SA will be a legit #1 for about 2 years. He wont be playing at 35.

I agree. I think you misunderstood me. Guessin'... Rudi will be around for 5 more years. Shaun 3.

I think that those 3 years of Shaun give you a better chance at winning a title (or two) then Rudi does in the next 5 years. Even considering Shaun wont be there for 2 of them. My points come from 1per10yard and 4perTD. ('06 Rudi 176/16, Shaun 116/10)

 

[Blackjacks]

Projected Starters: RT Sean Locklear (25), RG Tom Ashworth (29), C Robbie Tobeck (36), LG Floyd Womack (28), LT Walter Jones (32)Key Backups: T/G Sean Locklear, C Chris Spencer (24), T Ray Willis (24), G Rob Sims (rookie)They are young. That may explain their decline this past year, and their success later in the year.

I believe Tobeck is suppose to retire after the season.

 

[fruity pebbles]

As a Rudi owner it would be hard for me to give up "Mr. Consistancy" (plus another WR/RB) for SA. I'd be more inclinded to give Chester Taylor + (WR/RB) before I'd give up Rudi.I maybe overvaluing Rudi but he's just too consistant for my taste.

Over the last three years, in 42 games, SA had only 10 games under 10 FPs.Over the last three years, in 47 games (excluded last year's last game), Rudi had 16 games under 10 points.SA gives you more upside potential, he faces easier defenses in the NFC-W than Rudi faces in the AFC-N, and SA gives you receiving numbers that Rudi does not. I think Rudi plus a player is the right price.

Neither gives you any receiving yards.

 

[Marc Levin]

Last two years, you are correct that SA's rec. numbers seem to have sharply declined, but the guy had 44, 59, and 42 catches from 2001-2003.

Guy can catch the ball - I address this in my list of questions above regarding SA's spike in carries in 2004 and drop in rec.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Last 6 games of the year:

Att Yards TD's

40 201 0

26 90 1

22 76 0

23 73 1

31 140 2

28 92 1

201 carries for 672 and 5 TD's. Sure The YPC suck, but equal that over a full season, and it is 1792 yards and 13 TD's.

If you really believe he's going to get 544 carries next year he is indeed a steal. Of course only LJ got ore than 350 carries this year. And 350 carries would cut his production to roughly 1200 yards and 9 TDs. Still worth owning, but hardly 1st-round value.

 

[Brewzers]

Over the last several years he was the top dog, this year he struggled. So, considering his age and his struggles this year, what is his value?Is he the perfect buy low candidate? What type of value do you see in SA?****Note****I don't have SA in either league. I just notice that he hasn't been talked about like some of the other RBs and like to know what the feeling of the board is.

Interestingly, I looked at the ages of the top 10 RBs (FBG scoring) beginning 2000 to 2006 and only 8 RBs aged 30 or greater have finished in the top ten in those 7 years....30 years old 4 times, 31 years 3 times and 32 once. Here is how a top 10 RB finish breaks down by age over the last 7 years:21 - 222 - 323 - 524 - 1025 - 726 - 827 - 1728 - 629 - 430 - 431 - 332 - 1I also looked at # of carries for a few select elite RBs and consistently elite RBs tend to go south somewhere between 2200 and 2800 touches. It is also interesting that many of these elite runners suffer an injury prior to their career decline. SA will be 30, has 2,169 touches and is coming off an injury....I would consider him a sell high versus a buy low.

 

[Yankee23Fan]

I traded for SA during the year and in that trade I gave up a 3rd rounder. I almost have to keep him even though he will cost me a 1st as well because that is his penalty this year. But, my draft slot puts me at the 7th overall pick. SA at 7 is probably solid and if he is there in a simple redraft I think it's a good spot right now.

Who knows in 5 months though.