Let's talk Tiki... (1 Viewer)

[NYG Endzone]

Ryan & migarvin

 

[migarvin]

if barber fell to the end of round 2 or round 3 definitely grab him but you'd better off letting someone draft him at the turn of round 1 and wait for a back like portis, k jones, j lewis or d davis. These backs will certainly get the redzone carries.

 

[Homer]

Listen, no doubt Tiki had a great year last year under any roster/scoring system, but it's funny seeing all the hype about him coming from people that play in 12 team (or more) leagues that give a generous 1pt/10 yards, either rush or rec. It's been said here a million times, but LOOK AT YOUR SCORING SYSTEM! If you're in a 10 team league and you need 20 yards/pt., Tiki is at BEST a RB3, and really not even worth considering if he's in the <6 TD range that he probably has a 50-50 shot at being this year. Tiki's value is in larger yardage heavy leagues. I think of him as a rich man's (healthier?) Warrick Dunn. If that has 2nd round value in YOUR league, well, GOOD for YOU!

In a standard 12-team league, in order for Tiki to be an RB3 value would mean that Barber finishes RB25 at best. This means you expect Barlow 2004 type of production out of him as a high-end projection.I'll let that statement speak for itself.

Do you even bother to read the posts you misinterpret and proceed to butcher?"If you're in a 10 team league and you need 20 yards/pt., Tiki is at BEST a RB3"

 

[H.K.]

This is what I posted in his spotlight thread months ago, however if Manning is seriously hurt then Tiki's numbers should be slighly adjusted downward as the Giants will rival the Bears as the worst offense in the NFL.

Tiki will not perform up to his 2005 ADP because:

1) Last season 10 of Tiki's 15 TD's were scored inside the five yard line. Coughlin has stated that he will give those opportunities to Jacobs this year. Last season was an anomaly in that regard for Coughlin because Dayne fell apart and ruined Coughlin's plans for him. Coughlin was notorious for using red zone specialists in Jax, so it should surprise nobody that he specifically drafted a guy just to score TD's and convert 3rd and short.

2) Barber accounted for 42% of the Giants total offense in 2004, this number can go nowhere but down in 2005. This coming season we will see an erosion of dump offs to Tiki and an increase in targets to Shockey and jump balls to Burress. Coughlin wants a much more diversified offense this season instead of just riding one guy.

3) Tiki's involvement in the passing game when Eli became the QB were drastically reduced. In Warner's nine starts, Barber had 463 yards receiving compared to Manning's seven starts where he only managed 115 yards.

4) Tiki has been in the league eight seasons. He has been a Top 10 FF RB twice, Top 5 only once (last season). He has never been a Top Ten FF RB two consecutive years and the past five seasons have seen a large variance in his production. He pretty much defines the "every other year" player.

5) Giant WR's had one TD catch in 2004....one! The addition of Burress gives a nice new target for the red zone, so it is safe to assume that WR TD's will increase in 2005 and eat into Tiki's totals from last season.

Assuming he stays healthy as he hits the dreaded "RB at 30 years-old" barrier, Barber still can be a decent to good yardage guy. However, anyone drafting him as an RB1 will see their FF season end at that exact moment.

Projection

268 carries 1121 yards 4.2 avg. 2 TD

45 recept 361 yards 1 TD

 

[TD Ryan]

1260 rushing (126 pts)

350 receiving (36 pts)

8 Total TDs (48 pts)

that's 175 yards and .4 TDs less than Tiki's 5 year average.to what do you attribute such a decline?

is there an injury we don't know about?

do you think the NYGs and Eli Manning will be even worse this year?

Jacobs may or may not steal goal line carries. I personally don't draft a Tiki Barber for TD production... that's a bonus if I get it.

The Giants should be improved as an offense and to me that means Tiki will AT LEAST live up to his average of 1785 total yards.

 

[NYG Endzone]

This is what I posted in his spotlight thread months ago, however if Manning is seriously hurt then Tiki's numbers should be slighly adjusted downward as the Giants will rival the Bears as the worst offense in the NFL.

Giants have a probowl TE and RB though so just a little a better.

 

[H.K.]

This is what I posted in his spotlight thread months ago, however if Manning is seriously hurt then Tiki's numbers should be slighly adjusted downward as the Giants will rival the Bears as the worst offense in the NFL.

Giants have a probowl TE and RB though so just a little a better.

OK, so they have the 2nd worst offense in the NFL then....either way, it would be UGLY.

 

[NYG Endzone]

This is what I posted in his spotlight thread months ago, however if Manning is seriously hurt then Tiki's numbers should be slighly adjusted downward as the Giants will rival the Bears as the worst offense in the NFL.

Giants have a probowl TE and RB though so just a little a better.

OK, so they have the 2nd worst offense in the NFL then....either way, it would be UGLY.

Not even close maybe 20ish. They were about 23rd last year with "hold onto the ball all day" Warner and Eli. This guy McKenzie and Plaxico may help a little too.

 

[TD Ryan]

you can't have your cake and eat it too...

posted by H.K:

if Manning is seriously hurt then Tiki's numbers should be slighly adjusted downward as the Giants will rival the Bears as the worst offense in the NFL.

3) Tiki's involvement in the passing game when Eli became the QB were drastically reduced. In Warner's nine starts, Barber had 463 yards receiving compared to Manning's seven starts where he only managed 115 yards.

Projection

268 carries 1121 yards 4.2 avg. 2 TD

45 recept 361 yards 1 TD

- Manning was awful last year. Either he'll be better this year or he's hurt and whoever takes his place can't do a whole lot worse.- and, respectfully, I can't take those numbers seriously... 1482 total yards? 3TDs? was there an ACL we all missed or something?

 

[Evilgrin 72]

1260 rushing (126 pts)

350 receiving (36 pts)

8 Total TDs (48 pts)

thos look like lamont joradn numbers if he starts every game

if that is running back nine then why westbrook be selected after tiki

westbrook had 1515 yards and 9 total tds while only starting 12 games

tiki barber owners beware!

i like tiki and root for the giants. He's had a great career but he is so unpredictable. Every other year his td's go way down. He is not explosive around the goaline. sure, he can score on 3rd and 1 but so can fred taylor. But did that stop coughlin from using james stewart or stacey mack???? think about it

3 reasons why barber will not live up to a top 10 back status

coughlin loves vultures (see stacey mack, those who say dayne sucked so much are absolutely right)

jeremy shockey and plaxico buress will get plenty of red zone looks

brandon jacobs is the real deal and is the official vulture

Some of this may be, but I am uncomfortable speaking in absolutes. Taylor had a 17 TD system under Coughlin too. It remains to be seen if Jacobs will be a great goal line back - he runs very upright and without a ton of elusiveness, which may hinder him in these situations. Size alone is not the answer, you need great vision and cutting ability to be a great goal-line back. Time will tell if Jacobs is that guy, but I am resistant to declare that until I see Jacobs prove it in regular-season games.Burress is NOT a good red zone target. At all. Take that from me. Shockey has not cut into Barber's TD production severely yet.

FWIW - I didn't have Barber as a top-10 back either. I have him 12th, and think that's reasonable. Even if he scores 5-6 TDs, he will still ikely be a top-15 back and a value as the 19th off the board. This is the point I am making - you said in the other thread that he would be a disappointment for me, so that would mean you see him being RB20 at best. This is what I dispute, but maybe I misunderstood you or you misspoke.

 

[H.K.]

Because Ron Dayne is horrible. The guy consistanty got 0 yards, 1 yard, 0 yards, then would have a 10 yarder.

Jacobs WILL BE THE GOALINE BACK

Yes, but in last year's preseason he looked great. That's all I'm saying - don't get carried away by the hype on Jacobs - the guy hasn't proven a thing yet.

XSorry, but that is incorrect. Dayne fumbled on two consecutive goal line carries in week two of the pre-season versus Carolina and fumbled again the following week and never saw the light of day again.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

1260 rushing (126 pts)

350 receiving (36 pts)

8 Total TDs (48 pts)

that's 175 yards and .4 TDs less than Tiki's 5 year average.to what do you attribute such a decline?

is there an injury we don't know about?

do you think the NYGs and Eli Manning will be even worse this year?

Jacobs may or may not steal goal line carries. I personally don't draft a Tiki Barber for TD production... that's a bonus if I get it.

The Giants should be improved as an offense and to me that means Tiki will AT LEAST live up to his average of 1785 total yards.

He was quoting the projections I had posted earlier, so I will answer this...First off, those were intentionally conservative, low-end projections designed to show how I find it hard to believe that he will be any worst than a top 15 RB (his worst ever production since becoming a starter)...

You can see the thought process behind those numbers above, but I will say that a 175 yard and .4 TD decrease off of his career averages hardly seems drastic (as in hidden injury drastic) given the variables already brought up in this thread (increasing age, doubts about the efficiency of the offense, possible vulturing by Jacobs)...

So even if we use RB15 as his low end, he's a 2nd rounder at worst...

 

[Capella]

I love how everyone annoints this Jacobs guy the goalline back and think he gets 120+ carries this season before he's ever taken a NFL snap. Tiki was the most efficient back in the red zone last year (IIRC) and all of a sudden he's going to lose goalline carries because some 4th-round pick is running over future UPS employees.

 

[fatmnkypants]

Last year, the Giants basically gave up the season when they threw Manning in and knew it. Tiki still rushed for nearly 100 yds a game, but his receptions fell dramatically. However, I read quotes from a Coughlin press conference at the time where he said, they were keeping Tiki in the backfield to better pass protect for Manning. Basically, they were getting Manning as much work as possible without him getting killed, which probally changed their play calling. I would assume this year,there will be a more open playbook and Tiki will catch as much as usual. I do think his TD's will go down though. I suffered with him as my 1st rnd pick his 3td season, and then last year grabbed him in the 5th. Surprise!! glad I did it.He usually is either undervalued or overvalued. Just have to find that medium

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Listen, no doubt Tiki had a great year last year under any roster/scoring system, but it's funny seeing all the hype about him coming from people that play in 12 team (or more) leagues that give a generous 1pt/10 yards, either rush or rec. It's been said here a million times, but LOOK AT YOUR SCORING SYSTEM! If you're in a 10 team league and you need 20 yards/pt., Tiki is at BEST a RB3, and really not even worth considering if he's in the <6 TD range that he probably has a 50-50 shot at being this year. Tiki's value is in larger yardage heavy leagues. I think of him as a rich man's (healthier?) Warrick Dunn. If that has 2nd round value in YOUR league, well, GOOD for YOU!

In a standard 12-team league, in order for Tiki to be an RB3 value would mean that Barber finishes RB25 at best. This means you expect Barlow 2004 type of production out of him as a high-end projection.I'll let that statement speak for itself.

Do you even bother to read the posts you misinterpret and proceed to butcher?"If you're in a 10 team league and you need 20 yards/pt., Tiki is at BEST a RB3"

Well, if you look at the initial post in the thread, you'll see clearly that I am discussing his value in a 12-team league, so ease up with the "misinterpret" comments. I am simply trying to steer the discussion back to the common ground we're all working with. I don't see what his value in a ten-team league has to do with his draft position in a 12-team league, so who's misinterpreting what here?OK, so let's say we are talking a 10-teamer. That means you see Barber as RB21 AT BEST. In other words, his upside is RB21. That would mean about 1100-1200 combined yards and 6 TDs as a TOP END prediction, with room to fall short of those pedestrian numbers. Is this what you're saying?

If so, please justify this, as Barber hasn't come anywhere near posting those numbers since he became the starter for the Giants.

If not, your statement is completely erroneous.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

And for those projecting 100+ carries for Jacobs, I think you are seriously over-estimating how many touches he will get...He is going to be a non-factor coming out of the backfield, so he won't be in there in 3rd downs, which pretty much limits him to short yardage and the occasional 1st or 2nd down carry to spell Barber...I don't think that happens 100+ times...Everyone keeps on pointing to Stacey Mack as an analogy...Except for the year when Taylor got hurt in Week 2 and missed the rest of the season, Mack never carried the ball more than 100 times...

 

[H.K.]

you can't have your cake and eat it too...

posted by H.K:

if Manning is seriously hurt then Tiki's numbers should be slighly adjusted downward as the Giants will rival the Bears as the worst offense in the NFL.

3) Tiki's involvement in the passing game when Eli became the QB were drastically reduced. In Warner's nine starts, Barber had 463 yards receiving compared to Manning's seven starts where he only managed 115 yards.

Projection

268 carries 1121 yards 4.2 avg. 2 TD

45 recept 361 yards 1 TD

- Manning was awful last year. Either he'll be better this year or he's hurt and whoever takes his place can't do a whole lot worse.- and, respectfully, I can't take those numbers seriously... 1482 total yards? 3TDs? was there an ACL we all missed or something?

Over 310 touches and nearly 1500 yards is a very good year for any RB, that's just under 20 touches for almost 100 yards a week, so its not like I am selling him short. By the way, Tiki did not hurt his ACL in 2001 or 2003 and what were his TD totals those years? What's that? Speak up, I can't hear you....oh, well, with numbers that low no wonder you mumbled...

 

[migarvin]

he will disappoint owners who feel barber will produce the way he did last year. There is no way he scores 12 tds and 1900 yards

he will be vultured

giants have better red zone targets Burress is NOT a good red zone target. At all. Take that from me. Shockey has not cut into Barber's TD production severely yet.

what are you talking about. Name another receiver that scored over chris mcalister twice in one game. Burress is certainly a red zone target.

defense know they ahve to key on barber becasue he's good and proven, manning is not

 

[Tremendous Upside]

I love how everyone annoints this Jacobs guy the goalline back and think he gets 120+ carries this season before he's ever taken a NFL snap.

Tiki was the most efficient back in the red zone last year (IIRC) and all of a sudden he's going to lose goalline carries because some 4th-round pick is running over future UPS employees.

Jacobs was in a RBBC in Div-AA...

Read that again...

In the Gateway conference he split carries...

But now he's a serious threat to the carries of one of the most consistent and prductive backs of recent vintage?

You guys are all drooling over Jacobs' size...He's not a TE...He's a RB...Generally, that size is a detriment at RB, not a benefit...

 

[Tremendous Upside]

he will disappoint owners who feel barber will produce the way he did last year. There is no way he scores 12 tds and 1900 yards

he will be vultured

giants have better red zone targets Burress is NOT a good red zone target. At all. Take that from me. Shockey has not cut into Barber's TD production severely yet.

what are you talking about. Name another receiver that scored over chris mcalister twice in one game. Burress is certainly a red zone target.

defense know they ahve to key on barber becasue he's good and proven, manning is not

I haven't seen anyone projecting Barber as RB2 (which is what he did last year) or expecting a repeat performance...But expecting him to put up his WORST fantasy football season as a starter due to the presence of a rookie who has yet to take a NFL snap seems a bit Chicken Little to me...

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Because Ron Dayne is horrible. The guy consistanty got 0 yards, 1 yard, 0 yards, then would have a 10 yarder.

Jacobs WILL BE THE GOALINE BACK

Yes, but in last year's preseason he looked great. That's all I'm saying - don't get carried away by the hype on Jacobs - the guy hasn't proven a thing yet.

XSorry, but that is incorrect. Dayne fumbled on two consecutive goal line carries in week two of the pre-season versus Carolina and fumbled again the following week and never saw the light of day again.

DAYNE LOOKS GREATDAYNE IS A SUPERSTUD

DAYNE/BARBER to SPLIT WORKLOAD

DAYNE TO BE SHORT YARDAGE BACK

You can rescind that red x any time now. There are at least 4-5 other such threads.....

 

[Evilgrin 72]

what are you talking about. Name another receiver that scored over chris mcalister twice in one game. Burress is certainly a red zone target.

I have watched every snap the guy has played since the minute he entered the league.You are in for a rude awakening if you think Burress will be a red zone force, mark my words.

 

[Capella]

Because Ron Dayne is horrible. The guy consistanty got 0 yards, 1 yard, 0 yards, then would have a 10 yarder.

Jacobs WILL BE THE GOALINE BACK

Yes, but in last year's preseason he looked great. That's all I'm saying - don't get carried away by the hype on Jacobs - the guy hasn't proven a thing yet.

XSorry, but that is incorrect. Dayne fumbled on two consecutive goal line carries in week two of the pre-season versus Carolina and fumbled again the following week and never saw the light of day again.

DAYNE LOOKS GREATDAYNE IS A SUPERSTUD

DAYNE/BARBER to SPLIT WORKLOAD

DAYNE TO BE SHORT YARDAGE BACK

You can rescind that red x any time now. There are at least 4-5 other such threads.....

HEY, look at this quote from me last year...

:rotflmao:

It's preseason, relax. He probably is playing against future Arena-leaguers.

 

[TD Ryan]

and as far as Tiki's "age" and all the "30 years old" concerns...

a RBs age is determined by the pounding and number of carries he takes.

Tiki has 1532 career carries.

other RBs in the ballpark of Tiki's carries (who in football years are about as old):

Shaun Alexander - 1347

Ladanian Tomlinson - 1363

Edge - 1828

Jamal Lewis - 1239

W Dunn - 1690

P Holmes - 1615

Fred Taylor 1637

Ricky Williams - 1589

Others of note:

Curtis Martin - 3298

Dillon - 2210

M Faulk - 2771

Bettis - 3369

Walter Payton - 3838

Eddie George - 2865

Jim Brown - 2359

Earl Campbell - 2187

Barry Sanders - 3062

Ricky Watters - 2622

 

[H.K.]

Because Ron Dayne is horrible. The guy consistanty got 0 yards, 1 yard, 0 yards, then would have a 10 yarder.

Jacobs WILL BE THE GOALINE BACK

Yes, but in last year's preseason he looked great. That's all I'm saying - don't get carried away by the hype on Jacobs - the guy hasn't proven a thing yet.

XSorry, but that is incorrect. Dayne fumbled on two consecutive goal line carries in week two of the pre-season versus Carolina and fumbled again the following week and never saw the light of day again.

DAYNE LOOKS GREATDAYNE IS A SUPERSTUD

DAYNE/BARBER to SPLIT WORKLOAD

DAYNE TO BE SHORT YARDAGE BACK

You can rescind that red x any time now. There are at least 4-5 other such threads.....

Threads mean nothing, here is all you need to know from the Panther game last pre-season:

New York Giants at 12:59

1-10-NYG36 (12:59) R.Dayne left guard to NYG 40 for 4 yards (C.Randall).

2-6-NYG40 (12:31) K.Warner pass to M.Rivers to CAR 49 for 11 yards (C.Randall).

1-10-CAR49 (11:56) R.Dayne up the middle to CAR 38 for 11 yards (A.Wallace).

1-10-CAR38 (11:56) PENALTY on CAR-D.Duckett, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 38 - No Play.

1-5-CAR33 (11:01) K.Warner pass incomplete to R.Dayne (K.Rasmussen).

2-5-CAR33 (10:57) R.Dayne right guard to CAR 29 for 4 yards (B.Short).

3-1-CAR29 (10:19) R.Dayne right end pushed ob at CAR 14 for 15 yards (B.Short).

1-10-CAR14 (9:45) R.Dayne up the middle to CAR 11 for 3 yards (K.Rasmussen).

2-7-CAR11 (9:07) K.Warner pass to W.Ponder to CAR 7 for 4 yards (W.Hampton).

3-3-CAR7 (8:29) K.Warner left end to CAR 3 for 4 yards (T.Shaw).

1-3-CAR3 (7:45) R.Dayne right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play Challenged by CAR and REVERSED. R.Dayne right tackle to CAR 1 for 2 yards (B.Short).

2-1-CAR1 (7:37) R.Dayne right tackle to CAR 1 for no gain. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by CAR-D.Wesley at CAR 0. D.Wesley tackled in End Zone, SAFETY NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on CAR-D.Duckett, Defensive Offside, 0 yards, enforced at CAR 1 - No Play.

2-1-CAR1 (7:31) R.Dayne right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

T.France extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Dach, Holder-J.Feagles.

NYG 13 CAR 17, Plays: 11 Yards: 64 Possession: 5:32.

Ron Dayne actually fumbled twice in a row at the goal line. As indicated, the initial fumble was reversed. However, he fumbled again when he scored the TD, which is not noted in the official scoring. Dayne very luckily recovered his second fumble in the end zone. However, when he came off the field he was hanging his head and his teamates were consoling him...interesting way to celebrate a TD, huh? Essentially, that series cost Dayne the GL role in NY. The TV cameras focused in on a very PO'ed Coughlin and showed a dejected Dayne while the announcers commented on the HC's hatred for not protecting the ball. The next week, Dayne fumbled again versus Baltimore early in that game, too. This is what opened the door for Barber to get all RB work last year. If Dayne didn't put those balls on the carpet, the Giant running game would have worked completely different in 2004. Undeterred in his search for a designated touchdown scorer, Coughlin hand picked Jacobs specifically for the job.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Because Ron Dayne is horrible. The guy consistanty got 0 yards, 1 yard, 0 yards, then would have a 10 yarder.

Jacobs WILL BE THE GOALINE BACK

Meanwhile, a year ago......

I have hated Dayne since the day big blue drafted him. So for me supporting his improvement should be mind boggling...

+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Rushing | Receiving |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| 2000 nyg | 16 | 228 770 3.4 5 | 3 11 3.7 0

He was able to put up almost 800 combined yards and 5 td's. Now with Coughlin coaching I dont think he could do any worse then these totals.

If he is in "the best shape ever" why wouldn't you expect or why cant he put up better numbers?

 

[migarvin]

I have watched every snap the guy has played since the minute he entered the league.

You are in for a rude awakening if you think Burress will be a red zone force, mark my words.

"Spike it but not down" is not mr consistency. But if you've seen every play you know what game i'm talking about.. Give him time. He has dominating potential. Hines is not a red zone threat you know that. The games i have watched Buress in, i have seen the defenses top corner cover him almost exclusively around the endzone, but maybe becuase he is real big. Who konws. Him and Shockey will be ill together. Burress has had a different starting qb almost every year in this leage. Roethlisberger had a nice rapport with plaxico. I think you will miss him more than you realize.

Why am i defeinding Burress again? :X

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Because Ron Dayne is horrible. The guy consistanty got 0 yards, 1 yard, 0 yards, then would have a 10 yarder.

Jacobs WILL BE THE GOALINE BACK

Yes, but in last year's preseason he looked great. That's all I'm saying - don't get carried away by the hype on Jacobs - the guy hasn't proven a thing yet.

XSorry, but that is incorrect. Dayne fumbled on two consecutive goal line carries in week two of the pre-season versus Carolina and fumbled again the following week and never saw the light of day again.

DAYNE LOOKS GREATDAYNE IS A SUPERSTUD

DAYNE/BARBER to SPLIT WORKLOAD

DAYNE TO BE SHORT YARDAGE BACK

You can rescind that red x any time now. There are at least 4-5 other such threads.....

HEY, look at this quote from me last year...

:rotflmao:

It's preseason, relax. He probably is playing against future Arena-leaguers.

I saw that. then AND now....

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I have watched every snap the guy has played since the minute he entered the league.

You are in for a rude awakening if you think Burress will be a red zone force, mark my words.

"Spike it but not down" is not mr consistency. But if you've seen every play you know what game i'm talking about.. Give him time. He has dominating potential. Hines is not a red zone threat you know that. The games i have watched Buress in, i have seen the defenses top corner cover him almost exclusively around the endzone, but maybe becuase he is real big. Who konws. Him and Shockey will be ill together. Burress has had a different starting qb almost every year in this leage. Roethlisberger had a nice rapport with plaxico. I think you will miss him more than you realize.

Why am i defeinding Burress again? :X

He's big, but he doesn't use his body to his advantage effectively and he doesn't have great hands. He's not nearly the red zone threat he could be. Believe me, I spent four years waiting for it to happen - never did.

 

[TD Ryan]

again, this really isn't about Tiki's TD totals.It's his 1700 total yards and the number of touches he gets every game that I'll happilly take as an elite #2/decent #1 fantasy RB.the more times a guy touches the ball, the more likely he is to break one.give Brandon "Div. 1AA RBBC" Jacobs the goal line carries. Tiki is still worthy of a late first, early second round pick (12 teamer).

 

[NYG Endzone]

Because Ron Dayne is horrible. The guy consistanty got 0 yards, 1 yard, 0 yards, then would have a 10 yarder.

Jacobs WILL BE THE GOALINE BACK

Meanwhile, a year ago......

I have hated Dayne since the day big blue drafted him. So for me supporting his improvement should be mind boggling...

+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Rushing | Receiving |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| 2000 nyg | 16 | 228 770 3.4 5 | 3 11 3.7 0

He was able to put up almost 800 combined yards and 5 td's. Now with Coughlin coaching I dont think he could do any worse then these totals.

If he is in "the best shape ever" why wouldn't you expect or why cant he put up better numbers?

Excellent research. You get an A-. Fantasy football is speculation imagine that

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Because Ron Dayne is horrible. The guy consistanty got 0 yards, 1 yard, 0 yards, then would have a 10 yarder.

Jacobs WILL BE THE GOALINE BACK

Yes, but in last year's preseason he looked great. That's all I'm saying - don't get carried away by the hype on Jacobs - the guy hasn't proven a thing yet.

XSorry, but that is incorrect. Dayne fumbled on two consecutive goal line carries in week two of the pre-season versus Carolina and fumbled again the following week and never saw the light of day again.

DAYNE LOOKS GREATDAYNE IS A SUPERSTUD

DAYNE/BARBER to SPLIT WORKLOAD

DAYNE TO BE SHORT YARDAGE BACK

You can rescind that red x any time now. There are at least 4-5 other such threads.....

Threads mean nothing, here is all you need to know from the Panther game last pre-season:

New York Giants at 12:59

1-10-NYG36 (12:59) R.Dayne left guard to NYG 40 for 4 yards (C.Randall).

2-6-NYG40 (12:31) K.Warner pass to M.Rivers to CAR 49 for 11 yards (C.Randall).

1-10-CAR49 (11:56) R.Dayne up the middle to CAR 38 for 11 yards (A.Wallace).

1-10-CAR38 (11:56) PENALTY on CAR-D.Duckett, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 38 - No Play.

1-5-CAR33 (11:01) K.Warner pass incomplete to R.Dayne (K.Rasmussen).

2-5-CAR33 (10:57) R.Dayne right guard to CAR 29 for 4 yards (B.Short).

3-1-CAR29 (10:19) R.Dayne right end pushed ob at CAR 14 for 15 yards (B.Short).

1-10-CAR14 (9:45) R.Dayne up the middle to CAR 11 for 3 yards (K.Rasmussen).

2-7-CAR11 (9:07) K.Warner pass to W.Ponder to CAR 7 for 4 yards (W.Hampton).

3-3-CAR7 (8:29) K.Warner left end to CAR 3 for 4 yards (T.Shaw).

1-3-CAR3 (7:45) R.Dayne right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play Challenged by CAR and REVERSED. R.Dayne right tackle to CAR 1 for 2 yards (B.Short).

2-1-CAR1 (7:37) R.Dayne right tackle to CAR 1 for no gain. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by CAR-D.Wesley at CAR 0. D.Wesley tackled in End Zone, SAFETY NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on CAR-D.Duckett, Defensive Offside, 0 yards, enforced at CAR 1 - No Play.

2-1-CAR1 (7:31) R.Dayne right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

T.France extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Dach, Holder-J.Feagles.

NYG 13  CAR 17,  Plays: 11  Yards: 64  Possession: 5:32.

Ron Dayne actually fumbled twice in a row at the goal line. As indicated, the initial fumble was reversed. However, he fumbled again when he scored the TD, which is not noted in the official scoring. Dayne very luckily recovered his second fumble in the end zone. However, when he came off the field he was hanging his head and his teamates were consoling him...interesting way to celebrate a TD, huh? Essentially, that series cost Dayne the GL role in NY. The TV cameras focused in on a very PO'ed Coughlin and showed a dejected Dayne while the announcers commented on the HC's hatred for not protecting the ball. The next week, Dayne fumbled again versus Baltimore early in that game, too. This is what opened the door for Barber to get all RB work last year. If Dayne didn't put those balls on the carpet, the Giant running game would have worked completely different in 2004. Undeterred in his search for a designated touchdown scorer, Coughlin hand picked Jacobs specifically for the job.

Obviously, Dayne blew it. The point I'm making is that a year ago, almost to the day, Dayne was EXACTLY where Jacobs is now. let's wait until the kid does something in a real game before we tab him as Stacey Mack II.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Because Ron Dayne is horrible. The guy consistanty got 0 yards, 1 yard, 0 yards, then would have a 10 yarder.

Jacobs WILL BE THE GOALINE BACK

Meanwhile, a year ago......

I have hated Dayne since the day big blue drafted him. So for me supporting his improvement should be mind boggling...

+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Rushing | Receiving |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| 2000 nyg | 16 | 228 770 3.4 5 | 3 11 3.7 0

He was able to put up almost 800 combined yards and 5 td's. Now with Coughlin coaching I dont think he could do any worse then these totals.

If he is in "the best shape ever" why wouldn't you expect or why cant he put up better numbers?

Excellent research. You get an A-. Fantasy football is speculation imagine that

Precisely. All I am saying is let's wait and see - don't be so quick to jump on Jacobs as a 700 yard 7 TD guy, because you predicted the same for Dayne last year, even though "he sucks."

 

[NYG Endzone]

P.S. Dayne has little relavence in this thread. He is not the NYG back that all NYG RB2s should be judged by. Pick Tiki in round two and let see what shakes out with the carries

 

[Evilgrin 72]

P.S. Dayne has little relavence in this thread. He is not the NYG back that all NYG RB2s should be judged by. Pick Tiki in round two and let see what shakes out with the carries

I did and we will see. I hope he does well, obviously and I'm sure you do too. The only point I was trying to make was that just because Jacobs looks good in the preseason thus far doesn't mean he's going to get 700+ yards and 7 TDs. Dayne is relevant in that last year, he was getting the EXACT same run that Jacobs is getting now, and we all know how that turned out.

 

[NYG Endzone]

P.S. Dayne has little relavence in this thread. He is not the NYG back that all NYG RB2s should be judged by. Pick Tiki in round two and let see what shakes out with the carries

I did and we will see. I hope he does well, obviously and I'm sure you do too. The only point I was trying to make was that just because Jacobs looks good in the preseason thus far doesn't mean he's going to get 700+ yards and 7 TDs. Dayne is relevant in that last year, he was getting the EXACT same run that Jacobs is getting now, and we all know how that turned out.

Dayne had his chance to shine in his 1st year right (2000)? Jacobs will get his.

 

[H.K.]

Obviously, Dayne blew it. The point I'm making is that a year ago, almost to the day, Dayne was EXACTLY where Jacobs is now. let's wait until the kid does something in a real game before we tab him as Stacey Mack II.

Agree 100%. However, the key is that Dayne had the job and lost it, thus paving the way for Tiki to have a career year. As of now, Brandon Jacobs has not lost his job as short yardage/GL RB.....he may, but he hasn't yet. Remember Ahman Green's numbers in 2003? 20 TD's! Well above his normal output. We know what happened last year with him, he came back to earth.

My projection is out there for all to see, I think Tiki is good for about 210 FF points in PPR leagues this year. That puts him around RB17 in the same scoring system compared to output in 2004.....basically a decent RB2.

Most people on this board have a hard time looking beyond the previous season's statistics when doing projections. Even FBG has Tiki scoring 11 TD's this season. There is no chance of that happening. None, nada, zilch.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Most people on this board have a hard time looking beyond the previous season's statistics when doing projections. Even FBG has Tiki scoring 11 TD's this season. There is no chance of that happening. None, nada, zilch.

Pretty strong words when Barber has got 11 TDs, 2 out of his past 3 years.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Even FBG has Tiki scoring 11 TD's this season. There is no chance of that happening. None, nada, zilch.

NO chance is a bold statement. Jacobs could blow his knee out tomorrow for all we know, then Barber would be the only option at RB unless you like Mike Cloud as the GL back.

 

[H.K.]

Even FBG has Tiki scoring 11 TD's this season. There is no chance of that happening. None, nada, zilch.

NO chance is a bold statement. Jacobs could blow his knee out tomorrow for all we know, then Barber would be the only option at RB unless you like Mike Cloud as the GL back.

Ward would get the GL love in that instance. Death, taxes, & Tiki ain't scoring eleven in 2005.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Even FBG has Tiki scoring 11 TD's this season. There is no chance of that happening. None, nada, zilch.

NO chance is a bold statement. Jacobs could blow his knee out tomorrow for all we know, then Barber would be the only option at RB unless you like Mike Cloud as the GL back.

Ward would get the GL love in that instance. Death, taxes, & Tiki ain't scoring eleven in 2005.

Despite Barber being the one of the best GL back in the league last season, right?

 

[TD Ryan]

My projection is out there for all to see, I think Tiki is good for about 210 FF points in PPR leagues this year.

1500 total yards, 60 catches, and ZERO TDs will equal 210 FF points in a PPR league.where do you come up with these numbers?????in 2003, widely considered Tiki's "BUST" year he tallied 1677 total yards, 3TDs, 69 recpts (that's 254 FF points in a PPR league)nobody's looking at last year's stats alone to make any predictions on Tiki.Christ! 2 sentences above this, I looked at his worst year and those numbers are way beyond what your abacus keeps spitting out.Tiki's 5 year average, in a PPR league is 295.3 FF points.Considering there are no significant injuries.Considering that the NYG's offense has nowhere to go but up.I'll bank on him producing... oh.... right about his average.

 

[Billy Bats]

Had the #1 pick over the weekend in a re-draft, took LT, then Chad Johnson and Tiki on the 2-3 turn. I'm expecting and will be thrilled with 1300, 8-10 tds rushing with 400, 4tds rec. as my #2. I think I'm loaded up pretty good.

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

There is no question Jacobs, at this point having not played one pro down, is all hype. There is also no question that he has the physical tools and hardnosed style to succeed in the NFL. But he will require an amount of NFL experience before he understands -- and exploits -- the game at that level.And let's also not forget that he is playing behind one of the most efficient and consistent backs in the league, a guy who has been entrenched as the cornerstone of the Giant's offence for years.But hey, Jacobs is playing in New York, the town that turned a preseason stiff-arm and DB steamroll by Shockey into one of the most celebrated preseason moments of all time. I swear, people here know where they were when that happened, just like the moon landing or something.Let's settle with the more realistic expectations -- like that he will act as the team's #2; see the stripe situationally, if only to save Tiki from the hard yardage; and be in on short yardage power sets.But to those who are scoffing at the huge stats people are predicting -- I don't deny your skepticism, but I don't think you can deny that there is still cause for at least some wild enthusiasm over Jacobs. The hype for Shockey, IMHO, went on to be completely justified. So it's exciting to think of the possibilities Jacobs brings to the table.Maybe it's me. I like the big backs -- guys like Okoye and Dickerson and even Eddie George in his prime. Guys who not only hit holes quick and ran right downhill from there, but guys who also had a few jukes to get into the backfield, where it was near impossible to bring them down. Even as a Raider fan, it was hard not to admire a guy nicknamed the Nigerian Nightmare.At 6'4, 256, Jacobs's combination of punishing power and size is very intriguing. There was a lot of talk about him bowling over DEs during training camp. But in the preseason games I've seen, he's been successful exploding through piles, as well as breaking out to the outside with some finesse...and showing decent gears doing it.I think there is no doubt Jacobs will see goal line duty -- possibly a lot if he shows he can be successful there. But I think there is no doubt that the impact to Tiki's value, though distinct, is limited. If Jacobs proves himself in the first half of the season, I think it's feasible that we may just see a Thunder and Lightning distribution -- but mostly late in games when the D is blowing and ball control is key. The Giants are traditionally a run-first team, and Eli's injury puts the onus even more upon the rushing game. Coming off the bench with a fresh set of legs in the second half, Jacobs could put up some great performances as tired D's adjust from Tiki's versatility to the rookie's in-your-grill power.

 

[P Boy]

Here's the guys in the last 3 years who have had 1000+ touches (w/ number of touches in that time):

1	LaDainian Tomlinson	1253	5'-10"	221 lbs	26 yrs2	Shaun Alexander	1097	5'-11"	225 lbs	27 yrs3	Tiki Barber	1092	5'10"	200 lbs	30 yrs4	Deuce McAllister	1090	6'-1"	232 lbs	26 yrs5	Curtis Martin	1080	5-11"	210 lbs	32 yrs6	Edgerrin James	1047	6'-0"	214 lbs	27 yrs7	Clinton Portis	1046	5'-11"	205 lbs	23 yrs8	Ahman Green	1044	6'-0"	218 lbs	28 yrs9	Fred Taylor	1021	6'-1"	234 lbs	29yrs10	Jamal Lewis	1012	5'-11"	245 lbs	25 yrs

You'll notice that Barber is the lightest, the smallest, & also the second oldest. Lack of size & aging are not condusive to staying on a list like this. Coughlin has stated numerous times that he needs to lighten the load on Barber. Barber even wants his workload lightened.Barber has averaged 364 touches a year over that span. To say Coughlin is going to lighten the load, and he is going to use Jacobs on the goal line, I don't quite understand why it is such a wild stretch of the imagination that Barber drop down to 300 touches, give or take. The only reason why it hasn't happened to date is that the Giants couldn't find a competent RB to reduce his workload.That's right about where my projections put him. Are they that farfetched?

 

[dancingbones]

There is no question Jacobs, at this point having not played one pro down, is all hype.

There is also no question that he has the physical tools and hardnosed style to succeed in the NFL. But he will require an amount of NFL experience before he understands -- and exploits -- the game at that level.

And let's also not forget that he is playing behind one of the most efficient and consistent backs in the league, a guy who has been entrenched as the cornerstone of the Giant's offence for years.

But hey, Jacobs is playing in New York, the town that turned a preseason stiff-arm and DB steamroll by Shockey into one of the most celebrated preseason moments of all time. I swear, people here know where they were when that happened, just like the moon landing or something.

Let's settle with the more realistic expectations -- like that he will act as the team's #2; see the stripe situationally, if only to save Tiki from the hard yardage; and be in on short yardage power sets.

But to those who are scoffing at the huge stats people are predicting -- I don't deny your skepticism, but I don't think you can deny that there is still cause for at least some wild enthusiasm over Jacobs. The hype for Shockey, IMHO, went on to be completely justified. So it's exciting to think of the possibilities Jacobs brings to the table.

Maybe it's me. I like the big backs -- guys like Okoye and Dickerson and even Eddie George in his prime. Guys who not only hit holes quick and ran right downhill from there, but guys who also had a few jukes to get into the backfield, where it was near impossible to bring them down. Even as a Raider fan, it was hard not to admire a guy nicknamed the Nigerian Nightmare.

At 6'4, 256, Jacobs's combination of punishing power and size is very intriguing.

There was a lot of talk about him bowling over DEs during training camp. But in the preseason games I've seen, he's been successful exploding through piles, as well as breaking out to the outside with some finesse...and showing decent gears doing it.

I think there is no doubt Jacobs will see goal line duty -- possibly a lot if he shows he can be successful there. But I think there is no doubt that the impact to Tiki's value, though distinct, is limited.

If Jacobs proves himself in the first half of the season, I think it's feasible that we may just see a Thunder and Lightning distribution -- but mostly late in games when the D is blowing and ball control is key.

The Giants are traditionally a run-first team, and Eli's injury puts the onus even more upon the rushing game. Coming off the bench with a fresh set of legs in the second half, Jacobs could put up some great performances as tired D's adjust from Tiki's versatility to the rookie's in-your-grill power.

 

[radballs.]

he will disappoint owners who feel barber will produce the way he did last year.  There is no way he scores 12 tds and 1900 yards

Who is projecting this outside of LHUCKS? I don't see him going in the top 10 of most drafts. He was a top 3 player in 1 ppr leagues last year. He can still be had in the late 2nd in many drafts. IMO, he's getting discounted too much because of Jacobs and not enough because of Eli Manning at the helm. He's still top 8 to 12 RBs though depending on scoring rules.

 

[P Boy]

Who is projecting this outside of LHUCKS? I don't see him going in the top 10 of most drafts. He was a top 3 player in 1 ppr leagues last year. He can still be had in the late 2nd in many drafts. IMO, he's getting discounted too much because of Jacobs and not enough because of Eli Manning at the helm. He's still top 8 to 12 RBs though depending on scoring rules.

Barber's ADP in Phenoms is 1.12, the 10th RB off the board. If people are drafting for value, they're expecting Barber to perform like a top 6 RB. If people are taking him as the BPA, they're still expecting 1st round numbers out of him.That makes this debate very relevant.

 

[migarvin]

people are also arguing barber can be had in the 3rd round?

WTF are you saying. I've conducted 5 drafts, either 10 or 12 teams. He was drated in the high 2nd round every single time. 17th or higher overall

He will disappoint all those who take him at that slot. Like last year when c portis, deuce, j lewis, ahman green and fred taylor never lived up to their first round billing

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Here's the guys in the last 3 years who have had 1000+ touches (w/ number of touches in that time):

1 LaDainian Tomlinson 1253 5'-10" 221 lbs 26 yrs2 Shaun Alexander 1097 5'-11" 225 lbs 27 yrs3 Tiki Barber 1092 5'10" 200 lbs 30 yrs4 Deuce McAllister 1090 6'-1" 232 lbs 26 yrs5 Curtis Martin 1080 5-11" 210 lbs 32 yrs6 Edgerrin James 1047 6'-0" 214 lbs 27 yrs7 Clinton Portis 1046 5'-11" 205 lbs 23 yrs8 Ahman Green 1044 6'-0" 218 lbs 28 yrs9 Fred Taylor 1021 6'-1" 234 lbs 29yrs10 Jamal Lewis 1012 5'-11" 245 lbs 25 yrsYou'll notice that Barber is the lightest, the smallest, & also the second oldest. Lack of size & aging are not condusive to staying on a list like this. Coughlin has stated numerous times that he needs to lighten the load on Barber. Barber even wants his workload lightened.Barber has averaged 364 touches a year over that span. To say Coughlin is going to lighten the load, and he is going to use Jacobs on the goal line, I don't quite understand why it is such a wild stretch of the imagination that Barber drop down to 300 touches, give or take. The only reason why it hasn't happened to date is that the Giants couldn't find a competent RB to reduce his workload.

That's right about where my projections put him. Are they that farfetched?

I don't think they're that far fetched, and I appreciate the thought that went into your projection, but I think you may be overestimating Jacobs' impact just a little considering the guy has never taken a regular-season snap. This may well be the plan going in, but what I am saying is that Jacobs still has a lot to prove on this level before he will warrant this kind of workload. It may happen, it may not, but I am more comfortable projecting Tiki to get 330 touches and most of the goal line work than I am projecting Jacobs to get 120 touches and most of the goal line work. I've seen what Tiki can do and I am not yet ready to downgrade him based on the potential of a rookie 4th round pick. Of course, if Jacobs comes out and blows up this year, next year would be a different story, but I am not ready to cede 30% of Tiki's workload to an unproven player...P.S. I only mention Jacobs' draft position because while a 1st round pick who signs a $10 million dollar contract is often expected to make an impact right away, a guy drafted in round 4, and as such is inexpensive, can be given plenty of time to learn the offense on the cheap and be groomed into a potential feature back down the road.