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Let's talk Tiki... (1 Viewer)

Evilgrin 72

Distributor of Pain
I have seen a couple of people in another thread I started talking about how I will be disappointed by Tiki Barber this year. I drafted him at #23 overall as my RB2 in a redraft yesterday - 1 pt per 20 yds rush/rec, 6 pts all TDs.I am trying to figure out how he could possibly disappoint, especially at that draft spot. Are people really thinking that Brandon Jacobs is So good that he is going to essentially divide the Giants' RB fantasy points evenly with Barber? I think he was a steal there, due to :1) I've heard is that Tiki is in the best shape of his career physically2) The fumbling problems seem to be all but a thing of the past3) Coughlin teams more or less NEVER throw the ball inside the 10 (see Brunell's red zone TD totals his whole career and Warner/Manning's last year) and Barber was VERY effective at the goal line last year.4) With Eli still learning the offense, the Giants are much more likely to continue to lean on Tiki while the passing game develops.5) The addition of Burress should open things up underneath even more.6) The Giants O-line is improved.Now, maybe last year was a bolt of lightning for Barber, but for those predicting a cataclysmic crash, on what are you basing this? I projected Tiki for 1,200 yards rushing, 450 receiving, and 9 combined TDs, which would represent a 40% drop in TDs and a 20% drop in yardage, and he STILL represented easily the best value on the board at #23. So, why would I be disappointed? Tiki haters, get to hating.

 

Tremendous Upside

Footballguy
The following was my response to Harrier's ranking of Tiki in his last set of rankings:I think you are underrating Barber here...you have him at RB18...Since he became the starter in 2000, he has not ended up any lower than RB15 in a season, and that includes two seasons (2000 and 2001) where he split the carries 50/50 with Ron Dayne...Barber's YPC since he became a starter has been around 4.7 YPC...Even if we are conservative, I don't see a YPC below 4.5 for Tiki...The Giants ran the ball 424 times last year, good for 21st in the league...given the fact that Manning is still a very young QB who has not shown a lot as a starter, I don't think it is unreasonable to think they will have at least 400 carries this season...Barber had 76% of the team's carres last season, and flourished doing so...Even with Jacobs in the fold, I don't see how that # drops below 70% at the worst...So if we go for 70% of 400 carries at 4.5 YPC, we end up with 1260 yards rushing (126 points)...Tiki has always been a great receiving RB, averaging 586 yards receiving as a starter, with an 8.8 yards per reception average...Last year he had his fewest # of catches since he became a starter, and still reeled in 52, although his receptions did drop off with Manning under center...I think 45 catches is, again, a conservative estimation, and even if we drop his YPC down to 8 (below his carrer average), that gives him right around 360 yards receiving (36 points)...That brings us to TDs, which really is the crux of the issue...Jacobs has looked very impressive in camp, and he is sure big enough to be a GL back (6'4", 256)...Barber did score 12 of his 15 TDs last year from within the 10, which would seem to indicate that he'd be ripe for vulturing...I would agree, to a degree...Early in his career as a starter, when he was the Lightning in the Thuder-Lightning backfield, he was not yet an established runner in the league, and many thought he was merely a change of pace/3rd down back...Even despite this, however, Barber led the team in TD rushes 2 of the 3 years Dayne received carries as well...Which brings us to the disasterous 2003 campaign, where Barber only scored 3 TDs (which, BTW, was the reason he was so undervalued last year at this time...The thing is, the Giants only rushed for 6 TDs as a team...the 2003 Giants were an awful team (4-12) with an AWFUL offensive line...Now the offensive line improved leaps and bounds last season, and Barber rolled, with 13 rushing TDs...Now I do not expect him to match that number, but I also think you are overestimating how much Jabos will "vulture" Barber...Jacobs is a rookie who played against 1-AA competition...To assume that he will just step in and take a high percentage of carries (GL or otherwise) away from Barber, who has become one of the best all around backs in the league and a very proficient red zone back, seems unlikely to me...I think Jacobs will "vulture" some TDs from Barber, but even if he scores 4 or 5, I think that barber should not have a problem scoring 8 total TDs, his average TD prodcution as a starter (48 points)...So given what I feel is a VERY conservative projection, Barber ends up with:1260 rushing (126 pts)350 receiving (36 pts)8 Total TDs (48 pts)for a total of 210 points, which would have ranked him as RB9 last season...

 

Jason Wood

Zoo York
Brandon Jacobs has looked good, and there's been no bigger supporter of his efforts than Barber (recall that Barber pimped Dayne as the short yardage back last year too), but once again it appears people have WAY, WAY, WAY overshot their conservatism when it comes to Barber's 2005 output. If healthy, how he won't be top 10 is beyond me.

 

Andy Dufresne

Footballguy
I was one of the few to see past the Dayne hype last year and picked Tiki without reservation and actual anticipation of his big year. No way did I predict that he'd do what he did, though.

However, about mid-season, his numbers really started to decline due to no other RB2 to take some of the load off.

Having said THAT, the addition of Jacobs for the short yardage stuff, even if it is near the stripe from time to time, only helps IMO Tiki maintain solid numbers throughout the year without tailoff.

Paired with Shaun Alexander, he forms a formiddable core to the FFA squad I'm fielding this year.

In a PPR league, the guy is obviously gold.

 
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bobspruill

Breathe deeply
I have the misfortune of playing in fantasy leagues primarily with fellow New Yorkers, so it's a rare year when I actually get a shot at Tiki in a reasonable place. That said, I have him as RB #7 in 5 per rush/reception, 6 per TD scoring. He gets little love outside of NYC for some reason, but he does not disappoint on your fantasy roster.

 

Evilgrin 72

Distributor of Pain
I have the misfortune of playing in fantasy leagues primarily with fellow New Yorkers, so it's a rare year when I actually get a shot at Tiki in a reasonable place. That said, I have him as RB #7 in 5 per rush/reception, 6 per TD scoring. He gets little love outside of NYC for some reason, but he does not disappoint on your fantasy roster.
The weird thing is, 90% of my leaguemates are from NY/NJ and most still live there. 6 of the 12 owners drafting yesterday were at the main draft site in Gramercy Park, so I was shocked to see him drop to 2.11
 

Andy Dufresne

Footballguy
I have the misfortune of playing in fantasy leagues primarily with fellow New Yorkers, so it's a rare year when I actually get a shot at Tiki in a reasonable place. That said, I have him as RB #7 in 5 per rush/reception, 6 per TD scoring. He gets little love outside of NYC for some reason, but he does not disappoint on your fantasy roster.
The weird thing is, 90% of my leaguemates are from NY/NJ and most still live there. 6 of the 12 owners drafting yesterday were at the main draft site in Gramercy Park, so I was shocked to see him drop to 2.11
I think it's the same thinking as "____ has to have an off year sometime" where the blank is filled in with names like Brett Favre, Isaac Bruce, Jimmy Smith, and a few others. People are afraid of getting burned. Risk is part of the game, though.
 

NYG Endzone

Footballguy
The only thing I know for sure is

Barber TDs < 10
Can you expound on this?
Tiki will not be seeing 374 touches this season.Jacobs and possibly Cloud will get a bigger cut in carries this year. Coughlin wants Tiki fresh and wants to extend his career. He wore down in the second half and produced 40 less ypg with Eli (he did have a tough 2nd half schedule)

Tiki had 20+ runs for over 20 yards last year. Thats amazing. I cant see him coming near that this season.

Giants WR's will get some TD this year!

 

Mystery Achiever

Footballguy
The weird thing is, 90% of my leaguemates are from NY/NJ and most still live there. 6 of the 12 owners drafting yesterday were at the main draft site in Gramercy Park, so I was shocked to see him drop to 2.11
Maybe it is all of the local media hyoe around Jacobs. I live in NY area and took him yesterday at 2.2 -- I seem to end up with him every year...and I'm an Eagles fan! I am a little concerned about the dropoff in fantasy points last year when Manning took over. I've seen it explained here as a tougher schedule. But when you look at the week-by-week points, it is too distinct to blame all on that imo.
 

Evilgrin 72

Distributor of Pain
The weird thing is, 90% of my leaguemates are from NY/NJ and most still live there.  6 of the 12 owners drafting yesterday were at the main draft site in Gramercy Park, so I was shocked to see him drop to 2.11
Maybe it is all of the local media hyoe around Jacobs. I live in NY area and took him yesterday at 2.2 -- I seem to end up with him every year...and I'm an Eagles fan! I am a little concerned about the dropoff in fantasy points last year when Manning took over. I've seen it explained here as a tougher schedule. But when you look at the week-by-week points, it is too distinct to blame all on that imo.
In addition to the schedule, I think a lot of it was due to the fact that opposing defenses likely dared Manning to throw the ball a little more than they did Kurt Warner. No one was afraid of Manning, so they stacked against Tiki. I think this year, Barber will produce better numbers with Manning than he did last year.
 

Mystery Achiever

Footballguy
I think this year, Barber will produce better numbers with Manning than he did last year.
I'm counting on it, though it is hard to imagine D's are all that scared of Eli now, esp. with a sprained throwing elbow...
 
For years I made a living on these undersized backs who, as RB2's would produce as RB1's. Guys like Nap Kaufman, and Charlie Garner and now Tiki.What worries me this year about Barber is not just that Jacobs has looked like a beast and a sure fire touchdown vulture, but rather that Tiki is already talking retirement and has been appearing as a guest commentator on several news shows. If he is starting to let his focus wander I begin to worry.That said he was a good value were you got him.

 

pheagles

Footballguy
Tiki is on the record as being a big supporter of Jacobs, hoping he can alleviate the pounding he takes on short yardage, INCLUDING goaline, carries. That said, Tiki is a yardage machine and as long as Manning's injury does not keep him out of the lineup once the season starts, Tiki will get plenty of fantasy points to reward his owners. Now, IF Manning misses time, the whole team is in trouble cause the "bachelor" and the other Hasselback won't provide any real threat in the passing game.

 
Tiki is on the record as being a big supporter of Jacobs, hoping he can alleviate the pounding he takes on short yardage, INCLUDING goaline, carries.  That said, Tiki is a yardage machine and as long as Manning's injury does not keep him out of the lineup once the season starts, Tiki will get plenty of fantasy points to reward his owners.  Now, IF Manning misses time, the whole team is in trouble cause the "bachelor" and the other Hasselback won't provide any real threat in the passing game.
They could always try to dust off Jeff George or Tim Couch. George seems like a coughlin kind of guy ;)
 
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Traders2001

Footballguy
For years I made a living on these undersized backs who, as RB2's would produce as RB1's. Guys like Nap Kaufman, and Charlie Garner and now Tiki.

What worries me this year about Barber is not just that Jacobs has looked like a beast and a sure fire touchdown vulture, but rather that Tiki is already talking retirement and has been appearing as a guest commentator on several news shows. If he is starting to let his focus wander I begin to worry.

That said he was a good value were you got him.
:thumbup: :thumbup: :thumbup:
 

Evilgrin 72

Distributor of Pain
I think this year, Barber will produce better numbers with Manning than he did last year.
I'm counting on it, though it is hard to imagine D's are all that scared of Eli now, esp. with a sprained throwing elbow...
Not so much scared as I think they'll respect the air attack more with Manning being more in command of the offense and with Burress to stretch the field. I, of all people, know how much easier Burress' presence makes it to run the ball.
 

Mystery Achiever

Footballguy
What worries me this year about Barber is not just that Jacobs has looked like a beast and a sure fire touchdown vulture, but rather that Tiki is already talking retirement and has been appearing as a guest commentator on several news shows. If he is starting to let his focus wander I begin to worry.

That said he was a good value were you got him.
This is nothing new. Has been preparing for his next career for awhile and was even doing a sports segment for the local CBS affiliate two season ago...and we know it didn't hurt his focus last year. ... and re: your later post, Tim Couch was in for a workout last week. :eek:

 

P Boy

Footballguy
Okay, here's my thoughts, for what they are worth.Barber has averaged 300 rushes and 60 catches over the past 3 years. That's a ton of work for a guy his size. Then you add the dynamic that he is now on the wrong side of 30. A combination of a lack of ideal size with the age thing makes him less likely to repeat previous years.Now you add Jacobs into the equation. Dayne had 52 carries last season, the second leading ball carrier on the Giants. Jacobs figures to take up more work than Dayne did. Leave the other RB numbers where they are - which is minscule. Jacobs is - barring injury - an almost sure bet to take goal line & short yardage situations. That's say 4-5 carries a game for Jacobs. Now let's say that because Jacobs has looked so good this preaseason that they let him spell Barber for one series each half. That figures to another 4-5 carries a game. We now have Jacobs at 8-10 carries a game, and in all honesty that seems very reasonable.At even 8 carries a game, that's 128 carries for Jacobs - that's 76 more carries than Dayne had, which will come out of Barber's pocket. Then you add that Jacobs is a very good receiver out of the backfield, and it seems reasonable that he'll catch say 1.5 balls a game - that's 24 catches this year, say 18 come out of Barber's total also. So I can project Barber at about 240 carries (15 per game) and say 48 catches (about 3 per game), and give Jacobs 125 carries and 24 catches.Now we look at Barber's production under Manning. He averaged 4.28 ypc under Manning, and say he gets 8.5 ypr - that's very close to his 3 year average. Those seem like good numbers to work with given his history.4.28 ypc X 240 carries = 1030 rushing yds8.5 ypr X 48 catches = 408 receiving ydsThat still gets you in the neighborhood of 300 touches, which is still a very healthy workload.Then we look at TDs. Barber was a TD monster with 15 last season, but the season before that he had exactly 3 TDs. Let's say the norm is somewhere in the middle - that would be 9, and then let's say with the reduction in short yardage situations that it drops to 7 (I have a feeling it may be lower, but I'll go with this).So now we have Barber at:240 carries for 1030 rush yds48 catches for 410 rec yds7 TDsThat puts Barber at RB19 based upon the FBG projections in a league without 1 ppr, and at RB17 in a league with 1 ppr.and consequently we get Jacobs at550 rush yds180 rec yds7 TDsJust my thoughts...

 
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fridayfrenzy

Footballguy
Okay, here's my thoughts, for what they are worth.

Barber has averaged 300 rushes and 60 catches over the past 3 years. That's a ton of work for a guy his size. Then you add the dynamic that he is now on the wrong side of 30. A combination of a lack of ideal size with the age thing makes him less likely to repeat previous years.

Now you add Jacobs into the equation. Dayne had 52 carries last season, the second leading ball carrier on the Giants. Jacobs figures to take up more work than Dayne did. Leave the other RB numbers where they are - which is minscule.

Jacobs is - barring injury - an almost sure bet to take goal line & short yardage situations. That's say 4-5 carries a game for Jacobs. Now let's say that because Jacobs has looked so good this preaseason that they let him spell Barber for one series each half. That figures to another 4-5 carries a game. We now have Jacobs at 8-10 carries a game, and in all honesty that seems very reasonable.

At even 8 carries a game, that's 128 carries for Jacobs - that's 76 more carries than Dayne had, which will come out of Barber's pocket. Then you add that Jacobs is a very good receiver out of the backfield, and it seems reasonable that he'll catch say 1.5 balls a game - that's 24 catches this year, say 18 come out of Barber's total also. So I can project Barber at about 240 carries (15 per game) and say 48 catches (about 3 per game), and give Jacobs 125 carries and 24 catches.

Now we look at Barber's production under Manning. He averaged 4.28 ypc under Manning, and say he gets 8.5 ypr - that's very close to his 3 year average. Those seem like good numbers to work with given his history.

4.28 ypc X 240 carries = 1030 rushing yds

8.5 ypr X 48 catches = 408 receiving yds

Then we look at TDs. Barber was a TD monster with 15 last season, but the season before that he had exactly 3 TDs. Let's say the norm is somewhere in the middle - that would be 9, and then let's say with the reduction in short yardage situations that it drops to 7 (I have a feeling it may be lower, but I'll go with this).

So now we have Barber at:

240 carries for 1030 rush yds

48 catches for 410 rec yds

7 TDs

That puts Barber at RB19 based upon the FBG projections in a league without 1 ppr, and at RB17 in a league with 1 ppr.

and consequently we get Jacobs at

550 rush yds

180 rec yds

7 TDs

Just my thoughts...
128 carries for Jacobs.I THINK NOT!!!

 

NYG Endzone

Footballguy
Some *other NY runner posted

2000 NYG 16 228 770 3.4

FYI

128 from Jacobs is conservative considering what I heard from him myself

 
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wraith5

Footballguy
Okay, here's my thoughts, for what they are worth.

Barber has averaged 300 rushes and 60 catches over the past 3 years. That's a ton of work for a guy his size. Then you add the dynamic that he is now on the wrong side of 30. A combination of a lack of ideal size with the age thing makes him less likely to repeat previous years.

Now you add Jacobs into the equation. Dayne had 52 carries last season, the second leading ball carrier on the Giants. Jacobs figures to take up more work than Dayne did. Leave the other RB numbers where they are - which is minscule.

Jacobs is - barring injury - an almost sure bet to take goal line & short yardage situations. That's say 4-5 carries a game for Jacobs. Now let's say that because Jacobs has looked so good this preaseason that they let him spell Barber for one series each half. That figures to another 4-5 carries a game. We now have Jacobs at 8-10 carries a game, and in all honesty that seems very reasonable.

At even 8 carries a game, that's 128 carries for Jacobs - that's 76 more carries than Dayne had, which will come out of Barber's pocket. Then you add that Jacobs is a very good receiver out of the backfield, and it seems reasonable that he'll catch say 1.5 balls a game - that's 24 catches this year, say 18 come out of Barber's total also. So I can project Barber at about 240 carries (15 per game) and say 48 catches (about 3 per game), and give Jacobs 125 carries and 24 catches.

Now we look at Barber's production under Manning. He averaged 4.28 ypc under Manning, and say he gets 8.5 ypr - that's very close to his 3 year average. Those seem like good numbers to work with given his history.

4.28 ypc X 240 carries = 1030 rushing yds

8.5 ypr X 48 catches = 408 receiving yds

That still gets you in the neighborhood of 300 touches, which is still a very healthy workload.

Then we look at TDs. Barber was a TD monster with 15 last season, but the season before that he had exactly 3 TDs. Let's say the norm is somewhere in the middle - that would be 9, and then let's say with the reduction in short yardage situations that it drops to 7 (I have a feeling it may be lower, but I'll go with this).

So now we have Barber at:

240 carries for 1030 rush yds

48 catches for 410 rec yds

7 TDs

That puts Barber at RB19 based upon the FBG projections in a league without 1 ppr, and at RB17 in a league with 1 ppr.

and consequently we get Jacobs at

550 rush yds

180 rec yds

7 TDs

Just my thoughts...
:goodposting: Not sure if I agree that Jacobs will get that many touches, but I like how you got there and supported your position.

Stay gold.

 

P Boy

Footballguy
128 carries for Jacobs. I THINK NOT!!!
Just for the record, the Giants have averaged about 50 short yardage carries over Tiki's big 3 years. If Jacobs takes 80% of those, that gives him 40 carries before he even thinks about some regular game work. Then you ad 5-6 carries a game while spelling Barber, again, one series in each half - say 6 non-special team plays per series (they get a couple of first downs on one series and they go 3 & out on the other) and the Giants run on 45% of them, and that gets you to 128 carries.That's not a ton of work over a 16 game season, by any means.
 
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Capella

CAPELLODINHO
The following was my response to Harrier's ranking of Tiki in his last set of rankings:

I think you are underrating Barber here...you have him at RB18...Since he became the starter in 2000, he has not ended up any lower than RB15 in a season, and that includes two seasons (2000 and 2001) where he split the carries 50/50 with Ron Dayne...

Barber's YPC since he became a starter has been around 4.7 YPC...Even if we are conservative, I don't see a YPC below 4.5 for Tiki...The Giants ran the ball 424 times last year, good for 21st in the league...given the fact that Manning is still a very young QB who has not shown a lot as a starter, I don't think it is unreasonable to think they will have at least 400 carries this season...

Barber had 76% of the team's carres last season, and flourished doing so...Even with Jacobs in the fold, I don't see how that # drops below 70% at the worst...

So if we go for 70% of 400 carries at 4.5 YPC, we end up with 1260 yards rushing (126 points)...

Tiki has always been a great receiving RB, averaging 586 yards receiving as a starter, with an 8.8 yards per reception average...Last year he had his fewest # of catches since he became a starter, and still reeled in 52, although his receptions did drop off with Manning under center...

I think 45 catches is, again, a conservative estimation, and even if we drop his YPC down to 8 (below his carrer average), that gives him right around 360 yards receiving (36 points)...

That brings us to TDs, which really is the crux of the issue...Jacobs has looked very impressive in camp, and he is sure big enough to be a GL back (6'4", 256)...Barber did score 12 of his 15 TDs last year from within the 10, which would seem to indicate that he'd be ripe for vulturing...I would agree, to a degree...

Early in his career as a starter, when he was the Lightning in the Thuder-Lightning backfield, he was not yet an established runner in the league, and many thought he was merely a change of pace/3rd down back...Even despite this, however, Barber led the team in TD rushes 2 of the 3 years Dayne received carries as well...

Which brings us to the disasterous 2003 campaign, where Barber only scored 3 TDs (which, BTW, was the reason he was so undervalued last year at this time...The thing is, the Giants only rushed for 6 TDs as a team...the 2003 Giants were an awful team (4-12) with an AWFUL offensive line...

Now the offensive line improved leaps and bounds last season, and Barber rolled, with 13 rushing TDs...Now I do not expect him to match that number, but I also think you are overestimating how much Jabos will "vulture" Barber...

Jacobs is a rookie who played against 1-AA competition...To assume that he will just step in and take a high percentage of carries (GL or otherwise) away from Barber, who has become one of the best all around backs in the league and a very proficient red zone back, seems unlikely to me...

I think Jacobs will "vulture" some TDs from Barber, but even if he scores 4 or 5, I think that barber should not have a problem scoring 8 total TDs, his average TD prodcution as a starter (48 points)...

So given what I feel is a VERY conservative projection, Barber ends up with:

1260 rushing (126 pts)

350 receiving (36 pts)

8 Total TDs (48 pts)

for a total of 210 points, which would have ranked him as RB9 last season...
All you need to know right here boys.
 
128 carries for Jacobs.

I THINK NOT!!!
Just for the record, the Giants have averaged about 50 short yardage carries over Tiki's big 3 years. If Jacobs takes 80% of those, that gives him 40 carries before he even thinks about some regular game work. Then you ad 5-6 carries a game while spelling Barber, again, one series in each half - say 6 non-special team plays per series (they get a couple of first downs on one series and they go 3 & out on the other) and the Giants run on 45% of them, and that gets you to 128 carries.That's not a ton of work over a 16 game season, by any means.
I see Jacobs getting a workload about similar to Davenport and Fisher in Green Bay. That's about 130 carries and 20 receptions in relief of the main guy. (Some years that would vary up to about 150 carries and 30 catches for the Davenport/Fisher combo)
 
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P Boy

Footballguy
I see Jacobs getting a workload about similar to Davenport and Fischer in Green Bay.
If that would in fact be the case, you'd have an average of 121 carries & 31 receptions for those guys over the past 3 years.That's pretty darn close to 128/24.
 

Evilgrin 72

Distributor of Pain
I think Jacobs is going to have to show an awful lot to get 80% of the goal line carries. Barber's success rate at the goal line last year was phenomenal, so Jacobs is going to have to really shine (and not just in the preseason) to take over that role more or less full time, as you suggest.Barber's 3 TDs the year before that was largely a result of the Giants only scoring 6 rushing TDs the entire season. This is very unlikely to happen under Coughlin, who is a "pound it in on the ground" type of coach inside the 10.I just don't see Barber finishing as RB19 when he hasn't finished below RB15 in the last 4 years (despite splitting carries about 50/50 with Dayne one year.) I know Jacobs has looked strong thus far in pre-season, but he'd have to have been SORELY undervalued to take that much of the workload from a star like Barber.

 

ELI2TYREE

Footballguy
I think Jacobs is going to have to show an awful lot to get 80% of the goal line carries.  Barber's success rate at the goal line last year was phenomenal, so Jacobs is going to have to really shine (and not just in the preseason) to take over that role more or less full time, as you suggest.

Barber's 3 TDs the year before that was largely a result of the Giants only scoring 6 rushing TDs the entire season.  This is very unlikely to happen under Coughlin, who is a "pound it in on the ground" type of coach inside the 10.

I just don't see Barber finishing as RB19 when he hasn't finished below RB15 in the last 4 years (despite splitting carries about 50/50 with Dayne one year.)  I know Jacobs has looked strong thus far in pre-season, but he'd have to have been SORELY undervalued to take that much of the workload from a star like Barber.
It doesn't matter what Barber's success rate was near the goalline last year. The fact is that they want Jacobs to take over that duty. Coughlin always uses a short yardage back, its his Mode of Operation, plus they want to save Barber from the pounding so as to keep him fresh throughout the game and the season.
 
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Evilgrin 72

Distributor of Pain
I think Jacobs is going to have to show an awful lot to get 80% of the goal line carries.  Barber's success rate at the goal line last year was phenomenal, so Jacobs is going to have to really shine (and not just in the preseason) to take over that role more or less full time, as you suggest.

Barber's 3 TDs the year before that was largely a result of the Giants only scoring 6 rushing TDs the entire season.  This is very unlikely to happen under Coughlin, who is a "pound it in on the ground" type of coach inside the 10.

I just don't see Barber finishing as RB19 when he hasn't finished below RB15 in the last 4 years (despite splitting carries about 50/50 with Dayne one year.)  I know Jacobs has looked strong thus far in pre-season, but he'd have to have been SORELY undervalued to take that much of the workload from a star like Barber.
It doesn't matter what Barber's success rate was near the goalline last year. The fact is that they want Jacobs to take over that duty. Coughlin always uses a short yardage back, its his Mode of Operation, plus they want to save Barber from the pounding so as to keep him fresh throughout the game and the season.
If this is the case, why did Barber get all the goalline carries last year? Before the season there was a lot of talk about Ron Dayne being the short yardage guy, and he was tearing it up in preseason, yet once the season started, Barber was the guy. I'll buy into the Jacobs hype when I see him repeatedly scoring against stacked fronts in the regular season. Even if he starts with that role, if he can't get it done, you'll see Barber back in there at the goal line in a hurry. He's already proven he can get it done.I seem to recall Fred Taylor putting up a couple of 10+ TD seasons while Coughlin was the coach in Jacksonville......

 

NYG Endzone

Footballguy
Because Ron Dayne is horrible. The guy consistanty got 0 yards, 1 yard, 0 yards, then would have a 10 yarder. Jacobs WILL BE THE GOALINE BACK

 

Evilgrin 72

Distributor of Pain
Another thing we seem to be overlooking is that even in the years in which Barber scored 4 and 3 TDs (2001 and 2003, respectively) - he STILL finished as a top-15 back based on his rushing/receiving yards. Thus, getting him as RB19 would seem to represent value even if he scores only 3 times.....The only way I can see him being a disappointment as an RB2 is if Pony Boy's scenario plays out exactly as he described - I know that Jacobs has looked good in the pre-season, but does anyone else really see him putting up 700-800 combined yards and 7 TDs?

 

Evilgrin 72

Distributor of Pain
Because Ron Dayne is horrible. The guy consistanty got 0 yards, 1 yard, 0 yards, then would have a 10 yarder.

Jacobs WILL BE THE GOALINE BACK
Yes, but in last year's preseason he looked great. That's all I'm saying - don't get carried away by the hype on Jacobs - the guy hasn't proven a thing yet.
 

NYG Endzone

Footballguy
Another thing we seem to be overlooking is that even in the years in which Barber scored 4 and 3 TDs (2001 and 2003, respectively) - he STILL finished as a top-15 back based on his rushing/receiving yards. Thus, getting him as RB19 would seem to represent value even if he scores only 3 times.....



The only way I can see him being a disappointment as an RB2 is if Pony Boy's scenario plays out exactly as he described - I know that Jacobs has looked good in the pre-season, but does anyone else really see him putting up 700-800 combined yards and 7 TDs?
Mark it down :yes: . PB is on the money
 

NYG Endzone

Footballguy
Because Ron Dayne is horrible. The guy consistanty got 0 yards, 1 yard, 0 yards, then would have a 10 yarder.

Jacobs WILL BE THE GOALINE BACK
Yes, but in last year's preseason he looked great. That's all I'm saying - don't get carried away by the hype on Jacobs - the guy hasn't proven a thing yet.
There is no hype. He is a completly different style runner than Dayne. He hits the holes (which dayne never did) and has a rare combo of speed and power. Case closed. I'm done
 

fridayfrenzy

Footballguy
128 carries for Jacobs.

I THINK NOT!!!
I'd like to hear you support your response.
130 carries for a backup is more of a RBBC number than it is a backup number of carries.How many backup RBs last year (who did not start for an injured back) got that many carries last year?

ZERO.

Unless you see Jacobs being part of a RBBC, I see no possible way that the backup is going to get 130 carries.

I disagree with thinking this 4th rounder from a small school is gonna come in in his first year and make it a RBBC backfield in NY. What leads you to believe that its gonna be a RBBC? Just your opinion? Just thinking that a small back and a big back make a RBBC pair? Besides the short yardage (non GL), Barber was great last year. Based on the knowledge we have, there is nothing to show that its gonna be RBBC.

 
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Evilgrin 72

Distributor of Pain
Because Ron Dayne is horrible. The guy consistanty got 0 yards, 1 yard, 0 yards, then would have a 10 yarder.

Jacobs WILL BE THE GOALINE BACK
Yes, but in last year's preseason he looked great. That's all I'm saying - don't get carried away by the hype on Jacobs - the guy hasn't proven a thing yet.
There is no hype. He is a completly different style runner than Dayne. He hits the holes (which dayne never did) and has a rare combo of speed and power. Case closed. I'm done
TJ Duckett (the player Jacobs reminds me of most) has a rare blend of speed and power too, but Warrick Dunn remains the starter and scored 9 TDs last year. I have no reason to believe Barber cannot do the same.I know he's a different runner than Dayne. All I am saying (again) is that last year, Dayne was anointed the goal-line back in the preseason (where he was playing very well, much like Jacobs is now) but in the regular season, he couldn't cut it. You cannot possibly KNOW that Jacobs is going to excel in this role when the chips are down because he has never been there. He's a rookie. But that's cool - folks like you who make these assumptions are the reason that top-15 backs like Tiki drop to me at pick 23.

I find it surprising that a Giants fan like yourself who has watched Tiki carry your team for years would be so quick to anoint an unproven rookie as a guarantee to take away 35-40% of his production.

 

ELI2TYREE

Footballguy
Another thing we seem to be overlooking is that even in the years in which Barber scored 4 and 3 TDs (2001 and 2003, respectively) - he STILL finished as a top-15 back based on his rushing/receiving yards. Thus, getting him as RB19 would seem to represent value even if he scores only 3 times.....

The only way I can see him being a disappointment as an RB2 is if Pony Boy's scenario plays out exactly as he described - I know that Jacobs has looked good in the pre-season, but does anyone else really see him putting up 700-800 combined yards and 7 TDs?
I would LOVE to get Tiki in the 2nd round, but it won't happen as he'll be gone by the time it gets back to me (I pick 2nd and 6th in 10 team leagues and 4th in a 14 teamer), and that's considering that i think PONY BOY's assessment is right on. If you don't think he's right, then take him in the first round. I wouldn't fault that move.I think he's an excellent value even with Jacobs vulturing. He'll still get receptions and he racks up yards on those plays big time. I 'm agreeing with you while I disagree with you, if you see what I mean.

 

Evilgrin 72

Distributor of Pain
Another thing we seem to be overlooking is that even in the years in which Barber scored 4 and 3 TDs (2001 and 2003, respectively) - he STILL finished as a top-15 back based on his rushing/receiving yards.  Thus, getting him as RB19 would seem to represent value even if he scores only 3 times.....

The only way I can see him being a disappointment as an RB2 is if Pony Boy's scenario plays out exactly as he described - I know that Jacobs has looked good in the pre-season, but does anyone else really see him putting up 700-800 combined yards and 7 TDs?
I would LOVE to get Tiki in the 2nd round, but it won't happen as he'll be gone by the time it gets back to me (I pick 2nd and 6th in 10 team leagues and 4th in a 14 teamer), and that's considering that i think PONY BOY's assessment is right on. If you don't think he's right, then take him in the first round. I wouldn't fault that move.I think he's an excellent value even with Jacobs vulturing. He'll still get receptions and he racks up yards on those plays big time. I 'm agreeing with you while I disagree with you, if you see what I mean.
:thumbup: That's what I'm saying - I can't see Barber being a washout at RB2 regardless of whether or not Jacobs takes the primary goal-line role.

 

ELI2TYREE

Footballguy
Another thing we seem to be overlooking is that even in the years in which Barber scored 4 and 3 TDs (2001 and 2003, respectively) - he STILL finished as a top-15 back based on his rushing/receiving yards.  Thus, getting him as RB19 would seem to represent value even if he scores only 3 times.....

The only way I can see him being a disappointment as an RB2 is if Pony Boy's scenario plays out exactly as he described - I know that Jacobs has looked good in the pre-season, but does anyone else really see him putting up 700-800 combined yards and 7 TDs?
I would LOVE to get Tiki in the 2nd round, but it won't happen as he'll be gone by the time it gets back to me (I pick 2nd and 6th in 10 team leagues and 4th in a 14 teamer), and that's considering that i think PONY BOY's assessment is right on. If you don't think he's right, then take him in the first round. I wouldn't fault that move.I think he's an excellent value even with Jacobs vulturing. He'll still get receptions and he racks up yards on those plays big time. I 'm agreeing with you while I disagree with you, if you see what I mean.
forgot to add that because of Jacob's impact, I feel Tiki will be better rested, more explosive and possibly hit near last season's numbers anyway. Of course its all speculation, but if the O-line lives up to they hype, his season could be unreal, despite Jacobs vulturing.
 

NYG Endzone

Footballguy
TJ Duckett (the player Jacobs reminds me of most) has a rare blend of speed and power too, but Warrick Dunn remains the starter and scored 9 TDs last year. I have no reason to believe Barber cannot do the same.
Fine TJ Duckett he is. My original post said less than 10 tds for Tiki and you seem to agree.
I know he's a different runner than Dayne. All I am saying (again) is that last year, Dayne was anointed the goal-line back in the preseason (where he was playing very well, much like Jacobs is now) but in the regular season, he couldn't cut it. You cannot possibly KNOW that Jacobs is going to excel in this role when the chips are down because he has never been there. He's a rookie. But that's cool - folks like you who make these assumptions are the reason that top-15 backs like Tiki drop to me at pick 23.
Tiki is still a is still a top 15 back guaranteed. All i am saying is that he will not be seeing 374 touches this year. He cant, hes getting up there in age and the giants want to preserve his health and career.
I find it surprising that a Giants fan like yourself who has watched Tiki carry your team for years would be so quick to anoint an unproven rookie as a guarantee to take away 35-40% of his production.
Tiki's my favorite player in the NFL. I have his signed mini helmet right there on my damn shelf. I welcome the goalline back because I want to see Tiki for a few more years. Tiki gets it done and is a warrior. There is no BJ hype the way you are making it sound. He will get 100 carries this year and thats the bottom line. Keep the shots coming
 

Evilgrin 72

Distributor of Pain
TJ Duckett (the player Jacobs reminds me of most) has a rare blend of speed and power too, but Warrick Dunn remains the starter and scored 9 TDs last year.  I have no reason to believe Barber cannot do the same.
Fine TJ Duckett he is. My original post said less than 10 tds for Tiki and you seem to agree.
I know he's a different runner than Dayne.  All I am saying (again) is that last year, Dayne was anointed the goal-line back in the preseason (where he was playing very well, much like Jacobs is now) but in the regular season, he couldn't cut it.  You cannot possibly KNOW that Jacobs is going to excel in this role when the chips are down because he has never been there.  He's a rookie.  But that's cool - folks like you who make these assumptions are the reason that top-15 backs like Tiki drop to me at pick 23.
Tiki is still a is still a top 15 back guaranteed. All i am saying is that he will not be seeing 374 touches this year. He cant, hes getting up there in age and the giants want to preserve his health and career.
I find it surprising that a Giants fan like yourself who has watched Tiki carry your team for years would be so quick to anoint an unproven rookie as a guarantee to take away 35-40% of his production.
Tiki's my favorite player in the NFL. I have his signed mini helmet right there on my damn shelf. I welcome the goalline back because I want to see Tiki for a few more years. Tiki gets it done and is a warrior. There is no BJ hype the way you are making it sound. He will get 100 carries this year and thats the bottom line. Keep the shots coming
I'm not taking shots at you at all. I just found your take surprising, but it's this thinking that guarantees Tiki will continue to be undervalued, which is fine with me.I am only projecting about 9 TDs for Tiki, which would still make him a great RB2 - I just don't see Jacobs racking up 700-800 yards and 7 TDs yet. He may well be a beast down the road, but I don't think he will see those numbers this year.

I actually agree with most of what you are saying, but there is DEFINITELY a lot of Jacobs hype - just looking on this board, there are at least 5-10 thread talking about this very issue and discussing how great Jacobs has looked. It may be true, all I am saying is that we saw the same talk last year surrounding Dayne, so I'd rather see it on the field before I put it in the bank, that's all.

 

Homer

Footballguy
Listen, no doubt Tiki had a great year last year under any roster/scoring system, but it's funny seeing all the hype about him coming from people that play in 12 team (or more) leagues that give a generous 1pt/10 yards, either rush or rec. It's been said here a million times, but LOOK AT YOUR SCORING SYSTEM! If you're in a 10 team league and you need 20 yards/pt., Tiki is at BEST a RB3, and really not even worth considering if he's in the <6 TD range that he probably has a 50-50 shot at being this year. Tiki's value is in larger yardage heavy leagues. I think of him as a rich man's (healthier?) Warrick Dunn. If that has 2nd round value in YOUR league, well, GOOD for YOU!

 
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gump

Footballguy
When Auburn signed Brandon Jacobs, the feeling of the cow-town faithful was that he was the re-incarnation of Bo Jackson.Next thing you know, he was leaving school.Alot of hype around this kid for a long time.

 

Evilgrin 72

Distributor of Pain
Listen, no doubt Tiki had a great year last year under any roster/scoring system, but it's funny seeing all the hype about him coming from people that play in 12 team (or more) leagues that give a generous 1pt/10 yards, either rush or rec. It's been said here a million times, but LOOK AT YOUR SCORING SYSTEM! If you're in a 10 team league and you need 20 yards/pt., Tiki is at BEST a RB3, and really not even worth considering if he's in the <6 TD range that he probably has a 50-50 shot at being this year. Tiki's value is in larger yardage heavy leagues. I think of him as a rich man's (healthier?) Warrick Dunn. If that has 2nd round value in YOUR league, well, GOOD for YOU!
In a standard 12-team league, in order for Tiki to be an RB3 value would mean that Barber finishes RB25 at best. This means you expect Barlow 2004 type of production out of him as a high-end projection.I'll let that statement speak for itself.

 

TD Ryan

Footballguy
Tiki Barber:

2000 1725 total yards, 9TDs, 70recpts

2001 1442 total yards, 4TDs, 72 recpts (only played 9 games)

2002 1984 total yards, 11TDs, 69 recpts

2003 1677 total yards, 3TDs, 69 recpts

2004 2096 total yards, 15TDs, 52 recpts

5 year average: 1785 total yards, 8.4TDs, 66.4 recpts

#1. anyone predicting less than 1500 total yards for Tiki Barber is grossly off base.

#2. Tiki Barber is the #1 threat on the NYG. He is their playmaker.

#3. Tiki Barber hasn't had any major injuries like many of the other "stud" RBs.

#4. The NYG have been a dismall offensive team for quite some time now

ranking 23rd in 2004 and 20th in 2003 yet Barber produces.

We fantasy lunatics preach about taking players from high powered offenses, yet somehow Tiki has defied that proven logic and succeeded none the less.

With a core of Eli, Shockey, Toomer, and now Plaxico... maybe this offense will at lease be average?

#5. Consistency.

Racking up yardage the way Tiki does generally avoids those less-than 10 fantasy point weeks. Even on a down week, Tiki racks up 60 rush and 40 receive.

Ron Dayne, Dorsey Levens, and now Brandon Jacobs. :rolleyes:

none of this changes the fact that Tiki is the primary offensive threat on NYG.

If you play in a TD Heave League... absolutely, avoid Tiki... he's a TD roller coaster.

If you play in a PPR league... get him early, as in top 5.

If you play in a traditional yardage/TD league... Tiki is a low-to-no risk back with potential to be top 5. Take him anywhere late first and beyone because even his "bust" stats aren't that bad

 
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migarvin

Footballguy
1260 rushing (126 pts)

350 receiving (36 pts)

8 Total TDs (48 pts)

thos look like lamont joradn numbers if he starts every game

if that is running back nine then why westbrook be selected after tiki

westbrook had 1515 yards and 9 total tds while only starting 12 games

tiki barber owners beware!

i like tiki and root for the giants. He's had a great career but he is so unpredictable. Every other year his td's go way down. He is not explosive around the goaline. sure, he can score on 3rd and 1 but so can fred taylor. But did that stop coughlin from using james stewart or stacey mack???? think about it

3 reasons why barber will not live up to a top 10 back status

coughlin loves vultures (see stacey mack, those who say dayne sucked so much are absolutely right)

jeremy shockey and plaxico buress will get plenty of red zone looks

brandon jacobs is the real deal and is the official vulture

 

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