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Let's talk Wide Receivers for the 2018 NFL Draft (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JohnnyU
- Start date
matuski
Footballguy
And even given that, Julio had better. I actually do not recall AJ at Georgia so I can't comment there aside from assuming it couldn't have been worse than Alabama the last 3 years.
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ZWK
Footballguy
It's similar on other stats, including team-adjusted ones.
Market share of receiving yards, pro-rated for missed games, averaged across their seasons:
35.2% AJ Green
34.7% Amari Cooper
32.1% Julio Jones
30.3% Calvin Ridley
Market share of receiving yards, pro-rated for missed games, in their peak season on this stat:
44.4% Amari Cooper 2014
40.2% AJ Green 2009
38.6% Julio Jones 2008
35.7% Calvin Ridley 2017
matuski
Footballguy
Again.. this still ignores a litany of situational variables.
Kirk a great example of what happens to the same player, same school, same coaches.. different QBs. Look at his last 2 years. Night and day.
Eyeballs have to come into play here.
And even given all that, I doubt anyone will be disappointed if Ridley comes out a few % points below that list of WRs in the NFL.
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Zyphros
Footballguy
My concern with Ridley is just that he's old, so of course he's going to be (or should be) more along than other WR's when it comes to being a tactician of the game. That makes complete sense that he's more advanced, well because he's done it longer. The issue I have is if he actually was this 1st round regarded receiver, then why didn't he do it sooner? It took him this long to actually be relevant? I don't think that's a good sign moving forward when he's up against NFL caliber players, who the best of them learn rather quickly, and Ridley didn't seem to do that.
I know literally nothingn about his work ethic or character so maybe that plays into a bit if he's not a workout warrior, or a come in at 5am type of guy, or that he just gets his practice in, and goes about the rest of his day. I have 0 clue on that, but I do have that question about him right now if he might be some fools gold that people are propping up because they need a WR to prop up.
I know literally nothingn about his work ethic or character so maybe that plays into a bit if he's not a workout warrior, or a come in at 5am type of guy, or that he just gets his practice in, and goes about the rest of his day. I have 0 clue on that, but I do have that question about him right now if he might be some fools gold that people are propping up because they need a WR to prop up.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
This makes no sense. His best season was his freshman year. It didn't take him any kind of long to figure it out. It just took him longer to get enrolled in college. He literally couldn't have done it any sooner than as a freshman.
His production dropped after his freshman year when Alabama switched to a running QB.
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Zyphros
Footballguy
I meant in regards to him being a 1st round WR in both the NFL draft and fantasy circles. I mentioned that but maybe it wasn't clear. Even after his freshman season, I don't remember him being hyped up as a guy to watch for his sophomore/junior/senior seasons if he chose to stay that long. Which he didn't he declared early but all his seasons are pretty much the same in terms of stats. Good not great, for 3 years straight.
kcfflguy
Footballguy
He's always been in the conversation that I can remember. I think that the other players have fallen more than him is why he's the sole survivor top guy.
He has been on most people's radar as a potential top WR for this draft class since his freshman season.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
I seemed to see a lot less red flags at the combine for this poorly thought of WR class than I did of the seemingly stacked RBs class.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
He definitely was. He didn't catch the clickbait circuit because he didn't put up absurd numbers, but the devysphere has been on him since day 1. The only concern I have is why a 22/23 year old wasn't making people look silly on a regular basis. I can't imagine how open JuJu would get in college 2 years from now. Ridley is the kind of puzzle I really struggle with because it's hard to separate the system from the performance. Ohio State is the same way.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
It does ignore some and it's really impossible for any number to perfectly reflect all the factors of football. However, those market share numbers do account for players that are on bad offenses with bad QBs.matuski said:
Also, what is the night and day about Kirk and A+M passing offense in terms of numbers?
16: A+M passing stats 3300 yards, 25 TDs, 7.07 y/a, 54.4% and Kirk 83/928/9
17: A+M passing stats 3266 yards, 22 TDs, 7.27 y/a, 56% and Kirk 66/859/10
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Also since there was talk of market share, DJ Moore had a better true freshman season than his 25/357/3 might indicate.The 2015 Maryland passing numbers are almost too bad to believe: 183/2092/15. So Moore accounted for 14% of the receptions, 17% of the pasing yards and 20% of the passing TDs.
matuski
Footballguy
Again with stats.
Eyeballs.
I don't know the stats, but the situation with the 2 freshman QBs this year was frustrating. The Mond kid in particular blew goats, they stuck with him far too long.
Starkel came in around halftime against Auburn, look what happened then. Kirk was suddenly the 1st round WR we had seen the prior 2 years. I assume his stats from there on were better as well if that is what you need to see.
Knight - Mond - Starkel
Day - Night - Day
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
I think it all pieces are important. However, I don't think all22 film is available for college. Also, I don't have the time/skill to watch all of the game film on these players. I don't look at raw stats because it's obvious why a WR for Michigan would never have the chance to have the same WR stats as a player from Baylor. That's why market share is helpful. It allows for a little more of an even playing field.
You are right that from Auburn on Kirk basically doubled his production.
Kirk weeks games 1-9 50.5 yards 0.55 TDs
Auburn Passing games 1-9 196.5 1.1 TDs
Kirk represented 25.6% of yards and 50% of TDs
Kirk weeks 9-13 105.2 1 TDs
Auburn passing game 9-13 339.4 yards 2.8 TDs
Kirk represented 30.9% of yards and 35.7% of TDs
Kirk's production absolutely increased when they changed QBs. So did the entire offense. WR2 Damion Ratley went from averaging 48.6 and 0.22 TDs to averaging 77.4 and 1.2 TDs. I like Kirk and it does seem like his performance was night and day based on the play of the 2 QBs. The metrics very favorable for Kirk.
bostonfred
Footballguy
This is a really good post for those of us who don't watch the games. Thank you.matuski said:
matuski
Footballguy
I'm an Aggie, so I watch more than many. This is why I am higher on Kirk than some (was higher - it appears people are coming around).. his production this year was misleading. He never stopped being perhaps the most dangerous player in the NCAA with the ball in his hands.
And back to the original point - the numbers can mislead you. I like my eyeballs better. Especially for college players where the situations vary so widely.
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I don't think it's crazy but since the combine I've seen one mock that had him going to Ravens in round one and Jeremiah just updated his top 50 list and still had Ridley as his top WR but dropped him a little to 22. That's not a lot to go on but I tend to think he is still looked at like a first round guy but at this point I don't think it would be shocking if he fell out a little.
Dawg Pound 69
Footballguy
Would be shocked if he doesn't go in 1st round. NFL teams don't put nearly as much emphasis on combine results as us fantasy football owners do.travdogg said:
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I think Sutton goes in the top half of rd 1. I think Chark could enter the conversation at the end of rd 1. I think Ridley and Kirk could end up in the back end of rd one or could go early rd 2.
Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
yeah I think the fantasy community was much more concerned than the nfl about his combine. for instance, Michel Irvin and steve smith couldn't stop gushing about ridley's performance in the drills
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Ridley is an excellent blocker among other things that teams will like about him that maybe does not show up in the box score.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Zyphros
Footballguy
I was talking to one of my friends who is a die hard ravens fan, and he said the Baltimore community would go nuts if they went WR in the 1st. I don't think any WR is worthy of 1st round consideration this year when you think about the warts that they all have. Especially when you consider how deep the position is, they're almost all the same prospect which is 20 players deep so you can get the same guy in the 3rd round.menobrown said:
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Maybe it’s my contrarian nature, but the more I look at this draft class, the more I’m liking the WRs and the less I’m liking the RBs. I am seeing at least 3 WR1s now that some of the denegrating points have been responded to in the combine. Some of the warts were beauty marks, it seems.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I think it kind of depends how nfl GMs use the analytics from the combine. Historically sparq-x (where Ridley performed poorly) is not a very predictive measure of nfl WRs. Meanwhile 40 time, where Ridley performed well, is quite predictive.travdogg said:
So while it may have been a "bad" combine overall it was generally bad in the places that haven't mattered analytically and not so bad in the places that have mattered.
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Zyphros
Footballguy
I can see that happening too, that a couple of these guys explode into a WR1 of the future. I don't think any of them are ready to take on that role though. If you think about these WR's with a standard 2-3 years before they become something, then I think people will be pleasantly surprised with the outcome of their careers.
I kinda feel that way too. That said, I personally don't have Ridley as a top-5 WR in this class. Really love Gallup. I think he's one of the top-12 players in this draft.
I think Guard is the most loaded position in this draft. I could see 4 pro bowl level guys in this class, including arguably the best player in the entire draft.
2006 was like that, where there wasn't really a standout going in, Santonio Holmes was the closest to a consensus #1, but we got Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings, and Marques Colston out of the class.
I actually agree, I like some of the WRs better and a few of the RB's less. I still have the best of the RB's much higher rated, but some of the WRs have vaulted into even with my second/third tier RBs. I think those mid-1st rookie picks likely increased in value a little bit and now there will be more flexibility in which way to go on those picks.
I do think situation is going to play a huge role this year in how some of these guys get valued in the end though. If a 2nd or 3rd round RB/WR goes to SF for example, he might go higher in fantasy drafts than a couple of RB/WRs drafted in the 1st or 2nd.
Also despite his size and underwhelming combine IMO he is the safest WR in the draft and I think that is very appealing to any team who feels the same way because unlike us their jobs are on the line and they tend to gravitate towards safety.
Every player needs necessary physical traits to back this up but I believe the single most important factor for a RB's success is vision and for a WR it's route running and these are not things the combine measures. The reason I maintain Ridley is the safest pick in the draft is that he's regarded by many as the best route runner. I believe the number one reason WR's bust is poor route running. On the other hand the top route runners the last few drafts have not only been among the best receivers but also make immediate contributions to fantasy teams. Of course rating route running is subjective, but looking back at last few drafts I recall these WR's being regarded as the top route runners in their class:
2017 I think Kupp was regarded as top route runner and is #1 rookie fantasy WR. Immediate contributor.
2016- I don't think this was close to a consensus but Shepard I thought was regarded as top route runner. Thomas and Reek in that draft class have been better but Shepard has been solid and in fact I charted the 22 WR's who have been taking in first two rounds in last 3 drafts and from those 22 he is 4th in PPG but he is at 12.18 PPG(PPR) and the guy in second is at 13.69 so not a big gap between 2-4 but a big one between 4-5. He is one of only 4 receivers taken in first two rounds those three years to have a career average of more than 10 fantasy points a game. In other words he's been a safe investment for both his fantasy owners and Giants. Immediate contributor.
2015- Cooper was considered the best route runner by most that year. He's been far and away the best WR taken in top two rounds of his draft class and comparable to Diggs for best WR from his class. Immediate contributor.
2014- Odell was considered by many to be the best route runner in his class. Best WR in his class. Immediate contributor.
That's a pretty strong trend of immediate contributors and past being immediate contributors just the best producing WR's from those classes. And when you examine the massive miss ratio on the most of the 22 WR's taken in first two rounds of last 3 years NFL draft it makes me appreciate the safety I see in targeting the better route runners and I'm sure NFL teams, at least some, will agree. This is why I think Ridley likely remains in first round.
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Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
Obviously take this for what it is, but I remember steve smith loved kupp last year too
bostonfred
Footballguy
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Chark. Some of the deeper backs lost luster- Walton and Kelly took a step back. Back end of the first has some talent worth taking.
I think the cool thing about WR's this year is the diversity in who everyone likes the most. My top-3 is Gallup, Wilson, and Washington. I'm sure a 3rd person could have Ridley, Chark, and Miller as their top-3.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Totally agree. I think those 3 are head and shoulders above all other WRs. In the right situations, they could hit really big.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
While it's easier for me to form opinions about the guys in the op 3, I don't have the depth of knowledge/game tape under my belt to really have any opinions on some mid-round gems in this class.
Who do you guys like in terms of later round gems/steals at WR?
Who do you guys like in terms of later round gems/steals at WR?
Football Jones
Footballguy
I'm 100% with you (in general). It's still an elite RB class simply because of depth, but the top of the WR class isn't nearly as far behind the top of the RB class as most people would have you believe.
I think that's probably the best way to put it (again, in general).
I see it almost totally opposite. For me it really is different at the top or put another way it is from a dynasty rookie draft angle. Right now I'd list 6 of my top 7 players as RB's.
Where WR's have really come on strong is not at the top for me but the depth. WR's now IMO rival RB depth, but at the top RB's rule the day.
Football Jones
Footballguy
I guess there are a lot of ways to look at it. The RB class is very deep as far as the number of legit top prospects. Maybe the deepest in recent history, but at the same time, the accumulative RB talent doesn't overwhelm the top of the WR class, IMO (by virtue of some overrated RBs).
That said, I think there are a fair number of "sleeper" WRs so we kind of agree there.
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Yes we do agree on that and yesterday I did a deep study on performance of WR's drafted in first two rounds of the NFL draft over the past 3 years. And I did first two rounds for a reason as that makes up almost every WR chosen in first round of dynasty rookie drafts those 3 years with Caroo as main exception so basically studying the players chosen in first two rounds meant I was looking at the first round dynasty rookie WR's the last 3 years. The results are horrible, stunningly bad really and even worse for the first round picks then the second round guys.
My point on that is it's making me extra gun shy on using a first round pick on a WR, but it seems like a great year to grab a few in round 2 and early round 3. Depth is really impressive to me, but I am struggling with the WR's at the top.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Dylan Cantrell, he's Jeff Janis 2.0. Probably amazing at special teams and could sneak his way into a role and hold on because he's big and athletic.
Deontay Burnett, good at most things, not great at anything in particular. Probably a depth piece but can play inside and outside for different packages. He's a utility knife someone could use.
Anthony Miller, dependent on how far he slides in the NFL draft, but he has tons of talent just off the field issues that hold him back quite a bit.
Love Miller. I think he's better than Ridley or Kirk. Wonder if he may be another Tyreek Hill as far as slipping through the cracks. He's my #4 WR in this class.
Zyphros
Footballguy
He didn't pop like Kirk did to me, but he could be an impact guy in the right situation. He's pretty far down my list of WR's but I think anyone after my top6 of the WR's are pretty much interchangeable. Everyone is going to have their favorites of that bunch of DJ Moore, Anthony Miller, Daeshawn Hamilton, DJ Chark, Jordan Lasley, Cedrick Wilson etc etc. Depends a lot on landing spot and opportunity, but they're all basically guys that are 5'11"-6'0" 200'ish pounds and have played inside and outside.
