JohnnyU
Footballguy
I like Washington over both Ridley and Sutton.I'l take ridley over Sutton
I like Washington over both Ridley and Sutton.I'l take ridley over Sutton
If I own Barkley or the 1.01 and someone is inquiring right now I’m asking for the moon. I wouldn’t be giving up fournette and Davis either, but I don’t blame him for asking. Davis is a good trade target after struggling year 1 and fournette got banged up a little and missed some time, so I can see how they might look at it.fruity pebbles said:I rejected. I have Barkley slightly above Fournette but not Corey Davis above. Seems like giving Davis for nothing and I haven’t given up on him yet, he was the #1 pick in a lot of leagues last year.
One of them is going to the Ravens and will become a JAG. Hope it's Ridley.I like Washington over both Ridley and Sutton.
Just look at Kevin White. I'm just glad I only have him in one league. He wasn't very good before the injury too. Another example of this is L Treadwell, but the jury is still out on him. I for one avoided him in every league.All I need to know is to take the most talented player that is not on a team with poor talent or poor coaching and let him sit on the taxi squad or bench for a few years and see what develops. It used to be you could hope for a plug and play rookie WR to give you some production year one (maybe a flex or bye week filler). Now like QB and TE, WR is really just a development player for the first 2-3 years thanks to the style of play in college.
When I see myself in a position where I'll be forced to draft a WR, my favorite option is to find a 3+ year vet WR (maybe one that had a down year) that I can try to flip the pick for and can be productive now, especially if the owner is one that is "rookie crazy" (there are a few in every league). I have been burned too many times with busts/injuries at rookie WR.
If you look at the numbers, rookie WR's in the past 4 years, have one of the highest bust rates (I'm including injuries here).
Exactly, and Perriman. I'll take a quality 25-30 veteran WR over a rookie any day of the week after the last 4 years. 85% of the time, you'll get much more production vs a rookie sitting on your bench and taking up space. Just like other positions, the WR's are coming into the NFL with limited experience in pr-style offenses and they need to sit on your bench. Like I said, especially come draft time, there are always league members who get sucked into the combine/draft hype and will trade a quality WR for a lottery ticket.Just look at Kevin White. I'm just glad I only have him in one league. He wasn't very good before the injury too. Another example of this is L Treadwell.
In your world maybe but in my world he's been convicted and given the death penalty.Just look at Kevin White. I'm just glad I only have him in one league. He wasn't very good before the injury too. Another example of this is L Treadwell, but the jury is still out on him. I for one avoided him in every league.
Either way he's not my problem.In your world maybe but in my world he's been convicted and given the death penalty.
Marcell Ateman is getting the Brandon Marshall comparison from what I've read.I don't get the Washington love. I think he can be a very nice wr2 on an NFL team but don't see him as a guy who can carry an offense. Bad route running, not great hands and stiff(limiting the route running). He looks like Chris Chambers with better ball tracking. I think drafting him highly and expecting him to be a fantasy difference maker will be a mistake a lot fo people make this draft season (unless some of the talk is real and NFL has him graded as a round 3-4 guy pushing his stock down). Not sure he's the best NFL wr prospect entering the draft from his own team.
Seems we are back to the 3 year breakout for WRs after a few years of rookie WRs coming in, starting and putting up 1k yards. Also looks like we are heading back towards a primary RB or at worst a timeshare of 2 guys with one getting the majority of touches. Beats the 3 and 4 headed monsters like CAR did a few years back and like NE still does.Exactly, and Perriman. I'll take a quality 25-30 veteran WR over a rookie any day of the week after the last 4 years. 85% of the time, you'll get much more production vs a rookie sitting on your bench and taking up space. Just like other positions, the WR's are coming into the NFL with limited experience in pr-style offenses and they need to sit on your bench. Like I said, especially come draft time, there are always league members who get sucked into the combine/draft hype and will trade a quality WR for a lottery ticket.
Ok, I’ll bite.wildabeast49 said:I don't get the Washington love. I think he can be a very nice wr2 on an NFL team but don't see him as a guy who can carry an offense. Bad route running, not great hands and stiff(limiting the route running). He looks like Chris Chambers with better ball tracking. I think drafting him highly and expecting him to be a fantasy difference maker will be a mistake a lot fo people make this draft season (unless some of the talk is real and NFL has him graded as a round 3-4 guy pushing his stock down). Not sure he's the best NFL wr prospect entering the draft from his own team.
Thanks, I've been around for years, just don't post much when I'm only supporting what's already been said over and over. I recognize the production and was a big fan of him last year when we thought he may come out. The more I watch though, the more I think he's just a good NFL wr2. Those don't have top FF value unless they land in very specific situations. Would love to know your thoughts on why he didnt declare and the rumors of the NFL not valuing him highly as they tend to support each other. I know he can say he wanted a shot at a national championship, but when we combint him not declaring as a junior if he was a top wr, missing out on a LOT of money with the hearsay of low draft grades, it worries me (with any prospect not just Washington)Ok, I’ll bite.
First, welcome to FBGs forum.
Secondly, Washington has shown consistency throughout his college career with three 1,000 yard seasons.
The average passer rating of all draft-eligible receivers with at least 48 targets is 105.9. Washington’s is 131.4 which is 13th best. This proves he can catch.
He ranks #1 on Deep Passing yards with 715 yards this shows his ability to not only stretch the field but run past the defenses. How can this not be a plus?
He’s 17 of 35 on deep passes ranking him #2 and 7 TDs on those passes ranking him #5.
To answer your question my friend, this is why we love him.![]()
Tex
Fair points, I thought it was odd too at first but Rudolph stayed as well. They made an agreement that they both would come back at not only a Championship but some records or something they wanted to break. Also, this is common amongst some athletes to go back to school when they were draft-eligible so I didn’t linger on it too long. We may never know the true reason but I remember several top prospects return to school in 2016 and that’s why 2017 was so deep.Thanks, I've been around for years, just don't post much when I'm only supporting what's already been said over and over. I recognize the production and was a big fan of him last year when we thought he may come out. The more I watch though, the more I think he's just a good NFL wr2. Those don't have top FF value unless they land in very specific situations. Would love to know your thoughts on why he didnt declare and the rumors of the NFL not valuing him highly as they tend to support each other. I know he can say he wanted a shot at a national championship, but when we combint him not declaring as a junior if he was a top wr, missing out on a LOT of money with the hearsay of low draft grades, it worries me (with any prospect not just Washington)
I like Sutton over both of them but if Sutton goes to Dallas, Ridley to Baltimore and Washington to SF, I'd take Washington.I like Washington over both Ridley and Sutton.
The more I look at the wrs the more I like the rbs.You have Courtland Sutton, Calvin Ridley, James Washington, Christian Kirk, and Anthony Miller as the best choices (according to me), but we welcome input regarding others not listed here.. I think most dynasty owners will take Sutton first, but after that it gets cloudy. I personally like James Washington and Anthony Miller. I know there are other worthy WRs to talk about but here are the few I have time to talk about now.
Courtland Sutton (SMU) has the best size (6'4" 218) of all these WRs and a lot of upside. 62 receptions, 1017 yds, and 12 tds. There may be some doubt about his ability to separate at the next level and that brings memories of Laquon Treadwell, and his route running needs some work, but he does have plenty of strength to go along with size and will win a lot of jump balls. No doubt he will make a great red zone target. Sutton will be the first WR off the board in many dynasty drafts.
Calvin Ridley (Alabama) probably has the highest floor of any WR, but he may have a low ceiling as well. His numbers this year (55/896/3) don't pop out at you, but there are many factors at play in Alabama. Their ground game is a beast. Ridley is the best route runner in the draft and is very smooth, explosive, and fluid. He doesn't have the best size (6'1" 190), but it isn't terrible either. Even though he doesn't have the size you want he does track the ball very well down field. His ability best shows up in space and can start and stop on a dime and score from anywhere on the field.
James Washington (Oklahoma St.) (6'1" 205) doesn't look like your typical star wide receiver. He's somewhat thick in the lower body He uses that strength to win contested balls and he makes a lot of big plays down the field. He has good speed and tracks the ball well. The knock on Washington is that he needs to improve route running and his ability to read defenses. He may not be successful right away at the next level, but has the chance to be a stud eventually. He's one of my favorite receivers in this draft.
Christian Kirk (Texas A&M) is another one of those undersized WRs that dynasty owners don't like and his numbers this year don't look impressive (58/730/7). However, he has plenty of quickness and speed and runs very good routes. Even though he lacks in size he has plenty of strength and can out muscle defensive backs for contested balls. I believe he will have a very successful NFL career because of his ability to run good routes and his quickness and speed.
Anthony Miller (Memphis) is one of my favorite underrated receivers in the draft. He's a slot WR (5' 11" 190) that makes big plays with his quickness. His numbers are 92/1407/17. He's a defensive back's nightmare in space. He's can score from anywhere on the field. The thing I like about Miller is that he's not just a gimmick player, he runs very good routes, has strong hands, and has the ability to make the hard catch. He tracks the ball well downfield. NFL critics and dynasty FF owners will downgrade him because of his size, but I'll gladly open my arms for him on fantasy draft day.
Washington seems to be getting overlooked at thi s pointI like Washington over both Ridley and Sutton.
5 /128/1 tonight vs VTWashington seems to be getting overlooked at thi s point
It was Southern Miss.Florida State's Auden Tate posted a 5-84-3 the other night.
I'd say good breakdown because I pretty much agree with all of it.What do we think about this class of WR, with the RBs being loaded, there is going to be value at this position in the 2nd round of dynasty drafts....what say you?
Value is the way to go about this year I'd think. There are good guys you can grab that could become that WR2 on a team, none of them are probably WR1's though with 3-4 exceptions. Those being St. Brown, Sutton, and Chark probably. Maybe Christian Kirk in the right situation. Those guys have the size and speed from what was displayed today to POSSIBLY turn into a WR1. I have plenty of doubts among them, but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw even 6-10 of these WR's become solid depth pieces for an NFL team. Obviously that doesn't always produce fantasy numbers so the talk about these guys is a little inflated in my opinion that since he's "the best WR in the class" obviously means he could be a #1 right? Wrong. The easy way to describe them all from 2018 is solid yet unspectacular with a minimal chance of outstanding fantasy production. I'm bumping almost every RB on my list in my rookie rankings because of this, although I still have my favorites that I'm holding out hope for.What do we think about this class of WR, with the RBs being loaded, there is going to be value at this position in the 2nd round of dynasty drafts....what say you?
Yes I forgot DJ Moore, his day was outstanding 4.42 /40 , his jumps were insane and his 3cone was under 7, and there was a lot of buzz pre combine as wellI
I'd say good breakdown because I pretty much agree with all of it.
A few WR's I think belong in discussion with this group, most notably DJ Moore. But I don't think any of those other WR's, other than Moore, are players that are really first round dynasty draft type players, more like solid second round guys.
underlined - very interesting take, the Steelers at WR over the years seemed to have let players develop,Hines Ward, Antonio brown matured into his positon. JuJu being the exception and Martavius obvious has the talent.All in all it's very confusing to me. Not the least bit clear. It's probably not very clear to NFL people either because the amount of non-productive first round picks over last few years at WR is staggering. I think over last 3 years I counted 11 WR's in round one and only one has surpassed 800 yards in a season, a pretty low floor. And that one is Cooper who is coming off a horrific season. I still think a few of them can pull it around, mainly like Corey Davis, but a really bad showing at a position that suddenly seems extremely hard to scout for everyone but the Steeler's.
Paitence yes it does take some time for some of these players to develop. While a few WR have been able to put up big numbers as rookies recently, that is still more the exception than what usually happens with WR and part of it was just that some of the WR from 2014 were so good. They showed it right away. Then that becomes the expectation.underlined - very interesting take, the Steelers at WR over the years seemed to have let players develop,Hines Ward, Antonio brown matured into his positon. JuJu being the exception and Martavius obvious has the talent.
Are team expecting too much from these WRs? Is it the college systems? I'm sure the route tree is limited for the WR in college. Do teams need to show more patience?
Take the Vikings, Diggs was what a 5th round pick, and Theilen was undrafted and their 1st rounder Treadwell is a massive bust....
I look at production a few ways and one way I look at it I would not define Ridley as not producing.Haven’t been high on Ridley, combine hasn’t helped. Older wr that didn’t produce (which gets blamed on qb play).
Yep the 40 is just part of the equation....situation helped both juju n kupp alotJust gonna point out that ju ju ran a 4.54 40 and Kupp ran a 4.62 40.
Seems relevant to the discussion.
Michael Gallup is a name to watch too. He's probably my favorite WR in the class, especially value wise, as I doubt he goes round 1.As far as my rankings, you could really take those names, shake them up, and whatever order dumps out could be how their careers end up.
Deon Cain should be in there somewhere.
Yeah I should have had Gallup in there as well, probably after Chark. I knew I was missing someone in there. I like keke so far but haven’t watched him at all.Michael Gallup is a name to watch too. He's probably my favorite WR in the class, especially value wise, as I doubt he goes round 1.
What was St. Brown's in his good year with Kizer at QB?I look at production a few ways and one way I look at it I would not define Ridley as not producing.
I tend to focus more on percentage of team production more than just personal production, I guess also known as market share. No system is perfect but it's a way to try and factor in the offense, comp and QB instead of just raw stats. A WR putting up stats in the Big 12 is just not the same to me as the SEC.
In this regard Ridley and Chalk's less then amazing stats look a lot better to me, not as good as DJ Moore but a lot better. Can take this further and just sort it out by WR or WR/TE but I've not done that yet but someone like Chalk would look even better I imagine when I do this because a lot of LSU's passing game production was funneled to RB's.
Here is total % of team production in passing game for each of those WR's you listed:
Moore- 53.5%
Ridley- 36%
Miller- 34%
Chark- 33%
Washington- 31%
Sutton- 28%
Kirk- 26%
Cain-22%
St Brown- 22%
On Ridley I've never been concerned about his total production but I do have some concerns that he laid eggs in some major games, when the comp increased his production usually waned and to me that's a bigger red flag then just putting up 900 yards with an option QB throwing to him.
I'm not big on Ridley but why is there a narrative that he didn't produce? What kind of production are people expecting in college? Did people complain that AJ Green and Julio Jones didn't produce in college?Still sorting out the lesser known guys. Haven’t been high on Ridley, combine hasn’t helped. Older wr that didn’t produce (which gets blamed on qb play). He really hits “do not draft” for me
I know I have linked this quite a few times already in different threads.Just gonna point out that ju ju ran a 4.54 40 and Kupp ran a 4.62 40.
Seems relevant to the discussion.
None of the coefficients came out as significant for WR’s. In fact, WR’s are the only position in which the model can’t significantly predict success. This is somewhat surprising. Maybe route-running abilities really are more important than raw athleticism. Also there are different types of receivers in the NFL ranging from smaller, more agile slot receivers to big, strong possession guys. So maybe there just isn’t a simple linear model that account for this variability in predicting success.
I think Ridley being older, has led to some feeling his numbers should have been higher than they were. Green/Julio were also physical marvels, so they felt like they had a much higher ceiling yet to come, which has since proven true.I'm not big on Ridley but why is there a narrative that he didn't produce? What kind of production are people expecting in college? Did people complain that AJ Green and Julio Jones didn't produce in college?
224-2781-19
179-2653-15
166-2619-23
Those are the 3 year college stats of Ridley, Julio, and AJG.
Green did that in 32 games, Jones in 40, Ridley in 44. Yards from scrimmage per game (college career):I'm not big on Ridley but why is there a narrative that he didn't produce? What kind of production are people expecting in college? Did people complain that AJ Green and Julio Jones didn't produce in college?
224-2781-19
179-2653-15
166-2619-23
Those are the 3 year college stats of Ridley, Julio, and AJG.
I still don't see how you hold that against Ridley. Hurts Coker Barnett QBs.Green did that in 32 games, Jones in 40, Ridley in 44. Yards from scrimmage per game (college career):
85.1 AJ Green
69.8 Julio Jones
64.1 Calvin Ridley
Agreed, technically Alabama QBs are RBs who can occasionally complete a pass.I still don't see how you hold that against Ridley. Hurts Coker Barnett QBs.