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Le'veon Bell's trade value (1 Viewer)

yoadrian

yoadrian

Footballguy
Given that there are so few 3 down back options right now I'd think some teams are chomping at the bit to get someone like Bell. So he's on bye week now after a nice game. What's he worth? Who would you trade/accept for him? I'll start:

Garcon

AJ

Marshall

Desean

 
While I certainly understand trying to gauge his trade value, for many teams that own him he's probably not going to be traded. As you said, there aren't many 3-down backs right now in the NFL. And most teams that didn't draft ADP, McCoy or Charles at RB are probably hurting a little bit (no pun intended) at RB, with several injuries now and many other under-performers.

With bye weeks coming, many of the Bell owners are probably thinking that week 6 and following, he'll be needed badly by the team he's already on.

IMHO, in terms of value though - he's a borderline RB1 (a strong RB2 with upside). He won't get in the endzone twice every week, but I could certainly see him putting up 60-80 yards on the ground and 3-6 catches for another 25-40 - so on average about 100 YFS + a score. Some games he might do more, some less, but likely in the 10-18 PPG - more in PPR obviously.

 
DoubleG said:
While I certainly understand trying to gauge his trade value, for many teams that own him he's probably not going to be traded. As you said, there aren't many 3-down backs right now in the NFL. And most teams that didn't draft ADP, McCoy or Charles at RB are probably hurting a little bit (no pun intended) at RB, with several injuries now and many other under-performers.

With bye weeks coming, many of the Bell owners are probably thinking that week 6 and following, he'll be needed badly by the team he's already on.

IMHO, in terms of value though - he's a borderline RB1 (a strong RB2 with upside). He won't get in the endzone twice every week, but I could certainly see him putting up 60-80 yards on the ground and 3-6 catches for another 25-40 - so on average about 100 YFS + a score. Some games he might do more, some less, but likely in the 10-18 PPG - more in PPR obviously.
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But if you have some guys like I dunno, Lynch/Bush or Forte/Richardson, you're already sittin pretty at RB, drafted Bell in rounds 9+, receivers suck, I mean there are a ton of reasons here. Trading Bell for a top WR seems like the best return IMO. Not saying that he puts up these kinds of numbers every week, but his trade value has got to be at its peak now or going into week 6..

 
I was offered Eddie Lacy for Bell + Nicks.

In my eyes Bell is a average RB2, and the fact that the Steelers O-line is poor and they played a weak defense in his first outing stop me from having a more optimistic perception than that.

 
yoadrian said:
Given that there are so few 3 down back options right now I'd think some teams are chomping at the bit to get someone like Bell. So he's on bye week now after a nice game. What's he worth? Who would you trade/accept for him? I'll start:

Garcon

AJ

Marshall

Desean
Click to expand...
May want to look here:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=677842&page=4&hl=%2Bleveon+%2Bbell#entry15757413

Now be prepared for the shark pool police to reprimand you in dead horse beating fashion. Your format of questioning is severely frowned upon here and many people will let you know by chiming in with nonsensical responses. Hopefully it just ends here.

ETA- I should add that I have no problem with the question you asked, but I don't know enough about him to answer. Nor do I own him anywhere.

 
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tdhartis said:
I was offered Eddie Lacy for Bell + Nicks.

In my eyes Bell is a average RB2, and the fact that the Steelers O-line is poor and they played a weak defense in his first outing stop me from having a more optimistic perception than that.
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This.

The Steelers were averaging 3.0 ypc and 52 rush yards per game prior to yesterday. I'm skeptical that LeVeon Bell is going to boost those numbers radically.

If he continues in the lead role, something like 50-60 yards and the occasional score is what I'd be expecting.

 
davearm said:
tdhartis said:
I was offered Eddie Lacy for Bell + Nicks.

In my eyes Bell is a average RB2, and the fact that the Steelers O-line is poor and they played a weak defense in his first outing stop me from having a more optimistic perception than that.
Click to expand...
This.

The Steelers were averaging 3.0 ypc and 52 rush yards per game prior to yesterday. I'm skeptical that LeVeon Bell is going to boost those numbers radically.

If he continues in the lead role, something like 50-60 yards and the occasional score is what I'd be expecting.
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Really? Maybe going into week 5 but going into week 6 I'd think Bell for Lacy straight up is equal. Then again, I don't know why you'd want that kind of trade.

 
yoadrian said:
Given that there are so few 3 down back options right now I'd think some teams are chomping at the bit to get someone like Bell. So he's on bye week now after a nice game. What's he worth? Who would you trade/accept for him? I'll start:

Garcon - Maybe

AJ - Yes

Marshall - Yes

Desean - No
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Depending on need of course, I would probably take any of the 1st three. D-Jax is probably already on the backside of his curve. He disappears a lot.

 
Rove! said:
The TDs are nice, but 3 ypc against one of the worst run Ds is cautionary
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I posted this in another thread, but Bell had 3 short-yardage rushes with 1 yard to go. One was on 3rd and 1, and he converted the FD, the other two were on the 1 yard line. He converted the 2nd (I actually thought he got in on the first). If you factor those out, he averaged 4.2 YPC, which is very similar YPC to what R Bush and M Forte got (Bush-4.3, Forte, 4.7) against Minny.
 
Bayhawks said:
Rove! said:
The TDs are nice, but 3 ypc against one of the worst run Ds is cautionary
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I posted this in another thread, but Bell had 3 short-yardage rushes with 1 yard to go. One was on 3rd and 1, and he converted the FD, the other two were on the 1 yard line. He converted the 2nd (I actually thought he got in on the first). If you factor those out, he averaged 4.2 YPC, which is very similar YPC to what R Bush and M Forte got (Bush-4.3, Forte, 4.7) against Minny.
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This is a good point. While some would argue against the "if you don't count such and so..." line of thinking, the fact is on two of those plays, it is IMPOSSIBLE for him to get credit for more than 1 yard rushing, so I have no problem trying to look at his stats without the two "...and goal from the 1" plays added in.

 
yoadrian said:
davearm said:
tdhartis said:
I was offered Eddie Lacy for Bell + Nicks.

In my eyes Bell is a average RB2, and the fact that the Steelers O-line is poor and they played a weak defense in his first outing stop me from having a more optimistic perception than that.
Click to expand...
This.

The Steelers were averaging 3.0 ypc and 52 rush yards per game prior to yesterday. I'm skeptical that LeVeon Bell is going to boost those numbers radically.

If he continues in the lead role, something like 50-60 yards and the occasional score is what I'd be expecting.
Click to expand...
Really? Maybe going into week 5 but going into week 6 I'd think Bell for Lacy straight up is equal. Then again, I don't know why you'd want that kind of trade.
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50-60 yards and the occasional score is all I would expect from Lacy, too. Maybe a hair less yardage, actually. GB seems to get into a lot of games where their RBs just kinda disappear.

 
1st + player. Or 2 mid to late 1sts. Bell is playing and scoring for me now. If have have to look ahead i will want a little more.

 
Id take bell over lacy. bell is a bigger part of the offense and needed by his team more.

 
Another trade through the pipeline offered to me for Bell:

Doug Martin for Bell + Gordon

Anyone else have any other offers?

 
Have Foster and T Rich. Traded Bell for Josh Gordon, who is a top 15 WR according to FBGUYS rest of season. Had to make the move as I'm basically 0-4.

 
Before he came back, I offered Gore/3rd and it was declined. Now I tried to offer Gore/1st and he has to think about it. I doubt he will accept since he needs that young RB for his team instead of Gore but just to gauge the value it was/is being considered.

If that is declined I think I might offer Gore/Bowe(or James Jones) see if that gets me anywhere

 
Trying to sell high to rb desperate teams in one league:

1st offer I sent: Bell/Gordon for Calvin

2nd Bell/ Gordon for b Marshall

 
GeeYouknit said:
Before he came back, I offered Gore/3rd and it was declined. Now I tried to offer Gore/1st and he has to think about it. I doubt he will accept since he needs that young RB for his team instead of Gore but just to gauge the value it was/is being considered.

If that is declined I think I might offer Gore/Bowe(or James Jones) see if that gets me anywhere
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As a Bell owner, I'd probably bite on this...course the Gore owner is 0-4, so it'd probably be a fairly high pick... :D

 
davearm said:
tdhartis said:
I was offered Eddie Lacy for Bell + Nicks.

In my eyes Bell is a average RB2, and the fact that the Steelers O-line is poor and they played a weak defense in his first outing stop me from having a more optimistic perception than that.
Click to expand...
This.

The Steelers were averaging 3.0 ypc and 52 rush yards per game prior to yesterday. I'm skeptical that LeVeon Bell is going to boost those numbers radically.

If he continues in the lead role, something like 50-60 yards and the occasional score is what I'd be expecting.
Click to expand...
They were sub 3 the first two weeks.

They were 3.84 when heath Miller returned week three, and 3.7 yesterday.

And its the #7 pass offense.

 
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Just traded away Leveon Bell to a 1-3 team for Fitzgerald. I'm blown away that i was able to get that for him.

 
Traded Vick and Bell for D Martin and Big Ben. I liked Bell but he's one bad game from losing a lot of value. He also one more good game from gaining a lot of value. We'll see what happens.

 
kd1 said:
Hartliner said:
Just traded away Leveon Bell to a 1-3 team for Fitzgerald. I'm blown away that i was able to get that for him.
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Why are you blown away? If we were re-drafting at this moment Bell would be drafted ahead of Fitzgerald.
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Correct.

Bell sits top 20 and rising right now as a "rest of the way" RB at 3 different sources that I am aware of.

What is he here at FBG right now?

 
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Hes in a great position to put up some fantasy stats. He is clearly Pitts best RB, They gave him almost all the carries, he was involved in the passing game and got the ball at the goal line. Its rare for teams to feature a RB like that now a days

 
His YPC stats dont look very good for his 1st game but If you watch the game he looked pretty good. It looked like he was in quite a few situation where Pitt only needed a yard or 2 for the first down or TD and Bell always seemed to come through, so those short yardage situation will lower his YPC. He also didnt dance behind the line of scrimmage and looked good finding the wholes and following his blockers, also looked very good on screen passes.

 
Bob Barker said:
His YPC stats dont look very good for his 1st game but If you watch the game he looked pretty good. It looked like he was in quite a few situation where Pitt only needed a yard or 2 for the first down or TD and Bell always seemed to come through, so those short yardage situation will lower his YPC. He also didnt dance behind the line of scrimmage and looked good finding the wholes and following his blockers, also looked very good on screen passes.
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the blocking on Pitt isn't great, but he did look good on a number of runs.

He had 3 carries where he needed a yard (3rd and 1, 2 GL runs from the 1). He got the 1 yard on the 3rd and 1, and it took 2 carries to get the TD (I thought he broke the plane on the 1st carry, personally). Take away those 3 carries for 2 yards, and he averaged 4.2 YPC.

 
Yeah I understand Leveon Bell had a great debut, but with all due respect I think value is very much related to hopes and fears since all we have to go off from is his one NFL game. In my case it is very easy to trade away Bell for Fitz given that I have already two great RB's and I wanted to position my WRs more strongly.

Furthermore, Fitz is at an elite WR's level of talent and his situation is at an unknown since the hammy injury has stifled his production thus far into the season. I expect WR1 numbers and more importantly, I know what I get from Fitz from here on out due to his history.

Bell could/will be valuable or maybe that stinky Steeler O-line will start to give him problems all year and maybe we find that a TD dependent great fantasy stat line in his debut was just a perfect setup to sell high. Heck we won't know until we see. I rather trade Bell away now in getting good value for him but, you guys thinking Bell to be great are doubling down and risking a lot. There is a chance he is going to be that good for Fantasy but I'm going to cash out now and be safe because I don't need that sort of risk right now.

 
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I'd trade bell for fitz in a heartbeat in ppr. I think he's overvalued in this thread by some. Ya he has some upside. I traded him for joique as a Reggie owner and I'm thrilled with that because joique helped me win week 3.

 
I'd trade fitz for bell in a heartbeat in ppr. :shrug: Fitz is an uberstud talent, but he is wasting away in Ariz, much like SJax did in StL all those years.

Bell has a lot going for him:

1) Draft status/pedigree

2) Bell cow getting 75%+ RB touches

3) Targeted in the passing game

4) Goal line back

OLine is definitely a concern, as well as the Pitt O overall, but, Bell is going to be valuable going forward.

 
I'm not saying this will fix the PIT O-line situation at all, but fwiw Levi Brown is rated as a top 10 run blocking tackle by PFF. With Heath healthy and the line making small improvements, I'm happy to have a 3-down goal line back who is very talented.

 
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Not for my team. If Reggie were to get hurt, I'd rather start joique in an elite offense. Don't own a steeler in any league and I'm good with that.

As for Fitzgerald, the cardinals will improve.

 
bucsbaby said:
I'd trade fitz for bell in a heartbeat in ppr. :shrug: Fitz is an uberstud talent, but he is wasting away in Ariz, much like SJax did in StL all those years.
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You see, I don't get this. Is he? An uberstud is a guy like Calvin Johnson who will produce and dominate with guys like Drew Stanton and Shaun Hill throwing it to him. What has Larry Fitzgerald ever done without having a potential HOF QB throwing it to him?

Year after year since Warner retired, Fitzgerald owners blame the Arizona QBs for Fitzgerald's lack of production vs. his draft position. Sooner or later, the blame has got to fall on Fitzgerald somewhat.

 
jeeb said:
bucsbaby said:
I'd trade fitz for bell in a heartbeat in ppr. :shrug: Fitz is an uberstud talent, but he is wasting away in Ariz, much like SJax did in StL all those years.
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You see, I don't get this. Is he? An uberstud is a guy like Calvin Johnson who will produce and dominate with guys like Drew Stanton and Shaun Hill throwing it to him. What has Larry Fitzgerald ever done without having a potential HOF QB throwing it to him?

Year after year since Warner retired, Fitzgerald owners blame the Arizona QBs for Fitzgerald's lack of production vs. his draft position. Sooner or later, the blame has got to fall on Fitzgerald somewhat.
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Fitzgerald is on pace for 80 catches and 12 touchdowns. It's not 100 catches like the Warner days but fitz is putting up the wr2 numbers I projected. And I see that offense having the potential for slight improvement as they get more experience in Arians' system.

 
ryno1980 said:
Collusion to acquire my Reggie bush handcuff? I'd love to hear how that works
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Okay, I'll bite... Joique's value is very small when Reggie is healthy, relying on him as a weekly starter on your team is misery. I can count on one hand the amount of 3 down backs there are in the NFL this season, Leveon being one of them. Do you trade a workhorse for a handcuff? Collusion wasn't serious, but just giving you an idea of how bad I think that trade is.

BTW, Lev carried the rock 382 times last year, he has the ability to be a horse.

 
I get that lev has potential. That's why I drafted him as my 5th back. I'd still make the deal today. With McCoy and bush ill be fine and use fjax and lacy as my bye week fillers. Ros, id put Leveon around 20th. Joique won't be much worse than that

 
ryno1980 said:
I get that lev has potential. That's why I drafted him as my 5th back. I'd still make the deal today. With McCoy and bush ill be fine and use fjax and lacy as my bye week fillers. Ros, id put Leveon around 20th. Joique won't be much worse than that
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I like him better then that..

Funny we have the exact same backs... I'm actually moving FJax for Brady though & holding Bell

 
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