Lewis signed... Whats this mean for Denver? (1 Viewer)

[Warpig]

I hear they're bringing back Clarrett!

 

[P Boy]

Are we doing this yet again? You make your assertions, and then I retort with evidence from last year that directly refutes your assertions.

Which i refute by noting last year Dayne was used in extremely limited service. And as we all know the backup running back always comes in and romps during spot duty. Dayne has never proven capable of carrying anything like a full NFL load effectively, last year notwithstanding. And as you may recall, Quentin Griffin romped though a few games as well.

However, when with the Giants, when Dayne had 18 or more carries in a game, he averaged 3.77 ypc and 0.75 TD/game.That equates over a 16 game season with 20 carries per game to just over 1200 yds rushing & 12 TDs. Now, those aren't spectacular numbers for sure, but they would have been good enough for 12th best rushing yds in the NFL last year, and would have tied him for 5th in rushing TDs in the NFL - and was also done when the Giants were a mediocre rushing team in the NFL.

Again, there are some indicators that Dayne may do well in the DEN system, especially since Shanahan seems to really like him. The only way to know with certainty how Dayne may do as the featured RB in DEN is to see how things shake out as we go through the offseason & preseason and see if he wins the job.

 

[Loan Sharks]

Denver will draft its starting RB this April.

Should be a good one now that Minny and Arizona will probably pass on a RB.

 

[mbuehner]

However, when with the Giants, when Dayne had 18 or more carries in a game, he averaged 3.77 ypc and 0.75 TD/game.

That equates over a 16 game season with 20 carries per game to just over 1200 yds rushing & 12 TDs. Now, those aren't spectacular numbers for sure, but they would have been good enough for 12th best rushing yds in the NFL last year

All you are saying is that if Dayne could play well all the time he would play well. Duh. But of course the reason he has 'good games' with over 20 carries is that when he wasnt having good games (ie the vast majority of the time) he was replaced by Barber who would then produce. So he didnt have 20+ carry bad games because he wasnt allowed to. Thats like saying a pitcher is awesome every time he has complete games. Uh, yeh except that he has complete games because he is playing awesome. When you are playing badly you get pulled.

Besides somebody did a statistical analysis and Dayne gets worse later in games, which for a good tough running back is the opposite. Dayne might be a flag football HOFer, but he doesnt seem to enjoy playing tackle.

 

[SSOG]

Quick handicap:

% chance to lock-in the #1 RB for the Broncos

Dayne: 40%

Bell: 40%

Rookie: 10%

UFA/Trade: 10%

Conclusion:

Messed up situation for Fantasy owners. Own as many of the options and cross your fingers.

I put it more like 70% Dayne, 20% Bell, 10% rookie... but that's just me.

I guess I know more than Shanahan about RBs also, if that is the standard.

True, you did call that one nicely. But my question is why is Ron Dayne going to succeed when he's a slower, less ellusive version of Q? IE- falls down on first contact- or more accurately when he thinks he's about to be contacted.

actually Dayne ran rather well last year when given the chance. My problem with the whole situation is if Dayne is "the man" like MA was last year it's an RBBC with Dayne getting the goal line action. Thus, Dayne will be worthy of a decent pick but Bell will also get carries and lead to the same headaches as last year. Dayne = MA.

Again, MA was a top-10 RB last season, so is that really such a bad thing? He's no Shaun Alexander, but how many potential top-10 RBs will still be around next year in the fifth, sixth, or possibly even later rounds?

Denver will draft its starting RB this April.

Should be a good one now that Minny and Arizona will probably pass on a RB.

Denver doesn't traditionally draft RBs high. Denver doesn't traditionally start rookie RBs if they can help it. Denver doesn't traditionally pay big money for an RB's services. Traditions can be broken... but I usually don't bet on it.

 

[SSOG]

Denver will draft its starting RB this April.

Shanahan has drafted 9 RBs in his 11 years. Only two of them have been handed the starting job (Portis and Davis). Anderson and Gary were both backups who got the start after injuries ahead of them on the depth chart. Griffin, again, was an injury sub. Tatum Bell... didn't get a start his rookie year.Shanahan's extremely strict blocking requirements means it's very uncommon for a rookie RB to win the starting job- and even though Portis did, it took him 4 weeks into the season to get his blocking and carrying up to snuff.

Dayne is the man, now!

Shanahan simply can't be this stupid. It's just not possible.

Perhaps its possible that Shanahan knows more about RBs than you do.

Quoted for emphasis/agreement.

I'm with ya magic.. just need people to beliver that dayne is top 15 RB material just cause he is in DENVER

Well... everyone else has been top-15 RB material just because they're in Denver. Reuben Droughns was a backup fullback. Olandis Gary couldn't beat out Shaun Bryson for a job in Detroit. Both of these guys were top-15 RBs in Denver.

Last year was a mess and it might be the same this year just with a different cast of characters. Anyone trying to figure out what Shanny will/won't do might as well throw darts at a dartboard. It's certainly a situation that I will avoid this year regardless of the potential upside.

Last year wasn't a mess. Denver's starting RB was a top-10 RB. I mean, if Rudi Johnson had scored exactly as many points as he did, and Chris Perry had scored three times as many as he did, would that have made Cincinatti's rushing attack a mess? Because in both instances, the starting RB was a stud, regardless of WHAT the backup did.

Is Tatum Bell chopped liver?

I've never seen a more disrespected guy with a career 5.3 YPC in my life.

Tatum Bell's ypc is impressive, yes... but look at the breakdown per carry. His ypc drops drastically after 12-13 carries. Shanahan's concern about giving him 25 carries is understandable.

 

[P Boy]

However, when with the Giants, when Dayne had 18 or more carries in a game, he averaged 3.77 ypc and 0.75 TD/game.

That equates over a 16 game season with 20 carries per game to just over 1200 yds rushing & 12 TDs. Now, those aren't spectacular numbers for sure, but they would have been good enough for 12th best rushing yds in the NFL last year

All you are saying is that if Dayne could play well all the time he would play well. Duh. But of course the reason he has 'good games' with over 20 carries is that when he wasnt having good games (ie the vast majority of the time) he was replaced by Barber who would then produce. So he didnt have 20+ carry bad games because he wasnt allowed to. Thats like saying a pitcher is awesome every time he has complete games. Uh, yeh except that he has complete games because he is playing awesome. When you are playing badly you get pulled.

Besides somebody did a statistical analysis and Dayne gets worse later in games, which for a good tough running back is the opposite. Dayne might be a flag football HOFer, but he doesnt seem to enjoy playing tackle.

Okay. Well, we'll just have to see. I know your mind is made up, and I'm tired of doing research when its pointless to present the numbers.

 

[mbuehner]

Okay. Well, we'll just have to see. I know your mind is made up, and I'm tired of doing research when its pointless to present the numbers.

And im tired of you ignoring the implication of your own research. But regardless you certainly could be right and I acknowledge you know the Broncos.But you're not

 

[Baracuda]

How can Denver be currently inquiring about Ricky Williams given the uncertainty of his appeal? Was that article from the Denver Post recent? Or does this imply they believe Ricky will win the appeal? After all, they know what he tested positive for.

 

[Cookiemonster]

J.Harrison, P.J.Daniels or T.Whitehead in '07?

 

[bumpman]

Quick handicap:

% chance to lock-in the #1 RB for the Broncos

Dayne: 40%

Bell: 40%

Rookie: 10%

UFA/Trade: 10%

Conclusion:

Messed up situation for Fantasy owners.  Own as many of the options and cross your fingers.

I put it more like 70% Dayne, 20% Bell, 10% rookie... but that's just me.

I guess I know more than Shanahan about RBs also, if that is the standard.

True, you did call that one nicely. But my question is why is Ron Dayne going to succeed when he's a slower, less ellusive version of Q? IE- falls down on first contact- or more accurately when he thinks he's about to be contacted.

actually Dayne ran rather well last year when given the chance. My problem with the whole situation is if Dayne is "the man" like MA was last year it's an RBBC with Dayne getting the goal line action. Thus, Dayne will be worthy of a decent pick but Bell will also get carries and lead to the same headaches as last year. Dayne = MA.

Again, MA was a top-10 RB last season, so is that really such a bad thing? He's no Shaun Alexander, but how many potential top-10 RBs will still be around next year in the fifth, sixth, or possibly even later rounds?

Denver will draft its starting RB this April.

Should be a good one now that Minny and Arizona will probably pass on a RB.

Denver doesn't traditionally draft RBs high. Denver doesn't traditionally start rookie RBs if they can help it. Denver doesn't traditionally pay big money for an RB's services. Traditions can be broken... but I usually don't bet on it.

Until last year, Denver didn't use RBBC either. Davis was a sixth round pick that beat out the incumbant, Aaron Craver in training camp. That leads me to believe that Denver doesn't have any bias against starting rookies over veterans. I wouldn't bet on such a bias.

 

[TCFF]

As always, it will be interesting to see how the Denver RB situation shakes out this year. That being said, Dayne will have decent numbers if given the chance in Denver. Of course most backs, given the chance, have had success in Denver. The real fantasy implications, IMHO, that result from a switch from Anderson to Dayne will be an increase in Plummer's TDs (both passing and rushing). Dayne has proven time and time again that lowering the shoulder for short yardage is not his A game. Anderson was good at this. If Anderson had 12 tds last year and Dayne only has, lets say 7, chances are the other 5 will be made up by a few qb sneaks and some of the dump off passes to the full back that Denver does so well.

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

Tatum Bell's ypc is impressive, yes... but look at the breakdown per carry. His ypc drops drastically after 12-13 carries. Shanahan's concern about giving him 25 carries is understandable.

I hear this often. It is more or less universally accepted, yet I have never actually seen the numbers on this. A cursory purusal of his games does not make this abundantly clear to me, I guess I need to sit down and break him down more carefully, as I assume Shanahan and Bobby Turner have. Still it seems to me his numbers are fairly randomly distributed and that we have a fairly small sample size. I assume, therefore, that Shanhan's problems are not merely # related but that he sees some errors as carries pile up that concern him as well even if our crude stats do not capture those difficiencies.Do you have this already broken down? Please post if so.

 

[Yao Ming]

William Green anyone?

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

O.K., I looked it up.

Ten or less carries he is averaging 6.2 ypc. On 10 or more 2.9ypc.

In 29 games he has only exceeded 12 carries 10 times.

When he goes over 12 carries he does so on average only 3.4 carries. He has never been given the opportunity to go past 17 carries, ever.

Frankly I find the stats to be so minimal as to likely be statistically insignificant, but they do clearly back up SSOG's, and therefore Shanahan's, position.

 

[SSOG]

Until last year, Denver didn't use RBBC either.

Davis was a sixth round pick that beat out the incumbant, Aaron Craver in training camp. That leads me to believe that Denver doesn't have any bias against starting rookies over veterans. I wouldn't bet on such a bias.

I understand that traditions CAN be broken, but given the choice, I'm not going to bet against tradition. I mean, Pittsburgh COULD have 10 different head coaches over the next 20 years... but the fact that they've had a total of 2 coaches since 1969 leads me to the conclusion that the owners value stability, and therefore I'm not going to bet on it.As for Davis... first, he beat out Aaron Craver. The immortal Aaron Craver. And while Davis was a rookie, Craver was a free agent from Miami in his first year in Denver and had 29 career carries. So in other words, it's not like the competition for the job was that stiff. Second, that was in Shanahan's first year. Shanahan DEMANDS excellent blocking from all players on the field at all times. This is why Putzier got such minimal use. Anyway, in Shanahan's first season, Denver's offensive players weren't necessarily the highly-trained blocking machines that they are today. It was easier for a rookie to win the job back then, because first of all, there weren't any Shanahan-quality RBs in place, and second of all, there wasn't anyone trained in Shanahan-quality blocking (or running in the Gibbs blocking scheme, for that matter). Please keep in mind that this point is only speculation on one possible explanation, and not the Gospel According To Mike. That said, the only guy since then who has unseated the backs ahead of him in his rookie season was Clinton Portis. Clinton Portis is a phenominal, ridiculous talent. Clinton Portis also didn't manage to unseat the guys in front of him until the 5th game of the season.

I don't think Shanahan has a bias against starting rookies over veterans. In fact, one of Shanahan's strengths as a coach is that he doesn't have a natural bias against anyone. Whoever plays the best plays the most, regardless of tenure or salary. I'm not betting on Shanahan's bias to keep the rookie from competing... I'm betting on the ridiculous learning curve to keep the rookie from competing.

Tatum Bell's ypc is impressive, yes... but look at the breakdown per carry. His ypc drops drastically after 12-13 carries. Shanahan's concern about giving him 25 carries is understandable.

I hear this often. It is more or less universally accepted, yet I have never actually seen the numbers on this. A cursory purusal of his games does not make this abundantly clear to me, I guess I need to sit down and break him down more carefully, as I assume Shanahan and Bobby Turner have. Still it seems to me his numbers are fairly randomly distributed and that we have a fairly small sample size. I assume, therefore, that Shanhan's problems are not merely # related but that he sees some errors as carries pile up that concern him as well even if our crude stats do not capture those difficiencies.Do you have this already broken down? Please post if so.

Sports.yahoo.com always has the best situational statistical breakdowns I've ever found on the net. I'll be using data from there.Here are Bell's splits.

Here is the important part:

Games 1-8: 80 rushes, 562 yards, 7.0 per carry, 5 TDs

Games 9-16: 93 rushes, 359 yards, 3.9 per carry, 3 TDs

Here are his situational stats.

Here is the important part:

Carry 1-5: 70 for 378 and 2 scores. 5.4 per carry.

Carry 6-10: 58 for 411 and 4 scores. 7.1 per carry.

Carry 11-15: 39 for 104 and 1 score. 2.7 per carry.

Carry 16-20: 6 for 28 and 1 score. 4.7 per carry.

I agree that there's really not a whole lot of data here, but I'd say it's enough to be relevant (except for the carry 16-20 point), especially since Shanahan also sees Bell in training camps and practices and most certainly agrees with the conclusion that this data supports. He's gone on record saying that Bell wears down and he doesn't want to load up on Bell's carries because he'll lose his effectiveness.

 

[bumpman]

Until last year, Denver didn't use RBBC either. 

Davis was a sixth round pick that beat out the incumbant, Aaron Craver in training camp.  That leads me to believe that Denver doesn't have any bias against starting rookies over veterans.  I wouldn't bet on such a bias.

I understand that traditions CAN be broken, but given the choice, I'm not going to bet against tradition. I mean, Pittsburgh COULD have 10 different head coaches over the next 20 years... but the fact that they've had a total of 2 coaches since 1969 leads me to the conclusion that the owners value stability, and therefore I'm not going to bet on it.As for Davis... first, he beat out Aaron Craver. The immortal Aaron Craver. And while Davis was a rookie, Craver was a free agent from Miami in his first year in Denver and had 29 career carries. So in other words, it's not like the competition for the job was that stiff. Second, that was in Shanahan's first year. Shanahan DEMANDS excellent blocking from all players on the field at all times. This is why Putzier got such minimal use. Anyway, in Shanahan's first season, Denver's offensive players weren't necessarily the highly-trained blocking machines that they are today. It was easier for a rookie to win the job back then, because first of all, there weren't any Shanahan-quality RBs in place, and second of all, there wasn't anyone trained in Shanahan-quality blocking (or running in the Gibbs blocking scheme, for that matter). Please keep in mind that this point is only speculation on one possible explanation, and not the Gospel According To Mike. That said, the only guy since then who has unseated the backs ahead of him in his rookie season was Clinton Portis. Clinton Portis is a phenominal, ridiculous talent. Clinton Portis also didn't manage to unseat the guys in front of him until the 5th game of the season.

I don't think Shanahan has a bias against starting rookies over veterans. In fact, one of Shanahan's strengths as a coach is that he doesn't have a natural bias against anyone. Whoever plays the best plays the most, regardless of tenure or salary. I'm not betting on Shanahan's bias to keep the rookie from competing... I'm betting on the ridiculous learning curve to keep the rookie from competing.

I guess I agree that rookies have a natural disadvantage coming in, and I also agree that Aaron Craver was certainly no proven commodity when TD came up against him. That being said, TD was only a sixth round pick, yet he rushed for over 1000 yds and 8 tds as a rookie in that developing (your concept) rushing offensive machine. Mike Anderson also went for 1000 plus as a rookie. Basically, it is clear that any decently talented runner can do well in that scheme, especially durable north-south runners who can hit the cutback lanes fast. If Ron Dayne is the real incumbant competition that a rookie has to contend with (as people in this thread are suggesting), I give a rookie taken in the first three rounds of the draft an even chance to displace Dayne by the fifth game of the season as the starter. Craver may not have had an established body of work going for him, but Dayne actually has had a long history of mediocrity that, I believe, will put him on a very short leash. Also, his salary is peanuts, so there is no real financial investment to be wasted or lost by Denver if Dayne is displaced.

 

[Franknbeans]

How can Denver be currently inquiring about Ricky Williams given the uncertainty of his appeal? Was that article from the Denver Post recent? Or does this imply they believe Ricky will win the appeal? After all, they know what he tested positive for.

Got it off of here. As you can see it is in the rumors section and I have yet to find the Post's rendition. Obviously, it all depends on his appeal but I certainly wouldn't put it past Shanahan to take a stab at Ricky if his appeal is upheld.

 

[Baracuda]

Thanks, that would be awesome.

 

[Arm Chair Express]

Is Tatum Bell chopped liver?

I've never seen a more disrespected guy with a career 5.3 YPC in my life.

can't block = spot player for Shanahan

 

[nygiants56]

Kevan Barlow???

bingo..shanny LOVES BARLOW!!!!

I'll bet he trades a 4th or 5th round pick to SF to take him off their hands..

 

[nygiants56]

Last year was a mess and it might be the same this year just with a different cast of characters.  Anyone trying to figure out what Shanny will/won't do might as well throw darts at a dartboard.  It's certainly a situation that I will avoid this year regardless of the potential upside.

Not necessarily. You just have to understand the type of RB Shanahan likes. I supported Q-Tip, but he didn't fit the mold of all the previous RBs. I think the only reason Q got so much hype was because of the success Portis had who was an undersized back compared to the other guys they'd had there.

So the real question is.. does Dayne play like a traditional Shanahan back and can he be successful in that role?

It will be interesting to see if his stay in Denver has permanently cured him of the happy dancer feet he had in NY.

as a Giants fan i can say good luck with Dayne! he's nothing more than 3 yards and a cloud of dust..falls down way to easily for a such a big RB...he's a power-less RB...when was the last time he knocked someone over or ran thru people like some of the other so-called 'power backs' do? he is Chicken Little...he's a ballerina in a RB's outfit..

 

[SSOG]

as a Giants fan i can say good luck with Dayne! he's nothing more than 3 yards and a cloud of dust..falls down way to easily for a such a big RB...he's a power-less RB...when was the last time he knocked someone over or ran thru people like some of the other so-called 'power backs' do? he is Chicken Little...he's a ballerina in a RB's outfit..

November 24th, 2005.