LHUCKS' 4th Annual FBG Rankings Critique (1 Viewer)

[rascal]

I'm curious as to why everyone is so down on McCardell this year but up on Reche Caldwell.

I think Rivers concerns some people regarding McCardell's numbrs.On Caldwell, he looks like the favorite to start at this juncture unless you think Troy Brown or Chad Jackson have a shot. It really doesn't seem like most are high on Caldwell, his consensus ranking is #62.

I'm a dolt, I completely forgot that Caldwell has moved on to NE.

 

[rascal]

I'm intrigued as well with the Stallworth and Horn situation. But IMO there are too many questions currently to give me enough happy feelings to justify either of them being labeled as "undervalued".

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I'm intrigued as well with the Stallworth and Horn situation. But IMO there are too many questions currently to give me enough happy feelings to justify either of them being labeled as "undervalued".

All Horn needs to put up to justify his current ADP is ~ 1,000 & 5.Would you take the over or under on that?

 

[MLBrandow]

I just don't see how Galloway can put up numbers like he did before the offensive pieces were in all in place.  He's going into his 12th year and will be facing the better corners on each team as well as the double teams just like last year.  Only this year Simms has six other guys to throw to instead of two.

Remember, I'm not saying Galloway will duplicate his numbers as I have him ranked 14th. I'm simply stating he's undervalued as the #22 ranked WR.

Guess we can just disagree. I think 14th is a longshot for a WR2 in a fully-realized WCO.

 

[LHUCKS]

every time i read something about him that came out of 04 and 05 training camps, it was dissappointing. he may well keep that starting job, but i'm in a wait-and-see mode on him.

Remember that Williams came in as an underclassman...he's still very young.

 

[LHUCKS]

I just don't see how Galloway can put up numbers like he did before the offensive pieces were in all in place.  He's going into his 12th year and will be facing the better corners on each team as well as the double teams just like last year.  Only this year Simms has six other guys to throw to instead of two.

Remember, I'm not saying Galloway will duplicate his numbers as I have him ranked 14th. I'm simply stating he's undervalued as the #22 ranked WR.

Guess we can just disagree. I think 14th is a longshot for a WR2 in a fully-realized WCO.

I've never seen Galloway referred to as the #2 WR in TB...do you mean fantasy #2?

 

[LHUCKS]

I'm intrigued as well with the Stallworth and Horn situation.  But IMO there are too many questions currently to give me enough happy feelings to justify either of them being labeled as "undervalued".

All Horn needs to put up to justify his current ADP is ~ 1,000 & 5.Would you take the over or under on that?

New Orleans is one of the tougher situations to figure out as it appears to be the model for unknown variables. Very tough to predict with any degree of certainty.

 

[rascal]

I'm intrigued as well with the Stallworth and Horn situation.  But IMO there are too many questions currently to give me enough happy feelings to justify either of them being labeled as "undervalued".

All Horn needs to put up to justify his current ADP is ~ 1,000 & 5.Would you take the over or under on that?

Before last year that was easy, now...who knows.

 

[The Ref]

but I don't get paid to do this so we'll see how much free time I have on my hands before training camps start.

Call me a Lhucks shill, but this is something that should be changed. At least get the man a free T-Shirt or something.

Great job as always Lhucks, I always feel better about ranking players ahead of the FBG's average (Like I have this year with both Mason and Galloway) when your on the same page.

 

[LHUCKS]

Great job as always Lhucks, I always feel better about ranking players ahead of the FBG's average (Like I have this year with both Mason and Galloway) when your on the same page.

 

[rascal]

What's your opinion of Branch? His ADP of 21 seems a bit low since he is the undisputed #1 option now.

 

[jziccfbg]

Lhucks as always -- great postings

 

[LHUCKS]

What's your opinion of Branch? His ADP of 21 seems a bit low since he is the undisputed #1 option now.

Limited upside given Brady's ability to spread the ball around, but if Caldwell/Brown/Jackson can't provide solid depth it's reasonable to expect a slight increase in targets. Additionally, I wouldn't be surprised if BB at least tries to get back to a more balanced offense. Basically I think his ranking/ADP are about where they should be.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

are you as high on s. moss in a ppr as you are in a non-ppr?

 

[sholditch]

I think that for Mason you should look at his 2004 totals as his ceiling for this year and not expect to get much beyond that:

1. He's now two years older than he was on that team

2. McNair is also two years older and learning a new scheme

3. Ravens are still a run-first team

4. Mark Bradley in 06 represents equal if not better competition than Drew Bennett in 04

5. Mason lost a step from 03-04 which is reflected in his stats. He no longer has the ability to stretch the field.

I think expecting something close to his 04 totals is reasonable but expecting the average of 04- and 03 is a little crazy.

 

[LHUCKS]

are you as high on s. moss in a ppr as you are in a non-ppr?

knocks his relative worth down a little but not much.

 

[ScottNorwood]

I agree that Delicious Jurevicius is underrated. He's not the sexiest pick, but he runs good routes and has great hands.

 

[LHUCKS]

I agree that Delicious Jurevicius is underrated.  He's not the sexiest pick, but he runs good routes and has great hands.

He's also the best WR on the team until Edwards matures and is 100%. He should see quite a few targets this year...if he stays healthy he'll be a steal.

 

[Bri]

I agree that Delicious Jurevicius is underrated.  He's not the sexiest pick, but he runs good routes and has great hands.

He's also the best WR on the team until Edwards matures and is 100%. He should see quite a few targets this year.

One could argue Northcutt is better

 

[Bri]

I think that for Mason you should look at his 2004 totals as his ceiling for this year and not expect to get much beyond that:

1. He's now two years older than he was on that team

2. McNair is also two years older and learning a new scheme

3. Ravens are still a run-first team

4. Mark Bradley in 06 represents equal if not better competition than Drew Bennett in 04

5. Mason lost a step from 03-04 which is reflected in his stats. He no longer has the ability to stretch the field.

I think expecting something close to his 04 totals is reasonable but expecting the average of 04- and 03 is a little crazy.

isn't Mark Bradley a Bears WR?

 

[Bri]

What's your opinion of Branch?  His ADP of 21 seems a bit low since he is the undisputed #1 option now.

Limited upside given Brady's ability to spread the ball around, but if Caldwell/Brown/Jackson can't provide solid depth it's reasonable to expect a slight increase in targets. Additionally, I wouldn't be surprised if BB at least tries to get back to a more balanced offense. Basically I think his ranking/ADP are about where they should be.

I know WR thread but where's the TEs targets fit into this esp increased role for Watson?

 

[LHUCKS]

I agree that Delicious Jurevicius is underrated.  He's not the sexiest pick, but he runs good routes and has great hands.

He's also the best WR on the team until Edwards matures and is 100%. He should see quite a few targets this year.

One could argue Northcutt is better

I like D. Northcutt as a posession WR(plus he went to my alma mater) but JJ is a TD threat which increases his upside quite a bit.

 

[LHUCKS]

I think that for Mason you should look at his 2004 totals as his ceiling for this year and not expect to get much beyond that:

1. He's now two years older than he was on that team

2. McNair is also two years older and learning a new scheme

3. Ravens are still a run-first team

4. Mark Bradley in 06 represents equal if not better competition than Drew Bennett in 04

5. Mason lost a step from 03-04 which is reflected in his stats. He no longer has the ability to stretch the field.

I think expecting something close to his 04 totals is reasonable but expecting the average of 04- and 03 is a little crazy.

isn't Mark Bradley a Bears WR?

he meant clayton

 

[ScottNorwood]

I agree that Delicious Jurevicius is underrated. He's not the sexiest pick, but he runs good routes and has great hands.

He's also the best WR on the team until Edwards matures and is 100%. He should see quite a few targets this year.

One could argue Northcutt is better

I like D. Northcutt as a posession WR(plus he went to my alma mater) but JJ is a TD threat which increases his upside quite a bit.

He said one could argue... He didn't say one could argue with a straight face.

 

[LHUCKS]

What's your opinion of Branch?  His ADP of 21 seems a bit low since he is the undisputed #1 option now.

Limited upside given Brady's ability to spread the ball around, but if Caldwell/Brown/Jackson can't provide solid depth it's reasonable to expect a slight increase in targets. Additionally, I wouldn't be surprised if BB at least tries to get back to a more balanced offense. Basically I think his ranking/ADP are about where they should be.

I know WR thread but where's the TEs targets fit into this esp increased role for Watson?

Watson will see increased targets and I project that to dip into the WR#2/TE#2 targets. I believe Branch will still get his.

 

[LHUCKS]

It's interesting that this year I seem to be on the same page with Tremblay the most...last year it was Wood and Henry.

 

[Bri]

I agree that Delicious Jurevicius is underrated.  He's not the sexiest pick, but he runs good routes and has great hands.

He's also the best WR on the team until Edwards matures and is 100%. He should see quite a few targets this year.

One could argue Northcutt is better

I like D. Northcutt as a posession WR(plus he went to my alma mater) but JJ is a TD threat which increases his upside quite a bit.

one good year makes him a TD threat? So Sellers is in Washington?In 8 years, Northcutt has better+more reliable stats than Jurevicius and he knows the system and has a repoire with the QB.

http://www.profootballreference.com/players/JureJo00.htm

http://www.profootballreference.com/players/NortDe00.htm

I don't think there's a best WR and instead think it'll look like the Pats when Branch has gotten hurt, a WR by committee of sorts. JJ one week, Northcutt the next, maybe Wilson another week.

Jurevicius exploded to have two 137 yard games last year, otherwise his games were quite "eh" and very much like he's been throughout his career.

http://www.profootballreference.com/games/JureJo00.htm#2005

 

[LHUCKS]

one good year makes him a TD threat?

No, 6'5" 230 lbs makes him a TD threat. Tremendous athlete.

 

[Bri]

one good year makes him a TD threat?

No, 6'5" 230 lbs makes him a TD threat. Tremendous athlete.

so he was shorter when he averaged 2-3 TDs per year the other 7 years?

 

[LHUCKS]

one good year makes him a TD threat?

No, 6'5" 230 lbs makes him a TD threat. Tremendous athlete.

so he was shorter when he averaged 2-3 TDs per year the other 7 years?

obviously no...he wasn't playing enough to score TDs back then. It's not uncommon for WRs to reach their peak performance in years 6-9, actually I think it's close to the norm.

 

[LHUCKS]

Damn...I totally forgot to write up Koren Robinson.

Now I definitely have to write an addendum.

 

[rascal]

It's interesting that this year I seem to be on the same page with Tremblay the most...last year it was Wood and Henry.

I am as well with a few exceptions.Boldin at #4

Matt Jones at #19 (about 5-10 to high)

Reggie WIlliams ahead of L Coles or that high (I have him in the 40's)

Engram @ 38

D Bennett at 57.

BTW...if R Ferguson is the #2 in GB do you think his ranking of 51 is too low?

 

[LHUCKS]

BTW...if R Ferguson is the #2 in GB do you think his ranking of 51 is too low?

No because I think there's a good chance he gets injured or after the Pack falls out of contention Jennings will be given increased playing time. Not to mention I think Gardner is a better athlete than Ferguson.

How about this, If Ferguson is the #2 and he plays all 16 games he will be decent value at #51.

 

[hickbones]

every time i read something about him that came out of 04 and 05 training camps, it was dissappointing.  he may well keep that starting job, but i'm in a wait-and-see mode on him.

Remember that Williams came in as an underclassman...he's still very young.

That's for sure. I think he is the most immature Jaguar. I'm here in Jax and Reggie Williams fans are hard to come by. He'll jump up and do a touchdown dance after a six yard catch on 3rd and eight from his own 35. Moron.From what I'm hearing here, the 1 and 2 spots are being handed to Jones and Williams on pure talent alone, with the staff hoping Jones is the stud. Leftwich has all the confidence in the world in Wilford on 3 receiver sets, but I haven't yet seen anywhere near the same comfort level with Williams. Williams has the talent, Wilford has the maturity...if only one of them had both. Maybe I'm biased because I hate the guy, but I don't see Williams as underrated as you do. Underrated, yes, but not a ton. I hope I'm wrong because we need him to step up!

 

[MLBrandow]

Watson will see increased targets and I project that to dip into the WR#2/TE#2 targets. I believe Branch will still get his.

I read somewhere that NE has plans to not just increase Watson's role, but perhaps increase it enough to make him the primary receiver this year.900/7 isn't impressive on Branch, but on Watson it would be

 

[LHUCKS]

Watson will see increased targets and I project that to dip into the WR#2/TE#2 targets.   I believe Branch will still get his.

I read somewhere that NE has plans to not just increase Watson's role, but perhaps increase it enough to make him the primary receiver this year.900/7 isn't impressive on Branch, but on Watson it would be

Projecting those numbers is a bit of a leap of faith as he's never done it before...but signs are definitely pointing to a career year for Watson.

 

[Browns Rule!]

I agree that Delicious Jurevicius is underrated.  He's not the sexiest pick, but he runs good routes and has great hands.

He's also the best WR on the team until Edwards matures and is 100%. He should see quite a few targets this year.

One could argue Northcutt is better

Wow! No, northcutt is slot receiver type only, has questionable hands, and his route running isn't something to write home about

 

[LHUCKS]

I hope I'm wrong because we need him to step up!

How old is the kid...isn't he like 23 still? Give him some time.

 

[MLBrandow]

every time i read something about him that came out of 04 and 05 training camps, it was dissappointing.  he may well keep that starting job, but i'm in a wait-and-see mode on him.

Remember that Williams came in as an underclassman...he's still very young.

That's for sure. I think he is the most immature Jaguar. I'm here in Jax and Reggie Williams fans are hard to come by. He'll jump up and do a touchdown dance after a six yard catch on 3rd and eight from his own 35. Moron.From what I'm hearing here, the 1 and 2 spots are being handed to Jones and Williams on pure talent alone, with the staff hoping Jones is the stud. Leftwich has all the confidence in the world in Wilford on 3 receiver sets, but I haven't yet seen anywhere near the same comfort level with Williams. Williams has the talent, Wilford has the maturity...if only one of them had both. Maybe I'm biased because I hate the guy, but I don't see Williams as underrated as you do. Underrated, yes, but not a ton. I hope I'm wrong because we need him to step up!

I had forgotten he came out as an underclassman. That is a good sign much more than his dip in production indicates.If you consider that he was averaging 44.5 ypg as a sophomore (I didn't count the 6 games in the middle of the season where he didn't see the rock), that's pretty on par for 3rd year breakout WRs.

 

[AB in DC]

I agree that Delicious Jurevicius is underrated. He's not the sexiest pick, but he runs good routes and has great hands.

He's also the best WR on the team until Edwards matures and is 100%. He should see quite a few targets this year.

One could argue Northcutt is better

I like D. Northcutt as a posession WR(plus he went to my alma mater) but JJ is a TD threat which increases his upside quite a bit.

I like Northcutt at his ADP (not in top 230) better than Jurevicius at his (146).

 

[LHUCKS]

If you consider that he was averaging 44.5 ypg as a sophomore (I didn't count the 6 games in the middle of the season where he didn't see the rock), that's pretty on par for 3rd year breakout WRs.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Damn...I totally forgot to write up Koren Robinson.

Now I definitely have to write an addendum.

You're slipping. No wonder this is free content.

 

[ScottNorwood]

I agree that Delicious Jurevicius is underrated. He's not the sexiest pick, but he runs good routes and has great hands.

He's also the best WR on the team until Edwards matures and is 100%. He should see quite a few targets this year.

One could argue Northcutt is better

I like D. Northcutt as a posession WR(plus he went to my alma mater) but JJ is a TD threat which increases his upside quite a bit.

I like Northcutt at his ADP (not in top 230) better than Jurevicius at his (146).

I don't

 

[Musesboy]

LHUCKS, posts such as this are great starting points for debate. Well done on another interesting contribution.

I either agree with your comments, or at least respect why you have that view. Here are the points on which I differ:

Chad Johnson

I think Palmer will be ready. As I suspect Johnson would be rated considerably higher if you knew that to be a fact, it's not really up for debate. It's all part of your risk assessment strategy.

But what I would like to ask is this. You name five players that are less risky than Johnson. Fitzgerald and Boldin are two of them. Ignoring the addition of Edge and a possible change in the dynamic of the offense, I still see Warner as a potential weak link. I doubt that many of the staff or those that post on this board expect Warner to play 16 games. If he does go down, that brings in Navarre or Leinart. McCown was somewhat experienced in relief last year and has had over 20 career starts. Wouldn't you say that either of the backups this year represent more risk than Johnson possibly playing with Anthony Wright at the start of the season? At least Palmer should be back when you need him most, in the second half of the season and the fantasy playoffs. While Fitzgerald and Boldin would lose their starter earlier in the season and be playing with an inexperienced QB when you needed them the most.

Hines Ward

I agree with EBF here. I have Ward's targets considerably higher than in the last two years.

I see that you used the argument that Leftwich will continue to improve this year. Surely Roethlisberger with his YPA of nearly 9 can be expected to see increased action and improvement too? With Bettis and Randle El leaving, I see more passing attempts and an even bigger percentage of targets for Ward.

Andre Johnson

I am not extremely high on him, although I rank him a few spots higher than you. He did have eight games over 60 yards in 2004 when healthy, and two more within two yards of that mark. But what I want to ask is, do you think the addition of Moulds will help Johnson become a better receiver? Not just by drawing coverage, but by actually teaching Johnson a few things. After all, Johnson has never had the benefit of learning from an experienced veteran.

Again, I thought you did a great job.

 

[LHUCKS]

Chad Johnson

I think Palmer will be ready. As I suspect Johnson would be rated considerably higher if you knew that to be a fact, it's not really up for debate. It's all part of your risk assessment strategy.

Why do you think Palmer will be ready? I agree it's not really up for debate, either you see Palmer's situation as a risk or you don't. I'm just giving my opinion here and until I see Lewis state Palmer is starting week 1 Johnson will get dinged by me.

But what I would like to ask is this. You name five players that are less risky than Johnson. Fitzgerald and Boldin are two of them. Ignoring the addition of Edge and a possible change in the dynamic of the offense, I still see Warner as a potential weak link. I doubt that many of the staff or those that post on this board expect Warner to play 16 games. If he does go down, that brings in Navarre or Leinart. McCown was somewhat experienced in relief last year and has had over 20 career starts. Wouldn't you say that either of the backups this year represent more risk than Johnson possibly playing with Anthony Wright at the start of the season? At least Palmer should be back when you need him most, in the second half of the season and the fantasy playoffs. While Fitzgerald and Boldin would lose their starter earlier in the season and be playing with an inexperienced QB when you needed them the most.

I'm very high on Leinart and the local buzz in AZ is that Leinart will be an impact player sooner than later. I know this sounds crazy but I wouldn't be surprised to see Leinart succeed if Warner goes down. But there is a big difference between guessing that Warner will get injured and knowing for certain that Palmer is coming off major surgery.

In terms of your second half comments I agree that there is that risk, but remember these rankings are for year end totals, they are not player draft boards. My H2H rankings differ from my projection rankings in many instances. The AZ cards WRs definitley get dinged for QB risk in the 2nd half of the season, not much though.

Hines Ward

I agree with EBF here. I have Ward's targets considerably higher than in the last two years.

I see that you used the argument that Leftwich will continue to improve this year. Surely Roethlisberger with his YPA of nearly 9 can be expected to see increased action and improvement too? With Bettis and Randle El leaving, I see more passing attempts and an even bigger percentage of targets for Ward.

Yeah...it's just that I like several players I listed a bit more than Ward. I'm just not buying the increased passing offense argument that everybody is selling. It appears I'm in the minority on this one. Lets say he does get 10 more receptions...do you expect 11 TDs?? A modest increase in receptions would offset a TD decrease, thus I still see limited upside here.

Andre Johnson

I am not extremely high on him, although I rank him a few spots higher than you. He did have eight games over 60 yards in 2004 when healthy, and two more within two yards of that mark. But what I want to ask is, do you think the addition of Moulds will help Johnson become a better receiver? Not just by drawing coverage, but by actually teaching Johnson a few things. After all, Johnson has never had the benefit of learning from an experienced veteran.

Moulds will most likely help Johnson for the reasons you mentioned but I don't think that necessarily equates into numbers that justify his ADP. Expect Carr to struggle in his first season in a new offense. See Plummer's numbers in his first year...and Jake was more accomplished that year than Carr is this year.

Again, I thought you did a great job.

 

[Musesboy]

Why do you think Palmer will be ready? I agree it's not really up for debate, either you see Palmer's situation as a risk or you don't. I'm just giving my opinion here and until I see Lewis state Palmer is starting week 1 Johnson will get dinged by me.

I can only go by what I have read. I haven't seen Palmer in action since his injury. It's just that almost everything seems to be extremely positive. Cutting, dropping back, and looking good in workouts. The general optimism of the coaching staff and team. If I were drafting today, I would downgrade him slightly because of the risk. But hopefully that will all be cleared up if Palmer looks good in camp and in preseason action. He's not a QB that relies too much on his mobility anyway.Point taken on Leinart but I mentioned it as so few rookies look competent if they do see action in year one. I just wanted your take.I have Ward projected at 10 TDs. I have him projected for 91 receptions; much higher than over the last two years. He can be relied upon and Roethlisberger will look for him. Hopefully we will see 16 games from Roethlisberger and he will continue to develop his passing skills as he hinted at in the playoffs.Andre Johnson has always been overvalued since his promising rookie season.

 

[Q-Bert]

Chad Johnson

I think Palmer will be ready. As I suspect Johnson would be rated considerably higher if you knew that to be a fact, it's not really up for debate. It's all part of your risk assessment strategy.

Why do you think Palmer will be ready? I agree it's not really up for debate, either you see Palmer's situation as a risk or you don't. I'm just giving my opinion here and until I see Lewis state Palmer is starting week 1 Johnson will get dinged by me.

But what I would like to ask is this. You name five players that are less risky than Johnson. Fitzgerald and Boldin are two of them. Ignoring the addition of Edge and a possible change in the dynamic of the offense, I still see Warner as a potential weak link. I doubt that many of the staff or those that post on this board expect Warner to play 16 games. If he does go down, that brings in Navarre or Leinart. McCown was somewhat experienced in relief last year and has had over 20 career starts. Wouldn't you say that either of the backups this year represent more risk than Johnson possibly playing with Anthony Wright at the start of the season? At least Palmer should be back when you need him most, in the second half of the season and the fantasy playoffs. While Fitzgerald and Boldin would lose their starter earlier in the season and be playing with an inexperienced QB when you needed them the most.

I'm very high on Leinart and the local buzz in AZ is that Leinart will be an impact player sooner than later. I know this sounds crazy but I wouldn't be surprised to see Leinart succeed if Warner goes down. But there is a big difference between guessing that Warner will get injured and knowing for certain that Palmer is coming off major surgery.

In terms of your second half comments I agree that there is that risk, but remember these rankings are for year end totals, they are not player draft boards. My H2H rankings differ from my projection rankings in many instances. The AZ cards WRs definitley get dinged for QB risk in the 2nd half of the season, not much though.

Hines Ward

I agree with EBF here. I have Ward's targets considerably higher than in the last two years.

I see that you used the argument that Leftwich will continue to improve this year. Surely Roethlisberger with his YPA of nearly 9 can be expected to see increased action and improvement too? With Bettis and Randle El leaving, I see more passing attempts and an even bigger percentage of targets for Ward.

Yeah...it's just that I like several players I listed a bit more than Ward. I'm just not buying the increased passing offense argument that everybody is selling. It appears I'm in the minority on this one. Lets say he does get 10 more receptions...do you expect 11 TDs?? A modest increase in receptions would offset a TD decrease, thus I still see limited upside here.

Andre Johnson

I am not extremely high on him, although I rank him a few spots higher than you. He did have eight games over 60 yards in 2004 when healthy, and two more within two yards of that mark. But what I want to ask is, do you think the addition of Moulds will help Johnson become a better receiver? Not just by drawing coverage, but by actually teaching Johnson a few things. After all, Johnson has never had the benefit of learning from an experienced veteran.

Moulds will most likely help Johnson for the reasons you mentioned but I don't think that necessarily equates into numbers that justify his ADP. Expect Carr to struggle in his first season in a new offense. See Plummer's numbers in his first year...and Jake was more accomplished that year than Carr is this year.

Again, I thought you did a great job.

Now let’s look at Plummer’s first year in Kubiak’s offense:

CODE |---------- PASSING -----------||----- RUSHING -----| TOTAL

CMP ATT YD YPA TD INT ATT YD YPA TD YD

2003 280 478 3126 6.54 19 18 543 2629 4.84 20 5755

I would be surprised if Carr attains these stats as he’s less accomplished and less experienced than Plummer was in his first year at Denver. It’s more common for QBs to start slow with new offenses than it is for them to start fast. It follows that Kubiak's offense just may not lend itself to lofty WR totals in year one.

I think your overall analysis is pretty solid. I disagree with some and agree with others. However, you've mentioned Plummer's first year in Kubiak's offense several times and I think you are in error. You are actually quoting Denver's total offensive output for Plummer's first year. He only played in 11 games due to injury that year. Plummer played very well in that first year. His replacement did not. A 19 TD/18 Int ratio doesn't look very good. However, Plummer was actually 15/7.Not that I think it really impacts the validity of your argument that Andre Johnson is overrated. I agree with that point. I just think your reliance on Plummer's injury shortened first season in Denver is faulty.

 

[LHUCKS]

Not that I think it really impacts the validity of your argument that Andre Johnson is overrated. I agree with that point. I just think your reliance on Plummer's injury shortened first season in Denver is faulty.

I use it as more of a supporting argument. I use Denver's total offense that year to prove that it's more than possible that Carr puts up mediocre numbers, subsequently hampering Andre's upside.

 

[LHUCKS]

I have Ward projected at 10 TDs. I have him projected for 91 receptions; much higher than over the last two years. He can be relied upon and Roethlisberger will look for him. Hopefully we will see 16 games from Roethlisberger and he will continue to develop his passing skills as he hinted at in the playoffs.

wow...91 receptions and 10 TDs will put him in an elite group. Does that rank him in your 5-7 range?

 

[Mark Wimer]

3) Andre Johnson #16

A lot of owners got burned by Andre Johnson last year as they were undoubtedly enamored with his impressive athletic ability and potential opportunity as the #1 WR for the Texans. Unfortunately many didn’t consider that Carr and the offense in general could severely hamper Andre’s performance. Johnson consistently saw double and triple teams, not to mention bad pass after bad pass from David Carr. Further, Johnson suffered a number of injuries and just never quite got on track in ’05.

Here’s Johnson’s gamelog:

+----------+--------+-------------+----+| WK  OPP  |  RSHYD |  REC   YD   | TD |+----------+--------+-------------+----+|  1  buf  |     7  |    3    18  |  0 ||  2  pit  |     0  |    4    20  |  0 ||  4  cin  |     0  |    3    38  |  0 ||  5  ten  |     0  |    0     0  |  0 ||  9  jax  |     0  |    9    91  |  0 || 10  ind  |    -2  |    4    42  |  0 || 11  kan  |     5  |    6    50  |  0 || 12  ram  |     0  |   12   159  |  1 || 13  bal  |     0  |    4    70  |  0 || 14  ten  |     0  |    3    27  |  0 || 15  ari  |    -2  |    7    51  |  0 || 16  jax  |     2  |    7   119  |  1 || 17  sfo  |     0  |    1     3  |  0 |+----------+--------+-------------+----+|  TOTAL   |    10  |   63   688  |  2 |+----------+--------+-------------+----+I notice only four games with 60 yards. Let me repeat that. Johnson only had four games with 60 yards. Now let’s look at Plummer’s first year in Kubiak’s offense:

   |---------- PASSING -----------||----- RUSHING -----|  TOTAL      CMP  ATT   YD    YPA   TD INT  ATT   YD    YPA  TD     YD   2003 280  478  3126   6.54  19  18  543  2629  4.84  20   5755I would be surprised if Carr attains these stats as he’s less accomplished and less experienced than Plummer was in his first year at Denver. It’s more common for QBs to start slow with new offenses than it is for them to start fast. It follows that Kubiak's offense just may not lend itself to lofty WR totals in year one. I like Gary Kubiak and I think Eric Moulds will help alleviate some of the coverage on Johnson, but it’s a tremendous leap of faith to expect Johnson’s numbers to merit a #16 WR ranking when you have several other players that carry significantly less risk with comparable reward including the following: Burress, Branch, Mason, Kennison and Galloway.

Staff With Highest Ranking: Bloom and Lammey at #11

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Wimer at #29 and Tremblay at #26

LHUCKS Ranking: #25

Honorable Mentions: Wilford, Houshmandzadeh, Curtis, Keyshawn Johnson

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3) Joey Galloway #22

Much like Moss, Galloway blew away any projection for him as he finished fifth among WRs last year. Nobody was expecting that kind of year from him and quite frankly people still believe it was somewhat of a fluke as his consensus ranking is #22. But was it really a fluke? What has changed between this year and last year that will justify ranking Galloway a full 17 spots less than where he finished last year?

Same coach, check.

Same QB, check.

Same talent, check.

Same YPC in ’05 as career average, check.

Now lets consider some of the reasons people are projecting a down year for Galloway.

1) “He’s injury prone”

Not really. Galloway has averaged close to 14 games played over the span of his career. That number would be closer to 16 had it not been for a year where he missed 15 games.

2) “If Clayton returns to form it will eat into his targets”

Actually while Clayton had his surprise rookie year, Galloway over the last handful of games put up top 10 ppg numbers. Those ppg numbers are why I drafted him in nearly all of my leagues last year. It's possible Galloway just finally found his right fit in terms of offense and chemistry. If Clayton does bounce back I expect it to have a minimal impact on Galloway’s targets. Galloway proved he was a playmaker last year and Gruden is going to find ways to get his most explosive target the ball.

I can think of a few reasons why Galloway shouldn’t be ranked #5, but I can think of many more reasons why he should be ranked higher than #22.

Staff With Highest Ranking: Tremblay and Wimer at #11

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Pasquino at #32, Norton/Grant at #31

LHUCKS Ranking: #14

4) Eddie Kennison #27

In the history of fantasy football I don’t know that there’s been a more disrespected player than Eddie Kennison. The guy constantly produces top 20 numbers and is constantly ranked around 30 or higher. I could’ve told you Kennison was going to make my list of undervalued WRs before the consensus rankings came out. People don’t like him. I don’t know why…maybe it’s because he doesn’t have the vertical leap of Andre Johnson or the Superbowl Trophy like Hines Ward. For whatever reason the sharks are going to be able to draft Eddie at a desirable ADP and reap the rewards. Yes the more conservative Edwards is coming in, but Edwards has already expressed a “if it aint broke don’t fix it” mentality.

Let’s take a look at Coles’ most recent two years with Herm Edwards at the helm:

                +--------------------------+-------------------------+                 |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2002 nyj |  16 |     6     39    6.5    0 |    89   1264  14.2    5 || 2005 nyj |  16 |     0      0    0.0    0 |    73    845  11.6    5 |So if you’re concerned about Edwards effecting Eddie’s numbers you shouldn’t be. If Kennison comes even close to those reception totals he’s going to annihilate even my #19 ranking. Remember that Kennison finished as the 18th WR last year with only 68 receptions and 5 TDs. Those numbers can easily be improved upon and are not likely to dip.Once again, we’ve got proven reward with minimal risk.

Staff With Highest Ranking: David/Joe at #21 and Wimer/Tremblay at #22

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Norton at #40 and Baker at #35

LHUCKS Ranking: #19

Thanks for the positive feedback (and negative feedback) LHUCKS. I just wish I'd known you agreed with my opinion on Galloway before we did the survivor draft - you swiped him just before I was gonna pick him. sigh. good posting, as usual.