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Libya is imploding (1 Viewer)

SaintsInDome2006 said:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-36300525?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_breaking&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

- So. It looks like we are about to start a second proxy war in the mideast after Syria. Or a third if you count Yemen.
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Most of hinterland Libya is the Sahara. Does it mean much if they 'control' sand? 

Point being that there is neither anything to cobtrol nor anyone controlling ourside population centers. But it does make for a cleaner map

Eta: Are you referring to that bit around Sirte in the coastal map or the map showing the coastal map in relation to all of Libya

 
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beer 30 said:
SaintsInDome2006 said:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-36300525?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_breaking&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

- So. It looks like we are about to start a second proxy war in the mideast after Syria. Or a third if you count Yemen.
Click to expand...
Arming a group of radicals to fight another group of radicals is a time tested process that always, ALWAYS works out in the end. There are hundreds if not thousands of instances across history where this not only made a ton of sense but also provided a stable, well adjusted populace that showed favorably toward it's US benefactor. What could possibly go wrong?
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Crushed this one out of the park too :thumbup:  

 
msommer said:
Most of hinterland Libya is the Sahara. Does it mean much if they 'control' sand? 

Point being that there is neither anything to control nor anyone controlling outside population centers. But it does make for a cleaner map

Eta: Are you referring to that bit around Sirte in the coastal map or the map showing the coastal map in relation to all of Libya
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Well a country is technically territory, on sand or wherever. Granted the maps showing the partition and held territory is sometimes yes looking larger than reality seeing as how much of the lower part of the country is as you say unoccupied. But regardless a divided country is just that, a country in civil war and in chaos.

- However, are you relying to the post with the link from the BBC? I think I've/we've lost track of the comment here.

Last month, the Libyan government warned that IS could seize most of the country if it was not halted soon.
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So occupied or not, that was the BBC reporting.

Now we have "troops" in Libya.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
Well a country is technically territory, on sand or wherever. Granted the maps showing the partition and held territory is sometimes yes looking larger than reality seeing as how much of the lower part of the country is as you say unoccupied. But regardless a divided country is just that, a country in civil war and in chaos.

- However, are you relying to the post with the link from the BBC? I think I've/we've lost track of the comment here.

So occupied or not, that was the BBC reporting.

Now we have "troops" in Libya.
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That ISIS is holding territory around Sirte is a problem as are the other Salafist militias' holdings. Clearly it is also a problem that the central government is weak (and not only militarily). That ISIS puts a souped up Toyota with a machine gun in an oasis somewhere in the middle of a desert I'm not too worried about

 
msommer said:
That ISIS is holding territory around Sirte is a problem as are the other Salafist militias' holdings. Clearly it is also a problem that the central government is weak (and not only militarily). That ISIS puts a souped up Toyota with a machine gun in an oasis somewhere in the middle of a desert I'm not too worried about
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Here's a map from May.

I don't know what to tell you. We're at war with Isis, in Syria, Iraq, now Libya. They have a chunk of land in Libya, across the pond from Europe, which they have attacked. They've gained territory in Libya and I'm guessing for the poor souls under their shadow it doesn't really matter if they're pointing a machine gun in a Toyota truck or a Chevrolet.

eta - but yes, it's that central coast area around Sirte which they are controlling, and I'm sure the population centers are closest to the water, though I really don't know what's fully in that grey area they control.

 
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SaintsInDome2006 said:
Here's a map from May.

I don't know what to tell you. We're at war with Isis, in Syria, Iraq, now Libya. They have a chunk of land in Libya, across the pond from Europe, which they have attacked. They've gained territory in Libya and I'm guessing for the poor souls under their shadow it doesn't really matter if they're pointing a machine gun in a Toyota truck or a Chevrolet.

eta - but yes, it's that central coast area around Sirte which they are controlling, and I'm sure the population centers are closest to the water, though I really don't know what's fully in that grey area they control.
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Well, I shouldn't take out my frustration with the way people describe this type of situations out on you. 

Iraq is a good example

Two maps of ISIS controlled territory

Exhibit one

Exhibit two

The first one is more impressive, isn't it? But it is lazy reporting because the middle of the green area is empty. We are meant to go 'Wow, that's a lot" - but it really is just a color by numbers sketch that has been filled in

 
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msommer said:
Well, I shouldn't take out my frustration with the way people describe this type of situations out on you. 

Iraq is a good example

Two maps of ISIS controlled territory

Exhibit one

Exhibit two

The first one is more impressive, isn't it? But it is lazy reporting because the middle of the green area is empty. We are meant to go 'Wow, that's a lot" - but it really is just a color by numbers sketch that has been filled in
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I get it, I know what you mean and I understood it when you first posted it. Yes, the map looks "big" but in reality we are talking highways and roads, it's much less territory. Maybe the most relevant map to me are the ones at night where the lights have literally gone out for these poor people.

Militarily, ok, the actual territory is not great, but this territory is all that matters in a country like Syria or Libya.

I guess for me the more important issue is that it was September 2001 we were attacked - and by way George Bush we ended up at war in the mideast, but we are still there, and we are everywhere. Air war (7 nations?), troops on the ground (Afg, Syria, Iraq, now Libya...), disintegration of nations, it's still going on. I don't know, we now have troops in Libya, seems worth mentioning.

 
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SaintsInDome2006 said:
I get it, I know what you mean and I understood it when you first posted it. Yes, the map looks "big" but in reality we are talking highways and roads, it's much less territory. Maybe the most relevant map to me are the ones at night where the lights have literally gone out for these poor people.

Militarily, ok, the actual territory is not great, but this territory is all that matters in a country like Syria or Libya.

I guess for me the more important issue is that it was September 2001 we were attacked - and by way George Bush we ended up at war in the mideast, but we are still there, and we are everywhere. Air war, troops on the ground (Afg, Syria, Iraq, now Libya...), disintegration of nations, it's still going on. I don't know, we now have troops in Libya, seems worth mentioning.
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Personally I think the troops n Libya (at least Special Forces types) have been there for awhile

 
Rove! said:
Did Hillary kill a peace deal in Libya? Dr Kilari Anand Paul says so

http://www.usapoliticstoday.com/breaking-hillary-clinton-confirmed-in-helping-create-isis-see-her-backdoor-deal/
Click to expand...


What is Gospel to the Unreached Millions (GUM)?

Gospel to the Unreached Millions (GUM) is a ministry outgrowth of Dr. K.A. Paul. It provides
financial and other support to Christian missionary efforts, including evangelistic
crusades several times each year in strategic cities and countries throughout the 10/40
Window. This effort is concentrated primarily in the area between the 10th latitude north
and the 40th latitude north, from Spain to Japan. In addition, GUM operates International
Training Centers and Bible Schools, supports national church planters, evangelists, benevolent
ministries to widows and orphans and conducts prayer initiatives.

The Issues

• The Evangelical Council for Financial Accountability (ECFA) terminated the
membership of Gospel to the Unreached Millions for violations of ECFA Standard
number two. ECFA Standard number two is stated as: “Board of Directors and Audit
Committee: Every member organization shall be governed by a responsible board of
not less than five individuals, a majority of whom shall be independent, which shall
meet at least semi-annually to establish policy and review its accomplishments. The
board or a committee consisting of a majority of independent members shall review
the annual audit and maintain direct communication between the board and the independent
certified public accountants.” GUM had only one board meeting during 2004,
instead of the requirement of two and did not meet the standard.

• The ECFA first suspended GUM’s membership over a three month period while the
ECFA initiated a compliance review in order to determine GUM’s compliance with
ECFA Standards number two and four. ECFA standard number four is stated as:
“Use of Resources: Every member organization shall exercise management and financial
controls necessary to provide reasonable assurance that all resources are
used (nationally and internationally) in conformity with applicable federal and state
laws and regulations to accomplish the exempt purposes for which they are intended.”
• GUM did not provide follow-up detailed information concerning Standard number 4 to
the ECFA and had already been out of compliance with Standard number 2, thus the
ECFA terminated GUM’s membership.
 
Click to expand...

 
cstu said:
I'm glad we helped people seeking democracy to get rid of an evil dictator without putting boots on the ground. 

ISIS will be defeated and Libya will rebuild their country. 
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Simply stunning willful ignorance

are you ok with the racial genocide, the refugees the weapons that went to Boko Haram?  

Even Obama said that Libya was his worst mistake and is now a #### show.  They took a country with the highest standard of living in Africa into a war torn failed state...and for no reason.  Ghadafi was ready to step down.  

 
Rove! said:
Simply stunning willful ignorance

are you ok with the racial genocide, the refugees the weapons that went to Boko Haram?  

Even Obama said that Libya was his worst mistake and is now a #### show.  They took a country with the highest standard of living in Africa into a war torn failed state...and for no reason.  Ghadafi was ready to step down.  
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Gaddafi was not going to step down. :lmao:

It's awful what is going on there but I believe long-term Libya will be better off.

Obama said aiding the overthrow of Gaddafi was "the right thing to do" but the mistake was "failing to plan for the day after".

 
cstu said:
Gaddafi was not going to step down. :lmao:

It's awful what is going on there but I believe long-term Libya will be better off.

Obama said aiding the overthrow of Gaddafi was "the right thing to do" but the mistake was "failing to plan for the day after".
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Same sin as Bush Iraq. Bush had more than one, but that was one. 

 
Rove! said:
Simply stunning willful ignorance

are you ok with the racial genocide, the refugees the weapons that went to Boko Haram?  

Even Obama said that Libya was his worst mistake and is now a #### show.  They took a country with the highest standard of living in Africa into a war torn failed state...and for no reason.  Ghadafi was ready to step down.  
Click to expand...
I don't believe anything he posts.  No one is that dumb

 
This should be one of the primary topics of the debate, but unfortunately Trump saying P____ appears to be more important.

 
cstu said:
Agree, but unlike Iraq the aftermath of the war wasn't ours to fight.  We helped them get the keys to the democracy car but we can't make them great drivers.
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Going around blowing up governments and then bailing is grossly irresponsible.  If we can't be bothered with the aftermath then we shouldn't be involved at all.

 
jonessed said:
Going around blowing up governments and then bailing is grossly irresponsible.  If we can't be bothered with the aftermath then we shouldn't be involved at all.
Click to expand...
If the Make A Wish Foundation can't cure cancer then they shouldn't be involved at all.

 
Rove! said:
 Ghadafi was ready to step down.  
Click to expand...
The report that Ghadafi was ready to step down was made long after the NATO intervention.  The rebels, bolstered by NATO air support, were closing in on Tripoli at the time.   It's extremely stupid to cite it as a reason against NATO intervention.  

 
cstu said:
jonessed said:
Going around blowing up governments and then bailing is grossly irresponsible.  If we can't be bothered with the aftermath then we shouldn't be involved at all.
Click to expand...
If the Make A Wish Foundation can't cure cancer then they shouldn't be involved at all.
Click to expand...
Your analogy is way off, but I suspect you know this.

To use your analogy, the doctor's gone in and sorta cleaned up the cancer and left the person laying open on the table waiting for another doctor to come in and sew the person up.

 
Working with a small cadre of loyalists — including a former South African commando, a former Australian air force pilot, and a lawyer with dual citizenship in the U.S. and Israel — Prince sought to secretly rebuild his private CIA and special operations enterprise by setting up foreign shell companies and offering paramilitary services, according to documents reviewed by The Intercept and interviews with several people familiar with Prince’s business proposals.

Several of the proposals for private security services in African nations examined by The Intercept contained metadata in the digital files showing Prince and his inner circle editing and revising various drafts.

Since 2014, Prince has traveled to at least half a dozen countries to offer various versions of a private military force, secretly meeting with a string of African officials. Among the countries where Prince pitched a plan to deploy paramilitary assets is Libya, which is currently subject to an array of U.S. and United Nations financial and defense restrictions.

Prince engaged in these activities over the objections of his own firm’s corporate leadership. Several FSG colleagues accused him of using his role as chairman to offer Blackwater-like services to foreign governments that could not have been provided by the company, which lacks the capacity, expertise, or even the legal authority to do so.

...

Prince developed the paramilitary services proposal for Libyan officials in 2013, before FSG was created, according to documents and two people familiar with the pitch. He made several trips to Libya to meet with government officials there.

The Libyan proposal, reviewed by The Intercept, was code-named Operation Lima. It offered the Libyans an array of military equipment and services — including weaponized vehicles, helicopters, boats, and surveillance airplanes — to help stabilize eastern Libya. The ground force, according to a person involved with the plan, would consist of a troop of former Australian special operations commandos. Given the instability of the government and Prince’s inability to navigate complex Libyan factions to vet potential partners, he had trouble finding the right power brokers to help sell the proposal.

...

By May 2015, Prince had rebranded himself and claimed a legitimate public reputation as FSG’s chairman. Without the approval of FSG’s management, he returned to Libya offering a freshly repackaged proposal, according to a person involved with the plan. Rather than a counterinsurgency force, Prince proposed a similar set of equipment and services, but with a new justification: The mercenaries would be there to engage in border security.

According to an internal slide presentation, Prince’s private force would operate in Libya for the stated purpose of stopping the flow of refugees to Europe. Libya is one of the main routes for migrants trying to enter Europe from eastern Africa and parts of the central Sahel region.

Prince told colleagues that he received preliminary approval for the border force from a senior Libyan official, but would need to secure European support to loosen up restrictions on Libyan money and weapons, which would otherwise impede the plan, according to a person who discussed the proposal with Prince.

By exploiting European fears of a mass exodus from the Middle East and North Africa, Prince believed he could obtain political buy-in from Europe to bring a foreign force into Libya.

... Prince’s May 2015 proposal for the Libya operations suggested, “Funding can be jointly shared by the EU and Libyan government from Libyan Investment Authority money frozen in European Banks.”

However, according to two people involved in the proposal, Prince grew frustrated with the failure to get European help in releasing the frozen Libyan funds, and began looking for other ways to get his border force funded.

By then, the U.S. government was already investigating Prince for possible weapons deals in Africa, according to the former senior U.S. intelligence official and the former intelligence official briefed on the matter. In the course of the surveillance operation for that investigation, U.S. intercepts revealed Prince appearing to discuss efforts to open bank accounts in China to help his Libyan associates.

“Money laundering for Libyan officials using a Chinese bank — that is the issue that pushed it over the edge” for the Justice Department, said the second former intelligence official.

The U.S. spies monitoring Prince soon discovered that he had traveled to the Chinese-controlled peninsula of Macau in an effort to open a bank account, according to two people familiar with the investigation. A well-connected source within the Macau banking community told The Intercept that Prince first attempted to open an account at the Macau branch of a European-connected bank, but was denied after a review by the bank’s European headquarters.

Later, Prince traveled to Beijing, where he met with Chinese agents from the Ministry of State Security, according to the second former intelligence official and a source familiar with the meeting.

In January, Prince returned to Macau and opened an account at the Bank of China, according to several sources, including the second former intelligence official and the source with close connections to Macau’s banking community.

...

While Prince’s re-invented Libya “border security” proposal was framed as a means of stopping migration, sources with knowledge of Prince’s business strategy allege that he had greater ambitions in that country. One person involved in Prince’s plan said the anti-migration force was seen as a vehicle for Prince to build a “backdoor” for so-called kinetic, or lethal, operations in Libya — a form of mercenary mission-creep. “During the day, you do interdiction of migrants — not kinetic,” said the person involved in the plan. “But those routes are used by weapons smugglers and drug traffickers at night. Insurgents too. Erik’s guys can then be offered to the Libyans to help with their other problems. That’s how you get kinetic.”

The plan called for a series of “border security” bases housing intelligence centers, helicopters, surveillance airplanes, and weaponized vehicles. Prince proposed a fully equipped, contemporary military force to be staffed in part by foreign mercenaries.

“This is Erik Prince using the refugee crisis in Europe in an effort to put mercenaries on the ground in Libya,” said Malcolm Nance, a former U.S. Naval officer who trained special operations forces and has extensive experience in Libya since the fall of Qaddafi. “They think they’re going to solve the migration problem with technology and a bunch of Western mercenaries?” Nance, who reviewed a copy of Prince’s plan provided by The Intercept, called the proposal “fantasy baseball.”

...

Prince has run up against ITAR in the past. In 2010, Prince sold most of his equity in the companies that fell under the Blackwater umbrella. Claiming that left-wing activists, Democratic politicians, and lawsuits had destroyed his companies, he left the United States and became a resident of Abu Dhabi. The remnant of his network was renamed Academi LLC. Federal prosecutors eventually attempted to prosecute Prince’s former companies, culminating in a 2012 deferred prosecution agreement to settle a lengthy list of U.S. legal and regulatory violations committed from 2005 through 2008 when Prince was in charge, including ITAR violations.

A senior official involved with the Blackwater-related litigation, who has since left the government, told The Intercept that the Obama administration’s continued willingness to award contracts to former Blackwater entities while the case was active was a fatal impediment to a successful prosecution. The official, comparing the former Blackwater empire to a drug syndicate, added that prosecutors could not get anyone under Prince to testify against him personally. “This is very much the concern,” the former official told The Intercept. “You push the buttons on the company, but the main bad guy gets away and does it again.”

No criminal charges were filed against Prince.

...
Click to expand...
https://theintercept.com/2016/03/24/blackwater-founder-erik-prince-under-federal-investigation/

- Originally posted in the Trump thread.

- This is a pretty remarkable story about profiteering off the chaos in Libya and how it works.

- This also sounds very similar to the details of Osprey Global & Constellations Group, which was similarly created out of Blackwater.

(More here on that last point).

 
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Fascinating stuff Saints and just goes to show how very little the general public know about any of this stuff.

 
"Warnings of a ‘Powder Keg’ in Libya as ISIS Regroups"

After B-2 bombers struck an Islamic State training camp in Libya in January, killing more than 80 militants, American officials privately gloated. On the heels of losing its coastal stronghold in Surt the month before, the Islamic State seemed to be reeling.

But Western and African counterterrorism officials now say that while the twin blows dealt a setback to the terrorist group in Libya — once feared as the Islamic State’s most lethal branch outside Iraq and Syria — its leaders are already regrouping, exploiting the chaos and political vacuum gripping the country.

Gen. Thomas D. Waldhauser, head of the Pentagon’s Africa Command, told a Senate panel this month that after their expulsion from Surt, many militants from the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, were moving to southern Libya.

“The instability in Libya and North Africa may be the most significant near-term threat to U.S. and allies’ interests on the continent,” General Waldhauser said. “Even with the success of Surt, ISIS-Libya remains a regional threat with intent to target U.S. persons and interests.”

Libya remains a violent and divided nation rife with independent militias, flooded with arms and lacking legitimate governance and political unity. Tripoli, the capital, is controlled by a patchwork of armed groups that have built local fiefs and vied for power since Libya’s 2011 uprising. Running gun battles have seized Tripoli in recent days.

“Libya is descending into chaos,” said Brig. Gen. Zakaria Ngobongue), a senior Chadian officer who directed a major counterterrorism exercise here in the Chadian capital last week involving 2,000 African and Western troops and trainers. “It’s a powder keg.”

Libya’s neighbors have rushed to ward off the threat of Islamic fighters seeking safe haven within their borders or trying to recruit their young people to fill its depleted ranks.

Tunisia, which has suffered several devastating terrorist attacks in recent years, has already built a 125-mile earthen wall, which stretches about half the length of its border with Libya, in an attempt to prevent militants from infiltrating.

Since last summer, the United States has been flying unarmed surveillance drone missions over Libya from bases in Tunisia, a significant expansion of that country’s counterterrorism cooperation with the Pentagon.

Algeria announced this month that it had opened a new air base in the country’s far south to help secure its borders with Mali, Niger and Libya.

And Chad closed its borders with Libya in January, fearing potential terrorist infiltration. The country reopened one main border crossing this month under pressure from border towns suffering a dearth of commercial traffic and to allow Chadian citizens to return home from Libya.

“As long as the Libyan chaos lasts, security in the Sahel and the Sahara will always be strained,” President Idriss Déby of Chad told a regional security conference in Bamako, Mali, this month. The Sahel is a vast area on the southern flank of the Sahara that stretches from Senegal east to Chad.

American intelligence agencies offered wide-ranging estimates last year on the peak number of Islamic State fighters in Libya — mainly in Surt, but also in Benghazi and Tripoli — with some assessments topping 5,000 militants.

Perhaps several hundred of those fighters have survived and fled in various directions within the country, or even to Europe, military officials and intelligence analysts say.

“The multiple militias and fractured relationship between factions in east and west Libya exacerbate the security situation, spilling into Tunisia and Egypt and the broader Maghreb, allowing the movement of foreign fighters, enabling the flow of migrants out of Libya to Europe and elsewhere,” General Waldhauser said.

Even before President Trump took office, vowing to intensify the global fight against ISIS, the Pentagon was accelerating its counterrorism efforts here in Central Africa.

The United States is building a $50 million drone base in Agadez, Niger. When completed next year, it will allow Reaper surveillance drones to fly from hundreds of miles closer to southern Libya, to monitor Islamic State insurgents flowing south and other extremists flowing north from the Sahel region.

American Special Operations forces and the C.I.A. have been working for more than a year to identify militia fighters in Libya who the United States can trust and support as a ground force to combat ISIS fighters, as the Pentagon did last year with militias from Misrata.

“We must carefully choose where and with whom we work with to counter ISIS-Libya in order not to shift the balance between factions and risk sparking greater conflict in Libya,” General Waldhauser said.

In the meantime, American spy agencies, as well as Western and African intelligence operatives, are monitoring the movements of ISIS fighters, who officials say have been wary of gathering in large groups since the January strike by B-2s and armed Reaper drones flying from Sicily. American commanders say they could conduct more strikes if insurgents mass in large enough groups.

“We will be able to keep pressure on that ISIS network enough to keep it decentralized so that it cannot mass and to buy time for the G.N.A. to develop governance,” said Brig. Gen. Donald C. Bolduc, who oversees American Special Operations forces in Africa, using an acronym for the new Libyan unity government.

General Bolduc acknowledged in an interview, however, “None of this is going to happen fast.” He noted that the Islamic State in Libya is “looking to work gaps and seams, and doing it all over again to gain a foothold, influencing the populace.”

It is an assessment shared by independent Libya specialists.

“ISIS in Libya is down but not out, and in the meantime, all of Libya’s other problems remain, which ensures that ISIS or something a lot like it will have little problem reasserting itself when the time is right,” said Michael R. Shurkin, a senior political scientist at RAND and a former C.I.A. analyst. “Be wary of any U.S. policy that amounts to calling it a victory and walking away.”
Click to expand...

 
"What Americans Need to Know if Russia Intervenes in Libya's Civil War"

Indications that Russia could intervene militarily in Libya's messy civil war are growing. If it does, the Trump White House will face a tangle of unpleasant choices with far-reaching consequences. Will the new U.S. administration acquiesce to Russia's strongman vision for the region, or push back against Russia's growing influence there?

For months, the Kremlin has sought to draw Libya's eastern potentate General Khalifa Hiftar into its orbit. Hiftar is currently the de facto leader of a bloc of eastern Libyan forces that oppose Libya's internationally recognized government in Tripoli, the so-called Government of National Accord. Negotiations between the two sides are going nowhere and rumors of a potential Hiftar offensive against the Tripoli government have been swirling for months.

Hiftar has been to Moscow and paid a visit to the Russian aircraft carrier Kuznetsov in the Mediterranean, during which he held a video call with Russian Defense Minister Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Then, last week, Moscow reportedly deployed troops to a base on Egypt's northern coast just 60 miles from the border crossing with Libya.

There are a few ways to interpret their latest move: It could just be posturing, part of a Russian hybrid warfare strategy aimed at influencing ongoing negotiations over Libya's future. But there are plenty of reasons to believe it may be the early phase of a Russian intervention.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is eager to underscore the challenges that U.S. pro-democracy interventions in the Middle East have faced and offer up an alternative Russian strategy that relies on authoritarian leaders that look a lot like Putin himself. The 2011 NATO intervention in Libya has long been a target of Kremlin criticism and the chance to portray Russia as Libya's savior—as Russia has attempted to do in Syria—must be more than a little tempting for the Russian president.

Closer ties to Libya would also offer Russia the chance to extend its reach further along the Mediterranean's southern littoral—i.e., NATO's southern flank. Russia could, for example, seek to deploy advanced anti-access, area-denial systems along the Libyan coast, significantly enlarging the anti-access bubble that it has already established in the Eastern Mediterranean with similar deployments in Syria—a bubble that was already raising significant concern with top U.S. military commanders a year ago.

Influence over Libya meanwhile offers Russia leverage over Europe when it comes to the challenge posed by the increasingly deadly central Mediterranean migration route, which begins in Libya.

Libya's high-quality crude is yet another reason for Moscow to throw its weight behind Hiftar. The Kremlin is fixated on the coming global competition for natural resources and the Russian oil and gas company, Rosneft, just signed a new agreement with Libya's National Oil Corporation in February. Despite a few recent setbacks, Hiftar controls a significant amount of Libya's oil infrastructure in the east and has influence over some western fields as well.

A Russian move into Libya would put the Trump team in an extremely tough spot. The U.S. has invested time and energy in supporting the Tripoli government. Moreover, U.S. and allied special forces worked with Libyan militias aligned with Tripoli in a successful counterterrorism operation that ousted the Islamic State from the town of Sirte last year. Russian dominance in Libya could lead Italy to scuttle the sanctions regime the United States and European Union imposed on Russia on account of its annexation of Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine in 2014. A deeper Russian anti-access, area-denial pocket would meanwhile be a challenge for U.S. military operations in the region.

If Moscow backs a Hiftar move on Tripoli, would the U.S. step aside and let its Libyan partners get crushed by a Russian-backed force? Or would it try to take action—potentially even militarily—to slow Hiftar down and give these allies a fighting chance of avoiding calamity?

It's not an easy choice.

Supporting the government in Tripoli would require at least some U.S. boots on the ground. A large U.S. deployment might deter a Russian intervention, but would likely meet very strong resistance within the U.S. A small-scale intervention would be more feasible, but even if U.S. advisors operated far from the front lines they would still be at risk should Russian warplanes support a Hiftar advance—as they have for forces loyal to the regime of Bashar Assad in Syria.

Moreover, overt action against a Russian ally would kill the broader U.S.-Russian reset that the White House still seems to want. True, the Trump administration has sent conflicting signals about its views on Russia, with some senior officials evincing near sympathy for Putin, while others clearly harbor deep suspicion. Nevertheless, going toe-to-toe with Russia in Libya would clearly put an end to the Putin-Trump attempt at reconciliation.

The risk, then, is that the U.S. and its allies would end up largely on the sidelines as Russia installs another strongman in the region, and extends its power along NATO's southern flank. This would be a tragic outcome to the story that began with such high hopes in 2011 and another boost to Putin's prestige.
Click to expand...

 
Well I think this just reinforces how the Russians profit off the refugee and war crisis, lots of leverage there. Putin is serious about his effort to divide and neutralize the west and the regugee crisis is the major wedge for him.

 
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