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Link between credit card debt and Trump voters. (1 Viewer)

E

eoMMan

Footballguy
https://money.yahoo.com/states-struggling-with-highest-credit-card-debt-trumps-south-155836895.html

Nine out of the top 10 states with the highest credit card debt burden in the nation share two things in common: they’re in the South and they voted for Donald Trump in 2016. 

The correlation between having voted for Trump and facing the country’s highest credit card debt burden extends to 22 of the top 25 states with the highest debt burdens, according to CreditCards.com.

By contrast, 17 out of the top 25 states with the lowest credit card debt burden voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, including Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and California.

CreditCards.com industry analyst Ted Rossman points to economic conditions in the South as a leading factor as to why that region of the country is seeing higher levels of debt.

“I think that really illustrates a lot of what we saw in the last election [in terms of] why [Trump’s] message appealed to a lot of people in these Midwestern mostly and Southern states,” says Rossman. “These are places where incomes, generally speaking, are lower, unemployment rates are generally higher. These are the kind of people that have been left behind by the economic recovery... It cuts across geographic lines.”

During Trump’s administration, personal income in the South has grown by 1.7% a year, trailing Clinton-voting Northeastern states, where income grew by 2% over the same period. And in 2018, personal income in Southern states was lower than the rest of the country. The average income in Texas was $49,161; $45,834 in North Carolina; and $37,994 in Mississippi, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The unemployment rates of southern states with the highest credit card debt are also higher than the national 3.6% rate – except for Arkansas which has a 3.5% unemployment rate. The rate for Louisiana was 4.5% in October; West Virginia 4.8%; and Mississippi 5.5%.

New Mexico has the highest debt burden, according to Creditcards.com. Total credit card balances for a typical resident and median annual household income were factored in to determine how many months it would take someone in that state to pay off the debt with an average APR of 21.10%.

Using the recommended strategy of setting aside 15% of earnings to pay off debt, it would take a typical New Mexico resident earning $47,169 annually 17 months to pay off a $8,356 credit card balance. The total interest paid would be $1,339.

While New Mexico was a blue state in 2016, the next nine out of the top 10 states with the most credit debt debt went for Trump, including Louisiana, West Virginia, Arkansas, and Mississippi. Louisiana has a total credit card balance of $8,364 with a median annual household income of $47,905. Arkansas’ credit card balance was $7,906, with a median annual household income of $47,062. 

Trump reelection chances

Record low unemployment and a record breaking stock market have some feeling confident that Trump will get reelected in 2020. Though Trump’s national job approval rating hovers below 50%, support in key swing states gives him a better than 50% chance of winning more electoral college votes than he did back in 2016, according to Eurasia Group analysis.

With impeachment likely in the House, Trump’s reelection is to a large degree contingent on the state of the economy. There are signs pointing to an economic slowdown, with GDP growth falling from 3.1% in the first quarter to 2.1% in the third quarter.

“Generally speaking if you look at a strong economy, the incumbent usually wins, but this isn’t a traditional time. There’s a lot of polarization,” Rossman says. “This president’s approval rating is much lower than you would typically see for someone presiding over the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years.”
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Thoughts?  Does this mean anything?  

 
Juxtatarot said:
Next show mortgage debt and you'll see the opposite.
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Mortgage debt >>> than credit card debt, right? I am no financial wizard, but to me, owing 200K on a house that is worth at least that much is better than owing 20K on a TV/car/living room set/grocery bill/etc.

 
Would be more interested to see the actual voting records of individuals tied to their debt levels.

 
Yeah......to me, this doesn't really say "Trump voters are bad at money management" as much as it says "Trump voters tend to have lower income".

 
[scooter] said:
Yeah......to me, this doesn't really say "Trump voters are bad at money management" as much as it says "Trump voters tend to have lower income".
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It doesn't say anything very clearly.  It shows a hazy correlation between two things.

It could be that all the non-Trump voters in these states held all the debt, yet the conclusion reached would imply that because Trump won the state, and the state has high levels of debt, that the high levels of debt somehow apply to Trump voters.

 
[scooter] said:
Yeah......to me, this doesn't really say "Trump voters are bad at money management" as much as it says "Trump voters tend to have lower income".
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Wouldn't some of the people with the highest credit card debt be people with high incomes?  I could maybe see saying their income-to-debt ratio is low but not sure it follows they have lower income. 

 
IC FBGCav said:
Of course, wages have been stagnant for decades while prices go up.  How do you think people are getting by?
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Real wages are - wages when compared to prices.  Which means as prices have gone up, so have wages, but not substantially outpacing prices.  Current dollar wages have gone up substantially for decades.

 
Henry Ford said:
If they pay it off monthly, it's not counted as debt, correct?
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If you follow the links in the article, it looks like they are getting the data from Experian.  I'm sure Experian is using their own credit bureau data.  Usually credit card companies report balance data once a month of whatever the balance is at that time.  So, I suspect it would be included regardless.  It's possible they are further manipulating the data somehow but I doubt it.

 
Juxtatarot said:
If you follow the links in the article, it looks like they are getting the data from Experian.  I'm sure Experian is using their own credit bureau data.  Usually credit card companies report balance data once a month of whatever the balance is at that time.  So, I suspect it would be included regardless.  It's possible they are further manipulating the data somehow but I doubt it.
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My understanding is that Experian does not include credit card balances that are paid off monthly.  Those are not reported as revolving balances.

Edit: Generally, "this month's balance" and "balance" are two totally different numbers.  Perhaps I'm mistaken, but that's definitely how it used to be.

 
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IC FBGCav said:
The people being ignored want change?  :shrug:
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I think that's a fair conclusion.

They were ignored in 2016, they wanted change, they voted for Trump.

Now, 3 years later, they are in the same economic position that they were in 2016.

They still want change, right?

 
[scooter] said:
I think that's a fair conclusion.

They were ignored in 2016, they wanted change, they voted for Trump.

Now, 3 years later, they are in the same economic position that they were in 2016.

They still want change, right?
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Yep, just like after 8 years with Mr Hope with no dreams.

 
IC FBGCav said:
This is good to you?
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Your statement is that wages have been stagnant and prices have gone up.  What's actually happened is that wages and prices have both gone up at about the same rate (actually, prices have gone up slightly less.)  This is better to me than that statement, which is not true.

 
Henry Ford said:
My understanding is that Experian does not include credit card balances that are paid off monthly.  Those are not reported as revolving balances.

Edit: Generally, "this month's balance" and "balance" are two totally different numbers.  Perhaps I'm mistaken, but that's definitely how it used to be.
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Dear SAL,

Lenders typically update account information once a month. The length of time it will take for the zero balance to appear will depend on how close the payment is made to the reporting date.

If you make the payment right after information has been updated, it could be 30 days or more before the balance is reported. If you make the payment just before the reporting date it could be just a short time before the update is made.

Credit Card Balance May Not Show Zero Even If You Pay In Full Every Month

However, the amount reported to Experian is the balance on your billing statement. To be certain that a zero balance appears in your credit report you must pay off any existing balance and then not make any charges for a full billing cycle. That will ensure that the lender's records show a zero balance and that the zero balance is subsequently reported to Experian.

Thanks for asking.
- The "Ask Experian" team
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https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-experian/how-long-it-takes-for-0-balance-to-show-in-your-report/

 
Henry Ford said:
Your statement is that wages have been stagnant and prices have gone up.  What's actually happened is that wages and prices have both gone up at about the same rate (actually, prices have gone up slightly less.)  This is better to me than that statement, which is not true.
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Here's a true statement, I was born in 1970, final of 4 kids.  My dad as a postman could raise a family of 6 like he did back then.  

Healthcare has skyrocketed over wages.

 
IC FBGCav said:
Here's a true statement, I was born in 1970, final of 4 kids.  My dad as a postman could raise a family of 6 like he did back then.  

Healthcare has skyrocketed over wages.
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That is absolutely true.  Healthcare costs have risen about 1.5x as fast as most inflation.

It's also true that people feel they need more things than they did then.  Lots more.  I would venture to say that your dad raising a family of 6 didn't have a lot of the things you have now.  Computers, cell phones, cable, wifi, etc. all raise the standard of living but also the cost of living.

 
Juxtatarot said:
I get nervous whenever things like this come up.  "Uh-oh....something else I'm responsible for a work that I might be doing wrong!"
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Credit score are a fraud as an economic statistic I believe.  Doesn't not using your credit negatively impact your score?  Terrible grammar there.

 
Henry Ford said:
That is absolutely true.  Healthcare costs have risen about 1.5x as fast as most inflation.

It's also true that people feel they need more things than they did then.  Lots more.  I would venture to say that your dad raising a family of 6 didn't have a lot of the things you have now.  Computers, cell phones, cable, wifi, etc. all raise the standard of living but also the cost of living.
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There has to be some truth to the need thing.

Edit:  Just thinking a second about it there are many more monthly reoccurring bills.

 
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IC FBGCav said:
There has to be some truth to the need thing.
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There is some, depending on your meaning.  If you want your kids to have the best chance at a better life than you have, absolutely. Which I think everyone wants for their kids.

But there were things our parents could have gotten/done/etc for us if they really wanted us to have the best chance at a better life than they had, too.  I would imagine your dad didn't exactly rush out to buy an Apple II for $1300. 

That wasn't always how the boomers rolled.  Isn't always how current parents roll, either.

 
Henry Ford said:
There is some, depending on your meaning.  If you want your kids to have the best chance at a better life than you have, absolutely. Which I think everyone wants for their kids.

But there were things our parents could have gotten/done/etc for us if they really wanted us to have the best chance at a better life than they had, too.  I would imagine your dad didn't exactly rush out to buy an Apple II for $1300. 

That wasn't always how the boomers rolled.  Isn't always how current parents roll, either.
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I was always pissed I didn't have encyclopedias but I did get Atari 2600, lol.

 
IC FBGCav said:
I was always pissed I didn't have encyclopedias but I did get Atari 2600, lol.
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And now, for $100 used, you can get a device you can carry in your pocket that puts both encyclopedias and the Atari 2600 to shame and makes the home phone line obsolete.  If you have internet access.

 
IC FBGCav said:
Credit score are a fraud as an economic statistic I believe.  Doesn't not using your credit negatively impact your score?  Terrible grammar there.
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A credit score is a statistical model designed to measure the likelihood of an event -- typically a severe delinquency on a loan.  It's far from perfect but without question a random group of people with a high credit scores will perform better on average than a random group of people with low credit scores.  There are valid criticisms (in my opinion) on how credit scores can treat people with less access to credit and I am open to laws being passed that could help that.

You have to have credit to have a credit score.  However, you can have as little as one account and have an excellent credit score if you manage it correctly. 

 
Henry Ford said:
That is absolutely true.  Healthcare costs have risen about 1.5x as fast as most inflation.

It's also true that people feel they need more things than they did then.  Lots more.  I would venture to say that your dad raising a family of 6 didn't have a lot of the things you have now.  Computers, cell phones, cable, wifi, etc. all raise the standard of living but also the cost of living.
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Back in the day, it was just rent/mortgage, utilities, clothing, groceries, insurance, car expenses, baseball cards, and Falstaff.

ETA: And a viola.

 
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Mister CIA said:
Back in the day, it was just rent/mortgage, utilities, clothing, groceries, insurance, car expenses, baseball cards, and Falstaff.
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I can remember my 100 dollars for school clothes went far until Jordashe Jean's were a thing.  I was stocked with plain pockets.

 
IC FBGCav said:
I can remember my 100 dollars for school clothes went far until Jordashe Jean's were a thing.  I was stocked with plain pockets.
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As a fellow 1970 newborn, I reject Jordache jeans being a thing.  If you said Ocean Pacific, Bugle Boys, or Jams, I would agree.

 
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