LionsFan78's Defensive Rankings - My Complete List (1 Viewer)

[LionsFan78]

If you'd like a better looking Word Doc format, PM me your email address and I'll send you one. UPDATE 8/24 - Keep in mind, I have not updated these since late July. Please take that into consideration! Enjoy.

FBG's

Here's a little something I've been putting together, for my own benefit up until now. I thought I'd share with the forum. I'll try to put out hopefully 1-2 per day, so I'll post and update them as I go. Keep in mind, my rankings might change as I look further into a team, so it'll take even longer to put out the next one. I'm starting with my #32 ranked defense for 2007, heading all the way up to #1.

My complete list.

Tier 1

1. Chicago Bears (page 2)

2. San Diego Chargers (page 2)

3. Baltimore Ravens (page 2)

4. New England Patriots (page 2)

5. Miami Dolphins (page 2)

Tier 2

6. Denver Broncos (page 2)

7. Minnesota Vikings (page 2)

8. Jacksonville Jaguars (page 2)

9. Dallas Cowboys (page 2)

10. Pittsburgh Steelers (page 2)

11. Philadelphia Eagles (page 2)

12. Carolina Panthers (page 2)

13. Cincinnati Bengals (page 2)

14. Oakland Raiders (page 2)

Tier 3

15. Kansas City Chiefs

16. Indianapolis Colts

17. New York Jets

18. New Orleans Saints

19. Buffalo Bills

20. Seattle Seahawks

21. Green Bay Packers

22. New York Giants

23. Atlanta Falcons

24. Tampa Bay Bucs

25. Arizona Cardinals

Tier 4

26. San Francisco 49ers

27. Washington Redskins

28. Cleveland Browns

29. St. Louis Rams

30. Tennessee Titans

31. Detroit Lions

32. Houston Texans

Tier Descriptions:

Tier 1 - Must-start defense in nearly all matchups. Should be a shoe-in, unless certain matchups provide a no-brainer alternative.

Tier 2 - Startable defense in the majority of matchups, and a highly ranked fantasy playoff schedule. Any one of these teams has the talent to bump up a tier.

Tier 3 - A marginal DEF1 with upside. Either a solid sleeper team, a highly ranked combo defense, or a near-perfect playoff combo. Or a combination of all 3.

Tier 4 - The bottom dwellers. Unstartable in most matchups, and a poor consideration as a combo/sleeper defense. Also a risky decision during fantasy playoffs.

Please discuss, critique, etc. as much as you like.

Here goes...

NOTE: All rankings are based on a fantasy playoff schedule of weeks 14 - 16. If you include week 17, please adjust accordingly.

32. Houston Texans

2006 Fantasy Finish: t-30th

Defensive Losses: NT Seth Payne, LB Antwan Peek, CB Lewis Sanders

Defensive Additions: LB Shawn Barber, DT Jeff Zgonina, LB Danny Clark, CB Jamar Fletcher

Rookies: DT Amobi Okoye, CB Fred Bennett, SS Brandon Harrison, LB Zach Diles

Notes: Shawn Barber should add some good competition along side standout DROY Demeco Ryans. The front seven has been addressed perfectly during the previous few drafts, I expect them to be very solid for years, especially in the 4-3 defense Houston runs. My gut feeling has me pencilling in Mario Williams for 10+ sacks this year. He started off slow but still finished 2nd on the team in sacks (with a measly 4.5, but still). Dunta Robinson is a fine CB, but needs to improve on his only 2 interceptions last year

Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006: QB Points – 19.1 (8th), RB Points – 22.2 (6th), WR Points – 19.9 (15th), TE Points – 4.7 (28th). Surprisingly stingy against opposing TE’s last year, but otherwise nothing to shy away from.

2006 Stats: 1956 Rushing Yards Allowed, 3444 Passing Yards Allowed, 366 Points Allowed, 11 Interceptions, 11 Fumble Recoveries, 28 sacks, 0 safeties

2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances: W10 - @JAX (14 FP), W13 - @OAK (19 FP), W17 - CLE (17 FP) / Scored 1 pt or less on 7 occasions. Enough said!

Startable Fantasy Weeks: 6 – W1 vs KC, W7 vs. TEN, W9 @ OAK, W12 @ CLE, W13 @ TEN, W14 vs. TB. With the exception of possibly TB week 14, completely unstartable during fantasy playoffs (vs. DEN, @IND).

Weeks to Avoid Starting: 6 – W3 vs IND, W6 @ JAX, W8 @ SD, W11 vs. NO, W15 vs. DEN, W16 @ IND

Possible Bye Week filler for: Chicago, Miami – W9 (@ OAK)

Teams with great bye-week matchups: CAR (vs. ATL), MIA (vs. BUF), PIT (vs. CLE), JAX (@TEN), CHI (@OAK), ARI (vs. DET)

Fantasy Playoff Schedule: TB, DEN, @IND

Breakdown: Houston finished tied for 30th in fantasy scoring. They allowed 122.3 rushing yards per game (20th) and 215.3 passing yards per game (22nd). Horrible amount of interceptions and sacks, landing in the bottom 5 for each category.

Outlook: After finishing tied for 30th last year in fantasy scoring, there still aren’t too many reasons to get excited this year, unless another year of experience does anything for you. There wasn’t really much talent added to this defense, with the exception of Okoye. Not to mention, they play Indy (x2), New Orleans, Denver and San Diego. Unless you can’t find any other options during Chicago or Miami’s bye weeks, there’s not much to see here. They also easily have probably the worst fantasy playoff schedule in the league.

How they could surprise: With very few favorable matchups, and a horrible playoff schedule, I just don’t see any surprises. Best case scenario, if you go the route of carrying only one defense, they might be available as a last minute filler later on in the season. I’m not too optomistic on Houston this season.

Tier: 4

 

[D_House]

Do you like this? Does it offer anything at all, and do you want me to bother posting the rest.

Yes, yes, and yes. Good work. I especially like the "startable fantasy weeks"

 

[mozzy84]

share it man

 

[sholditch]

I'd be curious to see where you rank Minny and Washington. They are my DST sleepers.

 

[LionsFan78]

share it man

Cool, will do. Working on the next two right now.Thanks for the feedback all...

 

[Mapmaker]

LionsFan78

I for one like what your doing here .... really like your format, good stuff !

 

[LionsFan78]

I'd be curious to see where you rank Minny and Washington. They are my DST sleepers.

We'll see where they all come out when I'm finished, but I think you're right on target with Minnesota. Haven't really looked into Washington much, I haven't gotten to that tier yet. Still sorting out the bottom-dwellers.

 

[waylander]

Well done! Waiting for you to do my teams, which won't be long.

 

[massraider]

Heck, what else do I have to do in July? Please continue.

 

[JoeSteeler]

:( Thanks for sharing!

 

[Micon]

 

[FantasyTrader]

Very...VERY well done.

 

[lions327]

Great stuff, thanks.

 

[LionsFan78]

31. Detroit Lions

2006 Fantasy Finish: 27th

Defensive Losses: CB Dre Bly, DE James Hall, S Terrence Holt, CB Jamar Fletcher, S Jon McGraw, DT Marcus Bell, DT Tyoka Jackson

Defensive Additions: CB Travis Fisher, DE Dewayne White,

Rookies: DE Ikaika Ilama-Francais, FS Gerald Alexander, CB A.J. Davis, LB Johnny Baldwin, CB Ramzee Robinson.

Notes: Obviously Bly’s departure was the most noteworthy loss. Most will agree that he wasn’t as physical of a CB for the “Tampa 2” scheme. Fisher could compete for Bly’s starting job, although a number of athletic rookies could also get a chance to contribute early. Alexander and Robinson have shown the ability to play multiple positions in the secondary in college, and should fit in somewhere in Marinelli’s Tampa 2 system. I like DE White’s speed, and history with Marinelli certainly doesn’t hurt.

Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006: QB Points – 18.9 (11th), RB Points – 21.8 (8th), WR Points – 20.4 (12th), TE Points – 6.5 (t-10th)

2006 Stats: 2005 Rushing Yards Allowed, 3525 Passing Yards Allowed, 398 Points Allowed, 12 Interceptions, 18 Fumble Recoveries, 29 sacks, 2 safeties

Startable Fantasy Weeks: 4 – W1 @ Oakland, W2 vs. MIN, W7 vs. TB, W13 @ MIN

Weeks to Avoid Starting: 7 – W3 @ PHI, W4 vs. CHI, W8 @ CHI, W9 vs. DEN, W11 vs. NYG, W14 vs. DAL, W15 @ SD

Possible Bye Week filler for: San Diego, W7 (Home vs. TB)

Teams with great bye-week matchups: JAX (vsHOU), MIA (@CLE), TB (vsTEN), GB (vsWAS), SD (vs. OAK)

Fantasy Playoff Schedule: DAL, @ SD, KC

Bottom Line: Detroit finished 2006 as the 27th ranked fantasy defense. They averaged 129.6 rushing yards per game (21st) and 220 passing yards per game (25th). They also ranked 30th in PPG (24.9). They posted a miserable 12 interceptions, yet a 3rd best 18 fumble recoveries. I believe they’re heading in the right direction. I actually believe them to be in a better situation than some teams that are actually ranked higher. However, their rough schedule, and downright horrible fantasy playoff schedule, leaves me no choice but to bump them down.

Outlook: Many young versatile players were drafted and acquired through free agency. Plus, they’ll benefit from another year under a defensive-minded head coach. However, they’re still at least a year away from being anything more than a bye-week filler.

How they could surprise: They do get a few points for playing in a turnover-friendly division. Having forced 30 turnovers last season, they could be marginally startable in some division games this year, as well as a few others. Just not the fantasy playoffs.

Tier: 4

 

[Bob Henry]

LionsFan78, nice work. The Startable Fantasy Weeks and Possible Bye Week filler spots are great stuff to present to people and it can dovetail nicely into Chase's D-by-committee article. Using these two can give owners a great head start in planning for their draft and even in-season transaction strategies (some only want to draft 1 defense and take their chances with a bye week fill-in).

 

[LionsFan78]

30. Tennessee Titans

2006 Fantasy Finish: 22nd

Defensive Losses: CB Adam Jones, DE Robaire Smith, LB Colby Bockwoldt

Defensive Additions: CB Nick Harper, CB Kelly Herndon, S Bryan Scott, LB Ryan Fowler, LB Gilbert Gardner

Rookies: FS Michael Griffin, DT Antonio Johnson, DE Jacob Ford, CB Ryan Smith

Notes: Harper will step in this season for Adam Jones, but won’t return punts either, so the situation will still probably be worse. Plus he will have to adjust to no longer playing zone in Indy’s Cover 2. Griffin, if moved to CB as expected, could face a steeper learning curve this season, as it can be tougher to make that transition as a rookie. Hard hitting Herndon could also see a significant role this year. The DL pretty much stayed the same as last year, and for a unit that ranked 29th in sacks, that’s not a good thing. They should see a full season this year from Albert Haynesworth however, so we’ll see if that changes anything.

Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006: QB Points – 19.4 (5th), RB Points – 23.8 (4th), WR Points – 21.2 (5th), TE Points – 6.5 (t-10th). In other words, don’t hesitate starting anybody against them again this year.

2006 Stats: 2322 Rushing Yards Allowed, 3593 Passing Yards Allowed, 400 Points Allowed, 17 Interceptions, 11 Fumble Recoveries, 27 sacks, 2 safeties

Startable Fantasy Weeks: 5 –W6 @ TB, W7 @ HOU, W8 vs. OAK, W13 vs. HOU, W15 @ KC

Weeks to Avoid Starting: W2 vs. IND, W3 @ NO, W11 @ DEN, W12 @ CIN, W14 vs. SD

Possible Bye Week filler for: Baltimore – W8 (Home vs. OAK). Also Denver, Pittsburgh – W6; San Diego – W7

Teams with great bye-week matchups: GB (@MIN), AT(vsHOU), MIA(vsOAK), CAR(vsTB)

Fantasy Playoff Schedule: SD, @KC, NYJ

Bottom Line: The Titans D/ST finished 22nd in 2006 in fantasy scoring. They allowed 144.6 rushing yards per game (30th) and 225.1 passing yards per game (27th). They also allowed 25 PPG (31st). Good news is, they posted 17 interceptions, ranking them in the top half of NFL teams last year. Together, this unit scored 5 defensive touchdowns last season (2nd best in NFL), placing them on many people’s lists as an early sleeper candidate. Pacman Jones’ loss for the season set them back. Jones’ 4 interceptions accounted for ¼ of their total last year. Baltimore D/ST owners take note however; I love their matchup at home against Oakland during BAL’s bye week.

Outlook: Vince Young really isn’t surrounded by much talent this year (meaning they’ll likely play from behind quite often). They were involved in many high scoring games last year, as evident by their extremely high points allowed per game. Their defensive touchdowns and interceptions kept them alive in fantasy scoring during many of those stretches. I just don’t think they’re worth much right now as a fantasy defense. I wouldn’t grab them ahead of many defenses, but if they prove that they can play ball without Adam Jones, then they’re worth at least paying attention to at the start of the season as a mild sleeper team.

How they could surprise: Weeks 5-10 could actually prove to be very startable, if their defense shows that they don’t need Pacman Jones. The first 3 weeks are an excellent chance to gauge their talent, as they play some very tough games.

Tier: 4

 

[Illegal Pants Downfield]

This is great work!

Nitpicky, I know, but can I suggest you use bold instead of italics for your different "sections"?

 

[LionsFan78]

This is great work! Nitpicky, I know, but can I suggest you use bold instead of italics for your different "sections"?

Eh, what the hell, guess it looks better that way anyways. Fixed.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

 

[AB in DC]

After finishing tied for 30th last year in fantasy scoring, there still aren’t too many reasons to get excited this year, unless another year of experience does anything for you.

Actually, it does for me. There's enough young talent on the defense that it makes me wonder if they can finally put all the pieces together. Also, just being in the second year of a new system is usually a big improvement, especially if the front office starts to acquire talent better suited to the new system. For example, Seth Payne was a better fit for the old 3-4, whereas Zgonina and the younger DTs have (I believe) more experience in the 4-3. This may look like a downgrade in terms of talent, but could be a big improvement in fit.The key for Houston will be their secondary. Their front seven is actually rather decent, but it won't matter much if they can't improve at safety or at CB opposite Robinson.

 

[LionsFan78]

After finishing tied for 30th last year in fantasy scoring, there still aren’t too many reasons to get excited this year, unless another year of experience does anything for you.

Also, just being in the second year of a new system is usually a big improvement, especially if the front office starts to acquire talent better suited to the new system.

You make some good points. You know, you got me thinking, I can't think off the top of my head, but I wonder how defenses have fared the last few years after having a year of experience in a new system. I think I'll have to look into that one. Anyone got some good examples?

 

[lions327]

After finishing tied for 30th last year in fantasy scoring, there still aren’t too many reasons to get excited this year, unless another year of experience does anything for you.

Also, just being in the second year of a new system is usually a big improvement, especially if the front office starts to acquire talent better suited to the new system.

You make some good points. You know, you got me thinking, I can't think off the top of my head, but I wonder how defenses have fared the last few years after having a year of experience in a new system. I think I'll have to look into that one. Anyone got some good examples?

In Lovie Smiths first season with the Bears, they allowed an average of 336 yards per game and 20.7 points. In 2005, it was 281 yards per game and 12.6 points. I didn't look up any others, but I think Tampa improved a lot in Dungy's 2nd year, although not confirmed.I think this may happen a lot with the cover 2 since you have to be so disciplined to play it, and it takes time.

 

[LionsFan78]

29. St. Louis Rams

2006 Fantasy Finish: 24th

Key Losses: CB Travis Fisher, DT Jason Fisk, LB Dexter Coakley

Key Additions: DE James Hall, OLB Chris Draft, SS Todd Johnson , CBs Lenny Walls and Mike Rumph

Rookies: DE Adam Carriker, CB Jonathan Wade, DT Clifton Ryan, DT Keith Jackson

Notes: There wasn’t much to like about the Rams last year. They were second only to the Colts in rushing YPG. James Hall unfortunately might not improve their run defense at all, although he could be a factor in the pass rush. Adam Carriker should step in immediately as a starter. Chris Draft adds some versatility, and the remaining additions are all depth. Travis Fisher seems to be the only notable loss, which happens to be in the one area that the Rams weren’t all that bad at last season - pass defense. An aging Dante Hall might add some excitement to the return game as well.

Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006: QB Points – 16.6 (t-24th), RB Points – 24.6 (2nd), WR Points – 19.2 (18th), TE Points – 5.2 (24th). Never bench a RB against them, unless the situation drastically changes.

2006 Stats: 2327 Rushing Yards Allowed, 3035 Passing Yards Allowed, 381 Points Allowed, 17 Interceptions, 15 Fumble Recoveries, 34 sacks, 0 safeties

2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances: W1 - DEN (18 FP), W15 - @OAK (24 FP), / W8 - @SD (-6 FP), W14 - CHI (-7 FP)

Startable Fantasy Weeks: 2 – W3 @ TB, W8 vs. CLE

Weeks to Avoid Starting: 6 – W4 @ DAL, W7 @ SEA, W10 @ NO, W12 vs. SEA, W14 @ CIN, W16 vs. PIT

Possible Bye Week filler for: BAL – W8 (Home vs. CLE)

Teams with great bye-week matchups: ARI (@TB), CAR (@TEN), CIN (@BUF), DEN (@DET), SD (@MIN), SEA (@CLE)

Fantasy Playoff Schedule: @CIN, GB, PIT

Breakdown: STL finished as the 24th ranked fantasy defense last year. They allowed 145.4 rushing yards per game (31st) and 189.7 passing yards per game (8th). They did manage to post a respectable 17 interceptions and 15 fumble recoveries, placing them in the top half of the league for both categories. This will be year two with Haslett as Defensive Coordinator, and they already made decent improvements from 2005. If they had a weaker schedule, I’d be more optomistic. Division foes should have no problems putting up points on them, especially if their run defense doesn’t get better. Add in away games @ NO, CIN and DAL, and it doesn’t look much better. I see plenty more shootouts, which resulted in them giving up almost 24 points per game last season. Depending on how teams like BAL, ATL and ARI fare offensively, there might be room for a few spot starts here and there, but I still believe they’re worth staying away from. They could give BAL owners a solid bye week against CLE week 8 however, so keep that in the back of your mind.

Outlook: Bottom line, that run defense needs to get a hell of a lot better, especially in a division filled with good RBs. Thier turnovers once ranked them as a strong sleeper team last season. This year, the schedule is just too hard, and the matchups just aren’t there. Keep tabs on them for the time being, but don’t bump them up from the bottom tier just yet. If you see something you like as a combo team with a solid DEF1, and you can afford the roster spot, then by all means grab them and hope for the best.

How they might surprise: Like I mentioned above, in early 2006 they looked like a solid waiver wire pickup due to a strong showing in turnovers. If they once again post some respectable numbers, then grab them off waivers and play them cautiously. They just might prove useful the 2nd half of the season against a few interception-friendly QB’s.

Tier: 4

 

[LionsFan78]

28. Cleveland Browns

2006 Fantasy Finish: 23rd

Defensive Losses: DE Alvin McKinley, CB Daylon McCutcheon

Defensive Additions: DE Robaire Smith, DE Antwan Peek, CB Kenny Wright, NT Shaun Smith

Rookies: CB Eric Wright, CB Brandon McDonald, DE Melila Purcell, DE Chase Pittman

Notes: There is some reason for optomism here. Key losses were addressed via free agency and the draft. Robaire Smith and Shaun Smith should help their horrible rushing defense. Antwan Peek had a solid season in Houston a few years back, when they used to run the 3-4 defense. He should fit in well in Cleveland. Josh Cribbs also bumps them up a notch as a kick/punt return man. He added a kick return for a TD last season.

Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006: QB Points – 16.7 (23rd), RB Points – 20.4 (15th), WR Points – 20.5 (9th), TE Points – 4.8 (27th)

2006 Stats: 2278 Rushing Yards Allowed, 3237 Passing Yards Allowed, 356 Points Allowed, 18 Interceptions, 9 Fumble Recoveries, 30 sacks, 0 safeties

2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances: W11 - PIT (13 FP), W8 - NYJ (11 FP), W10 - @ATL (11 FP) / W5 - @CAR (1 FP), W9 - @SD (1 FP) W12 - CIN (1 FP)

Startable Fantasy Weeks: 4 – W3 @ OAK, W6 vs. MIA, W12 vs. HOU, W15 vs. BUF

Weeks to Avoid Starting: 7 – W1 vs. PIT, W2 vs. CIN, W5 @ NE, W8 @ STL, W9 vs. SEA, W10 @ PIT, W16 @ CIN

Possible Bye Week filler for: Denver, Pittsburgh – W6 (Home vs. MIA)

Teams with great bye-week matchups: NO (vs. ATL), BAL (@BUF), NE (@MIA), TB (@DET), KC (@OAK)

Fantasy Playoff Schedule: @NYJ, BUF, @CIN

Breakdown: Cleveland finished as the 23rd ranked fantasy defense last year. They allowed 142.2 rushing yards per game (29th) and 202.6 passing yards per game (15th). They also allowed 22.3 PPG (22nd). They did manage a respectable 18 interceptions and 9 fumble recoveries however. Paranoid Baltimore D/ST owners could even want to give them a shot week 12 against HOU, when BAL plays @ SD (One of the few weeks I’d even consider benching BAL).

Outlook: Other than a few favorable matchups here and there, Cleveland really doesn’t pose much of an option. If they get hot, they could be worth a look during the fantasy playoffs, with the exception of an away game @ CIN week 16. I’d follow their production during the first part of the season before getting too excited about them for the time being.

How they could surprise: As stated above, they managed 18 interceptions and 9 fumble recoveries. Those are decent numbers of turnovers for such a low-ranked team. As with any other team, a unit that forces turnovers could carry fantasy value, so keep tabs on those numbers.

Tier: 4

 

[LionsFan78]

27. Washington Redskins

2006 Fantasy Finish: 32nd

Defensive Losses: CB Kenny Wright, FS Adam Archuleta

Defensive Additions: MLB London Fletcher, CB Fred Smoot, CB David Macklin

Rookies: FS LaRon Landry, OLB Dallas Sartz, LB H.B. Blades

Notes: The Skins actually spent some time this offseason addressing the defense. London Fletcher should do quite well in this defense, and will also bring some well needed locker-room leadership. FS Laron Landry was the best pick for this team in the first round, and if he isn’t a day 1 starter, I’ll be surprised. If he can gel with fellow S Sean Taylor, then you just might be looking at one of the most potent tandem in the league. Smoot is back after a stint in Minnesota. The team also signed reserve CB David Macklin. These moves makes the loss of Kenny Wright pretty unnoticable. And finally, the loss of Adam Archuleta will not hurt the club at all, seeing as how he never really had a chance to contribute anyway. On special teams, WR Antwan Randle El is a very solid return man. He has scored a special teams touchdown in 4 of the last 5 years.

Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006: QB Points – 19.6 (4th), RB Points – 22.0 (7th), WR Points – 21.1 (t-7th), TE Points – 6.7 (t-7th). Unless you see a very noticeable change in this defense, don’t hesitate to start anyone at any position against this unit.

2006 Stats: 2199 Rushing Yards Allowed, 3489 Passing Yards Allowed, 376 Points Allowed, 6 Interceptions, 6 Fumble Recoveries, 20 sacks, 1 safeties

2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances: W12 – vs. CAR (9 FP) / 9 weeks of 2 points or less.

Startable Fantasy Weeks: 4 – W1 vs. MIA, W5 vs. DET, W12 @ TB, W13 vs. BUF

Weeks to Avoid Starting: 5 – W2 @ PHI, W8 @ NE, W10 vs. PHI, W11 @ DAL, W14 vs. CHI

Teams with great bye-week matchups: MIN (vs. GB), ATL (vs. HOU), MIA (vs. OAK)

Possible Bye Week filler for: Minnesota, Philadelphia, Oakland – W5 (Home vs. DET)

Fantasy Playoff Schedule: CHI, @NYG, @MIN

Breakdown: The single worst unit in fantasy football last season. They allowed 23.5 PPG last season, ranking them 27th in the NFL. They finished dead last in interceptions, dead last in sacks, and close to last in fumble recoveries. They also finished in the bottom half for both rushing and passing yards per game. Do you want the good news? They had such abnormally low turnovers last year, that it can only get better. The interceptions should no doubt increase. They’ve added some quality players, there’s no doubt about that.

Outlook: Improvements in the secondary just aren’t enough for me to rank them much higher than this, especially after finishing dead last. They’ll likely serve as nothing more than a spot starter every now and then for favorable matchups. Also, I wouldn’t overlook their fantasy playoff schedule (Chicago, @ NYG, @ MIN). There could be some opportunities against some not-so perfect QBs.

How they might surprise: I’ll tell you one reason for optomism here. There is no risk associated with drafting them. Obviously, don’t look here for your starting D/ST, but the price for this defense will be so dirt cheap that chances are you’ll get one hell of a bargain if they do improve. There are as many as 5 positive matchups to work with, so don't hesitate to grab them up if they start performing well.

Tier: 4

 

[Peak]

Still going....should pump out 3 per day now hopefully. I've had to adjust my rankings quite a bit after doing some further analysis.

28. Cleveland Browns

Defensive Losses: DE Alvin McKinley, CB Daylon McCutcheon

Defensive Additions: DE Robaire Smith, DE Antwan Peek, CB Kenny Wright, NT Shaun Smith

Rookies: CB Eric Wright, CB Brandon McDonald, DE Melila Purcell, DE Chase Pittman

Notes: There is some reason for optomism here. Key losses were addressed via free agency and the draft. Robaire Smith and Shaun Smith should help their rushing defense. Antwan Peek had a solid season in Houston a few years back, when they used to run the 3-4 defense. He should fit in well in Cleveland. Josh Cribbs also bumps them up a notch as a kick/punt return man. He added a kick return for a TD last season.

Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006: QB Points – 16.7 (23rd), RB Points – 20.4 (15th), WR Points – 20.5 (9th), TE Points – 4.8 (27th)

2006 Stats: 2278 Rushing Yards Allowed, 3237 Passing Yards Allowed, 356 Points Allowed, 18 Interceptions, 9 Fumble Recoveries, 30 sacks, 0 safeties

2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances: W11 - PIT (13 FP), W8 - NYJ (11 FP), W10 - @ATL (11 FP) / W5 - @CAR (1 FP), W9 - @SD (1 FP) W12 - CIN (1 FP)

Startable Fantasy Weeks: 4 – W3 @ OAK, W6 vs. MIA, W12 vs. HOU, W15 vs. BUF

Possible Bye Week filler for: Denver, Pittsburgh – W6 (Home vs. MIA)

Bottom Line: Other than a few favorable matchups here and there, Cleveland really doesn’t pose much of an option. If they get hot, they could be worth a look during the fantasy playoffs, preferably week 15 at home vs. BUF. But are you willing to risk it? Hopefully if you’re one game away from the Super Bowl, you’ve got a must-start defense. Paranoid Baltimore D/ST owners could even want to give them a shot week 12 against HOU, when BAL plays @ SD (One of the few weeks I’d even consider benching BAL). That said, this unit finished 23rd overall in fantasy scoring last season, and it does not look like their defense got any worse this off season. On paper, they should be a little better this year, but an unfavorable schedule forces me to rank them here.

Tier: 4

Pretty honest and legit analysis. As much as I want to disagree with the ranking, I can't disagree with the logic. As a Browns fan I think the talent is better this year than in previous years, but that's not saying much. I think by next year they should start to climb out of the cellar in the D/ST Rankings. Good job!

 

[LionsFan78]

26. San Francisco 49ers

2006 Fantasy Finish: t-30th

Defensive Losses: DT Anthony Adams

Defensive Additions: CB Nate Clements, S Michael Lewis, OLB Tully Banta-Cain, NT Aubrayo Franklin

Rookies: ILB Patrick Willis, DT Ray McDonald, DE Jay Moore, FS Dashon Goldson, DT Joe Cohen, CB Tarrell Brown

Notes: The 49ers really made some upgrades this offseason on defense. They made CB Nate Clements the highest-paid defender ever. He could be a solid difference maker. Tully Banta-Cain is a definite upgrade, and should start at outside linebacker. Rookie LB Patrick Willis will be a spectacular LB for this defense as well. On special teams, Maurice Hicks averaged an impressive 25.1 yards per kick return, so he could produce a surprise TD this year. They really weren’t hurt much from losses this year. The only one of note was DT Anthony Adams, who some say was not a great fit for the 3-4 defense SF will run this year.

Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006: QB Points – 18.7 (12th), RB Points – 24.2 (3rd), WR Points – 19.8 (16th), TE Points – 7.6 (4th). Don’t hesitate to start your RBs against this unit, unless they show significant improvement in run support.

2006 Stats: 1936 Rushing Yards Allowed, 3571 Passing Yards Allowed, 412 Points Allowed, 14 Interceptions, 13 Fumble Recoveries, 34 sacks, 1 safety

2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances: W5 – vs. OAK (16 FP), W9 - vs. MIN (16 FP), W10 - @DET (15 FP) / W4 - @ KC (-7), W6 – SD (-8 FP)

Startable Fantasy Weeks: 4 – W4 vs. SEA, W13 @ CAR, W14 vs. MIN, W16 vs. TB. I don’t see anything I really like for most of the season. They do have 2 favorable home games during the fantasy playoffs however.

Weeks to Avoid Starting: 4 – W2 @ STL, W3 @ PIT, W8 vs. NO, W11 vs. STL, W15 vs. CIN.

Teams with great bye-week matchups: MIA (@CLE), JAX (vs. HOU), TB (vs. TEN), SD (vs. OAK)

Possible Bye Week filler for: JAX – W4 (Home vs. SEA). They really had Seattle’s number last year, so this could possibly be a matchup to pay attention to.

Fantasy Playoff Schedule: MIN, CIN, TB. All home games.

Bottom Line: The 49ers have been one of the hardest teams for me to rank, because I really think they’ve made themselves a better team than last season. But they finished tied for 30th place in fantasy scoring last season, allowing an NFL worst 25.8 PPG. Pedestrian numbers for turnovers, and a mediocre 34 sacks doesn’t make things any better. They have made some significant improvements, there’s no doubt about that. I just don’t like thier schedule. Besides a week 4 home game against Seattle, who they matched up well against last season, nothing really sticks out to me until week 13. Don’t sleep on them for fantasy playoff consideration however.

Outlook: Let’s be honest, their schedule got much tougher this season, and there’s really not enough startable games for them to rank much higher. Even though they’ve improved as a team. If they show major improvements over last season, then start to give them some consideration, and don’t forget the fact that they have all home games during the fantasy playoffs.

How they might surprise: They might still be a year or two away, but never underestimate the ability for a team to get hot out of nowhere. It happens every year. If they prove to be a worthy defensive unit, their schedule does get a little better the second half of the year. They could even be worth something during the fantasy playoffs, with 3 home games.

Tier: 4

 

[wannabee]

This is a great thread, Lions. Good job.

 

[LionsFan78]

25. Arizona Cardinals

2006 Fantasy Finish: 19th

Defensive Losses: None

Defensive Additions: S Terrence Holt, CB Ralph Brown and CB Roderick Hood

Rookies: DT Alan Branch, ILB Buster Davis

Notes: Holt, Brown and Hood should all see some playing time in Arizona’s thin secondary. The big question this year is whether or not Arizona can fit their defensive players into a new 3-4 scheme, which new HC Ken Whisenhunt is supposedly installing. The good news is that they spent their first two draft picks this year on players that should fit in well, even if it’s not right away. I love the fact that this defense has lost nobody, and even drafted a few day 1 prospects. Plus, even with a new head coach, they’re still retaining their DC from last year.

Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006: QB Points – 19.0 (t-9th), RB Points – 21.0 (11th), WR Points – 21.9 (3rd), TE Points – 5.8 (15th). The biggest thing that sticks out here is WR’s. They gave up the 3rd most highest amount of points to opposing WR’s last year. Unless you think Terrence Holt will change that much, I’d keep that in mind.

2006 Stats: 1897 Rushing Yards Allowed, 3694 Passing Yards Allowed, 389 Points Allowed, 16 Interceptions, 17 Fumble Recoveries, 38 sacks, 0 safeties

2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances: W7 - @OAK (14 FP), W6 - vs. CHI (13 FP) / W8 - @ GB (-4), W10 – vs. DAL (-1 FP)

Startable Fantasy Weeks: 5 – W6 vs. CAR (Pending status of CAR offense), W7 @ WAS, W9 @ TB, W10 vs. DET, W13 vs. CLE

Weeks to Avoid Starting: 7 – W2 vs. SEA (Marginal, performed well in both matchups against Seattle last sesaon), W3 @ BAL, W4 vs. PIT, W5 @ STL, W11 @ CIN, W14 @ SEA (Marginal), W15 @ NO

Possible Bye Week filler for: New England – W10 (Home vs. DET). Also Chicago, Miami – W9 (@ TB)

Teams with great bye-week matchups: STL (vs. CLE), TEN (vs. OAK), NYJ (vs. BUF), SD (vs. HOU), JAX (@ TB), NE (vs. WAS)

Fantasy Playoff Schedule: @SEA, @NO, ATL

Breakdown: They averaged 6.1 PPG (Better than OAK, who many are optomistic on this season) in 2006, and finished as the 19th best fantasy defense last year. The question remains, is the talent there in Arizona good enough to make a fantasy impact? Their 24.3 PPG last season was the 29th worst in the NFL. They also forced 33 turnovers, and posted a respectable 38 sacks. At first glance, there are not many matchups that look favorable. I would keep an eye on how many situations play out though at the beginning of the season. If division rivals SF or SEA show any signs of regressing at all, then I would bump up the matchups that Arizona has with them, as both teams have QB’s capable of turning the ball over if pressure is put on their running game. ARI’s run defense was middle of the pack last year, so they could stand a chance at minimizing either team’s running attack.

Outlook: I’m not crazy about bumping Arizona down from last year, as they’ve really lost nobody this offseason. Most of that has to do with me having to rank other teams ahead of them. If Arizona gets hot, then they are certainly worth picking up. They face some pretty tough competition on the road this year, with games @ CIN, NO, SEA and STL. They did prove last year that they can put up numbers against talented teams, such as CHI, SEA, and STL. But they do have some dangerous teams on deck, and a potentially brutal fantasy playoff schedule. I’d like to see how they perform against some solid teams weeks 2-5 before I bump them up too high. But their performance agianst tougher teams, together with a solid 19th place finish, is enough for me to start them off as the first team in my 3rd tier of defenses, as an extremely low-risk sleeper.

How they might surprise: Like I stated above, they put up solid numbers against good teams last year, and they are returning basically the same unit. If they can get past some rough games to start the season, while maintaining their solid numbers of turnovers and sacks from the previous year, then I’m wrong about them and they’ll deserve to rise up the rankings fast.

Tier: 3

 

[LionsFan78]

24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2006 Fantasy Finish: 28th

Defensive Losses: DE Dewayne White, LB Shelton Quarles, DT Booger McFarland (mid-2006)

Defensive Additions: LB Cato June, DE Kevin Carter, DE Patrick Chukwurah, CB Sammy Davis

Rookies: DE Gaines Adams, SS Sabby Piscitelli, LB Quincy Black, CB Tenard Jackson, DE Greg Peterson, OLB Adam Heyward, CB Marcus Hamilton

Notes: DE Dewayne White really shouldn’t be missed this season, as he really only came on strong while replacing the injured Simeon Rice. Cato June should come in and immediately impact this defense. Kevin Carter can play either DE or DT, and Patrick Chukwurah will add some pass rushing capability. Add in the most dominant DE in the draft in Gaines Adams, along with a handful of other defensive players that could step in this season. The Bucs not only added some playmakers this offseason, but they added some well needed depth and youth as well.

Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006: QB Points – 19.4 (t-5th), RB Points – 19.4 (t-19th), WR Points – 18.9 (22nd), TE Points – 7.3 (5th).

2006 Stats: 1922 Rushing Yards Allowed, 3349 Passing Yards Allowed, 353 Points Allowed, 11 Interceptions, 9 Fumble Recoveries, 26 sacks, 0 safety

2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances: W7 - PHI (15 FP), W16 - @CLE (20 FP) / W9 - NO (-4 FP), W12 - @DAL (-6 FP).

Startable Fantasy Weeks: 4 – W6 vs. TEN, W7 @ DET, W12 vs. WAS, W14 @ HOU

Weeks to Avoid Starting: 4 - W2 vs. NO, W3 vs. STL, W5 @ IND, W13 @ NO

Possible Bye Week filler for: SD, CAR – W7 (@ DET). Also DEN, PIT – W6 (Home vs. TEN)

Solid Combination with: DAL

Fantasy Playoff Schedule: @HOU, ATL, @SF

Breakdown: Overall, they finished 28th in fantasy scoring last season, allowing 22.1 PPG. They also finished 30th for interceptions (11) while only recovering 9 fumbles. Tampa was actually on my list of rising defenses this year. In my opinion, they did nothing but upgrade this offseason, both in free agency and the draft. But I had to drop them down a bit in my rankings. Unfortunately, their schedule just stinks. Even if you look at the Strength of Schedule breakdown, there’s only two favorable matchups listed. Good news is, there’s also only two ‘tough’ games as well. It’ll be slim pickings to start the season though, as they face SEA, NO, STL and IND during their first 5 weeks.

Outlook: If their defense shows improvement, they could be worth occasional consideration. With a few fresh faces, as well as hopefully a healthy Simeon Rice, they could surprise this year. I feel comfortable ranking them towards the bottom of the 3rd tier of defenses, as a low-risk defense with a stellar fantasy playoff schedule.

How they could surprise: Honestly, even with an improved defense this season, I just don’t see them rising very high in the rankings during the regular season. Here’s where they could come out of nowhere though – the fantasy playoffs. They could be a very solid start throughout weeks 15-17, and they’ll likely be sitting there on the waiver wire. Don’t forget they have a late season bye week as well, as that could give them a slight boost down the stretch.

Tier: 3

 

[LionsFan78]

23. Atlanta Falcons

2006 Fantasy Finish: 18th

Defensive Losses: DE Patrick Kerney, LB Edgerton Hartwell, LB Ike Reese

Defensive Additions: CB Lewis Sanders, LB Marcus Wilkins

Rookies: DE Jamaal Anderson, CB Chris Houston, OLB Stephen Nicholas, DT Trey Lewis, CB David Irons, SS Daren Stone

Notes: Free agency was just a mess. Sanders and Wilkins seem to be depth, probably not much more. Hartwell was a bust, and Kerney will be replaced by rookie Jamaal Anderson. Anderson and Houston should both fill in nicely as rookies, but as Atlanta transitions to ex-Dallas DC Mike Zimmer’s 4-3 scheme, there will have to be some growing pains attached. A healthy John Abraham could increase their value this year, as he posted a respectable 4 sacks in only 6 games last year.

Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006: QB Points – 17.6 (13th), RB Points – 17.9 (22nd), WR Points – 23.0 (1st), TE Points – 5.5 (20th). Worst defense in fantasy last season for opposing WR’s.

2006 Stats: 1662 Rushing Yards Allowed, 3663 Passing Yards Allowed, 328 Points Allowed, 12 Interceptions, 14 Fumble Recoveries, 37 sacks, 0 safety

2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances: W4 - ARI (19 FP), W1 - @CAR (15 FP), W14 - @TB (15 FP) / W12 - NO (-2 FP), W3 – @NO (0 FP), W15 – DAL (0 FP). Textbook definition of inconsistency. 8 total games of 3 fantasy points or less.

Startable Fantasy Weeks: 7 – W1 @MIN, W4 vs. HOU, W5 @TEN, W6 vs. NYG, W9 vs. SF, W11 vs. TB, W15 @TB

Weeks to Avoid Starting: 4 - W7 @ NO, W12 vs. IND, W13 @ STL, W14 vs. NO

Possible Bye Week filler for: JAX – W4 (Home vs. HOU)

Solid Combination with: Buffalo and Denver. Possibly Dallas or Oakland as well. Even though they share a bye-week, they also matchup well with Arizona.

Fantasy Playoff Schedule: NO, @TB, @ARI

Breakdown: ATL finished the season as the 18th ranked fantasy defense. They allowed 20.5 PPG (15th), finished in the top 10 for rushing defense (103.6 YPG), and 29th in passing defense (229.3 YPG). They were very startable at times last year, but were also very inconsistent. I don’t see those inconsistencies changing much this year with a completely new coaching staff. I do see a good schedule to work with though. I believe they’ll start the season strong. I wouldn’t worry about throwing them in vs. NYG week 6. The Giants are Tiki-less this year (He ran all over them last year for 227 total yards). They also complement Jacksonville’s bye week very well, with a home game vs. HOU. Their fantasy playoff schedule is potentially favorable, with the possible exception of W14 vs. NO.

Outlook: ATL flirted around with fantasy success often last season. I see as many as 7 favorable matchups this year, so I expect much of the same. With so many questions to answer this year, I believe they’re a gamble as a DEF1, so proceed cautiously. Thier increasingly tough schedule, combined with a sub-par free agency, has me starting them further down the list than their 18th place finish last season. But if defense-by-committee is your thing, go ahead and pair them with somebody.

How they might surprise: If Atlanta can get on board with Mike Zimmer, and get full season from many of their playmakers, they have a shot at bumping up a tier. Pay attention to interceptions and sacks. They were near the bottom in picks last year, but very respectable in fumbles recovered. And they ranked near the top 10 for sacks, which is great considering no single player recorded more than 6. If all the gears can start turning in this defense, they have a chance to skyrocket back up into the top ten fantasy defenses by mid-season.

Tier: 3

 

[D_House]

Holy Cow is this some great work. Love the "Solid Combination With" feature... I always wait on DEF and pair them up.

 

[LionsFan78]

Holy Cow is this some great work. Love the "Solid Combination With" feature... I always wait on DEF and pair them up.

Much appreciated man, thanks. I agree, I lived off of SD and ATL last year, and unless I grab a top D at the right price this year, I'm sure I'll go the combo route again. It's been fun, and very surprising how my outlook changed on certain defenses. My top 5 is starting to look pretty interesting, so check back, as I'll be hoping for some bigtime feedback for those.

 

[AB in DC]

This is pretty good work, but when I look at the rankings you give, I'm not seeing very many changes from 2006 actual totals. There is huge fluctuation from year to year among NFL defenses (both in terms of FP scored/allowed and conventional NFL statistics), but you're only bumping teams up or down a handful of slots from last year.

I'd love to see some insight on which teams have the potential to see major improvements or major declines compared to 2006.

 

[AB in DC]

By the way, how exactly are you ranking these defenses?

(a) Expected fantasy points from the D/STs,

(b) Expected FPs allowed to opposing offenses,

© Yards allowed,

(d) Points allowed, or

(e) some combination?

 

[LionsFan78]

By the way, how exactly are you ranking these defenses? (a) Expected fantasy points from the D/STs,(b) Expected FPs allowed to opposing offenses,© Yards allowed,(d) Points allowed, or(e) some combination?

I rank them according to how many fantasy points I believe they'll net me, and whether or not I can use them as part of a committee. Not sure if I can give you the kind of answer you want, but here goes. Basically, everyone starts out right about where they ended during the fantasy playoffs last season. I throw week 17 out, just not something I like to judge teams on. Then I bump teams up or down, and analyze them one on one against other teams tiered in the same area. A good free agency, healthy draft, coaching changes, etc. will determine whether or not I go up or down. I also use the following factors in determining how I personally would rank them...1) Schedule - How many favorable matchups do I see? Most bottom dwellers have 4-5 favorable matchups2) Fantasy Playoff Schedule - This one mainly factors in on tiers 2-3. Of course the top tier 'must start' will likely be thrown in no matter what the matchup is, unless something really sticks out. If you have less startable weeks, yet a solid playoff schedule, I'll bump you up ahead of another quality team. 3) Special Teams factors in just a little as well. If you have a great return man, it might just be enough to bump you ahead of an equally ranked team. For instance, I currently have the Jets and the Packers in the same general area. Lets say schedules are about even (haven't really gone that deep yet), I'll give NYJ the nod, as I believe Jusin Miller >>> GB's returners.4) Combination of last year's stats. I hate using last year's stats, becuase as you said, they fluctuate. The big numbers I look at are PPG, rushing and passing defense (along with the offseason moves to correct/sustain each category) and turnovers. Not sure if I clarified or not. Hope it helps though...

 

[LionsFan78]

This is pretty good work, but when I look at the rankings you give, I'm not seeing very many changes from 2006 actual totals.

Thanks btw, always appreciate the feedback. Also, you're still looking at my bottom half of teams. I have at least three teams that as of right now have moved up at least 10 slots from their 2006 finish into tier two, with rationale provided.

 

[robb]

LionsFan:

Are you using the DTBC matrix I provided in these rankings at all? I would be very curious if it helped you when looking at which Combos to use? Or, are you simply doing combinations based on your analysis?

I was hoping the DTBC matrix would assist you, but one never knows until one asks!

Robb

p.s. Keep up the analysis, it too is very useful

 

[LionsFan78]

LionsFan:Are you using the DTBC matrix I provided in these rankings at all? I would be very curious if it helped you when looking at which Combos to use? Or, are you simply doing combinations based on your analysis?I was hoping the DTBC matrix would assist you, but one never knows until one asks!Robbp.s. Keep up the analysis, it too is very useful

Hey Robb, actually I have not had a chance to use it yet. I was waiting until the weekend to try it. Are any of the combinations I'm coming up with on your matrix as well? I'll let you know once I've had a chance to look at it, probably tommorrow night.

 

[LionsFan78]

Sorry for the hiatus. I finished most of the rankings so I could better rank everybody. I'll pump all the rest out pretty quick. Please give inputs, I could always use an extra set of eyes. I also added a few sections.

22. New York Giants

2006 Fantasy Finish: 26th

Defensive Losses: LB Lavar Arrington, LB Carlos Emmons, CB Frank Walker

Defensive Additions: LB Kawika Mitchell, S Michael Stone

Rookies: CB Aaron Ross, DT Jay Alford, LB Zak DeOssie, SS Michael Johnson

Notes: The good news is last year the Giants were plagued with injuries to the front seven, so hopefully they can get a fresh start this year under new DC Steve Spagnuolo. He enjoyed some success while a member of the PHI staff, so hopefully the Giants can benefit this year. The bad news is they made hardly any upgrades during the offseason. Arrington is once again a FA, and Kawika Mitchell doesn’t seem to be much of an upgrade to the LB core. The did spend a number of early picks on defense however.

Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006: QB Points – 20.4 (t-1st), RB Points – 19.4 (t-19th), WR Points – 20.4 (12th), TE Points – 6.6 (9th). Very QB friendly last season.

2006 Stats: 1830 Rushing Yards Allowed, 3649 Passing Yards Allowed, 362 Points Allowed, 17 Interceptions, 11 Fumble Recoveries, 32 sacks, 1 safety

2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances: W6 - @ATL (12 FP), W7 - @DAL (18 FP), W14 - @CAR (12 FP) / 8 Games of 2 points or less.

Startable Fantasy Weeks: 6 – W2 vs. GB, W7 vs. SF, W11@DET, W12 vs. MIN, W15 vs. WAS, W16@BUF

Weeks to Avoid Starting: 3 - W4@PHI, W10@DAL, W13@CHI

Possible Bye Week filler for: SD, CAR – W7 (Home vs. SF).

Good Combination With: Matches up quite well with OAK and NYJ. See also IND and KC.

Fantasy Playoff Schedule: @PHI, WAS, @BUF

Breakdown: After a great stretch last season between weeks 5-9, they completely faded the second half of the season, only topping 5 fantasy points once. They ended up finishing 26th in defensive fantasy points. They allowed 22.6 PPG last season (24th), ranking 14th in rushing YPG and 28th in passing yards. They also forced 28 total turnovers. I like them as a sleeper pick this year, with a great fantasy playoff schedule. They have a home game against WAS week 15, a game in which they fared quite well in last season, as well as a game @ BUF week 16.

Outlook: They suffered some injuries last season, and now they have a new DC with an aggressive style. So I can live with giving them a slight upgrade to their 2006 finish. I would avoid them as a DEF1, yet take them as a sleeper/combo defense with upside. Don’t sleep on them if considering a fantasy playoff defense.

How they might surprise: They were doomed last season. They opened up the season with a horrible schedule, and subsequent horrible fantasy performances, against Indy, PHI and SEA, before starting to post respectable numbers. Also, there were just too many shootouts last year. I noted 7 games where they allowed at least 26 points. All of the non-divisional teams in which those shootouts occurred are not on the schedule for 2007. If they can cut down on those shootouts and focus on playing sound defense, while improving their performances against NFC East opponents (4 of 6 games were poor outings in 2006), then they have the possibility of pushing themselves into a top 15 defense.

Tier: 3

 

[LionsFan78]

21. Green Bay Packers

2006 Fantasy Finish: 13th

Key Losses: None

Key Additions: CB Frank Walker

Rookies: DT Justin Harrell, SS Aaron Rouse, LB Korey Hall, LB Desmond Bishop

Notes: This defense lost virtually nobody, and added depth at CB. Most of their cap room was spent retaining veterans. Harrell and Rouse could step in this season and contribute, and together with former first rounder A.J. Hawk and 2nd rounder Nick Collins, this team has a solid mix of youth and veterans.

Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006: QB Points – 19.2 (7th), RB Points – 20.2 (16th), WR Points – 20.1 (14th), TE Points – 5.7 (t-16th).

2006 Stats: 1825 Rushing Yards Allowed, 3309 Passing Yards Allowed, 366 Points Allowed, 23 Interceptions, 10 Fumble Recoveries, 46 sacks, 0 safety

2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances: W17 - @ CHI (24 FP), W7 - @MIA (12 FP), W15 - DET (16 FP) / W11 - NE (-3 FP), W13 – NYJ (-3 FP). Textbook definition of inconsistency. 8 total games of 3 fantasy points or less.

Startable Fantasy Weeks: 6 - W4 @ MIN, W6 vs. WAS, W10 vs. MIN, W11 vs. CAR, W12 @ DET, W14 vs. OAK

Weeks to Avoid Starting: 6 - W1 vs. PHI, W3 vs. SD, W5 @ CHI, W8 @ DEN, W13 @ DAL, W15 @ STL

Possible Bye Week filler for: JAX – W4 (@ MIN)

Good Combination with: OAK (with the exception of two equally tough week 15 matchups.). Also some good possibilities with KC and DEN.

Fantasy Playoff Schedule: OAK, @STL, @CHI

Breakdown: GB finished the season as the 13th scoring fantasy defense, although I would consider that number with a grain of salt. Their unreal 5 interception, 2 defensive TD performance against CHI at the end of last year really vaulted them up the rankings, and they likely would’ve finished at least 6-7 spots down had it been an average outcome. They allowed 22.9 PPG (25th), and averaged 114.1 rushing YPG (13th) and 206.8 passing YPG (17th). They really paid off last year in turnovers and sacks. Their 23 interceptions was 3rd in the league, and their 46 sacks ranked 4th. And they were very consistent agains opposing teams last year. All of their bad fantasy performances came against playoff caliber teams (Every one of them made it except STL). Consider the fact that their defense has not changed one bit from last season, adding a few young players in the draft instead. Now the bad news, the schedule. According to FBG’s Strength of Schedule analysis, there is only 1 ‘easy’ game on the schedule, and 3 ‘tough’ matchups. They have a semi-decent playoff schedule, with a home game vs. OAK week 14, and a game @ CHI week 16.

Outlook: They get an instant bump in my book for playing in the NFC North. Almost half of their 23 interceptions came against NFC North opponents last season, and all three teams have QB’s capable of multiple turnovers. If only the schedule was more favorable, there could be a solid argument in favor of them being drafted early as a DEF1, start-worthy in most games. Still, I would draft them and expect to start them occasionally, and optomistic of a somewhat favorable fantasy playoffs. Pair them up with another solid defense if possible. With a very tough schedule, and an unrealistic finish to last season, I have to start them off further down than their 13th place finish to 2006.

How they might surprise: Regardless of the tough schedule, there’s room for a big leap from their current ranking. As I stated above, they really didn’t have any head-scratching performances last season. You should be able to pinpoint the favorable matchups, and the not-so favorable matchups, on a week to week basis. At the very least, you’re looking at a defense that you can plug into a favorable matchup with a good amount of certainty. Also, aside from playing in the shaky NFC North, they have 9 matchups this year against QB’s with less than 2 full years of starting experience. 10 if KC ends up starting Brodie Croyle. If they can repeat the same kind of numbers of turnovers and sacks, they could crack the top 10 very easily.

Tier: 3

 

[LionsFan78]

20. Seattle Seahawks

2006 Fantasy Finish: 17th

Defensive Losses: DE Grant Wistrom, DE Joe Tafoya, S Ken Hamlin

Defensive Additions: DE Patrick Kerney, DE Brandon Green, SS Brian Russel, FS Deion Grant

Rookies: CB Josh Wilson, DT Brandon Mebane, DE Baraka Atkins, LB Will Herring

Notes: Russel has people talking this year, describing him as a born leader. Instant upgrade. Upgrading the safety position was key this year, as they gave up plenty of ground to opposing WR’s last season. Hopefully Patrick Kerney can relive his 13 sack 2004 season. They also added depth at DE in Brandon Green. Bottom line, the additions far outweigh the losses. Kerney adds some youth in place of Grant Wistrom, and both safeties were upgrades. From a special teams perspective, Nate Burleson is a great option as a return man.

Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006: QB Points – 17.6 (13th), RB Points – 19.8 (17th), WR Points – 21.2 (t-5th), TE Points – 4.9 (25th). Keep a close eye on the performance of the secondary the first few weeks. They gave away WR points last year, but have upgraded since.

2006 Stats: 2029 Rushing Yards Allowed, 3256 Passing Yards Allowed, 341 Points Allowed, 12 Interceptions, 14 Fumble Recoveries, 41 sacks, 0 safety

2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances: W9 - OAK (19 FP), W13 - @DEN (16 FP), W2 - ARI (13 FP) / W4 - @CHI (-6 FP), W15 – SF (-1 FP).

Startable Fantasy Weeks: 5 – W1 vs. TB, W2 @ ARI (Marginal. Did not perform well @ ARI last season), W9 @ CLE, W10 vs. SF (Marginal. Pending status of SF offense. Did not match up well with SF last season.), W14 vs. ARI

Weeks to Avoid Starting: 5 - W3 vs. CIN, W6 vs. NO, W7 vs. STL, W11 vs. CHI, W12 @ STL

Possible Bye Week filler for: CHI, MIA – W9 (@ CLE)

Teams with great bye-week matchups: SEA (@CLE), NYJ (vs. WAS), SD (@MIN), DEN (@DET)

Solid Combination with: NO. Also NYG

Fantasy Playoff Schedule: ARI, @CAR, BAL

Breakdown: The Seahawks finished 17th in fantasy scoring last season. They averaged 21.3 PPG (19th), 16th in passing YPG (203.5), and 22nd in rushing YPG (126.8). They also posted top 5 numbers in sacks (41). If you follow FBG’s SOS analysis, they have a pretty favorable easy-tough game ratio. Also add the fact that they focused primarily on upgrading the defense during the offseason, not to mention their first 3 draft picks in April (minus a first rounder). I see no reason why they can’t improve over last year’s numbers. One thing though, I see a pretty bad stretch of games during the season against CIN, SF (who they never did well against last year), PIT, NO, STLx2, and CHI. The good news is, many of those games are home games. I’m not in love with their fantasy playoff schedule, but I’ve seen worse.

Outlook: Due to the fact that I feel other teams have jumped up in front of them, they're starting a little further down the list than last year's finish. I’d be willing to overlook a late season slide like they suffered at the end of last season, if they had a few more favorable matchups. Having said that, there’s only a handful of truly elite offenses on that list, and Seattle is well worth giving a chance. There’s no reason you shouldn’t grab them in combination with another defense and play the matchups, even if they don’t turn into a solid DEF1 starter.

How they might surprise: Seattle was a weekly top ten ranked fantasy defense last year, but a disastrous fantasy playoff performance plummeted them down to 17th . Even a mediocre 4 fantasy points per game during the fantasy playoffs would’ve allowed them to finish the season ranked 10th . That same defense has suffered minimal losses, and even added some talent. It won’t take much for them to bump right up to posting top 10 numbers again, especially if they can force more turnovers.

Tier: 3

 

[LionsFan78]

19. Buffalo Bills

2006 Fantasy Finish: 9th

Defensive Losses: CB Nate Clements, LB London Fletcher, LB Takeo Spikes

Defensive Additions: DT Darwin Walker

Rookies: OLB Paul Posluszny, FS John Wendling, DE C.J. Ah You

Notes: The Bills impressed last year under first year DC Perry Fewell, who brought a new defense to the team, while starting a number of rookies as well. The young talent continues to come in this year. The pressure is on LB Paul Posluszny to help fill the void left by the loss of Fletcher and Spikes. DT Darwin Walker was productive in Philly, and hopefully he can improve this team’s rushing defense. While the Bills have gotten much younger the past few years, there’s some obvious talent that is now gone, and unproven players will now be forced to step up.

Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006: QB Points – 16.4 (26th), RB Points – 22.3 (5th), WR Points – 16.5 (t-28th), TE Points – 5.7 (t-16th).

2006 Stats: 2255 Rushing Yards Allowed, 3023 Passing Yards Allowed, 311 Points Allowed, 13 Interceptions, 11 Fumble Recoveries, 37 sacks, 0 safety

2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances: W2 - @MIA (18 FP), W14 - @NYJ (18 FP), W9 - GB (17 FP) / W3 - NYJ (-3 FP), W5 – @CHI (-2 FP), W16 – TEN (-3 FP).

Startable Fantasy Weeks: 9 – W4 vs. NYJ, W7 vs. BAL, W8 @ NYJ, W10 @ MIA, W12 @ JAX, W13 @ WAS, W14 vs. MIA, W15 @ CLE, W16 vs. NYG

Weeks to Avoid Starting: 6 – W1 vs. DEN, W2 @ PIT, W3 @ NE, W5 vs. DAL, W9 vs. CIN, W11 vs. NE

Teams with great bye-week matchups: JAX (vsHOU), MIA (@CLE), TB (vsTEN), GB (vsWAS), SD (vs. OAK)

Solid Combination with: ATL. See also SD, NO

Fantasy Playoff Schedule: MIA, @CLE, NYG

Breakdown: Buffalo came out of nowhere to finish 2006 as the 9th best fantasy defense. They averaged 140.9 rushing yards per game (28th) and 188.7 passing yards per game (7th). They also cracked the top ten by averaging 19.4 PPG. With 24 takeaways, they ranked in the bottom half of the league. They fared very well against some great teams last year, including 1 good performance against NE, and solid games @ IND and home vs. SD. They had a superb stretch between weeks 9-15, before choking against TEN week 16. They seemed to be a little better in away games last year, averaging 8.25 points, compared to 6 PPG in home games. Things aren’t looking great for this year though. First, they have a much tougher schedule. Even though I see potentially 9 startable games, there’s at least 6 dangerous games to be weary of as well.

Outlook: I’m not crazy about bumping down a top 10 fantasy unit from last season. Part of it has to do with other teams jumping ahead of them in my rankings. But, they’ve lost some good players this offseason and the schedule seems much tougher this year. If they can prove that their younger talent is up to the task, and that they’re capable of improving on their pedestrian numbers of takeways last year, then I’ll certainly look to bump them up a tier. For now, I see a good young defense with some startable games, a little inconsistent against divisional teams, but with a great fantasy playoff schedule. If you grab a top starting defense, I’d give them serious consideration as a combo/DEF2 with the possibility for another late season surge.

How they might surprise: It won’t take much to bump them back up into the top 10. The key is to see how some new starters handle their new roles. Their first half of the season is considerably tougher than the second half, so if they show some consistent production during that stretch, grab them up and ride them out the rest of the year. After the CIN game week 9, it’s no stretch to believe they can post stud numbers every week.

Tier: 3

 

[LionsFan78]

18. New Orleans Saints

2006 Fantasy Finish: 25th

Defensive Losses: LB Danny Clark

Defensive Additions: CB Jason David, LB Dhani Jones, FS Kevin Kaesviharn and WLB Brian Simmons

Rookies: CB Usama Young, CB David Jones, ILB Marvin Mitchell

Notes: Defensively, I believe they are headed in the right direction. Word is that DE Will Smith (10.5 sacks) should sign an extension. And DE Charles Grant should also remain with the team this year. FS Kevin Kaesviharn and WLB Brian Simmons were signed this offseason from Cincinnati, and both are said to be bringing leadership to the table. Kaesviharn is a solid pass defender, and Simmons could push for the starting spot at WLB. Not to mention, they just signed LB Dhani Jones. He could step in immediately as well. This defense still needs a playmaker at CB, a position in which they addressed by signing Jason David away from the Colts. They also drafted Usama Young in the 2nd round of the draft. The good news is, they lost absolutely nobody of value this offseason. I don’t believe Danny Clark even started last year, so he will not be missed.

Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006: QB Points – 19.0 (t-9th), RB Points – 15.8 (27th), WR Points – 20.6 (10th), TE Points – 5.7 (t-16th). Pretty stingy against opposing RBs last year.

2006 Stats: 2063 Rushing Yards Allowed, 2854 Passing Yards Allowed, 322 Points Allowed, 11 Interceptions, 8 Fumble Recoveries, 39 sacks, 0 safeties

2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances: W3 – vs. ATL (19 FP), W13 - vs. SF (14 FP) / W8 - BAL (-4), W10 – @PIT (-5 FP)

Startable Fantasy Weeks: 10 – W2 @ TB, W3 vs. TEN, W5 vs. CAR, W7 vs. ATL, W9 vs. JAX, W11 @ HOU, W12 @ CAR, W13 vs. TB, W14 @ ATL, W15 vs. ARI.

Weeks to Avoid Starting: 3 – W1 @ IND, W6 @ SEA, W10 vs. STL

Possible Bye Week filler for: San Diego – W7 (Home vs. ATL). Also Chicago – W9 (Home vs. JAX)

Teams with great bye-week matchups: MIN (vs. GB), ATL (vs. HOU), MIA (vs. OAK)

Solid Combination with: Absolutely SEA. Also a good combo with BUF

Fantasy Playoff Schedule: @ATL, ARI, PHI

Breakdown: The Saints really flirted around with fantasy success last season. They finished 25th last year in fantasy scoring, but don’t let the numbers fool you. Four times last year they scored negative points. One occasion was week 17. The other three were all shootouts (all 31 points or higher) with CIN, BAL and PIT – all solid teams, none of which are on the schedule this season. Even with all that, they still finished a respectable 13th in PPG (20.1). There was some bad news as well. They finished near the bottom in both fumble recoveries and interceptions. Is it really a stretch to imagine those numbers going up? My money would be on both numbers improving this year. The schedule looks surprisingly good for matchups.

Outlook: The Saints have an exceptionally high ceiling this year. There’s not many extremely easy matchups, but plenty of possibilities. I see 10 possible startable matchups this year, which is no stretch considering that was the exact number of games last year in which they scored 5+ points. I really don’t think it’s absurd to project them finishing much better this year. I think they’ve done enough to improve this defense, and possibly make them a contender. They also have a decent fantasy playoff schedule. No really bad teams, but there are 2 home games. They check in this year on my list of tier 3 teams, as a great sleeper pick with a favorable schedule.

How they might surprise: I think you’ll get an early chance to evaluate this team, so if you feel comfortable letting them hit the waiver wire and trying to grab them later, go for it. Game 1 is against Indy, and I’m itching to see how they perform. If they prove worthy against a powerful offense like Indy, then I’ve got no problem bumping them up a tier immediately.

Tier: 3

 

[Dope]

This is a very excellent post.



I love the way it's rolling out, too. The suspense on my two dynasty defenses is killing me. Especially since I thought one of them would have been mentioned already.

 

[ThePittbully]

18. New Orleans Saints

2006 Fantasy Finish: 25th

Defensive Losses: LB Danny Clark

Defensive Additions: LB Dhani Jones, FS Kevin Kaesviharn and WLB Brian Simmons

Rookies: CB Usama Young, CB David Jones, ILB Marvin Mitchell

Hey you forgot the addition of former Colts starting Cornerback Jason David. He will likely fill the hole as the #2 CB on the Saints D unless of the two rookies steps up big time. This aquisition may end up being the most important one of the offseason

 

[LionsFan78]

18. New Orleans Saints

2006 Fantasy Finish: 25th

Defensive Losses: LB Danny Clark

Defensive Additions: LB Dhani Jones, FS Kevin Kaesviharn and WLB Brian Simmons

Rookies: CB Usama Young, CB David Jones, ILB Marvin Mitchell

Hey you forgot the addition of former Colts starting Cornerback Jason David. He will likely fill the hole as the #2 CB on the Saints D unless of the two rookies steps up big time. This aquisition may end up being the most important one of the offseason

Thanks. That must've been before I started using the FA Tracker to list all acquisitions. Fixed.

 

[LionsFan78]

17. New York Jets

2006 Fantasy Finish: 14th

Defensive Losses: DE Dave Ball

Defensive Additions: DE Kenyon Coleman, DE David Bowens

Rookies: CB Darrelle Revis, ILB David Harris

Notes: Adding versatile Kenyon Coleman was the only free agency move really worth mentioning. They added two very talented defenders with their first two picks in the draft, one of which was first rounder Darrelle Revis, addresses one of their key needs on defense. Justin Miller just might be the best return man in the AFC, but he is facing some legal issues at the moment. If he plays, he’s capable of providing multiple special teams touchdowns.

Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006: QB Points – 17.0 (19th), RB Points – 20.6 (14th), WR Points – 19.0 (t-20th), TE Points – 5.7 (t-16th).

2006 Stats: 2082 Rushing Yards Allowed, 3222 Passing Yards Allowed, 295 Points Allowed, 16 Interceptions, 9 Fumble Recoveries, 35 sacks, 0 safety

2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances: W17 – OAK (15 FP), W3 - @BUF (12 FP), W13 - @GB (12 FP) / W5 - @JAC (-6 FP), W4 – IND (1 FP), W14 – BUF (1 FP).

Startable Fantasy Weeks: 9 – W2 @ BAL, W3 vs. MIA, W4 @ BUF, W5 @ NYG, W8 vs. BUF, W9 vs. WAS, W13 @ MIA, W14 vs. CLE, W16 @ TEN

Weeks to Avoid Starting: 6 – W1 vs. NE, W6 vs. PHI, W7 @ CIN, W12 @ DAL, W15 @ NE

Possible Bye Week filler for: Baltimore, Dallas or KC– W8 (vs. BUF)

Teams with great bye-week matchups: CAR (vs. ATL), MIA (vs. BUF), PIT (vs. CLE), JAX (@TEN), CHI (@OAK), ARI (vs. DET)

Solid Combination with: KC. See also NYG , CIN and MIN.

Fantasy Playoff Schedule: CLE, @NE, @TEN

Breakdown: The Jets finished 2006 as the 14th scoring fantasy defense, allowing 130.3 rushing yards per game (24th) and 201.4 passing yards per game (14th). They also ranked 6th allowing18.6 PPG. With only 25 takeaways, including 16 interceptions, that is a number that must improve this season. Their performances were fairly consistent last season, with bad games coming at the hands of tough opponents, such as Indy (1) and Jacksonville (-6). There were also a few surprisingly weak performances against weaker teams, like Buffalo (1) and Detroit (4). This season’s schedule looks a little tougher at a glance. Indy, Chicago and Jacksonville are not on the schedule, which is good since neither of those matchups were very favorable last season. But they do have good amount of questionable starts, 6 by my count. They have a pretty tough start to the season with NE, BAL, PHI and CIN during the first 7 weeks. Things do shape together nicely for the fantasy playoffs however, with CLE, NE and TEN on the schedule. I listed both matchups against NE as ‘avoid’ games, but remember, they averaged 7.5 points per game against NE last season. Pay attention to how each team is playing, and go ahead and plug them in if you have to.

Outlook: The Jets suffer a slight slide in my rankings from their 14th place finish. That’s due to both a tougher schedule (in my opinion) and the fact that other teams have leaped ahead of them. That’s not saying it’s ok to avoid them this year. There is plenty of room for them to pick up right where they left off. They haven’t lost a single quality player, are in their second year under Eric Mangini, and obviously focused on defense through the draft. Plus, with the exception of 1 game last season, they were pretty effective against most divisional teams they played. They should be just as good as last season, and with 2 favorable matchups in the fantasy playoffs, they’re worth rostering. They don’t quite crack my top two tiers, but they’re a solid sleeper team with the possibility of rising even higher.

How they might surprise: Every non-divisional team that they performed miserably against last year is off the schedule this year. Plus, they played well in 5 of 6 divisional matchups this year. Keep tabs on them early in the season, they just might prove to be worth of a start against most teams. They need to force more turnovers though, so be weary of those numbers. Regular season aside, nobody cares how good their fantasy defense was if they get booted from the playoffs, or miss them completely. Fantasy owners care about a team performing like a stud when they need them the most. They just might pay off as one of the top teams during the fantasy playoffs this season, even against NE.

Tier: 3

 

[LionsFan78]

16. Indianapolis Colts

2006 Fantasy Finish: 29th

Defensive Losses: LB Cato June, CB Nick Harper, DE Monte Reagor, CB Jason David, DT Corey Simon

Defensive Additions: None

Rookies: CB Daymeion Hughes, DT Quinn Pitcock, FS Brannon Condren, LB Clint Session, CB Michael Coe, DE Keyunta Dawson

Notes: Once again, the Super Bowl winner has been picked apart. June is gone. Harper was arguably their best CB, and has gone to division rival Tennessee. He was an excellent fit in the Tampa 2 system. They also lost CB Jason David. FS Bob Sanders was injured for much of last season, so his presence this season will improve this defense. I believe he had a huge hand in their improved defense during the NFL playoffs last season. DT Anthony McFarland has experience in Dungy’s system, and should have a solid impact on run support. 6 of 9 draft picks were spent on defense this year..

Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006: QB Points – 15.0 (t-29th), RB Points – 25.9 (1st), WR Points – 12.4 (32nd), TE Points – 6.0 (12th). Their passing defense was stellar last season, evident in the extremely low numbers posted by opposing QBs and WRs. Unless the situation changes, keep your RBs in your lineup against this unit.

2006 Stats: 2768 Rushing Yards Allowed, 2548 Passing Yards Allowed, 360 Points Allowed, 15 Interceptions, 11 Fumble Recoveries, 25 sacks, 0 safety

2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances: W9 - @NE (10 FP), W12 - vs. PHI (11 FP) / W14 - @ JAX (-4), W16 – @HOU (-1 FP)

Startable Fantasy Weeks: 9 – W2 @ TEN, W3 @ HOU, W5 vs. TB, W7 @ JAX, W8 @ CAR, W12 @ ATL, W13 vs. JAX, W15 @ OAK, W16 vs. HOU

Weeks to Avoid Starting: 4 – W1 vs. NO, W4 vs. DEN, W9 vs. NE, W10 vs. SD

Teams with great bye-week matchups: MIA (@CLE), JAX (vs. HOU), TB (vs. TEN), SD (vs. OAK)

Possible Bye Week filler for: PHI, MIN – Week 5 (Home vs. TB)

Solid Combination with: MIN (Although they share a tough week 9 matchup, I love thier playoff combo – SF, OAK and HOU combined). Also a great combination with CAR and PHI. Note: Indianapolis looks to be one of the best teams to pair a top end defense with.

Fantasy Playoff Schedule: @BAL, @OAK, HOU.

Breakdown: The Colts finished 2006 as the 29th ranked fantasy defense. They ranked dead last in rushing YPG (173), but 2nd in passing YPG (159.3). Even with such a strong showing for pass defense, they still managed a league worst 25 sacks. Those numbers simply have to improve. Most other teams in the top 10 in passing yards hovered around 40 sacks, so look for those stats to increase. They also managed a mere 15 interceptions, and with such a strong pass defense last season, those numbers have got to get better. I see some good matchups this season, plenty of reason to bump them up after their poor finish last season. I wouldn’t feel too comfortable drafting them as my only defense however. I doubt you can start them while playing NO, DEN, SD or NE (even though they posted 4 int’s last year against NE).

Outlook: Even though I don’t quite advise drafting them as a lone DEF1, you can put up a good argument for drafting them in combination with another defense. They matchup exceptionally well with many other teams. DO NOT sleep on them for their fantasy playoff schedule. They could conceivably be a top 2 tier team this year, but I’m a little worried about some of their personnel losses. Still, I have no choice but to bump them up considerably this season after their horrible finish last year as a top sleeper/combo defense. They also matchup very well with many other higher ranked defenses, moving them up to the top of my list of combo defenses.

How they might surprise: With 9 possibly favorable matchups, all Indy needs to do is prove consistent in their tougher matchups this year. They posted solid numbers last year against NE and PHI, so there's no reason to doubt they can do it. If they continue to post high scoring games, especially with few turnovers and sacks, there’s just not enough room for them to move up much higher. If their defense resembles their defense from the NFL playoffs last year, they have a shot.

Tier: 3

 

[LionsFan78]

15. Kansas City Chiefs

2006 Fantasy Finish: 10th

Defensive Losses: LB Kawika Mitchell, SS Sammy Knight

Defensive Additions: LB Donnie Edwards, LB Napolean Harris, DE Jimmy Wilkerson, DE Alfonso Boone, DT Ron Edwards

Rookies: DT Turk McBride, DT Demarcus Tyler,

Notes: Napolean Harris will replace Mitchell this season, likely fitting in better in KC’s Cover 2 scheme. DE Jared Allen will be missed at the start of the season, due to league suspension. Tamba Hali has a chance to improve on his solid 7.5 sack rookie season. 3rd year Derrick Johnson should see some steady improvement as well.

Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006: QB Points – 17.2 (t-17th), RB Points – 19.7 (19th), WR Points – 18.2 (24th), TE Points – 5.9 (14th).

2006 Stats: 1929 Rushing Yards Allowed, 3333 Passing Yards Allowed, 315 Points Allowed, 15 Interceptions, 15 Fumble Recoveries, 32 sacks, 0 safety

2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances: W4 - SF (25 FP), W16 - @OAK (18 FP) / W6 - @PIT (-4 FP)

Startable Fantasy Weeks: 8 – W1 @ HOU, W3 vs. MIN, W5 vs. JAX, W7 @ OAK, W9 vs. GB, W12 vs. OAK, W15 vs. TEN, W16 @ DET

Weeks to Avoid Starting: 7 – W2 @ CHI, W4 @ SD, W6 vs. CIN, W10 vs. DEN, W11 @ IND, W13 vs. SD, W14 @ DEN

Teams with great bye-week matchups: STL (vs. CLE), TEN (vs. OAK), PHI (@MIN), NYJ (vs. BUF), SD (vs. HOU), NE (vs. WAS)

Possible Bye Week filler for: SD, CAR – W7 (@ OAK), Also MIN, PHI – W5 (Home vs. JAX)

Solid Combination with: NYJ. A very solid CLE-TEN-TEN fantasy playoff combo as well.

Fantasy Playoff Schedule: @DEN, TEN, @DET

Breakdown: Many people either forget or don’t realize that KC actually finished 10th in fantasy scoring last year, right between Denver and Pittsburgh. They were middle of the pack in most defensive stats, although posted a respectable 19.7 PPG (11th best in NFL). Overall, I think they took a decent step forward. I see no reason why they can’t improve on last year’s numbers. I love the schedule this season, although they do post one of the higher number of dangerous matchups as well. They do have an extremely solid fantasy playoff schedule.

Outlook: Overall, they are a marginal pick IMO as a DEF1, as they do have some rough games this season (SD x2, IND, CIN, DEN x2). That is the lone reason for their slide in my rankings from their 10th place finish last season. There's just too many bad matchups along the way. Worst case scenario, draft them in combination with another solid defense, SD and CAR come to mind especially, and if they prove to be consistent throughout the season, let them ride it out. With half of their games very startable this year, including a great playoff schedule, they are right on top of my 3rd tier of sleeper/combo defenses this year, with a good shot at creeping up into tier 2.

How they might surprise: A tier 3 team by my definition is a solid sleeper pick, that also combines exceptionally well with another highly rated defense. KC fits this mold perfectly. They showed flashes of being a stud defense last season, even averaging 7.5 fantasy points per game vs. SD. If they can perform well in tougher matchups this season, while remaining consistent in their favorable matchups, forget combining KC with another team. Grab them and ride them out.

Tier: 3