Location Determined now- Gurley v. Gordon- what say you? (2 Viewers)

[Madden Curse]

Woodhead is a much bigger threat to Gordon's FF value than Mason is to Gurley's, once Gurley is 100% anyway. Sure, Gordon will get a ton of 1st and 2nd down carries right away, but beating out Woodhead for the passing down work isn't going to be easy. Gurley is vastly superior to Mason in every facet once he's healthy.

It's not just Woodhead vs. Mason. It's also McCoy vs. Fisher.

Jeff Fisher has no aversion to giving his top back 25-30 touches in a game.

Mike McCoy likes to rotate RBs and use multiple players at the position during the course of a game. Even in last night's press conference, just after trading up to get Gordon, he said that Gordon will fit in as part of a group of RBs who will all get snaps.

I agree, Fisher has to be stoked - Gurley is exactly the type of RB who he dreams of as the centerpiece of his offense, and he will lean on Gurley as much as possible.

Gurley was my 1.1 before the draft, and this landing spot cements it.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Well when Snead and Fisher are fired a year or 2 from now, I'm not sure how much their opinion matters. But I imagine if you asked them last year they thought Mason was the long-term answer.

No one thought he was the long term answer except FF owners that couldn't look past the compiled fantasy numbers.

Scouts are just as prone to group think as everyone else. I see him running through an awful lot of huge holes and I don't see an elite talent. I guess if you do, obviously you take Gurley and don't worry about it. Seems funny to me that most people don't even question how talented he really is because they've read so many people say that he's great and they believe it without question.

Maybe. But it's worth pointing out the Gurley had quite the fan club on here before draft talk ever started up.

 

[Shutout]

Everybody has to decide for themselves if Gurley is a Peterson-type talent or not (I think he is in the conversation).

Regardless of that, Fisher and Snead made it clear he is the RB of the future and they do view him as a generational talent. They won't rush him back for redraft purposes. But in dynasty, and health permitting, of course, hard to see Mason being an obstacle to Gurley being the the long term bell cow (15-20 carries).

I like Mason. But to me, Gurley is so far superior to him as a prospect at comparable stages of their career, they aren't even remotely in the same class. Anybody who doesn't already see that and agree, though, it is unlikely minds could be changed by anything you could possibly write about it.

Well when Snead and Fisher are fired a year or 2 from now, I'm not sure how much their opinion matters. But I imagine if you asked them last year they thought Mason was the long-term answer.

For me personally, I don't think Gurley is any more talented than Gordon. Scouts are just as prone to group think as everyone else. I see him running through an awful lot of huge holes and I don't see an elite talent. I guess if you do, obviously you take Gurley and don't worry about it. Seems funny to me that most people don't even question how talented he really is because they've read so many people say that he's great and they believe it without question.

Swords cut both ways. Maybe they say that because they have watched him play for a few years and, I don't know, because that's their job, they form the opinion.

Do you think it is some great coincidence that people who make their living doing this stuff aren't just saying "toss up between Gordon and Gurley" but instead are saying about Gurley (and only Gurley) that he is the best RB prospect to come along in a long while?

It's kind of funny to me that people who play fantasy sports would accuse people who do this as a livelihood to put bread on their table of group think. I mean, come on. If one of these two settings is more likely to be based on just talk and "want", which do you think it is?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

are these the same guys who do this for a living who used a first round pick on richardson twice?

gordon will bury gurley, and when he does I want you to come back here, bump this, and tell me I know better than everybody who does this for a living.

 

[Bob Magaw]

If Gurley is as good as advertised, he makes the team better and increases the chance they win and Fisher and Snead retain their jobs. Than their opinion matters a lot. This thread involves usage implications. If they are higher on him than you, and it would seem they are, Mason may not be a big obstacle to becoming a bell cow (certainly they never said about him they viewed him as a generational talent). Last year, Gurley hadn't torn his ACL, there could have been no way of knowing they would have had a shot at arguably the #1 overall player in the draft at #10 overall. Before the Lions took Calvin Johnson, they probably thought Rogers, Roy and Mike "BMW" Williams were the answer. But that didn't make Johnson a bad pick.

If that is what you see, it is understandable you wouldn't like the pick. I see it completely differently, so in that context, think it was a great pick. Sometimes groupthink is wrong. Sometimes it is right. Is groupthink intrinsically wrong (as groupthink) in thinking Usain Bolt is fast? Sometimes mavericks, renegades, contrarians and outliers are also wrong or right, obviously not intrinsically exempt, one can just as easily be different and wrong than common and wrong (and common and right as well as different and right). You still have to state your case as to WHY you are a detractor, just labeling an opinion as groupthink doesn't make it go away by fiat.

Just today, Casserly and Baldy were saying Gurley was the SOD (so far through day one). The #1 overall grade based purely on talent (QBs go higher for obvious reasons). Gruden said he was one of the top 2-3 best players in the draft. They could be wrong, but I don't think they formed their opinions by listening to and being unduly influenced by talking head groupthink. Casserly was a GM, Gruden a Super Bowl winning HC. They look at film. Based on that, Casserly was reminded of Edgerrin James and Ladainian Toimlinson, and they were blue chip, elite RB pedigree.

Gurley's talent is supported by stats. There was another from the same source, that he was second in the nation in broken tackles. The below was #1 by an elusiveness metric. He isn't some kind of vaporware hype prospect built up by and merely a product of talking head "groupthink".

http://www.rotoworld.com/recent/nfl/10288/todd-gurley

College Football Focus' Elusive Rating ranked Georgia RB Todd Gurley as easily the top back in the class.

The metric, according to CFF, "attempts to measure the success of a running back beyond his blockers by taking missed tackles forced and yards after contact into account against the player’s total touches." Perhaps more newsworthy is that Josh Robinson finished No. 2. Gurley had a stupid 37 forced missed tackles on 117 rushes against Power 5 teams.

Source: Pro Football Focus
Apr 23 - 5:26 PM

* Based on phrasing, it sounds like you have looked with your own eyes, after which you were unimpressed. Always unsurprising when human brains and sensory apparat, which have to filter thousands of impressions, come to often differences of interpretation and judgement. Nuf sed. But why assume the below, instead of crediting others with the same ability to come to their own (but different) conclusions, no different from you?

"Seems funny to me that most people don't even question how talented he really is because they've read so many people say that he's great and they believe it without question."

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

If Gurley is as good as advertised, he makes the team better and increases the chance they win and Fisher and Snead retain their jobs. Than their opinion matters a lot. This thread involves usage implications. If they are higher on him than you, and it would seem they are, Mason may not be a big obstacle to becoming a bell cow (certainly they never said about him they viewed him as a generational talent). Last year, Gurley hadn't torn his ACL, there could have been no way of knowing they would have had a shot at arguably the #1 overall player in the draft at #10 overall. Before the Lions took Calvin Johnson, they probably thought Rogers, Roy and Mike "BMW" Williams were the answer. But that didn't make Johnson a bad pick.

If that is what you see, it is understandable you wouldn't like the pick. I see it completely differently, so in that context, think it was a great pick. Sometimes groupthink is wrong. Sometimes it is right. Is groupthink intrinsically wrong (as groupthink) in thinking Usain Bolt is fast? Sometimes mavericks, renegades, contrarians and outliers are also wrong or right, obviously not intrinsically exempt, one can just as easily be different and wrong than common and wrong (and common and rigt as well as different and right). You still have to state your case as to WHY you are a detractor, just labeling an opinion as groupthink doesn't make it go away by fiat.

Just today, Casserly and Baldy were saying Gurley was the SOD (so far through day one). The #1 overall grade based purely on talent (QBs go higher for obvious reasons). Gruden said he was one of the top 2-3 best players in the draft. They could be wrong, but I don't think they formed their opinions by listening to and being unduly influenced by talking head groupthink. Casserly was a GM, Gruden a Super Bowl winning HC. They look at film. Based on that, Casserly was reminded of Edgerrin James and Ladainian Toimlinson, and they were blue chip, elite RB pedigree.

Gurley's talent is supported by stats. There was another from the same source, that he was second in the nation in broken tackles. The below was #1 by an elusiveness metric. He isn't some kind of vaporware hype prospect built up by and merely a product of talking head "groupthink".

http://www.rotoworld.com/recent/nfl/10288/todd-gurley

College Football Focus' Elusive Rating ranked Georgia RB Todd Gurley as easily the top back in the class.

The metric, according to CFF, "attempts to measure the success of a running back beyond his blockers by taking missed tackles forced and yards after contact into account against the player’s total touches." Perhaps more newsworthy is that Josh Robinson finished No. 2. Gurley had a stupid 37 forced missed tackles on 117 rushes against Power 5 teams.

Source: Pro Football Focus
Apr 23 - 5:26 PM

can you tell me who was second best behind lynch in touches per missed tackle in the nfl in 2013?

answer inside

 

[BassNBrew]

I like Gurley. With the intense defense in STL and the obvious disregard for a passing game...it's pretty clear they are modeling that team after Seattle. Gurley's value cannot be overstated.

Sure it can be overstated. He plays Seattle at Seattle week 16 this year. He's on my do not draft list. No a huge fan of the rest of the schedule either. Meanwhile Gordon will be playing the Raiders

 

[georg013]

are these the same guys who do this for a living who used a first round pick on richardson twice?

gordon will bury gurley, and when he does I want you to come back here, bump this, and tell me I know better than everybody who does this for a living.

Trent's ability is not the problem. His heart is. Sadly, that can't be measured.

 

[Bob Magaw]

If Gurley reminds others of Richardson, that could recommend avoiding him. Does he with you, eyeballing him on film, do you think they share a lot in common, RB trait/attribute-wise?

Other than Richardson's similar, borderline Olympic-caliber hurdler speed?

* Are superior broken tackle stats also a contra-indicator to success in your view, and a sign to avoid a RB prospect?

 

[MAC_32]

This year? Gordon.

I'm still leaning Gurley with rookie pick number one though. Situations have decreased the gap, but - talent.

 

[Pipes]

I don't understand those that say Gurley is clearly more talented that Gordon. Yes he runs with more power but Gordon's no slouch either and Gurley's the one coming off a major knee injury. I know acl's are almost like sprained ankles now a days but it's still a slight concern. I think Gordon's talent is being understated by many in this thread. Gordon consistently faced 8 and 9 man fronts last year as the Badgers passing game was embarrassing and Gordon still averaged 7.5 yards per carry.

 

[Chadstroma]

Casserly was a GM

And remember, a GM that was willing to go against conventional wisdom. Remember the whole Williams over Bush? It seemed the whole world was dismayed that he could possibly take Mario over Reggie. Group think certainly went one way and he went the other with his job on the line.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Gurley's talent is more intoxicating than Gordon's, but as someone who has watched an extremely talented RB wear sweatpants on the Chargers sideline more often than shoulder pads the last 4 years, durability is a talent that doesn't show up on tape.

 

[Chadstroma]

Gurley's talent is more intoxicating than Gordon's, but as someone who has watched an extremely talented RB wear sweatpants on the Chargers sideline more often than shoulder pads the last 4 years, durability is a talent that doesn't show up on tape.

Do either have durability concerns? Gurley had the ACL but is there further history? I don't recall hearing about Gordon having any major injuries.

 

[Khy]

Everybody has to decide for themselves if Gurley is a Peterson-type talent or not (I think he is in the conversation).

Regardless of that, Fisher and Snead made it clear he is the RB of the future and they do view him as a generational talent. They won't rush him back for redraft purposes. But in dynasty, and health permitting, of course, hard to see Mason being an obstacle to Gurley being the the long term bell cow (15-20 carries).

I like Mason. But to me, Gurley is so far superior to him as a prospect at comparable stages of their career, they aren't even remotely in the same class. Anybody who doesn't already see that and agree, though, it is unlikely minds could be changed by anything you could possibly write about it.

Well when Snead and Fisher are fired a year or 2 from now, I'm not sure how much their opinion matters. But I imagine if you asked them last year they thought Mason was the long-term answer.

For me personally, I don't think Gurley is any more talented than Gordon. Scouts are just as prone to group think as everyone else. I see him running through an awful lot of huge holes and I don't see an elite talent. I guess if you do, obviously you take Gurley and don't worry about it. Seems funny to me that most people don't even question how talented he really is because they've read so many people say that he's great and they believe it without question.

I would be SHOCKED if Fisher is out in the next 2 years. The Rams now have what some consider to be the best defense in the league, at the very least they're in the question for it. If they can come out of the gate hot and win say... 5 of their first 8? And have Gurley come in after that? They may be able to pull out a playoff seed or very close to one otherwise. Look at their schedule

Week 1: Seahawks - Loss

Week 2: Redskins - Win

Week 3: Steelers - Rough one, they could go either way but we'll say loss.

Week 4: Cardinals - Loss

Week 5: Packers - Loss

Week 6: BYE, rough star at 1-4. Lets see what happens

Week 7: Browns - Win

Week 8: 49ers - Win

Week 9: Vikings - Could go either way, but I think a win here. Gurley should be back by this point at the VERY latest.

Week 10: Bears - Win

Week 11: Ravens - Could go either way but I think they beat the Ravens. I just don't see how the Ravens put up points versus them

Week 12: Bengals - Bengals aren't that good, they just aren't, Gurley could run all over them. Win

Week 13: Cardinals - Win, who knows what this team will look like this time. Week 13 last year they were fielding guys off the street.

Week 14: Lions - Win, this defense is going to be a shell of itself, the running game is lackluster now and Calvin is losing a step slowly but surely.

Week 15: Bucs - Win

Week 16: Seahawks - Likely a loss, but if Gurley is healthy and the defense is healthy this could easily be a win. They somehow always manage one huge upset a year.

Week 17: 49ers - Win again

So, I'm giving them the benefit that Gurley is who a lot of us think he is.. if he is though I could easily seeing them land themselves in a 11-5 sitation. They start the season rough but man post-bye week they play literally nobody until Week 16 when they see the Seahawks again. If Fisher makes the playoffs this year it buys him quite a lot of time with the team before he's shipped off. But last year I was damn clsoe with my call that the Cards win the NFC West, it was almost impossible for them to lose at one point. Then Carson Palmer stepped on a landmine while carrying Mathieu and Ellington and they all died.

I'll call it in the air right now in this thread: Rams win the NFC West in 2015. Gurley comes out of the gate like a bat out of hell. He runs for an average of 120yards and 1TD after coming back from his ACL tear. And similar to Beckham coming in late last year wins the OROY award.

 

[Bob Magaw]

I think Gurley missed a few games (ankle?) in 2013?

Not sure the ACL constitutes being injury prone. If so, are players like Brady injury prone?

Technically, Peterson, before the torn ACL, also missed time with a broken collarbone his final season at Oklahoma. Maybe some scouts thought he was injury prone, too?

IMO, injuries are tough to predict in practice. Gurley has a violent style, but so did Peterson and has generally held up. So did Payton.

Other than a few RBs like McFadden and Stewart (and don't think Gurley deserves to be lumped in their class yet), what RBs around the league would we want to predict injuries for, this year, and in the future? What will they be, how severe, how long and when will they occur?

 

[Khy]

I think Gurley missed a few games (ankle?) in 2013?

Not sure the ACL constitutes being injury prone. If so, are players like Brady injury prone?

Technically, Peterson, before the torn ACL, also missed time with a broken collarbone his final season at Oklahoma. Maybe some scouts thought he was injury prone, too?

IMO, injuries are tough to predict in practice. Gurley has a violent style, but so did Peterson and has generally held up. So did Payton.

Other than a few RBs like McFadden and Stewart (and don't think Gurley deserves to be lumped in their class yet), what RBs around the league would we want to predict injuries for, this year, and in the future? What will they be, how severe, how long and when will they occur?

Peterson had a terrible injury history coming out of school... it's part of why he slipped a bit in the draft. I think a lot of this college vs pro injury history has to do with the conditioning programs at the next level. You know, that and being able to afford good food instead of trying to build lean muscle on a diet of ramen noodle and chicken patties from the cafeteria.

 

[Bob Magaw]

How many games did he miss prior to his junior season, the first two years?

Looks like he played 13 games as a Freshman and 11 as a Soph.

We already know about the collarbone his final year.

 

[ShamrockPride]

are these the same guys who do this for a living who used a first round pick on richardson twice?

gordon will bury gurley, and when he does I want you to come back here, bump this, and tell me I know better than everybody who does this for a living.

Ohh we shall bow down before thee oh Kool-Aid Boy The Great. For only you see the vision unclouded and know what layeth before us. Who but you could correctly predict a 50/50 chance?

 

[Warhogs]

For me I didn't see Gurley as a superior talent to Gordon before the draft. They were 1a and 1b. Now with the landing spots and Gurley coming off injury I can't blame anyone for putting Gordon ahead of Gurley. It's an interesting argument because there is no real clear answer at this time.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Gurley's talent is more intoxicating than Gordon's, but as someone who has watched an extremely talented RB wear sweatpants on the Chargers sideline more often than shoulder pads the last 4 years, durability is a talent that doesn't show up on tape.

Do either have durability concerns? Gurley had the ACL but is there further history? I don't recall hearing about Gordon having any major injuries.

think he had a pulled quad, or something like that, at some point, and maybe an ankle(?)

 

[Biabreakable]

I think Gurley missed a few games (ankle?) in 2013?

Not sure the ACL constitutes being injury prone. If so, are players like Brady injury prone?

Technically, Peterson, before the torn ACL, also missed time with a broken collarbone his final season at Oklahoma. Maybe some scouts thought he was injury prone, too?

IMO, injuries are tough to predict in practice. Gurley has a violent style, but so did Peterson and has generally held up. So did Payton.

Other than a few RBs like McFadden and Stewart (and don't think Gurley deserves to be lumped in their class yet), what RBs around the league would we want to predict injuries for, this year, and in the future? What will they be, how severe, how long and when will they occur?

Gurley had an ankle injury that caused him to miss games the prior season. A player recovering from an ACL injury has an additional 2% risk of having another ACL injury the following year based on a study I linked in the Gurley thread.

Is such a small chance of re-injury a serious concern? I don't think so. But it is still more risk than for a player not in their first year of recovery from an ACL injury.

Peterson missed games with a broken foot in the season prior to the one where he broke his colar bone.

Broken bones heal without the additional risk of re-injury unlike ligaments which have greater risk of becoming cascade type injuries.

 

[BassNBrew]

Everybody has to decide for themselves if Gurley is a Peterson-type talent or not (I think he is in the conversation).

Regardless of that, Fisher and Snead made it clear he is the RB of the future and they do view him as a generational talent. They won't rush him back for redraft purposes. But in dynasty, and health permitting, of course, hard to see Mason being an obstacle to Gurley being the the long term bell cow (15-20 carries).

I like Mason. But to me, Gurley is so far superior to him as a prospect at comparable stages of their career, they aren't even remotely in the same class. Anybody who doesn't already see that and agree, though, it is unlikely minds could be changed by anything you could possibly write about it.

Well when Snead and Fisher are fired a year or 2 from now, I'm not sure how much their opinion matters. But I imagine if you asked them last year they thought Mason was the long-term answer.

For me personally, I don't think Gurley is any more talented than Gordon. Scouts are just as prone to group think as everyone else. I see him running through an awful lot of huge holes and I don't see an elite talent. I guess if you do, obviously you take Gurley and don't worry about it. Seems funny to me that most people don't even question how talented he really is because they've read so many people say that he's great and they believe it without question.

I would be SHOCKED if Fisher is out in the next 2 years. The Rams now have what some consider to be the best defense in the league, at the very least they're in the question for it. If they can come out of the gate hot and win say... 5 of their first 8? And have Gurley come in after that? They may be able to pull out a playoff seed or very close to one otherwise. Look at their schedule

Week 1: Seahawks - Loss

Week 2: Redskins - Win

Week 3: Steelers - Rough one, they could go either way but we'll say loss.

Week 4: Cardinals - Loss

Week 5: Packers - Loss

Week 6: BYE, rough star at 1-4. Lets see what happens

Week 7: Browns - Win

Week 8: 49ers - Win

Week 9: Vikings - Could go either way, but I think a win here. Gurley should be back by this point at the VERY latest.

Week 10: Bears - Win

Week 11: Ravens - Could go either way but I think they beat the Ravens. I just don't see how the Ravens put up points versus them

Week 12: Bengals - Bengals aren't that good, they just aren't, Gurley could run all over them. Win

Week 13: Cardinals - Win, who knows what this team will look like this time. Week 13 last year they were fielding guys off the street.

Week 14: Lions - Win, this defense is going to be a shell of itself, the running game is lackluster now and Calvin is losing a step slowly but surely.

Week 15: Bucs - Win

Week 16: Seahawks - Likely a loss, but if Gurley is healthy and the defense is healthy this could easily be a win. They somehow always manage one huge upset a year.

Week 17: 49ers - Win again

So, I'm giving them the benefit that Gurley is who a lot of us think he is.. if he is though I could easily seeing them land themselves in a 11-5 sitation. They start the season rough but man post-bye week they play literally nobody until Week 16 when they see the Seahawks again. If Fisher makes the playoffs this year it buys him quite a lot of time with the team before he's shipped off. But last year I was damn clsoe with my call that the Cards win the NFC West, it was almost impossible for them to lose at one point. Then Carson Palmer stepped on a landmine while carrying Mathieu and Ellington and they all died.

I'll call it in the air right now in this thread: Rams win the NFC West in 2015. Gurley comes out of the gate like a bat out of hell. He runs for an average of 120yards and 1TD after coming back from his ACL tear. And similar to Beckham coming in late last year wins the OROY award.

After starting 1-4, it's extremely unlikely they finish at 11-5.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

How many games did he miss prior to his junior season, the first two years?

Looks like he played 13 games as a Freshman and 11 as a Soph.

We already know about the collarbone his final year.

Injuries were Peterson's biggest red flag coming out of college and we're debated as nauseum here on these forums. I believe he had some kind of injury every year at Oklahoma.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

After starting 1-4, it's extremely unlikely they finish at 11-5.

At least without Tebow.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Even prior to the ACL injury, concerns over Gurley's durability lingered. In 2013, he missed three games and chunks of others due to nagging aches and pains that seemed to never go away. It started with a pop to the thigh in the opener against Clemson and was compounded by an ankle sprain against LSU in Week 5. The dings derailed a potential Heisman run, bogged Georgia down, resulting in a disappointing 8-5 season, and led to some public disagreement between coach Mark Richt and offensive coordinator Mike Bobo over how the back should be handled during 2014 spring practice.

"I hear that, but no one has been more frustrated by my injuries than me," Gurley says. "I hope that what NFL teams see from me is that I never stop pushing. It takes a lot of work to come back from being hurt. And it takes a lot of patience. Me not having my knee examined at the combine or not working out there or at Georgia pro day, no one's ducking anything. The teams know that. We talk about that in our interviews when I visit teams."

 

[Bob Magaw]

How many games did he miss prior to his junior season, the first two years?

Looks like he played 13 games as a Freshman and 11 as a Soph.

We already know about the collarbone his final year.

Injuries were Peterson's biggest red flag coming out of college and we're debated as nauseum here on these forums. I believe he had some kind of injury every year at Oklahoma.

If it has been debated ad nauseum, hopefully somebody can weigh in on how many games he missed prior to his third season.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Someone say the rams are going to be 11 n 5 ???? Wtf

 

[Mingooch]

Gurley is my call.

 

[tommyGunZ]

That entire post is a quote from a piece - I can never figure out how to get the quote buttons on my mobile.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Even prior to the ACL injury, concerns over Gurley's durability lingered. In 2013, he missed three games and chunks of others due to nagging aches and pains that seemed to never go away. It started with a pop to the thigh in the opener against Clemson and was compounded by an ankle sprain against LSU in Week 5. The dings derailed a potential Heisman run, bogged Georgia down, resulting in a disappointing 8-5 season, and led to some public disagreement between coach Mark Richt and offensive coordinator Mike Bobo over how the back should be handled during 2014 spring practice.

"I hear that, but no one has been more frustrated by my injuries than me," Gurley says. "I hope that what NFL teams see from me is that I never stop pushing. It takes a lot of work to come back from being hurt. And it takes a lot of patience. Me not having my knee examined at the combine or not working out there or at Georgia pro day, no one's ducking anything. The teams know that. We talk about that in our interviews when I visit teams."

Good post.

Maybe Murray could be a proxy here. He led the NFL last year and Gurley has done nothing so far, so can't compare NFL body of work when the rookie has none.

But regarding Murray's injury history (not even checking extending back to Oklahoma, just in DAL).

In four seasons (2 X Pro Bowler, 1 X All Pro), he played 16 games in '14 for the first time in his career. Games missed in his first three seasons (3, 6 and 2). So 11 games combined, slightly more than 3.5 DNP average per season from '11-'13 (or nearly a quarter season missed average his first three years).

Despite this, Kelly paid handsomely for him, knowing his injury history. If Gurley misses huge chunks of time and whole seasons, bad pick. If he misses an occasional game or two, not necessarily.

 

[BassNBrew]

If we say Gurley is injury prone, can't we say Gordon is another Wisconsin system guy?

 

[tommyGunZ]

If we say Gurley is injury prone, can't we say Gordon is another Wisconsin system guy?

It's definitely one of the biggest concerns I have re: Gordon.

 

[Tau837]

Gordon will likely be a committee RB, at least in the near term. His weaknesses include pass blocking and pass catching, and the Chargers have Woodhead, who excels at pass catching, and Brown, who excels at pass blocking. Even though I would like it if Brown never takes another snap, McCoy has been a RBBC coach and has already said all of them (plus possibly Oliver) will still get snaps.

IMO the best hope in the near term for Gordon is that he can play like Mathews did in the second half of 2013. Mathews shared the touches with Woodhead during that stretch, and he was RB5 and Woodhead was RB28 in weeks 10-17 that season (FBG scoring, non-PPR).

Longer term, hopefully Gordon can stay healthier than Mathews did and hopefully he can improve at pass blocking and catching and add to his share of the RBBC as the others age and run out of contract years.

As for the thread question, IMO Gurley is easily the choice for dynasty. But Gordon should still be at least a top 20 dynasty RB, maybe creeping into the lower part of the top 10.

 

[Tau837]

If we say Gurley is injury prone, can't we say Gordon is another Wisconsin system guy?

It's definitely one of the biggest concerns I have re: Gordon.

 

[Xue]

In today's NFL, drafting a RB in the top 20 is akin to drafting a QB in the top 5. You don't do that unless you plan on playing them often and early.

In dynasty, nothing changes on the location. If anything, I like Gurley MORE now. A lot of us maybe haven't let it sink in on us because it wasn't being popularly mocked but when you know Jeff Fisher and what he likes to do, this is ideal. He will run Gurley's legs off and he is setting up the perfect formula for winning in the division. You play outstanding d and you control clock and you make your yards count. You protect your QB and Gurley is very good at that. You take pressure off with someone who can catch out of the backfield and Gurley can do that. It makes so much sense, I can only think the reason it wasn't popularly mocked was because of the influence of what fantasy communities WANT to happen (we want him in Dallas or some clear cut starving team).

The Niners are a shell of their former selves, The Seahawks have lost their Defensive masterminds (which doesn't mean everything but it DOES mean something) and the Cards have lost both players and their defensive heads. Just as we thought the west was a joke a few years ago, it can change again. I'm not going to NOT draft a dynasty Rb based on the division he plays in. Bell plays against the formidable Browns, Bengals, and Ravens Defenses and he does ok.

Gordon's situation IS nice..Very Nice. But I think he's actually more likely to be limited. I think he's a two-down guy early on because the Chargers need protection for Rivers and Woodhead is likely as good or better at catching the ball. That is two areas Gordon has to improve on to be a 3 down guy.

Branden Oliver caught 33 passes on 1st and 2nd Downs last year. In 2013, Woodhead caught 59 on 1st and 2nd Downs

Being able to catch passes and being a good pass blocker are two different things. Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy are horrible pass blockers, yet are among the leaders in receptions.

 

[BassNBrew]

Gordon will likely be a committee RB, at least in the near term. His weaknesses include pass blocking and pass catching, and the Chargers have Woodhead, who excels at pass catching, and Brown, who excels at pass blocking. Even though I would like it if Brown never takes another snap, McCoy has been a RBBC coach and has already said all of them (plus possibly Oliver) will still get snaps.

IMO the best hope in the near term for Gordon is that he can play like Mathews did in the second half of 2013. Mathews shared the touches with Woodhead during that stretch, and he was RB5 and Woodhead was RB28 in weeks 10-17 that season (FBG scoring, non-PPR).

Longer term, hopefully Gordon can stay healthier than Mathews did and hopefully he can improve at pass blocking and catching and add to his share of the RBBC as the others age and run out of contract years.

As for the thread question, IMO Gurley is easily the choice for dynasty. But Gordon should still be at least a top 20 dynasty RB, maybe creeping into the lower part of the top 10.

So are you saying Woodhead will be a strong ppr best ball pick late?

 

[Tau837]

Gordon will likely be a committee RB, at least in the near term. His weaknesses include pass blocking and pass catching, and the Chargers have Woodhead, who excels at pass catching, and Brown, who excels at pass blocking. Even though I would like it if Brown never takes another snap, McCoy has been a RBBC coach and has already said all of them (plus possibly Oliver) will still get snaps.

IMO the best hope in the near term for Gordon is that he can play like Mathews did in the second half of 2013. Mathews shared the touches with Woodhead during that stretch, and he was RB5 and Woodhead was RB28 in weeks 10-17 that season (FBG scoring, non-PPR).

Longer term, hopefully Gordon can stay healthier than Mathews did and hopefully he can improve at pass blocking and catching and add to his share of the RBBC as the others age and run out of contract years.

As for the thread question, IMO Gurley is easily the choice for dynasty. But Gordon should still be at least a top 20 dynasty RB, maybe creeping into the lower part of the top 10.

So are you saying Woodhead will be a strong ppr best ball pick late?

I think so assuming he is healthy.

 

[tommyGunZ]

At this time in the NFL, what back isn't part of a committee?

 

[Alex P Keaton]

At this time in the NFL, what back isn't part of a committee?

Z Stacy

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

At this time in the NFL, what back isn't part of a committee?

Maurice Jones-Drew.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Dammit.

 

[ghostguy123]

So now Gurley is injury prone.

So was Peterson coming out. So was Gore a few years back and has been healthy ever since. So was Murray, then has more carries than anyone ever last year. So were lots of other guys, until they weren't.

Lot of other guys were safe picks, then got hurt.

The injury prone label gets thrown around like sweet nothings.

 

[Shutout]

Gurley's talent is more intoxicating than Gordon's, but as someone who has watched an extremely talented RB wear sweatpants on the Chargers sideline more often than shoulder pads the last 4 years, durability is a talent that doesn't show up on tape.

Do either have durability concerns? Gurley had the ACL but is there further history? I don't recall hearing about Gordon having any major injuries.

think he had a pulled quad, or something like that, at some point, and maybe an ankle(?)

Groin tear

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

At this time in the NFL, what back isn't part of a committee?

Z Stacy

awesome

 

[Madden Curse]

At this time in the NFL, what back isn't part of a committee?

Z Stacy

awesome

Truth hurts but it's also hilarious.

 

[BigTex]

Let's not forget -

Gurley will have 6 games per year playing against the Arizona, Seattle, and San Fran run defenses.

You assume that these teams will stay this good each year. Wasn't it just 4 or 5 years ago the West was the worst division in football?

Isn't that the average lifespan of a RB in today's NFL?

If you believe Gurley is average. Which I don't.

Tex

 

[Penguin]

Gurley for me and it's a pretty easy decision. Adding Rob Havenstein and Jamon Brown didn't hurt either.

 

[Andrew74]

I have the 1.01 and no question - I'm taking Gurley.

 

[Pipes]

If we say Gurley is injury prone, can't we say Gordon is another Wisconsin system guy?

It's definitely one of the biggest concerns I have re: Gordon.

Don't be concerned about that at all. Just look at the numbers. Gordon's ypc blows guys like Dayne and Ball's out of the water. Gordon is way more talented than those guys.