looking for good post-hype year guys (1 Viewer)

[pollardsvision]

despite not being a great evaluator of baseball talent, i've generally found success in the draft by looking for guys that either:

1-have generally been reliable, but are coming off a bad year with a good excuse

or

2-were expected to break-out, but the break-out came a year later than expected

so, i'm trying to find some good candidates for this season and was wondering what you thought of some of these guys or if anybody has some other good candidates

Catchers

ramon hernandez

josh bard

1B:

Paul Konerko-

Albert Pujols-

Travis Hafner

Conor Jackson

Adam LaRoche

Chris Duncan

Richie Sexson

Nick Johnson

Dan Johnson

2B

Rickie Weeks

Felipe Lopez

Freddy Sanchez

Howie Kendrick

SS

Michael Young

Rafael Furcal

Miguel Tejada

Bobby Crosby

Yuniesky Betancourt

Ryan Theriot

3B

Ryan Zimmerman

Alex Gordon

Scott Rolen

Kevin Kouzmanoff

Andy LaRoche

OF

ManRam

Berkman

Abreu

Jason Bay

Vernon Wells

Andruw Jones

Mark Teahen

Jeff Franceour

Ryan Church

Corey Patterson

Adam Lind

Carlos Quentin

Chris Duffy

SP

Brett Myers

Oswalt

Halladay

Liriano

Matt Cain

Boof Bonser

Dave Bush

Chris Capuano

Rich Harden

Scott Olsen

Mike Pelfrey

Vincente Padilla

just wondering which of these guys (or others) you see having major bounce-back/break-out years that will offer some great value in drafts.

 

[Knightro]

Bard is a great fantasy catcher - can hit for average and does enough in HR and RBI. Most catchers can hit with power or average, not both. Bard should come rather cheap. He just went in the 18th round of our NL mock draft.

Hafner and Jackson are good targets at the corner

Alex Gordon will be much better this year - tough for anyone to skip AAA and be successful in their first season

Berkman is always solid and has 1B eligibility

P: stay away from Bush - he sucks, consistently

 

[guru_007]

despite not being a great evaluator of baseball talent, i've generally found success in the draft by looking for guys that either:1-have generally been reliable, but are coming off a bad year with a good excuseor2-were expected to break-out, but the break-out came a year later than expectedso, i'm trying to find some good candidates for this season and was wondering what you thought of some of these guys or if anybody has some other good candidatesSPBrett MyersOswaltHalladayLirianoMatt CainBoof BonserDave BushChris CapuanoRich HardenScott OlsenMike PelfreyVincente Padilla

I agree with your theory for sure, and I've found that I've had much better success picking out pitchers than hitters. I'm not sure if it's because I generally prefer pitching to hitting, or perhaps most other owners target hitters so we're all going after the same bunch.Of the guys you mentioned above, I'll hit on a fewRoy Oswalt is perhaps my favorite pitcher in the game today to watch. He is a twig out there and fires bb's to the catcher and has a knee buckling curve. However....he's not someone I'd target on draft day for a few reasons. First, most owners are aware of his past success and figure last year to be more of a fluke. So he'll be at least rightfully valued, if not over valued by most everyone. Next, he is so slight of build he is a good injury candidate every year. Last year he was nicked up a bit all year long, which strongly contributed to his sub-par year. But, he has pitched over 200 innings in 5 of the last 6 years. He has a lot of mileage on him. With the Astros starting rotation so woefully awful behind him, he will be expected to save the bullpen when he goes out there again this year. I'm not very optimistic that he makes it through the whole year, and further more has an above average year. I'm not saying if the guy falls to me late, I'll pass on him, I just don't expect him too, and I'd let someone else bit on him.Roy Halladay is not exactly a guy coming off an off year, he did finish 5th in AL Cy Young race. He is another guy that is always a good injury candidate too, and when he's healthy he throws a lot of innings. But, unlike Oswalt, his K numbers have fallen off pretty significantly. From 2000-2005, his K/IP ratio was about .75. In '06-'07, it's been around .60. That's a bit of a warning sign, particularly with a pitcher getting older and having thrown a good deal. Perhaps he's gotten craftier as he's gotten older, and relied more on his power sinker to get hitters out to save his arm/shoulder. But, I'd prefer not to take my chances with a crafty pitcher in the AL East usually. I'd probably opt for AJ Burnett instead (yes, huge injury risk, but overpowering when healthy)Again, both of the Roy's are not pitchers I'm fully advocating avoiding at all costs, I just don't think they are great candidates to come back to Cy Young type form and plugged in as your ace. They are fine candidates for #2 type starters, but more than likely #3 or #4 type starters.Liriano and Harden are two guys that both are big question marks. There is no way I'm going to sit here and tell you I'm a orthopedic surgeon and can accurately predict how they are going to bounce back from their recent injuries. I know they are both immensely talented, and I'd take a flier on one or the other very late. For the most part, I generally let other owners waste an early pick on these guys. Sometimes it works out great. Most times it does not.Matt Cain is certainly a guy to target on draft day. Typical great pitcher on a horrible team. But it's not like last year he was all that bad. He has a better WHIP, a much better ERA, strikeout numbers were only nominally down. The only number that really plummeted were wins, which is the hardest to accurately predict anyway. Draft with full confidence, imo, but you certainly will not be alone in targeting him.Dave Bush is pretty avoidable. He's a guy that's usually around on the garbage heap during the year. Grab him when he has a few favorable starts, as he pitches on a good team and can get you some cheap wins. But he's not exactly a guy I want in my rotation all year long.You're a better man than me if Vicente Padilla is on your pitching radar. Teams hit better than .260 against him, he pitches on an awful team. He's on the wrong side of 30. Just a bad bet here.Boof Bonser to me seems like a younger Padilla. But at least he's younger, so there may be hope. Everytime I watched him pitch, I saw BP for the other team. Teams average almost .280 against him for his young career (.286 last year). But, he can strike people out, and again he is young. I can't necessarily suggest going after him, but if you like to gamble....Now here's where you say, great...how about you try giving someone to take a chance with. Hmmm, I'm not so sure I want to throw out too many names just yet :( You know who had a very nice year last year before he got injured? Jason Bergmann. You know who has had some nice numbers when healthy and maybe, just maybe will be back to full health this year? John Patterson. Sure, they're both on the Nats....but someone's got to draft a few Nationals, no?g'luck

 

[guru_007]

oh yeah, one hitter I think who has a shot of a big year is Chris Young on the Snakes. Yeah, he had good power numbers and some steals last year, but that .237 average and .295 OBP was a killer. I think he gets more comfortable this year and gets on base a lot more.

 

[trogg78]

My favorites are A Jones, F Lopez and Miguel Tejada.

 

[ooofffaaa]

My favorites are A Jones, F Lopez and Miguel Tejada.

This is good to know with our draft just around the corner.

 

[Pnishthm]

despite not being a great evaluator of baseball talent, i've generally found success in the draft by looking for guys that either:1-have generally been reliable, but are coming off a bad year with a good excuseor2-were expected to break-out, but the break-out came a year later than expectedso, i'm trying to find some good candidates for this season and was wondering what you thought of some of these guys or if anybody has some other good candidatesCatchers ramon hernandezjosh bard1Baul Konerko-Albert Pujols-Travis HafnerConor JacksonAdam LaRocheChris DuncanRichie SexsonNick JohnsonDan Johnson2BRickie WeeksFelipe LopezFreddy SanchezHowie KendrickSSMichael YoungRafael FurcalMiguel TejadaBobby Crosby Yuniesky Betancourt Ryan Theriot 3BRyan ZimmermanAlex GordonScott RolenKevin KouzmanoffAndy LaRocheOFManRamBerkmanAbreuJason BayVernon WellsAndruw JonesMark TeahenJeff FranceourRyan ChurchCorey PattersonAdam LindCarlos QuentinChris DuffySPBrett MyersOswaltHalladayLirianoMatt CainBoof BonserDave BushChris CapuanoRich HardenScott OlsenMike PelfreyVincente Padillajust wondering which of these guys (or others) you see having major bounce-back/break-out years that will offer some great value in drafts.

A few guys that I like for their value are1. R. Furcal- He had a lingering ankle injury last season which really hampered him. If he looks healthy during ST he could be a steal (pun intended) being drafted in round 7 or later.2. M. Tejada- The guy is a gamer and while he may not go out and hit 35 HRs hitting in such a small ballpark he should reach 25 with little problem. I also really like his situation. The Astros really upgraded their offense this off season and it's actually pretty scarey. Pitchers will have to be concerned with M. Bourne and K. Matsui who will be a threat to steal any time they are on base. They also cannot pitch around Tejada because he has Berkamn, Lee and Pence hitting behind him. Imagine all the fastballs this guy is gonna see. When you know a fastball is coming, anyone can hit. If this steriod crap doesn't get in his way, he could have a big season.3. R. Zimmerman- This could be the year this guy finally breaks into his own. He's still only 23 but he offers high upside. The negative is the team around him is not that good but the positive is that the Nats have a new ballpark and the fences will be closer. I would feel comfortable with him as my starting 3B especially where he is being drafted (round 8 or higher).4. One OF that I like to really bounce back that is not on your list is J. Dye. His numbers from last season will cause him to drop like a ton of bricks on drafted day. But Dye struggled thru injuries early on but he bounced back big time post all star break with a .298 BA and 16 dingers. The Sox also seemed to improve a lifeless offense during the offseason. He couldbe nice value.5. R. Oswalt- While is numbers seem to be declining the past few seasons (if you want to call going from a 2.98 ERA to a 3.18 ERA declining), he's still posting pretty solid numbers. Like I said a few lines up, I really like the Astros lineup this year and he should get much better run support. If he can win 15 and 14 games (previous two years) with as bad an O as the Stros had, he could be looking at 18 to 20 wins this season. He's been going around the 8th round on average and that could be a steal.6. F. Liriano- I for one will be keeping a VERY close eye on him during ST. If he looks sharpe, I will be drafting him. His stuff is just electric. You have to still be carefull as the Twins look to be rebuilding and may shut him down late in the season. They also may not score a bunch of runs and his win total might only be around 11 or 12. But with him being drafted in double digit rounds, I am likely to take that chance on a guy that could end up being a top 10 or even top 5 pitcher.7. M. Cain- I am a huge fan of this guy and he is only going to get better. This will be his third year as a full time starter and that is when good pitchers generally come into their own. Cain's problem last year was the early innings where he struggled with his command. If he can figure out a way to start off strong, he will be dominant. The major problem for Cain is that the Giants may have one of the worst offenses in the majors (EVER)! If you draft a few high win pitchers first then Cain may be your man as his win total of 7 last season is causing a huge drop in his ADP. 8. R. Harden- Harden says he feels better than he has ever felt right now. Keep an eye on him during spring and if he comes out healthy look to draft him if he lasts as long as he has been during mocks. I've been scooping him up in the mid to late teens and although the chance of him staying healthy for a season are slim, I figure as dominant as he is, if I can get his numbers for even half a season with a pick in the teens it could be worth it. Good luck!

 

[MAC_32]

Those you mentioned who I believe are being under valued

Josh Bard - if I miss on sleeper C's Geovany Soto and JR Towles I'll wait and snag Bard later, his avg won't hurt you and his power is ok

Travis Hafner - especially if he is 1B eligible in your league

Adam LaRoche - although he is notorious for sucking it up in April, let someone else draft him late and look to buy low in May or pick him up off waivers

Rickie Weeks - finally healthy in the 2nd half of 07 he began to show signs of his potential, he could be a breakout stud in 08

Rafael Furcal - avg should bounce back up, prime SB candidate, even if his power is gone he's worth where he's going [pick 80 range]

Ryan Zimmerman - healthy again and has survived the sophomore slump, if you miss on one of the big guns and don't want to wait for later round value he's the play

Kevin Kouzmanoff - trended upward in the 2nd half 07, I wouldn't expect those numbers extrapolated over a full season but it should be a sign of continued progression

Vernon Wells - of the Jason Bay, Andruw Jones, Vernon Wells crowd he's the one I'm betting on to have the best chance of bouncing back

Brett Myers - he never really tailed off, just got moved to the pen. He pitched well when healthy, I don't understand why his stock has fallen.

Liriano - classic risk reward, picks like him in the 10th round could be what vaults you to a championship

Others I'll add not on the list:

Joey Votto, 1B Cincy

Hank Blalock, 3B Texas

Matt Kemp, OF Dodgers

Rocco Baldelli, OF Tampa

Pedro Martinez, SP Mets

 

[pollardsvision]

this is good stuff. thanks guys.

to me, these are the kind of guys that win leagues. last year, i didn't want to use any of my 1st few picks on pitchers, so in every draft, i watched johan, capenter, and zambrano go off the board saw jake peavy fall in my lap consistently in the 4th-5th round. given his age and previous dominance, i'm not seeing a very similar situation happening with someone else this year.

one guy i forgot to mention is felix hernandez. this guy was on fire early last year, would it be a surprise to see this stud finish as a top 3 pitcher?

can zambrano go from being over-rated last year to being way under-rated this year (or is his workload too much)?

hell, the best candidate of all may be daisuke. i never got him last year b/c i didn't want to pay for the hype. now the hype is gone and he could just be good old-fashioned good production at a good price.

and of course, there's always value to be found for the person who figures out which one of (if any) sheets, harden or burnett can stay healthy.

 

[trogg78]

My favorites are A Jones, F Lopez and Miguel Tejada.

This is good to know with our draft just around the corner.

...but you have no idea where I would try and take them.

 

[Pnishthm]

Those you mentioned who I believe are being under valuedJosh Bard - if I miss on sleeper C's Geovany Soto and JR Towles I'll wait and snag Bard later, his avg won't hurt you and his power is okTravis Hafner - especially if he is 1B eligible in your leagueAdam LaRoche - although he is notorious for sucking it up in April, let someone else draft him late and look to buy low in May or pick him up off waiversRickie Weeks - finally healthy in the 2nd half of 07 he began to show signs of his potential, he could be a breakout stud in 08Rafael Furcal - avg should bounce back up, prime SB candidate, even if his power is gone he's worth where he's going [pick 80 range]Ryan Zimmerman - healthy again and has survived the sophomore slump, if you miss on one of the big guns and don't want to wait for later round value he's the playKevin Kouzmanoff - trended upward in the 2nd half 07, I wouldn't expect those numbers extrapolated over a full season but it should be a sign of continued progressionVernon Wells - of the Jason Bay, Andruw Jones, Vernon Wells crowd he's the one I'm betting on to have the best chance of bouncing backBrett Myers - he never really tailed off, just got moved to the pen. He pitched well when healthy, I don't understand why his stock has fallen.Liriano - classic risk reward, picks like him in the 10th round could be what vaults you to a championshipOthers I'll add not on the list:Joey Votto, 1B CincyHank Blalock, 3B TexasMatt Kemp, OF DodgersRocco Baldelli, OF TampaPedro Martinez, SP Mets

I thought Bard was one of the few clutch hitters the Pads had last season and was surprised when they traded for Barrett and forced him into the lineup. The problem you could have with Bard this year is Barrett still stealing too much playing time. Last season could have also been just one of those fluke years for barrett and if he bounces back to play like he has in the past, he could even take over as the #1 catchers for the Pads. Remember that Barrett did hit .307 the previous season. I'd stear clear of both for now especially if you are looking at either one being your #1 catcher.

 

[pollardsvision]

oh, and does anyone have any input on ryan garko?

this guy was great at times last year.

can he take a big, adrian gonzalez-type of step forward this year?

is v-mart going to eat into alot of his 1B AB's?

 

[Pnishthm]

this is good stuff. thanks guys.to me, these are the kind of guys that win leagues. last year, i didn't want to use any of my 1st few picks on pitchers, so in every draft, i watched johan, capenter, and zambrano go off the board saw jake peavy fall in my lap consistently in the 4th-5th round. given his age and previous dominance, i'm not seeing a very similar situation happening with someone else this year.one guy i forgot to mention is felix hernandez. this guy was on fire early last year, would it be a surprise to see this stud finish as a top 3 pitcher? can zambrano go from being over-rated last year to being way under-rated this year (or is his workload too much)?hell, the best candidate of all may be daisuke. i never got him last year b/c i didn't want to pay for the hype. now the hype is gone and he could just be good old-fashioned good production at a good price.and of course, there's always value to be found for the person who figures out which one of (if any) sheets, harden or burnett can stay healthy.

I normally don't draft my first pitcher until around round 7 and I've still had one of the top pitching staffs in my league every season. When looking for sleepers, I always look towards WHIP. I don't care about previous ERA from young guys, if they have consistantly had a good WHIP in the minors and the pros I feel they have a great shot at being a solid pitcher. Rich Hill is one that comes to mind as he posted an ERA of 3.92 but a WHIP of just 1.19. If he's not letting guys get on base, my thought is that eventually a less percentage of base runners are going to score and his ERA will get drastically lower. He also averaged almost a K per inning and the Cubbies offense could be improved enough where his win total could reach 15. Hill is one of my favorite sleepers this year. Last year my staff looked like C. Young, A. Harrange, R. Hill, J. Maine, M. Caine, O. Perez (I also traded for J. Lackey midseason). You see a trend that I like young pitchers around their 3rd or 4th year that typically have a high K rate and a low WHIP.

 

[Pnishthm]

oh, and does anyone have any input on ryan garko?this guy was great at times last year. can he take a big, adrian gonzalez-type of step forward this year?is v-mart going to eat into alot of his 1B AB's?

I'm actually pretty high on Garko. I don't know if that's the Indians fan in me or because of how good he is. I am a huge believer in at bats and I'm not sure if he will get enough for me to feel comfortable with him as my starting 1B, but I would not hesitate to use him as my CI. He should get plenty of chances to drive in over 100 runs.

 

[MAC_32]

this is good stuff. thanks guys.to me, these are the kind of guys that win leagues. last year, i didn't want to use any of my 1st few picks on pitchers, so in every draft, i watched johan, capenter, and zambrano go off the board saw jake peavy fall in my lap consistently in the 4th-5th round. given his age and previous dominance, i'm not seeing a very similar situation happening with someone else this year.one guy i forgot to mention is felix hernandez. this guy was on fire early last year, would it be a surprise to see this stud finish as a top 3 pitcher? can zambrano go from being over-rated last year to being way under-rated this year (or is his workload too much)?hell, the best candidate of all may be daisuke. i never got him last year b/c i didn't want to pay for the hype. now the hype is gone and he could just be good old-fashioned good production at a good price.and of course, there's always value to be found for the person who figures out which one of (if any) sheets, harden or burnett can stay healthy.

-Zambrano's still going in the 60-70 range, he's still going too early.-Dice K's ADP hasn't fallen too much, I think he was in the high 80's last year and he's only dropped a round or two this year. That said ADP withstanding I like him more this year than last year. However, I prefer taking a shot on Lince K in that spot than Dice K.-Of Sheets, Harden, and Burnett I like Burnett the most. With an improved staff in Toronto maybe they'll be less tempted to let Burnett hurl 120-130 pitches/game

 

[MAC_32]

I thought Bard was one of the few clutch hitters the Pads had last season and was surprised when they traded for Barrett and forced him into the lineup. The problem you could have with Bard this year is Barrett still stealing too much playing time. Last season could have also been just one of those fluke years for barrett and if he bounces back to play like he has in the past, he could even take over as the #1 catchers for the Pads. Remember that Barrett did hit .307 the previous season. I'd stear clear of both for now especially if you are looking at either one being your #1 catcher.

If you're relying on either to be your #1 you have some serious problems at C. I was talking about a 25th round flier on Bard, in which case the minimal risk is certainly worth the reward. If he's stuck in a platoon, drop him and add someone who is not.

 

[MAC_32]

oh, and does anyone have any input on ryan garko?this guy was great at times last year. can he take a big, adrian gonzalez-type of step forward this year?is v-mart going to eat into alot of his 1B AB's?

I'd expect Garko to play at least 5 times/week in 08. The potential's there for a breakout, but I don't see him hitting above 275 with consistency ever and 30 HR's looks to be a longshot this season. it could happen, but I wouldn't be betting on it. I'd rather take Votto a few rounds earlier and reap the 5 cat goodness than wait on Garko.

 

[MAC_32]

this is good stuff. thanks guys.to me, these are the kind of guys that win leagues. last year, i didn't want to use any of my 1st few picks on pitchers, so in every draft, i watched johan, capenter, and zambrano go off the board saw jake peavy fall in my lap consistently in the 4th-5th round. given his age and previous dominance, i'm not seeing a very similar situation happening with someone else this year.one guy i forgot to mention is felix hernandez. this guy was on fire early last year, would it be a surprise to see this stud finish as a top 3 pitcher? can zambrano go from being over-rated last year to being way under-rated this year (or is his workload too much)?hell, the best candidate of all may be daisuke. i never got him last year b/c i didn't want to pay for the hype. now the hype is gone and he could just be good old-fashioned good production at a good price.and of course, there's always value to be found for the person who figures out which one of (if any) sheets, harden or burnett can stay healthy.

I normally don't draft my first pitcher until around round 7 and I've still had one of the top pitching staffs in my league every season. When looking for sleepers, I always look towards WHIP. I don't care about previous ERA from young guys, if they have consistantly had a good WHIP in the minors and the pros I feel they have a great shot at being a solid pitcher. Rich Hill is one that comes to mind as he posted an ERA of 3.92 but a WHIP of just 1.19. If he's not letting guys get on base, my thought is that eventually a less percentage of base runners are going to score and his ERA will get drastically lower. He also averaged almost a K per inning and the Cubbies offense could be improved enough where his win total could reach 15. Hill is one of my favorite sleepers this year. Last year my staff looked like C. Young, A. Harrange, R. Hill, J. Maine, M. Caine, O. Perez (I also traded for J. Lackey midseason). You see a trend that I like young pitchers around their 3rd or 4th year that typically have a high K rate and a low WHIP.

While I agree with you on the WHIP theory, something to keep in mind in regards to Hill is his high HR rate. That's why his ERA is unsually high compared to others with a similar WHIP/K rate.

 

[Pnishthm]

this is good stuff. thanks guys.to me, these are the kind of guys that win leagues. last year, i didn't want to use any of my 1st few picks on pitchers, so in every draft, i watched johan, capenter, and zambrano go off the board saw jake peavy fall in my lap consistently in the 4th-5th round. given his age and previous dominance, i'm not seeing a very similar situation happening with someone else this year.one guy i forgot to mention is felix hernandez. this guy was on fire early last year, would it be a surprise to see this stud finish as a top 3 pitcher? can zambrano go from being over-rated last year to being way under-rated this year (or is his workload too much)?hell, the best candidate of all may be daisuke. i never got him last year b/c i didn't want to pay for the hype. now the hype is gone and he could just be good old-fashioned good production at a good price.and of course, there's always value to be found for the person who figures out which one of (if any) sheets, harden or burnett can stay healthy.

I normally don't draft my first pitcher until around round 7 and I've still had one of the top pitching staffs in my league every season. When looking for sleepers, I always look towards WHIP. I don't care about previous ERA from young guys, if they have consistantly had a good WHIP in the minors and the pros I feel they have a great shot at being a solid pitcher. Rich Hill is one that comes to mind as he posted an ERA of 3.92 but a WHIP of just 1.19. If he's not letting guys get on base, my thought is that eventually a less percentage of base runners are going to score and his ERA will get drastically lower. He also averaged almost a K per inning and the Cubbies offense could be improved enough where his win total could reach 15. Hill is one of my favorite sleepers this year. Last year my staff looked like C. Young, A. Harrange, R. Hill, J. Maine, M. Caine, O. Perez (I also traded for J. Lackey midseason). You see a trend that I like young pitchers around their 3rd or 4th year that typically have a high K rate and a low WHIP.

While I agree with you on the WHIP theory, something to keep in mind in regards to Hill is his high HR rate. That's why his ERA is unsually high compared to others with a similar WHIP/K rate.

Wouldn't you think that more experience would lead to less HRs given up? I rmember a stretch where Hill seemed to forget about his changeup and was strictly fastaball, curve. Hitters sat back on one or the other. When he started mixing in his changeup, he had much better success.

 

[MAC_32]

this is good stuff. thanks guys.to me, these are the kind of guys that win leagues. last year, i didn't want to use any of my 1st few picks on pitchers, so in every draft, i watched johan, capenter, and zambrano go off the board saw jake peavy fall in my lap consistently in the 4th-5th round. given his age and previous dominance, i'm not seeing a very similar situation happening with someone else this year.one guy i forgot to mention is felix hernandez. this guy was on fire early last year, would it be a surprise to see this stud finish as a top 3 pitcher? can zambrano go from being over-rated last year to being way under-rated this year (or is his workload too much)?hell, the best candidate of all may be daisuke. i never got him last year b/c i didn't want to pay for the hype. now the hype is gone and he could just be good old-fashioned good production at a good price.and of course, there's always value to be found for the person who figures out which one of (if any) sheets, harden or burnett can stay healthy.

I normally don't draft my first pitcher until around round 7 and I've still had one of the top pitching staffs in my league every season. When looking for sleepers, I always look towards WHIP. I don't care about previous ERA from young guys, if they have consistantly had a good WHIP in the minors and the pros I feel they have a great shot at being a solid pitcher. Rich Hill is one that comes to mind as he posted an ERA of 3.92 but a WHIP of just 1.19. If he's not letting guys get on base, my thought is that eventually a less percentage of base runners are going to score and his ERA will get drastically lower. He also averaged almost a K per inning and the Cubbies offense could be improved enough where his win total could reach 15. Hill is one of my favorite sleepers this year. Last year my staff looked like C. Young, A. Harrange, R. Hill, J. Maine, M. Caine, O. Perez (I also traded for J. Lackey midseason). You see a trend that I like young pitchers around their 3rd or 4th year that typically have a high K rate and a low WHIP.

While I agree with you on the WHIP theory, something to keep in mind in regards to Hill is his high HR rate. That's why his ERA is unsually high compared to others with a similar WHIP/K rate.

Wouldn't you think that more experience would lead to less HRs given up? I rmember a stretch where Hill seemed to forget about his changeup and was strictly fastaball, curve. Hitters sat back on one or the other. When he started mixing in his changeup, he had much better success.

Thank you for the optimistic rationale I'll use if I miss the boat on Lince K, Myers, Liriano, and Shields and end up selecting Hill around pick 100-120. Don't get me wrong, I like Hill; just offering a counter. I think the other guys' upside is much greater while their expectations are similar. Unless others let Hill fall to me a round after I select Liriano methinks he won't end up on any of my teams, especially seeing as how Liriano's likely to end up on every single one of my squads.

 

[Pnishthm]

this is good stuff. thanks guys.to me, these are the kind of guys that win leagues. last year, i didn't want to use any of my 1st few picks on pitchers, so in every draft, i watched johan, capenter, and zambrano go off the board saw jake peavy fall in my lap consistently in the 4th-5th round. given his age and previous dominance, i'm not seeing a very similar situation happening with someone else this year.one guy i forgot to mention is felix hernandez. this guy was on fire early last year, would it be a surprise to see this stud finish as a top 3 pitcher? can zambrano go from being over-rated last year to being way under-rated this year (or is his workload too much)?hell, the best candidate of all may be daisuke. i never got him last year b/c i didn't want to pay for the hype. now the hype is gone and he could just be good old-fashioned good production at a good price.and of course, there's always value to be found for the person who figures out which one of (if any) sheets, harden or burnett can stay healthy.

I normally don't draft my first pitcher until around round 7 and I've still had one of the top pitching staffs in my league every season. When looking for sleepers, I always look towards WHIP. I don't care about previous ERA from young guys, if they have consistantly had a good WHIP in the minors and the pros I feel they have a great shot at being a solid pitcher. Rich Hill is one that comes to mind as he posted an ERA of 3.92 but a WHIP of just 1.19. If he's not letting guys get on base, my thought is that eventually a less percentage of base runners are going to score and his ERA will get drastically lower. He also averaged almost a K per inning and the Cubbies offense could be improved enough where his win total could reach 15. Hill is one of my favorite sleepers this year. Last year my staff looked like C. Young, A. Harrange, R. Hill, J. Maine, M. Caine, O. Perez (I also traded for J. Lackey midseason). You see a trend that I like young pitchers around their 3rd or 4th year that typically have a high K rate and a low WHIP.

While I agree with you on the WHIP theory, something to keep in mind in regards to Hill is his high HR rate. That's why his ERA is unsually high compared to others with a similar WHIP/K rate.

Wouldn't you think that more experience would lead to less HRs given up? I rmember a stretch where Hill seemed to forget about his changeup and was strictly fastaball, curve. Hitters sat back on one or the other. When he started mixing in his changeup, he had much better success.

Thank you for the optimistic rationale I'll use if I miss the boat on Lince K, Myers, Liriano, and Shields and end up selecting Hill around pick 100-120. Don't get me wrong, I like Hill; just offering a counter. I think the other guys' upside is much greater while their expectations are similar. Unless others let Hill fall to me a round after I select Liriano methinks he won't end up on any of my teams, especially seeing as how Liriano's likely to end up on every single one of my squads.

As I wrote in an earlier post, I'm a huge Liriano fan and if he looks strong in ST I too will be looking to draft him. As for the other guys, I'm not sold on any of them (especially over Hill). Lincecum has some very good stuff but I think he's still a year away from being consistently solid. Add to that the Giants pathetic offense and I think he's in the same boat as M. Cain and will have trouble cracking 11 or 12 wins. Myers I've never been big on him. He has a lifetime 4.34 ERA with an average WHIP of 1.35. His best ERA ever has been 3.72 and he pitches in a hitter friendly park. Now Shields is interesting but I just can't get over thinking how I'd have the Devil Rays......errrrrr Rays 2nd best pitcher. Normally a rule that I follow is that if I have a close choice between an NL pitcher or an AL pitcher I chose the NL (for obvious reasons). This is what I love about fantasy sports...how each guy has different opinions about each player.

 

[Your Mother]

despite not being a great evaluator of baseball talent, i've generally found success in the draft by looking for guys that either:1-have generally been reliable, but are coming off a bad year with a good excuseor2-were expected to break-out, but the break-out came a year later than expectedso, i'm trying to find some good candidates for this season and was wondering what you thought of some of these guys or if anybody has some other good candidatesCatchers ramon hernandezjosh bard1Baul Konerko-Albert Pujols-Travis HafnerConor JacksonAdam LaRocheChris DuncanRichie SexsonNick JohnsonDan Johnson2BRickie WeeksFelipe LopezFreddy SanchezHowie KendrickSSMichael YoungRafael FurcalMiguel TejadaBobby Crosby Yuniesky Betancourt Ryan Theriot 3BRyan ZimmermanAlex GordonScott RolenKevin KouzmanoffAndy LaRocheOFManRamBerkmanAbreuJason BayVernon WellsAndruw JonesMark TeahenJeff FranceourRyan ChurchCorey PattersonAdam LindCarlos QuentinChris DuffySPBrett MyersOswaltHalladayLirianoMatt CainBoof BonserDave BushChris CapuanoRich HardenScott OlsenMike PelfreyVincente Padillajust wondering which of these guys (or others) you see having major bounce-back/break-out years that will offer some great value in drafts.

I like Myers and a flyer on Harden out of the list you posted, maybe Padilla too. Not crazy at all about Cain or Bush or Halladay or Oswalt.