Los Angeles Chargers: Running Back Focus (1 Viewer)

[King of the Jungle]

I felt like this may deserve it’s own thread as there seemingly are quite a few outcomes. With Harbaugh and Roman coming to town there is a big opportunity for FF value at the running back position given the question marks.

• Gus Edwards - The definition of solid but not spectacular nearly his whole career. Good goal line back who will probably be the battering ram in the red zone, offers minimal in the passing game.
• JK Dobbins - I am biased as I loved his game when he was drafted. Injuries have derailed his career, but he is still young and imo the most talented back on the roster “if healthy” (big if). Even if healthy, one has to wonder what percentage he is “back”.
• Kimani Vidal - I love his tape. No nonsense runner with good burst and seems to have good potential as a pass catcher. But, small school prospect so hard to judge his ability versus that level of competition.
• Isaiah Spiller - Coming out, seems to have had a better reputation amongst FFers compared to NFLers. Has looked fairly lethargic when given opportunities so far and I would be shocked if he was a factor.

There is a gem here somewhere for this coming year imo, which way are you leaning and why?

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Gus Edwards - The definition of solid but not spectacular nearly his whole career. Good goal line back who will probably be the battering ram in the red zone, offers minimal in the passing game.

While they all have their chances to do well in this offense, Gus seems like the best bet. Dobbins has the most talent but injuries can take a while to come back from. The other 2 are wild cards.

Edwards strength at the goaline won't be compromised by Lamar anymore. Even with Lamar he still scored 13 tds last year.

 

[houston]

I very much expect a committee approach with many guys sharing carries each week.

Watch them realize that it’s a passing league and use their pretty solid QB way more than we expect.

 

[msudaisy26]

I very much expect a committee approach with many guys sharing carries each week.

Watch them realize that it’s a passing league and use their pretty solid QB way more than we expect.

This is where I am at. The only way someone runs away with this job is if it is Vidal. Edwards isn't a versatile enough back, Dobbins has shown he can't handle a lead back role and Spiller hasn't shown really anything to this point.

Vidal is the the only unknown and even then his odds of totally dominating this backfired are extremely slim.

 

[TheWinz]

Gus Edwards WILL have at least 200 rushes and 10 TD's
JK Dobbins will never get healthy

 

[Max Power]

Is Josh Kelley no longer part of the conversation?

 

[JohnnyU]

Is Josh Kelley no longer part of the conversation?

Who?…….jk

 

[msudaisy26]

Is Josh Kelley no longer part of the conversation?

I don't see why he would be. He had a chance last season and completely stunk.

 

[travdogg]

Is Josh Kelley no longer part of the conversation?

I don't see why he would be. He had a chance last season and completely stunk.

He's also not on the roster.

 

[msudaisy26]

Is Josh Kelley no longer part of the conversation?

I don't see why he would be. He had a chance last season and completely stunk.

He's also not on the roster.

Bold strategy. Let's see how it works out!

 

[Max Power]

Is Josh Kelley no longer part of the conversation?

I don't see why he would be. He had a chance last season and completely stunk.

He's also not on the roster.

My bad. MFL still has LAC next to his name.

 

[Biabreakable]

Gus Edwards - The definition of solid but not spectacular nearly his whole career. Good goal line back who will probably be the battering ram in the red zone, offers minimal in the passing game.

While they all have their chances to do well in this offense, Gus seems like the best bet. Dobbins has the most talent but injuries can take a while to come back from. The other 2 are wild cards.

Edwards strength at the goaline won't be compromised by Lamar anymore. Even with Lamar he still scored 13 tds last year.

On the flip side of this defenses will not have to worry about Herbert running the ball and Edwards wont have as good of opportunity on a per touch basis.

Edwards could see a full ypc less with the Chargers because of this.

Despite all the talk about Harbaugh and Roman wanting to run the ball they wont be able to do that and be forced to throw more.

I love Gus but I thibk you are fooling yourself if you dont think Lamar contributed to it.

 

[GPS]

Gus Edwards - The definition of solid but not spectacular nearly his whole career. Good goal line back who will probably be the battering ram in the red zone, offers minimal in the passing game.

While they all have their chances to do well in this offense, Gus seems like the best bet. Dobbins has the most talent but injuries can take a while to come back from. The other 2 are wild cards.

Edwards strength at the goaline won't be compromised by Lamar anymore. Even with Lamar he still scored 13 tds last year.

On the flip side of this defenses will not have to worry about Herbert running the ball and Edwards wont have as good of opportunity on a per touch basis.

Edwards could see a full ypc less with the Chargers because of this.

Despite all the talk about Harbaugh and Roman wanting to run the ball they wont be able to do that and be forced to throw more.

I love Gus but I thibk you are fooling yourself if you dont think Lamar contributed to it.

I have to imagine they know all this. If all you want to do is run, that doesn't seem like the stable of RBs to inspire confidence. I get the feeling this offense contains some surprises to answer some of the unknowns. Either that or they're simply punting with a more complex rebuild in mind.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Gus Edwards - The definition of solid but not spectacular nearly his whole career. Good goal line back who will probably be the battering ram in the red zone, offers minimal in the passing game.

While they all have their chances to do well in this offense, Gus seems like the best bet. Dobbins has the most talent but injuries can take a while to come back from. The other 2 are wild cards.

Edwards strength at the goaline won't be compromised by Lamar anymore. Even with Lamar he still scored 13 tds last year.

On the flip side of this defenses will not have to worry about Herbert running the ball and Edwards wont have as good of opportunity on a per touch basis.

Edwards could see a full ypc less with the Chargers because of this.

Despite all the talk about Harbaugh and Roman wanting to run the ball they wont be able to do that and be forced to throw more.

I love Gus but I thibk you are fooling yourself if you dont think Lamar contributed to it.

Right now he is going as the RB41 in half ppr, per FP. I just expect him to outperform that draft cost.

 

[TheWinz]

On the flip side of this defenses will not have to worry about Herbert running the ball and Edwards wont have as good of opportunity on a per touch basis.

Edwards could see a full ypc less with the Chargers because of this.

Despite all the talk about Harbaugh and Roman wanting to run the ball they wont be able to do that and be forced to throw more.

I love Gus but I thibk you are fooling yourself if you dont think Lamar contributed to it.

I think we all know a QB who is a threat to run themselves increases a RB's YPC. I'm fine with lowering his YPC, but 456 carries was the league average last year. I think we can all agree LAC will have more than the 431 carries they had last year, so who gets those carries? They vacated 286 of those carries when Ekeler and Kelley left. I guess maybe I am overvaluing Gus because I think Dobbins is dead meat. Or maybe I am undervaluing Vidal, but I think Gus will eclipse 200 carries easily. If he does, his current ADP is too low.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

How many games are the Chargers winning this year after Harbaugh gutted or dismantled a lot of what was there last season on offense?
I'm not saying there isn't anything to look at here but when I am selecting a RB, I tend to want ones that are on explosive offenses or teams likely to win a lot of games
When teams are ahead in the 2nd Half, many times they want to chew up the clock and RBs get more touches.
When teams are down anywhere from 7-10 points now they all but abandon the run

I see the Chargers as more of a 7-10 type team this year with a bright future but I don't see them competing with the CHiefs right now
I do not have the Chargers as a possible playoff team
Next year there will be a stud RB on this team that isn't here right now, mark that one down

But we're dealing in 2024, I might take a Chargers RB as an RB4 on my roster for bye weeks and maybe a spot start but I'm not planning my draft around it
This is a year to watch and learn and see what they are planning for the future IMHO
Gus Edwards is not going to scare a lot of other teams, just my opinion

Is nobody going to even acknowledge he basically took a couple Vet RBs from his brothers team and is renting them for the season so he can overhaul the locker room
Harbaugh is in charge and anyone that doesn't follow him lock and step is a goner if they weren't released already

Sorry to be a wet rag but someone has to be honest about what the Chargers have at the skill positions going into 2024

 

[menobrown]

Lamar helps his RB's of course but Gus has been pretty good in his games without Lamar as well. By my count 77/426 in full games without Lamar playing. Fairly small sample, not a ton of carries in many games, TD's were down, but he did well with what he got and minimum it's encouraging. Want to hear a crazy take? Back in March the Athletics Randy Mueller wrote a piece before FA ranking the top Free Agents. I can't recall exactly where he had Gus, I think player 49, but the key was he had Gus rated as the third best FA RB ,behind only Barkley and Jacobs. So ahead of Henry, Swift, Pollard, Singletary, Moss, etc,etc. Randy is an ex-NFL exec of the year who worked in the league a long time but he's got a surprisingly lot of off the wall takes. This seems like one of those, just passing it on and fwiw I recall in his writeup him saying he was surprised he put Gus that high before he started his film review.

Anyay as it pertains to Gus I think he'd be a lock to surprass 200 carries if he can stay healthy but his career high is 198 so don't think they'd want to get to carried away but I could easily see 15 a game and getting him to 255 for the season but still a lot of carries available.

With Dobbins I keep hearing comments saying stuff like "if he can stay healthy". This is different then that to me because this is not about him showing he can stay healthy this is about being healthy in the first place or healthy enough to return to pre-injury form and that's a big difference between hoping someone does not get hurt. In ways it's silly to ask something like "show me the RB who effectively returned after having both an ACL and achilles surgeries" because it's so rare to have both in your career. But just the same, I can't think of anyone who did it.

Maybe I need to be higher on Vidal but I got this feeling an addition will be made and that addition will end up being the #2 to Gus. Not an expensive addition or a trade, but if someone like a Samaje Perine or Jeff Wilson type gets cut, that kind of addition.

 

[Mitchie]

How many games are the Chargers winning this year after Harbaugh gutted or dismantled a lot of what was there last season on offense?
I'm not saying there isn't anything to look at here but when I am selecting a RB, I tend to want ones that are on explosive offenses or teams likely to win a lot of games
When teams are ahead in the 2nd Half, many times they want to chew up the clock and RBs get more touches.
When teams are down anywhere from 7-10 points now they all but abandon the run

I see the Chargers as more of a 7-10 type team this year with a bright future but I don't see them competing with the CHiefs right now
I do not have the Chargers as a possible playoff team
Next year there will be a stud RB on this team that isn't here right now, mark that one down

But we're dealing in 2024, I might take a Chargers RB as an RB4 on my roster for bye weeks and maybe a spot start but I'm not planning my draft around it
This is a year to watch and learn and see what they are planning for the future IMHO
Gus Edwards is not going to scare a lot of other teams, just my opinion

Is nobody going to even acknowledge he basically took a couple Vet RBs from his brothers team and is renting them for the season so he can overhaul the locker room
Harbaugh is in charge and anyone that doesn't follow him lock and step is a goner if they weren't released already

Sorry to be a wet rag but someone has to be honest about what the Chargers have at the skill positions going into 2024

9 over/under from vegas

 

[Ministry of Pain]

How many games are the Chargers winning this year after Harbaugh gutted or dismantled a lot of what was there last season on offense?
I'm not saying there isn't anything to look at here but when I am selecting a RB, I tend to want ones that are on explosive offenses or teams likely to win a lot of games
When teams are ahead in the 2nd Half, many times they want to chew up the clock and RBs get more touches.
When teams are down anywhere from 7-10 points now they all but abandon the run

I see the Chargers as more of a 7-10 type team this year with a bright future but I don't see them competing with the CHiefs right now
I do not have the Chargers as a possible playoff team
Next year there will be a stud RB on this team that isn't here right now, mark that one down

But we're dealing in 2024, I might take a Chargers RB as an RB4 on my roster for bye weeks and maybe a spot start but I'm not planning my draft around it
This is a year to watch and learn and see what they are planning for the future IMHO
Gus Edwards is not going to scare a lot of other teams, just my opinion

Is nobody going to even acknowledge he basically took a couple Vet RBs from his brothers team and is renting them for the season so he can overhaul the locker room
Harbaugh is in charge and anyone that doesn't follow him lock and step is a goner if they weren't released already

Sorry to be a wet rag but someone has to be honest about what the Chargers have at the skill positions going into 2024

9 over/under from vegas

Possibly the worst starting trio at WR in the NFL
Josh Palmer
Quentin Johnson
Ladd McConkey

I'm sure Harbaugh will have the OL playing well, they can't sustain any injuries there or things really will go South for them in a hurry
People can like Dobbins and Edwards all they want but they don't strike fear into opposing defenses

And I'm not even discussing Herbert, it would seem like Harbaugh is going to reprogram him for better or for worse
I'll take the under although with 17 weeks, maybe they get off to a rough start and right the ship 2nd half of the season building towards 2025, 9-8 in that scenario perhaps
They're not a Playoff team

 

[Biabreakable]

Gus Edwards - The definition of solid but not spectacular nearly his whole career. Good goal line back who will probably be the battering ram in the red zone, offers minimal in the passing game.

While they all have their chances to do well in this offense, Gus seems like the best bet. Dobbins has the most talent but injuries can take a while to come back from. The other 2 are wild cards.

Edwards strength at the goaline won't be compromised by Lamar anymore. Even with Lamar he still scored 13 tds last year.

On the flip side of this defenses will not have to worry about Herbert running the ball and Edwards wont have as good of opportunity on a per touch basis.

Edwards could see a full ypc less with the Chargers because of this.

Despite all the talk about Harbaugh and Roman wanting to run the ball they wont be able to do that and be forced to throw more.

I love Gus but I thibk you are fooling yourself if you dont think Lamar contributed to it.

Right now he is going as the RB41 in half ppr, per FP. I just expect him to outperform that draft cost.

I like that price as well.

I do expext Edwards to get 200+ opportunities.

I just dont think his efficiency will be as high.

Last season Gus had 4.1 ypc after 3 seasons of having 5 ypc i didnt realize this changed last season. He still has career 4.9 ypc from those seasons.

It will likely be somewhere around 4 ypc not 5 was the main point I was trying to make.

I wonder if this change even with Jackson last season is a sign of him wearing down?

He did have 198 rushing attempts. More than previous seasons. Perhaps that is part of it. One big play not mattering as much.

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

I would say the answers are not Isaiah Spiller or Gus Edwards. If I were going redraft, I would take JK Dobbins in the later rounds probably. I think he has more talent than the other 2 mentioned but you can't outrun a deteriorating body. In dynasty, I will probably take Vidal in the 3rd or 4th, given the opportunity, but I am not staking my claim on anyone in this backfield or the overall offense.

 

[Biabreakable]

On the flip side of this defenses will not have to worry about Herbert running the ball and Edwards wont have as good of opportunity on a per touch basis.

Edwards could see a full ypc less with the Chargers because of this.

Despite all the talk about Harbaugh and Roman wanting to run the ball they wont be able to do that and be forced to throw more.

I love Gus but I thibk you are fooling yourself if you dont think Lamar contributed to it.

I think we all know a QB who is a threat to run themselves increases a RB's YPC. I'm fine with lowering his YPC, but 456 carries was the league average last year. I think we can all agree LAC will have more than the 431 carries they had last year, so who gets those carries? They vacated 286 of those carries when Ekeler and Kelley left. I guess maybe I am overvaluing Gus because I think Dobbins is dead meat. Or maybe I am undervaluing Vidal, but I think Gus will eclipse 200 carries easily. If he does, his current ADP is too low.

Yeah we are pretty much on the same page here.

While I would love for Dobbins to fully recover and play up to his former shown ability I am not counting on it.

I think Gus leads this backfield in rushing attempts and 200 rushing attempts is a baseline I considered also.

Edwards hasnt quite had 200 rushing attempts in a season yet either though. So I am reluctant to push his opportunity higher than that.

I do expect another RB or a group of RB to somewhat split the load.

 

[TheWinz]

I wonder if this change even with Jackson last season is a sign of him wearing down?

Absolutely positively not! Gus Edwards has a grand total of 1095 touches, in college and the NFL combined! And if we just count the NFL, he's only at 729. That's basically 2 seasons for a workhorse RB.

 

[Biabreakable]

I wonder if this change even with Jackson last season is a sign of him wearing down?

Absolutely positively not! Gus Edwards has a grand total of 1095 touches, in college and the NFL combined! And if we just count the NFL, he's only at 729. That's basically 2 seasons for a workhorse RB.

Lost my previous post.

The question to me is why did Edwards only have 4.1 ypc last season (198 RA) when he had been 5 or better every season before?

Its likely just more carries and random variance as I said before. But what else was different for Edwards in 2023?

He was 28 years old. Some studies that Menobrown has linked in other threads show this being past the peak year of 27. He is going into his 6th season where historically is the last of a RBs most valuable seasons, on average with some outliers such as Priest Holnes.

Is Edwards Priest Holmes? Even Harbaugh wouldnt give Gus the ball as much as **** Vermiel did Priest.

Another thing different in 2023 he didnt have Greg Roman as his coach. Reason to think he gets back to 5 ypc because of that?

I just dont think its the same without Lamar.

 

[TheWinz]

I wonder if this change even with Jackson last season is a sign of him wearing down?

Absolutely positively not! Gus Edwards has a grand total of 1095 touches, in college and the NFL combined! And if we just count the NFL, he's only at 729. That's basically 2 seasons for a workhorse RB.

Lost my previous post.

The question to me is why did Edwards only have 4.1 ypc last season (198 RA) when he had been 5 or better every season before?

Its likely just more carries and random variance as I said before. But what else was different for Edwards in 2023?

He was 28 years old. Some studies that Menobrown has linked in other threads show this being past the peak year of 27. He is going into his 6th season where historically is the last of a RBs most valuable seasons, on average with some outliers such as Priest Holnes.

Is Edwards Priest Holmes? Even Harbaugh wouldnt give Gus the ball as much as **** Vermiel did Priest.

Another thing different in 2023 he didnt have Greg Roman as his coach. Reason to think he gets back to 5 ypc because of that?

I just dont think its the same without Lamar.

I can't explain why he dipped to 4.1 in 2023, but I feel safe in saying it wasn't age or wear and tear. And I know he has yet to have 200 carries in a season, but it's not because he proved he couldn't handle them. Don't forget, he was undrafted out of college, and made a name for himself when other starters went down. This will be the first year he is really thought of as the top dog, and even that is in question if Dobbins proves to be 100%.

 

[Biabreakable]

Well if we agree that a baseline projection for Edwards should be 200 rushing attempts (12 per game) at 4.3 ypc ( league average) that would be 860 rushing yards which is about 50 rushing yards per game.

He only has 30 receptions over 5 years. He did have his best performance as a receiver last season. Pretty hard for me to project more than 15 receptions. (Which would be a new high for Edwards) Less than 1 per game.

So then what about TD?

Gus scored a record 13 TD last season. How often he scores will pretty much determine if he was worth starting that week or not.

While RB 41 does seem like a good price I am not sure he greatly outperforms that based on these projections without double digit TDs.

 

[TheWinz]

Well if we agree that a baseline projection for Edwards should be 200 rushing attempts (12 per game) at 4.3 ypc ( league average) that would be 860 rushing yards which is about 50 rushing yards per game.

He only has 30 receptions over 5 years. He did have his best performance as a receiver last season. Pretty hard for me to project more than 15 receptions. (Which would be a new high for Edwards) Less than 1 per game.

So then what about TD?

Gus scored a record 13 TD last season. How often he scores will pretty much determine if he was worth starting that week or not.

While RB 41 does seem like a good price I am not sure he greatly outperforms that based on these projections without double digit TDs.

Yeah, Gus doesn't get jack squat in the passing game, but perhaps he's good at it, and just hasn't been on the field that much during passing downs. I know it's a small sample, but he does have an 81.1% catch rate and 12.5 yards per catch. I'm typically not one to remove something, but I know many people will say hey, his 80 yard catch last year is really skewing the number, so let's remove it. He still ends up with 10.1 yards per catch to go along with an 80.6% catch rate. Both those numbers are better than Ekeler's lifetime averages. And no, I'm not trying to say he's a well-rounded 3-down RB, but he's not like Shaq at the foul line when it comes to pass catching. I will project him for 25 catches, because I think he'll be on the field enough. As for the rushes, if we give Gus 200, what are you doing with the other 150 or so that should be for RB's?

 

[Biabreakable]

Well if we agree that a baseline projection for Edwards should be 200 rushing attempts (12 per game) at 4.3 ypc ( league average) that would be 860 rushing yards which is about 50 rushing yards per game.

He only has 30 receptions over 5 years. He did have his best performance as a receiver last season. Pretty hard for me to project more than 15 receptions. (Which would be a new high for Edwards) Less than 1 per game.

So then what about TD?

Gus scored a record 13 TD last season. How often he scores will pretty much determine if he was worth starting that week or not.

While RB 41 does seem like a good price I am not sure he greatly outperforms that based on these projections without double digit TDs.

Yeah, Gus doesn't get jack squat in the passing game, but perhaps he's good at it, and just hasn't been on the field that much during passing downs. I know it's a small sample, but he does have an 81.1% catch rate and 12.5 yards per catch. I'm typically not one to remove something, but I know many people will say hey, his 80 yard catch last year is really skewing the number, so let's remove it. He still ends up with 10.1 yards per catch to go along with an 80.6% catch rate. Both those numbers are better than Ekeler's lifetime averages. And no, I'm not trying to say he's a well-rounded 3-down RB, but he's not like Shaq at the foul line when it comes to pass catching. I will project him for 25 catches, because I think he'll be on the field enough. As for the rushes, if we give Gus 200, what are you doing with the other 150 or so that should be for RB's?

Well when I say baseline i mean most likely #s it could be more or less than that.

I agree with you that Edwards efficiency as a receiver is not bad. Its just such a small sample size, makes it hard to do anything with that. His targets could go up with Herbert compared to Lamar or other running QBs who are less likely to check down to a RB.

For the other touches I would expect that to be divided by a few other RBs they have not just one of them.

 

[Ray_T]

Well if we agree that a baseline projection for Edwards should be 200 rushing attempts (12 per game) at 4.3 ypc ( league average) that would be 860 rushing yards which is about 50 rushing yards per game.

He only has 30 receptions over 5 years. He did have his best performance as a receiver last season. Pretty hard for me to project more than 15 receptions. (Which would be a new high for Edwards) Less than 1 per game.

So then what about TD?

Gus scored a record 13 TD last season. How often he scores will pretty much determine if he was worth starting that week or not.

While RB 41 does seem like a good price I am not sure he greatly outperforms that based on these projections without double digit TDs.

I dont know that I'd be predicting 4.3 YPC for this guy. He averaged 4.1 YPC last year on the Ravens. (who I think have a better line than the Chargers)

Chargers Line will be improved, but the real improvement likely happens next year or the year after these players they brought in learn to be pros and have a full year of pro level coaching.

also, in general, the rule with RB's is the efficiency goes down as the volume goes up. Last year his numbers did go down but TD's way up. part of this is being used as a goal line back. if he gets 2 or 3 cracks at it at the goal line and punches it in, hes averaging less than 1/2 yard per carry on those carries. hard to maintain a 5 YPC avg like he did years prior. I think he averages 3.9 to 4.1 YPC and will get all the goal line carries he can handle. Lots of TD, but I dont know how many carries he gets between the 20's. I think the chargers are now planning on him being the starter, but it could still be a committee thing where hes the starter in name only. I dont know how Vidal has done in camp so far, but hes the guy who could cut into his workload between the 20's. I'd be surprised if Vidal gets many of the goal line looks.

 

[Biabreakable]

The goal line and short yardage attempts is a good point.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

The goal line and short yardage attempts is a good point.

Yes, another reason why ypc can be a skewed stat. You can't average 5 ypc if you keep getting it at the 2 yard line.

 

[TheWinz]

For the other touches I would expect that to be divided by a few other RBs they have not just one of them.

but it could still be a committee thing where hes the starter in name only

I think here is where I differ from just about everyone, because I am projecting ZERO carries for Dobbins. He is the reason I am so high on Gus.

 

[menobrown]

FWIW Gus did have more carries inside the 5 yard line last year then the entire rest of his career combined, almost double. Removing those carries helps, but still pales to the other seasons.

If you removed all of his carries inside the 5 yard line in his career this would his YPC:

2018- 5.29
2019- 5.65
2020- 5.36
2022-5.07
2023-4.47

 

[FarFromHome]

Who knows how this plays out. What we do know is that Harbaugh and Roman are gonna run the football. A lot. Id put em down for 500 plus rushing attempts. Gus feels like the best bet for fantasy purposes. 250 carries and most goal line seems fair. 10th round pick. Seems like a decent investment.

 

[Grid71]

I'll be the contrarian. Right now before camp, I'm buying JK Dobbins in the 15th round (ADP 176 Underdog on 17% of my teams). He's a scary pick due to those major injuries giving him an injury prone high risk label. Listed at #2 on the depth chart and Vidal getting buzz as the newcomer. Plus it's not looking like LAC will score a ton of points. People who drafted him the last couple years were burned bad. Understandable why most people don't want to take another shot.

My opinion, JK is the most talented back on the roster by a landslide with the most upside. He was effective catching passes in Ohio State 71 receptions, 9.1 yard avg/rec and 5 TD. Ravens didn't throw to him much with Lamar running instead of check down passes. He was known as a guy who would play through pain. Unfortunately, knee and Achilles injury isn't something he could play through. He's got to be hungry and frankly should get the ball as many times as the coaches allow. After people see his explosiveness in camp/preseason, expect his stock to rise dramatically. Production wise, I think he will crush his 176 ADP.

 

[TheWinz]

I'll be the contrarian. Right now before camp, I'm buying JK Dobbins in the 15th round (ADP 176 Underdog on 17% of my teams). He's a scary pick due to those major injuries giving him an injury prone high risk label. Listed at #2 on the depth chart and Vidal getting buzz as the newcomer. Plus it's not looking like LAC will score a ton of points. People who drafted him the last couple years were burned bad. Understandable why most people don't want to take another shot.

My opinion, JK is the most talented back on the roster by a landslide with the most upside. He was effective catching passes in Ohio State 71 receptions, 9.1 yard avg/rec and 5 TD. Ravens didn't throw to him much with Lamar running instead of check down passes. He was known as a guy who would play through pain. Unfortunately, knee and Achilles injury isn't something he could play through. He's got to be hungry and frankly should get the ball as many times as the coaches allow. After people see his explosiveness in camp/preseason, expect his stock to rise dramatically. Production wise, I think he will crush his 176 ADP.

Yes, Dobbins is the best RB on this roster, and it's not even close. That's not in question. IF he suits up and can stay on the field, he will be a massive steal. I just don't think he will suit up, so his floor to me is absolute zero.

 

[Grid71]

I'll be the contrarian. Right now before camp, I'm buying JK Dobbins in the 15th round (ADP 176 Underdog on 17% of my teams). He's a scary pick due to those major injuries giving him an injury prone high risk label. Listed at #2 on the depth chart and Vidal getting buzz as the newcomer. Plus it's not looking like LAC will score a ton of points. People who drafted him the last couple years were burned bad. Understandable why most people don't want to take another shot.

My opinion, JK is the most talented back on the roster by a landslide with the most upside. He was effective catching passes in Ohio State 71 receptions, 9.1 yard avg/rec and 5 TD. Ravens didn't throw to him much with Lamar running instead of check down passes. He was known as a guy who would play through pain. Unfortunately, knee and Achilles injury isn't something he could play through. He's got to be hungry and frankly should get the ball as many times as the coaches allow. After people see his explosiveness in camp/preseason, expect his stock to rise dramatically. Production wise, I think he will crush his 176 ADP.

Yes, Dobbins is the best RB on this roster, and it's not even close. That's not in question. IF he suits up and can stay on the field, he will be a massive steal. I just don't think he will suit up, so his floor to me is absolute zero.

Agreed. That's why I count myself as contrarian on this topic. I believe in JK Dobbins as a tough SOB who will give it his all and play through pain. Probably take over LAC RB1 at some point early in the season. Of course he could have another major injury again, but I don't consider him injury prone. Different injuries, but reminds me of the Fred Taylor years when no one would touch him after a series of fluky injuries then BOOM he's a first round RB the next season.

 

[Biabreakable]

NFL 2023 - Comparative Offensive Line Rankings & Ratings - Final Rankings - NFL Lines

Rating NFL Offensive Line units is a bit of a tricky proposition. Most rankings involve looking at the individual linemans’ grades and or block win rates.

nfllines.com

I was curious if the Ravens offensive line may have gotten worse in 2023 and found the above which shows the Ravens were the best offensive line in 2023.

So that wasnt part of the reason for Gus lower ypc.

As someone mentioned earlier the Chargers offensive line isnt nearly as good.

 

[TheWinz]

NFL 2023 - Comparative Offensive Line Rankings & Ratings - Final Rankings - NFL Lines

Rating NFL Offensive Line units is a bit of a tricky proposition. Most rankings involve looking at the individual linemans’ grades and or block win rates.

nfllines.com

I was curious if the Ravens offensive line may have gotten worse in 2023 and found the above which shows the Ravens were the best offensive line in 2023.

So that wasnt part of the reason for Gus lower ypc.

As someone mentioned earlier the Chargers offensive line isnt nearly as good.

Newcomer Joe Alt counts as 2 linemen. Gus is gonna average 6ypc this year!

 

[Ray_T]

For the other touches I would expect that to be divided by a few other RBs they have not just one of them.

but it could still be a committee thing where hes the starter in name only

I think here is where I differ from just about everyone, because I am projecting ZERO carries for Dobbins. He is the reason I am so high on Gus.

I wouldnt go that far. I think they will try Dobbins to see if he can still play. but coming off an Achilles injury its not a given he will be himself when he returns. it might take another half to 3/4 of a season or it may never happen. Achilles is a terrible injury for a RB.

everyone knows this.

while its not impossible to come back from this, the odds are 50-50 at best.

that said, harbaughs brother coached Dobbins in Baltimore so I dont know that he signs him unless his bro gave him the inside track on how the recovery was going.

for that reason alone I think he will get a fair chance to prove he can play. after that, its really about merit.

 

[TheWinz]

for that reason alone I think he will get a fair chance to prove he can play. after that, its really about merit.

Oh, I fully believe the RB1 spot in LAC is his if he is healthy. He gets first shot, not Gus. Call it a gut feeling, but I think his legs fall off before the season begins.

 

[Ray_T]

for that reason alone I think he will get a fair chance to prove he can play. after that, its really about merit.

Oh, I fully believe the RB1 spot in LAC is his if he is healthy. He gets first shot, not Gus. Call it a gut feeling, but I think his legs fall off before the season begins.

that's always been the issue with him. if he could only stay healthy.......

but if I can get him late enough in the draft I may bite and take my chances.

 

[TheWinz]

for that reason alone I think he will get a fair chance to prove he can play. after that, its really about merit.

Oh, I fully believe the RB1 spot in LAC is his if he is healthy. He gets first shot, not Gus. Call it a gut feeling, but I think his legs fall off before the season begins.

that's always been the issue with him. if he could only stay healthy.......

but if I can get him late enough in the draft I may bite and take my chances.

oh, heck yeah. in bigger roster leagues, I would love to roster Gus, JK, and even Vidal. One is sure to be a steal at their ADP's.

 

[Ray_T]

for that reason alone I think he will get a fair chance to prove he can play. after that, its really about merit.

Oh, I fully believe the RB1 spot in LAC is his if he is healthy. He gets first shot, not Gus. Call it a gut feeling, but I think his legs fall off before the season begins.

that's always been the issue with him. if he could only stay healthy.......

but if I can get him late enough in the draft I may bite and take my chances.

oh, heck yeah. in bigger roster leagues, I would love to roster Gus, JK, and even Vidal. One is sure to be a steal at their ADP's.

for sure. the reason they are so cheap is we are not sure which one it will be

 

[Tau837]

Just ran across this thread. Good topic.

Despite all the talk about Harbaugh and Roman wanting to run the ball they wont be able to do that and be forced to throw more.

I disagree with this. I expect the Chargers will be in the top 10 in rushing attempts. So far, GM Hortiz and HC Harbaugh have done everything they said they would do. I see no reason to believe they won't run the ball a lot.

The question to me is why did Edwards only have 4.1 ypc last season (198 RA) when he had been 5 or better every season before?

Its likely just more carries and random variance as I said before. But what else was different for Edwards in 2023?

One thing worth noting. In Edwards' career, he played 3 seasons with Roman as OC (2019, 2020, 2022). Per PFF, here are some of his splits in those seasons and last season under OC Monken:

• Rushing attempts:
  • 2019-2022: Zone 83 (21%), Gap 307 (79%)
  • 2023: Zone 90 (43%), Gap 117 (57%)
• 10+ yard runs:
  • 2019-2022: 52 (13.1% of attempts)
  • 2023: 16 (7.6% of attempts)
• 15+ yard runs:
  • 2019-2022: 23 (5.8% of attempts)
  • 2023: 9 (4.3% of attempts)
• First down runs:
  • 2019-2022: 134 (33.8% of attempts)
  • 2023: 53 (25.1% of attempts)

PFF doesn't make available separate grades for zone and gap running, at least not that I know of. But it seems reasonable to see the data above as a possible contributor to the change in Edwards' ypc last season, in addition to the increased goal line attempts. If true, returning to Roman's offense would bode well for him.

As for the OL rankings, just a data point. PFF's final 2023 OL rankings had the Ravens at #5. Their most recent 2024 OL rankings have the Chargers at #12. That is a gap, obviously, but not a big one.

 

[Scoresman]

I think I'm just fading this entire team and be done with it.

On the one hand, you've got a coach and OC who like to run the ball, but on the other, you don't have the RB horses to really do that with. It seems like such a mismatch between coaching style and player personnel. I can't figure out at all how to project this team. I'm just going with Vegas team totals and splitting everything near even amongst everyone.

 

[Marauder]

I disagree with this. I expect the Chargers will be in the top 10 in rushing attempts. So far, GM Hortiz and HC Harbaugh have done everything they said they would do. I see no reason to believe they won't run the ball a lot.

I don't think it's an issue of not believing them that they want to run the ball a lot. It's more that when they find themselves behind in games with the running game not working and they know their best player on offense is their QB, are they going to continue to stick with the run game? Seems doubtful.

 

[Tau837]

I disagree with this. I expect the Chargers will be in the top 10 in rushing attempts. So far, GM Hortiz and HC Harbaugh have done everything they said they would do. I see no reason to believe they won't run the ball a lot.

I don't think it's an issue of not believing them that they want to run the ball a lot. It's more that when they find themselves behind in games with the running game not working and they know their best player on offense is their QB, are they going to continue to stick with the run game? Seems doubtful.

I think they will have a successful rushing offense, which will make it easier to run the ball more often. I think they will run more often in all game situations except trailing late.

 

[Grid71]

Report link below isn't new, but relevant to this discussion. One item I think is being overlooked by the community is RB receptions in Roman's offense. Lamar ran the ball instead of checking down to RB. Justin Herbert will leverage Dobbins as a dual threat. Concerns raised here about abandoning the run lean more towards increased usage for Dobbins over Gus. The only real concern is about Dobbins health & has he lost a step? If he looks good in camp & preseason, this guy is an extreme value compared to his ADP.

ESPN JK Dobbins report from April

"Dobbins was the Ravens' lead back when healthy. He brings a style different from Edwards' that features elusiveness and the ability to catch passes out of the backfield.

The Ravens didn't do a ton of throwing to running backs, but in Dobbins' rookie season with Roman, he caught a career-high 18 passes. The Chargers and quarterback Justin Herbert relied heavily on former running back Austin Ekeler in the passing offense in the past, and Dobbins could potentially have an impact there."

 

[msudaisy26]

Even if Dobbins stays healthy until the season starts there is almost zero chance he gets a bell cow role. He has proven he can't handle. At best he will see 50 percent of the snaps and the other 50 percent will go to Gus and another rb. Only way this changes is if there are injuries to the other rbs.

Gus will most likely handle all the short work as well.