Does MFL support either of these formats?
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Luck and Fantasy Football (1 Viewer)
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redman
Footballguy
Any skilled owner would know about the Madden cover curse and draft accordingly.
Fantaholic
Footballguy
60-70% luck
but
80-90% of the guys on this board are in denial about it
but
80-90% of the guys on this board are in denial about it
Is it "luck" that I'm 5 - 2 or better in all but one league?(Of seven) That over the last ten years about 75% of my teams make the playoffs?
League setup will have a huge impact on the %luck for sure. Deep rosters lower luck. Shallow rosters increase luck. H2H formats increase luck, total points formats decrease it (sometimes dramaticly).
In your average sized H2H redraft leagues, it's in the 30% area, but EVERY LEAGUE SETUP is different.
For anyone that believes it's 75% or more "luck", send me an e-mail, and we'll test your theory. We'll set up EIGHT DIFFERENT drafts for next year, use FBG scoring, 12 team H2H. 17 man rosters, start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, K, Def/ST, 17 man rosters.
I'll make the playoffs in AT LEAST five leagues, and win at least one championship. Those who beleive strongly it's mostly luck, are the ones who are all over the map in their success rates, but mostly losing. AS often as not, they are guys who think they know football, but didn't even know who Leon Washington was or who he played for until 3 weeks ago.
League setup will have a huge impact on the %luck for sure. Deep rosters lower luck. Shallow rosters increase luck. H2H formats increase luck, total points formats decrease it (sometimes dramaticly).
In your average sized H2H redraft leagues, it's in the 30% area, but EVERY LEAGUE SETUP is different.
For anyone that believes it's 75% or more "luck", send me an e-mail, and we'll test your theory. We'll set up EIGHT DIFFERENT drafts for next year, use FBG scoring, 12 team H2H. 17 man rosters, start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, K, Def/ST, 17 man rosters.
I'll make the playoffs in AT LEAST five leagues, and win at least one championship. Those who beleive strongly it's mostly luck, are the ones who are all over the map in their success rates, but mostly losing. AS often as not, they are guys who think they know football, but didn't even know who Leon Washington was or who he played for until 3 weeks ago.
You can do all the pre-season and in-season homework possible. You can read blogs, FF message boards and other football sites to keep current. However, you cannot control injuries (C. Portis, SA, Matt Hasslebeck just to name a few this season).
Last year I finished the regular season at 11-2 with the FF starting line-up of T. Brady, W. Dunn, B. Westbrook, L. Fitzgerald, C. Johnson, B. Watson, S. Graham, Philly D. Dunn and Westbrook when down with injuries a week or two before my league's playoffs and I lost in the first round. In a 14-team auction league with each owner holding 4 RBs., there weren't any decent WW RBs to replace Dunn and Westbrooks production with.
Last year I finished the regular season at 11-2 with the FF starting line-up of T. Brady, W. Dunn, B. Westbrook, L. Fitzgerald, C. Johnson, B. Watson, S. Graham, Philly D. Dunn and Westbrook when down with injuries a week or two before my league's playoffs and I lost in the first round. In a 14-team auction league with each owner holding 4 RBs., there weren't any decent WW RBs to replace Dunn and Westbrooks production with.
crimsonrebel
Footballguy
Jerry Porter is that you? I think the poker comparison is most apt. In any given game/hand luck factors heavily in the win, but over the course of a season/tournament skill tends to prevail over luck.I'm actually an NFL player who owns himself in dynasty, so luck is never involved.
Last year i would have voted 30-40%, then we get this new guy in our league. Never played fantasy football before, knew basically nothing about it. Did NO homework, at all, and only had real knowledge of about 20% of the teams in the whole league. Drafted half the Pittsburg and New England team, drafted backups thinking they were starters. Drafted one guy out of the league, drafted one that was on IR, took two defenses that had the same bye week. Started guys on the bye week (at every position), kept Chad Pennington all year even though he's on IR (he said, quote "he might come back by the end of the year", even thought i told him IR means out for the year).
By the 8th week, we had a secret league vote to kick him out (7-2 to give him the boot) for the next year. He drafted Priest in round 1, and LJ in round 3. Well, we know what happed with LJ, dont we? He made the Super Bowl, but did lose.
I voted 70-80%. You can be as smart as you want, but you cant predict injuries (whether its your player or the players around him), coaching changes, teams comming out of nowhere to play great, etc.
By the 8th week, we had a secret league vote to kick him out (7-2 to give him the boot) for the next year. He drafted Priest in round 1, and LJ in round 3. Well, we know what happed with LJ, dont we? He made the Super Bowl, but did lose.
I voted 70-80%. You can be as smart as you want, but you cant predict injuries (whether its your player or the players around him), coaching changes, teams comming out of nowhere to play great, etc.
Mr. Know-It-All
Footballguy
I always thoguht skill far outweighed luck until this year.
I our league we have a team that is 6-1 with the third lowest points scored, but they have the lowest points scored against by a HUGE margin (12 team league average score is 84 points, this guy is averaging 75 points but his opponents have only averaged 65 points).
In that same league we have a team that is 1-6 with the fifth highest points scored, but opponents have averaged a whopping 92 point average against.
If the 1-6 team and the 6-1 team switched scheduled, the 1-6 team would be 6-1 and the 6-1 team would be 0-7.
Considering that due to the explosion of the internet resources that all teams will draft an average team, with skilled veterans drafting above average teams - luck has taken on a larger role than I ever would have anticipated. Moreso is leagues in which the majority of owners are active owners.
I our league we have a team that is 6-1 with the third lowest points scored, but they have the lowest points scored against by a HUGE margin (12 team league average score is 84 points, this guy is averaging 75 points but his opponents have only averaged 65 points).
In that same league we have a team that is 1-6 with the fifth highest points scored, but opponents have averaged a whopping 92 point average against.
If the 1-6 team and the 6-1 team switched scheduled, the 1-6 team would be 6-1 and the 6-1 team would be 0-7.
Considering that due to the explosion of the internet resources that all teams will draft an average team, with skilled veterans drafting above average teams - luck has taken on a larger role than I ever would have anticipated. Moreso is leagues in which the majority of owners are active owners.
pantagrapher
Footballguy
I noticed that flaw after I posted, but didn't think anyone would catch it.
Wu-banger
Footballguy
that is the exact rule we have implemented this year.........designed to reduce the H2H "luck" factor and reward the better teams a greater chance to make the playoffs (....then it's all luck
)Seems to be working great ..
Disco Stu
Confirmed FBGal
It's "sharks" (hate using that term btw) like this who send me running back to the FFA time after time. :XI've made the playoffs in 6 of 7 years in my 14 team league, and 7 of 7 years in my 12 team league. Somehow that hasn't turned me into a pompous ####...
Mr. Know-It-All
Footballguy
I would venture to guess it is luck that allowed you to type this post due to the extreme arm strain you must endure due to the constant patting of yourself on the back. God bless you son, it is wonderful that you are starting up leagues for 5th graders, your fantasy football prowess has probably established you in the pantheon of 5th grade idols such as The Cheetah Girls and Aaron Carter.
walkwithme
Footballguy
This game for the short term is definitely more luck than skill. We all know there will be 1st round busts and try to come up with a way or strategy to not select them on our team. Of course we don't get most of the bust right and injuries happen that dramatically change the season. Who predicted Chester Taylor as top 5 RB potential the same for Kevin Jones. How about Rex Grossman and David Carr playing rather respectable. I think you almost need to subsribe to a new drafting strategy where you pick your highest rated players one roumd and then do something where you skip down and pick your 20th rated player and you can come up with a decent team. Like an uncertainty pick where you know someone who is ranked real low will somehow turn out to a stud.
Buddy Ball 2K3
Footballguy
I hate to say its 60% luck but I did. I have been in a keeper league for 12 seasons, I have had one of the top 1-3 scoring teams for at least 7 of those seasons, and I have one championship.
I will say there have been some unfortunate events, Barry Sanders retires on me, Steve Young the next year and now Tiki...
I will say there have been some unfortunate events, Barry Sanders retires on me, Steve Young the next year and now Tiki...
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
One of the problems with FFL is that its very hard to get into the "long run" unless you play in a crapload of leagues over a 10-15 year period.
I think if your league has a points title (total points scored) for 16 weeks and you are consistently doing well in that, then you are proving that your skill.
The wins/losses and titles (due to extreme short term luck needed in playoff weeks) is much more luck based.
Also very true that it depends on the general skill level against those you play.
If "skill" is "trying" and you're beating someone who doesn't care about ffl and doesn't make moves.. is that even really "skill" ?
The post about it depending on the skill level of opponents is appropriate and relevent.
I think if your league has a points title (total points scored) for 16 weeks and you are consistently doing well in that, then you are proving that your skill.
The wins/losses and titles (due to extreme short term luck needed in playoff weeks) is much more luck based.
Also very true that it depends on the general skill level against those you play.
If "skill" is "trying" and you're beating someone who doesn't care about ffl and doesn't make moves.. is that even really "skill" ?
The post about it depending on the skill level of opponents is appropriate and relevent.
The Future Champs
Footballguy
Luck has a lot to do with it. Our league's high scoring team is 4-3, even though they have had the high score three out of seven weeks. One of the lowest scoring teams is 6-1, even though several weeks they posted the second lowest score of the week. Weekly matchup results are the luck of the draw.Luck is also a factor in how good your team is. Did you pick up Jeff Wilkins or Robbie Gould at the end of the draft. Lucky, at least so far. I grabbed McNabb in the 4th, and although I had him targeted from the get-go, his numbers have been insane. You get bad luck if you drafted a player who gets hurt, even someone like Shaun Alexander who before this season hadn't been hurt in who knows how long.You get lucky with week to week starts. Even some of the biggest fantasy studs have an off week every now and then.I'd put it at about 50/50 luck and skill personally.
#1. based on the poll, the majority agree that it's somewhere between 40% and 70% luck... my vote was for 60%.
#2. based on the nature of this forum, this poll will be skewed towards "skill" it's a fantasy football forum where people refer to themselves as "sharks"
... go to the Al Qaida forum and ask them if suicide bombing success is skill or luck and they'll vote that it's mostly "skill".
#3. I agree with the poker analogies and the idea that each season is too small of a sample size to really measure luck vs. skill accurately.
#4. For those who have played FFball for many years (Head to Head format) and those who are frequently on these boards, you've probably been able to put your teams in contention most years... you generally draft well and make the playoffs but realize that there are many things out of your control.
#5. Finally, before the internet, ESPN, the NFL Channel, and CBS sportsline force-feeding every owner information, FFball was more challenging... I'm not sure that "skill" is even the right word there but you certainly had to do more work analyzing stats and trends on your own... the USA today and Football Weekly were valuable assetts for the successful fantasy football manager back then.
#2. based on the nature of this forum, this poll will be skewed towards "skill" it's a fantasy football forum where people refer to themselves as "sharks"
... go to the Al Qaida forum and ask them if suicide bombing success is skill or luck and they'll vote that it's mostly "skill".#3. I agree with the poker analogies and the idea that each season is too small of a sample size to really measure luck vs. skill accurately.
#4. For those who have played FFball for many years (Head to Head format) and those who are frequently on these boards, you've probably been able to put your teams in contention most years... you generally draft well and make the playoffs but realize that there are many things out of your control.
#5. Finally, before the internet, ESPN, the NFL Channel, and CBS sportsline force-feeding every owner information, FFball was more challenging... I'm not sure that "skill" is even the right word there but you certainly had to do more work analyzing stats and trends on your own... the USA today and Football Weekly were valuable assetts for the successful fantasy football manager back then.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Pretty much. Also skewing the polls - people winning this season want to attribute that to skill. Those that are having a tough go of it want to attribute that to bad luck.#1. based on the poll, the majority agree that it's somewhere between 40% and 70% luck... my vote was for 60%.#2. based on the nature of this forum, this poll will be skewed towards "skill" it's a fantasy football forum where people refer to themselves as "sharks"
Skill wins you enough games to get to the playoffs. Luck wins you championships. Even then, luck plays a big part during the season. Who else was unlucky enough to go against the Bears D with a win wrapped up until the final minutes of the game, only to lose because trash like eggturd james fumbled for a D TD like the loser that he is. There was no skill in his starting Chi. The game was won by my superior team until he rooled off 3 defensive TD's.
Skill is what allows one to draft gems like Eli, Gore, Jennings, AJ, etc.
That has to compete with the luck of kickers and defenses scoring.
Skill is what allows one to draft gems like Eli, Gore, Jennings, AJ, etc.
That has to compete with the luck of kickers and defenses scoring.
ya think?Is reading a ton about football and watching whenever you can a "skill"?It ain't like FFball players are "skilled" scouts... sure, they know all the players names, they know approx. ADPs, and they know if a player "slips" a bit in a draft... but to tell yourself that your "skill" in judging talent made you choose Andre Johnson over Javon Walker is stretching it a bit.Most FFballers simply parsed the info they read and made a judgement call based on that (i.e. I don't like Javon coming off an injury or I don't like AJ because of Carr and the O-line troubles).
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Yeah I don't see it as skill at all. You are closest to the truth of it here. The same people do well in FF in some leagues because they put in hours and hours and hours of research. Does that make them more skilled or more pathetic?
Ice Cream Man
Footballguy
70-80% luck in head to head -- at the very least.
In Rotisserie format (the sheer accumulation of stats) it would probably be far less (though still probably 50% or so).
Aside from the toss up that is head-to-head play -- that is, your fate is not decided entirely by the results of your team alone -- drafting players is a total crapshoot. Taking CJ below his ADP is no good if he has a terrible year. That is, you think you have aces, but you really have is deuces. It's even worse because you have very little idea what kind of CJ is going to show up on any given week. At least in poker you know what cards you have when they are dealt, for all your hands. In fantasy, you can only make educated guesses at what you hold and then guess how they will perform each week.
In Rotisserie format (the sheer accumulation of stats) it would probably be far less (though still probably 50% or so).
Aside from the toss up that is head-to-head play -- that is, your fate is not decided entirely by the results of your team alone -- drafting players is a total crapshoot. Taking CJ below his ADP is no good if he has a terrible year. That is, you think you have aces, but you really have is deuces. It's even worse because you have very little idea what kind of CJ is going to show up on any given week. At least in poker you know what cards you have when they are dealt, for all your hands. In fantasy, you can only make educated guesses at what you hold and then guess how they will perform each week.
hey, don't get me wrong, I put in tons of time preparing for my draft... I enjoy it; it's a hobby... crunching stats and trends to try and decide who you like and who you don't... watching pre-season games and regular season games.... but in the end, it's a crap-shoot. The most important thing you can do is understand approx. value of player going into the draft (i.e. ADPs). After that it's kinda' up in the air.
pinequick
Footballguy
This is the correct answer. My sense is that as more and more good-quality FFB information proliferates via the internet, the role of skill will continue to decrease.
That was me last year. I had the most overall points. But each week, my opponent scored their season high weekly point total.Your skill shows more in your draft and waiver moves.
Ice Cream Man
Footballguy
This is means everything and nothing at the same time.The key point -- and implicit in the thread -- is that in exactly 0 leagues worldwide, you are playing against exclusively 5 year-old kids or any similar field. And presumably you mean this would be "all skill" because you are playing against not only irrational players, but that they can only make "mistakes" that affect them negatively, not positively. That is, they draft kickers 1st round and only pick non-starters. This is a leap if there ever was one.
All players in exactly 100 percent of the fantasy leagues have at the very least a vague notion of the object of fantasy football, what is a football game, and the relative value of players (who starts on a NFL team and their past history.. if only last season). They are also players who can make mistakes that are both positive and negative.
I would argue.. and most of the posters here.. that in this framework the level of skill differential, relative to its ability to alter weekly head-to-head games, is very small. So you really answered your own question.
In my personal opinion, this small skill differential maybe accounts for at most 20% of the variance in winning.
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Frank Black
Footballguy
I finally cast my vote in this poll. I'm surprised to see that so many downplay the role of luck, even though I understand that human tendencies are to overrate our own "skill." On the other hand, when a question like this poll is asked on a messageboard site with people like us, who are looking for a leg up on information in order to exercise our "skill," I was probably wrong to be surprised. If the poll question was asked in a less zealous forum of more average FF enthusiasts, the answer would perhaps be different.
Aside from luck regarding injuries, I'll make one illustration for how luck governs FF: Over the last 3 seasons, I have played in at least 12 team league where 1 of the top 3 overall points leaders failed to make the playoffs. There were too many weeks where such a team happened to play the only team that week that scored more points than he did. This comes down to the luck of how the FF was made. This did not have anything to do with skill.
Otherwise, I agree with a lot of what HK and many others said.
Aside from luck regarding injuries, I'll make one illustration for how luck governs FF: Over the last 3 seasons, I have played in at least 12 team league where 1 of the top 3 overall points leaders failed to make the playoffs. There were too many weeks where such a team happened to play the only team that week that scored more points than he did. This comes down to the luck of how the FF was made. This did not have anything to do with skill.
Otherwise, I agree with a lot of what HK and many others said.
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