Luck and Fantasy Football (1 Viewer)

[Rounders]

I offered this up to our league in a poll after an owner said to me that he beleives that 95% of fantasy football is luck. I quickly scoffed at the idea, but wanted to get a litmus test of our league.

I have been a little surprised by my leagues results (only 10 votes), so I wanted to run the same question by my beloved FBG.

What says you?

 

[bizkliz]

individual performance at the draft has nothing to do with luck.

however, as any FF veteran can tell you, playing the schedule is a crap-shoot. its quite possible for lousy teams to temporarily succeed during the course of a season due to lucky weekly matchups. i personally like to think that even though one might get a few "good" or "bad" breaks due to scheduling, that the better teams will usually rise to the top. best way to tell is to check the weekly "breakdown" vs. actual records.

-biz-

 

[The Shizzle]

What about 70-80% ??

 

[delusional]

This is a team in my league. He is 4-3

Palmer Brooks Huard<-(i picked him for him cause he was at a funeral)

Barber Foster LendaleWhite

Basket Wayne Booker Bureleson Porter

Heap Watson

Vaderjagt

Bucs D

He hasn't made a waiver move all year. 4 & freaking 3. I am playing him this week and will lose.

So I say ALOT of luck

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Skill shows during:

Draft

Trading

Waiver Wire work

Luck shows during:

WDIS 50/50 calls

Playoffs

Schedules

In the regular season, skill outpaces luck.

In most plyaoff scenarios, luck comes much more into play.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Anyone who tells you there is no luck involved is nuts. In H2H you could score the second most points each week and never win a game.

In one league I was in a few years ago, I won the pot for the most overall points but didn't make the playoffs.

 

[Jackal King]

I voted 30-40% luck....and I feel it's closer to 30 than 40.

There are certainly variables that can not be controlled...and these can influence your success.

However, a skilled owner will always anticipate these variables and build in a mitigation plan.

Over the course of a season...I think skill almost always trumps luck.

 

[cormanman]

This premise is a little flawed in my opinion because the configuration and rules of a given league significantly increases or decreases the relationship of luck to skill needed to win a title.

So, relation of luck to skill is dependent on your league set up.

 

[GregR_2]

I really hate these threads.

Put me in a league with a bunch of 5 year olds and it is 100% skill.

Put me in a league with 12 clones of myself and it is 100% luck since skill is identical.

It's a meaningless question because it depends entirely on the skill level of owners in the league.

 

[The Shizzle]

Luck, although it sounds strange, has alot to do with injuries.

For instance, I lost this week by one point because Hass and Jennings got hurt. There was no skill there, I didn't start the wrong guys, it was just bad luck that found my team this particular week. It seems that there is one team in my league every year that draft horrible and ends up by winning 5-7 games a year. Explain the skill in showing up at the draft, making no roster moves, logging in one time a week on Sundays at 12:00 and having a 7-7 team. It is sick.....

 

[sandlotshrink]

I voted 60-70% and probably should have gone the 50-60% route the more I think about it because you can have a great draft and still get bit by the injury bug or run into teams that have the big scoring days by the likes of Big Ben or Alge Crumpler or the NYG D/ST.

 

[BaBastage]

Winning any given week is mostly luck.

Consistenty winning over the season(s) is more skill than luck.

Just like a poker tourney.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

reg season: skill during the draft

playoffs: luck

 

[Todem]

50-60% of it is luck.

Now you need skill to draft a great squad. You need skill to make the right WW pick ups. And you need skill to work good trades.

The luck is playing the right guy's each and every week and not suffering injuries and playing the right owner each week.

I love Ant sports VP system because it eliminates the heartbreak of scoring really good every week but you seem to always play the high scorer every week.

So in summary half luck half skill. And tha's how I see it going on 16 seasons playing this silly but great game.

 

[Sabertooth]

Skill shows during:

Draft

Trading

Waiver Wire work

Luck shows during:

WDIS 50/50 calls

Playoffs

Schedules

In the regular season, skill outpaces luck.

In most plyaoff scenarios, luck comes much more into play.

I call Seriously in the regular season, what is considered skill? Playing the matchup? Picking the right guys? Predicting injuries? How about predicting scores?

I don't think the regular season is a big enough sample size to say that skill outpaces luck. That's like saying the best poker player will win in a sample size of 13 hands. It's not enough.

 

[whhwalker]

This is a team in my league. He is 4-3

Palmer Brooks Huard<-(i picked him for him cause he was at a funeral)

Barber Foster LendaleWhite

Basket Wayne Booker Bureleson Porter

Heap Watson

Vaderjagt

Bucs D

He hasn't made a waiver move all year. 4 & freaking 3. I am playing him this week and will lose.

So I say ALOT of luck

12 Team 25 man roster 10 year old league (Bold=Keeper):I have:

QB: Leftwich, Garrard, Plummer, Romo

RB: Larry Johnson, Rudi Johnson, Cadillac Williams, Jerious Norwood, Ryan Moats , Mike Anderson

WR: TO, TJ Housh, Randy Moss, Hines Ward, Chad Jackson, Ashley Lelie, Wes Welker

TE: Gates, Manumaleuna, Vernon Davis

PK: Kaeding and Nedney

Def: Colts and Bengals

and I'm 4-3 Two weeks ago I played against a team with LT and TO (traded for TO last week) and their 6 TDs. Did I draft and trade well, you bet, but H2H is out of our control and is a lot of luck.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

Agreed that the league set up and scoring rules have a big impact on the luck factor.

Auction draft, total points, no team defense, and traditional performace scoring (no bonuses/funky quirks) probably help minimize the luck factor.

Snake draft, head to head schedule (with divisions even worse), team defense and funky bonus scoring probably increase the luck factor.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Skill shows during:

Draft

Trading

Waiver Wire work

Luck shows during:

WDIS 50/50 calls

Playoffs

Schedules

In the regular season, skill outpaces luck.

In most plyaoff scenarios, luck comes much more into play.

I call Seriously in the regular season, what is considered skill? Playing the matchup? Picking the right guys? Predicting injuries? How about predicting scores?

I don't think the regular season is a big enough sample size to say that skill outpaces luck. That's like saying the best poker player will win in a sample size of 13 hands. It's not enough.

Over 13 games, the skill you showed in the 3 categories I listed above will show up. They usually won't in the one-and-done format of the playoffs.Skill is much more of a factor for 12-13 weeks than it is for 2-4.

 

[perry147]

In redrafts luck plays a greater part than dynasty or keeper leagues because of the extra strategy involved in building a team.

 

[redman]

I'm actually an NFL player who owns himself in dynasty, so luck is never involved.

 

[freshly_shorn]

It really depends on the format of your league. In head to head, the schedule plays a huge part and increases the role 'luck' plays.

Skill is best measured by looking how an owner does over time. Skillful owners can counteract luck a little-bit by using strength of schedule and carefully managing byes, but in a single season, luck of the draw can easily trump skill.

Over time, though, in a head-to-head league, I'd say luck only plays a 30-40% role in determining a given team's result.

 

[turkishkamel]

Skill shows during:

Draft

Trading

Waiver Wire work

Luck shows during:

WDIS 50/50 calls

Playoffs

Schedules

In the regular season, skill outpaces luck.

In most plyaoff scenarios, luck comes much more into play.

couldnt agree more. i always feel like if i just get to the playoffs anything can happen.

 

[Verbal Kint]

Anyone who tells you there is no luck involved is nuts. In H2H you could score the second most points each week and never win a game. In one league I was in a few years ago, I won the pot for the most overall points but didn't make the playoffs.

There is some luck, but there are a few guys in every league I'm in that are in the playoffs every year. Luck applies to any given Sunday, but over the long haul, it balances out.

 

[pantagrapher]

50/50

When I'm winning, it's skill; when I'm losing, it's luck.

 

[RRaptors]

I read an article that went into several factors to analyze luck, it concluded the following:

"Luck attributed to head-to-head scheduling accounts for roughly 40 percent in any given week. But the impact of luck from all sources reduces to about 25 percent over the course of an entire season and over many seasons the impact of luck reduces to about 10 percent in determining success or failure in terms of winning and losing, making the playoffs or not."

LINK (FBG Subscribers)

ETA: It feels like this year for me has been 40% bad luck on my part, and 40% good luck for my opponents.

 

[Bri]

If I win=skill

If you win=luck

 

[J-Rock]

See my signature.

 

[Plainsman]

This premise is a little flawed in my opinion because the configuration and rules of a given league significantly increases or decreases the relationship of luck to skill needed to win a title. So, relation of luck to skill is dependent on your league set up.

IMO, I think the #1 variable/configuration that separates the pretenders from the contenders is bench size. Larger benches favor the more skilled player and reduce the luck as these players have better depth to cover byes, injuries, and trading up. As mentioned the skill factors are drafting, trading, and ww pickups. In my leagues, the winner is usually the one who grabs that special ww gem that fills a whole or allows you to trade to round your team out. Having a bigger bench allows the more knowledgable/skilled owners to reserve these sleepers on their bench by drafting or picking them up of the wire. An example, would be my league. Unfortunately we have small benches so the good owners hesitate to drop their good players to pick up breakout candidates like colston or berrian while the bad players have low risk to take on these players as their team is full of crap on the bench.

 

[rangerforme]

Skill shows during:

Draft

Trading

Waiver Wire work

Luck shows during:

WDIS 50/50 calls

Playoffs

Schedules

In the regular season, skill outpaces luck.

In most plyaoff scenarios, luck comes much more into play.

Forgetting those nagging little ACL injuries.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Agree that league setup matters more than anything. Deep benches, not TD-only, not H2H format and sensible WW rules can eliminate all but maybe 10-20% of the luck over 16 weeks.

 

[cubbie5150]

Luck is always a factor in H2H leagues.. That's why in my 12 year old redraft league, I convinced the commish 2 years ago to implement a new system: every week an owner is actually playing 2 games--1) H2H matchup, & 2) total pts for the week. Given a 12 team league, I can go 2-0, 0-2 or 1-1 every week. A team gets a "win" if it beats that week's H2H matchup, and another "win" if it finishes the week w/ a score in the top 6 of the league (we have a tie-breaking system if there's more than 2 teams tied for 6th most weekly pts scored). For example, in week 7, I won my H2H by scoring 91 pts, BUT, I didn't finish in the top 6 for pts scored that week; thus, my record for week 7 is 1-1. The hard luck H2H loser, OTOH, lost his H2H when he scored 125 pts, BUT, he also went 1-1 since his score was among the 6 highest....

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Luck is always a factor in H2H leagues.. That's why in my 12 year old redraft league, I convinced the commish 2 years ago to implement a new system: every week an owner is actually playing 2 games--1) H2H matchup, & 2) total pts for the week. Given a 12 team league, I can go 2-0, 0-2 or 1-1 every week. A team gets a "win" if it beats that week's H2H matchup, and another "win" if it finishes the week w/ a score in the top 6 of the league (we have a tie-breaking system if there's more than 2 teams tied for 6th most weekly pts scored). For example, in week 7, I won my H2H by scoring 91 pts, BUT, I didn't finish in the top 6 for pts scored that week; thus, my record for week 7 is 1-1. The hard luck H2H loser, OTOH, lost his H2H when he scored 125 pts, BUT, he also went 1-1 since his score was among the 6 highest....

Rotobowl does the same thing - almost.12 team leagues, the Top 3 / Bottom 3 get W/Ls accordingly.Love that rule.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Skill shows during:

Draft

While I agree mostly with this statement, the draft also has the MOST luck compared to other things in a league.I say this because there is quite a bit of luck who you will get in the draft depending on how it plays out.

For example...

Lets say you are targetting Edgerrin James, and he gets nabbed right before your pick, so you reluctantly take Brian Westbrook. If given the choice between those two, you would have chosen Edge, but took Westbrook because Edge got snatched up. I would consider this lucky.

On the opposite spectrum, what if you targetted Westbrook and then he was nabbed right before and you then took Edge. That is unlucky.

The draft has quite a bit of luck involved based on who falls and if that turns out to be more positive or negative rather than if you had your choice of any player. Yes, skill can get you good value and a better team on PAPER, but there is still luck involved based on what was available to you.

 

[marklot]

I offered this up to our league in a poll after an owner said to me that he beleives that 95% of fantasy football is luck. I quickly scoffed at the idea, but wanted to get a litmus test of our league. I have been a little surprised by my leagues results (only 10 votes), so I wanted to run the same question by my beloved FBG. What says you?

I voted 30-40%. This is the figure for most leagues. However, there are a couple of things that can be done to minimize the luck that is involved. Such as, head-to-head games every week for a win or a loss plus another W or L vs. the weekly ave. of the league scoring. Also, once the teams making the playoffs are established, use cumulative points for the playoff period (3 or 4 weeks) to determine the league champion.

 

[sentr]

Skill shows during:

Draft

While I agree mostly with this statement, the draft also has the MOST luck compared to other things in a league.I say this because there is quite a bit of luck who you will get in the draft depending on how it plays out.

For example...

Lets say you are targetting Edgerrin James, and he gets nabbed right before your pick, so you reluctantly take Brian Westbrook. If given the choice between those two, you would have chosen Edge, but took Westbrook because Edge got snatched up. I would consider this lucky.

On the opposite spectrum, what if you targetted Westbrook and then he was nabbed right before and you then took Edge. That is unlucky.

The draft has quite a bit of luck involved based on who falls and if that turns out to be more positive or negative rather than if you had your choice of any player. Yes, skill can get you good value and a better team on PAPER, but there is still luck involved based on what was available to you.

I think of it exactly opposite as you do. The example above actually strengthens the argument for Skill in the draft over luck. If someone were to choose Edge over Westbrook, that is a LACK of skill in not having the proper planning and thought process to come to the conclusion that Edge was certain to struggle this year. To take it a step further and show that the draft is about Skill, not luck. Say you were set on taking Westy and he got nabbed just before your pick which left you with Edge. The Skillful owner would not just blindly draft Edge b/c he was there.....he'd take a look at drafting a different/better RB or have a contingency plan and maybe start looking at the Top Tier WR. The draft is fluid and one must have numerous contingency plans in order to have a great draft. For me, there are so many things that are going on during the draft that I am looking at in order to make the best round by round value pick (Supply/Demand, roster sizes, opponents' draft thus far, future perceived needs by other owners- position by position, Tiers, etc...........)

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Skill shows during:

Draft

While I agree mostly with this statement, the draft also has the MOST luck compared to other things in a league.I say this because there is quite a bit of luck who you will get in the draft depending on how it plays out.

For example...

Lets say you are targetting Edgerrin James, and he gets nabbed right before your pick, so you reluctantly take Brian Westbrook. If given the choice between those two, you would have chosen Edge, but took Westbrook because Edge got snatched up. I would consider this lucky.

On the opposite spectrum, what if you targetted Westbrook and then he was nabbed right before and you then took Edge. That is unlucky.

The draft has quite a bit of luck involved based on who falls and if that turns out to be more positive or negative rather than if you had your choice of any player. Yes, skill can get you good value and a better team on PAPER, but there is still luck involved based on what was available to you.

I think of it exactly opposite as you do. The example above actually strengthens the argument for Skill in the draft over luck. If someone were to choose Edge over Westbrook, that is a LACK of skill in not having the proper planning and thought process to come to the conclusion that Edge was certain to struggle this year. To take it a step further and show that the draft is about Skill, not luck. Say you were set on taking Westy and he got nabbed just before your pick which left you with Edge. The Skillful owner would not just blindly draft Edge b/c he was there.....he'd take a look at drafting a different/better RB or have a contingency plan and maybe start looking at the Top Tier WR. The draft is fluid and one must have numerous contingency plans in order to have a great draft. For me, there are so many things that are going on during the draft that I am looking at in order to make the best round by round value pick (Supply/Demand, roster sizes, opponents' draft thus far, future perceived needs by other owners- position by position, Tiers, etc...........)

Sorry, but someone choosing Edge before Westbrook right before you has no bearing on YOUR skill. There was no skill which allowed Westbrook to drop to you instead of Edge. That is exactly my point. It was the luck of the draw on who fell to you, that is completely out of your control. Whether or not, the other owner is "skilled", whoever falls to you is out of your control. When something is out of your control, then luck will be involved.

 

[jwvdcw]

Skill shows during:

Draft

Trading

Waiver Wire work

Luck shows during:

WDIS 50/50 calls

Playoffs

Schedules

In the regular season, skill outpaces luck.

In most plyaoff scenarios, luck comes much more into play.

I call Seriously in the regular season, what is considered skill? Playing the matchup? Picking the right guys? Predicting injuries? How about predicting scores?

I don't think the regular season is a big enough sample size to say that skill outpaces luck. That's like saying the best poker player will win in a sample size of 13 hands. It's not enough.

Exactly. I think FF is about 95% luck...the sample size of each season is just too small.You all have already hit on the injuries luck aspect. And you have talked about the luck of scoring high and still losing or scoring low and still winning simply based upon who you play that week. But theres also simply a lot of luck in drafting and in weekly matchups.

Regarding drafting, suppose that you went back and forth all offseason on B Westbrook or L Jordan. Eventually you went with Jordan. Another owner in another league also went back and forth all offseason. He ended up going with Westbrook. Both of these decisions were essentially coinflip decisions....was there really any skill involved in that?

Or regarding weekly choices: If you have a WR who goes out of bounds twice at the 1 yard line, did you really exhibit less skill than an owner who started a guy who scored 2 TDs?

Its nearly all luck. Sure a complete idiot that drafts a kicker in the 3rd round won't be competitive. But as long as you get 12 guys who know football and who try their best, its a complete crapshoot imo.

 

[QB11]

funny thing:

HARDEST WORKERS usually are the LUCKIEST

 

[redaddy25]

Depends on the quality of your league... If everyone knows what they are doing its almost 100% luck. The lower the quality of the owners, the more the skill percentage goes up...

Now to my vote... The 0-6 team in my league scored the highest league total of the season against me this past week, I was second highest for the week... Perfect proof of luck (or unlucky in my case). I am in a league of about 5 solid owners and 5 who print off cheatsheets the day of the draft and check their team once a week to change their lineup... so I voted 50-60% luck.

 

[maccabees]

I voted 30-40% luck....and I feel it's closer to 30 than 40.There are certainly variables that can not be controlled...and these can influence your success.However, a skilled owner will always anticipate these variables and build in a mitigation plan.Over the course of a season...I think skill almost always trumps luck.

BINGO

 

[Jayrod]

Skill shows during:

Draft

While I agree mostly with this statement, the draft also has the MOST luck compared to other things in a league.I say this because there is quite a bit of luck who you will get in the draft depending on how it plays out.

For example...

Lets say you are targetting Edgerrin James, and he gets nabbed right before your pick, so you reluctantly take Brian Westbrook. If given the choice between those two, you would have chosen Edge, but took Westbrook because Edge got snatched up. I would consider this lucky.

On the opposite spectrum, what if you targetted Westbrook and then he was nabbed right before and you then took Edge. That is unlucky.

The draft has quite a bit of luck involved based on who falls and if that turns out to be more positive or negative rather than if you had your choice of any player. Yes, skill can get you good value and a better team on PAPER, but there is still luck involved based on what was available to you.

I think of it exactly opposite as you do. The example above actually strengthens the argument for Skill in the draft over luck. If someone were to choose Edge over Westbrook, that is a LACK of skill in not having the proper planning and thought process to come to the conclusion that Edge was certain to struggle this year. To take it a step further and show that the draft is about Skill, not luck. Say you were set on taking Westy and he got nabbed just before your pick which left you with Edge. The Skillful owner would not just blindly draft Edge b/c he was there.....he'd take a look at drafting a different/better RB or have a contingency plan and maybe start looking at the Top Tier WR. The draft is fluid and one must have numerous contingency plans in order to have a great draft. For me, there are so many things that are going on during the draft that I am looking at in order to make the best round by round value pick (Supply/Demand, roster sizes, opponents' draft thus far, future perceived needs by other owners- position by position, Tiers, etc...........)

Sorry, but someone choosing Edge before Westbrook right before you has no bearing on YOUR skill. There was no skill which allowed Westbrook to drop to you instead of Edge. That is exactly my point. It was the luck of the draw on who fell to you, that is completely out of your control. Whether or not, the other owner is "skilled", whoever falls to you is out of your control. When something is out of your control, then luck will be involved.

I think that the point sentr is making is pretty valid. The only thing you can't make an educated guess on is injuries. I would consider it skill to avoid Edge (as many did), but bad luck if you took Shaun Alexander. The draft is probably the most skill intensive part of the whole FF season, especially in HTH formats. Plus just looking at one pick doesn't do the draft justice. If you "got stuck" with Edge as your first or second pick, how did you hedge in later rounds with your other RB picks? There is a lot of luck involved in FF, but the draft is probably the least lucky part.

 

[Super King]

the lowest scoring team in my league is in second place. nuff said

 

[Kevin Jones Fan]

My dynasty league is in its eighth year, and my team leads in total points and total wins during that span . . . by a pretty fair margin. Yet it's never won a title and is 0-3 in title games. Make of it what you will . . .

 

[Mystery Achiever]

the lowest scoring team in my league is in second place. nuff said

Before last week's games, of the four teams in my division, the one with the best record had the fewest points scored. i didn't check where he fell among all twelve teams.

 

[thayman]

50/50When I'm winning, it's skill; when I'm losing, it's luck.

this is the correct answer

 

[BustedKnuckles]

My main problem with this thread is the word ''skill''....i believe it`s KNOWLEGE and research that dictates how you draft.....the teams that put time into researching NFL players and schedules and match ups is the team that will fair the best in the end...along with some good luck(injuries,suspensions and such , things out of our control). Trading and waiver wire pickups are ALL about knowledge.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

My main problem with this thread is the word ''skill''....i believe it`s KNOWLEGE and research that dictates how you draft.....the teams that put time into researching NFL players and schedules and match ups is the team that will fair the best in the end...along with some good luck(injuries,suspensions and such , things out of our control). Trading and waiver wire pickups are ALL about knowledge.

i understand your point, but i think the way you go about researching and gaining that knowledge constitutes skill.

 

[H.K.]

I really hate these threads.Put me in a league with a bunch of 5 year olds and it is 100% skill.Put me in a league with 12 clones of myself and it is 100% luck since skill is identical.It's a meaningless question because it depends entirely on the skill level of owners in the league.

 

[jbird]

My dynasty league is in its eighth year, and my team leads in total points and total wins during that span . . . by a pretty fair margin. Yet it's never won a title and is 0-3 in title games. Make of it what you will . . .

There was a similar thread here a couple of months ago. I can't recall who the poster was but he put it very simply, and I believe truthfully - it takes skill to make the playoffs, it takes luck to win the championship.

 

[faulkfan]

A couple weeks ago Philly (my defense/special teams unit) picked up a fumble and was clearly down, but the refs allowed the 97 yard return for a TD to stand.

I won that week by one point.

Skill plays a role in talent evaluation and taking the time to study stuff, but after those players are on your team it all comes down to luck. One wrong move and a RB can be done for the season or his QB could be out making his job tougher. There are so many factors that we can't control and some we can't even plan for (like referee error). When the games starts it is all a crapshoot, but that doesn't exonerate us of all responsibility. Preparation can help remove some of the power of luck.