Luck (1 Viewer)

[Clavin]

Something Jason Wood wrote got me thinking about luck: Can you tell statistically when a player has had a lucky year that won’t be replicated? Can you differentiate that from a breakout year that represents a trend?

In baseball, I think stats like BABIP (batting average on balls in play) are used to try and determine when a player is especially lucky or unlucky. I now it’s a different game.

But how do you measure “luck’ in FF?

 

[eoMMan]

If you could tell for sure, then it wouldn't be luck. It would be skill.

 

[matuski]

We are trying to predict the future. It is largely luck.

 

[CalBear]

Something Jason Wood wrote got me thinking about luck: Can you tell statistically when a player has had a lucky year that won't be replicated? Can you differentiate that from a breakout year that represents a trend?In baseball, I think stats like BABIP (batting average on balls in play) are used to try and determine when a player is especially lucky or unlucky. I now it's a different game. But how do you measure "luck' in FF?

The sabermetricians don't do so well at football, because it is nearly impossible to isolate one player's contribution from the contributions of everyone else. (Except for kickers). Most of the groups who try to apply statistical methods to football (by metrics like catch percentage per target) wind up looking fairly silly, because there are just too many variables in play. My answer is, no, I don't think you can tell statistically. You have to look at a guy like Brandon Lloyd and assess his prospects for repeating his performance based on his talent and situation.

 

[zilladog]

The best way to determine if a player got lucky would be to go and watch the games and individual plays where the player got his stats, and then determine for yourself if the stats were a result of luck (blown coverage,missed block, etc.) Nfl.com has a great service where you can pay to watch the previous years games online. I suggest you try there.

No stats, sabermetrics, or message board threads will ever be a substitute for watching and studying the actual games.

Edit: although I will say that pro football focus does a great job of putting measurable stats to a players performance over a year.

 

[Dentist]

The main problem with football is that the sample sizes for games is WAY too small, and the weather and schedule can be such a huge factor.

Baseball and basketball are sabermetric dream sports because the weather is almost always fairly controlled, the number of games are enough to get into the "long run", and the schedule is pretty consistent from year to year.

NFL football, and fantasy football in general has by far and away the most luck associated with it compared to baseball, basketball, and probably even hockey for that matter.

1 or 2 monster games can affect your end of year statistics so much it's unreal in football.

See Dwayne Bowe being ranked in the top 10-12 WR's?

Dude had like 4-5 insane games last year and a ton of crappy ones. The guy blows. Yet those end of year stats look great and someone's going to bite on him and make a huge error.

It's football's randomness that makes it work though... in baseball or basketball it's surely the guy who spends the most time on it and plays correctly that wins.

Football is more like poker where you can have Aces and still get served by 72 offsuit... and it's that randomness that allows the people not wanting to put the time in, to occasionally win.

Effort still matters - we have a guy in our league who drafts and forgets it... almost never changes his lineup, and most certainly is never going to make a transaction... he's not going to win very often if ever.... but your effort won't matter as much to you in FFL with it's one and done playoff formats compared to other sports.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

But how do you measure “luck’ in FF?

He will be the best QB in the league by his 3rd year in the NFL

 

[jurb26]

But how do you measure “luck’ in FF?

He will be the best QB in the league by his 3rd year in the NFL

I actually entered the thread thinking it was about him... oh well.

 

[Clavin]

Thanks for the input. Good stuff.

LOL on Luck. Like this subject, he is another "sure thing." Like the year I overdrafted Curtis martin because he was amazingly reliable and I had been burned by Williams and Taylor injuries. Then he misses essentially the entire season.

 

[ImTheScientist]

But how do you measure “luck’ in FF?

He will be the best QB in the league by his 3rd year in the NFL

I actually entered the thread thinking it was about him... oh well.

Same here, only to be disappointed. :(

 

[CalBear]

Thanks for the input. Good stuff. LOL on Luck. Like this subject, he is another "sure thing." Like the year I overdrafted Curtis martin because he was amazingly reliable and I had been burned by Williams and Taylor injuries. Then he misses essentially the entire season.

Uh, what year was that? Martin never played less than 12 games in his career.

 

[griff321]

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Next year this thread will be 12 pages long...

 

[UnknownCoach]

Something Jason Wood wrote got me thinking about luck: Can you tell statistically when a player has had a lucky year that won’t be replicated? Can you differentiate that from a breakout year that represents a trend?In baseball, I think stats like BABIP (batting average on balls in play) are used to try and determine when a player is especially lucky or unlucky. I now it’s a different game. But how do you measure “luck’ in FF?

If a WR has averaged 5 TDs over several season and suddenly gets 12 with a simuliar number of receptions that's lucky. If a WR averages 9 TDs over several seasons and suddenly gets only 3 that's unlucky. I would say YPR is something simuliar. The main time a RB gets lucky is if there is a penalty on the defense that puts the ball near the end zone on first down. Still there are RBs who get short yardage calls and those who dont based on their skill. For a feature back, this is often too small a number to impact his fantasy value. It does have a big impact on backup RBs who are short yardage specialists.QB interceptions and fumbles are often bad luck. If a QB averages 15 INTs over several seasons and suddenly gets 25, it was likely just an unlucky year. QB rushing TDs are also often lucky because many of them come from sneaks when you are inches from the line. YPA and passing TDs sometimes have an unusual number as well but you have to look at completions and completion percentage before you consider them as luck.Quantity of passing attempts, rushing attempts, or receptions isnt luck, its the product of the entire team's performance including (but not entirely) the skill of the individual player.