San Francisco 49ers: How Much More Does Frank Gore Have in the Tank? By
Bryan Knowles , Featured Columnist Jan 28, 2014One of the biggest decisions awaiting the
San Francisco 49ers this offseason is what to do with
Frank Gore.
The running back will turn 31 years old in May and is currently slated to count nearly
$6.5 million against the salary cap next season. With young draft picks like Marcus Lattimore and LaMichael James on the roster behind him, and with players like
Colin Kaepernick and Aldon Smith looking for long-term contract extensions, that’s quite a bit of money to have allotted to an aging running back.
Running backs tend to decline quite notably once they hit
27 or 28, and 31-year-old running backs haven’t precisely lit up the world. Linked here is the
complete list of 31-year-old running backs since the
NFL season expanded to 16 games in 1978.
Only 11 times did a running back top the 1,000-yard mark, most recently Thomas Jones in 2009 for the
New York Jets. The median running back, Earnest Byner, barely trumped 100 yards. Obviously, that’s not worth $6.5 million a year.
That’s an overly simplistic analysis, however, as Gore isn’t an average NFL running back.
He rushed for 1,128 yards this season, good for
17th best among all 30-year-olds. His 1,214 yards the year before moves him up to
13th among 29-year-olds as well. He’s not on his last legs—far from it. He was able to handle a large workload of 292 touches, with very little help in the passing game for much of the year, and still managed to roll to 4.1 yards per attempt—a very respectable figure.
Of course, that figure is again a bit misleading, as Gore did wind down as the season wore on. Here are his splits in the first and second halves of the season, including the three playoff games:
Games: 1-9
Attempts -
162
Yards -
700
Yards per attempt - 4
.32
Games: 10-19
Attempts -
162
Yards -
592
Yards per attempt -
3.65
You can try to spin that as a workhorse back getting tired toward the end of a long season, but Gore’s drop-off is a bit extreme, even for that. Is it a fluke—a small-sample-size situation filled with tougher teams late in the season? Or is it the canary in the coal mine, an indicator that Gore’s numbers balance on the edge of a cliff?
First thing’s first—we can see from Gore’s
career splits that he isn’t a significantly worse rusher late in the season, so this isn’t a normal progression for Gore. In fact, his worst month has historically been September, as he gets into gear. So this isn’t simply just business as usual for Gore.
There is no magic way to accurately predict how much gas a back has left in the tank, but let’s take a couple of shots at it anyway.
Back in 2006, Doug Drinen, then of Pro-Football-Reference, attempted to come up with a way of calculating a running back’s
future success based on comparing all previous players and using advanced math to come up with a formula for determining just how many more yards a running back could be expected to gain over the course of his career.
I did the same math, taking the
98 running backs who started at least one game in their age-29, -30 and -31 seasons—Gore’s likely to still be the starter next season, so we need to exclude career backups who got a carry every now and again.
It’s not the prettiest list ever, as only 31 of them even had 1,000 more yards left in their NFL careers. The median player, instead, was a player like Eddie George who had one more season of 432 yards left in him before calling it a career.
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