Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2011 Player Spotlight Series

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Thread Topic: Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints

Player Page Link: Mark Ingram Player Page

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[jacobo_moses]

I have great interest in Mark Ingram as I hold the no 2 Rookie Pick and need an RB. So to put some perspective in the last time NO drafted an RB in the 1st Rnd it was Reggie Bush. Here was Bush's first year stats.

Reggie Bush Rookie Year

155 Rushes and 565 Yards 6tds and 88 REC for 742 Yards and 2 TD's.

So I think Mark Ingram does this

185 Rushes and 785 Yards 8 TDs and 38 REC for 288 Yards and 1 TD.

I might be way off here. BUt I think this is doable for Ingram.

 

[Jason Wood]

I have great interest in Mark Ingram as I hold the no 2 Rookie Pick and need an RB. So to put some perspective in the last time NO drafted an RB in the 1st Rnd it was Reggie Bush. Here was Bush's first year stats.Reggie Bush Rookie Year155 Rushes and 565 Yards 6tds and 88 REC for 742 Yards and 2 TD's.So I think Mark Ingram does this185 Rushes and 785 Yards 8 TDs and 38 REC for 288 Yards and 1 TD.I might be way off here. BUt I think this is doable for Ingram.

I think you're way undershooting the mark. Ultimately I don't believe this is going to be much of a time share as Ingram is an NFL-ready, 3-down runner that the Saints went up and got. I suspect Bush will only be back if he takes a substantial paycut, and I'm not sure his ego will allow that. Even so, the real odd man out may be Pierre Thomas (in terms of playing time, they'll keep him for insurance). As talented as Thomas may be, his inability to stay on the field was both mysterious and maddening, and I don't think it's lost on anyone that New Orleans had to use a rotating bevy of runners all season long. With their offensive line, and the maturity of that passing game, I see a real opportunity for Ingram to step in and get at least 250 carries this year.

 

[jacobo_moses]

Some good points Jason. I think in reality Ingram probably will get somewhere between my prediction of 185 Carries and your 250. Call it like 220 at the most. Rememeber in college he was in a pretty good timeshare last year with Trent Richardson. I think it was like a 60/40 split, maybe 70/30 split with Richardson. But Ingram is going to a pass heavy team where as Alabama was a smash mouth running team.

So I think Ingrams cap is about 220 carries he gets at the very most. I think that is due to Ivory having some fumbling issues, and Pierre Thomas has been to injury plagued to handle more then 8 to 12 carries. And I do think your right on Bush. I'd say he is gone as of now.

Ingram should be a decent RB2 in even Redraft leagues I would think.

 

[Scooby1974]

Some good points Jason. I think in reality Ingram probably will get somewhere between my prediction of 185 Carries and your 250. Call it like 220 at the most. Rememeber in college he was in a pretty good timeshare last year with Trent Richardson. I think it was like a 60/40 split, maybe 70/30 split with Richardson. But Ingram is going to a pass heavy team where as Alabama was a smash mouth running team.

So I think Ingrams cap is about 220 carries he gets at the very most. I think that is due to Ivory having some fumbling issues, and Pierre Thomas has been to injury plagued to handle more then 8 to 12 carries. And I do think your right on Bush. I'd say he is gone as of now.

Ingram should be a decent RB2 in even Redraft leagues I would think.

Lets keep in mind too that both Ingram and Richardson both have first round NFL RB measurables/talent/skill likely making them better runners than any of the 2010 NO Saints RB's. We also know that Colston is coming off a 2nd Micro fracture surgery and the rest of the NO WR's are good but not exactly world beaters. Brees throwing to them make them MUCH better. I think Ingram helps to balance out the NO Offensive attack that has been forced to rely more heavily on the passing game. I could see Brees's completion percentage and yards increasing due to threat of a SERIOUS running game. At the same time, that passing attack will open up monster holes for Ingram so the rushing yards will go up across the board. The NO offense will sustain more drives, leading to more yardage and more TD's all around. All the ships in the harbor rise with Ingram on board.I tend to agree with Jason Wood and could see Ingram pulling off those stats with a 70/30 or 80/20 split in the backfield.

The 2010 Saints produced 1479 rushing yards on 349 carries for a 4.2 ypc average and 9 rushing TD's. I'd say that is probably close to Ingram's floor. Ivory (an UFA) averaged a stellar 5.2 ypc. Ingram is twice the talent and will see the ball more, so if he comes in and gets 250 carries on his own and averages a conservative 4.6 ypc he throws up 1150 yards in his sleep. 300 carries and we're looking at 1380 yards rushing. If Ivory had 5 TD's on 137 carries and we double the carries for Ingram...we are obviously guessing here, but Ingram's floor is 10 Td's.

NO produced 737 yards receiving on 118 reception for an average of 6.2 ypr and scored 2 TD's. If Ingram is any part of the passing game and can outproduce the likes of PT, Chris Ivory, Julius Jones, and Reggie Bush (admittedly Bush might have the advantage here) we'll see a jump in yardage, average, and likely TD's due to more and longer sustained drives.

I see his floor being around here:

250 carries, 1150, 8-10 TD's

40 receptions, 275 yards, 2-3 TD's

If Ingram averaged the same 5.2 ypc that Ivory did his floor increases to:

250 carries, 1300, 8-10 TD's

300 carries, 1560, 10-15 TD's

 

[jacobo_moses]

Well Scooby1974 if thats true and he gets even close to those stats. When I draft him with the no 2 overall pick in my Rookie Draft I will be like

:IBTL:

 

[Lash]

i can't believe ANYONE would think that Ingram won't be THE MAN right away!!!

i mean haven't they learned from History?!?!

i don't understand why people can't grasp the fact that if a team drafts a RB in the first round SURELY they mean to hand him the job

IND spent a first round pick on Joseph Addai and didn't he become the man right away?

NE spent a first round pick on Laurence Maroney and didn't he become the man right away?

NO spent a first round pick on Deuce McAllister and didn't he become the man right away?

AZ spent a first round pick on Beanie Wells and didn't he become the man right away?

ATL spent a first round pick on TJ Duckett and didn't he become the man right away?

STL spent a first round pick on Steven Jackson and didn't he become the man right away?

CAR spent a first round pick on DeAngelo Williams and didn't he become the man right away?

CHI spent a first round pick on Cedric Benson and didn't he become the man right away?

SD spent (traded up to) a first round pick on Ryan Mathews and didn't he become the man right away?

CAR spent a first round pick on Jonathan Stewart and didn't he become the man right away?

DAL spent a first round pick on Felix Jones and didn't he become the man right away?

NO spent a first round pick on Reggie Bush and didn't he become the man right away?

PIT spent a first round pick on Rashard Mendenhall and didn't he become the man right away?

SEA spent a first round pick on Shaun Alexander and didn't he become the man right away?

OAK spent a first round pick on Darren McFadden and didn't he become the man right away?

STL spent a first round pick on Trung Candidate and didn't he become the man right away?

CLE spent a first round pick on William Green and didn't he become the man right away?

AZ spent a first round pick on Thomas Jones and didn't he become the man right away?

MIA spent a first round pick on Ronnie Brown and didn't he become the man right away?

BUF spent a first round pick on CJ Spiller and didn't he become the man right away?

NYG spent a first round pick on Ron Dayne and didn't he become the man right away?

BAL spent a first round pick on WIllis McGahee (and his one heathy leg) and didn't he become the man right away?

IND spent a first round pick on Donald Brown and didn't he become the man right away?

CIN spent a first round pick on Chris Perry and didn't he become the man right away?

KC spent a first round pick on Larry Johnson and didn't he become the man right away?



all kidding aside ... Pierre Thomas is ALOT better than some of the competition the above RBs faced - if you get caught up in PT's pedigree, remember that 1st round pick Mendenhall sat the bench at Illinois watching PT run 1st team



don't know whether Knowshon Moreno or Michael Bennett were the sole RB for their team that produced fantasy stats, but i can think of 8 since 2000 that basically were RB1's immediately ... LT, ADP, Kevin Jones, Jamal Lewis, Lynch, Caddy, CJohnson, Best (and he lasted one year as "The Man")

not saying in 2012 or 2013 Ingram won't be studly

but history says be patient year one (at least)



saying all that, i DO believe he will be the goalline back so 8-11 TDs are easily attainable, but i don't think he gets 1000 yards

 

[LHUCKS]

If Ingram averaged the same 5.2 ypc that Ivory did his floor increases to:250 carries, 1300, 8-10 TD's300 carries, 1560, 10-15 TD's

Ummm no.In the history of the NFL do you know how many rookies have carried the ball 250 times? The list is short. Further, how many 250 carry seasons has the Sean Payton era seen in New Orleans? You won't like the answer.1100 yards rushing300 yards receiving10 TDsThe most positive factor here is that Ingram is without question the best goalline back on the team.

 

[Lash]

also adding to the above, NO didn't get him a playbook before the lockout was reinstated ... I know RBs need some of the least amount of playbook study of any position but the pass blocking assignments would have been neat for him to pick up at least on paper

 

[LHUCKS]

also adding to the above, NO didn't get him a playbook before the lockout was reinstated ... I know RBs need some of the least amount of playbook study of any position but the pass blocking assignments would have been neat for him to pick up at least on paper

 

[We Tigers]

After a quick glance at the stats for the past few years, that first "floor" would have put him somewhere between RB7 and RB13 from 2006-2010. Methinks you might be a bit optimistic calling that a floor.

 

[jacobo_moses]

After a quick glance at the stats for the past few years, that first "floor" would have put him somewhere between RB7 and RB13 from 2006-2010. Methinks you might be a bit optimistic calling that a floor.

I agree

 

[LawFitz]

I think Pierre Thomas (IF healthy) will steal a lot of Ingram's thunder this season. It's too easy to get caught up in a hot shot rookie, but the reality is that PT is a solid RB when health permits. Add in Ivory and maybe even Bush and I see a nasty RBBC brewing that will severely limit Ingram's stat making ability this season.

It would take a truly exceptional talent to grab the lion's share here as a rookie IMO. And while I like Ingram a lot, he's no AP and the other Nawlins backs aren't going to just roll over for him.

 

[Jason Wood]

If Ingram averaged the same 5.2 ypc that Ivory did his floor increases to:250 carries, 1300, 8-10 TD's300 carries, 1560, 10-15 TD's

Ummm no.In the history of the NFL do you know how many rookies have carried the ball 250 times? The list is short.

It's only happened 39 times in NFL history.

Further, how many 250 carry seasons has the Sean Payton era seen in New Orleans? You won't like the answer.

Hasn't happened, yet.I would counter though that, to my mind, he hasn't had a back of Ingram's caliber to warrant 250+ carries.

 

[jacobo_moses]

If Ingram averaged the same 5.2 ypc that Ivory did his floor increases to:250 carries, 1300, 8-10 TD's300 carries, 1560, 10-15 TD's

Ummm no.In the history of the NFL do you know how many rookies have carried the ball 250 times? The list is short.

It's only happened 39 times in NFL history.

Further, how many 250 carry seasons has the Sean Payton era seen in New Orleans? You won't like the answer.

Hasn't happened, yet.I would counter though that, to my mind, he hasn't had a back of Ingram's caliber to warrant 250+ carries.

Good point Jason. When has NO had a do everything back lately? Deuce a little while back. PT is good but he just doesn't have the body to handle the pounding I think.

 

[Scooby1974]

If Ingram averaged the same 5.2 ypc that Ivory did his floor increases to:250 carries, 1300, 8-10 TD's300 carries, 1560, 10-15 TD's

Ummm no.In the history of the NFL do you know how many rookies have carried the ball 250 times? The list is short. Further, how many 250 carry seasons has the Sean Payton era seen in New Orleans? You won't like the answer.1100 yards rushing300 yards receiving10 TDsThe most positive factor here is that Ingram is without question the best goalline back on the team.

The Ivory reference was meant to be more tongue in cheek. Incidentally, who expected Chris Ivory to average 5.2 yards a carry? I don't expect a 5.2 ypc, but I could see 4.6 being a safe estimation since The Chris Ivory did indeed average 5.2.2010Chris Johnson: 316 carriesADP: 283 carriesArian Foster:327 carriesAnd no, I don't know how many rookies carried the ball 250 times, care to enlighten us? Perhaps 250 carries for a rookie is premature, I could be getting ahead of myself. But in light of the numbers above I would still throw Ingram in the 225-250 range. As for the Sean Peyton era, haven't we been over this a million times already? How many first round backs has Payton had at his disposal that can run between the tackles? He translates well, FAR better than Reggie "I'm faster than everyone else so I'll just run around the end every time" Bush.

 

[We Tigers]

The Saints don't run a ton. They've only hit 400 RB carries in 2 of 5 seasons that Payton's been coaching--then again, those were the two years they 1) reached the NFC championship game, and 2) won the Super Bowl, so maybe they ought to pound it a bit more. Either way, that's still not a huge total.

I think Bush will be gone, but I don't necessarily know that all his pieces of the playbook will be. Can Thomas step in and handle the quick screens and the moves to the edge that have proved so effective for the Saints? That's not really Ingram's game. Maybe those plays will go away after all. Either way, I think the Saints will want to ride Ingram, but that he might stay 2-downs early and let more experienced players pick up the pass protection. I think this might be especially true the longer the lockout goes on.

To me, it totally depends on what the roster looks like. I actually think Bush staying could serve Ingram better, as Bush would have obvious 3rd down responsibilities, while Pierre might get pushed to the background and let Ingram star. If Bush is gone, Pierre's the vet who's a bit more trusted in pass protection, and he'll have the chance to earn more playing time just by virtue of being on the field in more situations.

In either scenario, I do see Ingram having a hard time getting to 250 carries, and could see him with as few as 150-180. Great player with a bright future, but it might take a year or two. Unless there are very clear signs in the preseason, he'll probably be a player I avoid at whatever his ADP ends up being, as you never really can be sure what's gonna happen in the New Orleans offense.

 

[BeTheMatch]

also adding to the above, NO didn't get him a playbook before the lockout was reinstated ... I know RBs need some of the least amount of playbook study of any position but the pass blocking assignments would have been neat for him to pick up at least on paper

Really? You don't think Drew Brees might lend him a copy?

 

[Truly Yours]

I think that the Saints offense will still run through Brees. A pass happy offense also requires the RBs to pass block a lot, and the Saints will not risk Brees getting too many shots. How good Ingrams pass blocking abilities are is something which is hard to guess at this point in time, but may ultimately decide how many snaps he will be on the field, especially early in the season.

P.Thomas also got a new four year contract, Thomas knows the system andthe extended play book, and the lock out hurts Ingram developing some chemistry with his team mates, which I believe makes Ingram more part of a RBBC for this year. While he may take over as a clear starter next year, this year the Saints will ease him in to keep all RBs fresh for a deep play off run.

200 Rushes and 880 Yards 8 TDs and 29 REC for 232 Yards and 1 TD.

Truly Yours

 

[Getinthemix]

also adding to the above, NO didn't get him a playbook before the lockout was reinstated ... I know RBs need some of the least amount of playbook study of any position but the pass blocking assignments would have been neat for him to pick up at least on paper

Really? You don't think Drew Brees might lend him a copy?

Exactly. I can see it now. Brees is running workouts in NO for the O and makes Ingram go sit in the corner with his back to the team while the run plays. He will get a playbook.

 

[Breesisdaman]

I think the Saints have the record for the team that has drafted the most Heisman trophy winning RB's :George Rogers, Ricky Williams, Reggie Bush, Mark Ingram. Each one of those guys was drafted to take over the position and be the man. The only guy on this list that failed at "Being the man" was Reggie Bush. Perhaps todays NFL and RB's by committee tendencies and especially Sean Payton's tendencies played into this but I tend to think it was just the fact that Reggie just couldn't stay healthy. Mark Ingram will get the bulk of the carries in New Orleans because he will be that much better than the other RB's on the roster. The Saints do not prefer a pound it out run first type offense but then again they would like to pass less and be more balanced. It is when they find this balance (Super bowl year) that they have been the most successful. The main thing that I see as a value for Mark Ingram is that he will get most of the goal line carries in an offense that will likely be at the goal line a lot and he will not need 30 carries a game to put up crazy fantasy points for owners.

180 to 200 carries for 1000 to 1400 yards

300 yards pass receiving

14 TD's rushing

4 TDs as a receiver

 

[shader]

I'm probably higher on Ingram than anyone on this board.

That being said, I wouldn't be extremely high on him in re-draft right now. Just too much uncertainty.

Yes, he is significantly better than Thomas and Ivory, imo.

But Thomas was a vital member of a super bowl winning team. He's not going to go ride the pine for a rookie.

I think Thomas starts out the season as the starter, out of respect more than anything else.

Ingram will notch 15 carries a game though, and by mid-season his dominance will be apparent.

230 carries, 1150 yards, 12 td's

(If Saints were smart, they'd trade Pierre, sign Reggie long-term and make Ivory backup. Perfect solution)

 

[greggorymac]

I think that the Saints offense will still run through Brees. A pass happy offense also requires the RBs to pass block a lot, and the Saints will not risk Brees getting too many shots. How good Ingrams pass blocking abilities are is something which is hard to guess at this point in time, but may ultimately decide how many snaps he will be on the field, especially early in the season. P.Thomas also got a new four year contract, Thomas knows the system andthe extended play book, and the lock out hurts Ingram developing some chemistry with his team mates, which I believe makes Ingram more part of a RBBC for this year. While he may take over as a clear starter next year, this year the Saints will ease him in to keep all RBs fresh for a deep play off run.200 Rushes and 880 Yards 8 TDs and 29 REC for 232 Yards and 1 TD.Truly Yours

Couldn't have said it better. That is what I expect for 2011 with a much increased role beyond. I will be targeting him in my keeper league with RB2 expectations this year, while project Top 5 performance for 2012.

 

[Breesisdaman]

(If Saints were smart, they'd trade Pierre, sign Reggie long-term and make Ivory backup. Perfect solution)

I think after going through so many backs last year they will wait a year to trade PT . Perhaps they still will renegotiate with Bush. Here is the latest Bush news where he says the Saints are his first choice of teams he wants to play for in spite of what he tweeted.http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2011/05/new_orleans_saints_rb_reggie_b_9.html The Saints want another ring and will not allow themselves to be shorthanded at this position again. Next year however is a different story and if PT or Bush can prove to be healthy over a full season they will fetch a lot more in trade value.

 

[gandalas]

all kidding aside ... Pierre Thomas is ALOT better than some of the competition the above RBs faced - if you get caught up in PT's pedigree, remember that 1st round pick Mendenhall sat the bench at Illinois watching PT run 1st team

This was already disproved in the other thread, but again here: a true sophomore Mendenall had the same number of TDs and averaged 3 YPC more than 4th year senior Pierre Thomas behind the same line, the same year. I see something like 950 yards, 8 TD on the ground, 400 and 3 more through the air for him in year 1.

 

[greggorymac]

(If Saints were smart, they'd trade Pierre, sign Reggie long-term and make Ivory backup. Perfect solution)

I think after going through so many backs last year they will wait a year to trade PT . Perhaps they still will renegotiate with Bush. Here is the latest Bush news where he says the Saints are his first choice of teams he wants to play for in spite of what he tweeted.http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2011/05/new_orleans_saints_rb_reggie_b_9.html

The Saints want another ring and will not allow themselves to be shorthanded at this position again. Next year however is a different story and if PT or Bush can prove to be healthy over a full season they will fetch a lot more in trade value.

Thanks for posting Bushisdaman. It looks like Reggie is finally conceding publicly that he will have to take a sizable pay cut. I think if Bush decides to stay on we should all re-evaluate our Ingram projections... Especially his long term outlook because Bush would be securing the 3rd down role for years to come.

 

[cvnpoka]

all kidding aside ... Pierre Thomas is ALOT better than some of the competition the above RBs faced - if you get caught up in PT's pedigree, remember that 1st round pick Mendenhall sat the bench at Illinois watching PT run 1st team

This was already disproved in the other thread, but again here: a true sophomore Mendenall had the same number of TDs and averaged 3 YPC more than 4th year senior Pierre Thomas behind the same line, the same year.

and shard had almost half as many carries (172 to 68.) sure seems to me that pierre beat him out of the lead gig.

 

[Clifford]

I believe that Ingram is a vastly higher pedigree back than anyone they have on the roster. If you watched the iron bowl he was killing it in that game so I think the knee issue is over.

He is no Chris Johnson, that's for sure, and you have to factor in a few adjustment games early. However once he gets his feet under him and his head isn't spinning the sky is the limit on that offense. He literally landed in the perfect spot for maximizing his fantasy value.

275 ru x 4.7 = 1293 and 10

20 rec x 8 = 160 and 3

However I think NO could give him more, and I think he actually could average around 5

 

[Scooby1974]

all kidding aside ... Pierre Thomas is ALOT better than some of the competition the above RBs faced - if you get caught up in PT's pedigree, remember that 1st round pick Mendenhall sat the bench at Illinois watching PT run 1st team

This was already disproved in the other thread, but again here: a true sophomore Mendenall had the same number of TDs and averaged 3 YPC more than 4th year senior Pierre Thomas behind the same line, the same year.

and shard had almost half as many carries (172 to 68.) sure seems to me that pierre beat him out of the lead gig.

So 'Shard sucked half as less as a sophomore as PT did, that is saying something. Of course coaches are going to give the Senior run if they can. Why risk getting their sophomore stud (see future) hurt if they can run their better than average down back into the ground in "meaningless time"?

 

[cvnpoka]

maybe mendenhall was torching 3rd stringers in garbage time and his ridiculous 8.2 yards per carry over a small sample size was not indicative of his true ability or his ability relative to pierre. esp when you take into account his numbers the previous year 49 carries at 4.5 ypc. maybe the coaches are morons that cant spot talent. maybe the coaches are morons that were intentionally putting worse players on the field.

i dunno. i do know that pierre was the lead back over mendenhall for 2 years.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

2009 Saints (vs 2010 version):

6th in rushing yards (2010 = 28th)

4th in rushing TD's (26)

5th in rushing 1st downs (16)

7th in attempts (30)

5th in YPC (22)

+ The run/pass rationwas much cloer to 50/50 in 2009 than in 2010 (and other Peyton years as well).

Peyton has something cooked up for using Ingram, it's already in the works. Just like Graham 2010, just like Meachem 2009, just like Colston 2006.... folks, every year it is something, a new wrinkle.

Peyton tried to trade up to get Beanie Wells when he came out; this has been in the works for a while.

Give the Saints the Iron Bowl Ingram.... and he will soon be called....

The Kingram.

Because the Saints with a running game is a scarey thing.

 

[fightingillini]

Ingram is coming into a very good situation. R Bush may be gone, and P Thomas can't stay healthy. So you could see a talented Ingram come in and get 240+ carries and 30+ receptions. But I will be a little conservative here.

210 car, 900 yds, 7TD

30 rec, 220 yds, 1TD

 

[greggorymac]

I think with Reggie's recent retraction, odds are that he will restructure. I think until something is finalized we have to assume from this point forward that Reggie, Pierre, and Ingram will all be on the team in 2011.

How will having Reggie there affect Ingram's 2011 and beyond value?

If Reggie were leaving I think Ingram had a good shot at taking over for Pierre on third downs in 2012 (if not in 2011), but now I see the 3rd down role locked up (by Bush) for the foreseeable future. Thoughts?

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Mark Ingram is the perfect running back for the Saints. He comes into a pass first system, and he will wake up the defense considerably on delay draws and play action runs. He has a burst, power, and vision that are NFL quality, and he will easily outclass incumbent Pierre Thomas for the lion’s share of the carries. Bush may or may not return, but if he does, it will be as a COP back. The Saints powerful aerial attack has been the platform for RBBC successes, with a mix/match of average running backs. This is the one place where even a guy like Julius Jones can look good. With Ingram in the fold, expect the end of the RBBC in New Orleans.

Ingram has the chance to be a star out of the chute. He’s in a situation where he could get 5 ypc and double digit TD’s.

Projection: 260/1250/9 with 28/250/2

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

If Ingram averaged the same 5.2 ypc that Ivory did his floor increases to:250 carries, 1300, 8-10 TD's300 carries, 1560, 10-15 TD's

Ummm no.In the history of the NFL do you know how many rookies have carried the ball 250 times? The list is short.

It's only happened 39 times in NFL history.

Further, how many 250 carry seasons has the Sean Payton era seen in New Orleans? You won't like the answer.

Hasn't happened, yet.I would counter though that, to my mind, he hasn't had a back of Ingram's caliber to warrant 250+ carries.

Many of the FBG prognosticators hang their hat on history when looking at their projections. Although you're right, he could get 250 carriers if there hasn't been a running back to get 250 carriers under Peyton, it's more likely that it won't happen than it will. So when making an educated guess, it's probably safer to pick the under 250 carries.I think the guy is going to be a TD machine. Peyton will have fun handing him the ball inside the 5 yard line, I look for Brees not to get those cheap 2 yard passes for TD's that we've been used to the last several years.220 carries, 980 yards and 10 td's.28 receptions for 240 yards and 2 td's

 

[Hoosier16]

If Ingram averaged the same 5.2 ypc that Ivory did his floor increases to:250 carries, 1300, 8-10 TD's300 carries, 1560, 10-15 TD's

Ummm no.In the history of the NFL do you know how many rookies have carried the ball 250 times? The list is short.

It's only happened 39 times in NFL history.

Further, how many 250 carry seasons has the Sean Payton era seen in New Orleans? You won't like the answer.

Hasn't happened, yet.I would counter though that, to my mind, he hasn't had a back of Ingram's caliber to warrant 250+ carries.

McAllister had 244 in 15 games in 2006, Payton's first year. That would be a 16 game pace of 260.

 

[rzrback77]

I love the work ethic of bringing it every carry that Mark Ingram had in his collegiate years at Alabama. I think that the comparisons to Emmit Smith are premature, but seemingly possible.

My biggest issue is that the New Orleans coaching staff and particularly head coach Sean Payton are interested in making the best use of all their available weapons. As is the case with Drew Brees spreading the receptions around to a bunch of different WRs and TEs, I can see roles for Ingram, Bush, Thomas, and even Ivory for the coming season. I will be very surprised if Ingram gets the lion's share of the RB duties as a rookie, especially missing all of the off-season workouts and normal team activities.

I think that Mark Ingram is an excellent dynasty RB that will grow into a larger role with the Saints, but I foresee more limited opportunities for his success in redrafts for 2011.

Mark Ingram 16 gms 172 carries 791 yds 4.6 ypc with 32 targets 25 catches 175 yds 7.0 ypc and 6 total TDs

edit for typo on the reception yardage

 

[mjr]

I think the NO ground game takes on a look closer their 2009 season, with PT playing about 150 snaps as he did then, but with a much lower average than the 5.4 it was. More like 3.5 for about 525 yards and 5 TDs. Ingram fills the Mike Bell role and gets about 200 totes with....I'll say a 4.6 average, for 920 yards and 9 TDs. All other backs on the roster split up another 100 or so carries for an average of 4, which gives NO between 1800-1900 yards on the ground for the season from the RBs on the roster. I'll give Ingram the average of 30 receptions for RBs in NO for 7 yards average. 210 yds and 2 TDs.

So, I'll say Ingram gets a total of 1130 yds and 11 TDs from scrimmage in 2011. I think he improves on that in 2012.

 

[Grahamburn]

Great post. There aren't too many realistic projections in here. This one was.

 

[Go deep]

220 carries, 1030 yards, 10 TD's, 28 rec, 240 yards, 1 TD

 

[Football Jones]

Ingram will have double-digit TDs, IMO. Make no mistake, this kid will be their feature back.

That doesn't mean others won't get touches, but the Saints have a potent offense. Ingram will easily get enough touches to be a stud.

 

[ThePittbully]

215 carries 989 yards 12 TD's

20 rec. 160 yards 1 TD

 

[greggorymac]

If Bush restructures and resigns with the team, how adversely will that affect Mark Ingram's 2011 numbers?

 

[laughinboy_2000]

I think the Saints have the record for the team that has drafted the most Heisman trophy winning RB's :George Rogers, Ricky Williams, Reggie Bush, Mark Ingram. Each one of those guys was drafted to take over the position and be the man. The only guy on this list that failed at "Being the man" was Reggie Bush. Perhaps todays NFL and RB's by committee tendencies and especially Sean Payton's tendencies played into this but I tend to think it was just the fact that Reggie just couldn't stay healthy. Mark Ingram will get the bulk of the carries in New Orleans because he will be that much better than the other RB's on the roster. The Saints do not prefer a pound it out run first type offense but then again they would like to pass less and be more balanced. It is when they find this balance (Super bowl year) that they have been the most successful. The main thing that I see as a value for Mark Ingram is that he will get most of the goal line carries in an offense that will likely be at the goal line a lot and he will not need 30 carries a game to put up crazy fantasy points for owners. 180 to 200 carries for 1000 to 1400 yards300 yards pass receiving 14 TD's rushing4 TDs as a receiver

18 TDS as a Rookie!!I must let it be known that I almost spewed out the cold coffee I have been drinking after reading those lofty projections. Yikes!

 

[sihaokills]

I think the Saints have the record for the team that has drafted the most Heisman trophy winning RB's :George Rogers, Ricky Williams, Reggie Bush, Mark Ingram. Each one of those guys was drafted to take over the position and be the man. The only guy on this list that failed at "Being the man" was Reggie Bush. Perhaps todays NFL and RB's by committee tendencies and especially Sean Payton's tendencies played into this but I tend to think it was just the fact that Reggie just couldn't stay healthy. Mark Ingram will get the bulk of the carries in New Orleans because he will be that much better than the other RB's on the roster. The Saints do not prefer a pound it out run first type offense but then again they would like to pass less and be more balanced. It is when they find this balance (Super bowl year) that they have been the most successful. The main thing that I see as a value for Mark Ingram is that he will get most of the goal line carries in an offense that will likely be at the goal line a lot and he will not need 30 carries a game to put up crazy fantasy points for owners. 180 to 200 carries for 1000 to 1400 yards300 yards pass receiving 14 TD's rushing4 TDs as a receiver

Jesus Christ i thought Brees was the man

 

[sihaokills]

I think Ingram will be a dominant RB soon but I wouldn't be too high on him for his rookie season. He has the O line, the offense, and a great coaching staff to propel him to a much higher level. Even though injuries bothered him last year, I dont think that would come in play. Ingram could catch and pass block which is crucial in that offense. I say he will get 950 rush yards 11 TDs 120 rec yards 2 TDs

 

[laughinboy_2000]

I think the Saints have the record for the team that has drafted the most Heisman trophy winning RB's :George Rogers, Ricky Williams, Reggie Bush, Mark Ingram. Each one of those guys was drafted to take over the position and be the man. The only guy on this list that failed at "Being the man" was Reggie Bush. Perhaps todays NFL and RB's by committee tendencies and especially Sean Payton's tendencies played into this but I tend to think it was just the fact that Reggie just couldn't stay healthy. Mark Ingram will get the bulk of the carries in New Orleans because he will be that much better than the other RB's on the roster. The Saints do not prefer a pound it out run first type offense but then again they would like to pass less and be more balanced. It is when they find this balance (Super bowl year) that they have been the most successful. The main thing that I see as a value for Mark Ingram is that he will get most of the goal line carries in an offense that will likely be at the goal line a lot and he will not need 30 carries a game to put up crazy fantasy points for owners. 180 to 200 carries for 1000 to 1400 yards300 yards pass receiving 14 TD's rushing4 TDs as a receiver

Jesus Christ i thought Brees was the man

I'm not even sure you can reach those numbers on the Madden 2012 game? Ha!

 

[gethugefast1]

Think Earl Campbell(5-11, 244-pound frame, coupled with 4.5 speed) light... Ingram (5-9, 215-pound frame, coupled with 4.6 speed)

Carries 261 Yards 1250 TDs 13

Rec 32 Yards 248 TDs 1

 

[johnadams]

I think the Saints have the record for the team that has drafted the most Heisman trophy winning RB's :George Rogers, Ricky Williams, Reggie Bush, Mark Ingram. Each one of those guys was drafted to take over the position and be the man. The only guy on this list that failed at "Being the man" was Reggie Bush. Perhaps todays NFL and RB's by committee tendencies and especially Sean Payton's tendencies played into this but I tend to think it was just the fact that Reggie just couldn't stay healthy. Mark Ingram will get the bulk of the carries in New Orleans because he will be that much better than the other RB's on the roster. The Saints do not prefer a pound it out run first type offense but then again they would like to pass less and be more balanced. It is when they find this balance (Super bowl year) that they have been the most successful. The main thing that I see as a value for Mark Ingram is that he will get most of the goal line carries in an offense that will likely be at the goal line a lot and he will not need 30 carries a game to put up crazy fantasy points for owners. 180 to 200 carries for 1000 to 1400 yards300 yards pass receiving 14 TD's rushing4 TDs as a receiver

18 TDS as a Rookie!!I must let it be known that I almost spewed out the cold coffee I have been drinking after reading those lofty projections. Yikes!

How about the 7 ypc? I don't see both PT and Reggie back. PT took a bit of an odd contract that looks to be very friendly from a trading perspective (granted, it's even friendlier in 2012). Almost looks like insurance if Bush does not come back. Ivory isn't the picture of health and IIRC, he just had a screw put into his ankle. I expect Ingram to start a bit slow and pick up towards the end of the season as whoever remains from PT/Bush/Ivory is bound to miss time due to injury. I'm seeing 230 carries, 1050 yds, 8 TDs with 25 reception for 200 yds and 1 TD, though I think he has a pretty high ceiling.

 

[bengalbuck]

I think the Saints have the record for the team that has drafted the most Heisman trophy winning RB's :George Rogers, Ricky Williams, Reggie Bush, Mark Ingram. Each one of those guys was drafted to take over the position and be the man. The only guy on this list that failed at "Being the man" was Reggie Bush. Perhaps todays NFL and RB's by committee tendencies and especially Sean Payton's tendencies played into this but I tend to think it was just the fact that Reggie just couldn't stay healthy. Mark Ingram will get the bulk of the carries in New Orleans because he will be that much better than the other RB's on the roster. The Saints do not prefer a pound it out run first type offense but then again they would like to pass less and be more balanced. It is when they find this balance (Super bowl year) that they have been the most successful. The main thing that I see as a value for Mark Ingram is that he will get most of the goal line carries in an offense that will likely be at the goal line a lot and he will not need 30 carries a game to put up crazy fantasy points for owners. 180 to 200 carries for 1000 to 1400 yards300 yards pass receiving 14 TD's rushing4 TDs as a receiver

18 TDS as a Rookie!!I must let it be known that I almost spewed out the cold coffee I have been drinking after reading those lofty projections. Yikes!

How about the 7 ypc? I don't see both PT and Reggie back. PT took a bit of an odd contract that looks to be very friendly from a trading perspective (granted, it's even friendlier in 2012). Almost looks like insurance if Bush does not come back. Ivory isn't the picture of health and IIRC, he just had a screw put into his ankle. I expect Ingram to start a bit slow and pick up towards the end of the season as whoever remains from PT/Bush/Ivory is bound to miss time due to injury. I'm seeing 230 carries, 1050 yds, 8 TDs with 25 reception for 200 yds and 1 TD, though I think he has a pretty high ceiling.

Haha, I noticed the 7 ypc on 200 carries also. That's pretty ridiculous.Personally, I am pretty high on Ingram, though it will be interesting to see how New Orleans O line looks after FA and if Bush is back. If the line looks good and Bush leaves, I could definitely see Ingram getting 250 carries and 30 catches along with all the goal line looks. Definitely a guy I am targeting in the 4th or 5th round.