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Mark Sanchez, QB, New York Jets (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Mark Sanchez, QB, New York Jets

Player Page Link: Mark Sanchez Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :lmao: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
Mark Sanchez had an up and down rookie campaign. One the plus side, he led his team to the playoffs. On the downside, he threw for 12 TDs against 20 ints and managed only 54.0% completions and 6.7 ypa. When looking forward to 2010, you have to consider that their modified RB stable. They discharged Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, but added rookie LaDainian Tomlinson and Joe McKnight. Shonn Greene should be the lead guy, but can LT remain effective?

Considering passing options, the RBs should be as good as a year ago as LT is an excellent target out of the backfield. They should provide Dustin Keller more targets as he can be a solid receiver. They keep Edwards and Cotchery and add Santonio Holmes, so there are definitely more options than a year ago.

The Jets should have an outstanding defense again and may use the running game to control the clock while they have leads, but it should be more of a luxury in 2010 than the requirement it was in 09. Sanchez should continue to grow, but the passing attack growth should be minimal. There will still be many better QB options than the Jets QB leading a potent running attack.

Mark Sanchez 270 completions in 460 attempts 58.7% 3174 yards 6.9 18 TDs & 16 ints 40 rushes for 120 yds & 1 TD

 
NY has done a good job getting Sanchez some weapons.....has 3 good WRs in Holmes, Cotchery and Edwards, and a good running game to take pressure off of Sanchez. I don't expect NY to start airing it out, and their defense will allow NY to play the with lead often, but I can see Sanchez managing the game and going for about 180-225 yds per game and 1 or 2 TDs. If he cuts down on the mistakes, he could be a decent QB2.

3200 yds passing, 19 TD, 15 Int

125 yds rushing, 2 TD.

 
Sanchez is going to be a hard one to project stats for in '10. His 12TD/20INT ratio looked horrid, but we all know what happened after the Buffalo game (5 ints), and how the coaches managed him better going forward. In 2010, he has one more receiver in Holmes and Edwards will have an offseason to work with his QB. The problem is that Ryan and Shotty Jr. know they do not need Sanchez to put up pinball numbers in order to win. If LT and Greene remain healthy, I still think this is going to be a running team with that great O-line. On the other hand, between Keller and the three Wrs (and even a great pass cathing RB in LT (remember he lost Washington pretty early last year)), he could grow into a 20+TD passer in 2010, but I doubt it. I see the following for Sanchez, but all bets are off if one of the RBs gets hurt; then I think they go to the air.

16TDs/14INTs, 3300 yards passing

170 yards rushing, 2 TDs

Decent, spot filler #2 QB

 
Sanchez should make strides in his second year as a starter, but despite adding S Holmes to the arsenal of weapons, I expect NYJ to stay committed to the run in 2010.

Pass Yds: 2855

Pass Tds; 16

Pass Ints: 15

Rush Yds: 125

Rush Tds 2

 
I really thought QB Mark Sanchez made some strides in improving his game from the beginning of the year and the QB we saw in the playoffs. This was a QB capable of making a few plays with his arm when asked to. Even though he was starting for the Trojans his senior year, he had very limited experience before he started for the Jets in his rookie year. I was unsure of Sanchez last year, I was sort of on the fence but if I have to come off that fence, I'd be in his backyard. He proved to me he's capable of playing and leading his team.

However, this team still appears to have a dominant defense and they love to run the ball. I think his passing numbers will be QB2 numbers at best but he'll continue to make gains in his overall game.

3000 yards 18 td's, 17 int's, 150 yards rushing, 1td

 
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somewhat of a sophomore slump is upcoming..he should still post decent #'s...I think the Jets overacheived last season,and will pull back just a tad this year..

2900 yards, 16TD, 16 INT, 7.4 per attempt, 55% comp..

certainly an improvement over 2009, but I'm more inclined to think the Jets will run the ball a lot in 2010...

 
Sweet Love said:
Sanchez is going to be a hard one to project stats for in '10. His 12TD/20INT ratio looked horrid, but we all know what happened after the Buffalo game (5 ints), and how the coaches managed him better going forward.
They should have started managing better during that game - I think most Jets fans and Bills fans for that matter (Check the game thread) were SHOCKED that the Jets were throwing the ball at all in that weather, With a lead Vs a team that wasn't stopping the run at all.... Were they just giving Sanchez a master test or something??? Weird play calling.I can't explain the coaching that game and I'm not sure exactly who Rex Ryan was putting the clamps on, Sanchez or Schottenheimer.... To me, those INT's bloated his numbers a bit along with others.Still, his Regular season numbers were very mediocre and he has a lot of growing up to do. That said, the playoffs were basically a 2nd season for him and I'm glad it happened the way it did - He gained a ton of experience playing on the road in playoff atmosphere and playing well...The #1 reason why I have confidence in him is his work ethic - Guy is a film room junkie / gym rat which IMO, make a huge difference especially at QB. He's no Jamarcus Russel.The fact that he had surgery on his knee and is still recovering worries me..... But, If healthy I can see3200 yds passing, 19 TD, 13 Int
 
somewhat of a sophomore slump is upcoming..he should still post decent #'s...I think the Jets overacheived last season,and will pull back just a tad this year..

2900 yards, 16TD, 16 INT, 7.4 per attempt, 55% comp..

certainly an improvement over 2009, but I'm more inclined to think the Jets will run the ball a lot in 2010...
It's not much of a slump when you throw for more yards, average more yards per attempt, complete a higher percentage of your passes, throw more touchdowns and throw fewer interceptions. :lmao:
 
3300 / 23 TD/ 18 INT

Good for a ranking near QB #15

Next season he overtakes Eli as the king QB in NY, I like him more than I ever liked Eli Manning. Stud potential here.

 
Sweet Love said:
Sanchez is going to be a hard one to project stats for in '10. His 12TD/20INT ratio looked horrid, but we all know what happened after the Buffalo game (5 ints), and how the coaches managed him better going forward.
They should have started managing better during that game - I think most Jets fans and Bills fans for that matter (Check the game thread) were SHOCKED that the Jets were throwing the ball at all in that weather, With a lead Vs a team that wasn't stopping the run at all.... Were they just giving Sanchez a master test or something??? Weird play calling.I can't explain the coaching that game and I'm not sure exactly who Rex Ryan was putting the clamps on, Sanchez or Schottenheimer.... To me, those INT's bloated his numbers a bit along with others.Still, his Regular season numbers were very mediocre and he has a lot of growing up to do. That said, the playoffs were basically a 2nd season for him and I'm glad it happened the way it did - He gained a ton of experience playing on the road in playoff atmosphere and playing well...The #1 reason why I have confidence in him is his work ethic - Guy is a film room junkie / gym rat which IMO, make a huge difference especially at QB. He's no Jamarcus Russel.The fact that he had surgery on his knee and is still recovering worries me..... But, If healthy I can see3200 yds passing, 19 TD, 13 Int
Yeah, the whole thing was bizzarre. In fact, the first thing that came to my mind during that game was when Parcells ran Murrell in 1997 (I believe) for something like 39 attempts. I feel Ryan did the same thing. Again, your guess is as good as mine as to why it played out that way and who he was trying to make a point to, but 5 INTs does not happen by mistake.
 
Sweet Love said:
Sanchez is going to be a hard one to project stats for in '10. His 12TD/20INT ratio looked horrid, but we all know what happened after the Buffalo game (5 ints), and how the coaches managed him better going forward.
They should have started managing better during that game - I think most Jets fans and Bills fans for that matter (Check the game thread) were SHOCKED that the Jets were throwing the ball at all in that weather, With a lead Vs a team that wasn't stopping the run at all.... Were they just giving Sanchez a master test or something??? Weird play calling.

I can't explain the coaching that game and I'm not sure exactly who Rex Ryan was putting the clamps on, Sanchez or Schottenheimer....

To me, those INT's bloated his numbers a bit along with others.

Still, his Regular season numbers were very mediocre and he has a lot of growing up to do. That said, the playoffs were basically a 2nd season for him and I'm glad it happened the way it did - He gained a ton of experience playing on the road in playoff atmosphere and playing well...

The #1 reason why I have confidence in him is his work ethic - Guy is a film room junkie / gym rat which IMO, make a huge difference especially at QB. He's no Jamarcus Russel.

The fact that he had surgery on his knee and is still recovering worries me.....

But, If healthy I can see

3200 yds passing, 19 TD, 13 Int
Yeah, the whole thing was bizzarre. In fact, the first thing that came to my mind during that game was when Parcells ran Murrell in 1997 (I believe) for something like 39 attempts. I feel Ryan did the same thing. Again, your guess is as good as mine as to why it played out that way and who he was trying to make a point to, but 5 INTs does not happen by mistake.
In those conditions, with a lead, Vs a defense that can't stop the run with a Green QB like Sanchez, Personally I blame Sanchez very little.

I think Joe Montana in his prime would have walked away from that game with mulitple INT's if asked to do the same.....

 
ok, but take away the 5 ints and it is still a bad season numbers-wise

i just think he is destined to be an aikman-like QB, better real than fantasy if he doesnt produce this year (Braylon/Holmes/Cotch/Keller/LT rival just about any other collection of pass catchers)

 
for perspective, some contemporary top QBs early in their career...

in order of 2009 finish by QB % ranking (omitting retired warner, and who is probably an outlier for several reasons)...

brees didn't play much as rookie, 17 TDs & 16 INTs in year two, 11 & 15 year three (in just 11 games), broke out year four - 27 & 7...

favre also didn't play much as rookie, 18 & 13 year two, 19 & 24 year three, broke out year four - 33 & 14...

phillip rivers barely played first two years, 22 & 9 year three, 21 & 15 year four...

aaron rodgers barely played first THREE years, understandably was a mature starter, year four 28 & 13, year five 30 & 7...

roethlisberger won super bowl as a rookie and was 17 & 11, year two 17 & 9, year three similar TDs but regressed on INTs - 18 & 23, broke out year four 32 & 11, than regressed again year five - 17 & 15...

peyton manning is a mutant and definite historical outlier for rookie QBs, did throw a lot of INTs, but also TDs - 26 & 28...

schaub barely played first three years, was 9 & 9, and 15 & 10 years four & five (both in 11 games), really broke out year six - 29 & 15 (his first complete season of 16 games as a starter)...

romo didn't throw a pass as rookie, than really hit the ground running with 19 & 13 year two, taking it to another level year three - 36 & 19...

brady had one completion as rookie, but once he started year two he was mature far beyond his years... 18 & 12, year three 28 & 14...

eli manning played in nine games as a rookie and was 6 & 9 (would have projected to numbers similar to sanchez over a full season)... in next three seasons TDs similar (24, 24 23), as were INTs, though they trended up slightly (17, 18 & 20)...

mcnabb played in 12 games as a rookie (don't think he started all of those), was 8 & 7, 21 & 13 year two & 25 & 12 year three..

flacco as a rookie was 14 & 12, and avoided soph slump with 21 & 12...

carson palmer was in 13 games as a rookie, was 18 & 18, took a big jump year two - 32 & 12, year three was 28 & 13, did regress on INTs year four - 26 & 20...

VY as a rookie was 12-13 (did have 7 rushing TDs), year two was 9 & 17, benched much of year three, returning from exile for the final 10 games last year - 10 & 7...

matt ryan has been very polished in his first two years... as a rookie 16 & 11, and as soph 22 & 14...

cutler played in just five games as a rookie, was 9 & 5, year two 20 & 14, year three 25 & 18, stumbled first year in CHI - 27 & 26...

henne didn't play much as rookie, in 14 games year two was 12 & 14...

as noted upthread, sanchez was 12 & 20 as rookie... he had one 2 INT game, two with 3 INTs, as well as 4 & 5 INT games (17 in five games, 3 in the other 10)... he did seem to improve, with a 4 to 2 TD to INT ratio in three playoff games... in last five games of regular season (he missed a week 14 game against TB in which jets won 26-3), other than a bad 3 INT outing in a loss to ATL, he only had 1 INT in the four other games... in nearly half his games (seven of 15), he didn't throw an INT...

relative to his peers from class of 2009...

#1 overall stafford was 13 & 20 (in 10 games)... in the injury abbreviated rookie season, he had three 2 INT games, and a 3, 4 & 5 INT game... he had two games without an INT...

freeman was 10 & 18... he started in the nine games after the bye... he had two 2 INTs games, two 3 INT & one 5 INT game, and had one game without an INT...

as was pointed out above, sanchez had far less starting experience at the college level than just about all the QBs on this list...

the fact that the jets clearly have a run first philosophy does put a damper on things as far as projecting big passing number improvements in 2010, but it could also help in some ways (as does the great defense) in keeping him in favorable situations (staying on down and distance schedule, playing with a lead, element of surprise, etc.)...

with greater experience and reps he should have upside... braylon edwards will have last year's partial season and a full offseason in jets system, and to develop timing and rapport with sanchez... keller looks like an ascendant TE (TD in all three playoff games)... and between free agency, trade & the draft COMBINED, you could make a strong case that dez bryant and santonio holmes were the two biggest additions at the WR position across the league's landscape in 2010 (and bryant's will presumably be felt even more in future seasons, as he becomes acclimated to the pro game)... imo holmes potential impact is being underrated (possibly due to four game suspension)... he broke out in year four with career highs in receptions (79) and yards (1,248)... the yardage total represented just ONE yard per GAME less than reggie wayne and randy moss, and was more than the likes of NYG steve smith, desean AND vincent jackson, roddy white, brandon marshall, greg jennings and larry fitzgerald... IF edwards and holmes play to their potential, they could be one of the top 5 tandems in the league (or close to)...

additions in football aren't necessarily just additive (in other worlds, holmes presence could soften coverage on edwards and keller)... cotchery will make a fine WR2 for first month (he has started for years, and could probaby start for a number of teams), and could be an outstanding WR3 option... and LT is one of best receiving RBs of his generation...

not sure how things will shake out this year, but longer term (dynasty), i don't think the jets traded up to take sanchez #5 overall just to have him keep handing the ball off most of the time... with the receiving firepower added in the past year, he could take the next step in his development, and throw for 200-225 YPG, raise his TDs to 18-22, and lower his INTs to 12-15... his running ability can be a double edged sword.. he has some tony romo in him and is capable of keeping plays alive with his feet... but also of getting snapped in half, and he needs to be smarter when he takes off, to avoid kill shots (fine line between tougness, courage and stupidity)...

longer term, it will be interesting to see what happens to edwards and holmes beyond this season (say, if they both do well?)... the front office has some key decisions with some other players in line for contracts, even after revis...

for an organization that likes to run, a competent to above average passing game will facilitate a more efficient run game, if defenses are distracted by edwards, holmes, cotchery, keller, LT & co.

* couple recent articles...

sanchez mentored by rich gannon (who praises his work ethic and desire to get better)...

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nf...anchez-sw_N.htm

kirwan on realistic rookie QB expectations, looks at the class of 2009...

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d8...mp;confirm=true

on the magnitude of sanchez's playoff QB rating for a rookie, historically and statistically... the article includes his first two playoff games, after which he had a great (139.4) and average game (60.1), which averaged to 92.2... in the loss to the colts, he slightly bested it with 93.3... was the playoff improvement flukey? i dunno, but he was probably facing a better caliber of team than the regular season average... maybe he should get credit for performing well in pressure situations and under the brighter spotlight and increased scrutiny of the NY market/media? if true that he got better through maturation and development during the course of the season, and starts 2010 like he closed out 2009 (or even improves with an offseason of greater familiarity with the passing offense playbook, upgraded weapons, etc.), he had a TD in all three playoff games and four total... which projects to 20+ TDs in 16 games... article reminded me jets had #1 scoring and run defense and rushing yards (?)... this is a great position to be in for a young QB...

http://wolfpacksteelersfan.wordpress.com/2...layoff-history/

 
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OK, this is starting to bug me.

Why do so many people think Ducasse is the Jets new starting LG? Especially FBG staff?

I read the spotlight. It failed to note that Fanecca was a turnstile in pass protection last year (which is why he was cut) and it states that Ducasse will start. Ducasse has played football for only 6 years, and NEVER as a guard. He has been playing at the tackle position. He will not be ready to make these two transitions in time for week one of the NFL season, changing positions and playing in the NFL.

Look at this thread:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=539577

Slauson is almost certain to start at LG, and when Ducasse is ready, Slauson will likely move to RG unless the Jets decide to re-sign Moore. For more good info on Slauson, see linked thread.

With Fanecca gone, pass protection can only improve. He was that bad. Was it Football Outsiders that ranked him LAST in pass protection of all NFL guards? One of the player ranking sites said that, I can't recall which at the moment, but just from watching the Jets, it comes as no surprise.

Back to Sanchez. His fumbles were avoidable. He was hanging the ball out there even when pressured, something they finally got corrected by the end of the regular season. That problem should also be lessened with Fanecca gone, whether it's Slauson at LG or the very unlikely chance Ducasse beats him out. Sanchez corrected a lot of his problems as the season went along.

Reports say that Sanchez did not know his protection schemes, or the individual blocking assignements of his O linemen last year. Reportedly, he has gotten enough film time now to understand these things. That should allow him to better understand where the pass rush pressure will come from. That hopefully translates to him being better able to both avoid that pressure, and make hot reads when need be. His improvement curve was pretty consistant over his last 5 games, including the playoffs.

Big IF, but if that improvement curve continues, Sanchez should play well enough to not lose games (although I would expect him to have some bad ones) but perhaps even to win some games. No, he won't be asked to win games, but if he continues, he might be good enough to do just that. Could he regress? Sure.... information overlaod is always a possibility too. Thinking too much.

I hated the Sanchez pick last year, but I think I may well have been wrong now. I don't think the Jets will have to win despite Sanchez this year, I don't think he will be the liability he was last year. As far as FF goes, no thank you. Far too many teams that feature the pass with more established, reliable and predictable QB's are out there. Having said that, I think the spotlight article was definitely a glass half full take on it. Quite pessimistic.

EDIT: I suppose I should include my projections.

21 TD pass, 1 rush TD

Yards: 2,600

INT's: 11

 
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Anybody think Mark makes the jump to Big ben, matt ryan 7-10 range tier? So far he has 2, 300 yard passing games plus the jets d looks worse, their running game atrocious, first round pedigree, best weapons in the league (LT, Keller, Plax, Holmes) Im adding all these things up and im seeing 4000 yards, 25 total td's final numbers. Matchups look like shootouts next few weeks ( balt, new england, miami )

 
Anybody think Mark makes the jump to Big ben, matt ryan 7-10 range tier? So far he has 2, 300 yard passing games plus the jets d looks worse, their running game atrocious, first round pedigree, best weapons in the league (LT, Keller, Plax, Holmes) Im adding all these things up and im seeing 4000 yards, 25 total td's final numbers. Matchups look like shootouts next few weeks ( balt, new england, miami )
Yes, I can see it, but it goes against their "formula" for winning. IIRC, Big Ben made the jump when they opened the running game by chucking it, and he put up roughly 32 TDs. It was a shock to everyone, but they only finished 10-6 that year (the next year he tossed 17TDs and they won the whole thing). Basically, they went against what they were built for and it hurt them...the same would have to be true for the Jets. I am not sure that Rex would let it go that way, and in fact, I am sure e is trying to figure out how to get away from these type of shoot outs. Ball control is the easy (and obvious) answer, but I am not sure they can do that as they have in the past. It would not surprise me to see Sanchez at 27 TDs at the end of the year, but if he is, I would expect the team to be out of the playoffs.
 

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