Marshawn Lynch in a dynasty / keeper (1 Viewer)

[scott46984]

How good might he be in 2-3 years? I realize it's somewhat dependent on Buffalo's offensive success as a whole, but what is a realistic expectation for Lynch after his first couple of years?

Trying to determine how likely it is he'll have top 10 potential by then, or whether the relative lack of quality rookie RB's this year makes him seem a bit more attractive than he maybe should be. Thomas probably won't be around to muddy the picture by then, but Wright's success could factor here as well.

Appreciate opinions - I personally think he has borderline top 10 potential by then (in a Maroney, Addai sort of way, since their rankings are as much a result of their situation as their talent). Adrian Peterson, by comparison, appears by all accounts to have enough talent that the situation doesn't seem to matter to people when they project him over the next several years.

I suspect many other dynasty/keeper folks are wrestling with the same decision, so let's discuss.

 

[Angus82]

Being from near Buffalo, I can only add what I have heard. There is plenty of talk about Marshawn being a special player. Not special like the kid who wears the helmet on the short bus, but special like a Marshall, Thurman type triple threat. Before you go off, I personally do not compare rookies to HOF'ers, but some in the media have seen comparable attributes.

To answer your question, it would seem to me that a young stud on an improving team would be the way to go. Even if JP fails out, Edwards has shown promise and the defense seems solid. I have to believe that the line will improve and Lee Evans will keep defenses from putting 8 in the box. My opinion, draft away. This guy will be the real deal. Sorry for the drawn out answer.

 

[scott46984]

Being from near Buffalo, I can only add what I have heard. There is plenty of talk about Marshawn being a special player. Not special like the kid who wears the helmet on the short bus, but special like a Marshall, Thurman type triple threat. Before you go off, I personally do not compare rookies to HOF'ers, but some in the media have seen comparable attributes.

To answer your question, it would seem to me that a young stud on an improving team would be the way to go. Even if JP fails out, Edwards has shown promise and the defense seems solid. I have to believe that the line will improve and Lee Evans will keep defenses from putting 8 in the box. My opinion, draft away. This guy will be the real deal. Sorry for the drawn out answer.

Thanks - you put it well, that's exactly what I was trying to ask. Whether it's possible or likely he'll be a "special" type of player, or just an average starting RB. I tend to agree, but I'm still not sure if it's because of this year's RB draft class being weaker and the fewer choices that weaker class presents.

 

[Tommy Collins]

The front office has spent time attempting to upgrade their OL and grabbing hard working, team players through the draft. It may be a year or two before he explodes, but I definitely think he has top 12 potential. This is a very difficult year for Buffalo with the schedule they have. JP Losman has looked better and better and is finally starting to turn some heads and show the potential the Bills thought he had when they drafted him.

It likely won't be this year, but possibly next and more than likely the year after. It all depends what happens with the Bills throughout the course of this year and next. The OL still isn't totally fixed and they're still lacking a #2 WR. They like the fact that Lynch can catch out of the backfield and believe it will help them spread the field a bit more.

 

[GoldenBear]

I thought you might like the opinion of someone who has watched Lynch play a great deal in the last 3 years (I'm a Cal season ticket holder and have attended all home games in which Lynch has played).

While Lynch has the rare combination of size, speed, and hands that make a great NFL back, he still has a ways to go before he'll have great success in the NFL. A few observations:

- Lynch tends to dance around A LOT looking for holes in the offensive line and he spins far too often. While this may have led to some big plays in college, it ultimately led to quite a few negative yardage carries. NFL coaches won't put up with that.

- While he is big and strong, Lynch never came across as a pound-it-out Red Zone back when he played at Cal; he had quite a few touchdowns, but many were of the 25-yard variety, and most of his TDs were on sweeps, reverses, plays of that nature, which will be spotted and successfully defended by faster linebackers and safeties in the NFL.

- Marshawn was far from injury free when he played at Cal. There were times last season (and the one before if I recall) when one or both of his ankles were sprained, and he missed some time with a broken finger two years ago.

- All that said, I think he's a great pick if the price is right. Two or three years down the road, he could be a very good back.

Oh, and just a word of caution about Buffalo backs. I had McGahee last year and was terribly disappointed with his production, especially in regards to touchdown production. I don't know if it was him, a poor offensive line, an inexperienced QB, or what, but if Buffalo's rushing TD production is anything like last year's, it could be a while before Lynch produces.

-Dan

 

[schooner44]

Oh, and just a word of caution about Buffalo backs. I had McGahee last year and was terribly disappointed with his production, especially in regards to touchdown production. I don't know if it was him, a poor offensive line, an inexperienced QB, or what, but if Buffalo's rushing TD production is anything like last year's, it could be a while before Lynch produces.-Dan

To answer the question about low RB TD productivity in Buffalo, I don't think it effects Lynch much. First, McGahee is anything but a team player and has the maturity level of my 6 year old son. His biggest complaint about playing in Buffalo was that there was no nightlife in Buffalo. Second, the Bills have invested into improving the O-Line and I think they've come a far way but still need a little more help but have one of the best young tackles in the game in Jason Peters. Third, Losman's improved play will benefit the entire offense thus (hopefully) producing more TDs as a whole.Lynch has the chance of being a top 5 back in 3 years but I would likely put him in the 5-10 range.

 

[scott46984]

Great info guys, especially GoldenBear's first hand observations. Sounds like so far, everyone believes that he at least has the potential to be a top 10 back, which is what I'm trying to determine.

If there's any naysayers out there, and I'm sure there are, would like to hear your arguments as well.

 

[BroadwayG]

He could be great. I believe they need a decent WR2 or TE before the offense takes the next step up, but I believe they're right on the cusp of being an excellent fantasy situation again.

 

[Tommy Collins]

He could be great. I believe they need a decent WR2 or TE before the offense takes the next step up, but I believe they're right on the cusp of being an excellent fantasy situation again.

RG/RT & WR #2 are my biggest concerns right now. The left side of the line is nasty and the team is definitely very short when it comes to WR talent. I'm still pretty upset they didn't keep Martin Nance. I thought he would be a possible starter in a couple years for sure.

 

[NeverEnough]

Bump

What's his value so far?

 

[shakeybarn]

He's a modern day (2 years later) Travis Henry. Buffalo needs to fix SO many things, before Lynch is a Top 10 back.. much less the dissappointment history of Cal RBs... Chuck Muncie is the last decent one I can think of.

 

[EBF]

BumpWhat's his value so far?

He looks good out there to me. Not as explosive as Peterson, but he has a better build. He runs low and tough. I like him and think he'll have a long career as a starter. If Buffalo can get some offense going then I can see him consistently being in the top 10 mix. He won't break a lot of long runs, but he's a solid player. I guess you could say he's like Rudi with better hands and a little more speed.

 

[Garts]

He's a modern day (2 years later) Travis Henry. Buffalo needs to fix SO many things, before Lynch is a Top 10 back.. much less the dissappointment history of Cal RBs... Chuck Muncie is the last decent one I can think of.

I'd say Lynch's style is about as far from Henry as you can get...Lynch has BIG-play written all over him and great jukes..Henry kinda just smashes up there.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

Lynch is playing very well. One issue I have is the way they are using him. He is a versatile back, but is getting only a little over a catch a game

 

[D_House]

BumpWhat's his value so far?

Pretty high I'd say. I'm a Bills fan and have watched every game so far. First off, the coaches and management have made the full commitment to making him the feature back in the offense. He has 80 carries compared to 13 by backups Anthony Thomas and Dwayne Wright. He has 85 total touches in 4 games (accounting for 43% of all offensive plays), and the coaching staff is publically stating they want to get him more involved in the passing game. He has been shaky in pass blocking, which is one reason why he hasn't always been in on third downs.So far he has not shown the indecisiveness GoldenBear mentioned, but that could be because he has very little time to try to pick and choose a hole (if there even is a hole). To his credit, he is gaining yards almost in spite of the offensive line, which has not met expectations in the run blocking department, IMO. This has resulted in a pedestrian 3.8 yds/carry. But when you watch these carries, he impresses. He has a funky running style and looks both quick and powerful. The power has been displayed most dramatically on two of his three TD runs, the first a 23 yard scamper which he completed by dragging would-be tacklers into the endzone. And the last, a 10 yd run in where a tremendous second effort after contact carried him into the endzone. He seems to have a nose for the endzone, although it's not clear if he's the dedicated goal line back, since all his TDs came from > 5 yds out. Although given the disparity in carries, and his penchant for punching it in, I can't imagine him being subbed out at the goal line.I think he is a great buy low candidate for redraft leagues, as the defenses the Bills have faced to date are among the stoutest against the run (Pittsburgh, NE). I see Marshawn with another TD on Monday night, but after a bye and a tough matchup against Baltimore, fellow owners may be weary of him and looking to deal.Also, as a Bills fan, and for those in keeper/dynasty leagues, there is reason for even greater optimism concerning Lynch. One, management has shown the congnizance to once and for all recognize and at least attempt to rectify the Bill's longest standing weakness - the offensive line. Secondly, in a season all but lost to injury, there is almost nowhere to go for this team, and therefore Marshawn, but up. He is producing reasonably well despite defenses keyed on him, a passing game that to date has not been consistent or effective, and an offensive line that is still getting used to playing together (3/5 are new starters). And lastly, one positive that should come out of this season for the Bills is a clear starter at QB. The job is Losman's to lose, but if he does falter, Trent Edwards has already shown that he can effectively lead the offense to W's.

 

[NeverEnough]

BumpWhat's his value so far?

Pretty high I'd say. I'm a Bills fan and have watched every game so far. First off, the coaches and management have made the full commitment to making him the feature back in the offense. He has 80 carries compared to 13 by backups Anthony Thomas and Dwayne Wright. He has 85 total touches in 4 games (accounting for 43% of all offensive plays), and the coaching staff is publically stating they want to get him more involved in the passing game. He has been shaky in pass blocking, which is one reason why he hasn't always been in on third downs.So far he has not shown the indecisiveness GoldenBear mentioned, but that could be because he has very little time to try to pick and choose a hole (if there even is a hole). To his credit, he is gaining yards almost in spite of the offensive line, which has not met expectations in the run blocking department, IMO. This has resulted in a pedestrian 3.8 yds/carry. But when you watch these carries, he impresses. He has a funky running style and looks both quick and powerful. The power has been displayed most dramatically on two of his three TD runs, the first a 23 yard scamper which he completed by dragging would-be tacklers into the endzone. And the last, a 10 yd run in where a tremendous second effort after contact carried him into the endzone. He seems to have a nose for the endzone, although it's not clear if he's the dedicated goal line back, since all his TDs came from > 5 yds out. Although given the disparity in carries, and his penchant for punching it in, I can't imagine him being subbed out at the goal line.I think he is a great buy low candidate for redraft leagues, as the defenses the Bills have faced to date are among the stoutest against the run (Pittsburgh, NE). I see Marshawn with another TD on Monday night, but after a bye and a tough matchup against Baltimore, fellow owners may be weary of him and looking to deal.Also, as a Bills fan, and for those in keeper/dynasty leagues, there is reason for even greater optimism concerning Lynch. One, management has shown the congnizance to once and for all recognize and at least attempt to rectify the Bill's longest standing weakness - the offensive line. Secondly, in a season all but lost to injury, there is almost nowhere to go for this team, and therefore Marshawn, but up. He is producing reasonably well despite defenses keyed on him, a passing game that to date has not been consistent or effective, and an offensive line that is still getting used to playing together (3/5 are new starters). And lastly, one positive that should come out of this season for the Bills is a clear starter at QB. The job is Losman's to lose, but if he does falter, Trent Edwards has already shown that he can effectively lead the offense to W's.

I keep going back & forth on giving up SA for him in my keeper league. Guy wants LJ, but I'm not parting with him for Lynch.

 

[Tom Baker]

I keep going back & forth on giving up SA for him in my keeper league. Guy wants LJ, but I'm not parting with him for Lynch.

Alexander for Lynch is a no-brainer, particularly in a keeper league.By the way, after the Ravens in Week Seven, Lynch's schedule gets easier. He has the Dolphins, Browns, and Giants during the fantasy playoffs, while Alexander plays the Ravens Week Sixteen.

 

[BLOX]

Like Adrian Peterson, his youtube video's showed his abilities and they've transferred very well to the NFL.

If you made moves to get him in rookie drafts yous should be very happy with the early results. I'm of the opinion that he's going to be a very solid player in the NFL, not AD good, but his career will be longer.

In dynasty his value is only going to go up. The time to get him is now as he won't be available for a lower price for a long time.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Lynch is playing very well. One issue I have is the way they are using him. He is a versatile back, but is getting only a little over a catch a game

I agree, after all the talk of using him like Marshall...maybe as soon as his pass protection tightens up.